October Stats Preview: The Year-End Listings Decline Begins

October is done, so let’s take a look at the local housing market stats for the month. Short story: the typical seasonal drop in listings and sales is well underway. Listings dropped quite a bit from the previous month, back into negative year-over-year territory.

Here’s the snapshot of all the data as far back as my historical information goes, with the latest, high, and low values highlighted for each series:

King & Snohomish County Stats Preview

Sales came in stronger than last year even though they fell from September to October. Listings dropped in both counties. Foreclosures are still at their historic lows.

Next, let’s look at total home sales as measured by the number of “Warranty Deeds” filed with King County:

King County Warranty Deeds

Sales in King County fell 6 percent between September and October (a year ago they fell 8 percent over the same period), and were up 5 percent year-over-year.

Here’s a look at Snohomish County Deeds, but keep in mind that Snohomish County files Warranty Deeds (regular sales) and Trustee Deeds (bank foreclosure repossessions) together under the category of “Deeds (except QCDS),” so this chart is not as good a measure of plain vanilla sales as the Warranty Deed only data we have in King County.

Snohomish County Deeds

Deeds in Snohomish fell 11 percent month-over-month (vs. a 14 percent decrease in the same period last year) and were up 11 percent from October 2015.

Next, here’s Notices of Trustee Sale, which are an indication of the number of homes currently in the foreclosure process:

King County Notices of Trustee Sale

Snohomish County Notices of Trustee Sale

Foreclosure notices in King County were down 35 percent from a year ago and Snohomish County foreclosure notices were down 27 percent from last year.

Here’s another measure of foreclosures for King County, looking at Trustee Deeds, which is the type of document filed with the county when the bank actually repossesses a house through the trustee auction process. Note that there are other ways for the bank to repossess a house that result in different documents being filed, such as when a borrower “turns in the keys” and files a “Deed in Lieu of Foreclosure.”

King County Trustee Deeds

Trustee Deeds were down 51 percent from a year ago, hitting their lowest point since June 2007.

Lastly, here’s an update of the inventory charts, updated with previous months’ inventory data from the NWMLS.

King County SFH Active Listings

Snohomish County SFH Active Listings

Inventory fell 17 percent between September and October in King County, and was down 2 percent from a year ago. This is a flip from last month when listings were up month-over-month and year-over-year.

In Snohomish County it was the same story between September and October: Listings down 15 percent month-over-month and down 18 percent year-over-year.

Note that most of the charts above are based on broad county-wide data that is available through a simple search of King County and Snohomish County public records. If you have additional stats you’d like to see in the preview, drop a line in the comments and I’ll see what I can do.

Stay tuned later this month a for more detailed look at each of these metrics as the “official” data is released from various sources.

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About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. Tim also hosts the weekly improv comedy sci-fi podcast Dispatches from the Multiverse.

84 comments:

  1. 1
    Sam Hunter says:

    Tim sent me a message that reads as follows:

    “Sam, I like everyone here, am tired of seeing Kary post here because he is so wrong, so very wrong. Also old and balding. But his many doctors called me up and told me that Kary has dementia, erectile dysfunction, and general old man breath.

    The inability to think coherently and please his wife is really starting to take a toll on his old withered, very decrepit body.

    Please let him post his ramblings on your blog, it is the therapy he needs. I know that it may ruin your blog to have such a troubled man post, but we will reimburse you $500 per comment that Kary makes.

    We told him to at least remove his avatar so no one has to see his ugly face but he refuses. Because of this we will award you $23,000/year.

    No one should have to see that in real life, or online.

    Best Wishes,

    Doctors Magendoff, Krystall, Smith”

    Sad.

    ~Sam Hunter

  2. 2

    What a Conundrum

    Yeah, I could sell my SE King County home perhaps now for a 71% profit [not inflation adjusted from 1999]….its got a new roof, gutters and completely remodeled inside with a bedroom converted to a bar….then I have to replace it with some unknown run down shack with “unknown problems”? LOL….for more money likely too.

    Low inventory= STAY PUT or pay.

  3. 3
    Blurtman says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 2 – Or cash out and move.

  4. 4
    GoHawks says:

    Seems like 2017 will feel much like 2014-2016. When/why will supply exceed demand?

  5. 5
    Erik says:

    I told people that now it was a good time to buy last year. Everyone told me I was an idiot and we are in a bubble. Well, looks like I was right again. Inventory is low and demand is high. This can only lead to one thing…. rising real estate prices.

  6. 6
    Doug says:

    RE: Erik @ 5 – Did you buy property last year?

  7. 7
    redmondjp says:

    By Blurtman @ 3:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 2 – Or cash out and move.

    Yup.

