NWMLS: New listings hit highest point since 2007 as inventory finally grows

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May market stats have been published by the NWMLS, but their press release isn’t out yet, so let’s just dive into the numbers.

CAUTION

NWMLS monthly reports include an undisclosed and varying number of
sales from previous months in their pending and closed sales statistics.

Here’s your King County SFH summary, with the arrows to show whether the year-over-year direction of each indicator is favorable or unfavorable news for buyers and sellers (green = favorable, red = unfavorable):

May 2018 Number MOM YOY Buyers Sellers
Active Listings 2,912 +37.5% +35.5%
Closed Sales 2,474 +16.6% -4.0%
SAAS (?) 1.59 +16.2% +21.7%
Pending Sales 3,312 +24.1% -4.1%
Months of Supply 1.18 +17.9% +41.1%
Median Price* $726,275 +0.2% +14.9%

The big news in this month’s numbers is the big bump in both new listings and total on-market inventory. The last time we had more than 4,000 new single-family listings in a single month in King County was July 2007.

If that month sounds familiar it may be because that was also coincidentially (?) the month that home prices peaked in the Seattle area during the previous housing bubble. Hmm…

In my opinion it is still too early to call an inflection point yet, but this surge in listings definitely has my attention.

Here’s the graph of inventory with each year overlaid on the same chart.

King County SFH Inventory

Inventory rose thirty-seven percent from April to May, and was up thirty-six percent from last year. That’s a non-trivial increase.

Here’s the chart of new listings:

King County SFH New Listings

New listings were up seventeen percent from a year ago, and hit their highest level in over a decade.

Here’s your closed sales yearly comparison chart:

King County SFH Closed Sales

Closed sales rose seventeen percent between April and May. Last year over the same period closed sales were up twenty-seven percent. Year-over-year closed sales were down four percent.

King County SFH Pending Sales

Pending sales were up twenty-four percent from April to May, and were also down four percent year-over-year.

Here’s the supply/demand YOY graph. “Demand” in this chart is represented by closed sales, which have had a consistent definition throughout the decade (unlike pending sales from NWMLS).

King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY

That is a huge spike up into the black for the inventory/supply line. For buyers’ sake, I hope the trend continues and isn’t just a one-month flash.

Here’s the median home price YOY change graph:

King County SFH YOY Price Change

Year-over-year home price movement continues to hover in the fifteen percent range.

And lastly, here is the chart comparing King County SFH prices each month for every year back to 1994 (not adjusted for inflation).

King County SFH Prices

Another new all-time high, just barely.

May 2018: $726,275
July 2007: $481,000 (previous cycle high)

The Seattle Times hasn’t posted a story yet, when they do I’ll likely update this post.

Update: Here’s the story from the Times: Seattle-area home prices reach record highs, but increasing inventory offers a ray of hope


About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

134 comments:

  1. 1
    SDE2 says:

    The increase in listing/inventory, we are still at historical low. Prices will continue the up trend, IMHO.

  2. 2
    SDE says:

    This indeed is an inflection point (or at least the start of one). I’ll start some shameless prediction: home price will be mostly flat from now throughout the first half of 2019, then it will start a decline trend, bottoms out around 2022, at which time another round of credit loosening will pick up the price again. At the bottom, we will see an average of 15% – 25% price drop from now.

  3. 3
    pfft says:

    The crazy thing about this bubble is that prices are high but there are no other real obvious signs that the market is crazy. There are no endless stories about ninja loans or people buying 3 condos at a time or flippers being way out of their league.

    my favorite bubble story is the “bubble bench” or the guy in arizona who owned 15 homes and didn’t know where they all were.

  4. 4
    GoHawks! says:

    During the previous cycle, how many consecutive months did inventory grow until the market rolled over (them plummeted). This is month one of increasing inventory, but does it take 12-18 months of increasing inventory to start to impact prices.

  5. 5
    SDE2 says:

    Inventory is only one side of the equation, the other side is the demand. Even if the inventory increases, there is a good chance of increasing demand, given the mortgage/prime rate will almost for sure go higher this year.

    The last cycle in 2008 was different largely due to the subprime loans; this time, you asked? I don’t think it’s going to have the same dramatic patterns. Housing market is different than stocks, stocks could crash overnight, but houses never will unless the entire region/nation is nuked.

  6. 6
    pfft says:

    Last time when the YOY sales numbers went negative that was the canary in the coal mine. I think that was in 2006.

    Then small and midsized mortgage lenders, some listed on the stock exchanges, started to go under. Then there was the summer of 2007 when the WSJ did articles about how traders and bankers had to skip their vacation and stay or go back to the office. There was still a long ways to go.

  7. 7
    Dave says:

    @The Tim Do you believe the Times’ assessment that the increased inventory might be due to SFH landlords finally deciding to cash out now that rents have leveled off and vacancy is rising?

  8. 8
    Brian says:

    By SDE2 @ 5:

    Inventory is only one side of the equation, the other side is the demand. Even if the inventory increases, there is a good chance of increasing demand, given the mortgage/prime rate will almost for sure go higher this year.

    At some point demand is affected when BOTH mortgage rates and home prices are skyrocketing. Less and less people can afford and justify the monthly payment of that new home.

  9. 9
    ARDELL DellaLoggia says:

    RE: GoHawks! @ 4

    6 mos to Start. 14 additional months to level out. Then 3 years from there to the beginning of the new upswing. From recollection. On my way to a house to do a key exchange. Not at a computer. But that’s fairly accurate if you’re not splitting hairs.

  10. 10
    Erik says:

    RE: Dave @ 7
    Could be. That’s what makes it fun is you never know.

  11. 11
    GoHawks! says:

    RE: ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 9 – So in other words, almost 2 years until it impacted prices?

  12. 12
    ARDELL DellaLoggia says:

    RE: GoHawks! @ 11

    No. Six months of inventory building up, then prices straight down and down and down again for 14 months then leveled out a bit and bounced around the bottom for 3 years and then straight up for 7. Upswing is supposed to last 5 to 8 years. This is Year 7 and why I’ve been increasingly bearish since the end of 2016.

  13. 13
    Eastsider says:

    RE: ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 12 – Everything happens a lot faster nowadays. When the downturn arrives, everyone will be heading for the exit at the same time. Current homeownership rate is near 24-year low despite recent ‘hot’ housing market. That implies high corporate/landlord ownership. They will be the first to bail at first signs of trouble.

  14. 14
    BubbleBee says:

    Fantastic! Renewing my apartment for another 12 months…

  15. 15
    Erik says:

    RE: ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 12
    If the bottom was 2012, I believe we’d be on year 6.
    2018-2012 = 6

  16. 16
    ARDELL DellaLoggia says:

    RE: Erik @ 15

    First year of the upswing was 2012 and included 2012. Previous upswing was 1998 to 2005 and Seattle’s was elongated until the credit crisis mid 2007 due to increased hiring after 2005 compared to many other markets Nationally.

  17. 17
  18. 18
    pedaltothemetal says:

    2019 is setting up to be a dangerous year, as the fiscal stimulus rolls off while the impact of the Fed’s tightening will be peaking – Bridgewater letter to clients.

    Seattle is a boom and bust town. There is something bipolar about this place. One day we want a monorail, the next day we don’t.

    One day buyers have FOMO about getting into a POS house in Seattle, the next day they say hey “please save me from that POS house”.

    Things will get fun as the baby boomers (most without enough savings) are forced to cash out. These folks will also being drawing from roth and 401k.
    So we’re looking at forced selling in equities, bonds and housing.
    Things will get fun.

    But please, go buy that house right now! Now is a great time to buy! Can’t think of a better ball and chain than massive debt with no way to pay off other than continued stroking of the bezos micro d.

  19. 19
    Eastsider says:

    Another RE investor… LOL

    Oprah Buys $8 Million Investment Property in Washington State
    https://www.mansionglobal.com/articles/oprah-buys-8-million-investment-property-in-washington-state-99174

  20. 20
    SDE2 says:

    RE: ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 12

    If the housing market is so easily predictable, everyone would be able to make money with almost no risks. That actually would turn housing market into an ATM machine.

    We can only tell the story from a hindsight, but I don’t think that will apply to the next crash. I think today’s market is somewhat similar to the 1970s when house inventory was also low and the Feds kept printing millions of millions of dollars. Today is even worse with low inventory, more people (people make babies over the years and immigrants influx), and Feds print $4 billion dollars a day. That will drive up/inflate the house price even more. I think the house price will continue to go up until 2027 or at least 2021.

  21. 21
    ARDELL DellaLoggia says:

    RE: SDE2 @ 20

    A “market” has an expectation. That expectation is an upswing lasts 5 to 8 years. Then it either outperforms expectation, meets expectation or underperforms expectation.

    Return to normalcy will be a market that peaks as to price in June to August. When it dips in fall it is a sign that the robust upswing is over.

