July Stats Preview: The 2018 Listings Surge Continues

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The 2018 listings surge continued in July, with on-market single-family inventory hitting its highest level since October 2013.

Here’s the overall summary for July: Sales fell both month-over-month and year-over-year. Listings shot up yet again. Foreclosures are still at all-time lows.

Here’s the snapshot of all the data as far back as my historical information goes, with the latest, high, and low values highlighted for each series:

King & Snohomish County Stats Preview

Since it is still the most interesting thing going on in the market today, let’s start with an update of the inventory charts, updated with previous month’s inventory data from the NWMLS.

King County SFH Active Listings

Snohomish County SFH Active Listings

The number of homes on the market in King County rose twelve percent from June to July. Year-over-year listings were up 44 percent from July 2017, which is the largest year-over-year listings increase since April 2008.

In Snohomish County the month-over-month inventory increase was smaller at nine percent, and the year-over-year growth was fourteen percent.

Next, let’s look at total home sales as measured by the number of “Warranty Deeds” filed with King County:

King County Warranty Deeds

Sales in King County fell eight percent between June and July (a year ago they fell eleven percent over the same period), and were down nine percent year-over-year.

If I’m a hopeful home buyer, I’m definitely encouraged by the trend over the last few months, even if the market is still pretty tight right now. At least things are moving in a more favorable direction.

Here’s a look at Snohomish County Deeds, but keep in mind that Snohomish County files Warranty Deeds (regular sales) and Trustee Deeds (bank foreclosure repossessions) together under the category of “Deeds (except QCDS),” so this chart is not as good a measure of plain vanilla sales as the Warranty Deed only data we have in King County.

Snohomish County Deeds

Deeds in Snohomish dropped nine percent month-over-month (about the same as the same period last year) and were down six percent from a year earlier.

Next, here’s Notices of Trustee Sale, which are an indication of the number of homes currently in the foreclosure process:

King County Notices of Trustee Sale

Snohomish County Notices of Trustee Sale

Foreclosure notices in King County were down twenty-six percent from a year ago and Snohomish County foreclosure notices were down thirty-eight percent from last year.

Here’s another measure of foreclosures for King County, looking at Trustee Deeds, which is the type of document filed with the county when the bank actually repossesses a house through the trustee auction process. Note that there are other ways for the bank to repossess a house that result in different documents being filed, such as when a borrower “turns in the keys” and files a “Deed in Lieu of Foreclosure.”

King County Trustee Deeds

Trustee Deeds were down fifty-six percent from a year ago. The only time there have been fewer trustee deeds than we’ve seen over the last few months was late 2003.

Note that most of the charts above are based on broad county-wide data that is available through a simple search of King County and Snohomish County public records. If you have additional stats you’d like to see in the preview, drop a line in the comments and I’ll see what I can do.

Stay tuned later this month a for more detailed look at each of these metrics as the “official” data is released from various sources.

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About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. Tim also hosts the weekly improv comedy sci-fi podcast Dispatches from the Multiverse.

202 comments:

  1. 1
    ohd1122 says:

    So we have crossed the 4,000 inventory threshold, which some on this forum have said will be a strong indicator of market change. Do people agree? What inventory mark would be “significant”?

  2. 2
    October says:

    October will be the absolute “bellwether” on how substantial this really is. If inventory increases in October get ready for a flash flood. Do investors, local and foreign, especially those who are cash investors, pull their investment quickly at first inflection point? Then do local Joe’s try and catch the falling knife just behind professional investors? Oct. will be telling!!!

  3. 3
    wreckingbull says:

    Baby Boomers who have poorly prepared for retirement (and there are many) have been given a golden opportunity this summer to pull the eject lever and partially mitigate their bad planning. I sincerely hope that many will take advantage of this, but I doubt most will, since real estate is a magic golden goose. I don’t think they will see this opportunity again any time soon.

  4. 4
    SDE2 says:

    The article has an interesting dataset, but comparing 2017 and 2018 does not give a clear picture as to the overall market trend in the past 10 years or so. Of course, one can google out such info, but I don’t have that much time for research.

    It looks to me 2017 and 2018 (so far) have very similar trends in terms of inventory and sales. I don’t see that interesting, YoY change is hard to conclude because the sample size of two years is way too small, IMO.

  5. 5
    Notme says:

    This time different
    sales down inventory up
    sellers crowd exits

    –a Notme bubble haiku

  6. 6
    uwp says:

    want to buy a house?
    it is always a good time.
    want to sell a house?

    –a bubble haiku

  7. 7
    Macro Investor says:

    I sure hope some good inventory becomes available. I’m dreaming of a musty wooden box with a nice view of the homeless camps.

    I have $900k to spend, so perhaps a lovely 2/1 on a 3000 square foot lot.

  8. 8
    Macro Investor says:

    By wreckingbull @ 3:

    Baby Boomers who have poorly prepared for retirement (and there are many) have been given a golden opportunity this summer to pull the eject lever and partially mitigate their bad planning. I sincerely hope that many will take advantage of this, but I doubt most will, since real estate is a magic golden goose. I don’t think they will see this opportunity again any time soon.

    People who made bad decisions all their lives will suddenly change in their 60s? LOL.

    It is their civic duty to pay those property taxes so Seattle can be a socialist utopia.

  9. 9
    greg says:

    By Macro Investor @ 8:

    By wreckingbull @ 3:

    Baby Boomers who have poorly prepared for retirement (and there are many) have been given a golden opportunity this summer to pull the eject lever and partially mitigate their bad planning. I sincerely hope that many will take advantage of this, but I doubt most will, since real estate is a magic golden goose. I don’t think they will see this opportunity again any time soon.

    People who made bad decisions all their lives will suddenly change in their 60s? LOL.

    It is their civic duty to pay those property taxes so Seattle can be a socialist utopia.

    Seattle is not in any way shape or form “socialist” or on the path to socialism. Perhaps you should pick up a book or two and learn a little about socialism . our system of taxation is very regressive and grinds folk into poverty.
    Maybe you could spend some time researching WA taxation compared to the rest of the nation and compared to other nations. Do that and you will see middle class (property owners) do great in WA and seattle…

  10. 10
    redmondjp says:

    RE: greg @ 9 – Do you seriously believe that or are you just pfft commenting under a different name?

    Do you also blame Amazon for all of the human feces on Seattle sidewalks?

  11. 11
    uwp says:

    H Q 2 is here
    who even has 2 H Qs
    turn out the lights please

    –a bubble haiku

  12. 12
    wreckingbull says:

    RE: Macro Investor @ 8 – For the most part, yes. I have seen a few have a ‘come to Jesus’ moment when they create their first budget at age 67. I have a couple of extended family members in this camp. It’s rather sad.

  13. 13
    wreckingbull says:

    By greg @ 9:

    Seattle is not in any way shape or form “socialist”

    Really? I think the residents of District 3 might not agree with that statement.

  14. 14
    whatsmyname says:

    Sell into weakness
    Golden opportunity
    There’s always the kids

    -A poor planning boomer haiku

  15. 15

    By ohd1122 @ 1:

    So we have crossed the 4,000 inventory threshold, which some on this forum have said will be a strong indicator of market change. Do people agree? What inventory mark would be “significant”?

    I don’t think it’s a number, I think it’s a ratio. Actives being 2x sales for the month would be much more comfortable for buyers. At the current sales levels that would require over 5,000 units.

    That is not to say that where we are isn’t more comfortable for buyers than where we were a year ago.

    BTW, keep in mind that the warranty deed number Tim reports above is not even close to being only SFR houses. There are condos, vacant lots, commercial, multifamily and probably a few re-recordings of deeds. I suspect the number of SFR sales reported by the NWMLS will be down YOY, but nowhere near 10%

    Some numbers above based on information obtained from NWMLS sources, but not compiled by or guaranteed by the NWMLS.

  16. 16
    Macro Investor says:

    By greg @ 9:

    By Macro Investor @ 8:

    By wreckingbull @ 3:

    Baby Boomers who have poorly prepared for retirement (and there are many) have been given a golden opportunity this summer to pull the eject lever and partially mitigate their bad planning. I sincerely hope that many will take advantage of this, but I doubt most will, since real estate is a magic golden goose. I don’t think they will see this opportunity again any time soon.

    People who made bad decisions all their lives will suddenly change in their 60s? LOL.

    It is their civic duty to pay those property taxes so Seattle can be a socialist utopia.

    Seattle is not in any way shape or form “socialist” or on the path to socialism. Perhaps you should pick up a book or two and learn a little about socialism . our system of taxation is very regressive and grinds folk into poverty.
    Maybe you could spend some time researching WA taxation compared to the rest of the nation and compared to other nations. Do that and you will see middle class (property owners) do great in WA and seattle…

    Love it. How delightfully condescending and drenched in cognitive dissonance. I’ve learned that when someone lashes out in anger, you have won the argument. Thank you.

    Instead of presenting a logical argument, it’s “read a book”. Spoken like a true elitist.

  17. 17
    pedaltothemetal says:

    Time to CRIPER out those organic growth allergies and find yourself a nice moss pit.
    A house made of mold, mushrooms and a little kombucha.
    Bezos make an ideal substrate as well.

  18. 18
    pedaltothemetal says:

    New Seattle housing amenity: “A bezos composter, for the fully organic gardener”

  19. 19
    Macro Investor says:

    RE: pedaltothemetal @ 18

    All virtue signalling progressives aspire to a Seattle composter. And when you want to sell, don’t call an agent. Just say “alexa, beam me outa here”.

  20. 20
    redmondjp says:

    By Macro Investor @ 19:

    RE: pedaltothemetal @ 18

    All virtue signalling progressives aspire to a Seattle composter. And when you want to sell, don’t call an agent. Just say “alexa, beam me outa here”.

    And you already know what the response will be: “I’m sorry Dave, I’m afraid I can’t do that.”

  21. 21
    Matt P says:

    By redmondjp @ 20:

    By Macro Investor @ 19:

    RE: pedaltothemetal @ 18

    All virtue signalling progressives aspire to a Seattle composter. And when you want to sell, don’t call an agent. Just say “alexa, beam me outa here”.

    And you already know what the response will be: “I’m sorry Dave, I’m afraid I can’t do that.”

    Daisy…. Daisy…

  22. 22
    Voight-kampff says:

    I like the New, albeit slightly psychedelic Seattle bubble.
    Ride the snake.

  23. 23
    Macro Investor says:

    Time to be serious about our love for amazon. Everybody knows they have the best employee benefits on the planet. For example, I’ll bet you didn’t know they give employees 20% off on adult diapers. In return for that loyalty, employees gladly work through bathroom breaks.

    Many others cry tears of joy just to be allowed to work at that gorgeous campus.

  24. 24
  25. 25
    QA Observer says:

    The has been a lot of counter arguments on SB about foreign investors not making an impact in the local region, and that assuming such phenomenon is based on anecdotal information.
    I guess CNBC is bold in posting “untrue” news on their cover page.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/02/seattle-housing-market-is-under-pressure-as-chinese-buying-dries-up.html

  26. 27

    By Macro Investor @ 23:

    Time to be serious about our love for amazon. Everybody knows they have the best employee benefits on the planet. For example, I’ll bet you didn’t know they give employees 20% off on adult diapers. In return for that loyalty, employees gladly work through bathroom breaks..

    That wasn’t an employee benefit. That was for the robots. They become confused when they “see” human waste on the floor.