    A block over from me in Redmond, a 16K sq. foot lot with a nice, small house and a huge, separate shop building recently sold for $750K, in less than a week. Everything will get scraped, the lot subdivided, and in a couple of years, two $1.5M homes will sit on it.

    It’s a great time to sell.

  8. 8
    js says:

    Record low October housing inventory, record high rainfall. Bad combo for the homeless.

  9. 9
    Brian says:

    By redmondjp @ 7:

    Everything will get scraped, the lot subdivided, and in a couple of years, two $1.5M homes will sit on it.

    That’s so annoying. Everything being built on the Eastside seems to be $1M 3500+sq ft mansions that only the rich people or multi-generational families can afford.

  10. 10
    redmondjp says:

    By js @ 8:

    Record low October housing inventory, record high rainfall. Bad combo for the homeless.

    On the plus side, there is no better time to determine if the property you are interested in has drainage issues.

  11. 11
    sleepless says:

    By Sam Hunter @ 1:

    [Content removed by The Tim for blatant violation of the rules.]

    I thought we have free speech in the US :) :) :)

  12. 12
    sleepless says:

    By GoHawks @ 4:

    Seems like 2017 will feel much like 2014-2016. When/why will supply exceed demand?

    When politicians (and the FED) stop manipulating the markets…

  13. 13
    Doug says:

    RE: sleepless @ 11 – This is not ‘Nam — there are rules.

  14. 14
    sleepless says:

    By Erik @ 5:

    I told people that now it was a good time to buy last year. Everyone told me I was an idiot and we are in a bubble. Well, looks like I was right again. Inventory is low and demand is high. This can only lead to one thing…. rising real estate prices.

    Lets wait until the election is over… If the corrupt scumbag killary wins, you get 4 years of morebama, the sheet show may last a few more years. Although, If Trump wins, it would get interesting. I believe the establishment will make everything possible to make Trump one term president – meaning inflicting severe recession / depression. I don’t have a crystal ball, but the next week should pretty much tell what to expect.

  15. 15
    sleepless says:

    By Doug @ 12:

    RE: sleepless @ 11 – This is not ‘Nam — there are rules.

    I just wanted to read what the man had to say…

  16. 16
    GoHawks says:

    RE: sleepless @ 12 – when was the last time markets were truly free?

  17. 17
    Doug says:

    Whether or not the actual SFH inventory number here is accurate, the trend is aggressively down Y-o-Y. We might be down as much as 10% by the end of December.

  18. 18
    Justme says:

    By Sam Hunter @ 1:

    [Content removed by The Tim for blatant violation of the rules.]

    Applause !!

  19. 19

    Just squeaked under 3,000 King County active by Tim’s count. Somewhat understandable since a lot of inventory is going Pending and listing right before Thanksgiving isn’t typically thought of as optimal.

  20. 20
    Blurtman says:

    RE: redmondjp @ 7 – We are pretty lucky to live in the Northwest. I am holding and continuing to enjoy this area. But I do like the growing equity. I think a home in this area is a nice asset and would probably keep it if we moved to a new area.

  21. 21

    By Blurtman @ 20:

    RE: redmondjp @ 7 – We are pretty lucky to live in the Northwest. I am holding and continuing to enjoy this area. But I do like the growing equity. I think a home in this area is a nice asset and would probably keep it if we moved to a new area.

    An example of why there are less than 3,000 active listings. ;-)

  22. 22
    js says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 21:

    By Blurtman @ 19:

    RE: redmondjp @ 7 – We are pretty lucky to live in the Northwest. I am holding and continuing to enjoy this area. But I do like the growing equity. I think a home in this area is a nice asset and would probably keep it if we moved to a new area.

    An example of why there are less than 3,000 active listings. ;-)

    Yup. I’m another good example. When I moved away from Seattle, becoming a landlord seemed like a better move than selling. In a more “normal” market, I would have definitely sold.

    I’m now weighing whether to sell this spring or hold long term. The dramatic rent increases make holding a lot more attractive. And, more importantly, Erik (aka the Oracle of North Everett) seems to think prices will continue to go up.

  23. 23
    redmondjp says:

    By Blurtman @ 20:

    RE: redmondjp @ 7 – We are pretty lucky to live in the Northwest. I am holding and continuing to enjoy this area. But I do like the growing equity. I think a home in this area is a nice asset and would probably keep it if we moved to a new area.

    I agree, but as a whole society has an extremely short memory; things can change very quickly.

    I give you IBM in the 1980s, when the PC clones exploded onto the scene. IBM factories that were bustling with thousands of workers were empty and abandoned only two years later.