    These are always the expectation. Not a prediction.

  22. 22
    pfft says:

    By pedaltothemetal @ 18:

    2019 is setting up to be a dangerous year, as the fiscal stimulus rolls off while the impact of the Fed’s tightening will be peaking – Bridgewater letter to clients.

    look I know that bridgewater is the hedge fund of hedge funds but the economy is relatively ok considering who is in office but the Fed isn’t tightening to put us into a recession. there is moderate growth and the unemployment numbers are good.

  23. 23
    SDE says:

    By pedaltothemetal @ 18:

    2019 is setting up to be a dangerous year, as the fiscal stimulus rolls off while the impact of the Fed’s tightening will be peaking – Bridgewater letter to clients.

    Seattle is a boom and bust town. There is something bipolar about this place. One day we want a monorail, the next day we don’t.

    One day buyers have FOMO about getting into a POS house in Seattle, the next day they say hey “please save me from that POS house”.

    Things will get fun as the baby boomers (most without enough savings) are forced to cash out. These folks will also being drawing from roth and 401k.
    So we’re looking at forced selling in equities, bonds and housing.
    Things will get fun.

    But please, go buy that house right now! Now is a great time to buy! Can’t think of a better ball and chain than massive debt with no way to pay off other than continued stroking of the bezos micro d.

    LOL

  24. 24
    pfft says:

    By ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 21:

    RE: SDE2 @ 20

    A “market” has an expectation. That expectation is an upswing lasts 5 to 8 years. Then it either outperforms expectation, meets expectation or underperforms expectation.

    Return to normalcy will be a market that peaks as to price in June to August. When it dips in fall it is a sign that the robust upswing is over.

    These are always the expectation. Not a prediction.

    last time a big part of the market thought home prices would go up forever. there was actually a poll where a large amounts of respondents said that.

  25. 25
    LKER says:

    By Eastsider @ 19:

    Another RE investor… LOL

    Oprah Buys $8 Million Investment Property in Washington State
    https://www.mansionglobal.com/articles/oprah-buys-8-million-investment-property-in-washington-state-99174

    LOL – do you think Oprah would care a bit if her $8M goes to $0?

  26. 26
    Matt P says:

    By SDE2 @ 20:

    RE: ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 12

    If the housing market is so easily predictable, everyone would be able to make money with almost no risks. That actually would turn housing market into an ATM machine.

    We can only tell the story from a hindsight, but I don’t think that will apply to the next crash. I think today’s market is somewhat similar to the 1970s when house inventory was also low and the Feds kept printing millions of millions of dollars. Today is even worse with low inventory, more people (people make babies over the years and immigrants influx), and Feds print $4 billion dollars a day. That will drive up/inflate the house price even more. I think the house price will continue to go up until 2027 or at least 2021.

    RE: SDE2 @ 20

    The fed stopped printing money a couple years and over half a year ago started actually unwinding all of the QE by letting money disappear – literally- by not buying more MBS and Treasuries to replace those that matured or rolled off. This means less liquidity and rising rates. Keep believing that it isn’t happening, but that doesn’t change the fact that it is.

  27. 27
    pedaltothemetal says:

    Leaning Against Housing Prices as Robustly Optimal Monetary Policy
    http://www.nber.org/papers/w24629

    Quest for Affordable Housing Drives People Away From the Coasts
    http://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/blogs/stateline/2018/05/24/quest-for-affordable-housing-drives-people-away-from-the-coasts

  28. 28
    pedaltothemetal says:

    Come to Seattle.

    You can be a mediocre programmer working for the best new Walmart of our time… Amazon!!
    If you do really well, you can enter up to 3 of jeff bezos balls!
    They don’t have a warning sign on the balls, but if ovulating, do consider the consequences.

    Amazon is such a cool company! They’ve really revolutionized the whole dumping shit made somewhere else thing. If you ever feel a little sad about your work, just rub one of those bezos balls. See how they shine!

    If you still feel sad, there are always lots of homeless encampments around the town. Those will cheer you up!

    Just remember, what the world needs now is just more cheep shit made somewhere else. This is your higher calling. More Walmart than Walmart. Yes!! Go Seattle!

  29. 29

    Seriously? The discussion is what happened to these figures “last time?” Our market did not peak “last time” due to our market. Our market peaked due to national/international economic events.

    And in any case, things seldom happen the same way twice. So even if our market had peaked due to the factors of our market, that doesn’t mean that the events would play out the same way again.

  30. 30

    By ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 21:

    RE: SDE2 @ 20

    A “market” has an expectation. That expectation is an upswing lasts 5 to 8 years. Then it either outperforms expectation, meets expectation or underperforms expectation.

    Return to normalcy will be a market that peaks as to price in June to August. When it dips in fall it is a sign that the robust upswing is over.

    These are always the expectation. Not a prediction.

    Seattle went 20 years without a YOY, end of year price decline.

    But at least now we know where Erik got his market cycle idea!

  31. 31
    Rupert D says:

    I see a lot of commentators giving their opinions that Seattle will see a large drop in housing prices sometime in the near future (2-4 years). I don’t think that is very likely. Using The Tims data, housing prices increased from May 1996 (~$170,000) to May 2007 (~$470,000) for an increase of $256,275 or a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.7%. Year 2008 began the several year decline in housing prices from the great recession. Using the then high point of May 2007 (~$470,000) to May 2018 ($726,275) results in a median housing gain of $256,275 or a CAGR of 4.0%. So despite all the hysteria about how high home prices have increased in the last 3 years, since the prior high in 2007 and then the recession years that followed, prices have not increased as much as they did from 1996-2007. 1996 is used since that is The Tims beginning point of available data. Also if you do the same analysis from May 1996 to May 2018 the housing price increase is a CAGR of 6.8%. For comparison purposes I found median SFR price data on the internet for Southern California for LA and San Diego counties which showed a 1996-2018 CAGR price increase of 6.3% and 5.9%, respectively, which compares to Seattles 6.8%. What many commentators are expecting is a major correction in Seattle home prices, maybe similar to the decrease that began in 2008. But that decrease was the result of a national real estate recession which is very rare with the only recent occurrence occurring in the Great Depression (beginning in 1929). Aside from the great recession of 2008-2012, The Tims own charts show only two minor monthly housing price decreases occurring in 1995. Historically most real estate recession do not occur on a national basis and instead are local like Boston and Texas in past years. It is unlikely that Seattle will see a large drop in real estate prices unless some local economic event occurs. Say Amazon opens up its second headquarters and decides to move half (or all) of its Seattle staff there. Then you are likely to see a significant downturn in Seattle home prices. Certainly affordability is becoming an issue and when housing demand declines and/or inventory eventually rises enough, home price appreciation will slow. But again absent some major event I doubt we will see a large sudden decrease in Seattle home prices to occur for no reason. I remember new stories from when I lived in southern California in the 1990s about Seattlites complaining about all the Californians retiring, selling their highly appreciated homes, moving to Seattle and driving up home prices. A desirable place to live is going to result in ever increasing home prices – LA, San Diego, San Fran and Seattle.

  32. 32
    Suburban Mom says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 29 – The one theory that seems to make a lot of sense is the “The Great 18-Year Real Estate Cycle”. This article explains it pretty well.

    http://printarchive.epochtimes.com/a1/en/us/orc/2016/04/01/A16.pdf

  33. 33
    Deerhawke says:

    These next few months will certainly be interesting.

    Will small landlords who have been reluctant to sell decide that now is the time to quickly dump those high-maintenance single-family units since rents and prices are flat?

    Will retirees decide that now is finally the time to put that old place on the market so they can bake in the sun in Scottsdale since prices are not rising by the month?

    Will builders decide to build less given rising interest rates and building costs set against flattening prices?

    Will potential buyers decide that they will continue renting since rents are flat and stable, prices are no bargain and interest rates are rising?

    Or will all of the above decide to put off a decision until later in the year to see just how things shake out?

  34. 34
    Deerhawke says:

    My guess is that there will be different answers to the questions in the previous post depending on proximity to employment centers. The central neighborhoods in Seattle will see less change than Shoreline or Rainier Valley. The hottest zip codes on the East Side will remain quite hot, but the areas where people were just thinking that this was the new, new thing will suddenly feel a bit cooler. It is really about the difference between the core and the periphery.

    People in this market will be responding to economics (rising interest rates) and political signaling (Amazon hiring, the head tax debate, etc.)

    In the short term, we may find that because of political instability in Europe and debate about whether Italy might leave the Euro zone that US interest rates will flatten out or even fall a bit.

    Meanwhile, it seems that Amazon is still hiring in Seattle at a torrid pace. Good piece in the Seattle Times this past week.
    https://www.seattletimes.com/business/amazon/amazon-may-threaten-to-ditch-seattle-but-it-wouldnt-be-easy-to-leave/

    It looks like the head tax will repeal initiative will get on the fall ballot and if it does, the head tax probably will be repealed. The next day Amazon will announce that it will fill the Rainier Square tower after all and that will be an important signal to the real estate market.

