Summer 2018 slowdown link roundup

There have been a lot of stories in recent weeks about the housing market slowing down, not just in Seattle, but across the country. I thought I would post a quick roundup of some of the stories I’m seeing:

Back in early June I said that based on the May inventory numbers, “we could finally be seeing the beginning of a trend that points toward an easing market.” In the months since then, it seems that a lot more people are coming around to that point of view as well. Personally I think it’s still too early for hyperbolic headlines like BoingBoing’s proclamation that “the housing market in America’s most expensive cities is imploding,” but more and more signs seem to be pointing to a serious cooling, which is definitely a good thing, in my opinion.

5.00 avg. rating (90% score) - 1 vote

About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. Tim also hosts the weekly improv comedy sci-fi podcast Dispatches from the Multiverse.

868 comments:

  1. 751
    David says:

    By Deerhawke @ 737:

    RE: Erik @ 733

    Erik, I think you are a funny, entrepreneurial young guy. But if you think the last recession was caused by 2 liberals, then:

    1) you desire simplicity and ignore all the historical details that get in the way of one simple, compelling explanation. (HL Mencken memorably wrote “For every complex problem, there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong.”)

    2) you forgot that the last recession started during the Bush administration. Which had been there for two terms–8 years. Somehow these two incredibly powerful liberals started the recession despite the Republican’s holding the Executive Branch? Really? How? Were these two people magical? Were they wizards?

    Look, If you believe this kind of stuff, you are probably getting your information from Fox News and even worse outlets. If so, you are leaving yourself open to getting really sideswiped by changes in the political economy. As an act of financial self-preservation, you should reject the propaganda and read broadly.

    A recession is about 6 months in duration. It took the rise of the super dufus Barack Hussein Obama to turn it into a depression that lasted his entire presidency and spontaneously ended the day after Trump was elected. Remember when Obama’s trained media (the ones he prosecuted if they pissed him off) predicting a market implosion when Trump won?

    Barack Obama was a clueless race-baiting ***** who has no idea why Trump has turned things around on a dime.

    I want to see the WaPo and NYT give Trump credit at least for turning down the hurricane just before it hit shore.

  2. 752
    Notme says:

    The not clever dog
    complaining that IQ dropped
    oh, the irony

    -a you-could-not-even-make-this-stuff-up haiku

  3. 753
    David says:

    RE: Notme @ 751 – Ok dipstick, try this one on for size:

    “This wasn’t just a matter of households and companies being cut off from credit – although it certainly was that – but also of them being so scarred from the experience that they cut back their spending even more than you might have thought. It was a psychological crisis, in other words, that lasted even after the financial part was over.” http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/ct-2008-crisis-great-depression-analysis-20180915-story.html

    Barack Obama unnerved the entire core of the economy with his mocking companies and telling them they didn’t build their business or that private airplanes were evil, etc. And all of the other ghetto-minded BS he pulled out of his tight little ***** He preened around like the cock-of-the-walk he thinks he is.

    Obama finished up by going full-on violent racist bigot.

  4. 754
    Erik says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 737
    I don’t watch Fox News or any news for that matter as I thinks it’s just a big propaganda machine that twists truths. When I skim the political nonsense on this website, I just think the person typing is a victim of the propaganda machine.

    I download books that have titles that interest me on audible. I listen to them. If I like them, I listen to them again. If they really interest me, I’ll listen to them repeatedly until I can recite parts of the book. I’m a little obsessive, but I think repetition is a good tool to learn something. Anyway, I’m telling you this because one book a listened to about 10 times was “The housing boom and bust” by Thomas Sowell. Please feel free to shoot holes in the book as I like to hear counter arguments.

    It’s been about 8 months since I last listened to it, but mr. Sowell said that Nancy Pelosi and Barney Frank pushed for black Americans to get special treatment for loans. Later they pushed for all minorities to get special treatment. Finally the flood gates opened and everyone got special treatment and we had had a huge boom and bust. I attribute that one act to the huge bubble we had because without that, we wouldn’t have had massive credit expansion, foreclosures, etc. If you haven’t read the book, you should. Then come back and bash it because I think Thomas Sowell nailed it until I hear otherwise.

  5. 755

    One of the news sources I read is the English website “The Telegraph.” Their cartoonist (MATT) is probably the best part, and today’s has some relevance to this site. Enjoy!

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/content/dam/PortalPictures/September-2018/1609-MATT-GALLERY-WEB-P1.png?imwidth=1240

  6. 756

    If that link doesn’t work due to their ad-blocking (which can be bypassed by clicking another MATT cartoon), try their main link.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/

  7. 757

    This is not a site I frequent, and I don’t know the bias of the author, but an interesting piece lacking a bit of specifics. It is though consistent with my belief that the financial crisis of 2008 was caused in significant part by liberals and conservatives forcing positions on Fannie and Freddie. The liberals wanted to increase home ownership and the conservatives wanted to help banks.

    https://fee.org/articles/how-the-federal-government-created-the-subprime-mortgage-crisis/

  8. 758
    wreckingbull says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 753 – I don’t get the joke. When Brexit passed, the UK property index was at 111. It has grown steadily to 119 today. What am I missing?

  9. 759

    RE: wreckingbull @ 756 – Not familiar with that index, but I think they have been having values fall recently in some areas (as would be typical for any country). But the joke is more related to this type of “scare news” related to the possibility of a no deal Brexit.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/aug/29/one-in-three-chance-of-london-house-price-crash-says-expert-poll

  10. 760

    Totally unrelated to real estate, but here’s another MATT related to all those privacy notices we were getting a few months ago from sites long not visited.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/content/dam/PortalPictures/May-2018/2705-MATT-PORTAL-WEB-P1.png?imwidth=1240

  11. 761
    Justme says:

    Time for the weekend update on for-sale inventory for KC/SFH. Two weeks have passed since Labor Day. The King County SFH for-sale listings increased by 235 from last week to 4835, a number not reached since 30.Sep 2014. As usual, inventory peaked on Friday evening.

    09.14.2018 18:00 4835 (up 235 from 4600 last week)
    09.30.2014 11:00 4835 (last time for-sale inventory >= today’s number)

    The crowd at the exits of the housing market reached a new 4-year high. In 2017, this weekend marked the peak of listing inventory for the year. My hunch is that this year will be different. In a week we shall see.

  12. 762
    Joe says:

    RE: Justme @ 759

    We can say with high confidence that things are different this year. Inventory has been rising at a rate of over 10% per week as recently as this week. That kind of momentum doesn’t turn around quickly, especially when there are long-term fundamental factors driving it, such as increasing interest rates, high unaffordability, drastically reduced Chinese demand, and record number of apartments coming to market over the next two year period. Amazon is putting new growth outside Seattle. We also know that Amazon’s, Microsoft’s, and Boeing’s amazing stock price runs are now vulnerable. Don’t be fooled. There is a silent stampede of hot money taking place, and it is still in the early stages.

  13. 763
    wreckingbull says:

    RE: Joe @ 760 – This is a good summary. As Kary has pointed out, just the reduction in bidding wars has likely lopped off an instant 10%. Now the real inputs you mention will likely come into play for the longer run.