    Today, with tech jobs requiring nothing more than a laptop and an internet connection, tens of thousands of jobs can move or disappear overnight. I’m not saying that it will happen; just that it can happen, and much quicker than was ever possible before.

  24. 24

    By js @ 22:

    And, more importantly, Erik (aka the Oracle of North Everett) seems to think prices will continue to go up.

    Contact me for a listing when Cramer says something positive about our market. ;-)

  25. 25
    Screenname345 says:

    I can’t wait to sell my house. I am starting to think why wait for March when I can leave in January or February. My main concern is leaving money on the table, not sure if the appreciation will hit starting in March or if in this market it just doesn’t matter.

  26. 26
    Blake says:

    By Blurtman @ 21:

    RE: redmondjp @ 7 – We are pretty lucky to live in the Northwest. I am holding and continuing to enjoy this area. But I do like the growing equity. I think a home in this area is a nice asset and would probably keep it if we moved to a new area.

    My partner and I are considering all options… with the election of a corrupt, narcissistic, warmonger a certainty (!?) we may sell out and retire early to Baja. We have a property in the city and one on an island that we could rent for good cash flow… but it would be easier to cash out and not have the worries and hassles. We do love this area… at least June-September!
    Sure wish Cascadia could secede from the US!!

  27. 27
    wreckingbull says:

    RE: Blake @ 26 – Excellent ideas! I am currently building a camping/windsurfing rig out of an aluminum cargo trailer. I plan to live off grid east of the mountains in the summer and travel south to windsurf in the winter.

    I originally thought moving to Skagit County would be a final move, but big money has crept its way up here, along with the road rage, angst, and general d-baggery of Seattle.

  28. 28
    greg says:

    seems to me a lot of the people posting here are older and thinking of cashing out.

    Pretty much exactly what one expects to see when prices are out of sync with the rest of the economy /nation…

  29. 29
    David B. says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 21 – And why prices here tend to be higher than, say, Kansas City.

  30. 30
    whatsmyname says:

    By sleepless @ 14:

    If the corrupt scumbag killary wins, you get 4 years of morebama, the sheet show may last a few more years. Although, If Trump wins, it would get interesting. I believe the establishment will make everything possible to make Trump one term president – meaning inflicting severe recession / depression.

    So if I understand your position from your many posts…If Hilary wins, more or continued low rates and rising house-prices? Bad, bad, bad. But if Trump wins, the evil establishment will encourage a depression – implication in context of your reply to Eric is higher interest rates, and lower house prices? Seems like you have trapped yourself by determining all outcomes to be evil.

  31. 31

    RE: whatsmyname @ 30 – That’s why he’s Sleepless.

  32. 32
    StupidLifeDecisions says:

    By sleepless @ 15:

    By Doug @ 12:

    RE: sleepless @ 10 – This is not ‘Nam — there are rules.

    I just wanted to read what the man had to say…

    Sleepless, I agree with your comment about the markets being manipulated and your comment about hillary/trump. If there was ever a time to be concerned about upcoming change, and not make any decisions based on how things have been going the last few years, it is now.

  33. 33
    ESS says:

    Re Blake, WreckingBull and Greg #26, 27, 28

    The vibe of Seattle and area has so totally changed in the last number of years as the big money that was alluded to has taken over what was once a pretty low key and laid back area. These days it is all about how rich one is, how many expensive toys one can accumulate , the trendiest bars to frequent , and an oversize expensive home or condo only in the proper residential areas.

    And road rage – it now happens as we all crawl along at 10 miles an hour – regardless of the time or day of travel. And it is only going to get worse over time regardless if ST3 passes or not. And after crawling along for an hour to get to downtown Seattle for a visit -forget about parking the car without having to take out a payday loan.

    Nope – if one is retired or are able to work elsewhere – there are other places to reside that can be just as attractive, but offer affordability and the ability to put one’s auto in second gear now and then when traversing on the freeway (which are really free without paygo/carpool lanes).

    We too have been looking and debating if we will leave or not in a few years. The real question is what to do with the properties, both in terms of a business decision which includes the cost of others managing them, as well as where we think this market is heading……..

  34. 34
    formerSeattlite says:

    RE: Blake @ 26 – Omg, please do!! Can you also take all your left wing liberals with you? In fact, you know where else you might consider? Canada… Canada is calling your name..

  35. 35
    Sam Hunter says:

    Tim is just mad his blog gets only 10k uniques a month… whats funny is that i have been tracking the stats and when i make comments traffic is up by 5%… probably most by Kary… but still!!

    poor tim, failing blog!

    don’t deltet this big boy!!

  36. 36
    Sam Hunter says:

    BTW the next three years will experience 10%+ YOY gains. I made a post with the actual numbers if anyone cares to find it. Hope I don’t get censored by Tim.

