Friday Link Roundup: Slow Sales, Foreclosures, Deceptive Stats

Got a bunch of things to share with everybody that have built up over the past week, so let’s just get right into it.

First up, a couple of stories that take a look at the big picture local numbers…

Aubrey Cohen, Seattle P-I: Washington sees nation’s largest drop in sales
Patricia Murphy, KUOW: Bad Real Estate Numbers

Next, a somewhat extreme anecdote to go along with the recent foreclosure stats:

Rolf Boone, The Olympian: 57 single-family lots in foreclosure in Lacey subdivision

I’m sure this piece will be interesting to regular readers here, as well. Aubrey takes a closer look at the north Seattle neighborhoods that seem to be the most resilient when we run the monthly neighborhood months of supply updates. The conclusion seems to be that despite the apparent strength, north Seattle isn’t much of a party for sellers.

Aubrey Cohen, Seattle P-I: The stats say North Seattle is still a seller’s market, even if nobody agrees

Lastly, here’s a couple of national pieces that have been brought up recently by a lot of people, including an NPR segment featuring Jill Keto, who you may recall from a January Seattle Times article.

Warren Olney, NPR: Homeownership and the American Dream
James Jacoby and Jill Landes, CNBC: CNBC Special Report: House of Cards

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About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. Tim also hosts the weekly improv comedy sci-fi podcast Dispatches from the Multiverse.

95 comments:

  1. 1

    THEY DON’T WANT E-VERIFY ON THE STIMULUS BAIL OUT BECAUSE IT WORSENS HOME FORECLOSURE RATES

    By the way, E-verify should be automatic on any government contract paid for by American taxpayers [as should a Buy American clause], but its not. E-verify is simple and totally fair to our grandchildren [the ones stuck with the bail out debt], if you’re not a legal citizen or don’t have a green card, you can’t get a stimulus bail out paid job.

    The money changers [banks] are horrified, they gave illegal loans to illegal aliens and E-verify would stab them in the bank heart. Its that simple in my book, but they’d never admit it.

    Its also very clear, its unfair to pay off anyone’s principle [without giving all the rest of us Americans similar stimulus checks] and they’ve already gutted savings’ interest rates to artificially prop RE and destroy retirements [we can’t afford to retire anymore gang]….so what do we do?

    Nothing, the idiots bought the homes thinking they’d make a killing and the elite want bail outs of foreclosures to keep their McMansions from becoming worthless. Let RE rot.

    If we’d controlled growth and kept an industrial base with 200,000,000 people in America [no immigration since 1990] we could have avoided this mess.

    Now our kids go to subpar overpopulated schools with no adequate tax base as they seek to increase the 13.9% unemployment [that’s 22 million Americans folks], with giveups and P/T desparates included, in the 7.6% unemployment rate [post NAFTA figure Clinton dreamed up as window dressing in 1998; CNN now uses the real BLS 13.9% unemployment figure too].

    Why should federal, state and county governments have 100% employment when the tax base is currently like 80-85% employed? Time to reduce government costs and lay off teachers, police, government administrators in droves; to be fair in my book.

    We had a 17% Great Depression unemployment rate, so the real 13.9% [it comes from the United states Bureau of Labor Statistics folks for December 2008] figure is darn close folks.

    We don’t need anymore open border clown growth stealing our jobs and lowering our incomes. Its time for an immediate sabattical from uncontrolled growth immigration, for our childrens’ sake. Recycling and over-priced hybrids aren’t green; they’re a greedy excuse to overpopulate Seattle and a desparate attempt to prop RE values. Depopulation can bring salmon back in our rivers though.

    Even the pro growth economists Greespan recently admitted he didn’t know what he’d done to destroy the economy. Its easy for me to tell you what he forgot; we’re out of fish, water, trees, energy, etc, etc…

    I suppose it takes the common sense from an engineer to straighen the economist wolves out in their clear path to America’s next Great Depression. By the way, I wrestle with my greed too, I’m a home owner in Seattle too.

  2. 2
    Ray Pepper says:

    CNBC Special Report that aired yesterday “House of Cards” was EXCELLENT!

    We are playing it at The Seattle Home Show and the Classic “Money Pit” with Tom Hanks.

    Tell me your coming and I will place free passes for you in Will Call. We have 12 left.

  3. 3
    Dave says:

    Softwareengineer

    – Anyone else want to point out the ridiculous assumption that our financial problems are from aliens (illegal and otherewise).
    -Interesting thought process – blame other group for our problems. Dude – this problem is homegrown – we did it to ourselves.
    -I hate briging this very overused analogy out but (if you are a student of history) you have heard the exact same thing before. Germany – early 1930’s. Africa – 1990’s (Hutu – Tutsi).
    -I sugest you look around and see whom you are keeping intellectual company with.
    -Thoughts?

    Dave

  4. 4
    vermillionsky says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 1

    softwareengineer, is there any problem you don’t attribute to immigrants? This is a serious question. You seem to bring immigration up whenever you post.

  5. 5
    singliac says:

    RE: vermillionsky @ 4
    I’ll answer that question for you. I mean, I’LL ANSWER THAT QUESTION FOR YOU

    Yes. He blames lots of problems on people who have the nerve to make babies. Fortunately there is quite a bit of overlap between these two groups in his mind. I’m glad I’m not the only one who gets annoyed with these rants.

  6. 6
    vermillionsky says:

    RE: singliac @ 5

    No babies and no immigration? That sounds like a recipe for a successful economy!

  7. 7
    Mikal says:

    RE: singliac @ 5 – He is nuts. At least there is no podcast.

  8. 8
    DrShort says:

    I’m a little surprised Tim hasn’t addressed Ardell’s bottom call and the front page coverage it got in the PI. Is there some sort of truce?

  9. 9
    Ray Pepper says:

    Wow “Ardell” has hit the BIG TIME. Now I know who she is. Front Page? Are you kidding me? Is all I have to say is WE ARE AT THE BOTTOM and 500 Realty GETS FRONT PAGE!. Heck ………….

    I hereby state…………….WE ARE OVERSOLD!! PRICES WILL BE GOING UP THIS SPRING!! HURRY!

    I need 500 Realty on the FRONT PAGE. It saves us alot of time sitting at The Home Show with our Big Toilet showing money going down the drain!

    Anyone who gets us on the Front Page of the PI gets The Company VIZIO TV we use at the Show. (and the toilet too). But, I warn you its tough. They already know we are a revenue killer for the Sunday Real Estate section.

  10. 10
    b says:

    That front page bottom call is one for the record books. We will have to revisit things next year around the burn barrel at the Hooverville downtown to see if she is right.

  11. 11
    Cris says:

    softwarengineer – Apparently you lost your job to an immigrant but beleive me they are not the creators of these problems. Btw, if you are as qualified as an immigrant SW engineer, let me know, we can get you something if you are interested..

  12. 12
    cheapseats says:

    RE: Ray Pepper @ 2 – Ray, I am heading down there if you have any passes left. How do I contact you?

  13. 13
    cheapseats says:

    RE: Ray Pepper @ 2 – Ray, I am heading down there if you have any passes left. How do I contact you?

  14. 14
    Alan says:

    RE: Ray Pepper @ 2

    Ray, what is your email address? My wife and I would like to go.

