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Tag: predictions

Bottom-Calling: Dollars per Square Foot Linear Forecast

Posted on February 17, 2009July 30, 2009 by The Tim

For our next forecast, let’s refer to a dataset that we’ve only gone to once before on Seattle Bubble: Radar Logic’s Residential Property Index. Radar Logic analyzes home sales and produces a running index of sale prices in the Seattle metro area in terms of dollars per square foot. Here are our basic assumptions for…

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Bottom-Calling: Inventory-Based Forecast

Posted on February 16, 2009July 30, 2009 by The Tim

Long-time readers may recall Deejayoh’s inaugural Seattle Bubble article from June 2007: Why Inventory Matters. In it, he postulated that the Seattle-area Case-Shiller Home Price Index could be relatively accurately predicted fourteen months in advance by looking at year-over-year house inventory on the MLS. Let’s extend Deejayoh’s analysis fourteen months into the future to see…

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Bottom-Calling Week on Seattle Bubble

Posted on February 16, 2009July 30, 2009 by The Tim

There’s been a lot of talk lately about whether or not the Seattle-area real estate market is “at bottom.” Before I go any further, I should point out that as a practical matter, I think that it doesn’t really matter where the absolute bottom is. As I have always said: If you find a home…

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Ron Sims: HUD Deputy Secretary

Posted on February 2, 2009April 1, 2009 by The Tim

Recall King County Executive Ron Sims’ “tweet” back in September: By early next year, many will come to regret their decision to delay buying a home. Now word has it that this housing sage will be heading to DC to take the number 2 position at the Department of Housing and Urban Development. Perhaps his…

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Matthew Gardner Predictions vs. Reality

Posted on February 2, 2009February 1, 2009 by The Tim

Incredible. Even with the major continuing job losses and home prices in unabated decline, Matthew Gardner continues to spread the word of a recovery for Seattle in 2009. Here are a couple of slides from a PowerPoint presentation Matthew Gardner used in a class for local real estate agents on the 19th: Jobs will lead…

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