Local real estate salesman Mack McCoy, writing on the now-defunct Seattle Real Estate Professionals blog in October 2007: I tease the bubble bloggers!
The people on this board have extensive experience in the real estate world, and while there may be differences of opinion among them, the fact is that their opinions deserve to carry more weight than those of the amateurs who blog as a hobby.
…
There are other sites and blogs, some staffed by experts, some by amateurs. If you think that the amateurs have somehow discovered the secrets that the Real Estate Cartel has been trying to keep from you, let me suggest to you that perhaps we’re just letting them think that those are the important secrets.
…
Since the world has become so Lewis Carrollish, I, typically a composer in the folk-rock tradition, decided to compose this little ditty, completely out of love for my fellow bloggers and, in keeping with hip-hop tradition, callin’ out those who cannot get paid to comment on real estate and are only a few hundred transactions and tens of millions in sales volume behind me. With a special shout-out to the people who make landlording worthwhile.
Let me hear ya say Ya-ay!
Mack be representin’
Seattle Shoreline Downtown Edmon’
Don wanna hear no blowin’ o’ no bubble
Don wanna be inna middle o’ no trubbleThink all the hobbyist
Need to get ‘emselves a life
Know they ain’t experts
But they preachin’ like dey right
It goes on for another five verses.
+20-8
Mack and Larry from SREP are pretty much the reason I distrust and look down upon the real estate agent profession. As someone looking to buy a house for the first time and trying to make sense of the market and the industry, so I could make a sound purchase, they offered nothing but ridicule and antagonism. I have absolutely nothing to say to them other than an extended middle finger.
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Funny how Mack pretty much disappeared when things started going pear-shaped. Which leads me back to the same question I posted on the Angry Larry flashback: Why risk your reputation?
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I clicked on Mack McCoy’s name and it brought up a SB post from 2006. The comments were great.
1) Post #42 said the smart people in the room were the long-bond traders and they were long the real estate market. I assume he meant MBS’s and various CDO type thingy’s. Of course, hindsight is 20/20, but history proved that Paulson, Green & Bass were the smart ones shorting said RE paper.
2) D*mn, Eleua was/is one smart dude.
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What a moron.
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Hubris, thy name is Mack. IIRC he was a real jerk, known for mocking people and shutting down any rational bubble talk on that board back then. Can’t say I miss him.
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I’m sure The Tim is indulging in some schadenfreude, but these flashbacks are useful. Going through the articles and comments, you see the same psychological tricks on repeat. Even the bullish commentators with economic arguments avoid true insight due to axioms like, “A bubble can only crash if supply far outstrips demand.” It’s a reminder to always answer the questioned that are begged.
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He’s gonna need an army to finish off that serving of humble pie.
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“Don’t mess with me Ray”…”I know about you”…”I repeat again..DON’T MESS WITH ME!”…
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I like the verse about party is on his deck…. but I also don’t pay $24k/yr in rent.
Life ain’t like a college playground
Can’t be passin’ reefer ’round
Go on talkin’ bout da Man
And you ain’t even got a plan
Ain’t got no dollas in yer pocket
Us pros been makin’ cheese like Wisconsin
Say you been trackin the stats
I been out in the the world makin the stats
Workin all day while you sit home and play
You think you know the market
Your money on your hip
I be workin wit players
Workin the game while you be spinning your lip
Renters be payin’ my mortgage I got ta thank ya all
But when you gonna add to your own bankroll
I lived seventeen years in a Ballard house
Walked away with three hundred thou quiet as a mouse
Twenty-four thousand a year you pay the landlord
Scrimpin and savin’ writin’ us dem checks
Every year dat house is worth twenty thousand more
Yeah you think you winnin’ but the party’s on our deck!
Say that the party’s over, I’m just gettin’ started
I don’t mean to sound mean and cold hearted
Any time you want you can get into the market
Let some other renter come fill up my wallet …
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But I do enjoy that their Belltown condo has an AV for property taxes that’s gone from $444k in 2006 to 359k in 2011 for 1,081 sq ft. Bubble schmubble. They save some money on property taxes due to that, but it’s still a non-small hit. Reading “The Big Short” right now and thinking this guy might have have noticed the people he was selling to certainly had suspect financial security. Several foreclosures in his building (although that’s been the case everywhere).