  14. 764
    Joe says:

    RE: Joe @ 760

    I’ll clarify that inventory is growing at 10% per week in Seattle. The suburbs such as East Side have seen less inventory growth, but it is still brisk. Note, prices in Seattle are truly egregious, in the $500-$1000 per foot range, while prices on the East Side are generally less than $500. This explains why Seattle home sellers are coming to market at a hyper-fast pace.

  15. 765

    By wreckingbull @ 761:

    RE: Joe @ 760 – This is a good summary. As Kary has pointed out, just the reduction in bidding wars has likely lopped off an instant 10%. Now the real inputs you mention will likely come into play for the longer run.

    And the spin the press will put on the median change will likely make things worse (viewed from the seller side).

    But as mentioned, the inventory issues are rather area specific, but widespread. The NWMLS area down by Federal Way/Auburn (100) was only up by one listing YOY, less than 1%, while others are up by well over 100%

  16. 766
    Temporal Nature of Events. says:

    If you stood on a remote flat island 500 miles from the epicenter of an earthquake and watched video of waves cresting on an mountainous island 400 miles from epicenter ( 100 miles closer than your island) and said, “The waves seem to be normal on my island so I’m not concerned.” You might be minutes to hour from death. The epicenter of price increase and low inventory is Seattle Metro. It took time for the waves to hit the surrounding areas, but as sure as the sun rises they eventually did. The surrounding areas are still a cheaper compared to Seattle, but don’t be fooled into thinking the wave of inventory and price dreceases will not eventually hit the surrounding islands later. If your island is flat ( an area without stronger fundamentals than Seattle) than expect more devastation as few we places to reach safety when the wave finally crests on your beach. My point that we must incorporate the temporal nature of the inventory and price increases on way down just like we saw for them going up. The last areas to go up were the last to go up for a reason. For that reason they could be the most effected areas when the downward trend finally hits.

  17. 767
    Brian says:

    Altos Research on the homepage now says the median price in Seattle is less than last year at this time.

  18. 768
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Brian @ 764 – Interesting link. Bellevue median list price is near 2 year low. Its sales were mostly in the bottom half segment (2:1 ratio). Redmond has only 1 sale in the top half compared to 19 sales in the bottom half! The impending interest rate hike will likely depress sales of expensive homes in the area further.

  19. 769
    Erik says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 739
    Thank you for the kind words. I’m a long ways from where I want to be, but things are definitely starting to make more sense. Keep commenting.

  20. 770
    Matt P says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 763:

    By wreckingbull @ 761:

    RE: Joe @ 760 – This is a good summary. As Kary has pointed out, just the reduction in bidding wars has likely lopped off an instant 10%. Now the real inputs you mention will likely come into play for the longer run.

    And the spin the press will put on the median change will likely make things worse (viewed from the seller side).

    But as mentioned, the inventory issues are rather area specific, but widespread. The NWMLS area down by Federal Way/Auburn (100) was only up by one listing YOY, less than 1%, while others are up by well over 100%

    It will ripple outward. As homes get cheaper in more desirable locations, areas farther out will see an increase in inventory as demand drops.

  21. 771

    RE: Matt P @ 766 – Very likely, unless it’s other issues causing the drop–such as Seattle threatening an income tax on high earners. But that will open up “opportunities” to live in Seattle for those below the threshold, who don’t happen to think that threshold will be moved lower.

    But again, the inventory levels are not really all that high given the sales volumes. They just seem high due to what we’ve been through the past three years.

  22. 772
    Macro Investor says:

    Love the comments about IQ and scull size. I guess football players and heavy weight wrestlers are the smartest in society.

  23. 773
    Macro Investor says:

    For those trying to understand what’s going on in this crazy world, let’s compare 2008 to today. In 2008 the US had a banking crisis that spread around the world. Today the rising dollar is causing a banking crisis in many parts of the world, but not in the US. The stress around the world sends investor funds rightly or wrongly (I imply no value judgement) to the US “safe haven”.

    JPM Chase CEO and Trump hater Jamie Dimon has grudgingly admitted that Trump policies have been good for the US economy. Good economy with inflation rising in the past has meant the fed would keep raising rates. Rising rates usually means rising dollar… more international stress. Connections.

    My bet would be any US slowdown would be relatively minor unless some US based crisis scares money the other way. While I might cash in my over priced house or stocks, I wouldn’t expect any kind of crash in the next few years.

    Be interested in your opinions — I know lots of internet gurus think gov’t debt is a time bomb waiting to go off.

  24. 774

    RE: Macro Investor @ 768
    They are if Their DNA Came from the Original Homo Sapiens From South Africa

    Large skulls then immigrated to Europe from Africa….the archeological records for Asia and hence parts of northern Africa get more mixed and foggy.

    Hey, it takes large brains to play football good…LOL

    BTW, the first folks to make it America via the Ice Age frozen Atlantic Ocean got to like Florida 15,000 years ago….the mass bones were found in like a sand pit that preserved them and the DNA came up French, not Eurasian. The Eurasian American Indians came later from Russia and Alaska. We stole America from the French American Indians? LOL The Spanish stole Mexico from the Mayans and Aztecs, bred with them and out came the Hispanic BTW. Won’t read that in a public school textbook….why not, it happenned? They took OVERPOPULATION out of our world history textbooks too. Why?

  25. 775

    RE: Macro Investor @ 768
    Women May Not Like It, But Its a Biological Fact Too

    Men have bigger skulls and brain capacity.

  26. 776

    By softwarengineers @ 771:

    <Men have bigger skulls and brain capacity.

    That doesn’t matter because we use all that extra capacity thinking about women. ;-)

    http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20140617-how-often-do-men-think-about-sex

  27. 777

    Cheap Repos in Hurricane Hit States?

    I know Florida is/was selling high priced ocean view mansions cheap lately…some 10 cents on the dollar. They weren’t all that bad shape either. Grab ’em up?

    https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/florence-likely-expose-gaps-flood-123453960.html

  28. 778
    Justme says:

    Getting back on topic: I decided to experiment a bit with the plotting software and see if I could overlay 2017 listing inventory and 2018 (so far) listing inventory on the same 12-month time axis. Here is the result, for King County/SFH inventory. It is quite illuminating, I think. There is the overall trend, which is quite the reversal in 2018 versus 2017. Then there is what I have previously called the micro-structure, and additionally what I might now call micro-seasons of the listing market, which are even more clear when the two years are placed on the same 12-month axis.

    https://imgur.com/m3t696f

    Click on the image for larger version once you get there.

    keywords: KC/SFH, micro-structure, micro-seasons, the big picture, overall trend

  29. 779
    uwp says:

    By Joe @ 762:

    RE:

    I’ll clarify that inventory is growing at 10% per week in Seattle.

    Last 4 Mondays of Seattle SFH inventory growth from Estately sidebar on the homepage:

    8/20/18 – 8/27/18: +2%
    8/27/18 – 9/3/18: -4%
    9/3/18 – 9/10/18: +7%
    9/10/18 – 9/17/18: +5%

    Overall growth in inventory the last 4 weeks COMBINED hasn’t even been 10% (4,300 to 4,761).

  30. 780

    Seattle Modular Homes Going Up Faster Than Stick Homes in Value Now?

