Go Forth and Comment

Sorry, I got nothin’ today. So instead of a real post, here are some links to recent posts on other local real estate blogs that you might be interested in reading and commenting on. What with 50-100 comments on most posts here lately, I thought maybe we could spread the comment love around a bit. Enjoy, and be nice.

On Rain City Guide by Jim Reppond: The Sky is Falling! The Sky is Falling!

Yes, real estate is somewhat cyclical. And at times there are market fluctuations. But the human tendency to gravitate towards fear, as well as to not look at things in historical perspective, makes people think things are much more dramatic and dire than they are in reality, IMO.

Hey, wait a minute, that post looks familiar… I love it when the real estate sales offices circulate informal talking points memos like these.

On Redfin Seattle Sweet Digs by Katrina Munsell: Can Price Drops Give you Carpal Tunnel Syndrome?

That’s exactly what I was thinking as I was compiling this week’s list of Eastside price drops greater than $25,000. If this trend keeps up, I’ll be able to tell you pretty darn soon.

On Urbnlivn by Matt Goyer: You weren’t featured in the Seattle Times

There’s a number of condo projects that email me every week about how they were featured in the Seattle Times when in fact all they did was buy advertising in the Seattle Times.

On Home Forum Extra by Becky Bisbee: National outlook gloomy for 2008

At the National Association of Realtors convention here, the big question on everyone’s mind is: When will the real-estate market rebound?Economist John Tuccillo is predicting the end of 2008 or beginning of 2009 for the nation as a whole.

However the Virginia-based consultant and former NAR chief economist stressed that “there are hundreds of thousands of real-estate markets, so it doesn’t matter what the national picture is.”

What really matters to buyers and sellers is what’s occurring in their own area.

On Open House by Devona Wells: California baby selling local mortgages

Two of my co-workers received an ad in the mail last week in an envelope that is white, slightly over-sized and addressed in black ink using a pretty, occasion-type font. It would be easy to mistake the presentation for a wedding invite.Open it, however, and there’s a picture of a cute baby gazing at you from the cover of a card. A birth announcement? No, an attempt at mortgage marketing.

On SeattleBubble? by Tim Dunn:

…oh wait, blog-spamming realtor Tim Dunn hasn’t posted since September. I wonder why?

Update: In response to a comment on his most recent post, Mr. Dunn indicates that he hasn’t posted lately because he has been “very ill.” I would like to extend my best wishes of a speedy recovery to Mr. Dunn. That is all.

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About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. Tim also hosts the weekly improv comedy sci-fi podcast Dispatches from the Multiverse.

19 comments:

  1. 1
    Buceri says:

    Inventory: This year we topped back in September at what? 11600? We lost 1000 listings or about 9% since then. How does this compare with previous years?

  2. 2
    Alan says:

    Around 40% higher than last year.

  3. 3

    THE REALTOR TROLLS LEAVE TIM’S BLOG LIKE RATS JUMPING THE SINKING SHIP

    What get’s me about trolls Tim, they rarely give you hard evidence for their opinion. Its aways that “doncha know” or MSM PC type of logic that lower IQs flock to like sacrificial lambs.

  4. 4
    NostraDamnUs says:

    software – perpetuating one’s point of view with articles found on various websites hardly qualifies as evidence of anything, but I think what you are suggesting is, that if 8 out of 10 bloggers are in agreement with you, that your evidence is somehow embelished or more powerful?

    No offense to anything you say – but do you actually think you are right and others are wrong in what they claim?

  5. 5
    NostraDamnUs says:

    And if I may ask – are you in the market to sell or buy? (softwareengineer)

  6. 6
    NolaGuy says:

    Nostra’,

    I’ve seen you say more than once that you think the housing market will return to normal after the presidential election.

    You haven’t said why you feel that way. Care to elaborate? I’m curious to your thinking there.

  7. 7
    NostraDamnUs says:

    Nola – just a wild guess. Based on prior observation, without indication to future performance.

  8. 8
    Faster says:

    This list of links was originally posted in the comments section of Rain city Guide. Interesting to note the city that each link originates from. Isn’t it funny that real estate agents love to say “All real estate is local”, yet somehow their talking points apply to the whole nation? Also worth noting that some of these posts were made months ago.

    Seattle – Rain City
    Seattle – PI
    Orlando
    Santa Barbara
    Salt Lake City
    Lodi, CA
    Orange County
    Sonoma County
    New York

  9. 9
    Doug says:

    Out of all the pathetic NAR radio ads this one takes the cake! Give me a break! lol

    Go down to “Radio Campaign” and listen to radio spot 3.

    http://www.warealtor.org/facts.asp

  10. 10
    deejayoh says:

    Thanks Doug. I think I just threw up a little in my mouth.

  11. 11
    david losh says:

    Por Nostra,
    Every ten years the federal government hires every low life loser scum in the country for the Census. The welfare to work program was introduced just before the last Census and hailed as a great success.
    The national economy looks pretty good with lower unemployment claims, and new jobs created. It’s the mid decades the federal government has a problem with. I don’t know, maybe it’s just me, but wasn’t the bursting of the dot com era at the end of the last decade?
    So first it will be the election campaigners spending the war chest, then the Census to float employment. It’ll appear as though the economy is doing something.
    Now as a Real Estate troll I’ve kind of kept track of the cycles over the decades. I have no hard evidence but seem to do pretty well by following my theory.

  12. 12
    SDtoSEA says:

    I can’t believe that radio ad said:

    “We’re projected to add a ton of new jobs in the next few years”

    I didn’t know the experts were now projecting jobs in thousands of pounds.

  13. 13
    squidier says:

    I already blew all my best commentary on King 5’s News Up Front blog. :)

    Soldier on!

    http://blogs.king5.com/upfront/archives/2007/11/home_market_slo.html

  14. 14

    “We’re projected to add a ton of new jobs in the next few years”

    What they don’t say is that very few of these jobs will be at wages where people will be able to afford houses.

  15. 15
    Grivetti says:

    Meshugy anyone?

  16. 16
    patient says:

    Remember that people, when your neighbours and friends can’t sell their homes and price reductions are everywhere it’s just an evil conspiracy to make you hesitate on the best investment ever! Don’t fall for it, instead call a realtor for an unbiased, unpartial report on the real situation!

  17. 17
    Ubersalad says:

    “Don’t fall for it, instead call a realtor for an unbiased, unpartial report on the real situation!”

    ahahahaha…HAHAHAHAHAAH…oh wait…HAHAHAHAAHAHHAHAHAHAHAH.

  18. 18
    johnnybigspenda says:

    when we look at the 10,781 figure on listings, how does that compare to the 10 year average at this time of year? We all know the past few years have been historical lows on inventory….so a 40% increase over a histrorical low may be misleading.

  19. 19
    plymster says:

    Gee, johnnybigspenda. I guess you’re right. We only have NWdata from the last 7 years and 10 months at our fingerprints thanks to the Tim. According to the NWMLS, 11,103 (September 2007 inventory) is 21% higher than the all time high of 9,176 set back in September of 2002 (which was a pretty bad recession for the area with layoffs galore).

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