Posted by: Timothy Ellis (The Tim)

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

39 responses to “Friday Flashback: “I tease the bubble bloggers!””

  1. Lake Hills Renter

    Mack and Larry from SREP are pretty much the reason I distrust and look down upon the real estate agent profession. As someone looking to buy a house for the first time and trying to make sense of the market and the industry, so I could make a sound purchase, they offered nothing but ridicule and antagonism. I have absolutely nothing to say to them other than an extended middle finger.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 1

  2. wreckingbull

    Funny how Mack pretty much disappeared when things started going pear-shaped. Which leads me back to the same question I posted on the Angry Larry flashback: Why risk your reputation?

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  3. apartment boy

    I clicked on Mack McCoy’s name and it brought up a SB post from 2006. The comments were great.
    1) Post #42 said the smart people in the room were the long-bond traders and they were long the real estate market. I assume he meant MBS’s and various CDO type thingy’s. Of course, hindsight is 20/20, but history proved that Paulson, Green & Bass were the smart ones shorting said RE paper.
    2) D*mn, Eleua was/is one smart dude.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  4. Erik

    What a moron.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 1

  5. Mike

    Hubris, thy name is Mack. IIRC he was a real jerk, known for mocking people and shutting down any rational bubble talk on that board back then. Can’t say I miss him.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 1

  6. Al

    I’m sure The Tim is indulging in some schadenfreude, but these flashbacks are useful. Going through the articles and comments, you see the same psychological tricks on repeat. Even the bullish commentators with economic arguments avoid true insight due to axioms like, “A bubble can only crash if supply far outstrips demand.” It’s a reminder to always answer the questioned that are begged.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  7. sniffy

    He’s gonna need an army to finish off that serving of humble pie.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  8. ray pepper

    “Don’t mess with me Ray”…”I know about you”…”I repeat again..DON’T MESS WITH ME!”…

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  9. joe

    I like the verse about party is on his deck…. but I also don’t pay $24k/yr in rent.

    Life ain’t like a college playground
    Can’t be passin’ reefer ’round
    Go on talkin’ bout da Man
    And you ain’t even got a plan
    Ain’t got no dollas in yer pocket
    Us pros been makin’ cheese like Wisconsin

    Say you been trackin the stats
    I been out in the the world makin the stats
    Workin all day while you sit home and play
    You think you know the market
    Your money on your hip
    I be workin wit players
    Workin the game while you be spinning your lip

    Renters be payin’ my mortgage I got ta thank ya all
    But when you gonna add to your own bankroll
    I lived seventeen years in a Ballard house
    Walked away with three hundred thou quiet as a mouse

    Twenty-four thousand a year you pay the landlord
    Scrimpin and savin’ writin’ us dem checks
    Every year dat house is worth twenty thousand more
    Yeah you think you winnin’ but the party’s on our deck!

    Say that the party’s over, I’m just gettin’ started
    I don’t mean to sound mean and cold hearted
    Any time you want you can get into the market
    Let some other renter come fill up my wallet …

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  10. joe

    But I do enjoy that their Belltown condo has an AV for property taxes that’s gone from $444k in 2006 to 359k in 2011 for 1,081 sq ft. Bubble schmubble. They save some money on property taxes due to that, but it’s still a non-small hit. Reading “The Big Short” right now and thinking this guy might have have noticed the people he was selling to certainly had suspect financial security. Several foreclosures in his building (although that’s been the case everywhere).

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  11. ARDELL

    I don’t recognize that man. This is the Mack McCoy I remember.

    http://activerain.com/system/s3_buckets/activerain-image-store-2/agents/849/294849/large/Mack4.jpg?1301350583

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  12. Buy My House, Idiot Renters!

    The version you linked doesn’t have the comments (which I saved, of course):

    Aside from denouncing Seattle Bubble:

    “Oh, please. Making it onto a site where a buncha kids livin’ on their mama’s sofas blather about stuff they’ve only read about hardly qualifies as an “initiation.”,

    Mack concludes:

    “You have a choice in the marketplace of ideas. You can believe what you want to believe, and seek out others that share your beliefs. You can “get all the available data” and “decide,” which is to say, use your knowledge of the subject – whatever the scope of it may be – to determine what’s useful and what’s not.

    Or you can consult experts.”

    Sucks if you invested a whole lot of money in real estate in 2007, based on “consulting experts”.

    Although Debra Sinick wins the grand prize with the final comment:

    “Hi Mack,

    You made my day! Wonderful. I said you were a witty writer, but this is one of the best posts out there, hands down!

    Oh by the way, I could not agree with you more.

    I will see you in March when the bubble bloggers are all kicking themselves for having stood on the sidelines. It is never too early to buy, but it can be too late.

    Thanks for the great presentation.”