    Apparently, at least my 40% jump in property taxes alleges that fact…LOL

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/mobile-home-values-might-rise-as-fast-as-regular-homesheres-why-that-matters-2018-09-17

    I imagine the nicer looking ones on lots [like mine] are especially valuable now. I predicted this in 1999 BTW, after I analyzed OVERPOPULATION decreasing wages [making stick homes unaffordable] over time like it actually happenned. Lucky SWE guess? Perhaps.

  31. 781
    Thomas says:

    Can we get an update on August data please? Pretty please? :)

  32. 782
    Justme says:

    RE: Joe @ 762
    RE: uwp @ 775

    The Joe data and statements is about SEATTLE proper, not King County. The SeattleBubble/TheTim/Estately data is KC. The Joe data is different and has not been published here, but Joe made quite a point of it above that he was talking about Seattle and not KC.

  33. 783
  34. 784
    Justme says:

    RE: Matt P @ 713

    @Matt P asked about King County condo listing inventory, and I made a graph of 2017 versus 2018 so far. It is quite dramatic, with a more than 2X increase between peak of 2017 and 2018 so far. Here it is:

    https://imgur.com/rTodkR5

    It looks like KC Condo inventory is up over 20% so far in *September*. I think it may be fair, for this particular case, to use the phrase “rushing” upgraded from “crowding” now.

    As in: “KC Condo owners have been rushing for the exits in the last 3 weeks”.

  35. 785
    wreckingbull says:

    By softwarengineer @ 776:

    Seattle Modular Homes Going Up Faster Than Stick Homes in Value Now?

    Interesting, although that is not what the article said.

    “A new report from the Urban Institute, a Washington, D.C.-based think tank, examined data released in August by the Federal Housing Finance Agency. The home price index for manufactured homes (also known as mobile homes) featured an average annual growth rate of 3.4%, versus 3.8% for traditional, site-built homes. ”

    It would be interesting to see how that 3.4% compares to raw land. My guess is that it is rather similar.

  36. 786
    Justme says:

    RE: Justme @ 774

    Oops, I linked a plot of 2014 versus 2018 for King County SFH listing inventory, rather than the promised 2017-versus-2018. I’ll get it posted in a moment. Maybe I can replace it, maybe I have to post a new link.

    Here is the corrected link, for 2017-versus-2018, King County SFH listing inventory.

    https://imgur.com/a/4XtFtSS

  37. 787
    Matt P says:

    By uwp @ 775:

    By Joe @ 762:

    RE:

    I’ll clarify that inventory is growing at 10% per week in Seattle.

    Last 4 Mondays of Seattle SFH inventory growth from Estately sidebar on the homepage:

    8/20/18 – 8/27/18: +2%
    8/27/18 – 9/3/18: -4%
    9/3/18 – 9/10/18: +7%
    9/10/18 – 9/17/18: +5%

    Overall growth in inventory the last 4 weeks COMBINED hasn’t even been 10% (4,300 to 4,761).

    Justme explained already, but 4761 is about 11% higher than 4300. (461/4300)

  38. 788
    Matt P says:

    By Justme @ 779:

    RE: Matt P @ 713

    @Matt P asked about King County condo listing inventory, and I made a graph of 2017 versus 2018 so far. It is quite dramatic, with a more than 2X increase between peak of 2017 and 2018 so far. Here it is:

    https://imgur.com/rTodkR5

    It looks like KC Condo inventory is up over 20% so far in *September*. I think it may be fair, for this particular case, to use the phrase “rushing” upgraded from “crowding” now.

    As in: “KC Condo owners have been rushing for the exits in the last 3 weeks”.

    Thanks, and I don’t think they are going to sell well with how out of control HOA fees are. I’d rather keep renting than have that monthly albatross hanging around my neck for the rest of my ownership term.

  39. 789
    wreckingbull says:

    RE: Justme @ 781 – Thanks. I thought I was having a “senior moment” while reading the first version. That is rather striking.

  40. 790
    Justme says:

    RE: wreckingbull @ 784

    KC/SFH listing inventory 2017-versus-2018 is striking, indeed.

    But come to think of it, the KC/SFH 2014-versus-2018 version is also striking: It looks like 2018 may soon overtake the peak of 2014, which is a significant event in my opinion. And that is why I made that plot in the first place :). We may know soon whether 2018 overtakes 2014!

  41. 791

    Mortgage rates up again this morning. Just an FYI.

  42. 792
    Eric says:

    RE: Justme @ 785

    I don’t have access to this data (or don’t know where to find it). Are you able to plot the same charts using only new listings? That would help us see if it’s really sellers crowding the exits, or just inventory sitting longer.

  43. 793

    By Macro Investor @ 769:

    For those trying to understand what’s going on in this crazy world, let’s compare 2008 to today. In 2008 the US had a banking crisis that spread around the world. Today the rising dollar is causing a banking crisis in many parts of the world, but not in the US.

    I’m not sure our crisis was the only crisis at the time, but that is an interesting observation. As is typical, you never face exactly the same circumstances later in history.

  44. 794

    By Matt P @ 783:

    Thanks, and I don’t think they are going to sell well with how out of control HOA fees are. I’d rather keep renting than have that monthly albatross hanging around my neck for the rest of my ownership term.

    It’s not necessarily the amount of dues that are the issue, as much as just some units having very poor management. What’s surprised me is how well some of the better run units held up during the downturn, when many people (ignorantly) quit paying their HOA dues. But to some extent those things go hand in hand–good management leads to lower costs over the long run. For example, proper exterior maintenance (e.g. painting) can delay or even eliminate the need for a costly siding repair project. Also, the prices will tend to be higher in well maintained complexes.

  45. 795

    By Eric @ 787:

    RE: Justme @ 785

    I don’t have access to this data (or don’t know where to find it). Are you able to plot the same charts using only new listings? That would help us see if it’s really sellers crowding the exits, or just inventory sitting longer.

    The YOY numbers for August were:
    (2017 vs. 2018)
    930 vs. 828 (Condo, King County)
    3160 vs. 3,106 (SFR, King County)

    Numbers from NWMLS sources, but not guaranteed.

  46. 796
    Justme says:

    RE: Eric @ 787

    The plots I have linked are based on the Estately-generated data on the front page. I do not have access to new listing data.

    Come to think of it, a monopoly such as any MLS should not be permitted to operate without allowing the public a complete access to all types of listing, pending and sales statistics with hourly resolution. Call your congressperson and complain :-).

  47. 797
    Justme says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 790

    How about new listing numbers for SEPTEMBER, so far, Kary? This is where the Condo plot I made seems to indicate a huge jump in new listings based on the huge jump in inventory.

  48. 798

    By Justme @ 792:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 790

    How about new listing numbers for SEPTEMBER, so far, Kary? This is where the Condo plot I made seems to indicate a huge jump in new listings based on the huge jump in inventory.

    About 1550, but note unlike the NWMLS, I can’t account for new listings that went pending since going active, so the actual number is likely higher. My number is just those that went active that are still active. And I have no ability to do the same calculation for last year.

    FWIW, the NWMLS does have a number for new listings in the past 7 days. That is 901.

    Numbers from NWMLS sources, but the first not compiled by the NWMLS, and neigher guaranteed.

