The share of single-family home sales in King County that were bank-owned edged up slightly in September, increasing to 7.5% of sales.
It’s a good bet that due to seasonality this number will continue to rise through the end of the year and into the first couple months of 2013. I doubt we’ll get back up to 20% or more any time soon, but I could be wrong.
Meanwhile, the share of each month’s sales that were short sales continues to hold fairly steady at around 13% of the market.
When you add in short sales the total share of monthly sales that are distressed is at 20%. As long as one in five sales is either a short sale or a foreclosure it’s hard to say we’re in a “normal” housing market. I suspect we’ll see things rolling along at these levels for quite some time. There are a lot of underwater homes to work through.
The number of short sales I find more interesting. It has been fairly steady for months at around 200 or so, but bumped up in July and August. I was hoping that would be a trend, but it fell back in September.
Tim (or anyone else) – can you explain the seasonality of bank owned sales? Why do they peak in January-February? Is it that the numbers are fairly constant but the total sales are hitting their seasonal low?
By WestSideBilly @ 2:
Yes, which is why the median fluctuates. But they have been dropping in number too as of late.
RE: WestSideBilly @ 2 – Yup, pretty much. Banks don’t tend to care what time of year it is, they just pump out a steady flow of foreclosures year-round. Meanwhile the raw number of non-distressed sales drops off significantly in the fall and winter, so the constant number of bank-owned sales makes up a larger percentage of the total sales.
RE: WestSideBilly @ 2 –
More investors will buy in January, February for a turn at the Spring selling season. It is also the beginning of the year which let’s people play with the profits for a longer period of time before they pay taxes.
Banks, lenders, and investors have fiscal calenders where they will sell for a better tax consequence, of profit, or losses.
RE: WestSideBilly @ 2 – I just check and 2/11 was rather low and 3/11 rather high, but that doesn’t show in the percentages that well.
Wow my zip must be hobbled I’m showing:
284 SFH active
of those
18 REO 6.3%
107 SS 37.7%
Distressed is 44%
We’re in line with the REO total market percentage but way up on the SS percentage of market.
RE: David S @ 7 – Tim’s data is of closed listings. You’re using active. Short sales often don’t close–only about half do last time I looked.
RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 8 – You’re correct. At closer to 19% SS then as the countywide chart shows.
RE: David Losh @ 5 –
Who Would Guess
The American Stock market shooting up 30%+ YOY to date. Makes real estate investment in bank owned used stock look moot and low return [if any] in comparison.
We’re clearly in a new paradigm for investing. Ben’s QEs will be pumped into interest rate lowering through 2015 to keep this investment trend going?