  15. 15
    Kary L. Krismer says:

    By DrShort @ 8:

    I’m a little surprised Tim hasn’t addressed Ardell’s bottom call and the front page coverage it got in the PI. Is there some sort of truce?

    Probably just shear exhaustion. ;-) (Assuming you meant truce with Ardell.)

    I don’t think doing the article was Aubrey’s call.

  16. 16
    Gene says:

    Ardell is basically saying “there won’t be any more big drops in the neighborhoods she services.” She is 100% convinced all the bigs drops are done.

    No, she doesn’t define what a “big” drop is of course – pretty much everything is left pretty fuzzy. Maybe she should go into politics…

  17. 17
    Tim says:

    the rationale she used in calling the “bottom” doesn’t make any sense to me. She basically is just pointing out where prices are currently attracting some buyers. That doesn’t mean that prices cannot fall further as the economy deteriorates.

  18. 18
    Civil Servant says:

    Mikal @ 7: Sshh, don’t give him any ideas.

  19. 19
    deejayoh says:

    By DrShort @ 8:

    I’m a little surprised Tim hasn’t addressed Ardell’s bottom call and the front page coverage it got in the PI. Is there some sort of truce?

    I don’t think Tim is the one who likes to argue with Ardell.

  20. 20
    EconE says:

    RE: b @ 10

    No doubt.

    1. Looking at foreclosure.com for 98033 and 98034 tells me we are far from bottom.

    2. Looking at the 750k+ market for Kirkland (SFR+Condo) there appears to be just over 250 listings not including builder inventory not on the MLS…both condos and SFR’s.

    3. In the last 3 months, sales in this range are about 7 per month. Sounds like a hefty MOS there.

    4. Did Ardell sell her house yet?

    Bottom?

    Yeah…sure.

    Personally…When I see a person in the industry either call bottom…or unrelentingly pester the SB commenters…it makes me want to research their RE holdings and their debt loads.

  21. 21
    The Tim says:

    RE: Tim @ 17 – That’s pretty much why I didn’t bother. Her teaser post intrigued me, but the “stats” post that gave her justification left me thinking, “huh?”

    That being said, I do have a plan for next week that is somewhat inspired by her bottom call, and will hopefully be more interesting.

  22. 22
    David Losh says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 1

    Any one can become an island of financial success as long as you don’t care about the world around you.

    There is a saying among st capitalists, ” we would rather give them welfare, than to be robbed in the street.”

    Here’s the part of your argument that makes absolutely no sense. How do you protect your financial freedom?

  23. 23
    Jonness says:

    “If we’d controlled growth and kept an industrial base with 200,000,000 people in America [no immigration since 1990] we could have avoided this mess.”

    SoftwareEngineer:

    Let me guess. God said go murder other people on the grounds that they are not Jews. The blood of the inferior races ran knee deep in the streets, and the chosen race won favor with the creator. Then God passed the chosen favor on to the gentiles. Soon enough, whitey came to America and exterminated the native population of heathens laying claim to the land in the name of the now white god with a grey beard (God underwent the same depigmenting process later made famous by Michael Jackson). God was so impressed by whitey’s ability to exterminate the other races, he decided to favor him over the Jews and provide him with the gift of Negro slaves to harvest his fields. It was at this point that God ordered Jesus to dye his hair from dark brown to red and undergo the depigmenting process of his skin, as evidenced by the painting of the last supper hanging on the wall above your dinner table. Everything was perfect until the people with the funny eyes came to America in 1990 looking for jobs and opportunity.

    I’m an immigrant to this country just as you are. My forefathers walked here across the Bearing Strait over 20K years ago and laid claim to the land prior to being exterminated in the name of God’s will, white freedom and white independence. Am I more deserving than you because my blood has been here longer? Or is it that I’m less deserving because I’m 1/8th Native American Indian?

    If curbing immigration is the answer to the US’ problems, then perhaps we should have started by exterminating the people of the Mayflower who showed up exhausted and hungry looking for a free handout from the local residents. If that idea does not appeal to you, then why do you turn away those now immigrating to this country in hopes of building a better life?

  24. 24
    Me says:

    RE: software engineer’s suggestion that keeping out immigrants would help the economy. I think that any of the thousand people who work for participate in the slice of economy that benefits from google would disagree with you. Guess where one of Google’s co-founder’s was born? Moscow USSR.

    Immigrants have long been a source of strength for the american culture, intellect and economy.

  25. 25
    Andy says:

    Yeah,
    Software engineer is a dope; With the best talent for science/software/medicine coming from overseas; america has to get its fill of these types. No reason to stop any immigration. I would agree that we need a smaller government (far less government workers stealing our money in taxes) and less taxes for all

    Government got us in this mess – artificially low rates, fannie+freddie buying crappy conforming paper, homeownership (for all) rules for banks, tax havens (in homeownership); and the list goes on. No reason to blame bank CEO’s; they are window dressing/fodder

    My fix: Abolish the income tax; keep a very limited government; military, courts and police. Thats all we need – KILL ALL ENTITLEMENTS/PORK PROJECTS IMMEDIATELY

    Can you imagine the economic growth if government just gets outta the way…?
    Pay as you go, no more deficits. By the way, wasn’t Obama going to fix/balance the budget?

  26. 26
    SG says:

    Another example of a Seattle immigrant figure, Swiss father and a Jewish-American mother whose family came from the Eastern European city of Pinsk (today in Belarus) – Steve Ballmer

  27. 27
    shawn says:

    For a nation that was stolen, the only way I see for redemption is to open this land up to those less fortunate. For this world to survive it must become one world, and maybe this nation will be the melting pot that will be the genesis of that unity. What is the alternative? A world that forever is at odds with itself?

  28. 28
    shawn says:

    To expand a bit. My thinking was in regards to Frank Drake’s equation. I enjoy thinking about destiny, can it be altered, what is ours, the paradoxes, etc. That is why I hope for us to come together as humans.

  29. 29
    Ray Pepper says:

    RE: Alan @ 14

    Cheapseats and Allan I will arrive at 2pm tomorrow. Call me at 253 678 8367 when you arrive and I will get you in the door free with my Vendor passes. We have given out 30 free passes to Bubble Heads and others and they are all sitting in will call. Were down to just the Vendor passes.

  30. 30
    Jonness says:

    I graduated with a degree in CS about 3 years ago. I attended school with many very bright students from all over the world. The brightest guy I met was from India, and his passion for math was very enjoyable to be around. I got a 4.0 in all my math courses, but my abilities paled in comparision to his. It was a real pleasure to work problems with him, because his solutions were always far superior to the textbook methods. His enjoyment for math was contagious. I once asked him what he thought of a differential equations course, and he replied, “oh, it’s great fun!” The rest of us thought of it as more of a great nightmare. LOL! The guy would literally blurt out the answer before the teacher could finish writing the entire problem on the board. It was a little humbling, but I was also aware that he would go home and read advanced mathematics books for fun in his spare time. With passion and dedication like that, of course he was good at it. He pulled 20 credit loads and worked two jobs to help put himself through. I’m not sure where he found the spare time to read extra math books.

