Let’s have a look at the latest data from the Case-Shiller Home Price Index. According to October data,
Down 1.3% September to October.
Down 4.1% YOY.
Down 25.6% from the July 2007 peak
Last year prices rose 0.2% from September to October and year-over-year prices were down 12.4%.
October’s data marked a new post-peak low point for Seattle home prices, which have now “rewound” to roughly February of 2005. Prices are down 2.7% since July, and down 4.3% since their late-2009 tax credit mini-peak.
Here’s an interactive graph of all twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities, courtesy of Tableau Software (check and un-check the boxes on the right):
As the 20-city composite index drops back into negative YOY territory, only four cities are still above where they were this time last year: Los Angeles, San Diego, San Francisco, and Washington DC.
In October, thirteen of the twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities experienced smaller year-over-year drops (or saw year-over-year increases) than Seattle:
- Washington, DC at +3.7%
- Los Angeles at +3.3%
- San Diego at +3.0%
- San Francisco at +2.2%
- Boston at -0.2%
- Denver at -1.8%
- New York at -1.9%
- Cleveland at -2.6%
- Minneapolis at -2.8%
- Dallas at -3.1%
- Miami at -3.4%
- Las Vegas at -3.6%
- Tampa at -3.6%
Falling faster than Seattle as of October: Charlotte, Phoenix, Portland, Detroit, Atlanta, and Chicago.
Hit the jump for the rest of our monthly Case-Shiller charts, including the interactive chart of the raw Case-Shiller HPIs.
Here’s the interactive chart of the raw HPI for all twenty cities through October.
Here’s an update to the peak-decline graph, inspired by a graph created by reader CrystalBall. This chart takes the twelve cities whose peak index was greater than 175, and tracks how far they have fallen so far from their peak. The horizontal axis shows the total number of months since each individual city peaked.
In the thirty-nine months since the price peak in Seattle prices have declined 25.6%, a new high.
For posterity, here’s our offset graph—the same graph we post every month—with L.A. & San Diego time-shifted from Seattle & Portland by 17 months. All four cities continued to fall in October. Year-over-year, Portland came in at -5.2%, Los Angeles at +3.3%, and San Diego at +3.0%.
I think this graph is still worth posting if only to display how the government’s massive intervention in the market screwed with the natural flow, causing all the markets to rise simultaneously, but in the end they are all turning back down.
Note: This graph is not intended to be predictive. It is for entertainment purposes only.
Check back tomorrow for a post on the Case-Shiller data for Seattle’s price tiers.
(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 12.28.2010)
RE: pfft @ 96 – RE: pfft @ 96 –
Not abandoning, just pushing back the dates. I don’t know of any bears that have changed their minds about the ultimate outcome- Eleua, myself, many other early bears have adjusted time lines however. When someone can show me politically feasible math that confirms a way out of the box I’ll change my mind. Until then, it’s like the dot-com bust- amazement that people are still buying into or taking advantage of it, but understanding there still isn’t any real substance.
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RE: Blake @ 99 – Wheres This Overtaxed thing coming from??
Wheres this OVERTAXED Thing coming from??
Why is that our Government can’t pay its bills “with what it collects, according to my estimates they would be shaking us down if they figured we needed to pay, then again some politicians would be unelected, right (so that won’t work)? If you made the statement that our Government wasn’t managing what it took in very well, I would agree.
However when the money they take in they are not paying there bills with it?– then again thats what the Chinese are Made for, “Right.. we send them BOAT FULLS Of IOU’s in return we get lots of Dvd players/Tv’s etc.
Wait till we pay those IOU’s off, With What Junk Bonds?? maybe we can Sell California off?… imagine having a printing press and issuing all softs of financial instruments tied to promises that Us the American People will pay you back, maybe we will however when you have the reserve currency of the world, (For Now Anyways)…………….. This Can Go On and On… I don’t care to go any further.
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RE: Scotsman @ 101 –
Its always the Time Line… hardest thing to figure
There is something coming that will be worse than the Great Depression… another World War~!!
However I don’t Know if its going to happen tomorrow or 150 years from now… Guarantee it will come though, I would bet a Billion Dollars on It.. Of course my timeline is SO LONG “I cant loose. Anybody want to take me up on my Bet- I will give you my checking account number, routing etc. and hold the funds Until it comes time to pay out the winner.
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RE: Ron Nelson @ 102 –
Re: “Wheres this OVERTAXED Thing coming from??”
Where were you the last 5 weeks? Not listening to the TV and radio…??
