Consumer Confidence at levels not seen since the dot-com bust

It’s been quite a while since we last checked in on Consumer Confidence and mortgage interest rates, so let’s take a look at an update to those charts.

First up, here’s the Consumer Confidence data as of March:

Consumer Confidence

The overall Consumer Confidence Index currently sits at 127.7, down two percent in a month and up two percent from a year ago. The current levels are higher than any point since late 2000, just as the dot-com bubble was bursting.

At 159.9, the Present Situation Index fell one percent between February and March, and is up eleven percent from a year earlier. The Present Situation Index is currently up 695 percent from its December 2009 low point, and is up sixteen percent from its pre-bust peak in July 2007.

The Expectations Index also declined slightly in March, down three percent from February, and is down from a year earlier by five percent.

Here’s your chart of home mortgage 30-year interest rates via the Federal Reserve:

Mortgage Interest Rates

As of last week, the 30-year mortgage rate was at 4.44 percent, and has been climbing steadily since last September. Current interest rates are roughly on par with where they were in August 2011 and still two points below the 6.41 percent average rate during the height of the housing bubble through 2006.

With the Federal Reserve finally raising rates, it is likely that mortgage rates will follow suit later this year. We may finally be past the days of sub-four-percent rates.

Click below for the interactive Consumer Confidence chart in Tableau.

You can use the sliders under the interactive chart below to zoom in on the data for a specific period.



About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

84 comments:

  1. 1
    Jake says:

    “We may finally be past the days of sub-four-percent rates”……

    Until the next recession, which will happen, and probably soon.

  2. 2
    pfft says:

    Speaking of the tech bubble…

    Spotify Goes Public Valued At Nearly $30 Billion – But Its Future Isn’t Guaranteed
    https://www.npr.org/sections/therecord/2018/04/03/599131554/spotify-goes-public-valued-at-nearly-30-billion-but-its-future-isnt-guaranteed

    What? At least it has revenue though. Not profitable yet though.

  3. 3
    Deerhawke says:

    Just to put things in perspective…

    The first mortgage I helped pay was my parents’ 30-year 4.5% VA loan taken out in 1958. I lived through the Volcker years under Carter and Reagan and saw 30 year residential mortgages at 18.5% although most people seemed to take out variable rate loans then at about 15%. My first mortgage was on an apartment in Queens NY in 1985 for 13%. My next loan was on my first house here in Seattle at in 1992 at 9 5/8%. We then got some rental units in the 7-8% range. When we built our current house in 2005 it was also a variable at about 7%, which dropped and dropped and dropped until we refinanced for tax purposes last year with a 7 year ARM for 3.25%.

    So what all the hew and cry is about is that mortgage rates have come off a historic bottom and are now back to where they were in 1958. Still seems like cheap money to me.

  4. 4
    greg you says:

    Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful

  5. 5
    N says:

    @ Deerhawke 3 – I don’t think it’s a question of whether its cheap money but whether many can afford the current housing prices with stepped up mortgage rates.

    The dual income tech workers obviously can, but many others were already bumping up against their max to afford houses and/or others either have student loan debt or lifestyle choices that make this hard to swallow. Not only are home prices up 50% or more but other lifestyle things like eating out have gone up drastically, largely because of the step up in minimum wage.

  6. 6
    Deerhawke says:

    Solid article in the NY Times this past week on the national real estate market. It particular it looks at:
    – Mortgage rates
    -New tax law
    – Millenial demographics and strong demand
    – The hangover effect of the Recession and zoning restrictions on supply

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/28/upshot/housing-sales-mortgage-rates-tax-law.html

    (For those of you who view this as “fake news”, I am sure Fox and Friends will eventually cover this as a breathless conspiracy about how all this is, once again, the effect of Obama helping immigrants and interplanetary aliens who look like Hillary Clinton. See also World Weekly News at the checkout counter.)

  7. 7
  8. 8
    Joe_Clave says:

    RE: N @ 5

    Exactly. I am waiting to see if prices respond the way they should (ticking down, or at least slowing down!). If they go up unabated, I will be fully convinced we are in a bubble (I am only half-convinced currently).

  9. 9
    bubble blower says:

    The Free Design – Bubbles
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CsGo6mxQaUM

  10. 10
    Green-Horn says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 6

    I roll my eyes plenty when the Bien-Pensant scribblers try to get emotionally manipulative or jazz up otherwise dry facts with loaded language. But that article you share is fine work based on straight technical facts.

    Regarding the Millennials…

    In many other countries & cultures, it’s quite common for successful middle-class families to raise children in apartments. The single family home with a back yard is an exception there. Many are predicting that Millennials will return to their suburban roots like salmon seek out the streams where they originated in order to spawn.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-04-03/millennials-moving-to-suburbs-will-change-economic-development

    What’s the thinking among this crowd?

  11. 11
    wreckingbull says:

    By Deerhawke @ 3:

    Just to put things in perspective…

    So what all the hew and cry is about is that mortgage rates have come off a historic bottom and are now back to where they were in 1958. Still seems like cheap money to me.

    The article you posted answers your own question with an example of the reduction of buying power.

    “For a family resolving to pay $2,000 a month for a home mortgage and not a penny more, the math works out that they can afford to borrow $397,000 today, down from $430,000 in September. ”

    When home prices are rising faster than down-payment savings, it absolutely makes a difference.

  12. 12
    whatsmyname says:

    By wreckingbull @ 11:

    “For a family resolving to pay $2,000 a month for a home mortgage and not a penny more, the math works out that they can afford to borrow $397,000 today, down from $430,000 in September. ”

    When home prices are rising faster than down-payment savings, it absolutely makes a difference.

    They probably should have bought a few years ago. I wonder what kind of advice they would have been getting then.

  13. 13
    Anonymous Coward says:

    By Green-Horn @ 10:

    RE:

    I roll my eyes plenty when the Bien-Pensant scribblers try to get emotionally manipulative or jazz up otherwise dry facts with loaded language. But that article you share is fine work based on straight technical facts.

    Regarding the Millennials…

    In many other countries & cultures, it’s quite common for successful middle-class families to raise children in apartments. The single family home with a back yard is an exception there. Many are predicting that Millennials will return to their suburban roots like salmon seek out the streams where they originated in order to spawn.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-04-03/millennials-moving-to-suburbs-will-change-economic-development

    What’s the thinking among this crowd?

