May Stats Preview: Not Dead Yet Edition!

Remember, you can always get access to the Seattle Bubble spreadsheets by supporting my ongoing work as a member of Seattle Bubble.

Hey look who it is. That Seattle Bubble guy. He’s not gone after all. Seriously though, everything is fine. Things just got a bit busy.

Let’s have a look at the May stats, shall we?

In summary: Although the market is definitely not as hot as it was a year ago, it’s no longer moving strongly in a direction favorable to buyers. Sales are basically flat and the growth in inventory is slowing. I had hoped the market would soften more, but it doesn’t look like that’s going to happen this year.

Here’s the snapshot of all the data as far back as my historical information goes, with the latest, high, and low values highlighted for each series:

King & Snohomish County Stats Preview

First up, let’s look at our inventory charts, updated with previous month’s inventory data from the NWMLS.

King County SFH Active Listings

The number of homes on the market in King County rose 15 percent from April to May, and year-over-year listings are up 41 percent from May 2018. That’s a good gain, but the smallest one since May 2018. Here’s what the year-over-year trend looks like for King County listings since January 2017:

Year-Over-Year King County SFH Active Listings

In Snohomish County inventory rose 30 percent month-over-month, and the year-over-year growth was up 39 percent. It’s a similar story in Snohomish, with the smallest gain since August.

Snohomish County SFH Active Listings

Next, let’s look at total home sales as measured by the number of “Warranty Deeds” filed with King County:

King County Warranty Deeds

Sales in King County rose 15 percent between April and May (a year ago they rose 12 percent over the same period), and were flat year-over-year.

Here’s a look at Snohomish County Deeds, but keep in mind that Snohomish County files Warranty Deeds (regular sales) and Trustee Deeds (bank foreclosure repossessions) together under the category of “Deeds (except QCDS),” so this chart is not as good a measure of plain vanilla sales as the Warranty Deed only data we have in King County.

Snohomish County Deeds

Deeds in Snohomish rose 8 percent month-over-month (in the same period last year they were up 15 percent) and were down 6 percent from a year earlier.

Hit the jump for the foreclosure charts.

Next, here’s Notices of Trustee Sale, which are an indication of the number of homes currently in the foreclosure process:

King County Notices of Trustee Sale

Snohomish County Notices of Trustee Sale

Foreclosure notices in King County were up 36 percent from a year ago and Snohomish County foreclosure notices were down four percent from last year. Since the numbers are so low, recent changes can appear large in percentage terms, but we’re talking about changes of just a few dozen month to month and compared to the prior year.

Here’s another measure of foreclosures for King County, looking at Trustee Deeds, which is the type of document filed with the county when the bank actually repossesses a house through the trustee auction process. Note that there are other ways for the bank to repossess a house that result in different documents being filed, such as when a borrower “turns in the keys” and files a “Deed in Lieu of Foreclosure.”

King County Trustee Deeds

Trustee Deeds were up 52 percent from a year ago.

Note that most of the charts above are based on broad county-wide data that is available through a simple search of King County and Snohomish County public records. If you have additional stats you’d like to see in the preview, drop a line in the comments and I’ll see what I can do.

Stay tuned later this month a for more detailed look at each of these metrics as the “official” data is released from various sources.

5.00 avg. rating (90% score) - 1 vote

About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. Tim also hosts the weekly improv comedy sci-fi podcast Dispatches from the Multiverse.


  1. 1

    I Like the New Inventory Chart Tim

    A MASSIVE YOY change rate down in listings isn’t chump change either. WOWZA.

    Why the ‘YOY 150%” increase in listings last Dec 2018 drop to about “YOY 25%” increase in inventory rate change COLLAPSE? Reason? Sellers giving up with inflated prices? Its good listings are are still growing, but good gosh this trend downward is gonna be negative inventory changes soon at a theater near you?

    Related news during the Dec 2018 through May 2019 drastic changes in rate downward…its the Max 8 IMO:–abc-news-topstories.html

    Like I warned months ago….FAA can’t read Japanese 737 part engineering drawings and now Boeing alleges the Japanese critical safety the FAA engineering can’t inspect [they’re in Japaneses folks] parts are junk….the NWO is junk too, bring parts manufacturing back to Auburn Fabrication again….LOL….if Boeing won’t do it, a Trump Tariff on Japanese 737 parts is due? We’re run by the village idiots folks….they also allege $50-100K “Mexican Luxury Cars” [BMW, Infiniti, Lincoln, etc,etc] are desirable with low labor and high consumer costs…LOL

    The NWO has a serious thought disorder, level III too? LOL

  2. 2

    RE: softwarengineer @ 1
    The May 2019 YOY Change in interest rate data is late

    I’m hoping its there tomorrow…I’ll present it ASAP.

  3. 3
    N says:

    The numbers suggest things aren’t trending down right now but it sure feels like a declining market out there. More and more realtors at open houses seem to indicate that as well. And it’s still the peak selling season. Do we trend down over the summer/fall/winter or stay flat? The number of nice homes not selling within the first 3 weeks is a little shocking given the time of year.