  27. 28
    formerSeattleite says:

    By QA Observer @ 24:

    The has been a lot of counter arguments on SB about foreign investors not making an impact in the local region, and that assuming such phenomenon is based on anecdotal information.
    I guess CNBC is bold in posting “untrue” news on their cover page.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/02/seattle-housing-market-is-under-pressure-as-chinese-buying-dries-up.html

    I was going to say the exact same thing. Long time reader (don’t post much though) — I remember reading so many people saying “chinese buyers? what chinese buyers. you guys are blowing things out of proportion. ” Interesting to see the major media company(ies) pick up on “Chinese buyers in the PNW”…. not to say that CNBC is the most factual media sources though

  28. 29
    formerSeattleite says:

    What “news” is in that article? Point to a specific data point that shows anything at all about what the number (or dollar amount) of foreign buyers was, or what it is now. That information is completely lacking, but that won’t stop that article from being cited by other articles as proof that foreign demand is changing somehow. And that even though that article is even worse than the typical article cited here in that it only quotes a broker or two, and completely fails to mention valuable “webpage views” statistics. /sarc

    What there is in that article is spin to make up a story so that they have something to report, but unfortunately the article can’t even keep the spin consistent. Does the falling Chinese currency hurt or help local sales? At the beginning the claim is it hurts, and then at the end the claim is it may help. It most likely does have an effect, but the problem is we don’t know how much of an effect, and that article certainly doesn’t tell us.

    But hey, this is fun. I’m going to start my own narative on the topic of Chinese buying of US real estate. It was all just a fad. The Chinese when gathering together would sometimes start bragging of their purchases of US real estate, and some being jealous would divert some of their purchases of bitcoin into US real estate. But unfortunately, bragging that you have two or three pieces of real estate doesn’t give you the same marginal increase in enjoyment as bragging that you have your first piece of US real estate, so the demand started lagging. And eventually most everyone had that coveted US real estate holding, so bragging about it was about as exciting as bragging that you had an iPhone. That further hurt demand. Thus purchases of US real estate by foreign Chinese investors is now off 42.386682%

    ok, good point. I didn’t read your post until after I wrote my post above. It would be nice to have heard some actual data and numbers… Otherwise, ya, what’s their source? They could be just regurgitating something someone else told them by word of mouth.

  29. 30
    Notme says:

    Chinese investors
    paying the price of riches
    i am still hungry

    –a bubble haiku

  30. 31
    Notme says:

    Buyers really chinese?
    kary is still skeptical
    show me your papers

    –a bubble haiku

  31. 32
    Notme says:

    millenial true
    UW Prof bubble monger
    solidarity?

    –a bubble haiku, not a bubblemonger haiku

  32. 33

    RE: Macro Investor @ 8
    Clogged Parking Lot Summer Freeways All Week and All Day Long Now

    Mean a couple things possibly:

    More tourists in Seattle, but I see no out of state plates [so unlikely]…

    More likely folks on staycations saving their money for property tax hikes, insurance hikes [automobile too], license plate hikes and ARM payment increases on mortgages, etc, etc…

    I see Ocean Shore Rooms available without reservations….a galore of them too…folks are on budgets lately.

  33. 34

    RE: greg @ 9
    Kansas City Has 1/3 the Property Tax of Kent Lower Tier Home

    With 4 times the lot size and three bedroom SFHs renting out for like $600/mo….property tax decreases too. The puny state income tax added in still makes Seattle far worse. Repair and Service costs are far cheaper there than Seattle….$4500 gets ya a new Central Air, Gas Heater and Thermostat in Kansas, etc, etc….

    I’m a landlord there and can testify.

  34. 35

    RE: Macro Investor @ 23
    Given the Choice

    I’d work for Jack in the Box Now Over Amazon

    About the same pay , 40 hr weeks, flex time and health care….without the stop watch on bathroom breaks. Jack In the Box is hiring too :-)

  35. 36
    Lurker says:

    By Notme @ 31:

    Buyers really chinese?
    kary is still skeptical
    show me your papers

    –a bubble haiku

    I’m dying…

    But in truth, that article lacks substance.

  36. 37
    Notme says:

    RE: formerSeattleite @ 29

    seattle bubble
    posters quoteth in excess
    what’s read already

    — a quoting bubble meta haiku

  37. 38
    Matt P says:

    Haiku are supposed to have a seasonal reference:

    the rains are coming
    will your moss pit hold value?
    better get out now

    — a seasonal pedal bubble haiku

  38. 39
    N says:

    Seattle housing market is under pressure as Chinese buying ‘dries up’

    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/02/seattle-housing-market-is-under-pressure-as-chinese-buying-dries-up.html

    In the Seattle metropolitan area, home prices skyrocketed 45 percent between August 2016 and now, according to Woloshin. On a currency-adjusted basis, for Chinese buyers, they are up 54 percent.

    Stephen Saunders is a managing broker with Coldwell Banker Seattle and works with Chinese investors in the Seattle market. “It’s drying up,” he said. “I just don’t see the same kind of volume. The downtown Seattle condo market has come to a grinding halt, and that’s where Chinese buyers were.”

    “It’s not necessarily the decline in the currency, it is the increasing restrictions on getting money out. It’s just getting tighter and tighter,” he said, adding that the trade war between the U.S. and China is hitting the finances of some of his investor clients. As for Chinese families looking to buy homes for their children in the area, in just the past six to 10 months, “that’s dried up substantially,” he said.

    The e-commerce giant, however, did report its first decline in its number of employees since 2009.

  39. 40
    uwp says:

    RE: N @ 38 – You are the 3rd person to post that article this morning.

    Bears are hungry!

  40. 41
    Deerhawke says:

    For those of you who couldnt read it because you have a popup spam blocker.

    ———

    Seattle housing market is under pressure as Chinese buying ‘dries up’

    Diana Olick | @DianaOlick
    Published 6 Hours Ago Updated 4 Hours Ago
    CNBC.com

    In the last two years, both Chinese investors and families hoping to send their kids to American universities have fueled demand for housing in Seattle, which has long enjoyed a strong Asian culture.
    But the Chinese yuan’s recent fall in value against the U.S. dollar has made housing more expensive for Chinese buyers.

    In the Seattle metropolitan area, home prices skyrocketed 45 percent between August 2016 and now. On a currency-adjusted basis, for Chinese buyers, they are up 54 percent.

    Seattle has been arguably one of the hottest housing markets in America, with home prices rising annually by double digits fueled by scorching demand. There is, however, one outside force that is starting to throw cold water on all that heat: new weakness from once-intense Chinese buyers.

    The Pacific Northwest city has been one of the greatest beneficiaries of the recent wave of Chinese buyers of U.S. real estate. Both Chinese investors and families hoping to send their kids to American universities have fueled demand for housing in Seattle, which has long enjoyed a strong Asian culture.

    In just the last two years, that demand increased dramatically. In 2016, nearby Canadian city Vancouver slapped a 25 percent tax on international homebuyers in an effort to cool its own overheated housing market. Chinese investors, who had been strong in that market, simply moved south of the border to escape the tax.

    “Chinese buyers are flooding into Seattle,” said Jonathan Woloshin of UBS in a 2016 interview.

    But the Chinese yuan’s recent fall in value against the U.S. dollar has made housing more expensive for Chinese buyers. Now, Woloshin said, Seattle could see the opposite of the buying frenzy it had two years ago.

    “I’m not telling you there is going to be a crash in prices, but do I think there is going to be a drop in the rate of increase? yes,” said Woloshin.

    In the Seattle metropolitan area, home prices skyrocketed 45 percent between August 2016 and now, according to Woloshin. On a currency-adjusted basis, for Chinese buyers, they are up 54 percent.

    “The Chinese have a very long time horizon, so if they are buying that home as a second or third home or they’re going to buy it for their child, that’s fair, but the huge run-up in prices, the depreciation in the yuan is going to have an impact,” he added.

    Seattle housing is already cooling. The number of homes for sale in King County (where Seattle resides), shot up 47 percent in May compared with a year ago, according to the Northwest Multiple Listing Service. Pending home sales, which represent signed contracts, dropped nearly 9 percent.

    Stephen Saunders is a managing broker with Coldwell Banker Seattle and works with Chinese investors in the Seattle market. “It’s drying up,” he said. “I just don’t see the same kind of volume. The downtown Seattle condo market has come to a grinding halt, and that’s where Chinese buyers were.”

    Most of his clients are looking for properties in the $1 million to $3 million range, but he said the slowdown in buying is not all about the yuan.

    “It’s not necessarily the decline in the currency, it is the increasing restrictions on getting money out. It’s just getting tighter and tighter,” he said, adding that the trade war between the U.S. and China is hitting the finances of some of his investor clients. As for Chinese families looking to buy homes for their children in the area, in just the past six to 10 months, “that’s dried up substantially,” he said.

    Despite the increase in the supply of Seattle homes for sale, inventory is still incredibly low at barely two months’ worth, based on the level of sales. This is the same trend throughout the West, where overheated home prices have caused buyers to pull back.

    “Although signs of an inventory turnaround are encouraging, whether they mean good news for buyers remains to be seen,” wrote Danielle Hale, chief economist at Realtor.com, in a release. “But high prices and fast-selling homes are causing some buyer hesitation which is reflected in fewer home sales.”

    The Seattle housing market has benefited enormously from the region’s largest employer, Amazon. While there was concern earlier this year that a local “head tax” on employers would cause a hiring slowdown, that tax was quickly repealed after enormous pressure from Amazon.

    The e-commerce giant, however, did report its first decline in its number of employees since 2009.

    After strong hiring throughout the first half of 2017, job postings for open positions at Amazon headquarters dropped sharply last December, according to a report from The Seattle Times. Amazon is also planning to open a second headquarters, commonly called HQ2, although it has yet to announce the location. It currently employs more than 40,000 workers at its Seattle headquarters, according to quarterly filings.

    Hiring shifts in Amazon’s home market would certainly affect local housing. The Seattle area, however, is also home to Microsoft and other tech companies.

    “I think it will slow down,” said Skylar Olsen, chief economist at Seattle-based Zillow. “Amazon is certainly a huge player, but they were a catalyst that started a lot of growth in tech. It wasn’t just Amazon that was booming local neighborhoods, it was other start-up players.”

    On the other hand, Olsen said she actually thinks the devaluation of the yuan could spur homebuying in Seattle.

    “If they’re investment buyers in the first place, then really you just move down in your price point, but you’re still really interested in the rate of return. If you expect the yuan to continue to drop, then you have every reason to buy an asset that’s not valued in yuan,” she added.

  41. 42
    Notme says:

    RE: Matt P @ 38

    I know, but Seattle has only two seasons: Rainy and mossy. Can’t be too purist about these things. Enjoyed your contribution.

  42. 43
    N says:

    @ uwp 40 – Oops, I didn’t realize it had been posted already. Your comment sums up this forum as of lately well (re: “Bears are hungry”)- bears and bulls trying to prove their point or ignore evidence they don’t like.

    I wasn’t really taking a side, just found some of the quotes from those who work with Chinese buyers as potentially relevant to the overall story of what is impacting the market. It’s too bad there isn’t a little more open minded discussion of actual reported facts instead of sticking to whatever agenda one has.

  43. 44
    Matt P says:

    Days growing shorter
    Sellers crowding the exits
    Could this be the end?

    — a prematurely bearish Seattle bubble haiku

  44. 45
  45. 46
    Deerhawke says:

    There is no way to get conclusive data on this topic. The MLS does not have a box you check for Chinese buyers.

    Any good article on the topic will necessarily be based on opinion. You should have three or four opinion leaders quoted and their bonifides should be quantified or specified in some way.

    Is your source an academic who has written X peer-reviewed papers on Chinese investment in the Northwest? Is your source the head of the US-China Business Council? Is your source a broker who speaks Chinese and did XX deals with Chinese buyers over the past YY months? Is your source a condo listing agent who last year listed XX condos and sold YY of them to Chinese buyers?

    Journalism pays so little these days that you get 23 year olds journalists and 27 year old editors. Back in the day you would have had a 30 year old journalist who would have known the ropes and would never have tried to pass half baked things in front of his 45 year old editor. What we have here is a story idea not a story.