    Let’s be careful here and not confuse single family home ownership with city vs suburb in this discussion. And let’s also keep in mind that generalizations applicable at the national level may not hold at the local level here in Seattle. With that in mind, I do think the millennials preferences have shifted from suburbs to urban area, BUT as they marry and have kids, we’re seeing they, like everyone else, prefer SFHs over condos/apartments. The sticky wicket is that there’s not enough SFHs in Seattle for every millennial that wants one to be able to buy one. So the net effect is that the wealthiest 5-10% of millennials are buying houses in the city when in the past they would’ve moved to the suburbs. Meanwhile, their friends of less means are faced with the choice of renting a 900 sq ft 2 bedroom apartment/condo in the city or moving and buying a place in the suburbs. For most people, that’s a no brainer. Do people all over the world have families in 500sq apartments? Sure, and people all over the world live in huts without running water, but that doesn’t mean they’d choose it over a 2500sq ft SFH in the suburbs. The careful reader will note that multi-family units CAN be 2500sq ft and 4 or 5 bedrooms and that in many parts of the world people do choose the large apartment/condo over the house. But we here in Seattle didn’t bother building any of those, nor did we bother to plan on building any of those, so that option is pretty much off the table.

    Demographics makes me bullish here in Seattle…

  14. 14

    By Joe_Clave @ 8:

    RE: N @ 5

    Exactly. I am waiting to see if prices respond the way they should (ticking down, or at least slowing down!). If they go up unabated, I will be fully convinced we are in a bubble (I am only half-convinced currently).

    The only thing wrong with that test is prices in Seattle did not tick down after interest rates rose in the late 70s, early 80s, even though prices rose significantly before the rates rose.

    The only way to know we’re in a bubble is after the fact–after the pop.

  15. 15
    ess says:

    By Green-Horn @ 10:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 6

    I roll my eyes plenty when the Bien-Pensant scribblers try to get emotionally manipulative or jazz up otherwise dry facts with loaded language. But that article you share is fine work based on straight technical facts.

    Regarding the Millennials…

    In many other countries & cultures, it’s quite common for successful middle-class families to raise children in apartments. The single family home with a back yard is an exception there. Many are predicting that Millennials will return to their suburban roots like salmon seek out the streams where they originated in order to spawn.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-04-03/millennials-moving-to-suburbs-will-change-economic-development

    What’s the thinking among this crowd?

    Green

    Thanks for posting interesting article. Couple of points

    – Article indicates that as we have discussed here in the past – the wrong type of housing is being constructed in Seattle – expensive one and two bedroom apartments, rather than affordable single family houses and condos.

    -Young marrieds want to move to the suburbs? I don’t know about that – some do and some don’t. In this area, it may be a function of price rather than desire where one lives, especially when one adds expensive children to the mix.

    -Seattle has many neighborhoods that have the look and feel of suburbs – i.e. single family neighborhoods. With the increased population in Seattle, and the subsequent increase in density, a number of neighborhoods are losing the once suburban character that Seattle had as those houses disappear and townhouses and apartments take their place.

    -As per the article discussing jobs in the suburbs – here is an ambitious plan to expand employment opportunities for one area – increasingly a suburb of Seattle

    http://www.heraldnet.com/news/publics-input-sought-on-proposed-industrial-center/

  16. 16

    By ess @ 15:

    – Article indicates that as we have discussed here in the past – the wrong type of housing is being constructed in Seattle – expensive one and two bedroom apartments, rather than affordable single family houses and condos.

    -Young marrieds want to move to the suburbs? I don’t know about that – some do and some don’t. In this area, it may be a function of price rather than desire where one lives, especially when one adds expensive children to the mix.

    -Seattle has many neighborhoods that have the look and feel of suburbs – i.e. single family neighborhoods.

    As to the first point, there’s some project being built way out in Maple Valley that I suspect is an apartment complex, although it’s possible it’s condo. It’s not quite as high density as what you would see in Seattle in that there’s more separation between the buildings, but it does seem surprising to see that type of project out there.

    I agree you can’t generalize about what young marrieds want, or what they want for their children, but multifamily is not a typical first choice for people with children.

    I once had a client from NYC who referred to the Greenwood area as suburban. Just a matter of what you’re used to!

  17. 17

    RE: Green-Horn @ 10
    The Polls Document Millennial Women

    70% just want to be stay at home housewives [with the hubby bringing home the bacon]….BTW, a housewife alone is a full time job, try doing it yourself ;-0

  18. 18

    RE: ess @ 15
    Kids Growing Up With Video Games Apartments Instead of a Back Yard

    Don’t innovate or invent like kids with open space. Ask a psychologist. The college degree is a moot point in this case too. Overpopulation is a good way to destroy your advancement and wealth.

  19. 19

    SWE’s MOM Investor Report for Mar 2018

    Mar 0.24% 0.65% (2.55%) 0.69% (0.76%)
    YTD 0.66% (1.45%) (0.77%) 0.11% (1.08%)
    Last 12 mo 2.40% 1.37% 13.96% 13.18% 15.56%

    In order: CDs, Long-term Bonds, American Stocks, Foreign Stocks, Foreign Stocks.

    Trillions lost in stocks for Mar 2018….Continuing Budget Resolution uncertainty to blame over DACA.

    Thank God Feb and Jan 2018 weren’t this bad.

  20. 20
    N says:

    Toronto – What a difference a year makes. It’s interesting that new listings were actually down year over year yet they went from less than 1 month of inventory to 2-3 months.

    Home sales in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) plunged 39.5% in March compared to a year ago, to 7,228 homes, according to the Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB), the local real estate lobbying group.

    The average price for the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) plunged 14.3% year-over-year to C$784,588. In other words, the average buyer in March a year ago is now about C$130,000 in the hole.

    While new listings of homes for sale fell 12.4% year-over-year, at 14,866, they’d surged 41% from the prior month, and added to the listings of homes already on the market. The total number of active listings – new listings plus the listings from prior months that hadn’t sold or been pulled without having sold – more than doubled year-over-year to 15,971 homes, and were up 20% from February.

    https://wolfstreet.com/2018/04/04/toronto-house-price-bubble-turns-to-bust/

  21. 21
    S-Crow says:

    April 3rd , 2018: ‘Detached house sales on Vancouver’s west side are down 70 per cent in the first three months of this year…..,’ said Brent Eilers of Re/Max Masters Realty of West Vancouver (Canada).

    70%. At least it’s not 100%. Fortunately, we have a “moat” around the Puget Sound housing market.

  22. 22

    RE: S-Crow @ 21 – Is that due to fewer buyers or fewer listings?

  23. 23
    Green-Horn says:

    RE: ess @ 15

    I really like the idea of spreading around the economic development.

