September Stats Preview: Setting Up a Dismal Fall and Winter

Now that September is in the books, let’s have a look at our monthly stats preview. First up, here’s the snapshot of all the data as far back as my historical information goes, with the latest, high, and low values highlighted for each series:

King & Snhomish County Stats Preview

Sales were basically flat month-over-month, but still up double-digits from a year ago, while inventory in both counties saw the biggest year-over-year decline in more than two years. Foreclosure notices in both counties bumped up a little month-over-month and year-over-year.

Next, let’s look at total home sales as measured by the number of “Warranty Deeds” filed with King County:

King County Warranty Deeds

Sales in King County slipped 3 percent between August and September (in 2014 they fell 7 percent over the same period), and were up 15 percent year-over-year.

Here’s a look at Snohomish County Deeds, but keep in mind that Snohomish County files Warranty Deeds (regular sales) and Trustee Deeds (bank foreclosure repossessions) together under the category of “Deeds (except QCDS),” so this chart is not as good a measure of plain vanilla sales as the Warranty Deed only data we have in King County.

Snohomish County Deeds

Deeds in Snohomish rose 1 percent month-over-month (vs. a 5 percent drop in the same period last year) and were up 20 percent from September 2014.

Next, here’s Notices of Trustee Sale, which are an indication of the number of homes currently in the foreclosure process:

King County Notices of Trustee Sale

Snohomish County Notices of Trustee Sale

Foreclosure notices in King County were up 2 percent from a year ago, and Snohomish County was up 10 percent from last year.

Here’s another measure of foreclosures for King County, looking at Trustee Deeds, which is the type of document filed with the county when the bank actually repossesses a house through the trustee auction process. Note that there are other ways for the bank to repossess a house that result in different documents being filed, such as when a borrower “turns in the keys” and files a “Deed in Lieu of Foreclosure.”

King County Trustee Deeds

Trustee Deeds were down 28 percent from a year ago, and up 1 percent from a month ago.

Lastly, here’s an update of the inventory charts, updated with previous months’ inventory data from the NWMLS.

King County SFH Active Listings

Snohomish County SFH Active Listings

Inventory fell in both counties month-over-month, which is typical for this time of year. However, the year-over-year decline in each county was the largest since early 2013. King was down 31 percent from a year ago while Snohomish was down 19 percent.

Note that most of the charts above are based on broad county-wide data that is available through a simple search of King County and Snohomish County public records. If you have additional stats you’d like to see in the preview, drop a line in the comments and I’ll see what I can do.

Stay tuned later this month a for more detailed look at each of these metrics as the “official” data is released from various sources.

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About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. Tim also hosts the weekly improv comedy sci-fi podcast Dispatches from the Multiverse.

6 comments:

  1. 1
    Saffy The Pook says:

    Hey Tim, please add some x-axis labels to your first graph. Two inferred labels (2000 and 2015) are not enough.

  2. 2

    RE: Saffy The Pook @ 1 – There are no Y labels either-what do you have against the Y’s?

    But yes, I want to have X labels because I want to know if it was 2005 or 2007 when they first started selling real property in Snohomish County!

  3. 3

    Actually

    YOY, this winter’s looking like last year.

  4. 4

    By softwarengineer @ 3:

    Actually

    YOY, this winter’s looking like last year.

    Huh? Ignoring the fact that Winter is not yet here, with the exception of notice of trustee’s sale data, what of anything above looks anything like last year?

  5. 5
    The Tim says:

    RE: Saffy The Pook @ 1 – I won’t be adding axis labels to the sparklines in this post, but I am open to adding a chart or two that have the full-sized plot with all the labels.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sparkline

  6. 6

    Comparing Q4 to Q1

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