    All the people I know in the tech sector here talk about how fast they are hiring. My guess is that MS, Google, Facebook, F5, Tableau, and all the biotech/medical companies in the area will continue on the same path they have been on for the past few years.

    In other words, I think the fundamentals of this local market have not changed quite as much as it seems.

    Short of big national/international problems that effect the regional market (like in 2008) I think we will see a flattening of the price growth curve. But I definitely don’t see thing dropping off a cliff and staying down 3-4 years.

    So Ardell, I will take the other side of your bet.

  35. 35

    By Deerhawke @ 33:

    Will builders decide to build less given rising interest rates and building costs set against flattening prices?

    I’m not sure what flattening prices you’re seeing, but this one is probably the least likely given the lead time on building houses. There’s a lot of inventory in progress right now, and while 2008 proved they can stop without building out all the lots, that was most likely due to financing not choice.

    As to the flattening prices, I would guess that most the houses being built now were built on land bought based on 2015 prices, so except for perhaps slightly higher building cost now the builders are probably really raking it in!

  36. 36
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Suburban Mom @ 32

    Another believer in Eric’s favorite theory!

  37. 37
    ess says:

    By Deerhawke @ 33:

    These next few months will certainly be interesting.

    Will small landlords who have been reluctant to sell decide that now is the time to quickly dump those high-maintenance single-family units since rents and prices are flat?

    Will retirees decide that now is finally the time to put that old place on the market so they can bake in the sun in Scottsdale since prices are not rising by the month?

    Will builders decide to build less given rising interest rates and building costs set against flattening prices?

    Will potential buyers decide that they will continue renting since rents are flat and stable, prices are no bargain and interest rates are rising?

    Or will all of the above decide to put off a decision until later in the year to see just how things shake out?

    Attending open houses from time to time both in Seattle and north, I had a discussion with two Seattle real estate condo investors who indicated to me they wish to sell their investments because of the new rental requirements recently enacted by the Seattle City Council. At one of a few single family homes we have viewed in the last few months in Seattle, the long term rental was on the market for the same reason.

    Added to the mix – the higher interest rates go – the less attractive a real estate investment, with all its hassles is, compared to other investments, especially longer term CDs and bond rates. Less money with a bond ladder perhaps – but much less hassle.

    Of course if some of the above as Deerhawke suggests happens, – rents should remain fairly stable – especially if prospective buyers are worried about falling real estate prices and continue to rent rather than buy. Added to the mix will be the reduced building of rental units, and if those rental units that are sold are purchased by homeowners and not for rental investments and thus reduce the number of available rental units. The true stress on rents would occur if there was a significant amount of out migration from the area.

    I guess we will have to wait and see what the future holds. Much of it depends on factors such as the local and national economy, interest rates, fall out (if any from the recent head tax), as well as possible elimination of same head tax via a vote of the people.

  38. 38
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 35

    Actually Kary, for the past few years, builders have been doing very, very well. Much higher margins than normal.

    But this is cyclical. I am seeing some really stupid pricing in the areas I follow. Some builders have really been greedy and are seriously over-pricing. They are way out over their skis.

    And their houses are sitting. I have talked to a few whose houses are sitting and have heard all the typical rationalizations.

    I should have gotten it on the market earlier in the spring.

    I should have upgraded the hardwood floors (appliances, tile, etc.).

    I should have used a better architect, designer, etc.

    When it comes time to cut their prices, they will blame it on the head tax, interest rates, etc. etc. And they will still have a really nice margin. But their banker will be watching them much more carefully. That is when you get a slowdown in building– when the bankers start to put on the brakes.

  39. 39
    Brian says:

    By Deerhawke @ 38:

    And their houses are sitting. I have talked to a few whose houses are sitting and have heard all the typical rationalizations.

    Or maybe because they’re all building 4000 sq ft McMansions that start at $1M+ that only so many DINK tech couples or executives can afford. Time to build smaller homes.

  40. 40

    By Deerhawke @ 38:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 35

    Actually Kary, for the past few years, builders have been doing very, very well. Much higher margins than normal.

    That was sort of my point–when they started the project the expected selling prices were much lower–it would be hard to not do well given the length of time these things can take from start to finish.

    As to getting greedy, I think we’ll see some of that in other areas as (if?) the inventory situation improves. Agents are going to have to adjust their strategies, but in addition pricing now is a bit more difficult. In the past if something sold for $650,000 the concern was more over whether it was maybe poorly marketed and should have sold for more. Now the main concern is just the opposite. Maybe it was listed for $580,000, and if so, that doesn’t mean it would have sold for $650,000 if listed at $650,000 or even $630,000.

  41. 41
    greg says:

    By Matt P @ 26:

    By SDE2 @ 20:

    RE: ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 12

    If the housing market is so easily predictable, everyone would be able to make money with almost no risks. That actually would turn housing market into an ATM machine.

    We can only tell the story from a hindsight, but I don’t think that will apply to the next crash. I think today’s market is somewhat similar to the 1970s when house inventory was also low and the Feds kept printing millions of millions of dollars. Today is even worse with low inventory, more people (people make babies over the years and immigrants influx), and Feds print $4 billion dollars a day. That will drive up/inflate the house price even more. I think the house price will continue to go up until 2027 or at least 2021.

    RE: SDE2 @ 20

    The fed stopped printing money a couple years and over half a year ago started actually unwinding all of the QE by letting money disappear – literally- by not buying more MBS and Treasuries to replace those that matured or rolled off. This means less liquidity and rising rates. Keep believing that it isn’t happening, but that doesn’t change the fact that it is.

    You may as well talk to the wall, there are a lot of folk here who only want information that says prices are going up up up . They don’t want to hear facts that conflict with never ending price increases.

  42. 42
    Wile E. Millenial says:

    AMZN$ is up like 42% YTD, which will likely keep things frothy. Microsoft and GOOG bringing up the rear with less impressive figures. A new engineer at Amazon could easily get $200K in unvested equity at hire time, so that $84k in gains is a nice boost to the ol’ down payment, even after taxes…

  43. 43
    BacktoBasics says:

    demand still exceed supply in foreseeable future. price increase will slow down as interest increase.

  44. 44
    Wile E. Millenial says:

    On the one hand there are some signs of cooling. OTOH…

    I went to an open house a month ago for a pretty dinky 3/1 far out in NE Seattle. Bedrooms with ceilings too low to stand up, vinyl-asbestos flooring in some bedrooms, mediocre location in a “nice enough” area pretty far from anything.

    Girlfriend and I both guessed it would sell for around $650k, but it turns out we both underestimated by more than 10%. The house went more than 30% over ask.

  45. 45
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Brian @ 39

    We have a lot of smaller houses being built in Seattle now. They are called townhouses. I am seeing some that are only 12′ wide and about 1000 sf. Or is this not what you have in mind?

  46. 46
    greg says:

    By Deerhawke @ 38:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 35

    Actually Kary, for the past few years, builders have been doing very, very well. Much higher margins than normal.

    But this is cyclical. I am seeing some really stupid pricing in the areas I follow. Some builders have really been greedy and are seriously over-pricing. They are way out over their skis.

    And their houses are sitting. I have talked to a few whose houses are sitting and have heard all the typical rationalizations.

    I should have gotten it on the market earlier in the spring.

    I should have upgraded the hardwood floors (appliances, tile, etc.).

    I should have used a better architect, designer, etc.

    When it comes time to cut their prices, they will blame it on the head tax, interest rates, etc. etc. And they will still have a really nice margin. But their banker will be watching them much more carefully. That is when you get a slowdown in building– when the bankers start to put on the brakes.

    I have been getting emails from Redfin announcing price drops for the last 3-4 weeks. I am not claiming anything in particular because it might just reflect the sellers getting ahead of the market or it might reflect buyers being spooked, or maybe both.

  47. 47
    Brian says:

    By Deerhawke @ 44:

    RE: Brian @ 39

    We have a lot of smaller houses being built in Seattle now. They are called townhouses. I am seeing some that are only 12′ wide and about 1000 sf. Or is this not what you have in mind?

    That’s Seattle. They don’t build hardly anything but McMansions on the Eastside.

  48. 48
    CB says:

    So I get this blog is “Seattle Bubble” and not “Renton Bubble” or “South King County Bubble.” But I finally get to list our house in the Rentonish-area – and it’s been on the market for 5 days! And not one single offer, not even one for below asking. This after the realtor had originally said it would be listed on a Friday – and have multiple offers on the weekend. Now the realtor’s shrugging and saying simply, “The market’s slowed.”

    Just hoping that all the construction money – and three month waiting time for the contractor to snail through it – is worth it!