IF those rates had gone up from 36 to 39.6% we were going to have a full on revolt of the elites on our hands! Sad because if we could just push the rates on upper incomes back to where they were under Nixon it would wipe out most fo the deficit! Of course that is fantasy and, besides, the elites would be so discouraged they would just stop working! ;-)
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RE: Ron Nelson @ 102 –
>> “Wait till we pay those IOU’s off, With What Junk Bonds?? maybe we can Sell California off?… imagine having a printing press and issuing all softs of financial instruments tied to promises that Us the American People will pay you back, maybe we will however when you have the reserve currency of the world…”
I’ll never understand so many Americans complaining about this…. You should be laughing. We are the reserve currency and we “own” the printing press and eventually we will monetize those debts and the Chinese and others will watch their holdings dwindle!! Of course “we” also sold them and others a trillion or so in bad MBS securities for which they lost hundreds of billions of $… but they thought those were AAA or Aaa. With the federal reserve notes they are fully aware that the currency could be debased at any time. We should be laughing because 20 years from now we will look back at these times fondly(!) If you want to visit Europe, Japan or China I suggest you do it in the next 10 years…. or start bankrolling some yuan.
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Believe Me-
Back in 2003 I started Investing In hard Gold/Silver (its in a vault- don’t bother looking me up)..
Most my investments Were In The Metals from 2003 onwards, I did some investments when the market hit about 7,000.. this is someone who in the past invested heavily in the markets.. My favorites Yes- Phillip Morris, RJ Reynolds back in 2000 when everyone was in Technology, thats when Phillip Morris and RJ was getting a lot of flack and lawsuits from the smokers…. get this at 17.00 for RJ and Phillip Morris was at 19.00– RJ Had something like a 19% dividend and Phillip Morris had a very respectful 17% — all this from someone who just about flunked english, and diagnosed ADD… i’m not all that smart, however for some reason “I seem to have a knack for being in the right places.
My attention span is not that great so its hard for me to read for long periods- I seem to understand just enough, it doesn’t seem that hard however you can not be right all the time, arrogance- (lets just say it will humble you when you fight the forces of the marketplace)… however on the poker table i’m pretty scary up to about 3-4 hours, I have won about a dozen or so poker tournaments. Just good judge of people and good knack of bluffing from time to time. We all have our Strengths and Weaknesses, Writing is not a Strength for me.
My point is that this stuff financially is so complex, I don’t fully understand all the complexities. I try to get the Big Picture, however its hard… I thought since about 2006 that we would have about a 50% haircut in prices by now, I was right about 50% in certain markets 50% has come and gone, however Seattle has yet to see it- I still think 50% is coming, its the timeline thats the hardest to figure.. also Government intervention is hard to predict, the interest rates and modifications are hard to figure.
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By pfft @ 73:
Oh no, you did not just say that. At this point you must reveal whether you are a troll or a fool. I have to know.
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RE: Ron Nelson @ 102 –
“maybe we can Sell California off?”
There it is, proof you’re a nut. Everyone knows CA is already promised to Mexico. Restitution, or something.
P.S.- what’s with the random capitalization? Are you the anti-Pfft or something?
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RE: Herman @ 107 –
Don’t point out to him that the interest earned is currently less than the inflation rate on the shorter term notes. What would Krugman say?
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My Big Investment Mistake:
I had my finger On the Short Button On my etrade account.. its one of those moments you wish you could have back, “in hindsight.
get this It would of been possibly my best investment:
Shorting “Countrywide at the 40s– I couldn’t finish touching that button… I was going to short Countrywide for several thousand shares in the 40s… however I couldn’t push the short button. In a matter of weeks “Countrywide” we all know what happened to them…. Penny Stock.
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RE: Scotsman @ 108 –
How about Government takeover (police action) of Microsoft, Apple & Berkshire Hathaway
Use them to pay off the National Dept… after all Gates and Buffett are already promising to give most everything up already. Steve Jobs might have a fit though….
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RE: Scotsman @ 108 –
Afterall….. Why not?
Didn’t you see the Movie 2012??
Where California fell into the Sea..
Why not get rid of our weakest link, were only one major earthquake from
Loosing them anyways.
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By Blake @ 99:
I think you’re referring to the FICA receipts that the government “loaned” to itself via an accounting trick to offset part of the government’s other spending.
There are two problems with your position. Number one, the money is gone. Your government spent it on things that the electorate wanted (in other words, YOU spent it by matter of proxy). Your government used the FICA receipts to claim that its deficit was not as deep as it really was, with an expectation that your children’s government would be good for the money when it was time to pay itself back. This is not the case. The money is gone, and you spent it.