  46. 47
    Matt P says:

    Fed unwinds QE
    Liquidity disappears
    Leaves begin to change

    — a Seattle changing bubble haiku

    https://wolfstreet.com/2018/08/03/fed-accelerates-qe-unwind-balance-sheet-normalization/

  47. 48
    Notme says:

    RE: Lurker @ 36

    mossy poet brave
    groupies promised, where art thou?
    cold wet lonesome nights

    –a personal haiku

  48. 49

    By formerSeattleite @ 29:

    ok, good point. I didn’t read your post until after I wrote my post above. It would be nice to have heard some actual data and numbers… Otherwise, ya, what’s their source? They could be just regurgitating something someone else told them by word of mouth.

    And that is a problem with 100% of the reporting on this topic. It’s all 100% B.S. because there are no statistics available–no one keeps them.

  49. 50

    By N @ 43:

    I wasn’t really taking a side, just found some of the quotes from those who work with Chinese buyers as potentially relevant to the overall story of what is impacting the market.

    There’s a reason why that type of evidence is considered unreliable. There was one of the worst months in NWMLS sales history where we were rather busy. If someone had asked me what the market was like at that point in time I would have said great if I was just basing my answer on our own level of business.

  50. 51

    By Deerhawke @ 46:

    Journalism pays so little these days that you get 23 year olds journalists and 27 year old editors. Back in the day you would have had a 30 year old journalist who would have known the ropes and would never have tried to pass half baked things in front of his 45 year old editor. What we have here is a story idea not a story.

    Which fits with the reason I posted the link earlier this week to the story which appeared in Realtormag.com and then was picked up by other sources. You had a inexperienced person closing a house transaction sometime within the past five years and then they become a finance reporter at some point and write an entire article of ignorant stuff–like: Hey, I wish I’d known that an FHA loan won’t allow you to due rehab work unless you get an FHA rehab loan–something true of virtually any type of loan short of hard money.

  51. 52
    SoftwareMillennial says:

    It seems unlikely that we’ll ever collect public stats on foreign buyers and their impact on the housing market. This is exactly as the real estate industry wants it to be. Why would the real estate industry want to collect info that might enrage the public about foreign manipulation of housing prices? Better not to collect this data, and paint anyone who brings it up as a paranoid xenophobe.

  52. 53
    Macro Investor says:

    By softwarengineer @ 34:

    RE: greg @ 9
    Kansas City Has 1/3 the Property Tax of Kent Lower Tier Home

    Not a fair comparison, software. Seattle has high taxes because we feel a moral obligation to take care of needy individuals. KC probably forces their homeless population to park RVs and vans all over the city. It is inhumane to do this, which is why our taxpayers gladly contribute much more.

    KC probably doesn’t have the great schools that our higher taxes provide. Also, let’s not forget the world class bus and light rail systems. Now that I remember all these benefits, I wish gov’t would raise them even higher so we can continue to out shine other cities. Income tax now, please.

  53. 54
    Macro Investor says:

    By SoftwareMillennial @ 52:

    It seems unlikely that we’ll ever collect public stats on foreign buyers and their impact on the housing market. This is exactly as the real estate industry wants it to be. Why would the real estate industry want to collect info that might enrage the public about foreign manipulation of housing prices? Better not to collect this data, and paint anyone who brings it up as a paranoid xenophobe.

    The real estate cartel is in business to make money. As much as they possibly can. Nothing wrong with that, of course. That money can only come from us, when we buy a property. They get a percent of sales, which means the higher the price, the more for them. How would tracking foreign sales make them more money? Answer, it wouldn’t. It’s just more work, which is a cost.

    Health insurance companies make a percent of sales too. So they love seeing higher and higher prices every year.

  54. 55

    By SoftwareMillennial @ 52:

    It seems unlikely that we’ll ever collect public stats on foreign buyers and their impact on the housing market. .

    I’m pretty sure federal law prevents discriminating against such buyers, and for that reason no one in a position to do so is going to want to collect such data for fear the feds will ask why! Beyond that, I don’t know who would be in a position to track such data. There are multiple title and escrow companies, multiple real estate companies, etc. None would have a complete picture even if they gathered the data.

    But imagine if a landlord started asking persons calling for an apartment what race they were, or even noted that on their completed rental agreements. In a future case regarding alleged discrimination the feds would undoubtedly say: “And they were even tracking the racial backgrounds of their tenants!” For that reason there would be no data even if someone was in a position to gather it.

  55. 56

    By Macro Investor @ 53:

    By softwarengineer @ 34:

    RE: greg @ 9
    Kansas City Has 1/3 the Property Tax of Kent Lower Tier Home

    Not a fair comparison, software. Seattle has high taxes because we feel a moral obligation to take care of needy individuals. KC probably forces their homeless population to park RVs and vans all over the city. It is inhumane to do this, which is why our taxpayers gladly contribute much more.

    KC probably doesn’t have the great schools that our higher taxes provide. Also, let’s not forget the world class bus and light rail systems. Now that I remember all these benefits, I wish gov’t would raise them even higher so we can continue to out shine other cities. Income tax now, please.

    You forgot to mention that the income tax is necessary because there have been numerous press reports written by 24-year-old reporters proving that our tax system is regressive!

  56. 57
    Longtime Listener First Time Caller says:

    There are 56 posts on this thread. Kary has posted 8 times. To date, one 7th of this message board is his. If we did a word count, I’m sure he represents an even greater claim to space on this board.

    Indeed things are not trending well for real estate on Seattle Bubble.

  57. 58

    RE: Longtime Listener First Time Caller @ 57 – Rather obviously you are someone who cannot read very quickly and/or cannot type very quickly if you think this activity takes up a lot of my time. Actually, why not just state AND rather than giving you the benefit of the doubt with and/or. Must suck to be you. Probably your computer screen is all smeared up with fingerprints as you point to read.

    But in the unlikely event you have an intelligent comment to make regarding something I’ve posted, have at it.

  58. 59
    The Tim says:

    I don’t know who started this business with the haiku but I love it.

  59. 60
    Matt P says:

    the Tim loves haiku
    bubbles know not the season
    the posts continue

    — a Seattle buuble haiku

  60. 61
    Matt P says:

    Kary is prolix
    Longtime is apoplectic
    time marches onward

    — a post haiku

  61. 62
    KillianM says:

    Was the website down earlier?

  62. 63
    The Tim says:

    RE: KillianM @ 62 – Depends what you mean “earlier.” I did some server upgrades overnight and earlier this morning I was working out a few kinks related to that, but for most of today the site has been available.

    The biggest issue was if you just typed “seattlebubble.com” into your browser it was throwing an error, but if you went to “seattlebubble.com/blog” it was working fine.

  63. 64
    pfft says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 56:

    By Macro Investor @ 53:

    By softwarengineer @ 34:

    RE: greg @ 9
    Kansas City Has 1/3 the Property Tax of Kent Lower Tier Home

    Not a fair comparison, software. Seattle has high taxes because we feel a moral obligation to take care of needy individuals. KC probably forces their homeless population to park RVs and vans all over the city. It is inhumane to do this, which is why our taxpayers gladly contribute much more.

    KC probably doesn’t have the great schools that our higher taxes provide. Also, let’s not forget the world class bus and light rail systems. Now that I remember all these benefits, I wish gov’t would raise them even higher so we can continue to out shine other cities. Income tax now, please.

    You forgot to mention that the income tax is necessary because there have been numerous press reports written by 24-year-old reporters proving that our tax system is regressive!

    see now you are lying. those reports are put out by think tank type groups.

    “to employ one’s mind rationally and objectively in evaluating or dealing with a given situation”

  64. 65
    Macro Investor says:

    It would be nice if Ray Pepper stopped by again. I doubt this tiny blip in listings has any significance. He was the only agent who seemed to have an overall understanding of market conditions. Whether there is value to be found anywhere, what is selling and what isn’t, emerging trends, etc. The perspective of an investor who finds value and rents to hold.

    He bought a ton of properties at the market bottom and is probably living in luxury now.

  65. 66
    Drone says:

    RE: Macro Investor @ 65 – If I recall correctly, Ray Pepper has unfortunately passed away. I’d like to think he’s living in luxury though.

  66. 67
    wreckingbull says:

    RE: Drone @ 66 – Are you sure you are not thinking of David Losh?

  67. 68
    Macro Investor says:

    RE: wreckingbull @ 67

    That’s what I thought too. Ray wrote something that I consider a life lesson. He said he wouldn’t take many condos for free, because the HOA fees alone would make them cash flow negative.

    I know some of the autists here would debate that on semantics, but it’s an important point for investors. You don’t want to pay a high price for something with a low yield, plus lots of work and stress for you.

  68. 69
    Notme says:

    RE: The Tim @ 59

    Thanks, Tim, I am very happy that you like it. It was Notme that started it. I had a moment of inspiration. Previous thread is where it got going first :-).

    I would like to thank Pedaltothemetal for providing some of the inspiration that caused this to happen.

  69. 70
    pedaltothemetal says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 55

    “Foreign Buyer” is a passport or visa.

  70. 71
    pedaltothemetal says:

    Buy the dip! Find a moss pit that sags and bags.

  71. 72
    Justme says:

    RE: The Tim @ 63

    @The Tim, it looks like the estately data collection has been a bit glitchy today as well, with some empty data fields. In fact as late as 18:00 the KC/SFH data field is empty again. May need attention.

    I have some modulo-3-hour data that I have been collecting myself, but it is not exactly on the hour (just worried they will block me I guess :)). You can have it later if you want it, but probably not tonight.

  72. 73
    pedaltothemetal says:

    Is there a “Baby Boomer looking for Asian Foreigner” topic in the SB forums?

  73. 74
    pedaltothemetal says:

    “Baby Boomer looking for young Seattlite who likes to shine balls”

  74. 75
    ARDELL DellaLoggia says:

    RE: Drone @ 66

    Ray is alive and well.

  75. 76
    pedaltothemetal says:

    “Baby Boomer looking for young Seattlite who likes to pay high & have low rates of return”

  76. 77
  77. 78
    David says:

    In the last half hour – a Seattle realtor has told me that an Amazon couple, who went dark for a while, have just re-emerged and bought a house. That is good, but she admitted she noticed they ALL went dark at Amazon for about 3 months.

    Who knows if one couple means anything in re Amazon. Amazon’s head count has indeed gone down in Seattle.

    How can a company with MANY existing offices ALREADY now, have an HQ2 that doesn’t drain Seattle HQ??????

    This realtor is pissed at the leftist politics in Seattle. Maybe Seattle voters will kick out the whack-o-birds on the Council?

  78. 79
    Rupert D says:

    RE: David @ 78
    Could a reader who is an Amazon employee speak up about the scuttlebut around the campus as to employment trends and what they think will happen when HQ2 is built. Does Bezos wife like Seattle, where is she from? I know he has been a long term fan of a restuarant on Lake Union? Is being a foodie enough to keep Bezos and Amazon in Seattle? Come on Amazonians do your civic duty and speak up!

  79. 80
    kenmorem says:

    chinese investments, go to the 43 minute mark:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o–FmUXHPKE

  80. 81
    The Tim says:

    RE: Justme @ 72 – Thanks for the heads up. I thought I fixed that earlier today but apparently one of the settings changes I made didn’t “stick.” I think I’ve fixed it for good now. Hopefully. Guess I’ll find out in the morning.

    [Morning edit: Looks like it’s working fine now, thankfully.]

  81. 82
    Drone says:

    By ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 75:

    RE: Drone @ 66

    Ray is alive and well.

    Very happy to be wrong here. Thanks Ardell.

  82. 83
    Blurtman says:

    The unspeakable truth. Why Seattle is such a popular destination.

