NWMLS: Inventory continues to climb as sales slow

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September market stats were published by the NWMLS today. Home prices have leveled off as sales continue to slip and inventory piles up. Year-over-year listing growth hit its highest level ever as the number of homes on the market reached its highest level since January 2012.

Before we get into our detailed monthly stats, here’s a quick look at their press release.

Balance “finally returning” to housing market as buyers welcome more choices, moderating prices
Housing inventory continued to improve during September while the pace of sales slowed in many counties served by Northwest Multiple Listing Service. “Balance is finally returning to the market, and with it, slowing home price growth,” stated OB Jacobi, president of Windermere Real Estate.

J. Lennox Scott, chairman and CEO of John L. Scott Real Estate, encouraged would-be buyers to “put extra focus on October,” which he described as the last great month for new listings until March 2019. “Over the winter, new monthly resale listings will lower by approximately 50 percent compared to summer months.” He also noted interest rates, currently in the upper 4 percent, are projected to rise in the coming months.

Despite slower sales, Northwest MLS spokespeople remain upbeat.

“The housing market close to the job centers has gone from a historic extreme-frenzy market in the spring down a few levels of hotness to a strong level of pending sales activity for new listings,” said Scott.

When is J. Lennox Scott ever not “upbeat” about the prospects for the housing market?

Trick question! The answer is never!

CAUTION

NWMLS monthly reports include an undisclosed and varying number of
sales from previous months in their pending and closed sales statistics.

Here’s your King County SFH summary, with the arrows to show whether the year-over-year direction of each indicator is favorable or unfavorable news for buyers and sellers (green = favorable, red = unfavorable):

September 2018 Number MOM YOY Buyers Sellers
Active Listings 5,213 +11.7% +67.9%
Closed Sales 1,833 -23.1% -27.0%
SAAS (?) 1.73 +20.5% +47.9%
Pending Sales 2,244 -7.7% -18.0%
Months of Supply 2.84 +45.3% +130.2%
Median Price* $668,000 -0.1% +6.9%

Here’s the graph of inventory with each year overlaid on the same chart.

King County SFH Inventory

Inventory rose twelve percent from August to September, and was up 67.9 percent from last year. Before this year, the highest year-over-year inventory gain was 61.3 percent way back in February 2008. The last time there were over 5,000 homes on the market at the end of September was in 2012.

Here’s the chart of new listings:

King County SFH New Listings

New listings were up eight percent from a year ago, and edged up slightly from August to September, which is fairly typical for this time of year.

Here’s your closed sales yearly comparison chart:

King County SFH Closed Sales

Closed sales fell 23 percent between August and September. Last year over the same period closed sales dropped 10 percent. Year-over-year closed sales were down 27 percent—the largest drop since November 2010.

King County SFH Pending Sales

Pending sales were down eight percent from August to September, and were down 18 percent year-over-year.

Here’s the supply/demand YOY graph. “Demand” in this chart is represented by closed sales, which have had a consistent definition throughout the decade (unlike pending sales from NWMLS).

King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY

We’re now in totally uncharted territory for listings. We’ve never seen them growing this quickly year-over-year.

Here’s the median home price YOY change graph:

King County SFH YOY Price Change

Year-over-year home price changes edged up from August to September, only because last year prices fell in September but this year they were basically flat, as you can see in the next chart.

And lastly, here is the chart comparing King County SFH prices each month for every year back to 1994 (not adjusted for inflation).

King County SFH Prices

September 2018: $668,000
July 2007: $481,000 (previous cycle high)

5.00 avg. rating (90% score) - 1 vote

About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. Tim also hosts the weekly improv comedy sci-fi podcast Dispatches from the Multiverse.

45 comments:

  1. 1
    ohd1122 says:

    Inventory jumps 11%, months of supply jumps 45%, median price drops 0.1%. I think we still have a ways to go before buyers can really claim relief.

  2. 2
    Justme says:

    Wow, the KC/SFH NWMLS-sourced end-of-month listing inventory just blasted through the Sep-2012 level.

