Seattle Bubble

News & discussion about real estate & the housing bubble in the Seattle area.

Seattle Bubble - News & discussion about real estate & the housing bubble in the Seattle area.

Entries Tagged as 'Boeing'

Poll: If Boeing leaves the Puget Sound by 2030, the area will sustain…

By The Tim on November 1st, 2009 at 12:05 AM · 90 Comments

Please vote in this poll using the sidebar.

This poll will be active and displayed on the sidebar through 11.08.2009.

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Boeing Still by Far the Biggest Player in the Puget Sound Economy

By The Tim on October 28th, 2009 at 1:30 PM · 111 Comments

Quick note on the potential impact of a long-term departure of Boeing from the Puget Sound.

The Seattle-area economy is definitely more diverse than it was in the ’70s, but Boeing still dominates the employment base by the numbers.

A 2003 table from the Greater Seattle Chamber of Commerce shows Boeing employing more people than the next six-largest Puget Sound companies combined (Port of Seattle, Alaska Air, Microsoft, UW, Safeway, and the VA).

Here’s a crude visual of the size of Puget Sound’s top 10 employers based on the Chamber’s 2003 data linked above:

Top 10 Puget Sound Employers (2003)

Here is some more recent data on Boeing, Microsoft, and Amazon (which was listed by the Chamber of Commerce as the 9th-largest local employer as of 2003).

Total Puget Sound Jobs
Boeing: 73,357 (46% of total headcount)
Microsoft: 40,224 (44% of total headcount)
Amazon: 10,850 (assuming 50% of total headcount)

And keep in mind that the numbers listed above are only those directly employed by Boeing itself. Many thousands more local jobs are directly tied to Boeing in companies that supply Boeing with parts and services.

In short, there’s clearly a lot at stake for the local economy (and by extension the local housing market) when it comes to Boeing’s long-term plans.

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More of the usual Boeing 787 news…

By The Tim on July 22nd, 2009 at 10:38 AM · 32 Comments

(emphasis added to quotes below)

Flashback to April 26, 2005: Orders fly in for Boeing 787

Currently the 787, due to enter service in 2008, has a two-year head start on the A350.

November 7, 2006: “Good, steady progress” on 787 as Boeing works to lighten up

Boeing’s 787 is on schedule. Early practice production is going smoothly. A plan to take off extra weight is in place. And the new jet’s boost to airline operating economics will be significantly better than originally projected.

That was the vigorously upbeat status report Monday from 787 program chief Mike Bair.

With the airplane less than a year from its first flight, the program is under intense scrutiny for early signs of the kind of disastrous stumbles that have led to two-year delays on the Airbus A380 superjumbo.

But if Bair is feeling the pressure, it isn’t showing.

July 8, 2007 (7-8-7): A Dreamliner comes true: Boeing’s 787 debuts today:

The Dreamliner has been elevated to a worldwide stage because it uses parts produced around the world and shipped to Everett for assembly. It’s also the first Boeing plane built extensively with composite plastic parts.

And while today is devoted to a celebration, the plane’s real test will come in August or September when it’s scheduled to make its maiden flight.

Fast-forward to July 22, 2009: Boeing 787 may not fly this year:

The structural flaw that delayed the first flight of the 787 Dreamliner is more complex than originally described by the company, and the plane’s inaugural takeoff is likely at least four to six months away, say two engineers with knowledge of Boeing’s problem.

“It’s got to take at least three to four months just to get something installed on an airplane,” said a structures engineer who has been briefed on the issue. “It’s definitely a costly fix to go and do this work.”

A second engineer, who is familiar with the details of Boeing’s construction method, said the fix must first be made on the nonflying test airplane in the Everett factory. Assuming that’s successful, it will take another month or two to install the fix on the first airplane to fly.

If Boeing’s initial fix fails to divert enough of the load away from the stress points, the delay in first flight could extend beyond six months, pushing the date out into 2010.

“There’s no guarantee that what (Boeing) is doing will work,” the second engineer said. “If the testing or analysis shows it doesn’t get rid of the load, then the engineers are back to square one.”

Doh. On the up side, maybe the recession will be over by the time the 787 is actually ready to ship to customers.

Also, I’m curious… How many people here really believe that the 787 was truly on schedule from 2005 through 2007? Having worked in engineering at a company whose primary business is manufacturing, I am well aware of the marketing and politics that goes on behind the scene. I wouldn’t be surprised if the original “timeline” was driven largely by marketing, with the engineers insisting that they needed much more time, but ultimately being ignored.

(Dominic Gates, Seattle Times, 04.26.2005)
(Dominic Gates, Seattle Times, 11.07.2006)
(Kirsten Orsini-Meinhard, Seattle Times, 07.08.2007)
(Dominic Gates, Seattle Times, 07.22.2009)

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Poll: Will Boeing (mostly) leave the Puget Sound region by 2030?

By The Tim on July 12th, 2009 at 12:05 AM · 20 Comments

Please vote in this poll using the sidebar.

