Let’s check out the three price tiers for the Seattle area, as measured by Case-Shiller. Remember, Case-Shiller’s “Seattle” data is based on single-family home repeat sales in King, Pierce, and Snohomish counties.
Note that the tiers are determined by sale volume. In other words, 1/3 of all sales fall into each tier. For more details on the tier methodologies, hit the full methodology pdf. Here are the current tier breakpoints:
- Low Tier: < $229,971 (down 0.9%)
- Mid Tier: $229,971 – $369,399
- Hi Tier: > $369,399 (down 1.2%)
First up is the straight graph of the index from January 2000 through December 2011.
Here’s a zoom-in, showing just the last year:
The high tier inched out a slight month to month gain between December and January—an impressive feat given that this data is still from the middle of winter. The low tier fell 3.1% MOM, the middle tier dropped 0.3%, and the high tier gained less than 0.1%.
Here’s a chart of the year-over-year change in the index from January 2003 through January 2012.
For the first time since January 2008, one of the tiers marked a year-over-year increase. Obviously the middle and low tiers are quite a ways behind, but their second derivatives are both positive as well, and at this point it looks like they could both be in the black before the end of the year. Here’s where the tiers sit YOY as of January – Low: -12.1%, Med: -7.9%, Hi: +0.1%.
Lastly, here’s a decline-from-peak graph like the one posted yesterday, but looking only at the Seattle tiers.
Current standing is 43.4% off peak for the low tier, 35.7% off peak for the middle tier, and 27.9% off peak for the high tier. The middle and low tiers each set new post-peak low points, while the high tier remains a couple points above its February 2011 low.
(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 03.27.2012)