    To be sure many of the people lured to the agreeable climate and outstanding opportunities for outdoor recreation could be even more satisfied to live around Arlington, Bremerton, etc. if their jobs were at least also nearby.

    It’s a challenge to persuade employers to set up there because these places don’t yet have the critical mass of potential talent.

    Even if Expedia finds it necessary to set up their new HQ behind a horrible traffic bottleneck, it’s my hope that some major “lighthouse” employers will eventually get the idea to discover places like Bremerton like Uber has located in Oakland.

  24. 24
    Green-Horn says:

    RE: Green-Horn @ 23

    I take that last bit about Uber back.

    Looks like they decided to back out of their Oakland HQ…

    Some trends cannot be bucked.

    Employers continue to concentrate where the talent wishes to be.

  25. 25
    Green-Horn says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 17RE: softwarengineer @ 17

    I have to envy the housewives.

    Would rather stay home changing diapers or planning cub scouts activities or PTA stuff than deal with daily commute, unpleasant colleagues & other joys of the rat-race.

    The biggest scam of the century was when feminists brainwashed women to trade motherhood & tranquil home-life for the rat-race.

    It never stops!
    https://www.bustle.com/p/young-women-are-convinced-motherhood-is-going-to-suck-theyre-right-8522780

    It’s human nature to envy privileges & powers without appreciating the responsibilities & unpleasantness that go with them.

    Everybody’s grass is greener.

    Regarding Motherhood, I’m convinced a major cohort of the coming generations are simply going to age out of their fertile years without getting around to family because life has so many other things to offer for them.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2015/04/27/baby-bust-millenials-birth-rate-drop-may-signal-historic-shift.html

    https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-09-20/the-consequences-of-the-u-s-baby-bust

    It also looks like they’re finally getting the message that a fish doesn’t need a bicycle and a bicycle certainly has little use for the fish.

    https://www.citylab.com/life/2014/09/not-married-the-odds-that-you-never-will-be-are-higher-than-ever/380686/

    http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2014/09/24/record-share-of-americans-have-never-married/

    Follow the trends, and we may be grateful that more young ones aren’t interested in family formation because we haven’t gotten around to building the additional housing necessary for forming and raising families.

  26. 26
    wreckingbull says:

    By Green-Horn @ 23:

    RE: ess @ 15

    It’s a challenge to persuade employers to set up there because these places don’t yet have the critical mass of potential talent.

    This is my neck of the woods and I am familiar with the Arlington initiative mentioned in the link. You actually have it partially backward. One of the things driving this is that so many residents of the area, skilled aerospace and high-tech manufacturing workers, are commuting south for their jobs. They literally are trying to bring the jobs home. The talent is already there.

  27. 27
    David says:

    Come with me to Hong Kong. They all live in high rise condos. Economically, HK politicians make Republicans look like Frenchmen. Not sure about their level of innovation, but they sure have a lot of businesses operating there.

    Millennials want to be stay-at-home moms? Prior generations have really downplayed the joys of having kids. Maybe this generation will see the Baby Boomers for what they are – entitled & destructive twits.

    BTW, in terms of getting married and risking your assets, usually, assets acquired before marriage are not accessible if you get divorced – at least that was the case when I last studied divorce matter in another state. Check with a divorce lawyer though. And you can always get a prenup outlining your assets. I wouldn’t be as worried about getting married if you have that.

    RE: softwarengineer @ 18

  28. 28
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Anonymous Coward @ 13

    A look at my kids and their friends tells me a lot about their millenial demographic.

    For the past few years, they have been living in small apartments in cool-kid neighborhoods like Capitol Hill or Ballard. Inconceivable to live in a place that doesn’t have a neighborhood bar, a local grocery, a sushi bar, etc. A lot of their friends took off for San Francisco, Manhattan and Brooklyn to work in fashion, tech or some kind of start-up. Now they are realizing that Seattle is cheaper and are filtering back.

    The older millenials among them are finally starting to re-think that lifestyle. Too cramped, no room for hobbies, and of course no room for kids. As the young women in relationships start hearing their biological clocks ticking louder and louder, they are deciding that it would really be OK to live somewhere close-in rather than somewhere central and cool.

    Several young couples chased houses in Wallingford and Greenlake, Ballard and West Seattle. A couple of them got lucky but they still paid a lot of money and will be remodeling for life. One of their group who has some family resources put in an offer this past week and got outbid by $400K– and he was already well over asking. (This I need to find out about).

    I have heard them discussing Shoreline as a possibility but that still seems too remote without a light rail station. One got a job north of the city and decided that Edmonds had enough of an urban vibe so bought a place close to the downtown there.

    But none of these kids has even begun to think of Lynnwood or Stony Point or Everett or Arlington. For them that is like giving up on everything familiar and accepting a different culture and a really painful commute. They have been walking or biking to work for the past few years. The idea of spending an hour each way in traffic is a pretty unthinkable.

    Until we can begin to really roll out light rail and get some density around those stations, millenials are going to be bidding up the close-in neighborhoods around the city. Count on it.

  29. 29
    Boater says:

    By Green-Horn @ 25:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 17RE: softwarengineer @ 17

    I have to envy the housewives.

    Would rather stay home changing diapers or planning cub scouts activities or PTA stuff than deal with daily commute, unpleasant colleagues & other joys of the rat-race.

    The biggest scam of the century was when feminists brainwashed women to trade motherhood & tranquil home-life for the rat-race.

    It never stops!
    https://www.bustle.com/p/young-women-are-convinced-motherhood-is-going-to-suck-theyre-right-8522780

    It’s human nature to envy privileges & powers without appreciating the responsibilities & unpleasantness that go with them.

    Everybody’s grass is greener.

    Regarding Motherhood, I’m convinced a major cohort of the coming generations are simply going to age out of their fertile years without getting around to family because life has so many other things to offer for them.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2015/04/27/baby-bust-millenials-birth-rate-drop-may-signal-historic-shift.html

    https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-09-20/the-consequences-of-the-u-s-baby-bust

    It also looks like they’re finally getting the message that a fish doesn’t need a bicycle and a bicycle certainly has little use for the fish.

    https://www.citylab.com/life/2014/09/not-married-the-odds-that-you-never-will-be-are-higher-than-ever/380686/

    http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2014/09/24/record-share-of-americans-have-never-married/

    Follow the trends, and we may be grateful that more young ones aren’t interested in family formation because we haven’t gotten around to building the additional housing necessary for forming and raising families.

    Having worked as a mid level manager in tech for a while and being a full time stay at home parent I can assure you that you have the order of which is more relaxing wrong. There is nothing peaceful about children all day. They are your worst employee ever and the only reason you don’t kill them is you love them.

