Let’s check out the three price tiers for the Seattle area, as measured by Case-Shiller. Remember, Case-Shiller’s “Seattle” data is based on single-family home repeat sales in King, Pierce, and Snohomish counties.
Note that the tiers are determined by sale volume. In other words, 1/3 of all sales fall into each tier. For more details on the tier methodologies, hit the full methodology pdf. Here are the current tier breakpoints:
- Low Tier: < $251,305 (down 4.5%)
- Mid Tier: $251,305 – $394,473
- Hi Tier: > $394,473 (down 2.5%)
First up is the straight graph of the index from January 2000 through December 2010.
Here’s a zoom-in, showing just the last year:
All three tiers are now posting new post-peak lows. The low tier has “rewound” to June 2004, the middle tier is back to November 2004, and the high tier is at January 2005 pricing.
In somewhat of a reversal from recent months, the high tier lost the most ground in December. The low tier dropped 1.8%, the middle tier fell 1.5%, and the high tier lost 2.5%.
Here’s a chart of the year-over-year change in the index from January 2003 through December 2010.
All three tiers continued to increase their rate of decline in December. The spread between the three is increasing in recent months, which is somewhat interesting. The low tier passed into double-digit losses in December.
Here’s where the tiers sit YOY as of December – Low: -10.7%, Med: -8.2%, Hi: -4.2%.
Lastly, here’s a decline-from-peak graph like the one posted yesterday, but looking only at the Seattle tiers.
New lows for everybody. Current standing is 33.3% off peak for the low tier (a full third!), 28.9% off peak for the middle tier, and 26.3% off peak for the high tier.
(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 02.22.2011)