Somehow last month I missed the five-year anniversary of my lengthy email conversation with local mortgage broker Steve Tytler.
Some choice excerpts:
I have been actively involved in the Seattle real estate market for more than 20 years and I have studied the market stats all the way back to the 1960’s. I can tell you that we have never had a major housing price “bust” here like those in other cities such as San Diego.
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You will never see a major housing price crash here.
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I expect the housing market to be flat for the next few years. I do NOT expect to see 20%+ price drops as we have seen in other previously housing markets around the country.
When I challenged his logic and conclusions with facts and statistics, he held firm, declaring that “You can’t go strictly by the numbers.”
I’m sticking with my prediction of a flat market (i.e. little or no appreciation) for the next 4-5 years, then our housing market will take off again. I’ve seen it happen over and over again.
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You are taking a “number crunching” approach, whereas my approach is more art than science — based on my experience, statistical analysis and just plain gut instincts.
I only bring it up today because, well… he asked me to:
You can save this email and throw it back in my face 5 years from now if I am wrong, but I’ll bet you a beer that I’m right.
Too bad I hate beer.