    A daily two hour round trip commute sounds like a little slice of heaven vs all day with preschoolers. Do it for a month and you will run back to work.

  30. 30
    redmondjp says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 28 – Light rail is not going to fix anything. When you add up the time it takes to get to and from the rail on each end, you are better off driving. If you are a few stops away from your workplace and can walk to and from the stations, then fine, use it – I would in that case.

    But this notion that light rail is going to fix anything here is simply not true. It has too many shortcomings and even when fully built out, will handle far too few people to really make a difference.

    What will make a difference is when HQ2 is built out and people start transferring en masse to the new location, far away from Seattle.

  31. 31
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: redmondjp @ 29

    I have lived in Manhattan, Tokyo and Nagoya. I would personally have been happier if we had chosen a heavy-rail fast start/fast stop system like the ones in those cities, but it is more expensive.

    But there is no question that rail works. Can you imagine what it would have been like in those places if they did not have rail? It would be like Bangkok or Manila– a polluted mess! Chaos!

    Light rail may not work for you and your commute, but it does for millions and millions of people in dense urban areas. Something to think about is that if rail had existed, you might not have chosen to live where you live given where you work. But in the future, it will be a major considerationin where you live for everyone, and especially young people.

    And increasingly it really works for me. I had a friend come in from LA last week at 5pm. Instead of trying to fight (and contribute to) the afternoon commute, I told him I would pick him up at Husky Stadium. Total piece of cake for both of us.

    When I want to go to a Mariners game or to the airport, I grab an Uber to Husky Station and I don’t have to worry about traffic or parking. And the important thing to remember is that during that trip, I am not contributing to the traffic nightmare for others.

    Over time, as the rail system gets filled out, you may find it makes sense for you to move to be able to take advantage of it.

  32. 32
    David says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 31 – Light rail is a perk for the privileged 1% in Seattle who can afford to live close enough to the stations. The other 99% of the people who are having to pay to move themselves have no benefit from it – and will be paying to move other people the rest of their working lives and beyond.

    I’m intimately familiar with Japan – they have a population density vastly greater than Seattle and can apparently build much less expensively than US rail contractors.

  33. 33
    Anonymous Coward says:

    By Deerhawke @ 28:

    RE: Anonymous Coward @ 13

    The older millenials among them are finally starting to re-think that lifestyle. Too cramped, no room for hobbies, and of course no room for kids. As the young women in relationships start hearing their biological clocks ticking louder and louder, they are deciding that it would really be OK to live somewhere close-in rather than somewhere central and cool.

    I have heard them discussing Shoreline as a possibility but that still seems too remote without a light rail station. One got a job north of the city and decided that Edmonds had enough of an urban vibe so bought a place close to the downtown there.

    But none of these kids has even begun to think of Lynnwood or Stony Point or Everett or Arlington. For them that is like giving up on everything familiar and accepting a different culture and a really painful commute. They have been walking or biking to work for the past few years. The idea of spending an hour each way in traffic is a pretty unthinkable.

    Until we can begin to really roll out light rail and get some density around those stations, millenials are going to be bidding up the close-in neighborhoods around the city. Count on it.

    This is pretty close to my observations from our social circle as a late X-er married to an early Millennial. We lived in Kent for 10 years and then moved to West Seattle. As our friends have aged and had kids, then more kids, the general trend has been the more you can afford, the closer in you buy. The exceptions are those who work downtown and decide to ride the Sounder up from Tacoma.

  34. 34

    RE: N @ 20
    $1.6 Million for a Middle Class House in San Francisco

    Actually the homes in San Francisco are crammed together with no land….reminds me of Kent…..LOL

    So I’d call these lower Middle Class quality…but $1.6M each….SWE is pulling this figure out of the air?

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-04/san-francisco-s-median-home-price-hits-a-new-high-1-6-million

    LOL :-)

  35. 35

    RE: Green-Horn @ 23
    Talent?

    We have talent, believe me….much of its like laid off 50 year old RNs and “moon-lighting” teachers working a 2nd job at Applebees to survive our insane house prices….experienced/skilled professionals are being replaced with lesser skilled DIVERSITY. EEO has been defunded and trash canned by Obama….check it out.

  36. 36
    Dustin says:

    By David @ 32:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 31 – Light rail is a perk for the privileged 1% in Seattle who can afford to live close enough to the stations.

    While I think you’re exaggerating to assert yourself as a light rail contrarian, I think your argument that light rail is a “perk for the privileged 1%” does not reflect economic reality. Have you ever had a chance to use the light rail to get the airport, or maybe the Stadium district? It gets pretty crowded during peak hours and around sports events. The privileged 1% can afford to spend more than $3 to enjoy a more comfortable, private commute. They can even afford to lobby the local government and transit agencies to make decisions that benefit them specifically. Why would these most privileged people, who can afford anything, care more about living close to transit than living in the most desirable housing or neighborhoods? Living close to the light rail will be more of a middle class concern, and the people displaced by increased economic activity around light rail stations will be the lowest income earners who are most likely to depend on public transportation resources for mobility, and will benefit from a faster, more expansive system anyway. Over time, as the system reaches more people, and development near transit increases to meet demand, the premium required for living near transit can be reduced to accommodate people with lower incomes. Obviously, Seattle won’t build a transit network to rival the systems of New York, London or Hong Kong overnight, but incrementally we can make big improvements, and doing nothing will simply add to the city’s parking and congestion problems if Seattle continues to grow.

  37. 37
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: David @ 32

    Yeah, but no.

    Light rail was put into this city with first emphasis on the South End and Rainier Valley. Do you think the 1%-ers live down in Tukwila and Rainier Beach? Last I checked, the new line does not go anywhere near the Highlands or any of the waterfront/water view neighborhoods where the 1%ers live.

    Go down and look at the people who come to see a Mariners, Seahawks or Sounders game by light rail. You will not see Winthrop Throckmorton IV and his wife Buffy in there with the masses.

    This is just a right-wing talking point that even the smallest amount of analysis can easily demolish. C’mon have some self respect and do some actual thinking for yourself for a change.

    Light rail is good for me as a developer/builder who employs working people because it gets single vehicle drivers off the highway and frees up space for my plumbers and electricians and HVAC guys who are coming up from Burien or down from Arlington.

    Over time, you will get more and more station-area density and station-area development. People move to be near the stations so they can get to work without a car or the hassle of a grinding commute.

    We have plenty of population density to support a rail system. And if you check the net in-migration statistics, we have more and more population density every single month. You know that right?