    Perhaps the second brightest student I met was a local American guy. He was an extremely hard worker as well. We worked many problems together after class and enjoyed sharing solutions to our homework problems. It’s fun to see how someone else solved the exact same problem. We formed a little group of friends that would stay after class and work on problems for fun. You can learn a lot that way. He used to amaze me because he would spot more efficient ways to write the algorithms in real time as the teacher was writing out an algorthm on the white board. He was a very good programmer and really inspired me to try to write efficient algorithms. I’ll never be as good at it as him though.

    One friend in our group was from Mexico. He was a great guy and finished his first two years of college in a year (i.e 30 credit loads). I was always a little amazed by that because 15 credits taxes me to the gills. He ended up dropping down to 15 credits for the final 2 years, but he also worked as a tutor and had a high-maintenance GF that demanded much of his time.

    I don’t think anybody makes it through the program without working hard, but it appeared to me that foreign students tended to work a little harder on average than US residents. Many local guys, although quite capable, just don’t find the passion or want to work that hard.

    As a case in point, a local guy in my data structures class told me, on the day of the final exam, he thought he would flunk the course. I was surprised to see him in the next series and had kind of dismissed his capabilities. Then one day a friend and I were working out a very lengthy solution to a complex homework problem. The guy walked by and said, “Oh that. I just divided by 2 right up front.” I couldn’t help but blurt out, “that’s absolutely brilliant.” He replied, “Oh I just got lucky I guess.” I began to pay him more attention and soon realized he was a lazy closet genius. We soon became fast friends and stayed late in the labs working on many deviant computer problems together. Pair programming with him was a highlight. If I could come up with a crazy gimmick like a device to cheat the casinos, his lazy streak vanished, and he would become absolutely engrossed in the project keeping me up at nights attempting to find an eloquent solution. That quarter, his interest switched on, and he outscored me in the data structures class. He currently works at Microsoft, and IMO, they are lucky to have him.

    My point is, where you come from has very little to do with your potential. Srinivasa Ramanujan was from India and almost went undiscovered because his formulas were difficult to decipher from that of a crazy person. If it weren’t for them being too elaborate for any crazy person to invent, his groundbreaking work would be lost to history.

    Several of my idols immigrated here from other countries. Albert Einstein and Nikola Tesla are but a few who come to mind. Einstein’s example taught me about the necessity of believing in yourself when you embark upon thinking outside the box, and Tesla’s example taught me that it’s OK to think where nobody else cares to go.

    In all seriousness, where would this country be without immigration? We have lot’s of talent in this country, but there are also a lot of talented individuals elsewhere in the world. SoftwareEngineer appears to me to be a very intelligent and capable person. But I just don’t get where this prejudice against foreigners comes from. If you ask me, it’s threat based and irrational thinking from an otherwise rational person.

  31. 31
    economist says:

    -I hate briging this very overused analogy out but (if you are a student of history) you have heard the exact same thing before. Germany – early 1930’s. Africa – 1990’s (Hutu – Tutsi).

    Just to straighten things out a bit, the Tutsis in Rwanda and Burundi are not immigrants as we usually use the term but an aristocracy of foreign origin like the Normans of medieval England. Not that this excuses killing anyone – and historically there has been a lot of killing going both ways – but you need to know this to understand the real issues.

    As for immigration, Americans have every right to be opposed to illegal immigration. It is an affront to the rule of law, and damages the interests of both citizens, legal immigrants, and the illegal immigrants themselves who are just used as pawns by big business. The way to stop illegal immigration is simply to require verification of legal work status of everyone looking for employment and exacting very heavy fines on employers violating this.

  32. 32
    PublicEnemy#1 says:

    RE: EconE @ 20

    The problem with Ardell is that she refuses to engage in real discussion. She won’t give you actual proof, she just claims to have “done exhaustive research”. When she gets questioned, she tells you she is not there “to argue with people” or the favorite catch-all “Let’s just agree to disagree”.

    She’s a hack, and Dustin is letting her destroy the credibility of RCG by allowing her to go unchallenged AND allowing her to cherry pick the replies she gets.

    Has her house had an NOD yet?

  33. 33
    Jonness says:

    Economist:

    What do you feel would be a realistic fine for the illegal offender and for the law-breaking employer?

  34. 34
    economist says:

    For the illegal employee, nothing as they are just pawns. But it would be cause for deportation.

    For the illegal employer, $1,000,000 for each employee.

    Just MHO of course.

  35. 35
    jon says:

    Immigration laws are just a way of people to take away the ladder after they have gotten in. There is no difference between the people have already immigrated, or their descendants, and those wanting to immigrate except that the earlier ones have used the system to deny to others what was freely given to them. The faux outrage over actions that are illegal is just a thin veil over selfishness that is made possible only by unjust laws. People who immigrated from Europe long ago were fleeing corrupt and cruel systems just as Latin American and Chinese immigrants are today.

    The near bankruptcy of places like California is related to illegal immigrant, but the true cause is that people don’t want to make the choices needed to live within their budgets, and instead prefer to place the blame on others.

  36. 36
    Roger says:

    I’VE BEEN WONDERING THIS WHOLE TIME

    What the hell is a “softwar” and why does it need to be engineered?

  37. 37
    Alan says:

    RE: Ray Pepper @ 29

    We are going to come on Sunday.

  38. 38
    DaveyDave says:

    There must be immigration implications somewhere in this article from Bloomberg… But its primary focus is on ‘Loan Modifications’ and what the current bank/government approaches are.
    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601213&sid=aIex9YRATOo8&refer=home

    Here’s a telling quote from a banker’s perspective, I think:

    “We’re trying to make the financial decisions you made when you bought your house more affordable for you, not undo your bad real estate investments,” Wagner said. “When people say, ‘My home is underwater, therefore I can’t afford it,’ what they are saying is they have buyer’s remorse.”

    And here’s a telling quote from a borrower’s perspective:

    “If I walk away from my house, the bank will probably end up selling it as a foreclosure for $180,000 just to get it off their books,” said Muise, the exterminator. “You’d think they’d say, ‘Hey, maybe if we brought Jim’s mortgage down to $250,000 he could survive these tough times and keep paying his loan.’ But I know that’s not going to happen.”

  39. 39
    EconE says:

    RE: PublicEnemy#1 @ 32

    PE#1…

    No clue if she has a NOD. I wasn’t referring to her specifically in my comment. All I ever knew is that she stated was selling her house a while back. Never heard how that turned out.

  40. 40
    Cris says:

    @Economist
    Yeah stop the illegal immigration and next day you will cry why the hell fast food prices have increased or just to paint your home costs $40k due to high labor..

    I think let’s just share the thoughts that we just really feel we are knowledgeable.. Things don’t work as you read in books or discuss with your friends drinking beer. Illegal immigrants are a big part of American economy that runs mighty capitalism wheels..

    Let’s aim the arrow to lenders, ignorant home buyers in big bubble and government which had no control over lenders for many years – not the people working under $7/hr to make a living and cleanning your mess.

  41. 41
    Scotsman says:

    Meanwhile, back on the national level we’re hosed. Ardell’s dream of a housing bottom will become a nightmare. After taking another look at things, I’m with Sniglet and Eleua- 80% off peak. Even in Seattle.