  49. 799
    greg says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 767:

    RE: Matt P @ 766 – Very likely, unless it’s other issues causing the drop–such as Seattle threatening an income tax on high earners. But that will open up “opportunities” to live in Seattle for those below the threshold, who don’t happen to think that threshold will be moved lower.

    But again, the inventory levels are not really all that high given the sales volumes. They just seem high due to what we’ve been through the past three years.

    well given that the market has shifted OUTSIDE of Seattle that is very unlikely to be the case. If it were we would in fact see some signs of upward pressure in cities close in to seattle…. after all one is hardly going to leave the state , but one might very well purchase the next home ouside of seattle city limits…

  50. 800
    Justme says:

    RE: Eric @ 787
    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 793

    Wow, at least 1550 new KC/condo listing so far in September by Sep17. Does that answer your question about whether condo sellers are rushing the exit, Eric ;-)?

  51. 801
    Matt P says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 793:

    By Justme @ 792:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 790

    How about new listing numbers for SEPTEMBER, so far, Kary? This is where the Condo plot I made seems to indicate a huge jump in new listings based on the huge jump in inventory.

    About 1550, but note unlike the NWMLS, I can’t account for new listings that went pending since going active, so the actual number is likely higher. My number is just those that went active that are still active. And I have no ability to do the same calculation for last year.

    FWIW, the NWMLS does have a number for new listings in the past 7 days. That is 901.

    Numbers from NWMLS sources, but the first not compiled by the NWMLS, and neigher guaranteed.

    901 for the last week but less than 900 all of last month?

  52. 802
    uwp says:

    By Matt P @ 782:

    Justme explained already, but 4761 is about 11% higher than 4300. (461/4300)

    You are correct! The formula I used in excel was for the last 3 weeks (8/27 – 9/17), not the last 4. My mistake.

    Either way, it’s not 10% growth per week as Joe has been breathlessly exclaiming.

  53. 803
    Eric says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 790
    So it is safe to conclude that the increased inventory is entirely due to decreased demand and not to more sellers listing their houses, right?

  54. 804
    uwp says:

    By Justme @ 785:

    RE:
    But come to think of it, the KC/SFH 2014-versus-2018 version is also striking: It looks like 2018 may soon overtake the peak of 2014, which is a significant event in my opinion. And that is why I made that plot in the first place :). We may know soon whether 2018 overtakes 2014!

    Is there a particular reason why overtaking 2014 is a “significant event” in your opinion?
    Why not 2018 vs 2015 (already passed) or 2018 vs 2004 (far below)?

    I’m not trying to be snarky here. Honestly wondering.

  55. 805
    Macro Investor says:

    RE: Matt P @ 796

    RE buying a condo. Just ask yourself this — how many of your neighbors/friends/co-workers make good financial decisions? It’s a pretty small number. And you are allowing total strangers to decide what to spend on your property.

    Some will be too cheap to do necessary maintenance. Some will want to waste money on cosmetic changes that don’t add to value. Others won’t bother researching good contractors, or won’t know how.

    A total crap shoot isn’t how I like to make major decisions.

  56. 806
    Justme says:

    RE: Justme @ 795
    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 790

    I think Kary’s 1550 Sep-so-far-new-listings may be have been SFH+Condo, not just Condo? Can you provide a breakdown, Kary?

  57. 807
    Joe says:

    RE: uwp @ 797

    My stats are Seattle, not King county. Seattle inventory is increasing 10% per week.

  58. 808

    By Justme @ 801:

    RE: Justme @ 795
    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 790

    I think Kary’s 1550 Sep-so-far-new-listings may be have been SFH+Condo, not just Condo? Can you provide a breakdown, Kary?

    Sorry, I didn’t notice you asked for condo. That number was SFR. The condo number is just over 500.

    Number from NWMLS sources, but not compiled by or guaranteed by the NWMLS.

    The 7 day number for condos is just over 260. That number also not guaranteed by the NWMLS.

  59. 809

    By Eric @ 798:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 790
    So it is safe to conclude that the increased inventory is entirely due to decreased demand and not to more sellers listing their houses, right?

    I don’t think that’s clear either, and an issue I’ve been trying to figure out for the last month or two. I think a good part of it is just new stuff coming on that is overpriced and not selling, but it seems to be a combination of things, but the numbers are not adding up for me. But it does not seem to be a lot of new listings.

  60. 810

    By Justme @ 801:

    <I think Kary's 1550 Sep-so-far-new-listings may be have been SFH+Condo, not just Condo? Can you provide a breakdown, Kary?

    It was just SFR–I just provided the condo only numbers.

  61. 811
    Eric says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 804:

    By Eric @ 798:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 790
    So it is safe to conclude that the increased inventory is entirely due to decreased demand and not to more sellers listing their houses, right?

    I don’t think that’s clear either, and an issue I’ve been trying to figure out for the last month or two. I think a good part of it is just new stuff coming on that is overpriced and not selling, but it seems to be a combination of things, but the numbers are not adding up for me. But it does not seem to be a lot of new listings.

    Can you explain further what those other things are? If new listings are roughly the same YOY, it would seem to me that the increased total inventory has to be explained by fewer sales, at least over the recent few months. Am I missing something, or are you saying that sales have not decreased (again, I don’t have access to the NWMLS data)? Whether the decreased sales is caused by listing too high, or increased mortgage rates scaring buyers, buyer fatigue, etc, is another question.

  62. 812
    David says:

    Where are the people who are selling going to? Are they leaving town? Sick of Seattle and the wacko-birds who live here?

    Realizing California wacko-birds have supplemented their wacko-bird culture, making the area even more unliveably wacko-bird?

    The remainers have time to protest Trump but get all ‘hush hush’ over their own pedo-politicians? Still vaguely support them or overtly even when it was weird years ago?

    New Motto: Seattle – The Catholic Priest of Cities.

  63. 813
    wreckingbull says:

    RE: David @ 807 – Spokane is seeing a huge influx of Seattle refugees. Of course Spokane residents are likely not too thrilled about this. Also Snohomish, Skagit, Pierce, Thurston, Jefferson, and Whatcom counties. I don’t regret pulling the eject lever on Seattle.

    The key is to setup a work situation where you don’t have to commute every day, preferably never.

  64. 814
    S-Crow says:

    RE: David @ 807 – From the trenches: Arizona and Northern Idaho. Multiple cases.

    In other news: Stress increasing for those highly leveraged right now. And, the Puget Sound area is sloshing in it.

  65. 815
    Justme says:

    RE: Eric @ 806

    Eric is starting to sound like a troll. Maybe he is uwp’s little brother? He keeps asking questions, and when answered, he is never satisfied, always wanting more, and then trying to put words in your mouth. Case in point:

    >>So it is safe to conclude that the increased inventory is entirely due to decreased demand and not to more sellers listing their houses, right?

    No, it is NOT. Stop trolling. Nothing is due ENTIRELY to one factor. In this thread you have been presented with detailed plots and numbers. Stop asking inane and/or dishonest and troll-y questions and get real.

  66. 816
    David says:

    RE: S-Crow @ 809RE: wreckingbull @ 808

    I can understand Spokane and Idaho (especially Idaho except for their state income tax. I’m down in Florida again and I actually witnessed a homeless guy today. That makes maybe two in three trips here.