    Sure the Japanese build rail more cheaply than we do. They are really good at it because they do a lot of it and their government has made it a priority. That is an argument for us to do more of it, not less.

  38. 38

    Open Border Progressives Rule Your High Cost Escrow Bills in Seattle

    And the innovative and creative folks [many without jobs] are crammed into this overpopulated mess; now the American/Foreign CEO Overlords want us to live with mortgage nooses cramping our retirements….all in the false name of illegal diversity wins over EEO skills/experience.

    We’ve lost all common sense. F ace Book and Amazon [as well as MSFT and Boeing] currently encourage intellectual property sharing with Asians, ask Google] and no one goes to prison over national security law breaking? Trump will change this class inequality and rich elite organized crime mess, whether Face Book or MSFT or Amazon pushes their anarchist open border policies or not.

    We want Real Manufacturing Engineering Work not Foreign Engineered No Work again. MAGA.

  39. 39
    Green-Horn says:

    RE: Boater @ 29

    Like I said, everybody dreams that the grass on the other side is greener.
    Most can appreciate the difficult job being a fulltime parent would be. However I do like to think that actually loving your “customers” & “bosses” (your own children) makes it more rewarding in some ways.

    Can’t imagine the worst bosses, colleagues or customers being nearly as bad as the ordinary ungrateful moody teenagers. What’s worse, there’s no quitting or firing your teenager for cause or insubordination…

    Scary!

  40. 40
    N says:

    I took the light rail from Sodo to DT during the middle of a week day and was surprised at how packed it was – standing room only. Even with the limited route from the airport throught he city’s core it’s clear its working. I agree with Deerhawke about missing the fast start of most heavy rail systems.

    The fact that you will be able to take the rail from Northgate to DT in 14 minutes in just a few years, and a few years later from Lynnwood to DT in less than 30 minutes is HUGE!!! (not to mention Bellevue). How is that commute from Lynnwood today? They really need to consider building bigger and more parking in these locations so people really can drive from their homes and park and take the train.

    1%? Seattle sure loves to complain about classes and the 1%, like no place I have ever been before. Lots of people deep in the south end drive to Angle Lake and take the train to games, work etc.

  41. 41
    uwp says:

    Link ridership basically doubled between 2015-2017, but I love the folks who are so anti-transit that they prefer to believe it’s failing.

    UW to downtown in less than 15 minutes, and Northgate to DT in only a few more years. The biggest problem with transit has been the idiots who voted it down 20 years ago. They are the reason why we have to wait until 2025-2040 for service to the outlying areas.

  42. 42
    N says:

    Maybe it really was foreign investors propping up the Vancouver housing market: Vancouver Detached Home Sales Register a 27 Year Low in March

    http://vancitycondoguide.com/vancouver-home-sales-27-year-low-march/

    The steep decline of Vancouver’s luxury property market appears to be suffering the effects of a global pullback of overseas capital. Luxury markets across the globe have cooled significantly following China’s capital controls. With Vancouver home buying peaking in 2016.

    Further, the BC Government hasn’t made lower prices any more enticing for offshore investors. Having fenced off much of the province following political backlash. Foreign buyers of luxury homes are now subject to a 20% foreign buyers tax, a 5% property transfer tax, and an annual 2% property speculation tax. A typical buyer of a $3M home will have to cough up $668,000 in taxes to Government officials upon closing.

    We may soon find out if local pockets are deep enough to fill the void.

    http://vancitycondoguide.com/detached-home-flipping-10-year-low/

  43. 43
    Green-Horn says:

    Can all of you here keep a secret?

    April is nice with Spring feeling finally arriving after the relentless dark grey wet months, but it also means paying income & property taxes…

    Check out these miserable places!
    Their winters are even almost all worse than Seattle’s…
    Also they have the privilege of paying State & Local income taxes too…

    But PLEASE….
    Please don’t tell the local bleedy heart voters, politicians and government administrators who are all convinced we don’t pay enough taxes yet. Such higher taxes will inevitably make their way here, but no reason to hasten their arrival.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-05/new-york-commuter-counties-top-list-for-highest-property-taxes

  44. 44
    Wile E. Millenial says:

    I used to live in Essex County… my property taxes were $21k/year to live on the wrong side of the tracks. Great place though. Can’t say I miss shoveling 3′ of snow off a 100′ driveway.

  45. 45
    Wile E. Millenial says:

    And no shortage of buyers for that -$21k/year asset when it came time to leave!

  46. 46
    ess says:

    By Green-Horn @ 43:

    Can all of you here keep a secret?

    April is nice with Spring feeling finally arriving after the relentless dark grey wet months, but it also means paying income & property taxes…

    Check out these miserable places!
    Their winters are even almost all worse than Seattle’s…
    Also they have the privilege of paying State & Local income taxes too…

    But PLEASE….
    Please don’t tell the local bleedy heart voters, politicians and government administrators who are all convinced we don’t pay enough taxes yet. Such higher taxes will inevitably make their way here, but no reason to hasten their arrival.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-05/new-york-commuter-counties-top-list-for-highest-property-taxes

    Green

    The article that you posted about high property taxes reveals important information that refutes the argument that a state income tax will lower property taxes.

    Although it varies by jurisdiction, the average Puget Sound property tax bill is approximately one thousand dollars for every hundred thousand dollars in value.

    All the listed states with the highest average property taxes are not only taxed at a much higher rate than one thousand dollars per every hundred thousand, but every jurisdiction listed also has a state income and sales tax.

    The proponents of a state income tax that insist that property taxes will be lowered if a state income tax is implement are avoiding political reality. That reality is that one tax doesn’t reduce another tax, it only gives politicians and special interest another avenue to extract even more money from the public.

  47. 47
    David says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 37 – Actually rail in Japan is privatized. And rail is still only useful to a very narrow segment of the population in Seattle. There is not anything close to enough density to fund rail development for that narrow class of people.

    This is why they are forcing everyone in the less advantaged areas to pay for it for the rest of their working lives. They seldom get to ride it but have to pay $1,000s for the privilege of being able to PAY again for each ride.

    Light rail is theft.

    But let’s all get excited because we saw a local celebrity riding the bus-like-train to the ballpark!!!

  48. 48
    N says:

    Well considering a quarter of a million people work in downtown Seattle and something like 80% take public transit it seems like transit affects a lot of people. And that’s before you add in Bellevue and Redmond (Microsoft campus) where the train will also go. That’s a lot of people for a metro of less than 4 million.

  49. 49
    Minnie says:

    It seems quite short-sighted to poo-poo Shoreline or Lynnwood when they will have lightrail years before many close-in Seattle neighborhoods. Sure, they may not have sushi joints or Whole Foods or hipster pubs (yet).