  49. 49

    How long would it be before there’s a correction if the Mariners win over 100 games?

  50. 50

    By CB @ 48:

    So I get this blog is “Seattle Bubble” and not “Renton Bubble” or “South King County Bubble.” But I finally get to list our house in the Rentonish-area – and it’s been on the market for 5 days! And not one single offer, not even one for below asking. This after the realtor had originally said it would be listed on a Friday – and have multiple offers on the weekend. Now the realtor’s shrugging and saying simply, “The market’s slowed.”

    Just hoping that all the construction money – and three month waiting time for the contractor to snail through it – is worth it!

    Construction money? Was this a flip?

    Inventory is up in the Renton area. My HOA is over 1000 homes and a few months ago there were zero active listings for a time. Now there are four or five.

  51. 51
    Brian says:

    By CB @ 48:

    So I get this blog is “Seattle Bubble” and not “Renton Bubble” or “South King County Bubble.” But I finally get to list our house in the Rentonish-area – and it’s been on the market for 5 days!

    Just curious, did you have an offer review date?

  52. 52
    ronp says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 34 – head tax will never be repealed by Seattle voters. Maybe if the entire county or region could vote on it?

    I agree think close in near light rail stations, transit, bike routes, walkable, should weather the downturn pretty damn well. Downtown condos too, even Bellevue ones.

  53. 53
    ronp says:

    RE: Wile E. Millenial @ 44 – I was thinking about selling our NE Seattle house and picking one up near Matthews beach (farther NE), not have a mortgage, etc. Yikes – those non sidewalk, no view babies have increased insanely in the past three years, need to go up to Shoreline for my retirement house now.

  54. 54
    kenmorem says:

    reasons why we sold our northgate townhouse (used as a rental) in april, 2018:
    – anticipated rising interest rates
    – HQ2 draining the flood of new $
    – rental market softening
    – were at breakeven on rent/mortgage, so wanted to use that money for REI in midwest or LCOL locations
    – bidding war frenzy seemed to be peaking
    – wanted to get out before seattle city clouncil did even more stupid things
    – wanted to de-lever given current national economic cycle

    interestingly, redfin had previously estimated its value at $705k when we listed it. after the $790k sale price, it’s now up to $810k. i guess redfin is just basically another appraiser in a rising tide market.
    https://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/9506-Interlake-Ave-N-98103/unit-B/home/104632

    BTW: CAGR for this was 6.5%. purchased at the previous peak in 2007.

  55. 55
    N says:

    The general tone in the comments seems to be changing ever so slightly. A few interesting takes:

    ** As Tim reports indicates, May was the FIRST month since 2007 that had over 4,000 new listings – This means MORE NEW LISTINGS THAN ANY MONTH in 2009, 2010, 2011 – all those years of high inventory that some on here are pointing out will be the trigger to sell.

    ** This isn’t the first month of increasing YOY inventory as some claimed, more like month 3, depending on if you look at standing inventory or new inventory.

    ** Last year’s inventory high was 3,000, we have nearly hit that number with nearly 4 months left before the 2017 high was reached.

  56. 56
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: kenmorem @ 54

    Right reasons, right timing, right call. That is a lot of money for that house in that location. You probably hit exactly the peak weekend to list it. Things got substantially softer in May.

  57. 57
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: ronp @ 52

    I am probably the most conservative of all my friends and they all (except one who is a friend/neighbor of Mike O’Brien) think the head tax is a looney idea. My kids, who caucused for Bernie, think it is a terrible idea. I asked my neighbors here in uber-liberal Greenlake, and there only seems to be one of them who thinks the head tax is a good idea. (“How else can we raise the money to help the homeless…”) The rest of my neighbors are pretty fed up with the mess being left by our local homeless types and would just as soon deport them back to their cities of birth. There is a bit of a neighborhood backlash in the offing.

    I am pretty sure the repeal will get on the ballot. The supporters of the head tax are noisy, angry people way out on the far left wing who organized really well to intimidate and roll the City Council. I don’t think they will win on the ballot.

  58. 58
    Boater says:

    By Deerhawke @ 34:

    My guess is that there will be different answers to the questions in the previous post depending on proximity to employment centers. The central neighborhoods in Seattle will see less change than Shoreline or Rainier Valley. The hottest zip codes on the East Side will remain quite hot, but the areas where people were just thinking that this was the new, new thing will suddenly feel a bit cooler. It is really about the difference between the core and the periphery.

    People in this market will be responding to economics (rising interest rates) and political signaling (Amazon hiring, the head tax debate, etc.)

    In the short term, we may find that because of political instability in Europe and debate about whether Italy might leave the Euro zone that US interest rates will flatten out or even fall a bit.

    Meanwhile, it seems that Amazon is still hiring in Seattle at a torrid pace. Good piece in the Seattle Times this past week.
    https://www.seattletimes.com/business/amazon/amazon-may-threaten-to-ditch-seattle-but-it-wouldnt-be-easy-to-leave/

    It looks like the head tax will repeal initiative will get on the fall ballot and if it does, the head tax probably will be repealed. The next day Amazon will announce that it will fill the Rainier Square tower after all and that will be an important signal to the real estate market.

    All the people I know in the tech sector here talk about how fast they are hiring. My guess is that MS, Google, Facebook, F5, Tableau, and all the biotech/medical companies in the area will continue on the same path they have been on for the past few years.

    In other words, I think the fundamentals of this local market have not changed quite as much as it seems.

    Short of big national/international problems that effect the regional market (like in 2008) I think we will see a flattening of the price growth curve. But I definitely don’t see thing dropping off a cliff and staying down 3-4 years.

    So Ardell, I will take the other side of your bet.

    And you will do it with real money unlike almost everyone else here.

  59. 59
    Wile E. Millenial says:

    RE: ronp @ 53 – definitely true. You don’t save a whole lot of money going downhill from Wedgwood, despite the lack of commercial amenities in that area.

    I would put up with, say, a $300/yr property tax increase if I could buy a beer at Matthews Beach.

  60. 60
    Wile E. Millenial says:

    I kinda like Ridgecrest, though. Could plausibly be a hipster vibe up there in 30 to 80 more years.

  61. 61
    pedaltothemetal says:

    RE: ronp @ 53

    Who needs sidewalks? Or good roads? Or good schools? etc. etc.

    All we need is more cheep stuff made somewhere else! We are more Walmart than Walmart baby!

    Crawl up inside that overpriced moss pit and put that VR headset on! I believe there is an app that will show you what sidewalks are. Enjoy!

  62. 62
    pedaltothemetal says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 57

    Trend is populism. Populism for Sanders. Populism for Trump. Populism in Italy. Populism in Seattle.

    Too few with too much. Too many with too little.

    Go rub those bezos balls!

  63. 63
    David says:

    It could also be that Winter just seemed to go on forever and there was a lot of pent-up inventory no one wanted to list during the coooold rainy months. I mean it is Spring and school is getting out soon. Time to list.

  64. 64
    Eastsider says:

    By Deerhawke @ 57:

    The supporters of the head tax are noisy, angry people way out on the far left wing who organized really well to intimidate and roll the City Council.

    I’m not so sure about the city council. They voted for the head tax 9-0? Perhaps you should run for the city council or start a recall campaign. The current CC will continue to dream up new looney taxes and regulations to drive employers away.

  65. 65
    N says:

    @ David 63 – Except that last year (where the 35% bump YOY comes from) was much much wetter. Last year it was quite rainy til about the 3rd week in June, this year the rain valve was turned off about 4-6 weeks earlier, or so it seems. Lots of excuses as to why inventory is up 35%, either it is a blip or we will have another 3 months of up inventory and the excuses will disappear as the reality of some type of change settles in.

  66. 66
    David says:

    RE: N @ 65 – Boeing cut ~25k jobs in WA during the recent run-up in housing prices. Boeing is now hiring again. So the population rose by ~114k while Boeing was cutting jobs.

    Amazon HQ runs on computers. They could easily move anywhere with jobs like that at the drop of a hat. BUT unless they do, then inventory should be soaked up.

    Of course Seattle, during the course of Amazon looking for a 2nd HQ, decided to impose a JOBS tax on Amazon. Real smart – the smarterest. They call it a head tax – but I see that as slut shaming.

  67. 67
    pedaltothemetal says:

    Now is a great time to buy! Especially if you’ve got one of those Amazon ball shining jobs. What’s not to like shining the bezos balls?

  68. 68
    SDE2 says:

    By David @ 66:

    RE:
    Amazon HQ runs on computers. They could easily move anywhere with jobs like that at the drop of a hat. BUT unless they do, then inventory should be soaked up.

    True, Amazon HQ runs on computers, but it’s their workforce that control those computers. I don’t think their IT engineers will relocate to wherever Amazon HQ moves to. There is a reason to call Seattle the second biggest tech hub in this country.