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  13. GrizzlyBear

    With a mug like that, I’d not be posting full face photos.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 1

  14. Kary L. Krismer

    Mack is actually a rather smart guy, and had a lot of really good insights. His problems though were believing too much in the ability of experts and also the validity of the arm’s length price as setting value. The former is shown in the piece above, and the latter was shown in his disdain for appraisers being able to override terms negotiated by parties. Put those two together and you can understand (but not necessarily agree) with a lot of his thought processes.

    If memory serves correct though, his worst call though was thinking that the worst of it (price declines) was over in June, 2008, when we had a slight bump up in prices.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 1

  15. Kary L. Krismer

    By GrizzlyBear @ 13:

    With a mug like that, I’d not be posting full face photos.

    LOL. Since you don’t post your picture, can we assume you look exactly like him? ;-)

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  16. GrizzlyBear

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 15:

    LOL. Since you don’t post your picture, can we assume you look exactly like him? ;-)

    Kary- this is not a conversation you want to engage in.

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  17. wreckingbull

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 14:

    Mack is actually a rather smart guy, and had a lot of really good insights. His problems though were believing too much in the ability of experts.

    Who were these ‘experts’, Kary?

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  18. Kary L. Krismer

    RE: wreckingbull @ 17 – I don’t think it matters much the field or area of expertise–there are a lot of bad experts just about everywhere. Try not to think about that the next time you go to the doctor with something serious.

    But in the context of that post, I was talking about agents.

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  19. Code Red

    He is a foolish pile.

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  20. corndogs

    All people end up where they belong in the end. This wide-body democrat has worn down teeth from over-feeding his face. His disgusting body should be rendered for heating oil. Maybe what he’s learned is this.. realtors are not part of a group of professionals that are generally considered vetted as being smarter or more educated than the general public (for example – engineers, non-Affirmative Action Doctors and Lawyers) This fatbodys end-game is depression, isolation and the lack of courage required to kill oneself. He should lay down and quit eating altogether. As he starves to death there will be a small window of time where he wont be a fatbody and he can at least die with some pride in knowing for once in his life he showed some self-discipline.

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  21. corndogs

    RE: Buy My House, Idiot Renters! @ 12 – “Although Debra Sinick wins the grand prize with the final comment” – Debra Sinick is another Democrat with a degree in education …. of course she’s an idiot.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  22. Feedback

    Tim, everything you have thought, done, and written is right. Please keep going.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  23. Ira Sacharoff

    By corndogs @ 21:

    RE: Buy My House, Idiot Renters! @ 12 – “Although Debra Sinick wins the grand prize with the final comment” – Debra Sinick is another Democrat with a degree in education …. of course she’s an idiot.

    Given that most people in Seattle are Democrats, most real estate agents in Seattle are also Democrats. I can assure you that in places where the majority of people are Republicans, real estate agents there will mostly be Republicans, and will be just as stupid and delusional.
    Corndogs tends to politicize everything. If someone does something stupid, or says something stupid, they are accused of being a Democrat. As if Republicans were not capable of being idiots.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  24. corndogs

    By Ira Sacharoff @ 23:

    By corndogs @ 21:
    RE: Buy My House, Idiot Renters! @ 12 – “Although Debra Sinick wins the grand prize with the final comment” – Debra Sinick is another Democrat with a degree in education …. of course she’s an idiot.

    Given that most people in Seattle are Democrats, most real estate agents in Seattle are also Democrats.

    Actually Ira your statement is logically incorrect. Its your inability to create a truly logical argument that allows you to be a democrat. You have added one more data point to my theory that all democrats are stupid. You should go find the smartest friend you have and there is a small chance he might be able to explain to you what is wrong with that statement.

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  25. corndogs

    RE: Ira Sacharoff @ 23http://www.newsmeat.com/fec/bystate_detail.php?st=WA&last=SINICK&first=DEBRA.. Here’s the woman’s reported campaign contributions to the dnc. Corndog can always back up his dialog.

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  26. Ira Sacharoff

    By corndogs @ 24:

    By Ira Sacharoff @ 23:
    By corndogs @ 21:
    RE: Buy My House, Idiot Renters! @ 12 – “Although Debra Sinick wins the grand prize with the final comment” – Debra Sinick is another Democrat with a degree in education …. of course she’s an idiot.

    Given that most people in Seattle are Democrats, most real estate agents in Seattle are also Democrats.

    Actually Ira your statement is logically incorrect. Its your inability to create a truly logical argument that allows you to be a democrat. You have added one more data point to my theory that all democrats are stupid. You should go find the smartest friend you have and there is a small chance he might be able to explain to you what is wrong with that statement.