    I’ve noticed that the bars/restaurants/shops get torn down to build an apartment building and the bottom “mixed use” part sits empty! Seems its a pattern. One would think that there would be more shops and restaurants as a result of multifamily or apartments going in, but there’s less. And then the real kicker is that without fail, a lot is being developed and boom its a public storage facility. And the whole time you thought it would be something cool or fun.

    Where did all the fun go?

    Seattle is full of apartments and public storage facilities. And CVS/Walgreens.

  50. 50
    Blake says:

    By David @ 32:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 31 – Light rail is a perk for the privileged 1% in Seattle who can afford to live close enough to the stations.

    Hah ha… Like all those 1% -ers who live along Martin Luther King blvd!
    You are reliably wrong David.

    I used to live in Columbia City and still go there often from downtown to visit my sister and her family. I can say that MOST of the people on the train are not rich and many are very poor. How much do you think it takes to own and maintain a car each year? MANY people can’t afford a car and rely upon public transportation. Yeah… the 1%! pin head…

    Plus EVERY train I took the last few months was packed solid with about 800 people in 4 cars . And the trains run reliably every 15 minutes. I tried to imagine another 3,000 autos on the roads each hour… pissing off all the right-wingers who just complain complain complain! What’s your solution to Seattle commuter mess?

    Sometimes I imagine what this area would be like if they had built rail lines around Lake Washington and connecting all the communities with spurs. Think about that. Oh well…

  51. 51
    Suburban Working Mom says:

    RE: Minnie @ 49

    Established in 2012…
    https://www.wholefoodsmarket.com/stores/lynnwood

    Plenty of sushi joints and “hipster” pubs too.

  52. 52
    David says:

    RE: Blake @ 50 – I believe it has been reliably proven that light rail will serve no more than 1% of the metro population.

  53. 53
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: David @ 52

    I believe it has been reliably proven that right wing people are susceptible to simple arguments that are wrong.

  54. 54
    Deerhawke says:

    The Seattle Times has its piece out based on the latest NWMLS stats released yesterday.

    There was a definite spring price spike. For those who hoped that we would see some moderation in price increases this spring, well… maybe another year.

    King County’s median jumped from $649,950 last month to $689,950 this month.

    Seattle’s median jumped from $777k last month to $820K this month.

    https://www.seattletimes.com/business/real-estate/home-prices-have-risen-fastest-in-south-seattle-as-citywide-median-nears-820000/

  55. 55

    By Deerhawke @ 53:

    RE: David @ 52

    I believe it has been reliably proven that right wing people are susceptible to simple arguments that are wrong.

    Unfortunately that’s not just something that affects the right.

  56. 56

    RE: Deerhawke @ 54 – I’m not sure why anyone would expect a moderation in price. If the median had dropped significantly it would have almost certainly been due to a change in mix. Things are crazy out there right now from what I’ve seen. Erik’s net worth on paper has probably increased dramatically in the last 12 months because condos have increased significantly.

  57. 57

    Here’s a summary of the stats. (King County SFR)

    New listings up for month and year, but active listings down slightly.

    YOY pending sales up slightly, closed sales down slightly–yet another month where low inventory is impacted sales.

    Mean and median up significantly YOY, despite many of the higher price areas being down in volume YOY.

    There are now five NWMLS areas with a median over $1M, compared to three last year. 11 areas have an active median over $1M and one is over $4M.

    Numbers from NWMLS sources, but not guaranteed.

  58. 58
    ess says:

    By Suburban Working Mom @ 51:

    RE: Minnie @ 49

    Established in 2012…
    https://www.wholefoodsmarket.com/stores/lynnwood

    Plenty of sushi joints and “hipster” pubs too.

    Not only is there a lot going on in the northend/ south Snohomish County area, but people still have some money left over after paying their mortgages/rents. Furthermore, there is something that is increasingly disappearing in Seattle – it is called a “parking spot”.

  59. 59

    RE: softwarengineer @ 19
    Long-term CDs Up to 3%

    Haven’t seen safe savings interest this high in about 10-15 years. Mortgage rates climbing up too.

  60. 60

    RE: Deerhawke @ 53
    I Beg to Differ

    Its why Hillary lost the election….the open border Progressives won’t negotiate or listen to any opinion but their blessed NWO ….they’re DNA makes ’em pig-headed? LOL

    Ancient Aliens should do a show on how Progressive DNA has been altered and is different than normal….LOL

  61. 61
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 55

    Totally true, look at the Seattle City Council. But the few wackos in power on the left feel that they at least need to try to make a rational argument based on facts. They may draw the totally wrong conclusions but at least they respond to facts.

    The right just keeps repeating the same lying talking points with perfect equanimity and counts on their increasing purchase of the airwaves to spread their propaganda. Pretty soon all of the Sinclair radio and TV stations in the county will be repeating purified BS about light rail only serving the 1% and people with weak minds will believe it.

    “Light rail only serves the 1%” is kind of like “These are not the droids you are looking for.” Works really well with mental sheep.

  62. 62
    Deerhawke says:

    Most recent NWMLS press release.

    http://www.northwestmls.com/index.cfm?/News–Information/page/Latest-Press-Release

    The title is “Housing Market Back to “Pressure Cooker Situation” But Brokers Remind Sellers “Pricing Is Still Important”

    Kind of reminds me of the 1980’s Coffee Achievers commercial ” Coffee lets you calm yourself down, and it picks you up!”

  63. 63

    I’ll Be Honest Kansas City Has Homelessness/Starvation Like Seattle Too

    Only its college students is whom I’m talking about….then they need a job to pay off their loans….if they can find any employment in any job BTW. The degree is a curse too, you become over qualified to hire.

    http://www.kansascity.com/news/local/article207845959.html

  64. 64

    RE: Deerhawke @ 61
    Yes Deerhawke

    I’m gulping my strong Yuban down now….ahhhhh…..the caffeine drug is kicking in now….LOL

    Sometimes, after a good cup, describing the economy as a huge tangled ball of mess hits the nail on the head. I call it wake-up juice.

  65. 65

    King County Rich Elite NWO Wolves Lick Their Greedy Chops

    As they collect massive property taxes from Robin Hoods’ poor Populists.

    https://www.yahoo.com/finance/m/84451b94-313f-3fe4-b37b-7fb44e3f6540/ss_in-illinois%2C-my-social.html

  66. 66

    RE: Deerhawke @ 61 – In this market the risk of pricing low is relatively low, because bids will come in above list if you allow time to review offers. The problem is you can price too low. Buyers may tend to bid only a certain amount over list price. Conversely, a slightly low list price will likely lead to more offers than a more accurate list price, and it will also likely lead to higher offers. But even if not higher offers, having multiple offers is really nice if you’re a seller or listing agent. Being able to pick a quality buyer, buyer’s agent and buyer’s lender is really nice, and much better than just taking whatever offer comes in and then hoping it closes.