    Heading back to metro-Seattle tomorrow whereupon I will see that many just on the drive home at least. No marijuana either. No train bus light rail. No state income tax.

  67. 817
    Brian says:

    Nice graphs, justme. Thanks for putting them together and sharing.

  68. 818
    wreckingbull says:

    RE: S-Crow @ 809 – Yes, I should have mentioned Post Falls and the swath of US 95 from CDA to Sandpoint. In our lifetimes, that will be one continuous belt of suburbia. N Idaho is off my list as it is being Californicated/Seatteited too quickly for my taste.

  69. 819
    Eric says:

    By Justme @ 810:

    RE: Eric @ 806

    Eric is starting to sound like a troll. Maybe he is uwp’s little brother? He keeps asking questions, and when answered, he is never satisfied, always wanting more, and then trying to put words in your mouth. Case in point:

    >>So it is safe to conclude that the increased inventory is entirely due to decreased demand and not to more sellers listing their houses, right?

    No, it is NOT. Stop trolling. Nothing is due ENTIRELY to one factor. In this thread you have been presented with detailed plots and numbers. Stop asking inane and/or dishonest and troll-y questions and get real.

    Ha, you’re funny.

    I appreciate you posting the inventory numbers on a weekly basis, but my question wasn’t directed towards you. I was asking Kary, who seems to be willing to reach decisions based on facts and data rather than emotion, a question about what he thinks the other factors are. From a strictly mathematical point of view, inventory is simply a container with input and output, isn’t it? So if Kary’s numbers are correct, and new listings (input) is unchanged YOY, then don’t sales (output) have to be down? If i’m somehow wrong, and you can show me how without being a tool, please do so. I’m here to get a better understanding of the market, not to try to prove to other people that I’m always right.

  70. 820

    RE: Justme @ 791

    For the mls as a whole we know that 8,887 new listing numbers were issued from 3:45 a.m. on 8/31 to 4:58 p.m. today, because the listing numbers are sequential.

    I can see that 587 Condos have a list date of 9/1/2018 or later in King County. (That includes all statuses Kary if you use the List Date search field).

    I can see that 1,882 Residential not condo (includes 185 non-condo townhomes) were listed in King County since 9/1/2018.

    But as we have discussed before, if a new agent took over the listing during that time, it will appear as a “new listing” which is not the same as “new on market”.

  71. 821

    By Justme @ 810:<blockquoteNo, it is NOT. Stop trolling. Nothing is due ENTIRELY to one factor. In this thread you have been presented with detailed plots and numbers. Stop asking inane and/or dishonest and troll-y questions and get real.

    Pot meet kettle.

    It is not entirely due to one factor, and hardly the factor that you think it is at all! But go ahead and keep spewing out the “rushing to the exits” theory even if the data doesn’t support that.

  72. 822

    By Ardell DellaLoggia @ 815:

    But as we have discussed before, if a new agent took over the listing during that time, it will appear as a “new listing” which is not the same as “new on market”.

    I think it will show up as a new listing even if the same agent cancels and relists at a new price. So in that regard, new listings overstate the number. But for the numbers us agents can pull at any one point in time it wouldn’t include those that went pending since the start date of the search. So those searches would understate the number.

    What you almost need to do in order to get at what Eric is asking is do the agent search at the end of the month. That would show you how many new listings were added during the month that are still active. But I’m not sure even that would get you to the information Eric wants (a full accounting of the change in active listings from the beginning of a month to the end) and it clearly wouldn’t help with the YOY change. And there’s also the duplicate listings that enter the agent pulled data, which further complicates things (I suspect the NWMLS can back those out of the new listing data since they require approval and their inputting the second listing, but I don’t think they pull them out of the total active.)

    If you’re just looking at the August King County SFR data, the new listings YOY are up approximately 1,300, while the current actives are up over 1,800. So it’s not just new listings, even without accounting for the relisted properties. And the sold listings are down YOY by just over 1,100. So it’s not just reduced demand. And then you still need to account for new pendings, but as we get further into the year that matters less and less in the YOY change. The bottom line is I don’t think you can easily do an analysis that shows the causes of the change, like say you can do on a financial statement with cash flow.

    But the point is there are many possible reasons for the increased inventory: 1. More new listings; 2. Fewer sales; 3. Agents/sellers overpricing; 4. More duplicate listings; 5. More junk properties; and 6. Probably others. But the increased inventory is also not abnormal. What was abnormal was the inventory levels of the past three years.

    Numbers from NWMLS sources, but not compiled by or guaranteed by the NWMLS.

  73. 823

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 817

    “But for the numbers us agents can pull at any one point in time it wouldn’t include those that went pending since the start date of the search. So those searches would understate the number.”

    If you don’t check any of the status fields so that you get ALL status fields and put in List Date 9/1/2018+ you do get both the Actives and Pendings and anything that may have sold quickly, which is why my number is higher than yours.

    “I think it will show up as a new listing even if the same agent cancels and relists…” There is a fine for that, so it happens less and less. A few exceptions to the rule like a price drop of 5% or more all at the same time.

    As to being understated, since we don’t count the properties people sell off market it might balance out. Without bidding wars, expect to see more of that happening.

  74. 824

    By Ardell DellaLoggia @ 818:<blockquote"I think it will show up as a new listing even if the same agent cancels and relists…" There is a fine for that, so it happens less and less. A few exceptions to the rule like a price drop of 5% or more all at the same time.

    True, but it happens, and as you note if the price change is high enough it’s okay. Also, it can happen when the listing merely expires and the agent creates an entirely new listing rather than the more simple route of extending the listing.

    The main point though is that the new listings number overstates the real number by some unknown amount.

  75. 825

    By Ardell DellaLoggia @ 818

    Without bidding wars, expect to see more of that happening.

    I’ve mentioned before that the lack of bidding wars directly impacts the median, while perhaps not affecting value. Stated differently, that the reduced change of bidding wars (or less intense bidding wars) will lessen the chance of your selling your property for above FMV.

    But it occurred to me last night that there’s another factor at play. Agent/sellers overpricing results in the property in many cases selling for less than what it would have otherwise sold for if properly priced. That would have the opposite effect on the median as what bidding wars had, but again without indicating a change in value. It’s really just another form of the REO/short sale problems we saw years ago, where bad marketing practices reduced the prices obtained for some properties and thus affected the median. At least there we would easily calculate that effect–once the NWMLS made separate fields for REOS and short sales. But there is no field for “I’ve decided to overprice this listing.” ;-)

  76. 826
    Eastsider says:

    FYI -Increasing supply (+104.8%) and decreasing demand (-19.2%) => collapsing prices

    Lawler: Spotlight Seattle: Inventory Shortage Abating Rapidly
    https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2018/09/lawler-spotlight-seattle-inventory.html

    From housing economist Tom Lawler: Spotlight Seattle: Inventory Shortage Abating Rapidly

    Here are some August residential sales and listings statistics for the City of Seattle as compiled by the Northwest MLS.

    Residential Listings and Sales, City of Seattle, August 2018

    August-18 August-17 % Change
    Active Listings 1,464 715 104.8%
    Closed Sales 875 1083 -19.2%
    Pending Sales 875 1136 -23.0%

  77. 827

    By Eastsider @ 821:

    FYI -Increasing supply (+104.8%) and decreasing demand (-19.2%) => collapsing prices

    Reduced prices, yes, collapsing prices, not necessarily.