  69. 69
    pedaltothemetal says:

    RE: SDE2 @ 68

    True. And just think of moving those bezos balls! The bezos ball shining jobs are here to stay!

  70. 70
    pfft says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 29:

    Seriously? The discussion is what happened to these figures “last time?” Our market did not peak “last time” due to our market. Our market peaked due to national/international economic events.

    And in any case, things seldom happen the same way twice. So even if our market had peaked due to the factors of our market, that doesn’t mean that the events would play out the same way again.

    the past isn’t prologue but it sure does rhyme or something like that.

  71. 71
    pfft says:

    By Deerhawke @ 57:

    RE: ronp @ 52

    I am probably the most conservative of all my friends and they all (except one who is a friend/neighbor of Mike O’Brien) think the head tax is a looney idea. My kids, who caucused for Bernie, think it is a terrible idea. I asked my neighbors here in uber-liberal Greenlake, and there only seems to be one of them who thinks the head tax is a good idea. (“How else can we raise the money to help the homeless…”) The rest of my neighbors are pretty fed up with the mess being left by our local homeless types and would just as soon deport them back to their cities of birth. There is a bit of a neighborhood backlash in the offing.

    I am pretty sure the repeal will get on the ballot. The supporters of the head tax are noisy, angry people way out on the far left wing who organized really well to intimidate and roll the City Council. I don’t think they will win on the ballot.

    sounds like typical conservatives. complain and complain but repeal the only plan out there and the only way to pay for it.

    do you realize that if you want to solve the homeless problem it’s going to take more money. if people at least don’t want to solve the problem or don’t want to spend any money on it they should just say so.

  72. 72
    pfft says:

    By pedaltothemetal @ 69:

    RE: SDE2 @ 68

    True. And just think of moving those bezos balls! The bezos ball shining jobs are here to stay!

    you’re my favorite person here.

  73. 73
    Think Big! says:

    @pedaltothemetal

    Dude, give it a rest…

  74. 74
    pedaltothemetal says:

    RE: Think Big! @ 73

    @Think Big!

    Don’t look inside the warehouses, or the cube farms. Just look at the balls. Aren’t they nice! Remember to think big!

  75. 75
    BacktoBasics says:

    If Seattle population grows, there is always need for housing. Unlike many places in the US, we are surround by mountains and Puget sound. There aren’t much land to build SFH. We will continue to see tight inventory and price appreciation in the coming years. Amazon is not going away. MSFT actually is expending campus size. We will see head tax being repealed in this fall.

  76. 76
    Minnie says:

    RE: ronp @ 53

    Shoreline has some awesome homes….with views….heard of Innis Arden?

  77. 77
    Minnie says:

    RE: kenmorem @ 54
    We decided to sell our home last year, instead of list it for many of those same reasons
    -Seattle City Council craziness
    -Threat of City erecting tent city nearby
    -Rising property taxes
    -After mortgage and reasonable maintenance calcs, would clear barely anything

    We realized to keep the place would be based on a super long hold, or just pure speculation. Plus we didn’t want to drive ourselves crazy trying to keep up with the market (we had been thinking about selling it since early spring ’16)

    I noticed the exact same thing with Redfin as well. Our home sold for well over the redfin estimate and boom, suddenly the redfin estimate was MORE. I notice it on other properties as well. I really dislike that redfin estimate and I really think it affects the price. I wish it would go away. I just hope the assessors don’t start using it…yikes.

  78. 78
    BacktoBasics says:

    By Minnie @ 77:

    RE: kenmorem @ 54
    We decided to sell our home last year, instead of list it for many of those same reasons
    -Seattle City Council craziness
    -Threat of City erecting tent city nearby
    -Rising property taxes
    -After mortgage and reasonable maintenance calcs, would clear barely anything

    We realized to keep the place would be based on a super long hold, or just pure speculation. Plus we didn’t want to drive ourselves crazy trying to keep up with the market (we had been thinking about selling it since early spring ’16)

    I noticed the exact same thing with Redfin as well. Our home sold for well over the redfin estimate and boom, suddenly the redfin estimate was MORE. I notice it on other properties as well. I really dislike that redfin estimate and I really think it affects the price. I wish it would go away. I just hope the assessors don’t start using it…yikes.

    Welcome to Est side of lake Washington. We are business friendly and more family friendly.

  79. 79
    Minnie says:

    RE: BacktoBasics @ 75

    See, I’m not sure that argument holds up.

    A lot of owners of housing here are speculators. I think that article in last week’s times said 1 in 6 homes is owned for investment?

    I’m not surprised by that at all, I know many many people who own a few rentals, and in our old neighborhood I could count 4 of 10 homes on my block that were investments.

    You’ll see more of that now with the backyard cottage industry, where folks will be duped into thinking its a great idea to fork over 400K to get a rental income of what….2k/month max? Not a good idea…

  80. 80
    ronp says:

    RE: Wile E. Millenial @ 59 – you are totally correct about beer and food vendors in the parks, european cities lease space out in their parks for food and drink and it works out great!!!

    Magnuson will get a really nice brewery soon though — https://seattle.eater.com/2018/5/18/17353734/magnuson-cafe-and-brewery-under-construction-photos-mollusk-brewing-dexter-brewhouse

  81. 81

    RE: Minnie @ 77RE: kenmorem @ 54 – Automated valuation systems are inheriently inaccurate, and more so the longer it’s been since the property sold. They obviously no longer have that problem once the property sells and for a short time thereafter.

    There are several of these automated valuation systems, and they will typically have widely varying results. I’ve never heard a buyer say: “But the _________ value is only X dollars.”

    Finally assessors are not going to start using the Redfin, Zillow, Corelogic or any other automated valuation, but they have their own system which is also highly automated in most cases. It’s very rare that an assessor actually steps foot inside a house, except maybe when it’s newly built (not sure).

  82. 82
    pfft says:

    By BacktoBasics @ 75:

    If Seattle population grows, there is always need for housing. Unlike many places in the US, we are surround by mountains and Puget sound. There aren’t much land to build SFH. We will continue to see tight inventory and price appreciation in the coming years. Amazon is not going away. MSFT actually is expending campus size. We will see head tax being repealed in this fall.

    One of the problems is that people don’t want zoning changes that would increase density. that’s some agenda 21 sheet.

  83. 83

    By Eastsider @ 64:

    By Deerhawke @ 57:

    The supporters of the head tax are noisy, angry people way out on the far left wing who organized really well to intimidate and roll the City Council.

    I’m not so sure about the city council. They voted for the head tax 9-0? Perhaps you should run for the city council or start a recall campaign. The current CC will continue to dream up new looney taxes and regulations to drive employers away.

    Not sure? The members of the City Council are extremely left wing, but in an unthinking way. They give left wing people a bad name. They are way out there on their own on the head tax and homelessness issues. Here’s a story about a recent poll.

    https://crosscut.com/2018/06/new-poll-shows-seattle-voters-are-fed-homeless-spending

  84. 84
    Erik says:

    RE: Think Big! @ 73
    Code monkeys have fun by copying and pasting the same idea or thought over and over. We can see this code monkey doing that here. I learned that years ago when this gang of nerds called “Wreckingbull and the goon squad” would do this over and over. Wreckingbull would make a comment that came from a low level of intelligence. Then the goon squad would come along and repeat the same thing over and over and over. What we are observing from this commenter appears to be a similar thought process.

  85. 85
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 83 – They give left wing people a bad name? LOL. Pfft@71 suggests that liberals are “like typical conservatives. complain and complain but repeal the only plan out there and the only way to pay for it.”

    I would love to see conservatives take back city hall from socialists/communists in the next election.

  86. 86
    wreckingbull says:

    RE: Erik @ 84 – The goon squad and I are now too busy stockpiling coconut milk for the great reset of 2022. No time for such frivolities you speak of.

  87. 87
    Erik says:

    RE: wreckingbull @ 86
    Get your coconut at qfc or Safeway please. Trader Joe’s is my spot.

    Coconut milk is a sellers market right now. Based on supply and demand, I see prices going up.

  88. 88
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: pfft @ 71

    Compared to you, I guess I am a conservative. Then again it is all relative–you are a leftist caricature, so that kind of puts me right where I want to be in the pragmatic, progressive center.

    “Complain and complain but repeal the only plan out there and the only way to pay for it.”

    The only plan…. The only way…..Wait. Believe something other than what the city council preaches and what…, you go to hell and burn in the flames of iniquity? Are you really that kind of dogmatic evangelical leftist?

    You are saying there is only one correct policy and one correct way to achieve it??? That is a mental straight-jacket if I have ever seen one. It prevents you from doing any real creative thinking.

    We have people on the city council who don’t know a damned thing about creating housing. I, on the other hand, actually do.

