Seattle Bubble

News & discussion about real estate & the housing bubble in the Seattle area.

Seattle Bubble - News & discussion about real estate & the housing bubble in the Seattle area.

Entries Tagged as 'construction'

Spec Builder Spectacularly Miscalculated Market

By The Tim on June 26th, 2009 at 9:14 AM · 15 Comments

KIRO radio ran a mildly interesting piece about a spec builder in my neighborhood with especially poor timing: Local spec homes sit empty, cheap.

What started as a fun project turned into a nightmare for a builder in Kenmore.

Ken Youch, with Kenmar Construction, is happy to give tours of any one of the million dollar houses he has built in Kenmore.

“They’re absolutely beautiful homes that we built when the market was booming. This is my very first attempt at spec building,” he said.

It is also his last. Like many builders across the Puget Sound, Youch is losing a lot of money on these three sister homes. All were priced over one million dollars and now they’re going at about $500,000 lower.

7320 NE 150th St Kenmore, WA 98028The houses in question are 7320, 7328, and 7332 on NE 150th St in Kenmore, for which the builder is asking $674k, $679k, and $699k, respectively (as a side note, KIRO clearly has a different definition of “cheap” than I do). Cumulative days on market for each of the three properties is in excess of 440. He purchased the lots in April and July 2007 for $262,500, $265,175, and $267,200.

July 2007. If that rings a bell to anyone, it might be because it was the peak month for Seattle-area home prices. Granted, we only know that thanks to the benefit of hindsight, but even at the time the writing was on the wall for anyone paying attention.

Are we supposed to feel sorry for this builder for getting caught up in the mania and failing to do his research before jumping in head first to an expensive and risky venture like this? That seems to be the angle of this piece, but to be honest, I’m not feeling it.

At least he hasn’t gone into foreclosure yet, so he must have the financial strength to stand behind his risky move. Also, he doesn’t appear to be angling for a bailout, so while I question his business sense, I respect his apparent willingness to take responsibility for his decisions.

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Tacoma Luxury Condo Project Headed for Foreclosure

By The Tim on June 25th, 2009 at 11:01 AM · 14 Comments

Regular readers may recall this post from last October: Construction Defaults Over 10%, Tacoma Condos Empty.

Tacoma News Tribune: Downtown condo sales at a crawl

How’s the market for condominiums in downtown Tacoma?

“What market?” says Judy Mayfield, head of sales for The Esplanade, the 162-unit project on the Foss Waterway, now nearing completion.

After two years of extolling the virtues of the nine-story luxury project, Mayfield and her staff have yet to close a deal on a single unit.

Translation: “We were really counting on suckering 162 flippers into buying luxury condos in Tacoma on the false hopes that they could sell them for a profit in the perma-hot housing market. Now that the market has cooled and everyone realizes that nobody wants to actually live in luxury condos in Tacoma, we’re screwed!”

Apparently they were even more screwed than we might have guessed. Here’s a story from yesterday’s Tacoma News Tribune: $80 million Esplanade project faces foreclosure

An $80 million Tacoma waterfront condominium project, caught in the financial whirlpools of the recession, faces foreclosure by late August unless the developer can find new sources of funding.

The Esplanade, a nine-story condominium on the west side of the near-downtown Thea Foss Waterway, has until Aug. 21 to escape from the imminent foreclosure, said sources close to the project who were not authorized to speak publicly.

Just 10 of the 162 housing units in the building at 1515 Dock St. have been sold, and none of the retail spaces on Dock Street or facing the waterfront walkway has been leased.

According to the Notice of Trustee sale filed with Pierce County (pdf), the developer (Thea Foss Holdings, LLC) has outstanding obligations of $48,532,793.62 on the project. If I’m reading the document correctly, it looks like their financing required them to pay in full on February 1st. Apparently they thought they would have sold enough units by then to cover their costs. Obviously after having sold just just six percent of the units in over two years, they came up a little bit short.

(John Gillie, Tacoma News Tribune, 06.24.2009)

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Mapping Stalled / Slow Construction Around Seattle

By The Tim on June 23rd, 2009 at 9:36 AM · 29 Comments

With the housing downturn in full swing, it’s interesting how many housing developments have slowed to a near stop or stalled completely. I’ve begun mapping out some of these fallow construction sites in the areas that I frequent (north King / south Snohomish), and I thought it would be interesting to open the process up and make it a group project.

Below you will find the map that I have started. If you’d like to contribute some stalled residential construction sites (SFH or condo) in your area, just sign into your Google account then head to this link, click “Edit” on the left side of the page, and begin adding your markers.

At present, the map is open for anyone with a Google account to edit freely. I only ask that you not modify existing points added by others and that you follow roughly the same format that I have used on the starting points, which includes location, size (# of units), builder, status, and if possible, a picture.

If we all work together, I think we can create something that will be pretty interesting.


View Stalled/Slow Seattle Construction in a larger map

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DIY Seattle Home Ownership on the Cheap

By The Tim on June 4th, 2009 at 10:13 AM · 5 Comments

A couple months ago I pointed out Mike Davidson’s excellent home-building journal A House by the Park, in which he is chronicling his step-by-step process to build a custom home in Magnolia.

