Case-Shiller: Seattle Home Price Gains Power Into Winter

Let’s have a look at the latest data from the Case-Shiller Home Price Index. According to August data that was released today, Seattle-area home prices were:

Up 0.5 percent October to November
Up 9.7 percent YOY.
Down 3.2 percent from the July 2007 peak

Over the same period in 2014 prices were down 0.3 percent month-over-month and year-over-year prices were up 5.9 percent.

The Seattle area’s month-over-month home price change was positive in November, which isn’t unheard of for this time of year, but is fairly strong. The last time October to November saw a bigger gain than this was 2005. With these continued gains, the year-over-year price change has now risen to a ninteen-month high.

Here’s a Tableau Public interactive graph of the year-over-year change for all twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities. Check and un-check the boxes on the right to modify which cities are showing:

Seattle’s rank for month-over-month changes rose from #6 in October to #3 in November.

Case-Shiller HPI: Month-to-Month

Hit the jump for the rest of our monthly Case-Shiller charts, including the interactive chart of raw index data for all 20 cities.

In November, just three of the twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities gained more year-over-year than Seattle (one fewer than in October):

  • Portland at +11.1%
  • San Francisco at +11.0%
  • Denver at +10.9%

San Francisco, Portland, and Dallas all hit new all-time highs in November.

Sixteen cities gained less than Seattle as of November: Dallas, Miami, Detroit, Los Angeles, San Diego, Tampa, Phoenix, Atlanta, Charlotte, Las Vegas, Minneapolis, Boston, New York, Cleveland, Washington, and Chicago.

Here’s the interactive chart of the raw HPI for all twenty cities through November.

Here’s an update to the peak-decline graph, inspired by a graph created by reader CrystalBall. This chart takes the twelve cities whose peak index was greater than 175, and tracks how far they have fallen so far from their peak. The horizontal axis shows the total number of months since each individual city peaked.

Case-Shiller HPI: Decline From Peak

In the one hundred months since the price peak in Seattle prices are down 3.2 percent.

Lastly, let’s see what month in the past Seattle’s current prices most compare to. As of November 2015, Seattle prices are approximately where they were in March 2007.

Case-Shiller: Seattle Home Price Index

Check back tomorrow for our monthly look at Case-Shiller data for Seattle’s price tiers.

(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 2016-01-26)

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About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. Tim also hosts the weekly improv comedy sci-fi podcast Dispatches from the Multiverse.

11 comments:

  1. 1
    GoHawks says:

    The top performing markets all have one thing in common…….tech, tech, tech.

  2. 2
    sleepless says:

    Are we in “official” recces ion? I have a question for the people on this blog. I dare you to answer it… IF the FED “officially” stopped the QE and the 10 T-Note keeps going down, who is buying all that debt? The CONgress has passed a budget deficit for the next year of $1.1 Tril, meaning someone has to buy all those treasuries. At the same time China, Russia and Saudis unload their Forex reserves at the highest rate in the history (China to support weak yuan, Russia and Saudi to support lower oil prices). All of the three burn thru their “cash” super fast, meaning they sell already tens of Bils $$$ worth of T-Notes per month. So, the question is, who is the “mysterious” buyer of all that debt? Why am i asking this? Because historically 30y fixed mortgages are tied to the 10 years T-Notes, meaning the price is correlated directly. For the mortgage interest rates to rise, the 10 T-Note has to rise, but it doesn’t. With the FED raising rates the only explanation for further falling rates of the 10y USTs is that there is still a demand for them. $1.1T + what Russia, China and Saudi sell every month, it would easily go to $2T a year?

  3. 3
    Mike says:

    So, who here is cashing out their equity this time around?

  4. 4
    Macro Investor says:

    Sleepless, plenty of people THE WORLD OVER want treasuries. Europe, Japan and South American countries are all basket cases. Now we find out China is too. While the US is a mess, it’s still the safe haven for anybody who can pry their money out of these other places.

    Lots of people have been saying the fed COULD NEVER raise rates. However, the fed said they would and they did. How is that possible, with gov deficits so high? My first paragraph explains how. With so much money seeking safekeeping in US assets, there is no need to fear higher rates. In fact, higher rates makes US bonds even more attractive to investors.

    I believe the fed will keep ticking rates up over the next couple of years. At some point the stock market will suffer, as it always has every decade or so. At some point real estate will too. You all know deep down it must, and wishful thinking should never be a replacement for reason.

  5. 5
    sleepless says:

    By Macro Investor @ 4:

    Sleepless, plenty of people THE WORLD OVER want treasuries. Europe, Japan and South American countries are all basket cases. Now we find out China is too.

    Not true. It is the opposite. China is dumping the Treasuries at the record pace to support falling yuan. Since the FED started tightening, the emerging markets (aka South America) see significant outflow of the dollars. Moreover, South America is broke, look at Brazil, Venezuela, Argentina. Europe and Japan are broke to. Japan is bout to launch another round of QE, same is the Europe. No one is buying US Treasuries at this point, nevertheless, the rates keep falling? Any guess who has Trillions in their disposal to buy such amounts of the T-Notes?

    Lots of people have been saying the fed COULD NEVER raise rates. However, the fed said they would and they did.

    It was one and done deal. See the DOW falling to $15K and the FED will announce it will not raise rates this year. If the DOW falls to $14K, the FED will reverse 180 degrees and launches QE4 with negative interest rates.

    I believe the fed will keep ticking rates up over the next couple of years..

    No, it won’t. The US government is broke and cannot afford higher rates, neither does the economy. If the FED wants Trump to be the next president, then yes, they can inflict the recession before the next election. If the FED wants Hitlary, which it does, then say goodbye to any further rate hikes and say hello to MOAR QE

  6. 6
    Macro Investor says:

    I should have known better than to try explaining anything. Conspiracies always trump reason. My dumb mistake.

    Thanks, Won’t happen again.

  7. 7
    Erik says:

    RE: Mike @ 3
    Cashing out is not worth the 10% fee to sell. If we have a recession, I don’t see real estate prices going down much if at all. With such a low supply of inventory and a high demand for houses, real estate prices will stay strong.

    If people lose their jobs, inventory may head to more typical levels.

  8. 8
    oddman says:

    By Macro Investor @ 6:

    I should have known better than to try explaining anything. Conspiracies always trump reason. My dumb mistake.

    Thanks, Won’t happen again.

    There are many of us who truly appreciate the efforts of people like yourself. Sure you might never convince the conspiracy kids that they are wrong. But at least you might help prevent others from falling for their unsupportable nonsense.

    Keep up the good fight, willful ignorance should not be allowed to rule the internet completely unchallenged

  9. 9
    Siddharta says:

    By Macro Investor @ 4:

    ……

    I believe the fed will keep ticking rates up over the next couple of years.

    Wrong on this.

    Agreed the people world over consider US a safe haven.

  10. 10
    Pablo96 says:

    RE: Erik @ 7

    Right on Erik: unless unemployment goes higher and the major employers start shedding jobs, every deal is gonna have an escalation clause in it.

  11. 11
    Eastsider says:

    “China is dumping the Treasuries at the record pace ” – So is China losing billions, perhaps even trillion in currency reserves. They have no choice but to dump the Treasuries to prop up the Chinese yuan. Where did the money go? Overseas including the U.S..

    Global finance is interconnected and NIRP in EU and Japan is driving down interest rate here.

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