Number two, by saying “renege” you assume that there is some guarantee to you that was granted in exchange for your FICA payments. This is also not true. There is no obligation to pay you anything. There is only a policy that is in effect here and now, and that policy is subject to change. You have no recourse.
The only thing that cannot be changed is the past. Policies at one time paid people generously under FICA, collected money under FICA, spent the extra FICA collections on lots of other things, and has left your government and all those policies in an unsustainable situation.
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RE: Scotsman @ 108 –
Is your Point that California is already part of MEXICO??
If thats your point I concur.. “I agree- I hear the welfare offices are also the voting booths… I don’t know this for a fact, Just a Rumor.
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RE: Ron Nelson @ 112 –
“Afterall….. Why not?”
Well, for one thing, all our movies would have to come from either Bollywood or France, and those subtitles can be hard work. Oh, and ponder this- iPod or Zune? Ha- see, even you can now see the folly in your suggestion. ;-) And if you have to google “zune” I win hands down.
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RE: Scotsman @ 108 –
P.S.- what’s with the random capitalization?
I flunked Grammar… Seriously- third grade teacher put me on the fast track in
the corner of the room, told me she gave up on me…
“She said I give up on you- you will never
amount to anything… ( I never believed her though )
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RE: Ron Nelson @ 116 –
Fair enough- I flunked Bar-B-Que and will never be a real man. Thank god my wife can cook better than just about anyone except maybe Ira, or so I suppose. It’s funny what really counts over time.
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RE: Scotsman @ 115 –
You think the Chinese would possible Merge Microsoft and Apple??- why have both right, Zune and the Ipod?
Keep the Microsoft Operating systems/Office/Xbox add the Ipod/iphone and ipad and now we have 1# big winner.. then the Chinese could charge whatever they want.
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anyone here have the New Windows phone?
I don’t know anyone with it.. take that back- couple people that work for Microsoft.
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By Hugh Dominic @ 49:
The thing that scares me most, is that “someone else” you speak of isn’t necessarily an American citizen. A significant portion of the government loot winds up overseas inflating foreign economies. On top of that, U.S. corporations provide these economies with cash injections and new jobs. Meanwhile U.S. job growth continues to be lethargic while economists claim the U.S. is doing great, “just look at the stock market.” But if U.S. corporations are piling the majority of their investments into other countries, what good does it do U.S. citizens who don’t own their stock.
The only thing that comes to mind and fits that bill is buried gold. I’m not much of a burying these days though.
Right now I’m holding some cash, some metals, some energy, some Canadian banks, some agriculture, some blue chips with overseas exposure, some emerging markets, etc. I typically don’t take the buy and hold approach unless I’m primarily in for a dividend payment. I try to take profits on the up cycles and buy into the dips. I can’t stand the feeling of being in a market that’s correcting 10%.
I’m not trying to get rich off of this. I’m just trying to protect myself through what amounts to gambling. But as you mention, doing nothing is perhaps a greater gamble.
We are witnessing the occurrence of a new paradigm that few voters recognize, acknowledge, or admit to. Thus, the looting continues. Savers must be extremely careful how they proceed. Some asset classes will soar, while others will bust. Buy and hold is most likely dead. One must study prolifically and remain nimble with his positions. It requires a lot of work and a lot of faith in one’s abilities. So far I can’t complain, but who knows about the future? This game is tricky and dangerous.
“The trend helps explain why unemployment remains high, edging up to 9.8 percent last month, even though companies are performing well: All but 4 percent of the top 500 U.S. corporations reported profits this year, and the stock market is close to its highest point since the 2008 financial meltdown.
Yet, jobs are going elsewhere. The Economic Policy Institute, a Washington think tank, says U.S. companies have created 1.4 million jobs overseas this year, compared with fewer than 1 million here. The additional 1.4 million jobs would have lowered the U.S. unemployment rate to 8.9 percent, says Robert Scott, the institute’s senior international economist.
“There’s a huge difference between what is good for American companies versus what is good for the American economy,” Scott said.
American jobs have been moving overseas for more than two decades. Those jobs, however, have become more sophisticated — semiconductors and software, not toys and clothes.
And many of the products being made overseas aren’t coming back to the United States. Demand has grown dramatically this year in emerging markets such as India, China and Brazil.
Meanwhile, consumer demand in the United States has been subdued. Despite a strong holiday shopping season, Americans are spending 18 percent less than before the recession on furniture, and 10 percent less on electronics, according to MasterCard’s SpendingPulse.
“Companies will go where there are fast-growing markets and big profits,” said Jeffrey Sachs, globalization expert and economist at Columbia University. “What’s changed is that companies today are getting top talent in emerging economies, and the U.S. has to really watch out.”"