  4. 4
    Snp says:

    RE: N @ 3

    Went to an open house in Edmonds on a Friday evening, ready to be an aggressive buyer on a house that ended up being a total let down. What I have noticed has changed from a year ago is that all of the buyers at the open house were disappointed and left. It was clearly an inexperienced flip that got in over their head. Buyers pointed out flaws to each other. Honestly my favorite part was a woman that walked in to the living room, walked back out and sat in the car waiting for her husband to be done.

    Good properties on in our range still get bid up, nice properties seem to sell within reason, poor properties seem to be delusional. Seems like it is a “normal” market.

  5. 5

    RE: N @ 3
    Great Analysis Opinion

    It could be a bunch of economic factors the Bubbleheads focus on from Dec 2018 through May 2019 [like the “time-frame” of the MAX 8 fiasco]? All of the above? Average FICO credit score for 2019 raw data, where is it? In the Open Border Party fairy tale book?

    Even this realtor/banking FICO website for 2019 includes only up to 2015 data, check it out…..cooked books in my book. The NWO village idiots are brainwashing us? FICO scores could be plummeting in 2019, if the news were not fake?

  6. 6

    Your Pet Cats are Becoming a New Dining Option in the NWO?

    Keep it in a cage [with license] and use a leash when walking it? Kent already has this law…or the homeless will gobble it up?

    I can smell “cooked cats” in low income poverty areas, like Section 8 housing….it smells like hell too….cultures in Asia love cat dinners BTW….LOL

    Now call me Racist for bringing out Asian customs….sheeesh…

  7. 7
    SeaMillie says:

    If the Justice Department/FTC potential antitrust crackdown on AMZN/FB/GOOGL/AAPL has any teeth, this could have more of an effect locally than other macro factors such as the recent drop in the 10Y. Big tech is dropping like a rock currently without anything being formally announced, I expect smaller tech companies/valuations to suffer as well due to the potential buyers being barred from acquisitions if anything material emerges. Still early, and I have doubts this is really going to be pursued with great force due to the global tech competition with China.

  8. 8

    Do You Have a Google Devise Smart Home?

    You were locked out your house when Google systems collapsed….wonderful…

    Do you see why I wait on technology before I buy? 5G harmful to health? Chronic IPhone use causes depression. I’m waiting for Clear Choice denture inplant technology to be tested over at least 5-10 years before I buy, my capped teeth are still in good condition and waiting for perfect replacements and a like $10-15K investment isn’t chump change if its a joke later [falls out right away, cracks form quickly, etc,etc]….the worse thing retired folks can do is spend a fortune on teeth and buried a year later anyway, let alone buy NWO junk….LOL???

  9. 9

    American Manufacturing Engineering [Made in Chicago]

    Made a steel stapler [not cheap NWO sheet metal or plastic] like 50 years ago….I’m looking at it now, it still works….LOL

  10. 10

    RE: SeaMillie @ 7
    Yes SeaMillie

    I agree with your take….even the EU alleged at the Bilderberger NWO meeting last week that the current EU fight over Trump and Brexit Populist trends sees American high tech replacing EU leadership. They mentioned lack of experience and skills to lead the EU properly….IOWs they have no Kissinger anymore. Trump suggests to UK on Brexit….”walk out during EU negotiations”, its in your best interest.

    Were at each other’s throats now….it was inevitable in my book due to OVERPOPULATION resource shortages [oil makes food/plastics/truck/tractor transportation, etc, etc…IOWS and its limited in the NWO]…time to baton the hatches and hunker down for the long haul now? The invasion hoards of Communist poor will be pouring into Western Nations now, and the rate should increase, at a theater near you too….

  11. 11

    RE: Snp @ 4
    Yes Snp

    Even my HOA and private home inspection before sale missed a “GAME CHANGER” on my 1999 contract…the Riches Stove was installed without Wash State Inspection [no “obvious” metal placard on the back of my modular home at sale]….the HOA realtor knew about it too, but lied to make a sale; then reported me to the State and made my contract “null and void” [I bought his listing out from under him, he was my Glenbrook HOA board member at the time too]….the Riches Stove sub-contactor for installation faced a HUGE fine of about $3000 [inflation adjusted to 2019 dollars]. We’re run by organized crime folks. It cost me many hours of “unpaid” detective work and many swigs of Black Label [LOL]….but good ole “positive thinking” SWE can fix anything? LOL ..I should put up an attorney office placard on my office [and try to pass the BAR exam?]

  12. 12
    uwp says:

    SWE has 8 of the first 11 comments on this article. It looks like only 1 of them has any passing relevance to the main post.

    At least when Kary commented a lot, it wasn’t conspiracy theory gibberish.

  13. 13
    Nodebt says:

    Do you guys also skip SWE comment or it’s just me?

  14. 14
    seek help says:

    RE: uwp @ 12

    The fact that Tim lets him ransack this blog has basically killed any relevant discourse. It doesn’t help that he has a few dim-bulb cheerleaders…

  15. 15
    BJ says:

    RE: uwp @ 12

    Seriously. I just clicked with interest to read the twelve comments and was similarly annoyed.

  16. 16
    The Tim says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 11 – Please find a way to be more concise. It’s difficult for anyone to have a meaningful conversation when the comments are flooded with so many posts from a single person.

