It’s time once again for the monthly reporting roundup, where you can read my wry commentary about the news instead of subjecting yourself to boring rehashes of the NWMLS press release (or in addition to, if that’s what floats your boat).
First up, let’s have a look at the source material from the NWMLS itself. Here’s their press release: Housing Activity Remained Sluggish During October; Market Change Not Likely to be "Light Switch" Moment
“The change in the market will not be a ‘light switch’ moment,” remarked NWMLS director Frank Wilson, branch managing broker at John L. Scott Real Estate in Poulsbo. He expects 2011 will be a little better than 2010, with 2012 likely to be a little better than 2011.
Notice how he conveniently avoids defining “better.” Personally, I think the housing market has been continually getting better since about July 2007. If it keeps getting a little better in 2011 and 2012 by that measure, that would be just fine with me.
“Buyers and sellers need to live in the now and not try to second-guess the market or when it will actually bottom out,” Wilson suggested, adding the messages to sellers and buyers are unchanged.
And that is exactly the problem with these press releases from the NWMLS: the message never changes. It’s always a great time to buy a house, no matter what.
I will note that the NWMLS wisely avoided touting the slight bump in closed sales in their report from September to October (since it’s probably just an artifact of their lousy method of statistical reporting).
Here are a few examples of the kinds of listings that cause junk to appear in the NWMLS sale counts. Each of these homes is still “pending” as of this post, despite having actually sold months ago (look at the “Property History” section of the page). Whenever the agents eventually get around to marking these homes as sold in the NWMLS system, they will be counted as closed sales for whatever month it happens to be, rather than the month in which they actually closed.
- Pending in April, sold in September
- Pending in June, sold in August
- Pending in June, sold in July
- Pending in May, sold in June
- Pending in April, sold in May
At any given time there are hundreds of listings like this, whose actual closed sale dates end up included in the wrong month in the NWMLS reports whenever they finally are reported as closed by the listing agent.
But enough about how crappy the NWMLS stats are. Let’s get on with the reporting roundup!
Eric Pryne, Seattle Times: King County home sales higher than last month
…in something of a surprise, the listing service also reported last month’s single-family-home sales were up 13 percent from September’s total, the first such increase since June.
Some observers said that may be an indication the market is emerging from the funk it fell into after the federal tax credits expired for real this spring.
…
Others, however, questioned whether the listing service’s reported jump is real.Its numbers reflect sales that agents reported last month — not sales that actually closed then, said Tim Ellis, who writes the bearish Seattlebubble.com real-estate blog.
The October total almost certainly includes some sales from previous months, he said. Other sources show no sales surge last month.
“I don’t think you should read anything into this apparent month-over-month bump,” Ellis said in an e-mail.
Listing-service officials were not available for comment.
Oh, they’re “not available for comment” about how shoddy their reports are. What a shock. Thank you Eric, for bringing their lousy reporting methodology to light on a larger platform.
Aubrey Cohen, Seattle P-I: Home prices up in city, down countywide
Seattle home prices rose in October, but prices were down in countywide and the number of sales slumped in both areas, the Northwest Multiple Listing Service reported Thursday.
…
The listing service noted in a news release that the median price, counting houses and condos together, actually was up in King county from a year earlier. But that’s true only because this October’s mix included a higher percentage of houses, which tend to sell for more.
You’ll notice that Aubrey Cohen is back on the real estate beat for the P-I. Good to have him back, calling out the NWMLS nonsense like this.
Mike Benbow, Everett Herald: Snohomish County home prices still falling
The listing service also reported that sales were slow in the county in October, with pending sales down 19 percent and completed sales off nearly 30 percent from a year ago.
Mike Applebee of Chicago Title said the lower sales aren’t a surprise — the federal tax breaks that had earlier been offered to buyers siphoned off many potential customers.
But he said people are missing what he views as an exceptional deal — prices comparable to what they were in 2004 and interest rates as good as they’ve been in 50 years.
“We’ve had fantastic interest rates,” he said.
Blah blah blah, it’s a great time to buy, why can’t buyers understand what a great opportunity they’re missing, etc.
Kathleen Cooper, Tacoma News Tribune: Inventories, home prices fall from ’09 in Pierce County
Pierce County’s median home sales price in October slipped a little from the same time last year, but the number of homes on the market decreased from the month before.
According to monthly data released Thursday from the Northwest Multiple Listing Service, Pierce County has almost nine months of inventory.
Inventory is one way to measure the health of a market, with anything higher than six months considered unhealthy. It estimates how long it would take to sell everything on the market if nothing new were added.
Most of the article is cut and paste from the NWMLS press release. Yawn.
Rolf Boone, The Olympian: Homebuyers remain wary
Mortgage interest rates still are at historic lows and home prices remain soft, but that hasn’t been enough of an incentive to stimulate home sales in Thurston County, according to Northwest Multiple Listing Service data released Thursday.
Home sales in October fell 21 percent to 229 units from 290 units in October 2009, the combined single-family residence and condominium data show. More homes sold in September than October – 247 compared with 229 – and the October sales were the fewest since February, the data show.
Although mortgage interest rates and home prices are low, buyers still are waiting on the sidelines, Windermere Olympia broker and owner Steve Garrett said Thursday.
…
He also said some prospective buyers, even those with good jobs and steady careers, are waiting for the housing market to reach bottom before they invest in a house.“But where is the bottom?” Garrett said. “That’s the hard question.”
So quit worrying about whether you’ll lose value the moment you close on your house and buy already, you fools! Buy, buy, buy!
(Eric Pryne, Seattle Times, 11.04.2010)
(Aubrey Cohen, Seattle P-I, 11.04.2010)
(Mike Benbow, Everett Herald, 11.05.2010)
(Kathleen Cooper, Tacoma News Tribune, 11.05.2010)
(Rolf Boone, The Olympian, 11.05.2010)