    “The real 2008 federal budget deficit was $5.1 trillion, not the $455 billion previously reported by the Congressional Budget Office, according to the “2008 Financial Report of the United States Government” as released by the U.S. Department of Treasury. ”

    http://www.worldnetdaily.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=88851

    No one can spend their way out of debt, not even the U.S. government, let alone the average homeowner. 2009 will be a year to remember.

  42. 42
    softwarengineer says:

    DEFAMATION OF CHARACTER

    Let’s keep this blog to Tim’s rules: No Name Calling.

    Besides, with 4 million jobs lost this last year; whose job are the 2-3 Million/yr foreign uncontrolled growth going to take next? Yours?

    I have a wonderful Latina girlfriend who totally agrees with me by the way; she doesn’t want her kids’ future down the drain.

    So don’t you ‘name callers” be using the Race Card blatantly, it has absolutely nothing to do with Seattle’s overpopulation problem, but if you do use it, it tells me your blog has no substance and you’ve also broke the Freedom of Speech code and ethics laws in America. Ask an attorney if you don’t believe me.

  43. 43
    Mark says:

    I love the PI quote attributed to Crellin. He acts as though he predicted the whole thing. I’m sure somebody can reference to where he predicted an upturn.

  44. 44
    Mark says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 1 – Nice rant, SW Eng. You might consider that the elites who run things like illegal and legal immigration. They want a larger population. It drives down the cost of labor — your wage and mine. It also gives them a larger market to sell crap to.

  45. 45
    Dave Lincoln says:

    First of all, gotta back up #42. I don’t care when your people came over the bearing (sic) straits, Jonness, but they weren’t the first people to live in North American either (depending on your definition of people) and it wasn’t 20,000 years ago. Who was Kennewick Man? Look him up (no he is not a Mexican illegal immigrant – they are mostly all across the river in Pasco ;-) What did your people have against the Neandertals and the sabertoothed wooly-ass mammoths that you felt like you had to kick the every-loving s__t outta them. Genocide, I tell’s ya – it’s egregious!

    The white people took over this continent fair and square, but on to the present time, mmkay? Most people in the US are against illegal immigration. Their main reason is not just overpopulation (as in 300 million now, going on 500 million soon … visit China and you will see the problem). It is a valid reason. However, right now 95% of the illegal alien population is from Mexico or due south of there. Indeed, many are good, decent people, are definitely hardworking, and I would possibly do the same in their shoes, or moccasins (excuse me, “Jonness Who Makes Long Stupid Posts”).

    Problem is, 80-90 % of the Mexican illegals do not come here to be American; that’s the best way I can put it. They don’t have any desire to learn the language and become decent citizens. Most Americans do not want their country to become Mexico. That is nothing against Mexico. However, if I wanted to live there, I would move to Mexico, but I don’t right now The other problem is the H1 visa business and that relates more (by a little bit) to the topic at hand. Employers like Microsoft want to keep the wages down – it is total horse_hockey when they say that they “can’t find any good people for the jobs”. They mean they “can’t find any good employees at the low pay rate for the jobs”.

    There are plenty of good engineers and smart Americans that would become good engineers if the jobs were out there, and they didn’t have to worry about training their foreign replacement and getting canned so easily. The same goes for the software business.

    BTW, software work is not engineering, so the moniker does not make sense to me. If you want me to explain the difference, I will.

    Good luck, softwaredeveloper, in dealing with the posters that will call you names when they don’t have good arguments. Some do have arguements, but they still like the name-callling; it brings them back to a happier place from their childhoods, I guess (don’t know for sure – I am no “Psychological Engineer!”

  46. 46
    David Losh says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 42

    You just invoked the race card. refrence to a Latina and invoking the horror of losing 4 million jobs, lost this last year. Whose job are the 2-3 Million/yr foreign uncontrolled growth going to take next? Yours?

    Doctors, lawyers, software engineers, corporate management, hedge fund managers, stock brokers, are all documented before licensing for a variety of reasons.

    You are talking about workers.

    You are talking about construction, farming, poultry, meat packing, and fabrication. You’re talking about the work people the world over refuse to do.

    Higher education is stilted towards the non labor sector. Computers are the new labor saving devise. Computers create models for crop rotation, chemical balance for the soil, planting schedules, and the best machine to get the job done.

    So how many farmers have lost thier jobs to corporate agri business? How many auto workers lost jobs to computer enhanced design features that require less and less skilled labor to complete a task?

    I’ll make a bold statement that software engineering has created more job loss than illegal immigration.

    We need workers. We need people who will do a job and do it well. Americans, like Europeans, think that manual labor is beneath them. They want to be the lords and ladies of the manor.

    If we are to become great as a nation we will need to see and equiliberium of opportunity in Mexico. When Mexico is the economic equal to the United States and Canada then we will have infuence in the world.

    Our policies towards Mexico are a disgrace. If it’s not race then what is it? Is it life style? The lifestyle we enjoy on vacations?

    If people from Mexico want to come here to work we need them. God bless them, and thank you for coming here to help us.

  47. 47
    shawn says:

    SWE can attempt to transfer his anger toward others here, blaming them for his tarnished image, but it is “his” words that have done him harm. I suggest you accept one fundamental truth: offensive statements tend to offend polite people.

  48. 48
    jon says:

    RE: Dave Lincoln @ 45

    “Problem is, 80-90 % of the Mexican illegals do not come here to be American; that’s the best way I can put it. They don’t have any desire to learn the language and become decent citizens.”

    Can you blame them? They live under the fear that everything that they have worked for can be legally taken away by Americans without a moments warning. If they were treated as the equals that they are, then they could be expected to integrate themselves better, but as it is they are tolerated only if they hide out among people of their own language. That their kids respond to that treatment by joining gangs is hardly a surprise.

  49. 49
    Dave Lincoln says:

    Jon. I don’t blame anyone for wanting to stay off the radar of gov’t in any way possible, and that includes American citizens too. However, that is not the reason, in my opinion, that illegals don’t try to fit in to America. I think they have no love or respect for this country (most, not all.).

    There is really not much for an illegal to worry about (as far as deportation, etc.) unless he commits a major felony, and even then he has the option of getting deported rather than thrown in jail for 20 years. What a deal! Too bad they don’t have it for white people or legal immigrants!

  50. 50
    microsofties says:

    @ 46

    David Losh, your hypothesis that technology/software engineering has destroyed jobs is a joke. Technology CAN drive efficiencies in processes like manufacturing, but it doesn’t cause a net reduction in the amount of jobs in this country.

    Lets examine a Toyota plant that assembles raw materials into cars for public consumption. Something in the neighborhood of 95% of the car manufacturing process is done with robotics and other mechnical assistance, thus it takes less human beings to manufacture each car. However, because Toyota can manufacture more cars, that means more inputs / raw materials are required. Who is packing those materials, shipping them, loading them, etc? 50 years ago, more workers on the assembly line had to manufacture the cars and could not handle as many inputs, so those supply chain jobs weren’t scalable. Capacity was fixed, so resources needed to be fixed to match demand.

    You have absolutely no handle on supply chain economics and how efficiency can enable scale, which enables greater reach or need for certain types of jobs. Where there once were no jobs, NEW jobs that were DIFFERENT replaced the old due to technological advances.