    Also, not sure what your numbers are from, but the 2017/2018 August active listings for King County SFR were 2,820/4667, which is not an increase of over 100%. And the sales numbers were 18,010/16,861, which is a reduction of about 6.4% by my calculations.

    And finally, technically the reduced sales are not synonymous with reduced demand. It’s merely lower sales volume, which is partially due to higher prices YOY, and I’m guessing higher interest rates.

    Numbers from NWMLS sources, but not guaranteed.

  78. 828

    RE: Eastsider @ 821

    I had to delete and re-do this comment. Need more coffee. :) Will run the numbers again.

    1,170 vs 928 for closed sales in Seattle. Kary can you see if you get that?

  79. 829
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 822 – The numbers are for Seattle, not King County. Got your coffee yet? The jury is still out on prices. We will find out about prices in 2 months when Case Shiller publishes its index. The index lags the market by about 3 months. Your comment on reduced sales are not synonymous with reduced demand is a bit idiotic, especially in face of doubling supply.

  80. 830

    RE: wreckingbull @ 780
    Did Your Stick Home Property Tax Go Up 40% in Two Years???

    Due to the structure assessment going up like 40% on your 2018 King County tax statement for property tax on your stick home? I bet it didn’t go up that rate on your stick home, my modular did.

    I added in the impact the article specifically has on Seattle area, not just nationally.

  81. 831

    By Eastsider @ 824:

    Your comment on reduced sales are not synonymous with reduced demand is a bit idiotic, especially in face of doubling supply.

    A bit technical, but claiming they are idiotic only shows your ignorance of proper terminology.

    If there were only one house for sale in a given period the volume sold would at most be one house. But that wouldn’t mean the demand was only one house. We’ve gone over this before, so you’re being a bit pfft-like.

  82. 832

    By Ardell DellaLoggia @ 823:

    RE: Eastsider @ 821

    I had to delete and re-do this comment. Need more coffee. :) Will run the numbers again.

    1,170 vs 928 for closed sales in Seattle. Kary can you see if you get that?

    I’m not getting those numbers, but it’s not really possible to be accurate in any event because the search would be by address not within the city limits of Seattle. Here’s where Eastsider’s numbers apparently come from:

    http://www.northwestmls.com/library/content/statistics/KCBreakouts.pdf

    But again, it’s not really surprising if Seattle has a larger drop than other areas given their income tax threat, manner of dealing with (ignoring?) homelessness, threatening established neighborhoods and other poor practices of the City of Seattle. I moved out of Seattle about 12 years ago now, and it was one of the best decisions I ever made. Back then my main complaints were virtually any lack of enforcement of neighborhood standards and the willingness of Seattle voters to vote for any tax no matter how stupid (Monorail).

  83. 833
    Ardell says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 826

    Actually, he’s correct. When the sold numbers reduced and inventory was nil at the end, we said the reduced sales did not indicate reduced demand. But now that standing inventory is increasing, reduced sales does in fact indicate reduced demand as does the vastly diminished number of bidding wars.

    I don’t think you are really questioning whether or not there is reduced demand as that would defy facts and logic to the extreme.

  84. 834

    RE: Ardell @ 828 – I am denying that, but to understand that fully you’d need to have an understanding of economics. It is fair to say that the backed up demand wasn’t what it appeared, or at least it has dissipated since those times. But sales volume is not demand, and your own example of the low supply impacting sales is an example of that.

    But to further explain, demand is an ever changing set of data points of different quantities at differing prices, shown on a graph as a line. So higher prices will reduce quantity sold (unless demand is “inelastic”) but that lower quantity sold is not a change in demand. The next day, week or month that line may move, showing either in increase or decrease in demand. None of the NWMLS statistics even begin to show that. Even if there were some statistical records of the number of offers made on each sold listing, that would not show demand.

  85. 835

    The Future of Seattle’s Horrifying Jammed Freeways

    It will get worse as we add more residents, illegal aliens and chain migrations from Microsoft. The lower birth rate in legal America citizens is our only hope. The carbon footprint goes WAY up with OVERPOPULATION too, far worse than cars.

    https://www.sfgate.com/news/article/Americans-commutes-keep-getting-longer-13236271.php

  86. 836

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 772 – LOL Kary

    I’ve grown wiser with time and learned to do much of my thinking above the belt now….LOL…BTW, which gender is into libido more? Men or women?

    My take is its women, but men can be very obsessed too…:-)

    Another great reason to be Christian and single…I don’t commit adultery [how could I, I made no vows] if I look and touch [without having to pluck my eye out or cut my hand off]…its OK for me, read Song of Solomans ;-0…..churches will rarely admit this Biblical fact either.

  87. 837
    Justme says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 815

    This comment has, IMO, the best and most complete Sep 2018 partial month KC data so far, with SFH and Condo breakouts. I think it is difficult to get anything more accurate without doing some pretty serious forensics. Thanks, Ardell.

    Most of the discussion that followed about the data in comment 815 did not produce any better data. There are imperfections and uncertainties. It is good to know what the imperfections and uncertainties are or might be, but the data is pretty good as is.

  88. 838
    Justme says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 821

    This data, for Seattle City and Aug 2018 versus 2017, is also about as good as it gets for monthly data. It is easy for readers to get confused about City of Seattle (CoS?) versus King County (KC), so thanks for keeping it straight.

    Correction: The immediately preeceding comment should referto 820 not 815. The lonk works and gets you to 820 even thiugh it says 815. Not sure what happened.

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 820

  89. 839
    Justme says:

    Correction: The immediately preceding comments should refer to 820 not 815. The link works and gets you to 820 even though it says 815. Not sure what happened.

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 820

    I ran out of time with the edits, typos galore ;).

  90. 840
    Eastsider says:

    By Ardell @ 833:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 826

    Actually, he’s correct. When the sold numbers reduced and inventory was nil at the end, we said the reduced sales did not indicate reduced demand. But now that standing inventory is increasing, reduced sales does in fact indicate reduced demand as does the vastly diminished number of bidding wars.

    I don’t think you are really questioning whether or not there is reduced demand as that would defy facts and logic to the extreme.

    Kary is extreme. We all know that. I don’t have time to dance around with him. Been there, done that.

  91. 841

    By Eastsider @ 840:

    Kary is extreme. We all know that. I don’t have time to dance around with him. Been there, done that.

    I am accurate, and while there are times I am hyper-technical, this is not one of them. Don’t use terms like “demand” unless you understand what the term means, particularly when there are other perfectly good and accurate terms, like “volume,” “units sold,” etc.

    But the fact remains the NWMLS stats do not show the actual demand, because for one thing they don’t track buyer offers at all other than on completed transactions.

  92. 842
    Eastsider says:

    30yr mortgage rate hits 52-week high and 10yr treasury yield spikes to 3.04% this morning. We may soon witness 10yr yield at level not seen since 2011. Will the economy cope with higher interest rates? The stock market appears to think so as it also moves higher this morning.

  93. 843
    Justme says:

    All that being said, Eric/uwp must be pleased with all the chaos and distraction that erupted as a result of their trolling. Great for blowing smoke all over the big picture.