    Whats funny is that people will look back and go “that Sam Hunter just got lucky!!’ ” Luck luck!” When in reality it is because I can put my ego aside and see the truth. Cannot wait for the shills to eat their words, especially those with poor old wrinkled wallets like our friend Kary. Some real estate professional you are!

    BTW I hope I do not get censored for saying the market will go gangbusters the next few years. I know Tim likes to keep those who are not gloom and doomers under lock and key.

  37. 37
    Sam Hunter says:

    Very funny Tim. Taking out all my vowels. Luckily people will realize you are very childish when it comes to someone with a different opinion as yours.

    Failing blog.

  38. 38
    Sam Hunter says:

    Tim, could you not have such a failing blog?

    Thanks,
    Sam Hunter

  39. 39
    The Tim says:

    If you’re incapable of reading and/or respecting the comment policy (linked in bold text just above the “post comment” button), your comments (or a portion of your comments’ letters) will be deleted.

    It is simple.

  40. 40
    Blake says:

    By formerSeattlite @ 34:

    RE: Blake @ 26 – Omg, please do!! Can you also take all your left wing liberals with you? In fact, you know where else you might consider? Canada… Canada is calling your name..

    You obviously can’t tell the difference between a leftist (me) and a liberal (Bill, Hillary and their ilk). I would have thought that Bill would have won over you right-wingers when he deregulated the financial industry and media, rammed through free trade agreements, ended welfare as we know it, and tripled the prison populations…no?? Google neoliberalism pin head:
    http://www.investopedia.com/terms/n/neoliberalism.asp
    “Neoliberalism is a policy model that transfers control of economic factors to the private sector from the public sector. It takes from the basic principles of neoclassical economics, suggesting that governments must limit subsidies, make reforms to tax law in order to expand the tax base, reduce deficit spending, limit protectionism, and open markets up to trade. Liberalism, in economics, refers to a freeing of the economy by eliminating regulations and barriers that restrict what actors can do. ”

    … Bill and Hillary have been doing their best to destroy the left and labor for decades… so you should love them! But you right-wingers depend upon Fox News, Limbaugh, and now Trump for your information, so it is no wonder you are so confused!
    Read this and open your eyes to what the Democratic Party really is today: (… to the right of Nixon and Eisenhower!)
    http://inthesetimes.com/features/listen-liberal-thomas-frank-democratic-party-elites-inequality.html

    Remember the “good ol’ days?”… the1956 Republican Platform included:
    …Provide federal assistance to low-income communities
    …Protect Social Security
    …Provide asylum for refugees
    …Extend minimum wage
    …Improve unemployment benefit system so it covers more people
    …Strengthen labor laws so workers can more easily join a union
    …Assure equal pay for equal work regardless of gender
    http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/?pid=25838

  41. 41

    RE: Blake @ 40 – I took your comment to refer to either candidate winning. I would agree with you that Hillary is not a left wing liberal, except perhaps when she’s trying to convince Bernie supporters to vote for her.

  42. 42
    Blurtman says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 41 – Green pill.

  43. 43
    ARDELL says:

    RE: Blake @ 40

    “Deregulating the financial industry” wasn’t left, right or liberal. It was just plain stoopid.

  44. 44
    Blake says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 41
    The Clintons only believe in two things… getting themselves elected and gathering as much money as they can… and these are mutually reinforcing. The fact that they are worth almost $250 million now tells you a lot…

    Yes… sadly both major candidates are self-absorbed warmongers who think they are much much smarter than anyone else! It doesn’t look good… I worked in polling for a while and the polls are all moving towards the orange maggot and voters tend to break against the incumbent party in the last few days. sh!t…

    They are fortunate to run against each other, because if either of them ran against almost anyone else they would lose!

  45. 45

    By Blake @ 44:

    They are fortunate to run against each other, because if either of them ran against almost anyone else they would lose!

    Back in 2000 I was saying that Bush and Gore were the only candidates each party could run that could lose to the other. They were very bad candidates. I think Gore only made one decent speech in his entire career, and Bush just seemed like a simple fool.

    Look how that one turned out!

  46. 46

    By ARDELL @ 43:

    RE: Blake @ 40

    “Deregulating the financial industry” wasn’t left, right or liberal. It was just plain stoopid.

    It’s the money. The current Bankruptcy Act was basically bank sponsored legislation. Congress really milked that one, finding all sorts of ways of keeping that in play for years so that they could get more and more donations. Bush even vetoed it once, but at a point in time when Congress couldn’t override the veto.