  67. 67

    RE: David @ 52
    Yes David

    I think we have complete psychotic train nuts on the local Seattle political councils who love train collections and play engineer make-believe in their garages….they love to waste property tax dollars.

  68. 68

    For public transportation, it’s either trains or busses. As a driver I much prefer trains as opposed to even more busses. That said, the idea of putting light rail at ground level through the Rainier Valley without crossing gates was really not the best thinking.

    And I agree with the comment above that if more had been done earlier we’d have a better system today. Seattle has a history of studying traffic solutions and doing nothing after the study is complete.

  69. 69
    ess says:

    By softwarengineer @ 58:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 19
    Long-term CDs Up to 3%

    Haven’t seen safe savings interest this high in about 10-15 years. Mortgage rates climbing up too.

    Yes – a major sea change for investors and savers.

    Money markets – which have paid nothing for years are hovering at 1.5 -1.7 percent. As a matter of interest – one money market fund returned more in the past 3 months than the average over the last ten years. That is a major change.

    Short term bond funds (duration 2.5 -3 years) are paying between 2.5 and 3% depending on the type and risk of the bonds. The return should increase over the next year as interest rates continue to climb

    This may have a major impact on longer term mom and pop rental investors.

    How so? As cities place more and more onerous restrictions on rental properties, longer term investors may be encouraged to sell, take their profits and just invest in a bond ladder or bond fund if they can get roughly the same return on investment. Yes, there may not be the tax benefits, and the bond fund may be subject to inflation risks that real estate generally absorbs over time, but the reward is a steady return without having to deal with the aggravation of being a landlord. Indeed – even less return and tax benefits are offset by the annoyance of both bad tenants and local real estate ordinances for many mom and pop investors.

    Long term results of higher interest rates vs owning rental property are unclear at this time. But be assured – more than one long term mom and pop landlord in Seattle is viewing both increased interest rates on investments, as well as an increasingly hostile city council and rethinking their investment strategies. The hedge funds and companies that investing in single family real estate will also reassess both their investing strategies, and this too will be interesting to observe in the future.

  70. 70
    Blake says:

    By softwarengineer @ 67:

    RE: David @ 52
    Yes David

    I think we have complete psychotic train nuts on the local Seattle political councils who love train collections and play engineer make-believe in their garages….they love to waste property tax dollars.

    Thank you for once again discrediting yourself. Deerhawke, myself and others provide facts and evidence that light rail is succeeding to capacity and pulling thousands of cars off the roads every hour, but you describe us as “psychotic train nuts” who “love” trains. Look in the mirror buddy… you are impervious to facts and evidence because YOU simply hate trains and mass transit. After arguing with you for years on this forum about many subjects I have a hard time believing that you ever obtained an engineering degree or any science-based degree. But you do well represent the 25-30% of Americans who are die hard Trumpists: mindless followers who repeat words that Fearless Leader tells you… and the guy is a pathological liar!!

    Bubbleheads… sorry to burden the blog with this stuff, but it does bring up an important point that does relate to the economy, the housing market and the future of this country. It is this: our political system and our government is increasingly run by and caters to people who are not in touch with reality! They truly live in a separate bubble and are impervious to facts and logic. I watched a half hour round table debate on one of the business channels this morning and these fund managers, CEOs and brokers spent most of the time discussing the risk posed by Trump and the fact that he increasingly doesn’t have good people advising him – – and doesn’t listen to them anyways! Trump is doing a lot of damage to the economy and I think it’ll get worse. The Republicans are afraid to confront him because a majority of their rank and file are Trumpists like SWE and David. The Republican leadership may eventually move against Trump, but it will only be after things get much worse… how much worse? Who knows…

  71. 71
    uwp says:

    RE: Blake @ 70 – Despite being the MacGuffin in their favorite book, Conservatives really hate trains.

  72. 72
    Rick says:

    By Boater @ 29:

    By Green-Horn @ 25:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 17 – RE: softwarengineer @ 17 –

    I have to envy the housewives.

    Would rather stay home changing diapers or planning cub scouts activities or PTA stuff than deal with daily commute, unpleasant colleagues & other joys of the rat-race.

    The biggest scam of the century was when feminists brainwashed women to trade motherhood & tranquil home-life for the rat-race.

    It never stops!
    https://www.bustle.com/p/young-women-are-convinced-motherhood-is-going-to-suck-theyre-right-8522780

    It’s human nature to envy privileges & powers without appreciating the responsibilities & unpleasantness that go with them.

    Everybody’s grass is greener.

    Regarding Motherhood, I’m convinced a major cohort of the coming generations are simply going to age out of their fertile years without getting around to family because life has so many other things to offer for them.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2015/04/27/baby-bust-millenials-birth-rate-drop-may-signal-historic-shift.html

    https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-09-20/the-consequences-of-the-u-s-baby-bust

    It also looks like they’re finally getting the message that a fish doesn’t need a bicycle and a bicycle certainly has little use for the fish.

    https://www.citylab.com/life/2014/09/not-married-the-odds-that-you-never-will-be-are-higher-than-ever/380686/

    http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2014/09/24/record-share-of-americans-have-never-married/

    Follow the trends, and we may be grateful that more young ones aren’t interested in family formation because we haven’t gotten around to building the additional housing necessary for forming and raising families.

    Having worked as a mid level manager in tech for a while and being a full time stay at home parent I can assure you that you have the order of which is more relaxing wrong. There is nothing peaceful about children all day. They are your worst employee ever and the only reason you don’t kill them is you love them.

    A daily two hour round trip commute sounds like a little slice of heaven vs all day with preschoolers. Do it for a month and you will run back to work.

    RE: Boater @ 29 –

  73. 73
    Rick says:

    Yes, grass is always greener. But I don’t recall missing work while I was sitting on Alki beach watching my son and his friends play in the sand while chatting with their nice looking moms Nor while spending time at his school meeting his friends and teachers. Nor while practicing my drums or messing with other hobbies during his school hours. Sure it wasn’t always relaxing but run back to work? No way.

  74. 74
    pfft says:

    By David @ 32:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 31 – Light rail is a perk for the privileged 1% in Seattle who can afford to live close enough to the stations. The other 99% of the people who are having to pay to move themselves have no benefit from it – and will be paying to move other people the rest of their working lives and beyond.