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I don’t recognize that man. This is the Mack McCoy I remember.
http://activerain.com/system/s3_buckets/activerain-image-store-2/agents/849/294849/large/Mack4.jpg?1301350583
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The version you linked doesn’t have the comments (which I saved, of course):
Aside from denouncing Seattle Bubble:
“Oh, please. Making it onto a site where a buncha kids livin’ on their mama’s sofas blather about stuff they’ve only read about hardly qualifies as an “initiation.”,
Mack concludes:
“You have a choice in the marketplace of ideas. You can believe what you want to believe, and seek out others that share your beliefs. You can “get all the available data” and “decide,” which is to say, use your knowledge of the subject – whatever the scope of it may be – to determine what’s useful and what’s not.
Or you can consult experts.”
Sucks if you invested a whole lot of money in real estate in 2007, based on “consulting experts”.
Although Debra Sinick wins the grand prize with the final comment:
“Hi Mack,
You made my day! Wonderful. I said you were a witty writer, but this is one of the best posts out there, hands down!
Oh by the way, I could not agree with you more.
I will see you in March when the bubble bloggers are all kicking themselves for having stood on the sidelines. It is never too early to buy, but it can be too late.
Thanks for the great presentation.”
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With a mug like that, I’d not be posting full face photos.
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Mack is actually a rather smart guy, and had a lot of really good insights. His problems though were believing too much in the ability of experts and also the validity of the arm’s length price as setting value. The former is shown in the piece above, and the latter was shown in his disdain for appraisers being able to override terms negotiated by parties. Put those two together and you can understand (but not necessarily agree) with a lot of his thought processes.
If memory serves correct though, his worst call though was thinking that the worst of it (price declines) was over in June, 2008, when we had a slight bump up in prices.
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By GrizzlyBear @ 13:
LOL. Since you don’t post your picture, can we assume you look exactly like him? ;-)
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By Kary L. Krismer @ 15:
Kary- this is not a conversation you want to engage in.
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By Kary L. Krismer @ 14:
Who were these ‘experts’, Kary?
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RE: wreckingbull @ 17 – I don’t think it matters much the field or area of expertise–there are a lot of bad experts just about everywhere. Try not to think about that the next time you go to the doctor with something serious.
But in the context of that post, I was talking about agents.
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He is a foolish pile.
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All people end up where they belong in the end. This wide-body democrat has worn down teeth from over-feeding his face. His disgusting body should be rendered for heating oil. Maybe what he’s learned is this.. realtors are not part of a group of professionals that are generally considered vetted as being smarter or more educated than the general public (for example – engineers, non-Affirmative Action Doctors and Lawyers) This fatbodys end-game is depression, isolation and the lack of courage required to kill oneself. He should lay down and quit eating altogether. As he starves to death there will be a small window of time where he wont be a fatbody and he can at least die with some pride in knowing for once in his life he showed some self-discipline.
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RE: Buy My House, Idiot Renters! @ 12 – “Although Debra Sinick wins the grand prize with the final comment” – Debra Sinick is another Democrat with a degree in education …. of course she’s an idiot.
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Tim, everything you have thought, done, and written is right. Please keep going.
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By corndogs @ 21:
Given that most people in Seattle are Democrats, most real estate agents in Seattle are also Democrats. I can assure you that in places where the majority of people are Republicans, real estate agents there will mostly be Republicans, and will be just as stupid and delusional.
Corndogs tends to politicize everything. If someone does something stupid, or says something stupid, they are accused of being a Democrat. As if Republicans were not capable of being idiots.
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By Ira Sacharoff @ 23:
Actually Ira your statement is logically incorrect. Its your inability to create a truly logical argument that allows you to be a democrat. You have added one more data point to my theory that all democrats are stupid. You should go find the smartest friend you have and there is a small chance he might be able to explain to you what is wrong with that statement.
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RE: Ira Sacharoff @ 23 – http://www.newsmeat.com/fec/bystate_detail.php?st=WA&last=SINICK&first=DEBRA.. Here’s the woman’s reported campaign contributions to the dnc. Corndog can always back up his dialog.
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By corndogs @ 24:
But I’m not a Democrat. Do I vote for some Democratic candidates? Yes. I also vote for soem Republican candidates. I did not vote for Obama. But OK. Republicans are very logical and very smart. That’s why America thrived under George W Bush, well known for his logic and intellect.
