Case-Shiller: March Home Price Gains Strong but Slowing

Let’s have a look at the latest data from the Case-Shiller Home Price Index. According to February data, Seattle-area home prices were:

Up 1.9% February to March
Up 11.6% YOY.
Down 15.7% from the July 2007 peak

Last year prices rose 3.0% from February to March and year-over-year prices were up 10.6%.

Since this year’s seasonal increase was smaller than it was last year, the year-over-year increase shrank a bit between February and March, hitting its lowest point since April 2013.

Here’s an interactive graph of the year-over-year change for all twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities, courtesy of Tableau Software (check and un-check the boxes on the right):

Seattle’s position for month-over-month changes inched up from #3 in February to #2 in March. Only San Francisco saw home prices rise more between February and March than they did in Seattle.

Case-Shiller HPI: Month-to-Month

Hit the jump for the rest of our monthly Case-Shiller charts, including the interactive chart of raw index data for all 20 cities.

In March, eight of the twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities gained more year-over-year than Seattle (one less than February):

  • Las Vegas at +21.2%
  • San Francisco at +20.9%
  • San Diego at +18.9%
  • Los Angeles at +16.9%
  • Miami at +16.2%
  • Atlanta at +15.7%
  • Detroit at +15.7%
  • Portland at +11.8%

Eleven cities gained less than Seattle as of March: Minneapolis, Chicago, Phoenix, Tampa, Dallas, Denver, Washington DC, Boston, New York, Charlotte, and Cleveland.

Here’s the interactive chart of the raw HPI for all twenty cities through March.

Here’s an update to the peak-decline graph, inspired by a graph created by reader CrystalBall. This chart takes the twelve cities whose peak index was greater than 175, and tracks how far they have fallen so far from their peak. The horizontal axis shows the total number of months since each individual city peaked.

Case-Shiller HPI: Decline From Peak

In the seventy-nine months since the price peak in Seattle prices have declined 15.7%.

Lastly, let’s see what month in the past Seattle’s current prices most compare to. As of March 2014, Seattle prices are right around where they were in October 2005.

Case-Shiller: Seattle Home Price Index

Check back tomorrow for a post on the Case-Shiller data for Seattle’s price tiers.

(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 05.27.2014)

About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.


  1. 1
    Erik says:

    Good info Tim. Seattle and San Fran are both tech places and they are the leaders in price increases. Maybe I shouldn’t have sold… I was wrong about prices being at the top. I think they will keep increasing as long as this tech boom continues.

  2. 2

    RE: Erik @ 1
    HP Lays Off Mass Workers

    Like 50K+….tech boom?

    The only tech boom I see is small hiring entities like Facebook, apocolypse “end of the world” video games are selling well to the depressed unemployed Millenials at Gamestop….laptops and O/Ss from MSFT are deteriorating like HP’s reliance on laptops leading to MASS layoffs. IPhones and their concurrent horrifying monthly user rates are booming, but how does that replace all the high paying jobs disappearring as fast as P/T low wage jobs are appearring.

    Facebook’s CEO [Zuckerberg sp?] wants illegal aliens and MASS insourcing of low wage foreign replacements for all you Seattle tech workers….sounds like Gates. Good luck.

    BTW, I pulled all this information from the stock financial news….dividends do go up with layoffs, reduces employee overhead costs. IMO, there isn’t hardly enough work to do with all of American workforce, now that automation and worker performance out-strips the need to hire. Yet Seattle’s stagnant and wage deteriorating economy is still being fed by more concurrent foreign overpopulation.

  3. 3
    Chris says:

    can u list the raw data point in your post. 162.10 or 162.0x? Just curious.

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