    That’s even more impressive than what the Estately numbers are saying (equal to Sep 2014).

  3. 3
    N says:

    @ Ohd1122 – Good call out on the mere 0.1% price drop. With a typical close schedule these would have been homes going under contract back in July and August. But looking at the full year in Tim’s chart the YTD increase has dropped from nearly 20% to under 7%. Also those are KC stats and by most accounts the city of Seattle has dropped much more.

    I looked at Redfin medium price data in a link someone had posted for the Genessee neighborhood in West Seattle and it showed a peak $800k earlier this year down to $681k now. I imagine on a neighborhood level it is not alone in such drops.

  4. 4
    Brian says:

    It’s frankly quite amazing how closely the slope of these graphs look for 2007 vs 2018.

  5. 5
    pfft says:

    Remember like in 2007 it’s just a pause in a hot market. A little bit of cooling off is good.

  6. 6
    ohd1122 says:

    @N-3

    Yes, thanks for reminding me of the lag of 1-2 months…what we are seeing in September is inventory levels at the end of September but prices which were agreed upon awhile ago. Given where we are in the year price decreases probably won’t become super apparent until the Spring.

    I also agree that neighborhoods will react differently if indeed we are in the beginnings of a stabilization. Peripheral neighborhoods like mine in Kent will see downward pressure much earlier and harder than, say, core Seattle/Bellevue, particularly in higher price points ($750K+). Homes that are priced “fairly” (interpret that as you will) at lower price points (<$400K) still seem to be going steadily as there is a lot of pent up demand anywhere at that price.

  7. 7
    N says:

    Seattle times story on September –
    https://www.seattletimes.com/business/real-estate/as-sales-plunge-king-county-home-inventory-has-biggest-jump-on-record/

    The slowdown in the market, now six months in the making, continued in September when the number of single-family homes on the market in King County jumped 68 percent from a year prior, the biggest increase on record dating back to 2000, according to new data. Only San Jose saw the number of homes for sale jump faster than Seattle among major U.S. metro areas last month.

    Sales dropped 27 percent across King County, the biggest decline since 2010, when the market was still in freefall, according to the Northwest Multiple Listing Service’s monthly report, released Thursday.

    Both inventory and sales activity are now all the way back to 2012 levels, when the housing market was just starting to come out of its failed state following the recession. Prices, however, remain nearly double 2012 levels.

    Another way of putting it: Someone who bought a $700,000 house a year ago, at lower interest rates, is paying the same monthly mortgage bill as someone who buys a $640,000 house at today’s higher rates.

  8. 8

    I’m glad Tim did the graphs this month. It puts things in perspective for those with little perspective.

    While inventory is up, it is only up to the level we were complaining about when inventory started dropping. Rather amazing how far and how long it dropped.

    Most everything else like new listings is in the middle of the range, or in other words average, typical, etc., except of course price. But the inventory is still low–it has a way to go to recover.

  9. 9

    By N @ 7:

    Another way of putting it: Someone who bought a $700,000 house a year ago, at lower interest rates, is paying the same monthly mortgage bill as someone who buys a $640,000 house at today’s higher rates.

    Unless they paid $800,000 for that house in a bidding war. ;-)

    I think you do raise a good point though. People try to focus on whether it’s fewer buyers or more sellers, but the cost to buy has gone up for those who are not cash buyers.

  10. 10

    By pfft @ 5:

    Remember like in 2007 it’s just a pause in a hot market. A little bit of cooling off is good.

    pfft tried to post something about real estate? And he’s actually pretending to recall something from more than a month ago? Who hijacked pfft’s account?

  11. 11

    By Brian @ 4:

    It’s frankly quite amazing how closely the slope of these graphs look for 2007 vs 2018.

    You need to be more specific. Price peaked much earlier this year, while new inventory is similar, so far. If it continues to follow 2007 that will be bad. New listings is a mess–too hard to see any year!

