Speaking of the bottom, let’s have another checkup on how things are progressing with respect to our bottom-calling series from February, in which we explored six different methods of forecasting the bottom for Seattle-area home prices.
Not a lot of news since our last checkup in December, when we had passed three of our six potential bottoms with no bottom in sight.
As of the latest Case-Shiller data (December), Seattle-area home prices have hit another new low at 23.3% off the peak. We are now well past the bottom prediction for the Dollars per Square Foot Linear Forecast, especially since my original calculations were off by a few months and the bottom call of 30.7% off in December 2009 should have been set in October 2009.
Here’s an update to our dollars per square foot bottom call chart:
The tax credit definitely seems to have leveled things off for the better part of 2009, but ever since November, things are headed south almost as strongly as they were in 2008.
For comparison, here are similar charts for King, Snohomish, Pierce, and Seattle proper from Redfin:
Spring: $199/sqft. Summer: $205/sqft. Latest: $190/sqft.
Spring: $172/sqft. Summer: $176/sqft. Latest: $163/sqft.
Spring: $132/sqft. Summer: $138/sqft. Latest: $126/sqft.
April low: $270/sqft. August mini-peak: $280/sqft. Latest: $261/sqft.
I also love how sharply the listing prices are shooting up in the last couple months, despite the continued decline in sold prices, especially in Seattle proper. Hello, wishful thinking!