  47. 47
    pfft says:

    By Blake @ 44:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 41
    The Clintons only believe in two things… getting themselves elected and gathering as much money as they can… and these are mutually reinforcing. The fact that they are worth almost $250 million now tells you a lot…

    Yes… sadly both major candidates are self-absorbed warmongers who think they are much much smarter than anyone else! It doesn’t look good… I worked in polling for a while and the polls are all moving towards the orange maggot and voters tend to break against the incumbent party in the last few days. sh!t…

    They are fortunate to run against each other, because if either of them ran against almost anyone else they would lose!

    nate silver rhas hillary’s odds at 65%. everyone else has hillary’s odds in the 80s or 90s. PEC has hillary at 99%.

    we are going to find out that the polls severely undercounted Latinos. They are going to help her win CO, FL and NV. they may even help her get Arizona close.

    “The Clintons only believe in two things… getting themselves elected and gathering as much money as they can”

    that is odd because hillary has been telling us how she’s been helping other people for decades. nobody remember Hillarycare? eventually barack based HCR.

    donald trump is the one out for nobody but himself…

  48. 48
    pfft says:

    By ARDELL @ 43:

    RE: Blake @ 40

    “Deregulating the financial industry” wasn’t left, right or liberal. It was just plain stooped.

    don’t forget the times. The clinton economy has produced tens of millions of jobs despite the dire warnings of Republicans. CEOs were gods and the stock market and the financial sector had relatively sterling reputations. all you had to tell congress was that European banks were going to steal our business if we didn’t deregulate. I am pretty sure that was the argument back then. greenspan was god!

    it’s tough to remember how can’t miss the stock market and financial sector were in 98,99 and 2000.

  49. 49
    ARDELL says:

    RE: pfft @ 48

    And no one realized the “sterling reputations” we’re a direct result of strict regulations? I don’t think so. I’ll give you Greenspan was a god though.

  50. 50
    Blake says:

    By ARDELL @ 43:

    RE: Blake @ 40

    “Deregulating the financial industry” wasn’t left, right or liberal. It was just plain stoopid.

    I almost had a knee-jerk reaction to this, but you make a very good point. Many bad ideas like deregulation were embraced by what I like to call the “extreme center”… the invasion of Iraq, war on drugs, Patriot Act, etc. I recall after Obama announced his cabinet, the NYTimes’ resident Republican David Brooks praised them as “non-ideological.” All the policies I mentioned above were described as “no-brainers” when they were passed, which is kind of appropriate… The extreme center believes that the is no “third way” and no other options and we must all go along! They all send their kids to the same private schools, socialize at fancy parties in NY and DC, vacation in Martha’s Vineyard or the Hamptons… and they are surrounded by sycophants who tell them all the time how smart and wonderful and RIGHT they are!
    Us peons and ideologues… we simply cannot appreciate their greatness…
    Btw: In their own words:
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/oct/31/the-podesta-emails-show-who-runs-america-and-how-they-do-it

  51. 51
    Blurtman says:

    RE: Blake @ 50

    I recall after Obama announced his Citibank selected cabinet,

  52. 52
    pfft says:

    By Blurtman @ 51:

    RE: Blake @ 50

    I recall after Obama announced his Citibank selected cabinet,

    and yet still passed the most sweeping wall st reform since the great depression.

  53. 53
    formerSeattlite says:

    RE: Blake @ 40 – And you listen to CNN? The Clinton News Network? Right. They’re not biased at all.

    Get that nonsense out of here. Keep this blog about real estate, not your display of political ineptitude.

  54. 54

    Returning to real estate, how many thousands of new active Seattle listings do you think will happen if Trump is elected? ;-)

  55. 55
    Hugh Dominic says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 54:

    Returning to real estate, how many thousands of new active Seattle listings do you think will happen if Trump is elected? ;-)

    None. My hypothesis that home prices and active listings correlate to Amazon local hiring and stock price. That company must import tens of millions of dollars into our area each year, much of which goes into our RE market, as with it comes commensurate numbers of people.

    Stock price is off highs by 10-15%, so I’m expecting a softer spring. No matter who is elected.

  56. 56
    Hugh Dominic says:

    Ah, time to sit down and enjoy some coffee while I read Seattle Bubble…

    that is odd because hillary has been telling us how she’s been helping other people, for decades. nobody remember Hillarycare? eventually barack based HCR.

    …pffft! Coffee all over my keyboard.

    I do remember the Billary Clinton co-presidency. Or at least the attempt at it. Eventually she realized that she was not the one elected and was not welcome to set policy.

    She is power-hungry and believes she is entitled to it. She sells favors to interest groups and constituents alike as a means to attain power. She will say whatever the polls tell her. And she has perfected the art of turning government power into personal enrichment. As far as she’s concerned, its one dollar of government programs for you, and one for her, times the 150 million people that she has to buy to get elected.