  12. 12

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 9
    With Higher Interest Rates in 2019

    The math predictions on this article are all shooting from the hip IMO. I’d wait for the hurricane to get past Puerto Rico and let things settle a bit before we get the death count with a root cause anomaly, was it current nature or old bad debt the root cause?

    Owners can sit for a bit and wait for the island to get rebuilt and retain their equity….or run like Hades for the exit door? LOL

    It ain’t over until the fat lady sings…

  13. 13
    N says:

    @ Kary 9 – just to be clear those are not my words but the ST reporter.

  14. 14
  15. 15
    steven says:

    tim can you post a interactive graph where you can eliminate some of the data? with some of the lines i can’t tell which line is which year. the ones i’m interested are inventory/closing/pending. thanks!

  16. 16
    pfft says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 10:

    By pfft @ 5:

    Remember like in 2007 it’s just a pause in a hot market. A little bit of cooling off is good.

    pfft tried to post something about real estate? And he’s actually pretending to recall something from more than a month ago? Who hijacked pfft’s account?

    kary still on pace to have between 25% and 33% of all replies in a new post?

  17. 17
    steven says:

    RE: pfft @ 16

    yup and you are right behind him. Scientifically, i understand what you are saying but realistically kary and tim are probably right. if rate of bike commutes are lower, it’s likely that the ridership is lower as well. of course, it’s not the same and you can prove them wrong but until i see such a study i’ll go with common sense.

  18. 18

    By pfft @ 16:

    kary still on pace to have between 25% and 33% of all replies in a new post?

    Still on pace to be 100% stupid pathetic troll on every post?

  19. 19

    By steven @ 17:

    RE: pfft @ 16

    yup and you are right behind him. Scientifically, i understand what you are saying but realistically kary and tim are probably right. if rate of bike commutes are lower, it’s likely that the ridership is lower as well. of course, it’s not the same and you can prove them wrong but until i see such a study i’ll go with common sense.

    But instead it’s pfft’s choice to call me a “liar” over that issue in the other thread because he doesn’t know the meaning of simple words. Pathetic, but our education system sucks, so that’s what we get.

  20. 20
    Matt P says:

    Would you two just drop it? It’s beyond childish.

    From Apr-Sep, the inventory line is nearly straight, so rate of change is constant. Typically, October is when it drops no matter how the market looks overall. Watch out below if that line continues going up or even just stays flat.

    By the way, Tim, it bothers me that the lines on the graph don’t line up. For instance, on the inventory graph, the 2007 line ends at 8k, but the 2008 graph starts at 9k. They should be the same since the end of 2008 is the start of 2009 or is it the case that the end of each line is 12/31 and the beginning of each is 1/31?

  21. 21
    Millennial Engineer says:

    By Matt P @ 20:

    Would you two just drop it? It’s beyond childish.

    From Apr-Sep, the inventory line is nearly straight, so rate of change is constant. Typically, October is when it drops no matter how the market looks overall. Watch out below if that line continues going up or even just stays flat.

    By the way, Tim, it bothers me that the lines on the graph don’t line up. For instance, on the inventory graph, the 2007 line ends at 8k, but the 2008 graph starts at 9k. They should be the same since the end of 2008 is the start of 2009 or is it the case that the end of each line is 12/31 and the beginning of each is 1/31?

    1) Agreed on the various bickering. Especially when it’s carried over from a previous thread.

    2) I think you are correct about why the data lines do not align –they are offset by a month.

    I agree with others that noted the graphs are becoming difficult to read. For me it is particularly hard (red-green color blind) and most of the lines are sorted by color. I can see how the current year trend compares to those previous, but it’s near impossible to tell which years it might be mimicking. For some charts, culling the data to some benchmark years (2000, 2007, 2008, 2012) and perhaps the last 3 might be reasonable. Or perhaps using the Tableau interactive charts, similar to the CS-data would also work.

  22. 22
    Justme says:

    RE: Matt P @ 20

    Right, it is because all the inventory numbers are end-of-month.

