NWMLS: Listings Up, Prices Down August To September

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September market stats were published by the NWMLS today. The NWMLS press release has not been published yet, so we’ll take a look at that tomorrow.

CAUTION

NWMLS monthly reports include an undisclosed and varying number of
sales from previous months in their pending and closed sales statistics.

Here’s your King County SFH summary, with the arrows to show whether the year-over-year direction of each indicator is favorable or unfavorable news for buyers and sellers (green = favorable, red = unfavorable):

September 2016 Number MOM YOY Buyers Sellers
Active Listings 3,699 +8.2% +8.7%
Closed Sales 2,517 -9.8% +6.5%
SAAS (?) 1.22 +1.1% +12.1%
Pending Sales 2,921 -8.6% +6.1%
Months of Supply 1.47 +19.9% +2.1%
Median Price* $538,000 -2.2% +9.7%

After a month when everything was moving in sellers’ favor, September was much more of a mixed bag. Listings saw their largest year-over-year increase since May 2014, pushing months of supply up slightly as pending and closed sales both fell from August.

Here’s your closed sales yearly comparison chart:

King County SFH Closed Sales

Closed sales fell ten percent from August to September, but were still up 6 percent from a year earlier.

King County SFH Pending Sales

Pending sales fell nine percent in September, but were also up 6 percent year-over-year.

Here’s the graph of inventory with each year overlaid on the same chart.

King County SFH Inventory

Listings are up nine percent from a year earlier and 110 percent from the December 2015 low. Last year listings fell dramatically between September and December, it will be interesting to see what the next few months holds this year.

Here’s the supply/demand YOY graph. “Demand” in this chart is represented by closed sales, which have had a consistent definition throughout the decade (unlike pending sales from NWMLS).

King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY

Supply moved back to the buyer’s side of the chart, but demand is still on the seller’s side.

Here’s the median home price YOY change graph:

King County SFH YOY Price Change

Prices were up from a year earlier by about the same as they were last month—ten percent.

And lastly, here is the chart comparing King County SFH prices each month for every year back to 1994 (not adjusted for inflation).

King County SFH Prices

September 2016: $538,000
July 2007: $481,000 (previous cycle high)

The Seattle Times hasn’t posted their article yet. I’ll most likely post some kind of reporting roundup tomorrow with that and any other local stories about the September data.

Here’s this month’s article from the Seattle Times: Seattle home prices slow their climb, but shortage of inspectors raises anxiety

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About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. Tim also hosts the weekly improv comedy sci-fi podcast Dispatches from the Multiverse.

10 comments:

  1. 1
    ess says:

    http://www.seattletimes.com/business/real-estate/seattle-home-prices-still-raging-despite-extra-inventory-slow-fall-season/

    Here is today’s Seattle Times article about the local real estate market. Apparently, there is not much of a consensus as to what will happen in the future. Rents remain strong – even with the addition of new rental housing.

    And foreign buyers are still a wild card in the equation. The migration of residents into King County and Puget Sound in the past year is not addressed as part of the housing equation. I would assume that those increased numbers either offset or come close to filling the new available housing in the area.

    I think one can be somewhat certain that prices won’t experience a precipitous decline in the next month or so………

    As they say, we live in interesting times!

  2. 2
    js says:

    The King County inventory numbers don’t show the complete picture. .

    Sept SFH Inventory (YOY):
    KC: +8.9%
    Seattle: +21.66% (!)
    Eastside: -5.22%

    The Seattle numbers are even worse (> 25%) if you remove Cap Hill, Downtown and Magnolia (390, 701, 700).

  3. 3
    Justme says:

    RE: ess @ 1

    >>The migration of residents into King County and Puget Sound in the past year is not addressed as part of the housing equation.

    Total falsehood. I have debunked several of the supposed population and jobs increase data fluff pieces this year.

    And what, pray tell, is the “housing equation”? is it something like F=m*a or E=m*c^2? Or not? I think it is just an important-sounding phrase used by people who have nothing substantial to say.

  4. 4
    Sam Hunter says:

    To all those new people who don’t know who Kary Krismer is…

    “Before you listen to any advice Kary gives you keep in mind he is the resident dimensia patient of this forum. I am not joking. This so called real estate professional has been wrong everytime he opens his mouth. He bought at the top of the 08 fiasco. NO JOKE. In fact if you just did the opposite of what Kary did you would have a million dollar real estate portfolio. Also keep in mind Kary cannot please his wife, how can he even hope to help others? He makes fun of people who have died of cancer. There is truly a nice small place in hell for this sad old balding man.”

    http://imgur.com/a/ewDVt

  5. 5

    I’ll repeat what I said in the other thread. Thurston county has somewhere between 2 and 3 months of inventory (just over 2 really), and it’s much better for buyers down there. So we don’t need that much more inventory up here before things are not all that crazy (although as JS correctly notes, it’s not the same everywhere in King County, so some areas will remain crazy longer than others).

  6. 6

    RE: Sam Hunter @ 4 – To all of you who don’t know who Sam Hunter is, he’s a troll, and as far as trolls go he’s rather stupid and uneducated. He can’t even make any points, just nonsense conclusions and points. He also has this erroneous belief that he’s funny. I thought for a bit that he was giving up trying to be funny, but he’s apparently relapsed.

    Really sad that SB has been reduced to having posts by so many rather pathetic people. But on the bright side at least one of them has seemingly disappeared.

  7. 7
    Patience says:

    By Sam Hunter @ 4:

    To all those new people who don’t know who Kary Krismer is…

    “Before you listen to any advice Kary gives you keep in mind he is the resident dimensia patient of this forum. I am not joking. This so called real estate professional has been wrong everytime he opens his mouth. He bought at the top of the 08 fiasco. NO JOKE. In fact if you just did the opposite of what Kary did you would have a million dollar real estate portfolio. Also keep in mind Kary cannot please his wife, how can he even hope to help others? He makes fun of people who have died of cancer. There is truly a nice small place in hell for this sad old balding man.”

    http://imgur.com/a/ewDVt

    Sam,

    Do you find joy in your life by personally attacking others and putting them down? If so, I feel sorry for you and I wish you well in trying to find peace with whatever you are dealing with. There are professionals in the world that can help you out if and when you are ready.

  8. 8
    redmondjp says:

    Well maybe the lower prices have something to do with the refusal to properly address the homeless situation:

    http://denver.cbslocal.com/2016/10/05/homeless-couple-having-sex-in-public-last-straw-denver-residents-moving-out/

    Seattle and Denver are sister cities, kindred spirits, if you will. Both have legalized pot and a diverse vagabond culture, woo hoo!

  9. 9
    Deerhawke says:

    As a developer and builder, a lot of my roughest comments (and best jokes) are about real estate agents and lawyers. Since Kary is both, I should join those in wanting to dump on him, but he is something else– smart and genuine.

    I don’t always 100% agree with his posts but that is not the point in a complex world. I always read what he has to say and I often learn something from him. I appreciate his perspective.

    Sam Hunter, you might have wandered into the wrong forum. People who attack others, label them and lamely try to engage in character assassination might feel more at home on the Trump supporter and alt-right websites.

  10. 10
    Green-Horn says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 9

    Teasing & joking can be fun if we all can still respect each other.

    I hope participants keep sharing so we might keep learning.

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