    It’s a payout ratio that is not unlike the CEOs that she vilifies as she panders to the left.

    I voted for Trump. I think they are both selfish manipulators, but I think he’ll be less effective at it because he’s a government outsider.

  57. 57
    StupidLifeDecisions says:

    By Hugh Dominic @ 55:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 54:

    Returning to real estate, how many thousands of new active Seattle listings do you think will happen if Trump is elected? ;-)

    None. My hypothesis that home prices and active listings correlate to Amazon local hiring and stock price. That company must import tens of millions of dollars into our area each year, much of which goes into our RE market, as with it comes commensurate numbers of people.

    Stock price is off highs by 10-15%, so I’m expecting a softer spring. No matter who is elected.

    I share your hypothesis, but would also add chinese buyers and other IT companies/IT salaries in the mix, but amazon is probably the major cause of the problem. I really hate that company.

  58. 58
    Hugh Dominic says:

    RE: StupidLifeDecisions @ 57 – the scary thing about Chinese buyers is how quickly that cash flow can stop and then reverse. A tough year in Beijing could throw our region from bubble to crash, leaving the actual residents of this town reeling in debt and without equity. Without warning, and unrelated to any local policies or trends.

  59. 59
    pfft says:

    By Hugh Dominic @ 56:

    Ah, time to sit down and enjoy some coffee while I read Seattle Bubble…

    that is odd because hillary has been telling us how she’s been helping other people, for decades. nobody remember Hillarycare? eventually barack based HCR.

    …pffft! Coffee all over my keyboard.

    I do remember the Billary Clinton co-presidency. Or at least the attempt at it. Eventually she realized that she was not the one elected and was not welcome to set policy.

    She is power-hungry and believes she is entitled to it. She sells favors to interest groups and constituents alike as a means to attain power. She will say whatever the polls tell her. And she has perfected the art of turning government power into personal enrichment. As far as she’s concerned, its one dollar of government programs for you, and one for her, times the 150 million people that she has to buy to get elected.

    It’s a payout ratio that is not unlike the CEOs that she vilifies as she panders to the left.

    I voted for Trump. I think they are both selfish manipulators, but I think he’ll be less effective at it because he’s a government outsider.

    didn’t trump brag about how he bribes politicians?

    Trump bragged that his money bought off politicians. Just not this time.
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-bragged-that-his-money-bought-off-politicians-just-not-this-time/2016/09/07/00a9d1e4-750b-11e6-be4f-3f42f2e5a49e_story.html

    “She is power-hungry and believes she is entitled to it.”

    actually didn’t trump say he’s entitled to something because he’s a star?

    let’s talk about e-mails.

    Lawsuits show that Donald Trump’s companies regularly delete emails and other records
    http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/10/31/13477574/donald-trump-emails

  60. 60
    redmondjp says:

    RE: Hugh Dominic @ 58 – Just a few hours ago I heard from a coworker about a new-hire from China. Her parents just spent almost $1M (all-cash; they beat out 43 other offers) to buy her a house in English Hill in North Redmond, and they aren’t planning on coming over here for another few years.

    It is truly scary. Our own Bernanke Bucks coming home to roost . . .

  61. 61

    By Hugh Dominic @ 55:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 54:

    Returning to real estate, how many thousands of new active Seattle listings do you think will happen if Trump is elected? ;-)

    None. My hypothesis that home prices and active listings correlate to Amazon local hiring and stock price. That company must import tens of millions of dollars into our area each year, much of which goes into our RE market, as with it comes commensurate numbers of people.

    Stock price is off highs by 10-15%, so I’m expecting a softer spring. No matter who is elected.

    You do realize I wasn’t serious, right?

  62. 62
    Hugh Dominic says:

    RE: redmondjp @ 59 – we’ll know it’s real when the east side developers start naming their projects “888 Super Lucky Estates” instead of “Mountain View Fox Pine Trail”.

  63. 63
    Hugh Dominic says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 60 – Yes.

  64. 64
    Hugh Dominic says:

    By redmondjp @ 59:

    RE: Hugh Dominic @ 58 – Just a few hours ago I heard from a coworker about a new-hire from China. Her parents just spent almost $1M (all-cash; they beat out 43 other offers) to buy her a house in English Hill in North Redmond, and they aren’t planning on coming over here for another few years.

    It is truly scary. Our own Bernanke Bucks coming home to roost . . .

    By the way the same thing happened down the street from me. Their daughter lived there for just three years, then they sold for 25% more than they paid. That sort of thing makes its way back to China and then becomes part of the legend of easy money in Seattle. And then all our houses turn into tulips for the Chinese, if you catch my meaning.