  23. 23
    pfft says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 19:

    By steven @ 17:

    RE: pfft @ 16

    yup and you are right behind him. Scientifically, i understand what you are saying but realistically kary and tim are probably right. if rate of bike commutes are lower, it’s likely that the ridership is lower as well. of course, it’s not the same and you can prove them wrong but until i see such a study i’ll go with common sense.

    But instead it’s pfft’s choice to call me a “liar” over that issue in the other thread because he doesn’t know the meaning of simple words. Pathetic, but our education system sucks, so that’s what we get.

    You jumped to conclusions based on incomplete data. That is a Kary problem not a pfft problem.

    If 2 pointers are down does that mean scoring is down? We don’t know, maybe teams are taking and making more 3 pointers. We have incomplete data. If home runs are down is runs scored down? Maybe but who knows?

  24. 24
    pfft says:

    By steven @ 17:

    RE: pfft @ 16

    yup and you are right behind him. Scientifically, i understand what you are saying but realistically kary and tim are probably right. if rate of bike commutes are lower, it’s likely that the ridership is lower as well. of course, it’s not the same and you can prove them wrong but until i see such a study i’ll go with common sense.

    Suppose that people would rather ride the train to work and get work done during the commute and then ride recreationally after work, to the store or on the weekends? Sorry but I won’t jump to conclusions. Your conclusion is not terrible we just need more data.

  25. 25
    pfft says:

    I mean it couldn’t be any clearer or easier to understand. The answer is in the title of the article.

    “Seattle bike commuting hits 10-year low, census data show”

  26. 26
    steven says:

    RE: pfft @ 25

    if you can’t reasonably extrapolate especially when i explained in layman’s term, it’s the end of discussion. is there a way to block some individuals’ posts?

  27. 27
    Jason says:

    @Kary – new posts are coming fast, so the discussion has been fracturing, so this isn’t a real reply to a comment in this thread. As relates to FMV and bidding wars, I’m wondering if our disagreement is less about the definition of FMV than “bidding war”. As a super frustrated potential buyer, I’m looking at bidding war as “a bunch of people are going make offers (as happens every danm time), and the most outrageous one will actually land the property.” I’m wondering if you’re referring to two individuals stubbornly re-raising, way past what the rest of the bunch of offers with escalation clauses were willing to do?

    I think I imagine a multiple offer situation as a bidding war, since the house seems like it is sold at auction. That seems to describe most houses I’ve been interested in. I’m not sure that’s what you’re talking about when you want C-S to exclude?

  28. 28
    wreckingbull says:

    By steven @ 26:

    RE: pfft @ 25

    if you can’t reasonably extrapolate especially when i explained in layman’s term, it’s the end of discussion. is there a way to block some individuals’ posts?

    You will soon learn there are certain commenters here you might wish to avoid. Actually, you just did learn that . Our friend Kary is still learning that lesson too, apparently :)

  29. 29

    By Millennial Engineer @ 21:

    Or perhaps using the Tableau interactive charts, similar to the CS-data would also work.

    Ding, ding, ding, we have a winner.

    Having never used Tableau I don’t know what’s involved in converting from one system to the other, but if it’s not too difficult that would be fantastic! It would also be nice if in addition to deselecting individual years you had the option of selecting the last 5 and/or last 10 years.

  30. 30

    RE: Jason @ 27

    While I don’t agree with Kary, it isn’t odd for him to want C-S to exclude something abnormal. Their methodology does strip out many market sales that appear to be flips. If a house sells at $500,000 and
    4 months later comes back and sells at $850,000 , C-S normally chooses not to count…either sale I believe. Arms length…but still C-S excludes them.

    There are some sales that appear to be “bidding wars” that are not. One buyer “jumped in front of the train” on day one of a 4 to 6 day review period with an offer that was $100,000 over asking. Basically they paid the seller $100,000 to not wait to see if there would be other offers. This is not a “one-off” situation and was part of market conditions.

    The best example I can recall of “…two individuals stubbornly re-raising, way past what the rest of the bunch…” was back in 2015 when the Montlake house listed for just under $900,000 sold for $1,600,000 with purportedly (it was in the Seattle Times) only 2 offers. Maybe it had other offers closer to the asking price, but only 2 guys taking it up to almost double.