Will Boeing (mostly) leave the Puget Sound region by 2030?

  • Definitely not. (3%, 4 Votes)
  • Probably not. (24%, 37 Votes)
  • Maybe? (14%, 22 Votes)
  • Probably. (40%, 61 Votes)
  • Definitely. (19%, 30 Votes)

Total Voters: 154


This poll will be active and displayed on the sidebar through 07.18.2009.

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Boeing “Bean Counters” Threatening to Leave Town

By The Tim on June 18th, 2009 at 7:02 AM · 118 Comments

Lots of news has come out over the last few days regarding Boeing. Here’s a roundup of some of the big headlines.

Airbus extends air show order lead over Boeing

Airbus has now racked up $11.5 billion in orders and agreements this week, well ahead of Boeing, which notched up its first air show order on Wednesday — a $153 million deal with Japan’s MC Aviation Partners for only two jets.

Boeing shrugged off the Airbus announcements, saying the company doesn’t save up orders to announce at air shows.

Emotionless Boeing considering labor stability for 2nd 787 line

Chicago-based The Boeing Co. says that when it decides where to put a second 787 line, it will do so without emotion and will take labor stability into account.

Boeing’s vice president of airplane programs, Pat Shanahan, said that the decision on where to put a second 787 assembly line will not take a long time.

“There are opportunities that we need to assess and I’ve worked there for 24 years, I like the people in Seattle, I grew up in Seattle, It’s a great community, but when you have the customer telling you you’re making it really hard to choose your product because when we buy it you can’t give it to us,” said Shanahan.

Qatar Airways CEO blasts Boeing, may cancel orders for 787

“The writing is in the wall for Boeing, and they don’t care,” Qatar Airways CEO Akbar Al Baker told Dow Jones at the Paris Air Show. “They’re too busy having lunches and dinners.”

“Boeing doesn’t realize how much they’re hurting their customers’ plans,” he said. “They’re very much mistaken if they think we’re going to give them much more time on the issue.”

“Unfortunately, Boeing is not run by commercial people,” Al Baker told a group of journalists here yesterday afternoon. “Boeing is run by bean counters and lawyers. We have some serious issues with them, and if they do not play ball with us, they will be in for a serious surprise.”

Managing the drones: Boeing forms unmanned aircraft division

Boeing is forming a Seattle-based division to focus its efforts to win contracts to supply unmanned aircraft.

Boeing has a broad portfolio of unmanned systems, but has yet to win a major contract from the Pentagon. Boeing’s unmanned aircraft include the ScanEagle, Integrator, Phantom Ray, Hummingbird A160 and HALE.

Boeing still directly employs 73,760 people around the Puget Sound—roughly 40% more than Microsoft and Amazon combined. I certainly hope that Boeing doesn’t decide to begin migrating the majority of its operations elsewhere, and I’m not in a position to judge whether talk from large airlines about switching to Airbus is just corporate posturing, but you can bet that if either of those things do happen, the local economy (and by extension, the housing market) will feel it.

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News Roundup: Jobs, Everett Condos, Illusions…

By The Tim on May 22nd, 2009 at 8:18 AM · 49 Comments

Here are a few relevant news stories that have popped into my inbox in the last few days:

In the last article, Aubrey Cohen picks up on the pending story we explored on here a couple weeks ago. The NWMLS representative he spoke with provided the same two explanations for the pending/closed discrepancy that we independently deducted here: short sales and the NWMLS definition change.

From Aubrey’s article:

Bob Gent, director of business development and member relations for the listing service, acknowledged the definition change had an impact. In fact, he provided statistics showing that the rate of pending listings going back on the market jumped from 1.5 percent in January through May of 2008 to 4 percent in June 2008 through April 2009.

But said the change could only account for part of the recent increase in pending sales. Take out all the pending sales that went back on the market last April and this April, and there’s still a 6-percent increase.

”Did it have an impact? Yes,” Gent said. “It’s not big enough to explain the situation.”

So why are the increased pending sales not yet showing up in closed deals?

“The length of time from going pending to close has increased dramatically in the past few months due to short sales,” Gent said.

You may notice of course that Mr. Gent avoids addressing the issue of how many of these “pending” short sales simply never close. Local agent and Seattle Bubble regular Kary L. Krismer points out some common reasons why short sales are often failing to close in the P-I comments:

There are a number of reasons a short sale could fall out, including:

  1. Buyer gets tired of waiting.
  2. Bank refuses to accept unrealistically low price, and buyer refuses to pay more.
  3. Seller figures out that the bank isn’t going to release the balance, and that they’re better off being foreclosed.

Again, I’m not contending that sales are not increasing. In fact I have predicted that they will increase as prices continue to fall, just as they have in other parts of the country further along the bust cycle than Seattle. I just think the combination of short sales (which fail more often than normal sales) and the NWMLS “pending” definition change are overstating the increase.

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