  65. 65
    Blurtman says:

    RE: Hugh Dominic @ 63 – Same in my neighborhood. Parents purchased a home for cash for their kids, did not negotiate the asking price. The son moved in with his fiancé. Parents came out for extended visits. The young couple is very nice. And so it goes.

  66. 66
    ESS says:

    article in paper about housing on two ends of the financial spectrum:

    sales of million dollar houses increased dramatically in King County
    getting to be impossible to find houses for sale.

    Apparently when the tide comes in – all boats float higher – including rowboats.

    As per overseas buyers – at least many are paying all cash, and won’t abandon their properties en mass if the market undergoes a significant decrease in value.

    Am awaiting real data that indicates if foreign buyers affected by Vancouver’s taxing structure are impacting the Puget Sound market, and if so, to what degree.

    I guess we will know that foreign sales are impacting the local market when we hear strident demands to either limit or tax those sales.

  67. 67

    By ESS @ 65:

    I guess we will know that foreign sales are impacting the local market when we hear strident demands to either limit or tax those sales.

    No, that will just mean that the press has written X number of stories about the issue, without any “real data” and people are reacting to it.

    BTW, I think it would take a change in federal law to either limit or tax such sales. Of course, that didn’t stop the Times from running a poll.

  68. 68

    PSA: When it comes time to change your smoke detector batteries this year, also consider replacing the whole unit(s) if it is either 10 years old or you don’t know how old it is. Most newer units will have a manufacture date inside. Except for some townhouses where it is 20′ off the ground, replacement isn’t that tough, even for the wired units (assuming you have a basic understanding of wiring and are qualified to do simple tasks like change an outlet).

  69. 69
    ESS says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 66:

    By ESS @ 65:

    I guess we will know that foreign sales are impacting the local market when we hear strident demands to either limit or tax those sales.

    No, that will just mean that the press has written X number of stories about the issue, without any “real data” and people are reacting to it.

    BTW, I think it would take a change in federal law to either limit or tax such sales. Of course, that didn’t stop the Times from running a poll.

    Probably correct about the feds having to change the law. Based upon my limited knowledge of that area of law, I would guess (emphasis on guess) that a law limiting those kind of sales would either be found to be unconstitutional, or if adjudicated to be constitutional, have so many ways to avoid it that it would almost be meaningless.

    Stories about “foreign money” are not only sensational, but in the comments always have individuals demanding that taxes be imposed upon “foreign money”. Vancouver has provided a model for those in favor of such limitations.

  70. 70
    Justme says:

    By ESS @ 65:

    sales of million dollar houses increased dramatically in King County
    getting to be impossible to find houses for sale.

    There are tons of 1.5M+ homes sitting unsold with a 60+ days on market average on Mercer Island. Any fool can buy one, all you need is lots of ill-gotten cash.

  71. 71

    RE: ESS @ 68 – I was thinking more about the Fair Housing Act, but there may be constitutional issues too.

  72. 72
    Brian says:

    By ESS @ 65:

    As per overseas buyers – at least many are paying all cash, and won’t abandon their properties en mass if the market undergoes a significant decrease in value.

    That doesn’t seem entirely true. If they bought them as an investment or as a place to safely store their cash, and that investment turns sour, it seems like they’ll withdraw their cash. Since it’s an all-cash investment, they aren’t tied down by mortgages and don’t need to find another place to live after selling, so getting out doesn’t take much thought or time.

    They’ve already made a lot more on appreciation than the sale commissions are going to cost, so that also makes it easier to say goodbye.

  73. 73
    Justme says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 70

    The US clearly does not believe that constitutional protections apply to non-citizens. A prime example would be the treatment of prisoners at Guantanamo Bay , in particular the complete lack of due process. The preceding is clearly morally wrong, but what prevents the US from similarly discriminating against non-citizen RE buyers?

    And does the Fair Housing Act explicitly apply to non-citizens?

  74. 74
    ESS says:

    By ESS @ 65:

    article in paper about housing on two ends of the financial spectrum:

    sales of million dollar houses increased dramatically in King County
    getting to be impossible to find houses for sale.

    Apparently when the tide comes in – all boats float higher – including rowboats.

    As per overseas buyers – at least many are paying all cash, and won’t abandon their properties en mass if the market undergoes a significant decrease in value.

    Am awaiting real data that indicates if foreign buyers affected by Vancouver’s taxing structure are impacting the Puget Sound market, and if so, to what degree.

    I guess we will know that foreign sales are impacting the local market when we hear strident demands to either limit or tax those sales.