    I’m intimately familiar with Japan – they have a population density vastly greater than Seattle and can apparently build much less expensively than US rail contractors.

    god, what non-sense. And people complain about me?

  75. 75
    pfft says:

    By Blake @ 70:

    By softwarengineer @ 67:

    RE: David @ 52
    Yes David

    I think we have complete psychotic train nuts on the local Seattle political councils who love train collections and play engineer make-believe in their garages….they love to waste property tax dollars.

    Thank you for once again discrediting yourself. Deerhawke, myself and others provide facts and evidence that light rail is succeeding to capacity and pulling thousands of cars off the roads every hour, but you describe us as “psychotic train nuts” who “love” trains. Look in the mirror buddy… you are impervious to facts and evidence because YOU simply hate trains and mass transit. After arguing with you for years on this forum about many subjects I have a hard time believing that you ever obtained an engineering degree or any science-based degree. But you do well represent the 25-30% of Americans who are die hard Trumpists: mindless followers who repeat words that Fearless Leader tells you… and the guy is a pathological liar!!

    Bubbleheads… sorry to burden the blog with this stuff, but it does bring up an important point that does relate to the economy, the housing market and the future of this country. It is this: our political system and our government is increasingly run by and caters to people who are not in touch with reality! They truly live in a separate bubble and are impervious to facts and logic. I watched a half hour round table debate on one of the business channels this morning and these fund managers, CEOs and brokers spent most of the time discussing the risk posed by Trump and the fact that he increasingly doesn’t have good people advising him – – and doesn’t listen to them anyways! Trump is doing a lot of damage to the economy and I think it’ll get worse. The Republicans are afraid to confront him because a majority of their rank and file are Trumpists like SWE and David. The Republican leadership may eventually move against Trump, but it will only be after things get much worse… how much worse? Who knows…

    conservatives hate trains and almost any sort of mass transit. They seem to also hate being able to walk or bike anywhere. If a pedestrian or biker gets hit it’s almost ALWAYS labeled as their fault.

  76. 76
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 37 – “Light rail is good for me as a developer/builder who employs working people because it gets single vehicle drivers off the highway and frees up space for my plumbers and electricians and HVAC guys who are coming up from Burien or down from Arlington.”

    I don’t know what your contractors do. My plumbers and electricians all drive their trucks/vans with tools to work.

    Light rail usage is horrible based on cost/analysis. I believe it had been proven the usage does not justify the cost. Building light rail for games on weekend/game night is an overkill. I bet it currently costs taxpayers more per ride on light rail than Uber based on usage. Even our new Mayor is having doubt on street cars. Of course those street cars have the same great purpose as light rails…

  77. 77
    pfft says:

    By Eastsider @ 76:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 37
    Light rail usage is horrible based on cost/analysis. I believe it had been proven the usage does not justify the cost. Building light rail for games on weekend/game night is an overkill. I bet it currently costs taxpayers more per ride on light rail than Uber based on usage.

    Here’s the deal. Instead of saying that you believe/bet/think and why don’t you just find out there answer before having an opinion. Instead of believing why not know? Go to google and find out!

    If we were having a baseball discussion it wouldn’t be tolerable to say I believe it’s been proven that you should put your worst hitter in the lead off spot. Of course we’d have to define what metrics we’d use to determine who the worst hitter is.

  78. 78
    Eastsider says:

    RE: pfft @ 77 – Why don’t you provide links to disprove me? There is certainly cost per ride data out there.

  79. 79

    RE: Eastsider @ 78 – I’m not sure what cost per mile would tell you in isolation. You’d also need to know the cost of the alternatives, and that would vary by location. Getting more cars into Seattle would be very expensive relative to Tacoma. They are able to widen I-5 in Tacoma, but doing so in Seattle would be cost prohibitive, and most likely require yet another tunnel machine even bigger than Bertha.

    So what you really need to do is compare the cost of rail to the cost of expanding roads, and the results would vary by locale. I don’t think anyone would argue in favor of building a light rail system over in Bremerton.

  80. 80
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 79 – The biggest issue with light rail is that it is not the right commute solution for Seattle. Taking twice as long to travel from SeaTac to Seattle via light rail is a huge waste of time and money. Local businesses e.g,. Microsoft provide much better and cheaper transportation solutions for their employees. Seattle on the other hand came up with bikes (failure), street cars (failure), monorail (failure), bike lanes (failure) and of course light rail (epic fail).

  81. 81

    RE: Eastsider @ 80 – It’s a more consistent time or even faster during rush hour, except when you factor in the item I mentioned. With it being at ground level with no crossing bars through the Rainier Valley the chance of a car accident is greatly enhanced, and I think that might even keep its speed down a bit.

  82. 82
    pfft says:

    By Eastsider @ 78:

    RE: pfft @ 77 – Why don’t you provide links to disprove me? There is certainly cost per ride data out there.

    Do your own homework! How do you know something is true if you have no data or links? Read it on Facebook?

  83. 83
    Blake says:

    By pfft @ 82:

    By Eastsider @ 78:

    RE: pfft @ 77 – Why don’t you provide links to disprove me? There is certainly cost per ride data out there.

    Do your own homework! How do you know something is true if you have no data or links? Read it on Facebook?

    But pfft… the Presidential spokesperson just said today: “The President still FEELS there was a large amount of voter fraud.”

    So if Eastsider FEELS that light rail and other mass transit options are a waste of money who are we to argue with his feelings?

    Hey, this is the 21st century and there are lots of oppressed, sensitive Trump supporters out there, so we have to be careful to not hurt their feelings…

  84. 84
    pfft says:

    By Blake @ 83:

    By pfft @ 82:

    By Eastsider @ 78:

    RE: pfft @ 77 – Why don’t you provide links to disprove me? There is certainly cost per ride data out there.

    Do your own homework! How do you know something is true if you have no data or links? Read it on Facebook?

    But pfft… the Presidential spokesperson just said today: “The President still FEELS there was a large amount of voter fraud.”

    So if Eastsider FEELS that light rail and other mass transit options are a waste of money who are we to argue with his feelings?

    Hey, this is the 21st century and there are lots of oppressed, sensitive Trump supporters out there, so we have to be careful to not hurt their feelings…

    I read that the president dismissed his aides when they told him he was wrong about Amazon…he just didn’t feel what he told them was true.

    In sports this is like the analytics guys vs the trouble with the curve guys. What I didn’t get was wouldn’t analytics tell you a hitter couldn’t hit a curve?

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