Case-Shiller: Seattle home prices fell more than anywhere else between July and August.

Let’s have a look at the latest data from the Case-Shiller Home Price Index. According to July data that was released today, Seattle-area home prices were:

Down 1.6 percent July to August
Up 9.6 percent YOY.
Up 31.9 percent from the July 2007 peak

Last year at this time prices were down 0.3 percent month-over-month and year-over-year prices were up 13.2 percent.

After falling to dead last in month-over-month price changes in July, Seattle continued its streak at #20 in August. This follows a four-month streak at #1 earlier in the year.

Seattle is still near the top in year-over-year price growth though. Two metro areas had higher price growth from a year earlier in August: Las Vegas at 13.9 percent and San Francisco at 10.6 percent. However, if the current trend continues for a few more months, Seattle won’t be near the top for long…

Case-Shiller Year-Over-Year Home Price Change

Here’s a Tableau Public interactive graph of the year-over-year change for all twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities. Check and un-check the boxes on the right to modify which cities are showing:

Here’s how the month-over-month price changes looked for all twenty markets:

Case-Shiller HPI: Month-to-Month

Hit the jump for the rest of our monthly Case-Shiller charts, including the interactive chart of raw index data for all 20 metro areas.

Six metro areas hit new all-time highs in August (down from 11 in July): Los Angeles, Atlanta, Boston, Minneapolis, Charlotte, and Cleveland.

Here’s the interactive chart of the raw HPI for all twenty metro areas through August.

Here’s an update to the peak-decline graph, inspired by a graph created by reader CrystalBall. This chart takes the twelve metro areas whose peak index was greater than 175, and tracks how far they have fallen so far from their peak. The horizontal axis shows the total number of months since each individual city peaked.

Case-Shiller HPI: Decline From Peak

In the 133 months since the 2007 price peak in Seattle prices are up 31.9 percent.

Lastly, let’s see how Seattle’s current prices compare to the previous bubble inflation and subsequent burst. Note that this chart does not adjust for inflation.

Case-Shiller: Seattle Home Price Index

Here’s the Seattle Times’ story about this month’s numbers: Average Seattle-area home selling for below list price for first time in 4 years

That headline seems to have been inspired by something I tweeted yesterday morning (with data from the Redfin Data Center):

(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 2018-10-30)

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About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. Tim also hosts the weekly improv comedy sci-fi podcast Dispatches from the Multiverse.