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/nationworld/2013789073_foreignjobs29.html
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RE: Herman @ 113 – FICA is nothing more than a tax perpetrated mainly upon the lower and the middle class incomes. FICA stops on incomes over $106,800. The wealthy also get to exclude paying FICA on their capital gains and dividend and interest incomes which are an extensive part of their incomes. FICA on real estate profits? Fuggedaboutit. The Obama bogus debt panel suggested raising the retirement age again. Social Security can be fixed easily with some minor fixes. We have about thirty years to fix it…well….unless the government can’t repay the money it borrowed from it…….FICA payments are a cash cow for the spenders in CONgress. Why didn’t they just suggest charging FICA on ALL incomes? Can’t do that cuz it might make a slect group upset? Hehehe…. FICA is just an additional way to extract monies from the masses while a carrot is dangled over their heads until they reach the grave. Did you know when social security was originally designed the average wage earner died before reaching retirement age? Some retirement program….oops you died before you could collect your benefits that we have already spent on boondoogles and lining the pockets of our friends…..so sorry. For a real clue as to how the minds of Senators work when they choose to screw lessor incomes versus the wealthy while crying wolf I give you loon Senator Alan Simpson:
http://fdlaction.firedoglake.com/2010/06/17/alan-simpson-cutting-social-security-benefits-to-take-care-of-the-lesser-people-in-society/
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RE: Jonness @ 120 – Well said. Savers need to be wise with their savings right now. Leaving it parked in a US Dollar bank account is risky in a system bent on destroying the dollar.
US economic competitiveness and transformation as you mention is yet another issue. The dollar can only be worth as much as the US economy will justify. As the economy goes, so goes the value of your savings.
US policy is anti-transformative under Obama. In an effort to prop up the weak and cushion the impact, the US is losing precious years when its capital should instead be driving changes to competitive and novel industries. So we wallow in debt in an economy that loses ground each year to more dynamic emerging nations.
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RE: Jonness @ 120 – Buried gold? You do realize in the 1930′s the gubermint confiscated all gold except commercial users? Pretty hard to trade with contraband. Do you realize that the 1930′s scared the public so much that many just buried their money or hid it for decades instead of collecting interest in a bank? I crossed paths with an elderly couple(victims of the depression) in the late 1970′s in Lacey that were still doing that(buried in the back yard) with substantial assets. Never collecting a nickel in interest while inflation destroyed their honey pot. Fear really is a strong motivating factor.
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By Herman @ 107:
Haha! He has proven time after time that he is a fool. Some things can’t be changed. Pfft…a constant of the universe? Yikes!
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By Ron Nelson @ 110:
Don’t feel bad. I think we all have those experiences. There’s something about playing with real money that makes doing the right thing a lot tougher than just talking about it while you’re at a party. If I could trade like I can rant at parties, I’d be richer than Bill Gates. And that’s why I’m a wage-class slave and will always remain so. :)
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RE: Ron Nelson @ 110 –
I was shorting WaMu, AIG, and some homebuilders through 2007… I couldn’t keep up the positions and gave up by 2008! The markets can remain irrational longer than you can stay solvent… I think Keynes said that.
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By Pegasus @ 123:
I’ve read about that. Personally, I quit burying things right after the government put me in jail for it. These days, all my transactions are traceable on paper. :)
Interesting. I guess they buried cash instead of gold due to the illegality of owning gold and the growing value of the dollar in the deflationary environment of the Great Depression? Otherwise they probably would have done pretty well with that strategy.
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RE: Jonness @ 120 –
re: “A significant portion of the government loot winds up overseas inflating foreign economies.”
>> Typical of a late Empire being looted… Washington and New York are quite similar to Amsterdam, Madrid and London in their similar periods. Wasn’t it interesting that so much of the bailout $ went to foreign banks. (When Congress at first voted down TARP in Sept’08 and the market crashed another 500 pts, Sen. McCain suspended his campaign to fly to Washington… but he had time to meet with Lady de Rothschild in New York and reassure her that her husbands private bank would get the US funds they needed.)
re “The only thing that comes to mind and fits that bill is buried gold. I’m not much of a burying these days though. Right now I’m holding some cash, some metals, some energy, some Canadian banks, some agriculture, some blue chips with overseas exposure, some emerging markets, etc.”
>> Yes, to all of the above. Gold had risen to 40% of my holdings so i started selling it at $1400 to 25% of my portfolio. Seems bubbly, but Ritholtz and others say it has a ways to go. Problem is that all the $$ will inflate bubbles all over the world… I have commodities (FFGCX), big blue chips, consumer staples, canada fund, latin am fund…SE asian fund.
re: “We are witnessing the occurrence of a new paradigm that few voters recognize, acknowledge, or admit to. Thus, the looting continues.”