    Conversely I remember another sale that made the Seattle Times because it had 46 offers and sold for about $350,000 over asking, but it was in fact severely and unintentionally underpriced. In that case there was a group that relied on the asking price being valid, and bid the normal amount over that and then a 2nd group who knew the real fair market value and who bid up over that. I know this one as I was in that 2nd group and knew other agents in the first group. The details in the newspaper article didn’t point out the disparity between the two groups.

    I would let Kary win the C-S shouldn’t include them argument, because he’s not going to convince Case Shiller and he is correct that they do choose to include some things and not others.

    But to suggest that they be excluded from more accurate and all inclusive data, like his stats or my stats or The Tim’s stats…well, then no.

    As we try to unravel the market accurately for any given neighborhood moving forward, yes we would exclude a one off of two guys getting into a pissing match and ending up at double the asking price. Maybe we we throw that sale out. Maybe we just take it with a grain of salt. But for King County Median Price vs Case Shiller, no reason to disregard the multiple offers and the bidding wars. You are correct that they are not the same, but only the agent in the room of each one knows the difference when it happens. So even if we wanted to make the distinction, broadly, it isn’t possible to parse the stats accurately in trying to determine which bid ups to include and which not to include.

    Even in the examples I gave of one selling at $1,600,000 listed at $880,000 and the other selling at $905,000 listed at $580,000, the 2nd would be an accurate sale and the first likely not. So even if Kary is 100% correct in theory…it’s just an academic argument so it’s not an argument. It’s his opinion. Let him have an opinion even if he doesn’t let others have theirs. :)

  31. 31

    By pfft @ 23:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 19:

    By steven @ 17:

    RE: pfft @ 16

    yup and you are right behind him. Scientifically, i understand what you are saying but realistically kary and tim are probably right. if rate of bike commutes are lower, it’s likely that the ridership is lower as well. of course, it’s not the same and you can prove them wrong but until i see such a study i’ll go with common sense.

    But instead it’s pfft’s choice to call me a “liar” over that issue in the other thread because he doesn’t know the meaning of simple words. Pathetic, but our education system sucks, so that’s what we get.

    You jumped to conclusions based on incomplete data.

    No, I just reported what the data said without reporting the limitations of the data as part of a post that mentioned 17 things Seattle did that were stupid. I didn’t provide detail on any of the 17, but in any case as was previously discussed when this came up I consider the commuting data to be the important data. Hopefully Seattle isn’t investing millions of dollars in bike infrastructure to deal with non-peak pleasure biking.

    But again, regardless, your ignorance of that, and seemingly ignorance of even the study I was talking about does not excuse your use of the term “liar.” I know the political left and Trump like to throw that term around, but it’s not only insulting, it’s ignorant. LIar is a simple term that you are too seemingly either tooo ignorant or too stupid to understand. Or it could be that you’re just a troll and do it purposefully. That’s probably the most likely given you’re trollish tendencies. So it is a pfft problem, because you’re a troll.

  32. 32

    By Jason @ 27:

    @Kary – new posts are coming fast, so the discussion has been fracturing, so this isn’t a real reply to a comment in this thread. As relates to FMV and bidding wars, I’m wondering if our disagreement is less about the definition of FMV than “bidding war”. As a super frustrated potential buyer, I’m looking at bidding war as “a bunch of people are going make offers (as happens every danm time), and the most outrageous one will actually land the property.” I’m wondering if you’re referring to two individuals stubbornly re-raising, way past what the rest of the bunch of offers with escalation clauses were willing to do?

    I think I imagine a multiple offer situation as a bidding war, since the house seems like it is sold at auction. That seems to describe most houses I’ve been interested in. I’m not sure that’s what you’re talking about when you want C-S to exclude?

    A bidding war can take many forms, but at the heart what I’m trying to describe is a buyer frenzy driving up the price. Irrational behavior. Sometimes that was brought on intentionally by pricing too low, sometimes it was just the lack of inventory in a neighborhood and too many cash buyers, and sometimes it was just happenstance (unusual activity for the neighborhood and price range). Regardless of why, it was very good for the particular seller.