    With climate change, it will become the new San Diego. Just don’t buy too close to the water.

  83. 84

    RE: Rupert D @ 79
    I’m Not An Amazon Employee, But Amazon Hit the World News Today

    With its new employee directing goggles you get directions and orders….but it also tracks and records your every move [sound too?]. Its not just bathroom break stop watches, now its GPS/Video like monitoring of all employees….

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-6020525/Amazon-sparks-privacy-concerns-patent-reveals-employee-surveillance-AR-goggles.html

    The ACLU is too busy working for America’s illegal aliens to take on Amazon?

  84. 85

    By pfft @ 64:

    see now you are lying. those reports [indicating WA’s tax system is the most regressive] are put out by think tank type groups.

    Oh, wow, a think tank. Those are all clearly unbiased! ROTFLMAO

    Those reports come to the conclusion they do by allocating rent paid by landlords to tenants. Stated differently, they come to the conclusion by having tenants pay taxes which they don’t pay.

    You can argue that taxes are passed through, but that is a false ignorant argument, best demonstrated by the fact that most of King County and Seattle in particular had huge increases in real estate taxes this year, but rent increases moderated or even declined. During the years rents were skyrocketing RE taxes were relatively stable (ignoring the impact that increased rents would have on value.) Anyone who thinks expenses are always passed along does not understand either economics or business.

    But I won’t respond by saying you’re lying. For you to lie you’d need to understand a topic, and that’s too long of a stretch.

  85. 86

    By Macro Investor @ 65:

    It would be nice if Ray Pepper stopped by again. I doubt this tiny blip in listings has any significance. He was the only agent who seemed to have an overall understanding of market conditions. Whether there is value to be found anywhere, what is selling and what isn’t, emerging trends, etc. The perspective of an investor who finds value and rents to hold.

    He bought a ton of properties at the market bottom and is probably living in luxury now.

    LOL. That’s funny. Love the deadpan.

  86. 87

    By Drone @ 66:

    RE: Macro Investor @ 65 – If I recall correctly, Ray Pepper has unfortunately passed away. I’d like to think he’s living in luxury though.

    I think you’re confusing David Losh. Ray still has a presence on the NWMLS, but I haven’t seen him for a long time on Facebook.

  87. 88

    By The Tim @ 81:

    RE: Justme @ 72 – Thanks for the heads up. I thought I fixed that earlier today but apparently one of the settings changes I made didn’t “stick.” I think I’ve fixed it for good now. Hopefully. Guess I’ll find out in the morning.

    Tim, I’m still having the issue where the name/email/website information doesn’t stick after posting using both IE and Chrome.

    Is that happening for anyone else?

  88. 89

    We focus a lot on Seattle, but here’s some news related to Bremerton. By way of background, the military used to have a number of shipyards, but now I think they may be down to just two or three, and they’re getting backed up. This story is about dismantling the USS Enterprise, which logically would be done at Bremerton, but that could delay other projects. Apparently there are ships sitting around unused waiting for maintenance. Seemingly the cost-cutting hasn’t lead to good results.

    http://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/22607/the-navy-could-need-more-than-15-years-and-over-1-5b-to-scrap-uss-enterprise

    When you have a one-employer city like Bremerton, this is good news.

  89. 90
    pfft says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 85:

    By pfft @ 64:

    see now you are lying. those reports [indicating WA’s tax system is the most regressive] are put out by think tank type groups.

    Oh, wow, a think tank. Those are all clearly unbiased! ROTFLMAO

    Those reports come to the conclusion they do by allocating rent paid by landlords to tenants. Stated differently, they come to the conclusion by having tenants pay taxes which they don’t pay.

    You can argue that taxes are passed through, but that is a false ignorant argument,

    LOL. you proved my point. next.

    You argue that minimum wage gets passed through but tax increases AREN’T passed through. You basically argue whatever is convenient at the time(which all republicans do) even if it contradicts you. you know what that means? it means you have a pre-drawn conclusion and don’t think things through logically in any way that takes the big picture into view.

    I feel like I should accuse you of having a bad memory for some reason too.

  90. 91
    pfft says:

    By Blurtman @ 83:

    The unspeakable truth. Why Seattle is such a popular destination.

    With climate change, it will become the new San Diego. Just don’t buy too close to the water.

    I’ve said it before, climate change is a real estate story. It’s probably the only thing that will get republicans to act.

    Sea level rise has caused $7.4 billion drop in home prices in Southeast US
    https://www.treehugger.com/climate-change/sea-level-rise-has-caused-74-billion-drop-home-prices-southeast-us.html

  91. 92
    Macro Investor says:

    Did anyone else notice Pfft went away after the last election? I guessed that would happen, because there would no longer be any purpose to posting tired out political propaganda on every thread. Now, in another election year, he’s made his triumphant comeback… like a disease that won’t go away.

    He/it is obviously a paid troll. I say “it” because such poor writing suggests a bot.

  92. 93
    pfft says:

    By Macro Investor @ 92:

    Did anyone else notice Pfft went away after the last election? I guessed that would happen, because there would no longer be any purpose to posting tired out political propaganda on every thread. Now, in another election year, he’s made his triumphant comeback… like a disease that won’t go away.

    He/it is obviously a paid troll. I say “it” because such poor writing suggests a bot.

    I’ve been here since like 2009…

    I post RE stuff. people mostly ignore it and if someone posts political stuff I don’t ignore it. Most people only seem to respond to my political posts. Even then I am usually just countering some non-sense.

    “such poor writing suggests a bot.”

    That hurt dude.

    “Now, in another election year, he’s made his triumphant comeback…like a disease that won’t go away.”

    I fixed your sentence. You double spaced after the 3 periods.

  93. 94

    By pfft @ 90:

    You argue that minimum wage gets passed through but tax increases AREN’T passed through. You basically argue whatever is convenient at the time(which all republicans do) even if it contradicts you. .

    I’m not sure I’ve ever argued minimum wage gets passed through. Link please. What I have said is that they result in lower employment as employers react–if it’s a significant change as opposed to just catching up with inflation.

    What I have said is what costs get passed through depends on the particular market. So for example, I’ve said that in some markets gas taxes get passed on and in others they don’t. I’ve said that repeatedly. If you didn’t have a memory problem you would remember that. If you had some minimal knowledge of economics and/or business you’d understand that.

  94. 95

    By Macro Investor @ 92:

    He/it is obviously a paid troll. I say “it” because such poor writing suggests a bot.

    Bots don’t have severe memory problems. If they can’t learn it would be obvious they are a bot.

    Oh, wait . . ..

  95. 96
    pfft says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 94:

    By pfft @ 90:

    You argue that minimum wage gets passed through but tax increases AREN’T passed through. You basically argue whatever is convenient at the time(which all republicans do) even if it contradicts you. .

    I’m not sure I’ve ever argued minimum wage gets passed through. Link please.

    Yes, in the form of job losses.

    Others have argued that and that restaurant owners raise prices.

    I couldn’t quickly find any good studies on how much property taxes are paid by renters through higher rents but I bet it’s like 60% or more is paid by renters.

    In my googling I found out that landlords got a big tax break that is probably why rents haven’t risen. You are the sole source that has said rents haven’t risen so I won’t believe that until I see a link. Landlords may just say my property has increased in value a lot so I just won’t raise rents this year. Next year could be a different story.

  96. 97

    By pfft @ 96:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 94:

    By pfft @ 90:

    You argue that minimum wage gets passed through but tax increases AREN’T passed through. You basically argue whatever is convenient at the time(which all republicans do) even if it contradicts you. .

    I’m not sure I’ve ever argued minimum wage gets passed through. Link please.

    Yes, in the form of job losses.

    Others have argued that and that restaurant owners raise prices.

    I couldn’t quickly find any good studies on how much property taxes are paid by renters through higher rents but I bet it’s like 60% or more is paid by renters..

    I’m sorry, but I don’t really have time to explain to you how the world works. But rents were not rising rapidly in Seattle due to higher landlord costs. House prices haven’t been rising in Seattle due to the cost of maintaining houses. Go take a course in economics and quit wasting everyone’s time.

  97. 98
    David says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 85:

    Certain parts are reeeealllly stretched out.

    By pfft @ 64:

    and that’s too long of a stretch.

  98. 99
    pfft says:

    By David @ 98:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 85:

    Certain parts are reeeealllly stretched out.

    By pfft @ 64:

    and that’s too long of a stretch.

    I am sorry david, was that directed at me? Better not be.

  99. 100

    RE: pfft @ 99 – Ironic, you respond to a post that was clearly indicating that you don’t understand things by failing to understand. ROTFMAO again!

    Well at least we know why you can’t understand complex topics. Even simple things go over your head.

  100. 101
    GoHawks! says:

    More childish, presidential twitter or Seattle Bubble?

    “Well at least we know why you can’t understand complex topics. Even simple things go over your head.”

    It’s like kindergarten without the snack time.

  101. 102
    whatsmyname says:

    Seattle Bubble
    Not sending their best posters
    Words from Norway please?

  102. 103

    RE: GoHawks! @ 101 – I’ll admit, I do like to sometimes troll the trolls. In particular I like to point out their lack of intelligence and when I do I generally back it up with fact, such as that one where I pointed out how the obvious the topic of discussion was pfft. Unfortunately that doesn’t stop some of them from posting–pfft/greg being the worst offender here.

    But hey, he called me a liar in post 65 above and I called him on that in post 85. Then he had to back off that claim because it wasn’t true. But in post 98 David commented on my post 85 comment and then in post 99 pfft couldn’t figure out that pertained to him. So do we really need to hear what pfft thinks about Obamacare or minimum wage? Those are complex topics, and if we want to know what he “thinks” we could just Google virtually any Democrat’s webpage since all he does is post Democratic party talking points.

    That’s my point in a longer form–but just the prior comment was sufficient to make that point.

  103. 104
    whatsmyname says:

    Leakers are traitors
    Melania slaps hand hard
    caught is So Unfair

  104. 105
    David says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 103

    Once he got onto Transgender Toddler rights – I was certain something was wrong. A true Seattle-man: a marshmallow center, p-hat wearing, Obama-loving cuckold who has not the slightest idea why Obama would hire this guy to paint his portrait:

    https://truepundit.com/obama-portrait-artist-likes-paint-african-american-women-holding-heads-decapitated-white-women/

  105. 106
    wreckingbull says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 103 – Things were actually pretty decent around here until his post-Trump return. The irony is that his username is an onomatopoeia for a silent but deadly, but his comments are really just loud and impotent.

  106. 107
    sfrz says:

    RE: pfft @ 96 – Great read. There has been no recovery. We are still in the 2008 crisis, just disguised. All going as planned. Blackstone is ready, like a swarm of locusts, to grab more. Wash, rinse, repeat, until we are all serfs. “The largest element of fakery is a category that is imputed – that is, made up – for rising rents that homeowners would have to pay if they had to rent their houses from themselves. That’s about 6 percent of GDP right there. Right now, as a result of the 10 million foreclosures that Obama imposed on the economy by not writing down the junk mortgage debts to realistic values, companies like Blackstone have come in and bought up many of the properties that were forfeited. So now there are fewer homes that are available to buy. Rents are going up all over the country. Homeownership has dropped by abut 10 percent since 2008, and that means more people have to rent. When more people have to rent, the rents go up. And when rents go up, people lucky enough to have kept their homes report these rising rental values to the GDP statisticians.” https://www.counterpunch.org/2018/08/03/the-next-financial-crisis/

  107. 108

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 103

    From his (I used to think it was a her) comment above “I post RE stuff. people mostly ignore it and if someone posts political stuff I don’t ignore it. Most people only seem to respond to my political posts.”