When I posted that link, some readers complained that Mike’s project was too high-end to be of much use to your more average family. Well, thanks to a heads up from Cheap South in the comments, here’s another local project on the opposite end of the spectrum for you: Mini-Mobile Cottage

Jeff & Arlene are building a cottage with less than 200 square feet, documenting and pricing out the project in a similar manner to Mike’s site. They’re also looking for a place to park their house upon completion in August, so if you’re interested in helping, drop them a line.

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Local First-Hand Journal of the Custom Home-Building Process

By The Tim on April 13th, 2009 at 1:09 PM · 17 Comments

I had the pleasure of speaking with Mike Davidson (founder and CEO of Newsvine) at last week’s No News is Bad News event. During our conversation, he alerted me to an excellent blog that he has been updating since October 2007 in which he is chronicling his journey to build a custom home: A House By The Park

Here’s a snippet from his About page:

In beginning the process of building a house, I’ve found no singular source of information online which describes the start-to-finish process of creating a new custom home. There are a ton of “Building A Home For Dummies”-style books on Amazon, as well as disparate blog posts and photo galleries about new construction, but nowhere have I found a coherent, first-hand journal of the entire process from the standpoint of someone like me: a guy building his first house with no clue what to do besides putting one foot before the other.

A House By The Park will attempt to be that guide for others looking to do exactly what I’m trying to do: build a great, affordable custom home with no prior experience. If something like this existed before I began my project, I know I’d be a lot more equipped than I currently am.

Mike is detailing the entire process, including the hunt for and acquisition of the perfect plot of land on which to build his home, which happens to be right here in the Seattle area.

One of the greatest features of A House By The Park is that Mike is 100% transparent about how much he is spending on each step of the process. At the end of each post in which he discusses a new cost for the project, he plainly lists all the costs in a simple table, providing those who follow in his footsteps a great data point for comparison to their own project.

A House By The Park would be an awesome resource for anyone considering going through the process of building a custom home. I highly recommend checking it out.

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Construction Defaults Over 10%, Tacoma Condos Empty

By The Tim on October 10th, 2008 at 8:28 AM · 64 Comments

A few more articles from this week about how dramatically the local real estate market has slowed.

Puget Sound Business Journal: Construction defaults rise in Seattle area

The latest data on local new-home sales and construction-loan delinquencies illustrate the market forces underlying the growth in mechanics’ lien filings.

Delinquencies of single-family construction loans in the Seattle/Bellevue/Everett marketplace have risen to 11.4 percent of outstanding loan balances during the second quarter, according to data from Oakland, Calif.-based consultant Foresight Analytics.

That’s only slightly better than the median delinquency rate of 11.6 percent among the nation’s 100 largest metro areas. The Tacoma market is even more distressed, with 15.6 percent of single-family construction loans delinquent.

With respect to commercial and condominium construction loan delinquencies, both the Seattle/Bellevue/Everett (5.6 percent) and Tacoma (8.7 percent) vicinities fared worse during the second quarter than the top 100 markets combined (4.9 percent).

Falling new-home sales and values underlie much of the construction loan foreclosure activity.

Over 1 in 10 residential construction loans have gone delinquent? Yikes. So much for Seattle-area builders learning from the lessons of Florida, where they went through this same mess two years ago.

Tacoma News Tribune: Downtown condo sales at a crawl

How’s the market for condominiums in downtown Tacoma?

“What market?” says Judy Mayfield, head of sales for The Esplanade, the 162-unit project on the Foss Waterway, now nearing completion.

After two years of extolling the virtues of the nine-story luxury project, Mayfield and her staff have yet to close a deal on a single unit.

Tacoma’s condo market has suffered even more in the mortgage meltdown than other sectors of real estate.

Condominium developers and brokers remain convinced the condos are a good deal – in fact, they say, what with low interest rates and high inventory, they are a better deal than ever.

The problem, they say, is getting people to commit in such uncertain times.

“The timing couldn’t have been worse,” Mayfield said. “Had the market not turned in the past year and a half, we would definitely have sold out by now.”

Translation: “We were really counting on suckering 162 flippers into buying luxury condos in Tacoma on the false hopes that they could sell them for a profit in the perma-hot housing market. Now that the market has cooled and everyone realizes that nobody wants to actually live in luxury condos in Tacoma, we’re screwed!”

Seriously. Who sat down at the drawing board and said “one hundred and sixty-two luxury condos in Tacoma—sounds like a great plan!” Perhaps it was the same sage that decided a good plan would be to build an 86-unit townhome complex in Kenmore, then market it with pictures of sandy beaches and palm trees.

Does anyone out there still think the rental market will be tight as a growing number of these completed condo and townhome projects switch to rentals after attracting no buyers for months on end?

(Brad Berton, Puget Sound Business Journal, 10.03.2008)
(Rob Carson, Tacoma News Tribune, 10.10.2008)

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