>> Yes… it’ll be a lot like the 70s, but different! :-)
I think ’08 was just the preview and the worst is ahead. Sequels are always worse…
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RE: Jonness @ 127 –
re: “I guess they buried cash instead of gold… ”
I was waiting tables in the late 70s in the Midwest and this guy handed me a $100 bill that looked completely counterfeit to me. I ran into the kitchen to look at it closely… It was an odd color and looked very strange… it was printed in the 1920s!! I always wondered where that bill had been all those years…
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By Scotsman @ 117:
I’m not that great of a cook. Some things I make are insanely good, like BBQ,( smoked in a smoker) pies, mac n cheese, lasagne, but baking bread has always failed me, and cooking a good steak is only something I can do by accident.
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RE: Pegasus @ 124 –
By pfft @ 73: the government pays you interest when you give them your money.
… in pft’s defense, I think he meant that when you loan the govt money they pay you interest.
In ref to FICA and the Social Security insanity…
Yes, FICA taxes are regressive and after the Greenspan Commission double the tax rate in the early 80s, we knew they were doing it to help finance the record setting deficits of the 1980s and soak up the US bonds. But the US bonds that the Social Security trust fund holds are paying decent interest… 3-6% mostly, much higher than inflation
http://www.ssa.gov/cgi-bin/investheld.cgi
They are “guaranteed” only in the sense that anything is guaranteed by the government. You think PIMCO is insolvent? They have a lot of US bonds. I’m not sure what the deficit “hawks” and such are after… Do they want the government to default on the bonds held in trust? What do they think that would do to US bond holders (banks) and US interest rates? And keep in mind that foreigners hold only 25-30% of our debt…
I’m not sure what the $ will be worth when I receive some payments down the road, but it is insane for the rightwingers to pretend that the Social Security Trust fund is broke. It holds US Treasury bonds, just like PIMCO and the major banks.
btw: the Chinese have cut their holdings of US bonds since ’09… lookit the stupid British lapdogs! (I guess they’re building their $ holdings so they can defend the pound?)
http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Documents/mfh.txt
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By Ron Nelson @ 110:
I much prefer buying put options to shorting a stock. Shorting a stock scares the heck out of me. With a put option, i know what my max loss will be.
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By drshort @ 132:
I almost never short a stock, but I’ve got a system that hasn’t failed me yet:
When naming rights for a sports stadium are announced, short the stock. They almost always go down. I did a fairly extensive study of this, and 19 out of 20 companies with stadiums newly named after them were down at least 20% within a couple of months after getting the naming rights. I’ve played it three times with success each time. But that’s the only time I’ll short a stock.
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Nice analysis,
When they say home prices fall below recession levels in cities like Seattle, this is not too surprising. Seattle was not hit during the recession as hard as another major markets. Our prices have dropped, but probably not as low as next markets. Basically, it looks like we are playing catch up now. Also, was not California hardest hit during the recession? So, that also leads me to believe that any sort of gain – minute or massive – is fine believeable. Once you have hit the lowest of the low, any amount of growth will be reflected in an incredibly positive light.
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RE: Blurtman @ 70 –
The Good Hands People – http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1488719/posts
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according to the internet, it’s not illegal to own gold since 1975.
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RE: Dirty Renter @ 135 – And so BAC (Countrywide) was acting to avenge the New Orleans claimants??? The “Yes, someone stole from him, but he was a bum anyway.” is an irrelevant viewpoint, but not uncommon. There are other injured parties besides Allstate versus BAC (Countrywide). Have a look under a freeway overpass, or look at the lines when job openings are posted. Or seniors who get nothing on their savings acounts. Or folks whose wealth was destroyed.
Frankly, I don’t give a hoot if Goldman’s rips off Merril Lynch who is ripping of Cedit Suisse. But when their greed driven fraud causes worldwide injury, and when they come to citizens begging for a bailout so they can continue to pay bonuses, please lets uphold the law and jail these scumbags.
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RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 85 – Be careful with the use of the word “or”. After all “or” in common language usually implies “either .. or”, also called an exclusive or, while my mathematical background makes me understand it as an inclusive or, where a proper answer to “Do you rent or do you own?” would be “yes.”. Maybe I should start harassing people about the use of the word “or” when used in logical reasoning.
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[...] all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. Possibly Related Posts:Case-Shiller: Seattle Home Prices Hit New Post-Peak LowCase-Shiller: Seattle Home Prices Hit New Low in Nov.Case-Shiller: Seattle Prices Headed South for [...]
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