Posted by: The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

10 responses to “September Stats Preview: One More Inventory Bump Edition”

  1. Erik

    I am going to say a prayer tonight that inventory in King County decreases next month. On 11/2, I have a feeling Tim’s post will be “November Stats Preview: Inventory Slump Edition.” At that point, I will know that my prayers have been answered.

    If inventory does not increase next month, I promise that I will not comment for atleast one day as my gift to commenters. I am that confident we will see inventory spiral downward as it has done about this time for the previous 12 years.

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  2. Erik

    RE: The Tim @ 2
    Okay, I was under the impression you thought inventory would increase. You think year over year inventory will increase. That could very well be. It did drop a lot last year. It will be interesting to see what happens. Thanks for the clarification.
    There are probably more buyers this year than last year. The number of sellers will likely stay constant since people don’t want to move around the holidays. I think year over years inventory will be close to last year.

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  3. 3rd Generation

    Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak out and remove all doubt.
    -Abraham Lincoln

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  4. Erik

    RE: 3rd Generation @ 4
    Are you from Clark County? Do you own a real estate office there?

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  5. norse

    Interesting article about the size of the vampire/bank owned inventory (ie folks that live rent-free). It goes some way to explain rents/inventory/house prices in Seattle: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-10-03/meet-monster-housing-market-presenting-vampire-reos-which-65-americans-live-mortgage

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  6. Plymster

    RE: norse @ 6 – Foreclosees living mortgage free in Bank REOs 6 years after the housing market collapse? That’s impossible. Everybody knows that shadow inventory like this is a myth. </sarc>

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  7. Macro Investor

    By norse @ 6:

    Interesting article about the size of the vampire/bank owned inventory

    I’ve been saying that on this blog for a year now. Also, if you look at foreclosure radar (shadow inventory) you see approximately 2-3 REOs for every MLS listing.

    Risk is still high for another housing market down turn. Doesn’t mean it will happen any time soon, or ever — but paying $500k for a shabby wooden box in Seattle is playing Russian roulette with your retirement.

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  8. corndogs

    RE: norse @ 6 – “Interesting article about the size of the vampire/bank owned inventory”

    Did I miss something? I didn’t see where the article spoke to the SIZE of the so called vampire inventory. I see some percentages of how many homes are occupied. Why is that significant? How does it cause a downturn in housing prices?

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  9. Erik

    RE: The Tim @ 2
    King County inventory is down to 4591 per your Estately data on this website. 4953 when you posted this and 4591 now. At this rate, inventory is dropping faster than the previous year. Hopefully we get below 4000 this month. That is my goal. 300 more and I will have been proven correct!

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