    Instead, let’s lambast technology as we strive for “equiliberium” you emplore us to find in a country that has never once found a suitable, sustainable one even when advanced technologies didn’t exist. Here’s some more oats for your feed bag: Read up about the roaring 20’s and how it all came crashing down. Thousands and thousands of hard working Americans could not find jobs because there just weren’t any…Not because the jobs they could find were beneath them.

    “I’ll make a bold statement” that you are so full of hot air you could single-handedly reinflate the value of all the homes in the Puget Sound area by yourself if you stopped trolling this board and put your true skills to use.

  51. 51
    jon says:

    A quick google yields these factoids:

    2.2 million immigrants were deported in the decade ended 2007.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/14/us/14immig.html

    If I was here illegally, I would be pretty motivated to avoid anyone speaking English if I could avoid it.

    “a recent Migration Policy Institute study showed that a much-touted campaign of raids against criminal fugitives was a failure. It netted mostly the maids and laborers who are no reasonable person’s idea of a national threat.”

    http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/06/opinion/06fri2.html?_r=1

  52. 52
    David Losh says:

    RE: microsofties @ 50

    The point about technology was toward the handle “softwarengineer.”

  53. 53
    Dave Lincoln says:

    “Our policies towards Mexico are a disgrace. If it’s not race then what is it? Is it life style? The lifestyle we enjoy on vacations?

    If people from Mexico want to come here to work we need them. God bless them, and thank you for coming here to help us.”

    David, I don’t know how you grew up, but some of us have done jobs like hand-picking crops (cukes, tomatoes, etc.) and some of us clean our own houses and apartments and do our own gardening and lawn care.

    No, we don’t need them. Americans will be needing work in a bad way; just give it 1/2 a year.

    “I’ll make a bold statement that software engineering has created more job loss than illegal immigration.

    We need workers. We need people who will do a job and do it well. Americans, like Europeans, think that manual labor is beneath them. They want to be the lords and ladies of the manor.”

    Speak for yourself. I think we do have a lot of people like that, but right now, in the welfare state, it doesn not pay to work for $10/hr outside when you can get the same by sitting in front of the TV (or posting on this website ;-) on welfare.

    Repeat after me: Programming is not engineering.

  54. 54
    Mikal says:

    RE: Dave Lincoln @ 45 – Describe fair and square. Screwing people out of legal treaty’s and genocide? You just made all of your comments irrevelant.

  55. 55
    Lake Hills Renter says:

    By Dave Lincoln @ 53:

    “Repeat after me: Programming is not engineering.”

    Repeat after me: Many software engineers do more than programming.

  56. 56
    Dave Lincoln says:

    That was kind of tongue-in-cheek, Mikai…

  57. 57
    Dave Lincoln says:

    “Many software engineers do more than programming. ”

    You mean, many software people do more than programming? – I can believe that. But, software architecture, development, programming, debugging, integration, etc. – none of that is engineering. I can tell you that as a real engineer.

    My basic take on it is that engineers work with natural principles (physics) and mathematics (that describe such principles to analyze and design – computer people do not, unless they are programming an application that is specifically modelling an engineering process (i.e. a guy writing finite-element code – but how many are there? – may be said to be doing engineering).

    Capeech?

  58. 58
    Mikal says:

    Please describe the fair and square of the taking of the land from the natives by the Europeans.

  59. 59
    Dave Lincoln says:

    Dude, “tongue-in-cheek”, google it, I got stuff to do.

  60. 60
    Lake Hills Renter says:

    An engineer is “a person who carries through an enterprise by skillful or artful contrivance” according to Merriam-Webster. If you don’t like the definition I suppose you can take it up with them. But if you want to be literal about it, it’s people who work with engines, not natural principles or mathematics and such.

    I personally don’t care what my title is, as long as I get paid. Although I do find the indignity of it by some rather entertaining. =P

  61. 61
    Mikal says:

    I thought you were agreeing with post #1 and that BS. Sometimes the sarcasm isn’t so biting. Sorry.

  62. 62
    Objectivity says:

    Off topic: does anyone know about the potential tolling across 520? Who do we complain to?

  63. 63
    Dave Lincoln says:

    Mikai, I was agreeing with most of #1, softwareguy’s post, but the reason I wrote that about the white man and America, is because, looking at the history of the world, that seems to be the normal course of events, it seems. It was not out of the ordinary what happened here, for the time in history – not to mention, people should not get so much on Americans’ case, more the American government (who broke treaties left and right).

    Yes, LakeHills, I could take it up with Merriam-Webster, but I don’t think I’d get anywhere. I use my definition after being an engineer for 20-odd years – you would think I would know more about what engineering is than Merriam or Webster, haha. Maybe they are software people themselves – you guys are in cahoots ;-)

    As for your last paragraph, think about it. If you hear people talking about someone who can “program” an automatic sprinkler system or thermostat as a “software” guy, you might take offense too. I am proud of being a real engineer, and I especially don’t like when people talk about gov’t “engineering the stimulus” or “social engineering” and that sort of thing. Then, again, a lot of things piss me off, as you may well know ;-)

  64. 64
    Everett_Tom says:

    Dern, wish I check this sooner..

    I can tell you that as a real engineer

    Now You’ve got me intrigued. What type of Train do you drive? (sorry, Long running joke with a co-worker).

    What qualifies as real Engineering? (Says the Electrical Engineer who writes software, wondering if he needs to change his title..)

  65. 65
    Everett_Tom says:

    Note, I saw your definition, but from what I’ve seen software engineering can encompass that, obviously for you it doesn’t.. hence the question.

  66. 66
    EconE says:

    By microsofties @ 50:

    Who is packing those materials, shipping them, loading them, etc?

    More machines perhaps? ;^)

    I’ve got no beef with people who create things that make life more efficient, whether they are programmers, engineers…whatever. Technology doesn’t “cause” layoffs. I blame the people with business degrees and Corporate Executives/Boards that are all about using the technology in order to increase their own personal “bottom lines”.

    For example…simplified to the utmost of course…let’s say you have a small business with three people. An owner and two employees. Don’t worry about taxes or details.

    Here’s the assumptions…whatever.

    The company produces and sells 100 of whatever per hour at a dollar each but there is demand for 150.

    Total expenses are $60 at current demand of 100. $15 per employee ($30) and $30 for everything else.

    Owner pockets $40

    Now…let’s say the owner can get some “technology” that will double efficiency so original output can be achieved by one person. Let’s also assume that the cost of the technology is $5/hr

    Owner could fire a person. Sell $100 worth an hour at $50/hr expenses.

    Owner pockets $50.

    So…in a perfect world…why not buy the technology. Keep both workers at $15/hr.

    Now, with two people employed, the 150 units demanded can be produced.

    So…now…$150 is sold. expenses are $30 for labor, $45 for other prior expenses (increased by 50% to compensate for 50% increase in production…overly simplified of course) and $5 for the new technology for a total of $80.

    Owner Pockets $70

    I’m sure I flubbed everything up, and my example is horribly flawed…but basically…what I’m saying…is that the technology you provide the world isn’t always used in the best, nor the most beneficial ways after it gets into the hands of the MBA totin’ executives who decide how to use it “best”.

    Junket anyone?