  94. 844
    Justme says:

    And here is the big picture again, for those that missed it among all the smoke and mirrors.

    KC SFH Inventory 2017 versus 2018 so far: https://imgur.com/a/4XtFtSS
    KC Condo Inventory 2017 versus 2018 so far: https://imgur.com/rTodkR5

    Yes, this is just hourly inventory as sourced from Estately. It is not hourly new listings, hourly pendings, or anything else. But it paints a very interesting picture nonetheless. The contrast between 2017 and 2018 (so far) is very significant.

    If NWMLS would publish every database change with down-to-the-millisecond timestamps and TaxID, we could do better and know more. But they will not. So meanwhile, for an hourly look this is the best one can do. Occasional snapshots of (cumulative, end-of-month, etc) new listing counts are useful augmentations to the publicly available data.

  95. 845

    RE: Justme @ 843 – At least it was real estate related, and even related to local real estate. I found last week’s discussions rather boring.

    This is an interesting time, certainly much more interesting than the past two years, which were rather boring because it was just the same thing (lower inventory and higher prices). And you could argue that the local real estate market is actually healthier today than back when there were constant double-digit increases in price and constantly lower inventory.

    I was just looking at my “Market Watch” stats on the agent-only portion of the NWMLS website and there were almost as many price reductions and cancelations as there were new listings, and more of those than listings gone pending. The one thing I think that is rather clear is something I’ve been hitting on repeatedly, that agents/sellers got ahead of themselves and possibly that they didn’t know how to deal with a comp listed at $550k and selling at $600k. That’s a tough situation, but clearly the answer isn’t that the comp indicates that you should list at $600k. I suspect though there was a lot of that going on. When the inventory was continuing to decline you might be able to get away with that in some instances, but not in this market.

  96. 846
    Eric says:

    By Justme @ 843:

    All that being said, Eric/uwp must be pleased with all the chaos and distraction that erupted as a result of their trolling. Great for blowing smoke all over the big picture.

    Distraction? These were helpful people attempting to provide the best data they could, in order to answer a question I asked. Their responses were directly related to my question. How is that a distraction? We’re actually talking about real estate instead of who would win a steel cage deathmatch between Obama and Trump!

    And for what it’s worth, I hope you’re right, and that everyone in the metro area is about to list their house. But I’m not going to believe that’s happening just because it’s what I want. I want to see some data that explains what is going on, independent of emotion. And from what I think I’m reading here, the data might not exist to give perfectly clear answers. You, however, can choose to believe whatever you want; doesn’t matter to me.

    You can admit you overreacted in your initial post to me, or not. But this is the last time I’ll address it.

  97. 847
    KillianM says:

    RE: Justme @ 844 – Anyway you can post these numbers for Snohomish County?

  98. 848
    Longtime Listener First Time Caller says:

    Yes, don’t use terms like “demand” unless you understand what the term means, Kary. You took 26 words and still got it wrong.

    Demand is the desire of purchasers – six words!

    For discussion, I encourage the class to examine the following:

    Kary thought he was describing demand, and took 20 words to describe a graph. Could he have used fewer words and still been wrong?

    Kary used six more words to tell you he just described a graph, but in 26 words did he actually say anything about demand?

    What would Kary have to change in order to be right?

    Would it be acceptable for Kary to be condescending if he was right?

    What was the real goal of Kary’s post?

    Lastly, if demand is the desire of purchasers, and it can be expressed as a graph, and we want people to understand that a economic force, which we often measure graphically, is not actually represented in the discussion, does introducing price elasticity help people understand, or confuse them?

    Hints:

    A graph is by definition a diagram showing the relation between variable quantities, typically of two variables, each measured along one of a pair of axes at right angles.

    The graph of a function f is, formally, the set of all ordered pairs, such that x is in the domain of the function f, and, in practice, the graphical representation of this set.

  99. 849

    By Longtime Listener First Time Caller @ 848:

    Demand is the desire of purchasers – six words!

    Clearly incorrect, because there is no mention of price. But go ahead and think you know something that you don’t.

    And in the future if you think I’ve said something incorrect, please quote it and comment on it as I just did in my 9 word complete take down of your nonsense (highlighted portion above). I don’t even know what 26 words you’re referring to because you seemingly don’t know how to hit the quote or reply link, but despite that glaring deficiency you think you can talk about economics! LOL. And yes, by pointing out your lack of an ability to do something very simple I am being condescending. I say that in case you’re too dense to realize that.

  100. 850
    wreckingbull says:

    I am going to try this, so go easy.

    Inventory winds…
    Has real estate winter come?
    Kary is surly.

  101. 851

    RE: wreckingbull @ 850 – I just get a bit tired of complete moroons coming here and making stupid nonsense claims that waste my time. Seriously, I find the lack of intelligence and education of the first time caller to be annoying. They added nothing to the discussion.

  102. 852
    Joe says:

    RE: Justme @ 844

    Real estate is local. King County is a big place. Inventory in Seattle is growing 10% per week, while inventory in other parts of King County is relatively stable. Seattle is where the big changes are occurring. Sellers are truly rushing to the exits.

  103. 853
    Justme says:

    RE: KillianM @ 847

    @KillianM: Sure, but I should warn you that some of the Snohomish (and Pierce) data has some pretty significant holes in it, that is, dates and hours when no data was registered, probably due to some data source failure or download failure. The SFH data for 2017-2018 is pretty complete, but the Condo data is much less complete. Here goes:

    Snohomish County SFH Inventory 2017 versus 2018 so far: https://imgur.com/a/meZJeBT
    Snohomish County Condo Inventory 2017 versus 2018 so far: https://imgur.com/a/Di3NpMz

    Yes, this is just hourly inventory as sourced from Estately. It is not hourly new listings, hourly pendings, or anything else.

  104. 854
    Justme says:

    RE: Joe @ 852

    That sounds about right.

  105. 855
    Notme says:

    Above us only clouds
    imagine all the people
    living life in moss

    -a john lennon bubble haiku

  106. 856
    kenmorem says:

    anyone have a total # of posts update for kary on this thread? i’m thinking it’s around 150-200 (17-23%).

  107. 857
    Longtime Listener First Time Caller says:

    Kary, you were quibbling with people about which statistics best indicate the amount of demand in the market for housing. You did not like the indicators others were using, and used this to as vehicle for a self-righteous lecture about economic phenomena straight out of 101.

    Whether you know it or not, rhetorically what you did was meant as a distraction, an insult and chance for you to show everyone else how smart you think you are.

    It was funny because in the act of being arrogant, you were actually wrong – factually incorrect! In difficult to follow and less than concise terms, you described a graph, thats all you described, a graph, not demand, and not the law of demand.

    Again, in a discussion over the best descriptive statistic or leading indicators for measuring demand for housing in the present, you launched into what you thought was a lecture about the Law of Demand, which, might I add, is something I think most people on this board understand and don’t need you to mess up for them.

    Yes, generally speaking, the higher the price, the less people will consume of a good. And because of price elasticity, some goods face steeper curves than other goods, so what?

    Focus: what does that statistic, or set of statistics, should someone use for trying to measure present demand in the Northwest Realestate Market?