    Pretty much the textbook definition of a troll to post in a way that provokes and gains them attention. Unusual for a troll to flat out admit that they are changing topic to induce a bigger spotlight on themselves, as they were ignored when being on topic. That proves the intent is to be paid attention to and not ignored, and the content is of no importance to them. It is simply to invoke a response from you. Try not to accommodate that.

    While it may give you a chuckle, it is best not to feed the trolls especially when the comment is off topic. I know you delight in calling people out on “stupid”, but in this case likely best for you to hang back on direct responses.

    The funny thing is he/she would be one of the first to hate “Russian Interference” but what he/she is doing is exactly what Russia might hire him/her to do. :) A troll is a troll whether they are paid by Russia or not.

  108. 109
    David says:

    RUSSIA was irrelevant to ANYTHING! Show me even one thing from Russia you interacted with.

    This is like complaining about one water drop during a rainstorm.

    The USA has seriously interfered in Russian elections for 100 years.

  109. 110
    Blurtman says:

    RE: David @ 109 – It is absolute madness, an indicator of the deranged and low-bandwidth. Of course we do the same or worse. And let’s jail that Red commie Jimmy Carter, while we are at it.

    Should Jimmy Carter Be Indicted for Russia Collusion?

    https://spectator.org/should-jimmy-carter-be-indicted-for-russia-collusion/

  110. 111

    RE: SoftwareMillennial @ 52
    Yes SoftwareMilennial

    The Tariff Free trade mandates are bringing lots of issues to the table I was not aware before:

    American Farmers [approx 2% of the workforce] export a lions share of food to countries like Canada, Japan and China….yet require the American taxpayer to support global demands for food by MASSIVELY increasing H-2C [green cards for foreign farm workers at cheaper wage rates] into America. This simply means the American taxpayer foots the MASSIVE social costs for the H-2Cs [that never leave BTW] so farmers can sell outside America too….and if this isn’t bad enough, the price of American food goes up [like pigs] because the supply is limited because of global marketing on a trade deficit.

    Wonderful isn’t it….no wonder I just figured it out now, its a complete mess….and the MSM didn’t clarify how tariffs affect the deficit, nor did it clarify that if food supply goes up due to lack of exports, American grocery store prices go down….its that simple. Do I care if Canada and China pay less for food if I pay more? Hades no. I want cheaper food, so does all Americans [except the farmers].

  111. 112
    Paulie says:

    By David @ 105:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 103

    Once he got onto Transgender Toddler rights – I was certain something was wrong. A true Seattle-man: a marshmallow center, p-hat wearing, Obama-loving cuckold who has not the slightest idea why Obama would hire this guy to paint his portrait:

    https://truepundit.com/obama-portrait-artist-likes-paint-african-american-women-holding-heads-decapitated-white-women/

    This is the second time you have brought this wholly irrelevant link to an artist’s works into the forums. Your dog whistle has been heard and ignored before. I hope Tim bans your IP, not because of your political tirades on this board in which you label people with opposing views as cuckolds or try to stoke racial discord with outdated bits of trivia, but mostly because you haven’t provided a legitimate piece of commentary on real estate for months. I support Trump and Obama roughly equally as a patriot, so don’t construe this as political bias. I just find you adding to the noise instead of contributing insight. You sir are making all of is dumber.

  112. 113

    RE: Blurtman @ 110
    LOL Blurtman

    Since everyone in Washington DC colludes/dines/drinks/socializes with the Russians simultaneously/similarly…they changed the term “colludes” to “possible anarchy”, so we can take it seriously now?

    I read Lyndon Johnson once called African Americans the “N” word….lock him up with Carter? LOL

    How about Nixon colluding with the Chinese ping pong spies? Its good he was impeached?

    Hillary made a joke with the Russians holding a “reset button” for collusion too? Mueller has lots to dump in prison now…

  113. 114

    RE: Paulie @ 112
    Perhaps Its the Horrifying Heat Waves Hitting Lately All Over the World

    Its making us understandably short tempered and confused? I see Seattle’s new heat wave ends perhaps this Friday….good gosh….four more late afternoons this week when the heat exceeds 84 degrees inside our homes left [unless you got costly central air or a basement to hide in]….I hope my portable air conditioner doesn’t go on the blink, its the only way I sleep nights. I see its gonna be like 85-87 degrees outside at 8PM tonight….simply horrifying. (90-100 degrees highs through Thursday?).

  114. 115

    RE: David @ 109
    Doug I beg to Differ

    I heard it on MSM it must be true. Russians do the lion’s share of attempted interference [Hacks] into America’s elections….what data did they use? Hades if I know [MSM never tells us that], but they can track hacker sources through imprints left [whatever that means] and hacking can be done without leaving imprint evidence too [whatever that means too]….I’m sure our intelligence agencies know what they’re doing…trust ’em?

    Sounds like that old song “counting flowers on the wall and playing solitaire ’til dawn with a deck of 51….but don’t tell me ya got nothing to do…”
    BTW….that old song is hard to find…

  115. 116

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 95
    We’re a Long Way From AI and Robots Kary

    If my X1 TV voice commander is any indication of how well the Bots understand speech [like only half the words are understood]….or reading hand written numbers on checks on cash machines deposits….a very long way Kary.

  116. 117
    David says:

    By Paulie @ 112:

    By David @ 105:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 103

    Once he got onto Transgender Toddler rights – I was certain something was wrong. A true Seattle-man: a marshmallow center, p-hat wearing, Obama-loving cuckold who has not the slightest idea why Obama would hire this guy to paint his portrait:

    https://truepundit.com/obama-portrait-artist-likes-paint-african-american-women-holding-heads-decapitated-white-women/

    This is the second time you have brought this wholly irrelevant link to an artist’s works into the forums. Your dog whistle has been heard and ignored before. I hope Tim bans your IP, not because of your political tirades on this board in which you label people with opposing views as cuckolds or try to stoke racial discord with outdated bits of trivia, but mostly because you haven’t provided a legitimate piece of commentary on real estate for months. I support Trump and Obama roughly equally as a patriot, so don’t construe this as political bias. I just find you adding to the noise instead of contributing insight. You sir are making all of is dumber.

    Maybe pfft will let you know which stall he’s in.

  117. 118
    David says:

    By Paulie @ 112:

    By David @ 105:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 103

    Once he got onto Transgender Toddler rights – I was certain something was wrong. A true Seattle-man: a marshmallow center, p-hat wearing, Obama-loving cuckold who has not the slightest idea why Obama would hire this guy to paint his portrait:

    https://truepundit.com/obama-portrait-artist-likes-paint-african-american-women-holding-heads-decapitated-white-women/

    This is the second time you have brought this wholly irrelevant link to an artist’s works into the forums. Your dog whistle has been heard and ignored before. I hope Tim bans your IP, not because of your political tirades on this board in which you label people with opposing views as cuckolds or try to stoke racial discord with outdated bits of trivia, but mostly because you haven’t provided a legitimate piece of commentary on real estate for months. I support Trump and Obama roughly equally as a patriot, so don’t construe this as political bias. I just find you adding to the noise instead of contributing insight. You sir are making all of is dumber.

    Maybe pfft will let you know which stall he’s in. Good luck.

  118. 119
    David says:

    Still only two Amazon purchases heard of recently.

  119. 120
    whatsmyname says:

    northwest M L S
    prints numbers I don’t care for
    bad, phony, fake news

  120. 121
    whatsmyname says:

    Russian meddle fine;
    we did it first; Implying,
    our meddle not fine

    – a confused loyalties haiku

  121. 122

    By ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 108:

    While it may give you a chuckle, it is best not to feed the trolls especially when the comment is off topic. I know you delight in calling people out on “stupid”, but in this case likely best for you to hang back on direct responses.

    I’m well aware of the concept of not feeding the troll, and wish I could do better. It occurred to me last week though that Seattle Bubble allows for a release that we can’t get practicing real estate. If the opposing agent, escrow agent or lender is a complete idiot, you still have to be nice to them because it’s in your client’s interest. And even once the transaction is closed you don’t know you won’t run into them on a transaction for another client (although I do keep lists to hopefully avoid such things). Because of that, I can’t even mention the fact pattern that set me off recently, because I might need to deal with that agent/escrow/lender (I’m not specifying) again. But it is possible pfft/greg gets more response from me when I’m holding back on those other less than competent “professionals” that exist in the real estate arena. Those situations can be very frustrating even when most the harm from the incompetence is to the other side (who typically picked the incompetent “professional.”)

  122. 123

    By softwarengineer @ 116:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 95
    We’re a Long Way From AI and Robots Kary

    If my X1 TV voice commander is any indication of how well the Bots understand speech [like only half the words are understood]….or reading hand written numbers on checks on cash machines deposits….a very long way Kary.

    Part of that is voice recognition difficulties. Remember IBM’s Watson on Jeopardy? I’m pretty sure it got the questions via text not sound. This site is via text too. That simplifies things greatly.

  123. 124
    Macro Investor says:

    Lots of great comments here, improving my knowledge of real estate. I’m glad it’s not just the tired back and forth political rants seen on so many other sites.

    No, YOU’RE a poo poo head. MOM!!!

  124. 125
    🦑 says:

    A treasonous path
    followed blindly in darkness
    Justice waits at end

  125. 126
    Scott says:

    never posted here
    infantile comments
    i’d rather not help

  126. 127
    Travis says:

    Tim – the great failing of the internet is, alas at your doorstep. Microphones are not meant for all to use and I hope you limit the abilities of some of the childish, foolish, and misinformed posters above. Your blog deserves better.

    -my first post

  127. 128
    Matt P says:

    By softwarengineer @ 114:

    RE: Paulie @ 112
    Perhaps Its the Horrifying Heat Waves Hitting Lately All Over the World

    Its making us understandably short tempered and confused? I see Seattle’s new heat wave ends perhaps this Friday….good gosh….four more late afternoons this week when the heat exceeds 84 degrees inside our homes left [unless you got costly central air or a basement to hide in]….I hope my portable air conditioner doesn’t go on the blink, its the only way I sleep nights. I see its gonna be like 85-87 degrees outside at 8PM tonight….simply horrifying. (90-100 degrees highs through Thursday?).

    It’s not hard to keep your house cool all day. At night, open up all the windows you can and place a box fan on one side of the house blowing in and on the other blowing out – blowing out on he 2nd floor if you have more than 1 story. In the morning, close up all the windows, close the blinds and close your curtains – blackout curtains work best. Wear warm clothing in the morning and remove throughout the day. If you start the day in shorts and a t-shirt, you won’t be happy with the 20 degree change in temperature.

    You’ll hit 80 at the worst by the end of the day when it gets cool enough to open the windows again. It’s not worth it installing an AC for the few days out of the year it’s actually needed.

  128. 129
    formerSeattleite says:

    By Notme @ 31:

    Buyers really chinese?
    kary is still skeptical
    show me your papers

    –a bubble haiku

    THAT..is hialrious.. keep em coming. I too am enjoying the Haikus

  129. 130

    Here’s a story that refutes both claims that the economy is doing well and that Obamacare has worked. People over 65 are filing bankruptcy at record rates. One of the big reasons is medical expenses.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/05/business/bankruptcy-older-americans.html

  130. 131

    And here’s a story about how housing construction has not kept up, leading to market difficulties.

    https://www.npr.org/2018/08/06/629410064/the-new-housing-crisis-shut-out-of-the-market

  131. 132

    RE: sfrz @ 107
    Yes sfrz:

    If we knew the real truth about Medicaid/Medicare cost and application limits; as well as the limited number of doctors accepting Medicaid/Medicare America would be horrified….so we pretend Medicare is like Blue Cross…..its not at all like Blue cross. Basically, Medicaid has transformed into a get cheap narcotic opioids dealer with Planned Parenthood abortions [about $5-10K each?]. They stole the well American abortion/opioid money from the real disabled on Medicaid, I work for these disabled folks as a Medical Representative BTW…they survive on secret Medicaid/Medicare allotments no one talks about. ACA is just as bad…the cheaper plans cover nothing too….they’re hoping you won’t find that out…

  132. 133

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 130
    Assuming Overpopulation Isn’t Replaced With the Good Old Days of Fair Trade Productivity

    The heydays were when we worked hard and expected higher wages…not welfare and food stamps…with 200,000,000 people in America too…

  133. 134

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 129
    I Read That Too

    The healthcare is killing them…the mandatory $1600/yr for Medicare Part B doctor visits may seem like peanuts to a $120K/yr professional…but try paying it with like an average $1200 a month fixed Social Security check. Real Insurance like Blue Cross is like $20K/yr BTW.

