Case-Shiller: Seattle is #1! …for month-over-month price declines

Let’s have a look at the latest data from the Case-Shiller Home Price Index. According to September data that was released today, Seattle-area home prices were:

Down 1.3 percent August to September
Up 8.4 percent YOY.
Up 30.2 percent from the July 2007 peak

Last year at this time prices were down 0.3 percent month-over-month and year-over-year prices were up 12.9 percent.

Seattle’s streak of dead last for month-over-month price changes increased to three months in September. Quite a flip from the four-month streak at #1 earlier in the year.

Seattle is still at #3 in year-over-year price growth, but falling fast. Two metro areas had higher price growth from a year earlier in September: Las Vegas at 13.5 percent and San Francisco at 9.9 percent.

Case-Shiller Year-Over-Year Home Price Change

Here’s a Tableau Public interactive graph of the year-over-year change for all twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities. Check and un-check the boxes on the right to modify which cities are showing:


Here’s how the month-over-month price changes looked for all twenty markets:

Case-Shiller HPI: Month-to-Month

Hit the jump for the rest of our monthly Case-Shiller charts, including the interactive chart of raw index data for all 20 metro areas.

Just three metro areas hit new all-time highs in September (down from 11 in July and 6 in August): Atlanta, Charlotte, and Cleveland. Those are definitely not the typically “hot” markets.

Here’s the interactive chart of the raw HPI for all twenty metro areas through September.


Here’s an update to the peak-decline graph, inspired by a graph created by reader CrystalBall. This chart takes the twelve metro areas whose peak index was greater than 175, and tracks how far they have fallen so far from their peak. The horizontal axis shows the total number of months since each individual city peaked.

Case-Shiller HPI: Decline From Peak

In the 134 months since the 2007 price peak in Seattle prices are up 30.2 percent.

Lastly, let’s see how Seattle’s current prices compare to the previous bubble inflation and subsequent burst. Note that this chart does not adjust for inflation.

Case-Shiller: Seattle Home Price Index

The latest few data points in this chart definitely look quite a bit different than recent years’ seasonal flattening. To be honest it looks a lot more like it did in late 2007…

Here’s the Seattle Times’ story about this month’s numbers: Metro Seattle home prices falling at fastest rate in U.S.

(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 2018-11-27)

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About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. Tim also hosts the weekly improv comedy sci-fi podcast Dispatches from the Multiverse.