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SunTzu - You are correct about Raw Land prices declining significantly lately. One of my good friends is a Commerical Appraiser that deals with quirky properties. He recently stumbled upon an area that is going to be annexed into a suburb city (no…
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SunTzu - You are incorrect! Countrywide can borrow from the FED (Atlanta FED) and has almost maxed out the amount they can borrow, there was even a huge article about it and WaMu borrowing rates in the WSJ several weeks ago.
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sniglet - Clearly you have not read anything that I initially wrote. The area that Im buying hasnt had above 5% appreciation over the past several years, thus no bubble and no "the world is ending depreciation". This region is growing and prices a…
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Thank you all for your comments! Another thing about Colfax is that the price of wheat has skyrocketed and many more people have a significant larger income and bonuses in the farming industry. carlislematthew - I estimated about a 5% vacancy rat…
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Markor - You are right that if the Cash Flow on a large value is so small is a waste of time, however why would it matter what its worth if your making money on it. Actually wouldnt you want it to be worth more since a 3 to 5% appreciation (in this…
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Deejayoh - I used to work for WAMU in the Operational Risk Dept so I think I know more about them than you do! Yes, WAMU does sell off mortgages, but it was their correspondant loans (ones they were the underwriters for other mortgage producers). T…
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Companies like WAMU do not sell any mortgages of current customers, thus if they want to negotiate the terms on these loans it doesnt hurt anyone else. Im sure many larger lenders keep a good portion on their books. This means that maybe they are …
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DJO - I do have some information that is probably not public, thus not allowed to purchase stock in WM right now...once it becomes public, you do the math. It could be good news as well, depends on how the negotiations go (its related to the NYC ap…
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AwaySooner - Im not allowed to short or buy puts against client accounts that I work on...too much inside info on them. I can make purchases and sales of stock as long as I dont "market time" my decisions. Not that I have an extreme detailed info …
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I used to work for WaMu and now work for a company that deals with WaMu (they are my largest client, not that it matters to me since im Salary), but from what I do know is that the situation will get much worse before it gets better! I will probabl…
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Banks wont outright forgive a dollar % of a loan. However they will negotiate the interest rate. Lets say you have a subprime loan at 8.5% and had not made your payments for two months. The bank may determine that if your house is worth relativel…
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When I first heard that a small bank over in the Bremerton area got hit I got worried for a moment, then realized that it wasnt one of my clients (as my two small Seattle area Bank clients dont even do subprime loans).
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mike2 - Thats what Homeownwers Insurance is for. So the townhouse owners got paid off by the insurance companies (depending on the exact cause of loss, they might not have depending on the exact reason for the losses). Then they pay off their mort…
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TJ_98370 - Actually Bill Gate's salary lowers the average pay at MSFT because he is paid an annual salary below $1M and does not accept stock options anymore. I used to work at Boeing and know several people working on the 787 (and other busy pro…
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Tim - Hope you got the article I sent you and let me know if you need anymore WSJ articles, you have my email address. A good friend did an internship in Manhattan this summer and rented a crappy rundown 1.5 br apt 2 blocks from Time Square for $…
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DJO - wasnt trying to say that the market is strong, just that it isnt as weak as most people here thought it would be. The market still has postive appreciation (0.2% for July). Overall Im basically saying that the market is weakening, but not ex…
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DJO - I didnt summarize the article, just wrote one sentence. You are right about condos coming onto the market will increase the rental inventory, however with anything it will take awhile for them to flow through the market. Just like the slow…
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acurawsu - You are right that it is a good book, however it was written by an Economist (as in too much technical jargon, even though I enjoy economics). I met Robert Shiller when I was at WSU and got him to sign my book sitting right above me...Th…
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What I was trying to say earlier was that if other super heated areas (LA, SF, SD, LV...) went up by 100% over the past 5 years and Seattle only goes up 50%, then our decline in housing prices and % of forclosures will most likely be about 50% lower…
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Speaking about jobs, the new company that I work for 6 blocks from my condo downtown Seattle has about 700 employees in the Seattle office (with offices in every major city in the world). We cant find enough qualified people to hire. Right now we …
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perfectfire - I changed my name from "financeguru" about 4 months ago... The whole forclosure business in Seattle wont be quite as bad as the super frothy markets. We went up about 50% less over the past five years than the super overheated mark…
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aldreth - The official definitioin of a recession is 2 consecutive quarers of negative GDP growth...since we are still having positive economic growth your statment is incorrect. I will state that the odds of a recession are increasing, yet the w…
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Honestly, I did it more as a joke, lol. The overall volume on this blog has declined significantly. You would think as the Seattle market slows the volume would pick up...
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Koolaid - First of all Im not a troll, as Tim has defined it since I have been around for more than a few days. Second, my views have not changed and have been saying that the markets will soften and will slow, yet not be nearly as pessimistic as m…
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Alan - Thank you for grammer school...as this is the Seattle Bubble PC Forum page. As long as you understood what I meant in what I wrote you should be fine.
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I forgot to put in a comma, so shoot me... "I to, pay more than shop there!!! " rose colored koolaid has a good point about rural walmarts in small towns...it is one area that they kill business, however other small companies like Target and Shop…
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All Walmarts are not equal. I agree with most of the posters and wouldnt step foot in a Walmart near a big city, yet when you get out in the rural areas of Eastern Wa or Northern ID it seems the product quality and selection gets better. They also…
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Its so true! As everyone in America gets 5 weeks of vacation per year, thats on top of the 2 weeks of sick pay and 2 weeks of holidays per year...oh wait, what are you telling me, thats france. Oops wrong country, lol
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The next excuse for taking out a 2/28 subprime mortgage is: The terrorists made me do it! This is how they decided to undermine the US economy by forcing us to spend too much money and over lend to homeowners. (sarcasm).
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perfectfire - If I were you I wouldnt start freaking out over your MM fund having 2.3% of its assets in CDO debt. Afterall it doesnt mention that its subprime debt and most MM funds require at least a BBB+ rating or higher on all investments (which…