    The retired can’t afford real insurance either.

  134. 135

    A Strong Trump Economy Means One Thing for Sure

    Higher investment rates for savers and higher mortgage rates for borrowers.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/06/jp-morgans-jamie-dimon-cautions-10-year-treasury-note-rate-to-hit-5-percent.html

  135. 136

    RE: softwarengineer @ 133 – I’m still not certain of the limits on the tax reform provision which allows sole proprietors to basically take 20% off the top of their income (to get basically the same tax cut benefits as LLCs), but it occurred to me that in a way that helps with the cost of Obamacare, but in a really odd way.

    There’s some number around $48,000 of income where you really get screwed under the workings of Obamacare. Earn $1 more than whatever that number is and you lose a could thousand dollars of premium assistance/tax benefit. Usually there’s more of a transition for thresholds. But people below that number get subsidized fairly well (although I believe they still have sizable deductibles). Then there’s a sole proprietor earning $100,000 a year. If they can take 20% off that their income, that could save them maybe $5,000 a year, more if they don’t have to pay the self-employment tax on that income. People earning more would do even better, although I think there’s a phase-out of the 20% at some level. But then there are the people earning above that roughly $48k figure and say $70-80k. They’ll be the worst off of the groups because they will have the high Obamacare rates and relatively little in the way of premium assistance/tax benefits.

    Anyway, the point is the Republicans may have slipped in a partial fix for high Obamacare premiums in the tax reform bill, the same way they slipped in a possible repeal of Obamacare by eliminating the individual mandate.

  136. 137

    The Double Income Seattle Household an Extinct Dinosaur Now?

    https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/720935/sex-robot-doll-harmony-realdoll-brick-dollbanger-video-realbotix-news

    The older men aren’t marrying younger gold diggers anymore….they have a cheap fixed cost of $15,000 per robot to replace a mate? The new improved models are cheaper [they used to be $200,000 a piece] and more advanced they say…welcome to the cost less world [without the need for women]….LOL

    Can Christians use them? Nothing in the Bible prohibits robot sex…no STDs either…married men can use them too with no guilt whatsoever?…LOL

  137. 138
    BacktoBasics says:

    Seattle is not just Amazon town. But Amazon pay is higher than average. There are couple of reason behind the housing slow dow
    1) Business is in late cycle,
    2) Interest creep up
    3) Less foreign buyer due to USD appreciation and control
    4) More seller try to time the peak

    On the other hand , Seattle is a very desirable place to live. The housing is very cyclic. A slow down is essential for next up cycle. I would accumulate cash and even open a line of home equity credit in case an opportunity come up. 10 years form now, people would wish bought a house now.

  138. 139

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 135
    Yes Kary

    Sounds like the $40,000/yr limit to get property taxes halved in King County….ya make $41K and pay full property tax? They don’t mention a gradual change from on to off…

  139. 140
    BacktoBasics says:

    5% mortgage is nothing. My 1st house mortgage rate is 7.5% and I have to buy down 1% of the rate. of course back CD rate is 5% for 5 years term. Housing price is 300k at the time. Now is something like 650K. At the time, min wage is $4.5 and now is $15/hr. I can’t imagine mortgage rate back to 7% and there will be a disaster. 5% is acceptable with CD saving rate at 2.5%.

  140. 141

    RE: BacktoBasics @ 137
    Higher Pay at Amazon than Jack in the Box Now?

    I haven’t researched Amazon or Jack in the Box matching fund 401Ks offered….perhaps Amazon has a matching fund? Maybe they don’t or by the time ya retire they eliminated it for global pay cuts…

    The basic pay, health care and 40 hour weeks are about the same….does Amazon offer flex time like Jack in the Box? My guess, based on their bathroom stop watch and employee surveillance goggles at work…is no.

  141. 142

    RE: BacktoBasics @ 139
    I Grew Up In the Heydays

    BECU offered 8% on basic checking accounts in the 90s…now its 0.2%…

  142. 143
    Justme says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 129

    >>Here’s a story that refutes both claims that the economy is doing well and that Obamacare has worked. People over 65 are filing bankruptcy at record rates. One of the big reasons is medical expenses.

    Whut? Obamacare is causing bankruptcy among age 65+ persons ? No doubt a convoluted explanation will be needed to explain how Obamacare (pre-65 age) has caused bankruptcy in medicare (post-65 age) population.

  143. 144

    RE: Matt P @ 127
    Yes Matt…Great Advice

    I’m in my long sleeve warm Seahawk fleese sweat shirt [I stopped wearing it in public like everyone else] and long fleese pajama bottoms with double socks on now…the house is 72 degrees….when it his 76 I go to a cotton tee shirt….when it hits 80 indoors I go to a swim suit and no socks….LOL….the windows and shades get lifted with boxed fans when the temperature outside is like 2 degrees higher than indoors.

    Closed windows and even the plastic insulation on windows can be hard on allergies and eyes can get watery indoors too with stuffy air…I imagine plastics on windows give out toxic fumes too…the watery eye syndrome can be cured by washing your hands a lot and keeping them away from your eyes….cleaning your eyes with a wet towel occasionally helps with stuffy/toxic allergy reactions [they get worse as you age BTW].

  144. 145

    RE: Justme @ 142
    Convoluted Blog

    I don’t know how to reply to it….LOL

  145. 146

    By Justme @ 142:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 129

    >>Here’s a story that refutes both claims that the economy is doing well and that Obamacare has worked. People over 65 are filing bankruptcy at record rates. One of the big reasons is medical expenses.

    Whut? Obamacare is causing bankruptcy among age 65+ persons ? No doubt a convoluted explanation will be needed to explain how Obamacare (pre-65 age) has caused bankruptcy in medicare (post-65 age) population.

    I would assume it was getting to 65, and any medical conditions arising before that time. Typically medical bills are several years old by the time someone files bankruptcy. But paying over $6,000 a year per person just for insurance, that depletes savings (but obviously wouldn’t be a debt–insurance companies don’t work on credit). And if they can’t afford the insurance, medical bills could pile up if they have any significant health issues.

    Another question would be what income would they have that would cause them to need to file. If you don’t have assets/income to go after there’s no reason to file bankruptcy. But countering that, not all states have the same exemptions that Washington state has. AZ is particularly bad. But up here if your only income was SS and you didn’t have a lot of equity in your house ($125k + 10% of value) or car, there’d typically be little reason to file.

  146. 147

    RE: BacktoBasics @ 137
    The Foreclosure I Bought About 4 Years Ago Doubled in Price

    I used my daughter’s college money to grab it up and keep it my name until the Millenials get real jobs again….the economy won’t correct itself immediately, but setting up new tooling and manufacturing centers is already in the works….FCA to bring the Mexican Truck factory back to America, etc, etc…

    Hello $30/$40/hr again!

    Toyota’s, Ford’s and Chevy’s lack of bringing plants back to America make FCA look good…LOL

    We can do without all the “playing solitaire ’til dawn with a deck of 51” service jobs or have robots do these low pay menial jobs without AI? We did it in the 70s, so its possible…the good old heydays folks.

  147. 148
    wreckingbull says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 145 – I agree, but I think you are missing the most important part. Medicare costs senior citizens $7-8K per year out of pocket. Its not cheap, as I am learning now with a family member. Why so much? The main reason is laughably expensive healthcare services, something exacerbated by Obamacare, AKA the “Affordable” Care Act.

  148. 149
    Justme says:

    Time for a look at the weekend inventory again. This time there was a glitch in the official SB/estately data collection, so I had to use hand-collected data. As usual, the KC/SFH inventory peaked on Friday night.

    08.03.2018 21:00 4265 (up 192 from 4073 last week)
    07.03.2014 17:00 4268 (last time inventory exceeded the current value)

    The last time inventory was higher was 4yr1mo ago, up from 3yr8mo last week. Seller activity keeps outpacing buyer activity at the exits of the housing bubble.

  149. 150

    RE: Matt P @ 127
    Nights Are Important Too

    Leave the windows open boxed fans going all night [I’d turn the heat off just in case]. It was like 78 degrees in my house at 12AM last night….I then closed about half the windows and turned the fans off…assuming ya wake up then…LOL….see why I’d turn the heat off. I left my room air conditioner on….but made sure my socks and fleese pajamas were back on [it cools off quick when its 57 degrees out at night]. By 5AM it was down to 74 degrees in Covington [its about 3 degrees hotter on the east Covington hill than Seattle]….I was awake so closed all the windows and shut the air conditioner off and opened my bedroom window. The air conditioner cleans the stuffy air BTW, so you don’t need an open window…it was 72 degrees by 6AM and I slept in until 7AM with the heat on and the bedroom window open for breathable air. I slept deep Rems [like 4 hours straight] from around 12A to 5AM….ahhhhhh….I’m happy and wide awake now :-)

    The portable air conditioners vent pieces can be removed easily and quickly to switch from air conditioning to open bedroom window, but if you do leave it on all night the air is clean and not stuffy. I take off my hearing aids when I’m inside so the air conditioner noise is a moot point for me. Sleep= healthy happy brain. Pity those with good hearing….LOL.

    If ya work I’d get up early and go to bed early to use this technique too.

  150. 151
    David says:

    By wreckingbull @ 147:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 145 – I agree, but I think you are missing the most important part. Medicare costs senior citizens $7-8K per year out of pocket. Its not cheap, as I am learning now with a family member. Why so much? The main reason is laughably expensive healthcare services, something exacerbated by Obamacare, AKA the “Affordable” Care Act.

    This is sad.

  151. 152

    RE: wreckingbull @ 147
    Ya Pay for Medicare All Your Life

    Then when ya get it, ya pay for Part B [ya pay more for mandatory Part B doctors visits at a sliding scale if your income exceeds $85K/yr single of $175K/yr married] is $134/mo…about $1500/yr…ya pay more if ya make more…it covers hardly no doctors too.

    Part D is prescriptions….it costs? Its not mandatory, but I have Blue Cross anyway.

    Then supplemental insurance added to Medicare [assuming you don’t have a blue cross type plan] costs? LOL….the cost fun will dry your retirement plans up fast…be prepared.

  152. 153
    David says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 145 – Move to Florida and they cannot take your house no mattter how much it is worth.

  153. 154

    By David @ 152:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 145 – Move to Florida and they cannot take your house no mattter how much it is worth.

    I think TX may have something similar, but the only problem is your house is in Florida or Texas! ;-)

  154. 155
    Matt P says:

    By Justme @ 148:

    Time for a look at the weekend inventory again. This time there was a glitch in the official SB/estately data collection, so I had to use hand-collected data. As usual, the KC/SFH inventory peaked on Friday night.

    08.03.2018 21:00 4265 (up 192 from 4073 last week)
    07.03.2014 17:00 4268 (last time inventory exceeded the current value)

    The last time inventory was higher was 4yr1mo ago, up from 3yr8mo last week. Seller activity keeps outpacing buyer activity at the exits of the housing bubble.

    So if this paces continues, we’ll be at 8,000 by the end of the year. Think that might drive down prices?