    I have met with different council members to talk about effective ways to produce more housing for less money. They refuse to look at the numbers. They refuse to acknowledge that they are throwing massive amounts of money away without producing substantive progress on housing for the homeless and working poor.

    Maybe after the repeal, they will start to think again about why they are spending $450 per sf for very basic formica, marmoleum and industrial carpet finishes.

    Forcing through more taxes to feed into a leaky, inefficient spending machine is not the answer. The voters have had enough of the stilted left-wing rhetoric. They want Amazon’s jobs and real results on homelessness.

  89. 89
    pfft says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 83:

    By Eastsider @ 64:

    By Deerhawke @ 57:

    The supporters of the head tax are noisy, angry people way out on the far left wing who organized really well to intimidate and roll the City Council.

    I’m not so sure about the city council. They voted for the head tax 9-0? Perhaps you should run for the city council or start a recall campaign. The current CC will continue to dream up new looney taxes and regulations to drive employers away.

    Not sure? The members of the City Council are extremely left wing, but in an unthinking way. They give left wing people a bad name. They are way out there on their own on the head tax and homelessness issues. Here’s a story about a recent poll.

    https://crosscut.com/2018/06/new-poll-shows-seattle-voters-are-fed-homeless-spending

    so how would you fix the problem kary? where would you get the money? an income tax?

    I bet some of you don’t want to fix the problem.

  90. 90
    pfft says:

    By Deerhawke @ 88:

    RE: pfft @ 71

    Compared to you, I guess I am a conservative. Then again it is all relative–you are a leftist caricature, so that kind of puts me right where I want to be in the pragmatic, progressive center.

    “Complain and complain but repeal the only plan out there and the only way to pay for it.”

    The only plan…. The only way…..Wait. Believe something other than what the city council preaches and what…, you go to hell and burn in the flames of iniquity? Are you really that kind of dogmatic evangelical leftist?

    You are saying there is only one correct policy and one correct way to achieve it??? That is a mental straight-jacket if I have ever seen one. It prevents you from doing any real creative thinking.

    We have people on the city council who don’t know a damned thing about creating housing. I, on the other hand, actually do.

    I have met with different council members to talk about effective ways to produce more housing for less money. They refuse to look at the numbers. They refuse to acknowledge that they are throwing massive amounts of money away without producing substantive progress on housing for the homeless and working poor.

    Maybe after the repeal, they will start to think again about why they are spending $450 per sf for very basic formica, marmoleum and industrial carpet finishes.

    Forcing through more taxes to feed into a leaky, inefficient spending machine is not the answer. The voters have had enough of the stilted left-wing rhetoric. They want Amazon’s jobs and real results on homelessness.

    “you are a leftist caricature”

    And I think the same of many right-wingers here and everywhere. You guys think you’re much different than any other conservatives I know or someone on Facebook or fox news? why would I be a leftist caricature, because I believe in leftist things? maybe you guys just have never come across a loud democrat before.

    Nope, I am just a loud democrat who doesn’t take any crap from conservatives. Take note ANYBODY, ask conservatives for a source or a study for their argument and often times they simply can’t. I would argue anyone should ask for evidence. conservative of dems and dems of conservatives.

    “They refuse to acknowledge that they are throwing massive amounts of money away without producing substantive progress on housing for the homeless and working poor.”

    source/link. keep in mind the number of new jobs the city council is producing is causing home prices to rise which causes a rise in homelessness and all the other quality of life issues.

    ” The only plan…. The only way…..Wait.”

    I have never seen anyone on here advocate for helping the homeless much less talk about any plan of substance. I just here obstruction obstruction obstruction. I have heard plenty of homeless bashing though.

    look at the housing situation. everyone wants affordable housing but nobody wants to do what is necessary- a move away from single family homes with a large lot to more density. why? for many density=poor=minorities. nobody wants their neighborhood to change from what it was when they moved.

  91. 91
    wreckingbull says:

    By Deerhawke @ 88:

    RE: pfft @ 71

    Forcing through more taxes to feed into a leaky, inefficient spending machine is not the answer. The voters have had enough of the stilted left-wing rhetoric. They want Amazon’s jobs and real results on homelessness.

    This is true, although it is way worse that just an inefficient spending machine. The Seattle Homeless Industrial Complex has deep tentacles, six-figure salaries, and many layers of self-preserving bureaucracy. More money pumped into the system just means more cream to skim and a worse homeless situation. It has played out this way for the last four years.

  92. 92
    pfft says:

    By wreckingbull @ 91:

    By Deerhawke @ 88:

    RE: pfft @ 71

    Forcing through more taxes to feed into a leaky, inefficient spending machine is not the answer. The voters have had enough of the stilted left-wing rhetoric. They want Amazon’s jobs and real results on homelessness.

    This is true, although it is way worse that just an inefficient spending machine. The Seattle Homeless Industrial Complex has deep tentacles, six-figure salaries, and many layers of self-preserving bureaucracy. More money pumped into the system just means more cream to skim and a worse homeless situation. It has played out this way for the last four years.

    link please.

    what is your plan?

    Six-figure jobs are unworthy for those working for the homeless? how do you know? because why?

  93. 93
    ARDELL DellaLoggia says:

    RE: pfft @ 90

    It’s easy to be LOUD when you’re ananymous. Be more than that. Use your real name.

  94. 94
    pfft says:

    By ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 93:

    RE: pfft @ 90

    It’s easy to be LOUD when you’re ananymous. Be more than that. Use your real name.

    can I be angry then? I don’t know what anonymity has got to do with anything. I am a democrat and belief in their ideals.

  95. 95

    RE: pfft @ 94

    It’s hard to take an onomatopoeia seriously.

  96. 96
    greg you says:

    We sold our rental in north Seattle this spring. We’ve been ready to get out of the business for some time and considered:
    – Rental rates not keeping up
    – Rising property taxes
    – Rising cost of repairs
    – Outside of core area, prone to market softness in a downturn.

  97. 97
    pfft says:

    By ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 95:

    RE: pfft @ 94

    It’s hard to take an onomatopoeia seriously.

    oof!

  98. 98
    pfft says:

    By greg you @ 96:

    We sold our rental in north Seattle this spring. We’ve been ready to get out of the business for some time and considered:
    – Rental rates not keeping up
    – Rising property taxes
    – Rising cost of repairs
    – Outside of core area, prone to market softness in a downturn.

    if I may ask, what did you do with the money?

  99. 99
    Erik says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 36
    Read about it deerhawk before you throw stones. It’s the asset curve turned into 4 quadrants for real estate. Most common peak to peak is 18 years. That has relevance whether you think it’s true or not.

    We could be getting into the hyper supply quadrant soon. Next quadrant is recession.

  100. 100
  101. 101
    Erik says:

    RE: Blurtman @ 100
    I’m merely a victim of cyber bullying on Seattle Bubble with the courage to speaking out. I was targeted by Wreckingbull and the goon squad for years. Through perseverance and therapy I was able to get through the attacks and muster up the strength to tell my story.

  102. 102
    wreckingbull says:

    RE: pfft @ 92 – Here is a good read to get you started. I have to warn you, it is not 20-word talking points like you prefer, but I do think you will find it interesting.

    https://roominate.com/blog/2016/anatomy-of-a-swindle/

  103. 103

    By pfft @ 89:

    so how would you fix the problem kary? where would you get the money? an income tax?

    I bet some of you don’t want to fix the problem.

    Well first, unlike the Seattle City Council, I’d actually have a plan of how to spend the money before implementing the plan to raise the money. That Seattle did it in reverse order is part of their unthinking ways that I mentioned. Actually, it’s downright moronic.

    Second, I would focus on jobs and drug treatment, and drop their unthinking policies that make it more difficult to get jobs. (E.g. sanctuary city and minimum wage). If homelessness is such a crisis, then it needs to be the number one priority, so they can drop those other things which are counterproductive to helping the homeless (and as to sanctuary city, counter to affordable housing).

    Third, I would quit enabling them by having law enforcement ignore their illegal activities of camping on sidewalks and in the woods, and instead designate more places that they can legally camp (with garbage and bathroom facilities). Being what I call invisible has to be terrible on their self-esteem and morale, but beyond that, it also makes them more unpopular with the other citizens, and that is hardly a good thing. Again I’d reference that survey I linked to last night.

  104. 104
    CB says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 50
    No, we had lived there – but it needed a lot of work. Had a hubby who fancied himself a handyman, but wasn’t!

  105. 105
    CB says:

    RE: Brian @ 51
    I saw the listing to the agents – which said that we were reviewing offers as they came in. So, obviously, there have been no offers. :-(

  106. 106

    By CB @ 105:

    RE: Brian @ 51
    I saw the listing to the agents – which said that we were reviewing offers as they came in. So, obviously, there have been no offers. :-(

    That eliminates the possibility that some buyers are waiting for the review period to pass, so they can hopefully avoid a bidding war situation. Actually the reverse is true–people wanting to avoid a bidding war would have jumped on it right away.