  67. 67
    Lake Hills Renter says:

    Dave: I know what you’re saying, just some good-natured ribbing. =) Job names went really off the tracks when every job under the sun became an “engineer”, i.e. sanitation engineer. It’s political correctness in job names IMO.

    As far as “programmer” goes, I don’t really care who calls themselves that to be honest. It’s an action, not a title. Programming a sprinkler system, as your example, is technically programming, at least to me. I write software, which is also programming. As far as titles go, I think of myself as a software developer. I suppose the construction or real estate industries could take offense at that, but after the last few years of the market — screw ’em. ;)

  68. 68
    SteveH says:

    Gotta say, I am recently back from some years in New Zealand. I’ve lived most of my life in the Seattle area. We raised our daughter in Lake Forest Park. Today, for the first time in years, drove to Arlington to sell a car. I was astounded with what I saw along I-5. I know this might sound old to lots of you, but this place, the Seattle area, is now c*ap. There is housing from Seattle to Arlington. There are malls and gas stations and McDonald’s and condos and ……. What have we become? I am dumbstruck with what we have turned this once beautiful and laid back place into. This really, really, su*ks. This is not the area I grew up in. There are police cameras lining Hwy 99 in Lynnwood. There are sh*tbox condo and housing developments and traffic, on a SATURDAY, that I could not believe. We have ruined paradise. There are too many people. God help us because we don’t seem able to help ourselves.

  69. 69
    jon says:

    If Dave Lincoln is licensed, he call himself by what his license says. Otherwise he is just a whatever-it-takes-to-do-the-job guy like the rest of us.

  70. 70
    shawn says:

    When people talk about Mexicans coming here, do they mean the here that the US stole from Mexico? Just wondering.

  71. 71
    Alan says:

    LHR,

    In NC, “engineer” is a legal description of someone with a specific professional license and it is illegal to bill yourself as an engineer unless you have that license. To get the license you have to apprentice under another engineer for some number of years and then pass a test (like you have to pass the bar to be a lawyer). It is a meaningful title there.

    By the way, there is no such thing as a software engineer in NC (or at least there wasn’t when I lived there).

  72. 72
    vermillionsky says:

    RE: Alan @ 71

    RE: Roger @ 36
    RE: Lake Hills Renter @ 60

    Engineers are most certainly not people who “work with engines, not natural principles or mathematics and such.” That sounds more like a mechanic. I like Shaw’s definition of engineering: “Creating cost-effective solutions to practical problems by applying scientific knowledge to building things in the service of mankind.” Perhaps you meant that there has to be some “building things” component to the work?

    The term “software engineering” has been in existence since the NATO science committee first hosted a conference on the subject in 1968:

    In that conference, the term was a goal for what the discipline should be come, not necessarily what it was at that time (nor what it is now, really). Software engineering is a specific discipline involving various aspects of software development (software architecture, design, test, etc.). Someone who is a programmer may or may not also be a “software engineer,” but programming is not software engineering. However, software engineering is not really like traditional engineering disciplines either, because software engineers don’t practice it the same way (for more detailed explanation of that.. read the paper I linked).

    Licensing of the title “engineer” varies from state to state, and usually involves taking the Principles and Practices of Engineering (PE) Exam in your specific discipline. There is no PE exam for software engineering, although the computer engineering exam does have a section on software. Licensing of software engineers is a hot debate topic among software engineering researchers (I’m not one of them, but I work with some).

    In my opinion, the PE exams and licensing structures were designed for more traditional specializations in certain engineering disciplines involved in building public projects (like civil engineers who designed bridges and electrical engineers who worked on the power grid). There are now so many different specializations in the various engineering disciplines that the exams and certifications only make sense if you are going into those fields that traditionally needed them (e.g. power systems and bridge building).

    sorry for the long post, but it happens to be a subject I’m particularly interested in.

  73. 73
    vermillionsky says:

    RE: Lake Hills Renter @ 67

    Oh, and most people who are called “sanitation engineers” wouldn’t fit the definition of “engineer” I linked b/c there’s no “applying scientific knowledge to build things” in garbage collection. However, I did know a civil engineer once who devised techniques for collection and storage of toxic waste who often joked about being a “sanitation engineer.”

  74. 74
    vermillionsky says:

    By Dave Lincoln @ 57:

    “Many software engineers do more than programming. ”

    You mean, many software people do more than programming? – I can believe that. But, software architecture, development, programming, debugging, integration, etc. – none of that is engineering. I can tell you that as a real engineer.

    My basic take on it is that engineers work with natural principles (physics) and mathematics (that describe such principles to analyze and design – computer people do not, unless they are programming an application that is specifically modelling an engineering process (i.e. a guy writing finite-element code – but how many are there? – may be said to be doing engineering).

    Capeech?

    For the most part I agree with you.. most software development does not apply actual engineering principles. I disagree with saying that all those things you listed are not engineering. Automotive, rail, and aviation systems (the application domains I currently work in as an electrical & computer engineer) most certainly involve architecture (e.g. electronic), development, integration of subsystems, testing (not debugging.. there is a difference, but proper software development should include testing, not debugging, anyway). All of those steps are part of a good engineering process. Perhaps software developers do not always apply engineering principles when they do them, but they are most definitely part of engineering.

  75. 75
    softwarengineer says:

    SOFTWARENGINEER’S BACKGROUND

    I’m a Mechanical Engineer (BSME) and a Nuclear Engineer (Post Graduate in NucE); but work as a systems engineer manager of managers. I coined softwarengineer when internet was first going in the mid nineties, because I own the handle now and no one else can use it….maybe I should sell it on eBay? LOL

    P.S. I invented computer aided manufacturing in the late seventies before CATIA and CADAM were dreamed up. I should have gotten real rich for that, but us engineers working for corporations don’t get patent rights.

    I guess that makes me a real engineer, albeit after age 30, most scientists and engineers stop inventing….lol [ask Einstein]….

  76. 76
    Jonness says:

    Dave Lincoln @45:

    Test results showed that the remains of Kennewick Man are approximately 8,400 radiocarbon years or 9,300 calendar years old. It is believed that the first Native Americans arrived during the last ice-age, approximately 20,000 – 30,000 years ago through a land-bridge across the Bering Sound.

    As for Native American Indians wiping out the Neanderthals, Saber tooth Tigers, and Wooly Mammoths, please post a link to legitmate scientific evidence that confirms your claims.

    As for white people conquering the continent fair and square, by the same token, Osama Bin Laden murdered thousands of people in New York fair and square. Hitler killed millions of Jews fair and square. Pol Pot killed 2 million of his own people between 1975 and 1979 fair and square. What’s your point?

    SoftwareEngineer believes non-native US residents are inferior to US residents when it comes to engineering. I recently went to school with people from all over the world, and I can tell you if you believe people from other countries are intellectually inferior to people in the US, then you have a lot to learn about life.

    I’ve never stated I’m against adopting intelligent immigration policies in this country. I’m against capping the population and not allowing ANYBODY new into the country. IMO, that would ultimately destroy the US and cause it to lose its ranking in the world. Education and innovation are key to a strong America. Religious dogma, lack of quality education, intellectual stagnation, and sense of entiltement are key to a weak America.