  155. 156
    formerSeattleite says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 130

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 130:

    And here’s a story about how housing construction has not kept up, leading to market difficulties.

    https://www.npr.org/2018/08/06/629410064/the-new-housing-crisis-shut-out-of-the-market

    Ok, I’ve read countless articles that say something very similar. That demand is VERY high, supply is very low, and thus the high prices. What I don’t understand is, if demand is so high (“In Boise, an analysis by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development showed there is a demand for more than 10 times the number of homes being built right now.”), why aren’t companies capitalizing on this?? Why aren’t homebuilders building?? There are a ton of incredibly smart businessmen out there and yet there are very few are cacheing in on this deman. I don’t understand it. Many companies WISH and PRAY that a market open up where there is an insane amount of demand with no one to supply for it. If this is the case, like so many articles are saying, why aren’t there more homes being built?? I don’t understand this..

    Is it really as simple as the article makes it out: “There’s tougher zoning, there’s not enough undeveloped land, lumber is expensive … and one of the biggest problems, a labor shortage.”

    Can someone explain this phenomenon to me?

  156. 157

    RE: formerSeattleite @ 155 – Part of it might be lead time. I think it generally takes at least 3 years to get from the point of buying a large parcel, platting it, improving it and then building houses.

    Part of it might be that they remembered what happened last time and don’t care to get so over-extended again.

    Part of it might be a shortage of quality labor.

    As to the first and third points, I’ve mentioned before two houses burning partially in our neighborhood on the 4th of July 2017. One looks like it is really close to done, the other still has some to go. A third house burned to the ground before the 4th and it is still at the foundation forms stage. That’s where the land is already owned, platted and improved with utilities.

  157. 158
    Eastsider says:

    RE: formerSeattleite @ 155 – The biggest problem is building costs. You don’t see $300k-$500K new homes nowadays because they simply doesn’t pencil. However, there is no shortage of new homes in the $1m+ range. In fact, there may be more supply than demand in the $1m+ market.

    New homes also have to compete against existing homes. If a typical resale home is $800k, a ‘similar’ new homes will have to sell for $1.2m+. In some eastside neighborhoods with half century homes, you don’t see many new homes because no one will build a $1m new home in a $600k teardown neighborhood. A new home has far more regulatory costs ($100k-$300k), and higher material and labor costs.

  158. 159
    KillianM says:

    RE: Matt P @ 154 – I posted your question in a different thread and never got any traction.

    With new housing builds still being sluggish, what happens to the prices if the inventory of homes (old homes) for sale keeps growing over the next 4-6 months?

    Simple answer would be that the increased supply should put pressure on the prices. But who knows, maybe the pent up demand is deeper still and it will be re-ignited once the Amazon HQ2 and Tariff uncertainty gets straightened out.

    At my company of ~2,500 employees, north of Seattle, there is an outrageously large number of baby-boomers set to retire in the next year. Most of them seem to be moving to Eastern Washington or Idaho. Will the generational dynamics increase the number of houses for sale in the next year?

  159. 160
    David says:

    Government has so burdened builders with fees, permit costs, and regulatory costs that have no benefit to the actual home being built and are paid up-front that it removes incentives to do business.

    I think it accounts for 30% of the cost of house?

  160. 161
    Justme says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 145

    Kary has been questioning articles about the rise and fall of Chinese Citizen buyers in Seattle, partly because the evidence is often anecdotal, and formal data gathering (checking citizenship etc) is uncertain and possibly missing outright.

    On the other hand, Kary will post an article from NYT about bankruptcy among age 65+ Americans. The article is mostly anecdotal, but the article also refers to study that states 100,000 bankruptcies per year, or 3x higher bankruptcy rates than in 1991, and cites “risks associated with aging, reduced income, and increased healthcare costs”.

    Kary then claims (QUOTE) : “Here’s a story that refutes both claims that the economy is doing well and that Obamacare has worked. People over 65 are filing bankruptcy at record rates. One of the big reasons is medical expenses.”

    When called out on this very weak analysis, Kary diverges into some verbiage that amounts to saying that it must have been 4 years of Obamacare (is started in 2014) that near-bankrupted people so that they just gasped over the 65 age line into Medicare and then promptly went bankrupt.

    Now, neither the article nor the study mentions Obamacare or ACA by name. Nevertheless, Kary goes right ahead and extrapolates that Obamacare is a substantial factor in 65+ bankruptcy. Never mind that the 65+ crowd is on Medicare, not Obamacare. Never mind that Obamacare pricing is independent from negotiated Medicare pricing. Never mind that only the 65-69 subgroup of the age 65-84 group could possibly ever have been on Obamacare, and neither the article nor the study nor Kary provides any numbers on Obamacare participation nor the size of the 65-69 group relative to the 65-84 group..

    Oh, and then another divergence, or should I say diversion, about who has assets to protect and how different states have different asset protection laws. To me it seems like just an effort to lay some smoke to cover up the pretty obvious shortcomings of his “analysis”.

    Kary: Just give this story a rest. Sometimes I really think it would be better if you posted less and instead spent time on analysis rather than posting stuff that ends up being just ill-founded in truth. I hope I (and you!) will be able to resist the urge to respond to any further missives on this particular topic.

  161. 162
    uwp says:

    Cities’ Offers for Amazon Base Are Secrets Even to Many City Leaders

    When officials in Montgomery County, Md., did respond to a request for information on their bid, they delivered, among other items, a 10-page document of incentives — with every line of text redacted.

    Sounds like it’s all on the up-and-up.
    City residents won’t know how many ball-shines per day they must deliver until it is too late.

  162. 163
  163. 164
    Wile E. Millenial says:

    A software engineer I work with told me a tale of an AMZN hiring freeze. However, I got a cold call from an AMZN recruiter this morning for a job here in SEA, so I guess it’s over.

  164. 165
    Minnie says:

    RE: Lurker @ 36

    “Buyers really chinese?
    kary is still skeptical
    show me your papers

    –a bubble haiku ”

    I loved this one. Makes the comments section worthwhile in and of itself.

  165. 166
    pedaltothemetal says:

    ***** clown CEOs like Spencer need to be paid more $.

    156:1 ratio because… Spencer is 156x smarter, better looking, better smelling, than the average ball shiner.

    What ever you can do, Spencer can do it 156x better!! These CEOs are truly rare specimens! Truly deserving folks.

    And in other news, https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/in-expensive-cities-rents-fall-for-the-rich–but-rise-for-the-poor/2018/08/05/a16e5962-96a4-11e8-80e1-00e80e1fdf43_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.11fe0e29f4a0

  166. 167
    Notme says:

    Vultures circling low
    what’s that deer in the headlights?
    green lake, mossy depths

    -a bubble haiku

  167. 168
    pedaltothemetal says:

    RE: Wile E. Millenial @ 163

    Did they use the new Amazon recruiter app, where you aggressively rub your touch screen for a while? I believe the app displays a balls pic.

    Solid remote interviewing tool.

  168. 169

    RE: Justme @ 160 – You apparently don’t understand the difference between data and completely made up nonsense. There is good data on bankruptcies, particularly for the type of debt they have (not so sure how they determine age–that is suspect). For Chinese foreign buyers it’s completely made up nonsense, as was addressed above. The information on that topic isn’t ” often anecdotal” as you claim, it’s only anecdotal, and from very small samples of 2 or 3. I note you haven’t refuted any of that even though Chinese foreign buyers is your contrasting counter-point. Pretty weak.

    But regardless of the validity of the bankruptcy age data, that we are still seeing a lot of medical debt related bankruptcies this far into Obamacare is pretty good proof that it isn’t working. As to the timing of the debt, and being able to go on Medicare at 65, that was addressed in a later post, and by others too. I note you didn’t address any of those arguments. Again pretty weak.

    As to the rest, yes it is my analysis. Unlike you, I like to think about things. But hey, good moniker, because “Justme” describes how many people agree with your analysis (or lack thereof).

  169. 170
    Notme says:

    Microsoft stands tall
    moss-covered deadwood resists
    ballming clouds of linux

    -a bubble Haiku

  170. 171
    Notme says:

    Microsoft stands tall
    moss-covered deadwood resists
    ballming clouds of linux

    – a bubble haiku

  171. 172

    By pedaltothemetal @ 162:

    Spencer, keep up the good work.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/06/zillow-stock-acquisition-mortgage-lenders-of-america.html

    I wish there were more information on the houses they’ve bought. So far I’ve only seen one reported in the press, and it was languishing on the market.

  172. 173
    Longtime Listener First Time Caller says:

    170 posts
    51 post Kary and software
    30 percent garbage

  173. 174
    Notme says:

    Poetic license
    so many double meanings
    green lake, mossy debts

    – a bubble haiku

  174. 175
    David says:

    If every post were on a specific and discrete data point carefully extrapolated and explained in minute detail sufficient to qualify for a doctoral dissertation, NO ONE would read these comments.

    The minute you go past ~10 posts, there is not much left to say. Some people are not boring because they have intellects that extend beyond your capacity to comprehend.

    By Longtime Listener First Time Caller @ 171:

    170 posts
    51 post Kary and software
    30 percent garbage

  175. 176
    Notme says:

    RE: pedaltothemetal @ 167

    hiring is frozen
    recruiters telling tall tales
    a cold call in hell

    -a bubble haiku

  176. 177

    The July numbers are out.

    New listings (King Cty SFR–as are all the other numbers) are up by a whopping 110 units! Sellers are clearly rushing for the exits! /sarc. About a third of that is new construction, so that isn’t picking up significantly. Surprisingly the average time on market is down by 2 days, and 11 days YTD. That somewhat refutes my pricing theory, but I’d like to know the median time too. That would be a better indicator. The total number of actives is up by over 1,250 (4,163/2898).

    The pendings are down just over 250 YOY, and almost 1,100 YTD.

    The solds are down about 150 (2,577/2727) YOY, and just over 700 YTD.

    The median came in at $699k, which is $1,000 below the YTD median and well below the high for the year. The mean is almost $831k, which is up about 3k.

    I’m still having difficulty reconciling all those numbers, but the increase in actives doesn’t seem to be seller driven (unless by pricing high). That seems to leave just lack of buyer depth or pricing, unless someone has a different explanation.

    Finally, note the number of new listings and pendings are both sort of soft numbers. If a listing expires or cancels, a replacement would be a new listing. Also they probably count the duplicate listings in there. Pendings may or may not close, so a property can go pending two or more times. The only solid number is the sold number (where the duplicates are dropped out if the agent does it right).

    Numbers from NWMLS sources, but not completely compiled by or guaranteed by the NWMLS.

  177. 178

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 175:

    Surprisingly the average time on market is down by 2 days, and 11 days YTD. That somewhat refutes my pricing theory, but I’d like to know the median time too. That would be a better indicator.

    I can’t pull the median DOM for last year, or even last month, but currently it is just short of 30 days. I would guess last year it was between 10-14 if I remember correctly. If so, that’s a significant increase.

    Same disclaimer as my most recent post.

  178. 179
    Macro Investor says:

    There’s a web site that allows you to do your own analysis of how obamacare subsidies work. I’ll share a few things I’ve learned:

    A low income person (making under $20k) can get a high deductible plan essentially free (little to no monthly premium). That plan will have a $6500 deductible or higher. So that poor person still goes bankrupt if he gets sick/injured. Obamacare has free check ups, but once they find something wrong with you, you are screwed.

    Alternatively, that poor person could choose a low deductible plan and pay $200-300 per month. Not exactly cheap but the annual out of pocket would be about $1500. So the smart thing to do is take the free high deductible plan and save money. Then if you get sick, switch over at the next open enrollment.

    For people making around 48k or more, those plans would cost about $600/month more for the same thing. So the high deductible would be 600 and the low deductible 800 or more. Pretty useless really to pay around $10k per year just for insurance, and not a single bill paid.