  107. 107
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: pfft @ 90

    The homelessness problem is intractable. But there are pragmatic progressive policies that do not entail drinking the Seattle City Council Koolaid. More money is not the answer– not if you are just putting that money into the same old money sieve.

    Here are a few ideas:

    1) We need to make city policy entirely about getting people off the streets, into rehab/treatment and into jobs. Check out this article in today’s Seattle Times by a board member of the Millionaire’s Club. They key is getting more jobs, not taxing them.

    https://www.seattletimes.com/opinion/the-key-word-missing-in-homelessness-debate-jobs/

    2) We need lots of carrots, but also a stick– a tough love policy. You want to be long-term homeless because you don’t want to work or contribute to the community? Sorry, we have no time for you. That is not the Seattle way. Pick up your tent and move along.

    3) Instead of trying to pass taxes on large employers (who are already providing valuable public goods in the form of jobs), try to partner with them. Hey Amazon, can you appoint a point-person to help move people from homelessness into work in your warehouses?

    4) Get market rate developers to build transitional housing. The guys who produce Apodments really know what they are doing. Ask them to build for the city. It is not a problem that they make a profit because it will be way cheaper than what is coming off the slow and really, really expensive production line from the Homeless Industrial Complex at $450+/sf.

    5) Change zoning laws so we get more housing in general and especially along arterials. Why do you see single family houses along I-5, 80th St and 85th St?

    6) Scale back the code so that is simpler and less expensive to build. When I started building in Seattle in 1999, a set of plans for a 5 unit townhouse complex (two different duplex designs and a single) was eighteen 24×36 pages. Now the plans for a single family house runs to 24 pages. And the type is way, way smaller and denser.

    Those are a few thoughts off the top of my head, but in general you want to incentivize what you consider to be a public good and have a disincentive for outcomes you don’t want. This is very basic economics.

    Having an incentive for people to be long-term homeless? Having a disincentive for companies to create jobs here? That is not sticking it to the man– it is just stupid.

  108. 108
    wreckingbull says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 103 – This is one of the best summaries have seen. Good response. I’d add one thing – it is also important to segment the homeless. There are those who will never want to help themselves and only abuse the system. These people must be segmented from those who want to get off the streets. When you just throw money at the problem without a nuanced plan, you are being quite cruel to those who need and want the help.

  109. 109

    RE: Deerhawke @ 107 – No, no, no! All you need is an income tax! That will solve every problem. /sarc

    Seriously, thanks for the other post. I’m not sure exactly how you segregate the others, but non-enforcement of basic laws clearly enables them.

  110. 110
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 107 – LOL. Sounds totally conservative to me. (Not that I disagree!)

  111. 111
    Eastsider says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 103:

    Third, I would quit enabling them by having law enforcement ignore their illegal activities of camping on sidewalks and in the woods, and instead designate more places that they can legally camp (with garbage and bathroom facilities). Being what I call invisible has to be terrible on their self-esteem and morale, but beyond that, it also makes them more unpopular with the other citizens, and that is hardly a good thing.

    Yes, their policies are turning liberals into conservatives. LOL.

  112. 112
    wreckingbull says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 107 – Fantastic post as well.

    Wow, the ‘conservatives’ here provide absolutely NO DETAILS on how to solve the problem. Pfft, COME HELP US, WE NEED DETAILS!

  113. 113
    wreckingbull says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 111 – A recent poll that backs up your comment. A massive change in sentiment is underway, and if the city does not change their approach, this will hurt those on the streets in a big way.

    https://crosscut.com/2018/06/new-poll-shows-seattle-voters-are-fed-homeless-spending

    Also, a response to the article from someone on the inside: (good stuff)

    https://www.reddit.com/r/SeattleWA/comments/8p4yvo/new_poll_shows_seattle_voters_are_fed_up_with/e08tzrl/

  114. 114
    greg says:

    By pfft @ 89:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 83:

    By Eastsider @ 64:

    By Deerhawke @ 57:

    The supporters of the head tax are noisy, angry people way out on the far left wing who organized really well to intimidate and roll the City Council.

    I’m not so sure about the city council. They voted for the head tax 9-0? Perhaps you should run for the city council or start a recall campaign. The current CC will continue to dream up new looney taxes and regulations to drive employers away.

    Not sure? The members of the City Council are extremely left wing, but in an unthinking way. They give left wing people a bad name. They are way out there on their own on the head tax and homelessness issues. Here’s a story about a recent poll.

    https://crosscut.com/2018/06/new-poll-shows-seattle-voters-are-fed-homeless-spending

    so how would you fix the problem kary? where would you get the money? an income tax?

    I bet some of you don’t want to fix the problem.

    NOPE, Most everyone wants to solve these problems, not 100% but the vast majority of people.
    At the same time the vast majority want someone else to pay for it.

  115. 115

    RE: pedaltothemetal @ 28
    You Made Me Laugh Petaltothemetal

    Speaking of your name….what kind of hotrod do ya drive? If I see it at a rare [invisible and phony too? LOL] listed used home open house it will be easy to find you with this non-existent used home [fairy tale too?] open house inventory….

    I have a theory this that party pooper banks shut the mortgage approval beer party down in Seattle because they fear 6-7% mortgage rates by 2019….the theory [likely?] holds water if mortgage interest trends follow long-term CD interest trends that are doubling the last 5 months [fron2+% to 4+% in 2018 YTD, last 5 month trending]. BTW the two usually follow each other, assuming the 5 month long-term CD interest trend continues to 2019. God forbid the banks here approve loans at a mere 3-4% anymore.

  116. 116
    uwp says:

    By Erik @ 87:

    Coconut milk is a sellers market right now. Based on supply and demand, I see prices going up.

    Fool.
    Coconut milk is on an 18 year cycle. I see prices dropping until 2022 when the downtrend flips and then it’s pina coladas as far as the eye can see.

    Don’t let wrecking bull and his gang of Everett CocoNUTS trick you into selling early. Back up the truck and get 40 cans next trip.

  117. 117
    greg says:

    By wreckingbull @ 102:

    RE: pfft @ 92 – Here is a good read to get you started. I have to warn you, it is not 20-word talking points like you prefer, but I do think you will find it interesting.

    https://roominate.com/blog/2016/anatomy-of-a-swindle/

    Your link leads to a typical word salad accusation. It is too long to read, so in short.. What were the charges and when were they convicted ? Otherwise it is just more noise.

  118. 118
    wreckingbull says:

    RE: greg @ 117 – Too long to read? Do you think a few sentences will solve the problem? You are helping me make my point.

    I’ll give you the Cliff’s Notes. Our current approach has no strategy, transparency, nor accountability.

  119. 119

    RE: greg @ 117
    Give Pffft Some Slack

    The Open Border Party has been told what to think and how to think it so long….I think they forgot how to think for themselves…they fear change. BTW, I do too…but I know one thing if we don’t change its curtains anyway. Its like an active shooter with a machine gun struts into your church to kill like 100 people….how about 10-20 of us come at him with metal tables and chairs from the coffee room and smash him unconscious or dead,,,we’re all gonna die anyway. So what if he only gets 1 or two of us before we smash him on the head?

    If you don’t believe this a possibly workable plan then what is? Accept doom?

  120. 120
    Blurtman says:

    Is there a Seattle version?

    San Francisco Requires Poop Maps To Help Pedestrians Avoid Human Waste

    For those who have maintained that San Francisco is full of . . . whatever, there is now living proof. How much poop is there on the streets of the City by the Bay?

    Would you believe there is an online map to track human feces on the city’s streets? There is.

    According to Fox News, one area of the city reported a 140% rise in feces. As Jay Caruso of RedState noted, “Public urination is so widespread it has damaged subway elevators and escalators, building walls and power poles.”

    When did the gleaming jewel that was San Francisco become a repository for poop? Mayor Willie Brown terminated ordinances; city district Attorney Terence Hallinan would not prosecute “victimless” crimes involving drugs and prostitution.

    A report from the Office of the Controller stated, “service requests related to human waste increased across all Supervisorial Districts in San Francisco in FY 2015-16, and at a rate well above the average growth in overall SF311 use. District 6 (in Zone B) had far more service requests related to human waste than any other district – three-times as many as the next highest count in District 9 (Zone D) – and nearly 30 percent more requests compared to FY 2014-15. This change appears to be driven mostly by additional reports along Market Street, south of

    Additionally, data from Public Works showed an increase of 13.5% in service orders generated from public service requests,

  121. 121
    David says:

    RE: Blurtman @ 120 – You know how Seattle people grouse about missing out on the subway funding Atlanta took after being rejected by Seattle?