  33. 33

    By Ardell DellaLoggia @ 30:

    RE: Jason @ 27

    While I don’t agree with Kary, it isn’t odd for him to want C-S to exclude something abnormal. Their methodology does strip out many market sales that appear to be flips. If a house sells at $500,000 and
    4 months later comes back and sells at $850,000 , C-S normally chooses not to count…either sale I believe. Arms length…but still C-S excludes them.

    I have refined what I said a bit since that original position. I realized it might be very difficult for C-S to determine which ones are bidding war situations, which would leave them with the option of merely tightening their existing specs on when to throw out pairs. That might be a good idea anyway (no opinion), but my other alternative was just to recognize that the bidding wars were affecting the numbers the same as you can recognize that distressed properties impacted the median back in the day. The difference is, once the NWMLS started coding distressed properties you could not only recognize that impact you could easily quantify that impact With C-S their is no such option.

    In simple terms the last alternative is just to recognize that things were probably not as good a year or two ago as what C-S data would suggest, just as things were not as bad in 2010 as what their data suggested.

    Finally, something unstated so far is that C-S probably has been throwing out many bidding war situations, using the same methodology that they use to throw out flips. But with the prior sale having been further out it would be less likely that they would see the gain as being suspect. Also, they do through out sales that are too low too–it doesn’t just work one direction.

  34. 34
    uwp says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 8:

    I’m glad Tim did the graphs this month. It puts things in perspective for those with little perspective.

    While inventory is up, it is only up to the level we were complaining about when inventory started dropping. Rather amazing how far and how long it dropped.

    Most everything else like new listings is in the middle of the range, or in other words average, typical, etc., except of course price. But the inventory is still low–it has a way to go to recover.

    This is what I’ve been saying for the past few months, but I’m just a Bubble Cheerleader, so what do I know?

    If inventory doesn’t start dropping into the end of the year, that would bring another level of concern; but as of right now, things are looking normal…ish for the first time in a while.

    People want to compare the slope of this year’s inventory growth to 2007, but also want to ignore the fact that there was more than twice as many homes for sale in 2007.

    We still have less inventory on the market than 11 of the last 18 years.

  35. 35

    By uwp @ 33:

    People want to compare the slope of this year’s inventory growth to 2007, but also want to ignore the fact that there was more than twice as many homes for sale in 2007.

    And as I noted in a later post, that inventory fell dramatically after this in 2007, so if we are following 2007 that is not good news (unless you’ll be selling).

    One other thing. The Times is reporting it’s the greatest percentage increase ever, but that is easy when you’re dealing with low numbers. Has anyone looked to see if it’s the greatest nominal increase too? Tim’s post above is unclear what he’s referring to.

  36. 36

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 32
    Get an Independent Appraiser and Challenge Your Property Tax

    Hardly no one does it [do they think high property taxes mean higher selling price too?…LOL]….how can the courts argue with any data averaged for the neighborhood, excluding no “cherry picked low ball” units…??? I’m assuming the county tax assessors included the “cherry picked high ball”….I know I would if I were the county….

    The tax courts are as mixed up as we are. So its slam dunk your case will win on a confusion factor. A good reason to make laws on the books mandatory, when they’re understandable….which in this case they probably aren’t…LOL

  37. 37

    RE: softwarengineer @ 35 – It often isn’t worth the effort for a homeowner because the savings will only be several hundred dollars and might disappear the next year.

    But yes the Board of Tax Appeals is rather backed up and not a fully funded unit. The McCleary fix probably made things even worse for them.