    Now you can see why people are still going bankrupt. Low income people get cheap insurance, but no help with bills. Middle income people pay insanely high insurance rates, also with no help with bills. Check mate. You are screwed.

    https://www.kff.org/interactive/subsidy-calculator/

  179. 180
    David says:

    RE: Macro Investor @ 177 – Exactly, ALL O-care does is enrich the insurance companies and medical personnel.

    It makes no sense to get involved with O-care. Self insure.

  180. 181
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 175
    Looking at the King County breakouts for RES, it really doesn’t look too dramatic. Nearly all the individual submarkets show higher prices – you’re just selling relatively more houses in the cheaper submarkets and definitely less in the higher priced submarkets. It does seem like a later cycle phenomenon, but who’s to say how long or deep at this point.

  181. 182
    ARDELL says:

    Mattress Firm Considers Bankruptcy to Get Out of its Real Estate Scams

    Somehow this seemed on topic if you stacked together some of the oddball comments above. :)

    https://wolfstreet.com/2018/08/06/mattress-firm-considers-bankruptcy-to-get-out-of-its-real-estate-scams/

  182. 183
    David says:

    FYI: If Amazon does effectively leave Seattle, I predict the failure of light rail. Employment will not be dense enough to support it.

  183. 184
    Erik says:

    RE: ohd1122 @ 1
    6 months of inventory is significant. Less than 6 months inventory, it’s a “seller’s market.” More than 6 months inventory is a “buyer’s market.”

  184. 185
    formerSeattleite says:

    By Macro Investor @ 177:

    There’s a web site that allows you to do your own analysis of how obamacare subsidies work. I’ll share a few things I’ve learned:

    A low income person (making under $20k) can get a high deductible plan essentially free (little to no monthly premium). That plan will have a $6500 deductible or higher. So that poor person still goes bankrupt if he gets sick/injured. Obamacare has free check ups, but once they find something wrong with you, you are screwed.

    Alternatively, that poor person could choose a low deductible plan and pay $200-300 per month. Not exactly cheap but the annual out of pocket would be about $1500. So the smart thing to do is take the free high deductible plan and save money. Then if you get sick, switch over at the next open enrollment.

    For people making around 48k or more, those plans would cost about $600/month more for the same thing. So the high deductible would be 600 and the low deductible 800 or more. Pretty useless really to pay around $10k per year just for insurance, and not a single bill paid.

    Now you can see why people are still going bankrupt. Low income people get cheap insurance, but no help with bills. Middle income people pay insanely high insurance rates, also with no help with bills. Check mate. You are screwed.

    https://www.kff.org/interactive/subsidy-calculator/

    This is great info, thank you!

  185. 186

    By Macro Investor @ 177:

    For people making around 48k or more, those plans would cost about $600/month more for the same thing. So the high deductible would be 600 and the low deductible 800 or more. Pretty useless really to pay around $10k per year just for insurance, and not a single bill paid.

    But you are getting the insurance in case something happens. The problem is you are also getting insurance for all sorts of nonsense, like being a 20-30 something and thinking you need to talk to a counselor about your life. And that drives up the cost some, but the worst thing is you’re getting insurance for those who buy insurance after they are sick. That’s probably the biggest cost driver of Obamacare since they didn’t make the individual mandate penalties significant.

    Now you can see why people are still going bankrupt. Low income people get cheap insurance, but no help with bills. Middle income people pay insanely high insurance rates, also with no help with bills. Check mate. You are screwed.

    Yes, thank you for that. I just had some numbers floating around in my head, and I was using $7,000 a year of out of pocket if sick and low income, or about $13,000 if higher income and sick. But that assumes coverage. If you’re one of the people who decides they can’t afford $5,000+ for insurance, or just decide you don’t want to, then your out of pocket can be huge.

    One last thing about bankruptcy. I mentioned above that people tend to wait–that the bills they file bankruptcy for do not tend to be all recent bills. Part of that is procrastination or not recognizing the situation, but part of it actually makes sense. If you expect future medical expenses from your condition you pretty much have to wait, absent other extreme financial issues, so that those expenses are included in the bankruptcy.

  186. 187

    By whatsmyname @ 179:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 175
    Looking at the King County breakouts for RES, it really doesn’t look too dramatic. Nearly all the individual submarkets show higher prices – you’re just selling relatively more houses in the cheaper submarkets and definitely less in the higher priced submarkets. It does seem like a later cycle phenomenon, but who’s to say how long or deep at this point.

    No, it’s not too dramatic, and clearly not as dramatic as they make it sound in the Seattle Times. We’re still at under two months of supply. But it is unusual that the peak price was reached so early in the year. That too can be explained by fewer bidding wars. Bidding wars can result in properties being sold in excess of their value, and that can impact the median price if you have enough of that activity occurring.

  187. 188

    RE: Longtime Listener First Time Caller @ 171
    Sounds Like the Registered Voters in America

    Apparently the non-voters respond to polls but are too lazy to vote….I bet Kary votes and I sure do….LOL

  188. 189

    One more thing about the price peak–it may be a reaction to the increased real estate taxes. I’m not exactly sure how quickly that information gets pumped into the listing information (for most listings how quickly Realist updates their tax information), but once updated it would reduce the price people are willing to pay–similar to how a significant increase in condo dues reduces prices. I’ll try to find an example later to see how that would impact price.

    The other thing we’ve sort of forgotten is the tax reform bill did make home ownership less enticing for higher end properties. We don’t have an income tax, so that impact is not as great here as elsewhere, but it probably is having some impact. Actually probably more impact than it should since some of the proposals were “worse” than what passed, and some people probably remember the proposals.

  189. 190

    $100,000/Yr Jobs and Free Housing/Meals

    Where ya gonna get that in Seattle? LOL

    $70 a barrel oil means one thing for West Texas. They’re hiring at the Shale Camps [beginning pay is $28/hr with free room and board]….

    https://www.bloombergquint.com/businessweek/2018/08/07/welcome-to-the-man-camps-of-west-texas

    Come back to Seattle later with a train car of money…alcohol is banned at man camps though.

  190. 191
    Justme says:

    Here’s the article on the NWMLS July report by MIke Rosenberg.

    “The number of homes for sale across King County jumped 44 percent in July from a year ago, the biggest increase in a decade and the third straight month of huge inventory growth, according to the Northwest Multiple Listing Service. Inventory now exceeds 2015 levels, reversing three years of steep declines.”

    https://www.seattletimes.com/business/real-estate/more-seattle-area-home-sellers-lower-list-prices-as-market-cools-way-down/

    I cannot make Kary’s self-compiled numbers comment @ 175 jibe with what is in the newspaper article (not just what I quoted, but the entire article should be read, and numbers studied). This will likely cause additional verbiage of questionable value, but the discrepancy has to mentioned.

  191. 192

    RE: Justme @ 188 – By Kary L. Krismer @ 175:

    The July numbers are out.

    New listings The total number of actives is up by over 1,250 (4,163/2898).

    4163 is 43.6507936507% more than 2898. The newspaper rounded up to 44%.

    Not exactly rocket science.

    But if you want to stop verbage of questionable value the solution is obvious. You should quit posting. Or at least post some fact that shows sellers are rushing to the exits when the number of new listings is barely changed YOY.

  192. 193
    Matt P says:

    By David @ 173:

    If every post were on a specific and discrete data point carefully extrapolated and explained in minute detail sufficient to qualify for a doctoral dissertation, NO ONE would read these comments.

    The minute you go past ~10 posts, there is not much left to say. Some people are not boring because they have intellects that extend beyond your capacity to comprehend.

    By Longtime Listener First Time Caller @ 171:

    170 posts
    51 post Kary and software
    30 percent garbage

    Complete bollocks. Once it gets into politics, you Kary and the others argue the same nonsense repeatedly especially about the ACA, so don’t act like you are introducing some wonderful new insight.

    If it’s not related to real estate, you should take it elsewhere. There’s no reason that you need to fill space so we have to scroll past the random noise to find useful relevant comments. 50 comments of on topic discussion is better than 500 where 450 have no relation.

  193. 194
    Brian says:

    Went to a couple open houses on some cheaper-end townhomes this weekend and was surprised to see absolutely nobody at either of them. Asking the agents, both said there had been very light traffic. I’ve been looking for a while now and I’ve experienced times when I’d see at least a dozen people at open houses like this. Now zero at both.

    It’s felt to me like the inventory increases have been slowing, making me consider maybe this is just a blip, but the experience I just had at the open houses makes me think maybe not. I believe prices have gone too high and there’s not enough buyers to afford all of the highly priced properties for sale. And right now it seems agents are just suggesting to their seller clients that now is not the best time to list and to maybe wait a couple months. We’ll see how long that lasts.

  194. 195

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 186:

    One more thing about the price peak–it may be a reaction to the increased real estate taxes. I’m not exactly sure how quickly that information gets pumped into the listing information (for most listings how quickly Realist updates their tax information), but once updated it would reduce the price people are willing to pay–similar to how a significant increase in condo dues reduces prices. I’ll try to find an example later to see how that would impact price.

    I did an extensive study which a huge sample-size of four median-priced houses selling last month in Seattle. /sarc Their taxes went up under roughly between $650 and $950 a year. At 5% interest that only works out to be about $10,000-15,000 of value, so not a huge impact. I was expecting it to be larger.

  195. 196
    uwp says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 189:

    But if you want to stop verbage of questionable value the solution is obvious. You should quit posting.

    lol

    In regards to inventory, I haven’t noticed quality listings sitting. But like Kary mentioned about mis-pricing, some agents started getting ahead of themselves and listing way too high.

    Here is one in my neighborhood that I’ve watched from flip to now:

    https://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/511-N-95th-St-98103/home/98786

    Listed for probably 100-150k too high, and now sitting like a turd. If they had listed at 699k rather than 850k, they might have got bid up, but instead…

  196. 197
    BacktoBasics says:

    Affordability is very low in Seattle now. High price, increasing rate, increase property tax. Don’t forget Seattle min wage is $15/hr. If you eat out, you know high price, high tax (10%), plus tips. All these will need to be balanced. I seen so many families housing sharing . Open house traffic is slow because people can’t afford buying. There are solutions.: bulid more smaller SFH on smaller lot. Keep entry level house at below $500k.

  197. 198
    wreckingbull says:

    RE: uwp @ 196 – Ah yes, the classic Seattle “7 1/2” floor. The original builders of these homes would find it quite funny that people are living like this in their former homes.

    https://youtu.be/T2Y7oo3iB40?t=63

  198. 199
    deerhawke says:

    By Matt P @ 190:

    If it’s not related to real estate, you should take it elsewhere. There’s no reason that you need to fill space so we have to scroll past the random noise to find useful relevant comments. 50 comments of on topic discussion is better than 500 where 450 have no relation.

    I couldn’t agree more.

  199. 200
    Mike says:

    A bit more insight on the “boomers are being driven into bankruptcy” meme…

    https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2018/08/just-stop-it-the-elderly-are-doing-fine/

  200. 201
    uwp says:

    By wreckingbull @ 198:

    RE: uwp @ 196 – Ah yes, the classic Seattle “7 1/2” floor.

    I didn’t hate it, I found the basement to be usable square-footage. It was just the outrageous asking price that turned me off.

    (Also, no sidewalks, since I know that is a frequent topic around here.)

  201. 202
    David says:

    RE: Matt P @ 193

    The ACA directly affects people’s ability to afford a house or almost anything else. Congratulations on learning some British slang though.

    Imagine if you bought a house the year before the ACA and suddenly you are slammed with a MASSIVE insurance scam by the Government. Where they get to come to your house with a gun and take your money and stuff if you don’t pay it. That is what the ACA is.

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