    The article actually said that

    it was getting harder to find lower priced houses ( as defined below 250K) for sale in King Co. Something like less than 5%.

  75. 75
    ESS says:

    By Brian @ 71:

    By ESS @ 65:

    As per overseas buyers – at least many are paying all cash, and won’t abandon their properties en mass if the market undergoes a significant decrease in value.

    That doesn’t seem entirely true. If they bought them as an investment or as a place to safely store their cash, and that investment turns sour, it seems like they’ll withdraw their cash. Since it’s an all-cash investment, they aren’t tied down by mortgages and don’t need to find another place to live after selling, so getting out doesn’t take much thought or time.

    They’ve already made a lot more on appreciation than the sale commissions are going to cost, so that also makes it easier to say goodbye.

    I was thinking an all cash sale is better than a zero to 3% down payment by people who had no chance to maintain their mortgage on a residence. When they were unable to make their payments – they simply walked way. Yes those with substantial payments may sell for less, but they won’t simply walk away if the prices turn down and as a result glut the market with empty houses owned by banks and mortgage companies.

  76. 76

    By Justme @ 72:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 70

    The US clearly does not believe that constitutional protections apply to non-citizens. A prime example would be the treatment of prisoners at Guantanamo Bay , in particular the complete lack of due process. The preceding is clearly morally wrong, but what prevents the US from similarly discriminating against non-citizen RE buyers?

    And does the Fair Housing Act explicitly apply to non-citizens?

    It’s not the citizenship as much as the location. The prisoners are at Guantanamo for a reason.

    The Fair Housing Act includes national origin as a protected class. I don’t think citizenship is a factor at all.

  77. 77

    By Brian @ 71:

    By ESS @ 65:

    As per overseas buyers – at least many are paying all cash, and won’t abandon their properties en mass if the market undergoes a significant decrease in value.

    That doesn’t seem entirely true. If they bought them as an investment or as a place to safely store their cash, and that investment turns sour, it seems like they’ll withdraw their cash.

    Remember though exchange rate might be a factor too. So even if our prices are declining they may consider the asset to still be adventitious to hold.

  78. 78

    RE: sleepless @ 14
    That’s Assuming Rule of Law is Inhibited Under Trump

    Not gonna happen….ask all the Trump Supporters in military and law enforcemnet [FBI]…..DRAIN THE SWAMP!!!

    FBI hates the establishment….its obvious.

  79. 79
    Hugh Dominic says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 76 – or that could swing the other way. The fact that most homeowners occupy their homes acts as a natural flywheel that slows panic selling. It’s more complicated to tear up roots and find a new place to live, as compared to just putting up a for sale sign.

    So let’s say 50% of the homes in an area were owned by overseas Chinese, and 50% were owned and occupied by locals. During the Chinese buy-in, the prices escalated, forcing the local buyers to engage high debt. Later, faced with a skyrocketing Yuan the Chinese start seeing the value of these assets plummet against their own currency. And they sell en masse.

    The locals that sold to the Chinese during the run up, and moved out of the area are the winners. The locals that bought into the area and competed with an influx of Chinese $ to do so are screwed.

    I’m fine with locals screwing themselves, but it’s not so great when they are bystanders to overseas speculation.

    I don’t have data. No that’s not true – I have anecdotal data, which is a kind of data.

  80. 80
    Anonymous Coward says:

    By Hugh Dominic @ 78:

    Later, faced with a skyrocketing Yuan…

    Theoretically speaking, this is a very good common sense analysis based on sound economic theory. Practically speaking, “Ha, ha ha! Ohhh! Ha! Ha! Ha! He said ‘skyrocketing yuan!’ *snort* Ho! Ho! He! He!” We’ll see pfft’s tech crash leading to massive unemployment long before we see prices crater due a rising yuan.

  81. 81
    Erik says:

    RE: Doug @ 6
    No, but that wasn’t because I didn’t want to. I want to buy 2 this year. We are probably good through 2024 at least. I will be buying 10 total. I will stop buying in 2024. If prices keep going up, great! If the market tanks, I will rent the properties out and do what ray peppers did to get rich last time the bubble burst.

  82. 82
    Doug says:

    RE: Erik @ 81 – Does the Trump presidency change anything for you? Or higher mortgage rates?

  83. 83

    By Doug @ 82:

    RE: Erik @ 81 – Does the Trump presidency change anything for you?

    Usually I say that a change in President doesn’t make that much difference. But this time maybe that’s different because now in two years there’s a greater chance that Seattle will be radioactive. ;-)

  84. 84
    Erik says:

    RE: Doug @ 82
    No. I will just buy the rentals. I don’t like to think about it too much or i’ll talk myself out of it.

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