  38. 38

    Here’s an interesting article on the Amazon wage increase that discusses a seldom discussed impact of these wage increases–the impact on those already making $15 an hour. Apparently they are getting their wages increased by $1 an hour, but they’re still not happy. The thing is if you were a more highly skilled laborer than those making say $8 an hour before, you’re not going to be happy that you’re now only making less than 10% more than them. Oh, and they apparently got those other benefits taken away too, so for them it’s hardly a matter of whether they are making more or less, they are more likely to actually be making less now.

    https://komonews.com/news/business/amazons-15-an-hour-a-win-not-so-some-veteran-workers-say

  39. 39
    Justme says:

    RE: uwp @ 34

    >>want to ignore the fact that there was more than twice as many homes for sale in 2007.

    In other words, we are not quite in that big 2007-2011 selling panic mode yet. But what’s the hurry, the current amount of panic will do until the real panic gets here.

    >>We still have less inventory on the market than 11 of the last 18 years.

    Not this nonsense again. We have more end-of-month inventory in Sep-2018 than all preceding 6 years back to and including 2012. Readers will do well not to ignore the massive trend change this year represents. Besides, keep in mind the very elevated inventory in the 2007-2011 selling panic skews the statistic of rank.

  40. 40
    uwp says:

    By Justme @ 39:

    RE:
    In other words, we are not quite in that big 2007-2011 selling panic mode yet.

    “Not quite”

    Did you know that if we have another YOY of inventory gains like this year – ie. “YOY listing growth at it’s highest ever,” then next September we will still have 2,000 less listings than 2007.

  41. 41
    pfft says:

    By steven @ 26:

    RE: pfft @ 25

    if you can’t reasonably extrapolate especially when i explained in layman’s term, it’s the end of discussion. is there a way to block some individuals’ posts?

    Why would I reasonably extrapolate with incomplete data?

    This is absolute MADNESS. Read the title of the article.

  42. 42
    pfft says:

    By uwp @ 34:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 8:

    We still have less inventory on the market than 11 of the last 18 years.

    The direction is not a good one.

  43. 43

    By Justme @ 39:

    RE: uwp @ 34

    >>want to ignore the fact that there was more than twice as many homes for sale in 2007.

    In other words, we are not quite in that big 2007-2011 selling panic mode yet..

    I don’t know why you like to focus so much on the selling side. 2007-2011 was more about lack of buyer interest than sellers. The high inventory in 2007 started well before there were any problems in the market–most likely the then near record or record high prices bringing sellers into the market, but hardly in a panic.

    As to your claim of “nonsense” that I didn’t quote, that’s only nonsense if you haven’t looked at the graphs above.

  44. 44

    By pfft @ 42:

    By uwp @ 34:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 8:

    We still have less inventory on the market than 11 of the last 18 years.

    The direction is not a good one.

    Wow, you really should try to stay out of the real estate area. Although I guess you’re consistent since you don’t understand politics, economics or the world in general either.

    The direction is clearly good, unless of course you’re a seller hoping for that chance to sell above FMV in a bidding war. The market was very unhealthy at the inventory levels of the last three or so years, so yes it’s a very good direction. It would become bad if there’s an over-correction.

  45. 45
    pfft says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 44:

    By pfft @ 42:

    By uwp @ 34:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 8:

    We still have less inventory on the market than 11 of the last 18 years.

    The direction is not a good one.

    Wow, you really should try to stay out of the real estate area. Although I guess you’re consistent since you don’t understand politics, economics or the world in general either.

    The direction is clearly good, unless of course you’re a seller hoping for that chance to sell above FMV in a bidding war. The market was very unhealthy at the inventory levels of the last three or so years, so yes it’s a very good direction. It would become bad if there’s an over-correction.

    kary you are giving the same argument that was made in the run up to the crash. The market was overheated and it’s cooling off. Unaffordability is too high. This is not a good change at all.

    “Although I guess you’re consistent since you don’t understand politics, economics or the world in general either.”

    Remember in 09ish when we were losing less jobs each consecutive month and I said that was good? I was lambasted. I turned out to be right. I even posted something like 10 signs the economy was turning around. Nobody believe me!

    In the summer of 2010 I said the housing market was turning. I was a year early. Of course I am here so I saw the bubble too..

    Meanwhile you failed an open book test on an article with the answer in the title. Be best!

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