Get access to the full spreadsheets used to make the charts in this and other posts, as well as a variety of additional insider benefits by becoming a member of Seattle Bubble.
November market stats were published by the NWMLS this morning. Home prices slipped to their lowest level since January, and inventory is declining seasonally but hit its highest November level since 2011. Both pending and closed sales continued to slip from last year as well. November’s year-over-year listing growth was an all-time record at a whopping 114 percent.
The NWMLS press release hasn’t come out yet, so let’s get right to the data.
NWMLS monthly reports include an undisclosed and varying number of
sales from previous months in their pending and closed sales statistics.
Here’s your King County SFH summary, with the arrows to show whether the year-over-year direction of each indicator is favorable or unfavorable news for buyers and sellers (green = favorable, red = unfavorable):
| November 2018 | Number | MOM | YOY | Buyers | Sellers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Active Listings | 4,020 | -17.5% | +113.9% |  |
 |
| Closed Sales | 1,811 | -11.7% | -18.6% | |
|
| SAAS (?) | 1.10 | -14.5% | +26.3% | |
|
| Pending Sales | 1,926 | -16.1% | -13.0% | |
|
| Months of Supply | 2.22 | -6.5% | +162.7% | |
|
| Median Price* | $643,913 | -4.0% | +2.1% | |
|
Here’s the graph of inventory with each year overlaid on the same chart.
Inventory fell 18 percent from October to November, and was up 114 percent from last year. We went from the all-time lowest November inventory a year ago to a seven-year high in 2018.
Here’s the chart of new listings:
New listings were up three percent from a year ago and continued the usual seasonal decline month-over-month.
Here’s your closed sales yearly comparison chart:
Closed sales fell 12 percent between October and November. Last year over the same period closed sales dropped nine percent. Year-over-year closed sales were down 19 percent.
Pending sales were down 16 percent from October to November, and were down 13 percent year-over-year.
Here’s the supply/demand YOY graph. “Demand” in this chart is represented by closed sales, which have had a consistent definition throughout the decade (unlike pending sales from NWMLS).
The massive surge in active inventory has forced me to adjust the y-axis on this chart. We’ve hit new all-time records each of the last four months.
Here’s the median home price YOY change graph:
Year-over-year home price changes edged down again from October to November, to its lowest level since August 2014.
And lastly, here is the chart comparing King County SFH prices each month for every year back to 1994 (not adjusted for inflation).
November 2018: $643,913
November 2017: $630,750
July 2007: $481,000 (previous cycle high)
The Seattle Times hasn’t published their story yet. I’ll update this post when they do.
Update: Here’s the story from the Seattle Times: Seattle-area home prices drop again, with 6-month decline among largest ever
And here’s the NWMLS press release: Home buyers have “window of opportunity” with shift to more balanced market