For our next forecast, let’s refer to a dataset that we’ve only gone to once before on Seattle Bubble: Radar Logic’s Residential Property Index. Radar Logic analyzes home sales and produces a running index of sale prices in the Seattle metro area in terms of dollars per square foot. Here are our basic assumptions for…
Category: Statistics
Statistics, number-based analysis, etc.
Bottom-Calling: Inventory-Based Forecast
Long-time readers may recall Deejayoh’s inaugural Seattle Bubble article from June 2007: Why Inventory Matters. In it, he postulated that the Seattle-area Case-Shiller Home Price Index could be relatively accurately predicted fourteen months in advance by looking at year-over-year house inventory on the MLS. Let’s extend Deejayoh’s analysis fourteen months into the future to see…
Bottom-Calling Week on Seattle Bubble
There’s been a lot of talk lately about whether or not the Seattle-area real estate market is “at bottom.” Before I go any further, I should point out that as a practical matter, I think that it doesn’t really matter where the absolute bottom is. As I have always said: If you find a home…
Puget Sound Foreclosures Set New Records in January
Here’s your January update on Foreclosure activity in King, Snohomish, and Pierce counties. First up, the Notice of Trustee Sale summary: January 2008 King: 915 NTS, up 113% YOY Snohomish: 463 NTS, up 95% YOY Pierce: 681 NTS, up 69% YOY First let’s look at the percentage of households that received a Notice of Trustee…
Crash Comparisons: Job Losses & Dow Jones
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi recently posted an alarming chart of job losses that has been making the rounds. What jumps out to me when I look at her chart is the fact that the y-axis shows raw number of jobs rather than a percentage loss, and therefore fails to account for the increased size of…