    Whether you like it or not, we live in a global economy, and just because you were born with white skin doesn’t automatically entitle you to a high-paying Microsoft job. For that, you have to have an IQ of 130+ and work your tail off. I didn’t make the rules, I’m the guy who is stuck abiding by them like everybody else. I learned a long time ago that nobody owes me a living. For that, I must toil. BTW, I’m 7/8ths white and look to be 100%. Understanding this might help you to limit your racial hatred against me.

    As for software work not being engineering, there are different kinds of software work. If you don’t believe a portion of that work represents engineering, then I would seriously question where you got your education and in what year.

    I walked out of UW computer science with a 3.95 GPA. Before you refer to me as stupid, you should ask yourself if you are capable of accomplishing the same.

  77. 77
    Lake Hills Renter says:

    re “engines”: I was simply quoting the dictionary definition of engineer, note 3a:

    1: a member of a military group devoted to engineering work
    2 obsolete : a crafty schemer : plotter
    3 a: a designer or builder of engines, b: a person who is trained in or follows as a profession a branch of engineering, c: a person who carries through an enterprise by skillful or artful contrivance
    4: a person who runs or supervises an engine or an apparatus

    As for sanitation engineer, I obviously didn’t seriously mean that was engineering.

    For people familiar with design patterns in software development, a definite parallel can be drawn between architecture and/or engineering and modern software design and development practices (since that’s where much of it originated).

    And now that people are comparing GPAs, I see this conversation has reached its inevitable point of absurdity.

  78. 78
    Jonness says:

    “And now that people are comparing GPAs, I see this conversation has reached its inevitable point of absurdity.”

    I think it’s relevant that someone claiming:

    * to be a “real” engineer (unlike us lowly unintelligent software people)
    * believes the Indians genocided the Neanderthal Man
    * believes Kennewick man arrived before the Native American Indians
    * believes he’s entitled to a high paying job because he’s white
    * refers to me as stupid

    Seriously asks himself if he could go through UW computer science today and walk out with a high GPA. The fact is, anybody who believes the nonsense above couldn’t even make it into the program. So just how and where did this guy get into engineering school and become better than the rest of us? I 100% believe he is a janitor and is simply making false claims about himself in order to build up his virtual character.

  79. 79
    mukoh says:

    I think this.
    If we put softwar engineer and david lush in one room together and just listened to them talk it could be some real entertainment

  80. 80
    Everett_Tom says:

    Eh… I’m with LHR, as long as they pay me.. I’m ok with just about whatever title they want to slap on that..

    I just really wanted to know what kind of Engineer was a “real Engineer” (aka what Dave Lincoln does for a living). Or, if as others have commented, he used that since he’s got his PE license..

  81. 81
    Dave Lincoln says:

    Oh, man, this is gonna take a while (good posts all):

    Jonness says: “It is believed that the first Native Americans arrived …” whoa, hold on right there, partner. The first NATIVE Americans ARRIVED? that is illogical right there. If they were native, they would not have to arrive, right? They’d freaking be there already, as if grown out of the ground or evolved from some type of hairy ape dudes. Plus, the Kenniwick man could have kicked your Bering -Straight-crossing ancestors any day of the week (assuming they had calendars back then).

    Yes, I could have gotten a CS degree, but I became an engineer instead 3.8 GPA, and that includes an F on a 3-credit project class! Not that I’m proud of the “F”, just saying that it’d been higher without that.

    Back to immigration – this country could add 1/2 a million or so immigrants a year with a stable (meaning 0-growth population), because without immigration we would already be negative in population growth (go to numbersusa.com) However, 3 million illegal per year and 1 to 2 million legal is a different story.

  82. 82
    Dave Lincoln says:

    “I 100% believe he is a janitor and is simply making false claims about himself in order to build up his …. ”

    That would be “janitorial engineer”, a-hole! haha, and I never called you stupid, just your posts. Also, Jonness, I joke around in some of my posts; come on, anyone with a GPA above, heck, 3.6, would know that!!! ;-)

  83. 83
    Dave Lincoln says:

    Lake Hills, I totally agree about the politically correct reason for all the fancy titles. All the people that work at Lowes or Home Depot are “associates” apparently So, you can’t just go talk to the guy in lighting, you’ve go to talk to the “associate” in lighting, then, for questions about PVC fittings, you’ve got to talk to the “junior partner in plumbing” … Hey, stick with me, I’m on a roll…. the last thing I had to do at the store was buy some galvanized deck screws, so they sent me to the “hardware department assistant to the travelling secretary” Yes, I used to watch too much TV. I’m good now. ;-)

  84. 84
    Dave Lincoln says:

    whoa, just caught this one:

    “Whether you like it or not, we live in a global economy, and just because you were born with white skin doesn’t automatically entitle you to a high-paying Microsoft job. For that, you have to have an IQ of 130+ and work your tail off. I didn’t make the rules, I’m the guy who is stuck abiding by them like everybody else. I learned a long time ago that nobody owes me a living. For that, I must toil. BTW, I’m 7/8ths white and look to be 100%. Understanding this might help you to limit your racial hatred against me.”

    Jonness, what make you think I would want to work at Microsoft? I hate their software and don’t want to work with those people with the room-temperature IQ’s (even on the Kelvin scale, oops that was a joke that only a real engineer would get, sorry, bud. ;-).

    Your absolutely right that nobody owes you a living – that’s one thing we agree on, and I was taught it at an early age.

    I don’t care what color you are. Just look at your next paragraph, and let me explain your problem:

    “I’m against capping the population and not allowing ANYBODY new into the country. IMO, that would ultimately destroy the US and cause it to lose its ranking in the world. Education and innovation are key to a strong America. Religious dogma, lack of quality education, intellectual stagnation, and sense of entiltement are key to a weak America.”

    What are you trying to say? It sounds to me you think native Americans (those of us born here) are stupid. Is that your point? Makes you wonder how American engineers built equipment to send 12 men to the surface of the moon only 8 years or so after not even being able to launch a rocket 1 mile up. This is without anything resembling modern electronics for guidance, control, etc. Yes, we had a coupla good Germans, but it mostly took thousands upon thousands of home-grown American engineers. Keep in mind that this was before the major immigration bill of 1965. Between the mid-20’s and the mid 60’s, immigration to the US was miniscule.

    I think we were a hell of a country back in those days. How do expect us to get back that way, when all the kids are indoctrinated now in government schools with the politically correct crap (like the stuff you often spew) and no regard for the basics of reading, writing, and math? Our only hope is the home-schoolers – some of them do it for religious reasons, but nonetheless, they are, on the whole, the brightest kids around.

    BTW, the sense of entitlement part will go away pretty quickly with the coming bad economic times.

  85. 85
    ElPolloLoco says:

    By softwarengineer @ 42:

    Besides, with 4 million jobs lost this last year; whose job are the 2-3 Million/yr foreign uncontrolled growth going to take next? Yours?

    No.

    So don’t you ‘name callers” be using the Race Card blatantly, it has absolutely nothing to do with Seattle’s overpopulation problem, but if you do use it, it tells me your blog has no substance and you’ve also broke the Freedom of Speech code and ethics laws in America. Ask an attorney if you don’t believe
    me.

