Category: Statistics

Statistics, number-based analysis, etc.

NWMLS: “May was a Grand Slam” …For Home Salespeople

Posted on by The Tim

May market stats have been published by the NWMLS this morning. Here’s their press release: Brokers suggest improving inventory may mean”season of opportunity” for weary house hunters

Pending sales have now been down year-over-year for four months in a row, but for three of those four months, closed sales have increased, which is certainly a bit odd. Perhaps this is indicative of a shift from last year toward fewer pending sales falling through. I’ll see if I can find anything else interesting in the data about that…

Case-Shiller: Seattle Housing Market the Hottest In US

Posted on by The Tim

Let’s have a look at the latest data from the Case-Shiller Home Price Index. According to March data that was released this morning, Seattle-area home prices were:

Up 2.6 percent February to March
Up 12.3 percent year-over-year.
Up 12.7 percent from the July 2007 peak

Over the same period last year prices were up 2.4 percent month-over-month and year-over-year prices were up 10.9 percent.

Seattle home prices as measured by Case-Shiller shot up yet again to a new all-time high in March, and let the nation in month-over-month and year-over-year price gains for the second month in a row.

The near hockey-stick shape of some of these home price charts is starting to concern me.

Sales Fall Off In Cheap King County Neighborhoods

Posted on by The Tim

It’s been a few months since we took a look at the in-county breakdown data from the NWMLS to see how the sales mix shifted around the county. I like to keep an eye on this not only to see how individual neighborhoods are doing but also to see how the sales mix shift affects the overall county-wide median price.

In order to explore this concept, we break King County down into three regions, based on the NWMLS-defined “areas”:

  • low end: South County (areas 100-130 & 300-360)
  • mid range: Seattle / North County (areas 140, 380-390, & 700-800)
  • high end: Eastside (areas 500-600)

Here’s where each region’s median prices came in as of April data:

  • low end: $330,000-$520,000
  • mid range: $559,950-$964,250
  • high end: $699,475-$2,203,000

First up, let’s have a look at each region’s (approximate) median price (actually the median of the medians for each area within the region)…

NWMLS: Home Prices Hit New Highs, Listings Still Scarce

Posted on by The Tim

April market stats have been published by the NWMLS yesterday. Here’s their press release: Shrinking inventory putting “stranglehold” on sales

You can practically hear OB Jacobi and J. Lennox Scott drooling over all those sweet, sweet high commissions. At least George Moorhead seems relatively level-headed, pointing out that prices might be getting a bit out of control.

Pending sales have been down year-over-year for three months in a row, and now closed sales have finally declined year-over-year as well. That said, even with the drop, closed sales in April came out higher than the April level in thirteen of the last twenty-four years. Given the continued extreme shortage of inventory, it’s no surprise then that strong demand + very low supply = surging prices.