About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

Eric Fischer: San Francisco Housing Model

No, Seattle Affordability Is Not “Pretty Much Game Over”

A few weeks ago Stranger writer Charles Mudede published a post in which he argued that “Seattle Is Pretty Much Game Over” in terms of housing affordability. There was a time when something could have been done to avoid its entry into the locked cycle of asset value inflation, but that was a few years […]

Point-Counterpoint: Is Zillow a Valuable Tool?

Anyone who has read this site for any length of time knows that I am not exactly Zillow’s biggest fan (to put it lightly). However, I like to keep an open mind, and I don’t want Seattle Bubble to become an echo chamber.

Therefore, I’m happy to present a point-counterpoint on the topic of Zillow’s value in the real estate marketplace. Rather than participating myself, I’ve invited two long-time Seattle Bubble regulars and local real estate professionals to debate the subject for us all.

April Reporting Roundup: “Risky Behavior” Edition

It’s back! Time for another reporting roundup, where you can read my wry commentary about the news instead of subjecting yourself to boring rehashes of the NWMLS press release (or in addition to, if that’s what floats your boat). To kick things off, here’s an excerpt from the NWMLS press release: Housing inventory improves, but […]

KingCoSupplyVsDemand2016-04

NWMLS: Home Prices Hit Another Record as Sales Slow

Get access to the full spreadsheets used to make the charts in this and other posts, as well as a variety of additional insider benefits by becoming a member of Seattle Bubble. April market stats were published by the NWMLS yesterday. Before we get into our monthly stats, here’s a quick look at their press […]

Preview_2016-04_Warranty-Deeds

April Stats Preview: Supply Increasing, Demand Decreasing

With April behind us, let’s have a look at our monthly stats preview. First up, here’s the snapshot of all the data as far back as my historical information goes, with the latest, high, and low values highlighted for each series: Inventory is still extremely low, but in King County the month-over-month increase was the […]

Case-Shiller_SeaTiers-Zoomed_2016-02

Case-Shiller Tiers: High Tier Surpasses 2007 Peak Pricing

Let’s check out the three price tiers for the Seattle area, as measured by Case-Shiller. Remember, Case-Shiller’s “Seattle” data is based on single-family home repeat sales in King, Pierce, and Snohomish counties. Note that the tiers are determined by sale volume. In other words, 1/3 of all sales fall into each tier. For more details […]

Case-ShillerHPI_MOM_2016-02

Case-Shiller: Seattle Sees Nation’s Biggest Price Gains

Let’s have a look at the latest data from the Case-Shiller Home Price Index. According to January data that was released today, Seattle-area home prices were: Up 1.1 percent January to February Up 11.0 percent YOY. Down 1.7 percent from the July 2007 peak Over the same period last year prices were up 0.9 percent […]