    The notion that you knew the answer to that question was your jumping off point for your little parade.

  108. 858
    kenmorem says:

    kary stats:
    page 1: 40 / 250
    page 2: 26 / 250
    page 3: 15 / 250
    page 4: 27 / 108

    total: 108 / 858 = 12.6%

    slacking by his standards. still oppressive to the rest of us.

  109. 859
    KillianM says:

    RE: Justme @ 853 – Thanks for the update. I understand this is simply an hour by hour representation of existing inventory, but if integrated over long enough time period, this data set will filter out the inventory effects attributed to new for-sale-units, and pending-units that could be weighing the trend one way or another.
    Again, over a long enough period of time, the filtered graph will yield a significant trend.
    Next two months will be telling.

  110. 860

    RE: Erik @ 769
    I Hate Politics Too Erik

    But I need to protect my back [pocketbook] or some low life will grab from the piggy bank….LOL

    When did we get to the point in life where difference in opinions ruined friendships? My best friend since age 5 called me a “F*5?!# Fascist” for supporting my tax breaks [Trump]….we haven’t talked since Nov 2016. Friendships used to include discussions of political differences that were entertaining and fun; and guess what, back then we sometimes changed the other’s opinion. Now he won’t talk to me, I’m the Fascist?

    BTW, IMO the open border folks are the Fascists, changing laws on the books and railroading the economy in only one party agenda, open border [and Socialism]. I define the Confederates as the NWO; because they were actually renamed that in today’s history [John Wilkes Boothe Secret Society renamed today] and they support foreign slavery for the rich elite [hence, they’re also alike].

    The MSM hates actuals and real history….I love the truth. MAGA is fine with me, why is it evil?

  111. 861

    RE: Longtime Listener First Time Caller @ 857
    Be Patient With Kary

    He’s made great progress on the SB…when he blogged a decade ago he irritated me too….I thought he was too establishment brainwashed. I like Kary now and yes, if I needed a real estate attorney I’d go to him first because I he has changed quite a bit IMO. Trust is more than just looking ’em up in the yellow pages.

    If you read my past blogs, you know I’m not that fond of attorney fees and endless bills in federal government debt useless hearings for open border immigration attorneys. That accomplish nothing too. I rarely vote a candidate now that is an attorney, they are too self serving IMO. They should stick to law on the books and truth.

  112. 862

    RE: S-Crow @ 814
    Hey S-Crow

    If I need help with selling in Seattle, you’d be the first Escrow Folk I’d hire. Keep blogging along and I gave a speech in Toastmasters Kent City Hall last Thursday. It was on “How to Relax”. It could be a two week seminar…LOL

    BTW, the ones living past 100 all agree on one thing in general [and it wasn’t diet, being married, smoking or alcohol]. It was learning how to relax that is the key to long life. Truth data is clear, the early retirees live longer. DNA is the real reason for long life….perhaps the good DNA allows us to relax? We need more research on this area, even if we have the bad DNA [its somewhat hopeless IOWs], working on this issue can’t hurt if you get quality of life alone.

    Did public schools miss this truth too? LOL

  113. 863
    wreckingbull says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 862 – Kary and Ardell are good resources to have here in the comment section. In the 2006-2007 era, most agents showed up here to call us losers and basement-dwellers.

    One in particular got so butt-hurt at the idea of a bubble blog that he started his own anti-Tim posts:

    And I quote:

    “Ok, I admit it, I went and read a bubble blog. … I fore-soothed I would see the babbling and whining of children. See the little boy pout. His name is Tim. He posts on the bubble blogs. … Sorry Timmy, sorry Robbie, watch out Alessey, people have to grow up someday.

    Perhaps a better solution kids, is to just grow up and be good kids. Get some education. Learn some disclipine. Save some money. Be a hard worker. And stop whining and crying and pouting, especially on line.”

    I will leave it as an exercise to the reader to remember who this was. The rich part is that while this guy typed this, Tim was stashing cash, as an engineer, to be later spent on a home at post-bubble prices.

  114. 864

    By Longtime Listener First Time Caller @ 857:

    Kary, you were quibbling with people about which statistics best indicate the amount of demand in the market for housing. .

    No, that’s not what I was doing. I’m not trying to determine the demand for the housing market, and in fact I’ve stated that none of our statistics indicate the demand. That was pretty clear. Instead I’m trying to determine what is affecting our market the most. In post 822 I mentioned five possible causes of the increased inventory. That you don’t even understand what I’m discussing is very telling.

    From post 834

    But to further explain, demand is an ever changing set of data points of different quantities at differing prices, shown on a graph as a line. So higher prices will reduce quantity sold (unless demand is “inelastic”) but that lower quantity sold is not a change in demand. The next day, week or month that line may move, showing either in increase or decrease in demand. None of the NWMLS statistics even begin to show that. Even if there were some statistical records of the number of offers made on each sold listing, that would not show demand.

    I’m not going to count whether those are the 26 words you referred to earlier, but they apparently went over your head.

    Demand did come up in that I raised the issue of terminology in post 827, pointing out that volume is not synonymous with demand. And that was merely raising the issue as an aside, not a distraction, but I can see how a simple point would be distracting to you.

    Now stop wasting my time with your less than intelligent comments. You don’t have a clue what you’re talking about and what I write is above your comprehension.

  115. 865
    Justme says:

    RE: wreckingbull @ 863

    I could not resist doing a little searching, and the answer is:

    Larry Cragun at RealEstateUndressed, October 16, 2007: The Trouble With The Bubble Talk
    http://realestateundressed.com/2007/10/16/the-trouble-with-the-bubble-talk/
    Never mind that link, it gives a 404 Error: Page Not Found

    More gems here, and some familiar, and many unfamiliar (to me), names in the comment section.

    https://seattlebubble.com/blog/2010/12/10/friday-flashback-seattles-housing-bubble-all-star-team/

    Nice haiku, BTW.

    UPDATE: It appears that Larry Cragun is now listing properties in Utah. The other Larry Cragun that comes up is about 31 years old and a convicted axe-murderer in Idaho. That could not possibly be the Realtor, could it?

    https://www.realtor.com/realestateagents/Larry-Cragun___1933884

  116. 866
    wreckingbull says:

    RE: Justme @ 865 – I am pretty sure he was an elderly dude, so I think your first link is likely the one.

    There was also a agent named Mack who wrote a ‘rap’ about us. While cringeworthy, it was mildly entertaining. At least that guy was less mean and even a little likable. I seem to recall he was the one who liked the throw around the basement-dweller accusations. I’d imagine there is a Friday Flashback about him too.

  117. 867
    uwp says:

    Mack McCoy back in 2007:
    “The people on this board have extensive experience in the real estate world, and while there may be differences of opinion among them, the fact is that their opinions deserve to carry more weight than those of the amateurs who blog as a hobby.”

    “There are other sites and blogs, some staffed by experts, some by amateurs. If you think that the amateurs have somehow discovered the secrets that the Real Estate Cartel has been trying to keep from you, let me suggest to you that perhaps we’re just letting them think that those are the important secrets.”

    Good stuff.

  118. 868
    Blake says:

    RE: uwp @ 867
    Great stuff uwp…
    Wreckingbull… justme… ardell… kary…
    Very interesting.
    Thx

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