    I worked in downtown Atlanta in a big high-rise for about a year and rode Atlanta’s MARTA subway every day back then. It wreaked of urine. You were foolish to ride it after 7PM. People get murdered on there too. Anything that happens to you is impossible to escape because you are in a sealed box with absolute scum and idiots.

    My last trip on LINK here in Seattle there were two ‘folk’ having intercourse right behind me.

    I thought about asking to join in – because it sounded like they were having so much fun. But then I remembered all those ‘abandonment’ criminal cases that I used to handle and the weird relationships that got someone preggers and thought better of it. The smell was nice though – if you’re into humid groin smell on a poky/puny bus/train excuse for a subway that is LINK.

  122. 122
    greg says:

    By wreckingbull @ 118:

    RE: greg @ 117 – Too long to read? Do you think a few sentences will solve the problem? You are helping me make my point.

    I’ll give you the Cliff’s Notes. Our current approach has no strategy, transparency, nor accountability.

    was there a charge in a court of law or not?

    The web is full of long winded BS stories that are just a series of unsupported accusations building on each other until finally the writer claims to have ‘proved ” something or other. Yet quoting an accusation as if it is a fact does not a case build.

    So i ask you again. Were they charged or is this just another “moon landing did not happen” story.

  123. 123
    wreckingbull says:

    RE: greg @ 122 – Sorry, response would be “too long to read”. Can’t put in in 140 characters for you.

  124. 124
    greg says:

    By wreckingbull @ 123:

    RE: greg @ 122 – Sorry, response would be “too long to read”. Can’t put in in 140 characters for you.

    in other words there is no charge and you are snowflaking.

  125. 125
    wreckingbull says:

    RE: greg @ 124 – No. I understand it was some in-depth reading, but you completely missed the point of the article. The problem is not a single non-profit. The problem is the system.

    Here, let’s put it into a way you might understand, and in a story that is short enough for you read.

    https://fablesofaesop.com/hen-fox.html

  126. 126

    RE: wreckingbull @ 123 – I read about half that article and some aligations seemed possibly valid and some not. For example, about the status of the accountant, maybe there’s some requirement that non-profits use CPAs, but absent that I could call myself an accountant because I have an accounting degree. There’s no requirement that a CPA prepare most tax returns–e.g. most the people at H&R Block are not CPAs. Also, making financial statements available is different than creating custom requested financial statements. Finally, I suspect “lobbying” involves paying a third party to influence a government body, not using volunteers or board members to do so directly, but I don’t know that for certain.

    Other things though did appear suspicious.

    But if anyone is interested in court proceedings, this is your link to search most counties in Washington: https://dw.courts.wa.gov/index.cfm?fa=home.home

  127. 127
    Blake says:

    By Eastsider @ 85:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 83 – They give left wing people a bad name? LOL. Pfft@71 suggests that liberals are “like typical conservatives. complain and complain but repeal the only plan out there and the only way to pay for it.”

    I would love to see conservatives take back city hall from socialists/communists in the next election.

    Why… conservatives don’t have any ideas or solutions. All they do is complain. Just look at the Fed govt now… The Repugs control both houses of Congress and the Presidency and they couldn’t accomplish anything except blowing a $1,500,000,000,000 hole in the budget! “Conservative” values… hah!
    How do you propose we deal with the homelessness problem – seriously? I am all ears.

  128. 128
    Blake says:

    By Deerhawke @ 107:

    RE: pfft @ 90

    The homelessness problem is intractable. But there are pragmatic progressive policies that do not entail drinking the Seattle City Council Koolaid. More money is not the answer– not if you are just putting that money into the same old money sieve.

    Here are a few ideas:

    1) We need to make city policy entirely about getting people off the streets, into rehab/treatment and into jobs. Check out this article in today’s Seattle Times by a board member of the Millionaire’s Club. They key is getting more jobs, not taxing them.

    https://www.seattletimes.com/opinion/the-key-word-missing-in-homelessness-debate-jobs/

    2) We need lots of carrots, but also a stick– a tough love policy. You want to be long-term homeless because you don’t want to work or contribute to the community? Sorry, we have no time for you. That is not the Seattle way. Pick up your tent and move along.

    3) Instead of trying to pass taxes on large employers (who are already providing valuable public goods in the form of jobs), try to partner with them. Hey Amazon, can you appoint a point-person to help move people from homelessness into work in your warehouses?

    4) Get market rate developers to build transitional housing. The guys who produce Apodments really know what they are doing. Ask them to build for the city. It is not a problem that they make a profit because it will be way cheaper than what is coming off the slow and really, really expensive production line from the Homeless Industrial Complex at $450+/sf.

    5) Change zoning laws so we get more housing in general and especially along arterials. Why do you see single family houses along I-5, 80th St and 85th St?

    6) Scale back the code so that is simpler and less expensive to build. When I started building in Seattle in 1999, a set of plans for a 5 unit townhouse complex (two different duplex designs and a single) was eighteen 24×36 pages. Now the plans for a single family house runs to 24 pages. And the type is way, way smaller and denser.

    Those are a few thoughts off the top of my head, but in general you want to incentivize what you consider to be a public good and have a disincentive for outcomes you don’t want. This is very basic economics.

    Having an incentive for people to be long-term homeless? Having a disincentive for companies to create jobs here? That is not sticking it to the man– it is just stupid.

    These are all good ideas, but I would note that solving this problem WILL take money. I’ve worked with homeless Vets (and others) and I’d estimate that at least 50% have pretty severe mental health problems (which also manifest as SUDs – substance use disorders)… it’s a vicious cycle. Childhood or military trauma leads to mental issues, which leads to SUD, which leads to more MH issues. MANY of these people will not hold a job until they get treatment and stay in treatment. (And many will never hold a job.) THAT is expensive! Band aids will not help much at all.

    I recall back in the 70s a Republican governor “discovered” the idea of deinstitutionalization – – ie. kicking the mentally ill out of the expensive treatment centers onto the streets! It… saved… money! Since then… well…?? The Republican governor? Ron Reagan.

    Sadly our country has been on this path for many years. A lot is possible if we had the resources, but…
    It seems that we are not a wealthy country after all and we need to keep taxes at half the rate our grandparents paid or the rich people will abandon the nation! Such patriotism! They “love the country,” but just hate the “Americans” that live here evidently.

  129. 129
    pfft says:

    By wreckingbull @ 112:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 107 – Fantastic post as well.

    Wow, the ‘conservatives’ here provide absolutely NO DETAILS on how to solve the problem. Pfft, COME HELP US, WE NEED DETAILS!

    this is the first time that any conservative on here has done anything except bash the homeless or the seattle city council…and you guys want a medal? I guess the bar is low.

    no offense, but this is how a discussion on homelessness SHOULD go. not constant bashing of liberals, the homeless and the city council. I’ve said numerous times that housing should come first. that is what the research says is the best way to tackle the problem.

    later I’ll poke holes in your plans. relocate them to parks? yeah I am sure the neighbors will LOVE that. it’s a very tough problem. rising home prices and the existing stigmatization of the homeless make it so.

  130. 130
    pfft says:

    By softwarengineer @ 119:

    RE: greg @ 117
    Give Pffft Some Slack

    The Open Border Party has been told what to think and how to think it so long….

    give it a rest. obama deported millions. nobody is for open borders.

    btw, this is why democrats and local police departments want “sanctuary” cities. people have to trust local law enforcement so they can talk to the police and help them solve crimes.

    Mass deportation fears continue to silence the immigrant victims of domestic abuse
    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/6/4/1769326/-Mass-deportation-fears-continue-to-silence-the-immigrant-victims-of-domestic-abuse

  131. 131
    pfft says:

    Later I am going to google the city council’s homeless plan(s). I already know beforehand it probably already deals with many of the plans posted here…what are the odds?

    kary a few weeks ago was arguing/complaining that special interest groups, like homeless advocates, were writing city council bills…who should they consult then? non-homeless groups? amazon? I am sure if Bezos had a plan the council would listen. but his low pay is part of the problem.

    Or corporate mentality in 2018 is ALWAYS LOW WAGES, ALWAYS.

  132. 132
    David says:

    RE: pfft @ 131 – Open borders = low wages. Always.

  133. 133
    David says:

    RE: Blake @ 128 – “They “love the country,” but just hate the “Americans” that live here evidently.”

    You live in a state (WA) that legalized widespread gambling and marijuana. Things that predate the poorest among us and keep them poor. The State is proud of it too.

  134. 134

    By pfft @ 131:

    kary a few weeks ago was arguing/complaining that special interest groups, like homeless advocates, were writing city council bills…who should they consult then? non-homeless groups? amazon? I am sure if Bezos had a plan the council would listen. but his low pay is part of the problem.

    That was a general comment and I don’t believe it was connected to the homeless issue. On many issues though the Seattle Council just passes legislation proposed by special interest groups. It’s a problem when you give any group their wish list. Even worse when you have that reputation.

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