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Republicans have good economic policies, bad social policies, and are politically stupid. Democrats have bad economics, good social policies, and for at least a year have been winning the political battles. Neither are particularly smart.
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RE: Ira Sacharoff @ 26 – right ira your a white Republican. .. Let’s stick with what we know to be true. You shot your mouth off to corndog and your statement was logically incorrect. That is blantantly stupid and corndog spanked you for it. In my opinion, from what you’ve posted on this site you are a Democrat. Youre trying to suggest otherwise because corndog owned you and you have nothing else.
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RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 27 – that’s just your opinion. Broad categorizations like that are hard to prove. When corndog says all Democrats are stupid its at least interesting because he is giving examples and intellectually owning them when they try to argue. So far I haven’t been proven wrong and I’ve been on here for months.
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RE: Ira Sacharoff @ 26 – “Republicans are very logical and very smart. That’s why America thrived under George W Bush, well known for his logic”
Once again Ira I would consider your statement to be stupid. Obviously, the country doesn’t thrive solely based on the political party of the President. That’s the failing conceptualization of a weak mind. Your statement is again lacking logic.
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RE: corndog @ 28 –
I am suggesting that I’m not a Democrat because I’m not a Democrat. And I never said I was a Republican. Clearly I’m not. I don’t like the Democrats, and the Republicans are even worse. And what’s your hangup with my whiteness or lack therof? Hitler and Corndogs wouldn’t call me white, but the US census does.
According to your “logic”, the country doesn’t thrive solely based on the party of the President. I agree. But you’re ready to blame Obama for everything from the economy to tooth decay.
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“And what’s your hangup with my whiteness or lack therof? Hitler and Corndogs wouldn’t call me white, but the US census does.”
You’re attempting once again to turn the table here. Your whiteness came into focus based on your own racist statement when you called the white race stupid, corndog called you out on it. It came into focus again when you said you were white therefore had a right to make fun of white people. Corndog doesn’t buy that. An Ethnic Jew ridiculing the white race is offensive to white people.
“But you’re ready to blame Obama for everything from the economy to tooth decay”. Here’s another stupid and worthless statement based on faulty logic. Corndog did not blame the president for the economy or tooth decay. I would say you’ve been reduced to drivel. But you’re actually drivel from beginning to end.
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RE: corndog @ 32 –
I figure it’s better for everyone here if I no longer respond to your posts. It only encourages you, so consider this the last time you’ll ever get a response from me, Corndogs. Maybe if enough people ignore you you’ll go away. Never did I ever say that the white race was stupid. Certain elements of it, sure. Like people who call me semi black and then go on about how they’ve vanquished me and now own me. I enjoy debating with people here and having civil discussions. It’s not possibble with you.
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By Ira Sacharoff @ 33:
In any case, I think Tim has silently signaled that political discussion should be in the political thread.
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RE: Ira Sacharoff @ 33 – As I told you before ira.. worry about yourself. Don’t get butt hurt and dont be weak and try to make a shout out to other people with a victim mentality. You just gotta be prepared when you talk to corndog next time and construct a logical argument. You might have to actually use your brain instead of talking about how you smell something fishy.
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RE: Ira Sacharoff @ 33 -btw. you weren’t trying to have a civil discussion with corndog. You were trying to be witty at corndogs expense and you got popped. Don’t be a cry baby.!
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RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 34 – HAHAHA! it’s awesome how ‘The Tim’ creates these boring old news flashbacks to glorify himself at the expense of others. Then when somebody else decides to have fun with it and carry it a little further he whites out the comments as if the whole premise of his post isn’t a negative assault on some innocent random dude. It’s funny how he whited out everything after post 20 except the post where somebody complimented him. Nobody knows who corndog is. Who cares what he says. . What’s more interesting is who ‘The Tim’ is.
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Corndog, let me guess, you were the one who ate paste to get attention from the teacher? You are doing the equivalent here. Merry Christmas, all.
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RE: wreckingbull @ 38 – Thanks Tiny Tim! Ira doesn’t celebrate Xmas. You should say Happy Holidays! Your not even smart enough to be a Democrat for Christ’s sake !
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