Let’s have a look at the latest data from the Case-Shiller Home Price Index. According to October data,
Down 1.3% September to October.
Down 4.1% YOY.
Down 25.6% from the July 2007 peak
Last year prices rose 0.2% from September to October and year-over-year prices were down 12.4%.
October’s data marked a new post-peak low point for Seattle home prices, which have now “rewound” to roughly February of 2005. Prices are down 2.7% since July, and down 4.3% since their late-2009 tax credit mini-peak.
Here’s an interactive graph of all twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities, courtesy of Tableau Software (check and un-check the boxes on the right):
As the 20-city composite index drops back into negative YOY territory, only four cities are still above where they were this time last year: Los Angeles, San Diego, San Francisco, and Washington DC.
In October, thirteen of the twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities experienced smaller year-over-year drops (or saw year-over-year increases) than Seattle:
- Washington, DC at +3.7%
- Los Angeles at +3.3%
- San Diego at +3.0%
- San Francisco at +2.2%
- Boston at -0.2%
- Denver at -1.8%
- New York at -1.9%
- Cleveland at -2.6%
- Minneapolis at -2.8%
- Dallas at -3.1%
- Miami at -3.4%
- Las Vegas at -3.6%
- Tampa at -3.6%
Falling faster than Seattle as of October: Charlotte, Phoenix, Portland, Detroit, Atlanta, and Chicago.
Hit the jump for the rest of our monthly Case-Shiller charts, including the interactive chart of the raw Case-Shiller HPIs.
Here’s the interactive chart of the raw HPI for all twenty cities through October.
Here’s an update to the peak-decline graph, inspired by a graph created by reader CrystalBall. This chart takes the twelve cities whose peak index was greater than 175, and tracks how far they have fallen so far from their peak. The horizontal axis shows the total number of months since each individual city peaked.
In the thirty-nine months since the price peak in Seattle prices have declined 25.6%, a new high.
For posterity, here’s our offset graph—the same graph we post every month—with L.A. & San Diego time-shifted from Seattle & Portland by 17 months. All four cities continued to fall in October. Year-over-year, Portland came in at -5.2%, Los Angeles at +3.3%, and San Diego at +3.0%.
I think this graph is still worth posting if only to display how the government’s massive intervention in the market screwed with the natural flow, causing all the markets to rise simultaneously, but in the end they are all turning back down.
Note: This graph is not intended to be predictive. It is for entertainment purposes only.
Check back tomorrow for a post on the Case-Shiller data for Seattle’s price tiers.
(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 12.28.2010)