    But I’m not a Democrat. Do I vote for some Democratic candidates? Yes. I also vote for soem Republican candidates. I did not vote for Obama. But OK. Republicans are very logical and very smart. That’s why America thrived under George W Bush, well known for his logic and intellect.

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  27. Kary L. Krismer

    Republicans have good economic policies, bad social policies, and are politically stupid. Democrats have bad economics, good social policies, and for at least a year have been winning the political battles. Neither are particularly smart.

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  28. corndogs

    RE: Ira Sacharoff @ 26 – right ira your a white Republican. .. Let’s stick with what we know to be true. You shot your mouth off to corndog and your statement was logically incorrect. That is blantantly stupid and corndog spanked you for it. In my opinion, from what you’ve posted on this site you are a Democrat. Youre trying to suggest otherwise because corndog owned you and you have nothing else.

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  29. corndogs

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 27 – that’s just your opinion. Broad categorizations like that are hard to prove. When corndog says all Democrats are stupid its at least interesting because he is giving examples and intellectually owning them when they try to argue. So far I haven’t been proven wrong and I’ve been on here for months.

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  30. corndogs

    RE: Ira Sacharoff @ 26 – “Republicans are very logical and very smart. That’s why America thrived under George W Bush, well known for his logic”
    Once again Ira I would consider your statement to be stupid. Obviously, the country doesn’t thrive solely based on the political party of the President. That’s the failing conceptualization of a weak mind. Your statement is again lacking logic.

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  31. Ira Sacharoff

    RE: corndog @ 28
    I am suggesting that I’m not a Democrat because I’m not a Democrat. And I never said I was a Republican. Clearly I’m not. I don’t like the Democrats, and the Republicans are even worse. And what’s your hangup with my whiteness or lack therof? Hitler and Corndogs wouldn’t call me white, but the US census does.
    According to your “logic”, the country doesn’t thrive solely based on the party of the President. I agree. But you’re ready to blame Obama for everything from the economy to tooth decay.

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  32. corndogs

    “And what’s your hangup with my whiteness or lack therof? Hitler and Corndogs wouldn’t call me white, but the US census does.”

    You’re attempting once again to turn the table here. Your whiteness came into focus based on your own racist statement when you called the white race stupid, corndog called you out on it. It came into focus again when you said you were white therefore had a right to make fun of white people. Corndog doesn’t buy that. An Ethnic Jew ridiculing the white race is offensive to white people.

    “But you’re ready to blame Obama for everything from the economy to tooth decay”. Here’s another stupid and worthless statement based on faulty logic. Corndog did not blame the president for the economy or tooth decay. I would say you’ve been reduced to drivel. But you’re actually drivel from beginning to end.

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  33. Ira Sacharoff

    RE: corndog @ 32
    I figure it’s better for everyone here if I no longer respond to your posts. It only encourages you, so consider this the last time you’ll ever get a response from me, Corndogs. Maybe if enough people ignore you you’ll go away. Never did I ever say that the white race was stupid. Certain elements of it, sure. Like people who call me semi black and then go on about how they’ve vanquished me and now own me. I enjoy debating with people here and having civil discussions. It’s not possibble with you.

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  34. Kary L. Krismer

    By Ira Sacharoff @ 33:

    RE: corndog @ 32
    I figure it’s better for everyone here if I no longer respond to your posts.

    In any case, I think Tim has silently signaled that political discussion should be in the political thread.

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  35. corndogs

    RE: Ira Sacharoff @ 33 – As I told you before ira.. worry about yourself. Don’t get butt hurt and dont be weak and try to make a shout out to other people with a victim mentality. You just gotta be prepared when you talk to corndog next time and construct a logical argument. You might have to actually use your brain instead of talking about how you smell something fishy.

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  36. corndogs

    RE: Ira Sacharoff @ 33 -btw. you weren’t trying to have a civil discussion with corndog. You were trying to be witty at corndogs expense and you got popped. Don’t be a cry baby.!

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  37. corndogs

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 34 – HAHAHA! it’s awesome how ‘The Tim’ creates these boring old news flashbacks to glorify himself at the expense of others. Then when somebody else decides to have fun with it and carry it a little further he whites out the comments as if the whole premise of his post isn’t a negative assault on some innocent random dude. It’s funny how he whited out everything after post 20 except the post where somebody complimented him. Nobody knows who corndog is. Who cares what he says. . What’s more interesting is who ‘The Tim’ is.

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  38. wreckingbull

    Corndog, let me guess, you were the one who ate paste to get attention from the teacher? You are doing the equivalent here. Merry Christmas, all.

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  39. corndogs

    RE: wreckingbull @ 38 – Thanks Tiny Tim! Ira doesn’t celebrate Xmas. You should say Happy Holidays! Your not even smart enough to be a Democrat for Christ’s sake !

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

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