    Wow, you’re completely decompensated

  86. 86
    Dave Lincoln says:

    Oh, last one, I promise (for tonight): I do have a license, a P.E, that is, but I don’t use it now. I know that is some peoples’ defintiion, but in most fields (other than Civil Engr), this license is somewhat a waste of time, as you may never use it. An enginering degree at the Bachelor’s level is what it takes to be an engineer.

    I really didn’t like Jimmy Carter being called an engineer back in the those dark days – see, he was in the nuclear navy, and I think that’s why he was referred to as an engineer back then. It was the Navy’s term. He did not have an engineering degree from what I recall (but don’t quote me on that – you can quote me on “Jimmy Carter was a disasterous president, but Obama will be worse” if you want, that’d be fine).

    Good night, all, and sorry for the late comebacks ;-)

  87. 87
    what goes up must come down says:

    Dave I am also a degreed engineer — and I also went through the Navy nuclear engineering program after college, so please don’t talk about something that you have NO clue about. For your information in that program there were engineers from MIT, Columbia, Stanford, Cal Tech, etc…. and yes there were a few math majors — unfortunately for them it was over their heads and they washed out – still they were highly intelligent it was just that their backgrounds did not help them enough when it came to dealing with the pace of the courses. And yes I have my PE big deal.

    P.S. Guess who is rated the worse President ever??? Come on show us your intelligence.

  88. 88
    Mikal says:

    RE: Dave Lincoln @ 84 – We should also go back to the Jim Crow laws as well. Much of that growth was due to the GI Bill and all the college educated former troops. What is that? A Government giveaway? The government invested wisely in our future and the fruits of that was the great economy of the fifties and sixties. I can’t recall, but did Eisenhower use trickle down economics?

  89. 89
    Jonness says:

    Dave, I’m going to try and be nice about this and point out what I believe are incorrect assumptions on your part about this Native American issue.

    The word native (from Latin natus meaning born) has often been applied to ethnic groups to mean “a group who lived in some place before the arrival of other groups”; in this context, specifically, “before the arrival of the Europeans”.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Native_American_name_controversy

    Kennewick Man has been dated at 9300 years old. The most acceptable hypothesis for his existance in America is his ancestors got here via the Bering land bridge. The minimum scientifically proven date for this event is 12000 years ago. However, many competing theories exist that set the date of the crossing beyond 30,000 years ago (perhaps by multiple migrations).

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kennewick_Man

    “It sounds to me you think native Americans (those of us born here) are stupid. Is that your point?”

    I’m not saying that at all. In fact, many clever people have been born in this country. Then again, many clever people have also immigrated to this country. It’s this diversity that has made our country great. I fail to recognize how adopting radical protectionist policies can aid this country now. Especially considering science teaches us the opposite principles in that genetic diversity is key to the survival and domination of a species. I believe our country needs to develop well-designed immigration policies that benefit it as a whole as opposed to a subset of “entitled” people in it.

    “Makes you wonder how American engineers built equipment to send 12 men to the surface of the moon only 8 years or so after not even being able to launch a rocket 1 mile up..”

    I’m related to several U.S. born mathematicians and/or scientists who made major contributions to the U.S. space program. However, it is accepted that the German-born Wernher von Braun was crucial to its success. Please understand that his group had successfully launched a rocket beyond 1 mile by 1934. Accuracy of the rocket was, of course, another issue.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wernher_von_Braun

    “I think we were a hell of a country back in those days. How do expect us to get back that way, when all the kids are indoctrinated now in government schools with the politically correct crap (like the stuff you often spew) and no regard for the basics of reading, writing, and math?”

    As I stated in a previous post, the most passionate and intelligent person I met while attending UW is from India. I couldn’t help but notice when walking into the library, in general the foreign students were studying, and the American-born students were either absent or chatting. How will radical protectionism favorably alter this phenomenon? Hopefully, we can return to “those days” the same way we got there in the first place. By embracing the immigration of intelligent people into this country as well as the concept of success through tremedously hard work of our current residents. Without continued innovation, we are dead in the water. This country has got to get past being driven by sense of entitlement and single-focused religioius conviction and get on with creativity and innovation.

    I’m going on day 3 of a horrendous flu. I’m not likely to return post more on this thread.

  90. 90
    Dave says:

    RE: economist @ 31
    Got i t- I was sloppily grawing an aanology where one group was calling out another group for genocide. Not necessarily immigration based. Actually both of my anaolgies (the nazis one) suffered from the same fault.

  91. 91
    voight-kampff says:

    At first I thought these posts were getting very tedious.
    but Ive learned something.
    I used to think some of the posters here where pretty smart and I actually gave weight to their bubble/economic/realestate arguments…. but now… not so much.

  92. 92
    Dave Lincoln says:

    WCUMCD: Hey, I am very familiar with the program from other engineers that were with me at engineering school. Many of them got a degree while sponsored by the Navy – I think for a promise of 4 or 5 (not sure) more years of enlistment. However, not all Navy Nuke people are degreed engineers – this does not mean they can’t do the job on the subs, if you can read this far.

    My point was that Jimmy, the worst president of all time, so far (nah, there are probably 10 more under him, if you really get technical). was called an engineer, but he was not a degreed engineer:

    “Jimmy Carter: The 39th President of the U.S. got his engineering background in the U.S. Naval Academy and did studies in reactor technology and nuclear physics later on.” from this site: http://www.firststoponlinedegree.com/articles/famous-people-with-engineering-degrees.php

    Man, that does not say much about the Navy, I gotta tell ya. How did this idiot stay in the Navy without somebody saying something, is what I wanna know.

  93. 93
    Dave Lincoln says:

    OK, Mikai, I hope you feel better by now (24 hours or so). I had referred to American rockets going more than a mile – and I don’t mean Goddard’s (one of the pioneers) rockets. I was thinking more of something that was of the scale that could lift a human.

    Indeed Von Braun’s designs from the V2, etc, were used a lot in the Atlas project I think, the Redstone (both of these in the Mercury program) and through the Saturns. However, it takes more than a few German scientists to make it happen. They did not design the millions of parts, new technology, test set-ups, the astro-navigation and all that. It took many thousands of good American mechanical, electrical, and chemical engineers to make it happen…. and I say from late ’50’s when the rockets were mostly crashing on the pads to the late 60’s when Armstrong set foot on another world!

    I am pretty impressed by that work by my fellow Native Americans!

    What this had to do with real estate is beyond my pay grade ;-)

  94. 94
    Dave Lincoln says:

    “I believe our country needs to develop well-designed immigration policies that benefit it as a whole …”

    Agreed!

  95. 95
    David Losh says:

    RE: Dave Lincoln @ 93

    Welcome to America!

    A man on the Moon! Wow! One small step for mankind.

    You’re talking about welfare, rather than warfare. The United States continued the German rocket program for two reasons: satelite technology, and nuclear war head delivery. The government pumped in $100 million dollars and off it went. It employed thousands of people, created new jobs, brought us the computer age, and the internet. Your tax dollars at work.

    It was another government welfare program for the protectionist, nationalistic crowd to be proud of for sure.

    Let’s also remember that we are talking about white people’s welfare. As I look over the famous photos from those golden years I see a lot of white faces. Is that what you mean by the golden years of America?

    It was welfare and continues to be a government funded program for the creation of jobs. The main purpose was and is global military dominence.

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