  17. 17
    IssaquahResident says:

    The last few months were extraordinary stock market growth which gave people optimism. It’s not the case anymore. The bubble will continue bursting this summer.

  18. 18
    ronp says:

    RE: Nodebt @ 13 – I just skip him, but a mute function would be nice, or something automated. Yeesh, I accidently read his cat comment.

  19. 19
    richard says:

    RE: Snp @ 4 – I just don’t understand you guys, why can’t you wait out for a better deal maybe be in a year. or just because you just can afford to buy so you just go ahead and buy.

  20. 20
    richard says:

    RE: IssaquahResident @ 17 – hope the stock will depress buyers. My biggest concern is the trade war will force more Chinese to buy real estate here. hopefully Chinese government will do a good job on capital control but I am not optimistic about that. I hope Trump can be patriotic enough to intimidate Chinese officials by disclosing the commie’s asset here .

  21. 21
    Any says:

    Interest rates are tanking though, a major difference from last year that will lure in some buyers on the fence. The 30-year is at its lowest point since June 2016 and there is no bottom in sight.

  22. 22
    David says:

    By IssaquahResident @ 17:

    The last few months were extraordinary stock market growth which gave people optimism. It’s not the case anymore. The bubble will continue bursting this summer.

    LOL. The stock market had a crash at the end of the year. The recovery would certainly not have been seen as enough to create a new wealth effect.

  23. 23
    Longtime Listener First Time Caller says:

    softwarengineer has made 8 of 22 posts, which is some sort of axiom or proof showing that 36 percent is the same 100 percent bullsh*t ALL THE TIME

  24. 24
    dariakus says:

    By Longtime Listener First Time Caller @ 23:

    softwarengineer has made 8 of 22 posts, which is some sort of axiom or proof showing that 36 percent is the same 100 percent bullsh*t ALL THE TIME

    Everyone needs a hobby.

  25. 25
    kenmorem says:

    looks like justme is striking from commenting on this conflicting (to him) update….

  26. 26
    Market Psychologist says:

    41% more inventory YoY and flat sales YoY. Market continues its aggressive downward trajectory. Just like Seattle was deluded by rapid price growth, it is now deluded by the notion that because the market isn’t completely tanking overnight that all is well. 41% more homes and no improvement in sales is a serious indicator for a market in serious decline.

  27. 27
    dman says:

    People underestimate a healthy stock market’s effect on housing (esp amazon). The majority of people I know who bought in the last 6 months did so after selling their amazon stocks when it came back up from the December crash.

    Also, lol at this swe guy rambling on about nonsense every time I look at the comments section here

  28. 28
    Armk says:

    I usually like looking at the month by month fluctuations in the year over year growth rate, not for real estate, but for other economic data I track for my job. In some cases, when the year over year percentages are huge, they will inevitably lead to deceleration (smaller YoY% increases) in the subsequent months, as the inventory data here is showing.

    You see in the third chart (SFH inventory) how the YoY peaks in Dec18 and has been headed one way down from there? Also note how the trough came in Dec17 and the YoY only shot up from there.

    Given the distortion from large YoY% changes in the prior year, it is unclear to me where we are right now. I will say, if the YoY% change in Jan20 is lower than the YoY% change in Dec19, then I would be more inclined to conclude we are now in a sellers strike.

    However, if the Jan20 YoY% change is about equal to the Dec19 YoY% change (and must be still positive), then I will hold on to my starting assumption that the market is trending weaker. Imagine if the inventory YoY growth rate stabilizes at +15% or +25% going forward? That would continue to tilt conditions in favor of buyers. Just look at 2017 in that same third chart, with stable YoY change rates of -15% to -25% for a whole year, and how hot of a market that ended up being! Imagine the reverse where inventory was increasing at a stable % rate.

  29. 29
    Greg says:

    I don’t understand how folks don’t grasp that prices are down not up and they are trending down not up.

    Not am saying it is an implosion but it is cheaper for me to buy now and I have more choice then I did last year..

    This is not complicated stuff…. What was 1.5 is now less, what was 675 is now less…

  30. 30
    Coconut says:

    Yep-prices are headed down…it is we are now getting close to the peak last year so YoY declines are a bigger deal…I have noticed that there are less houses in the new build variety on the market than a couple of months ago…my guess is that the higher end houses started to drop some in price which caused some sideline buy in but now we are running through that inventory there will be less sales to close the mix gap and will start to see sustained declines…a balanced market is probably circa 2016 prices

  31. 31
    Funkseoulbrotha says:

    By The Tim @ 16:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 11 – Please find a way to be more concise. It’s difficult for anyone to have a meaningful conversation when the comments are flooded with so many posts from a single person.

    Must be nice to retired SWE…

  32. 32
    Justme says:

    On the topic of exponential strawmen

    Several bubble-mongers are expressing their glee that that that inventory in 2019 (vs 2018) increased by a smaller factor (on same date, YOY) as it did in 2018 (vs 2017). Increasing by the SAME factor each same-length time period is the literal definition of exponential increase. So bubble-mongers are essentially demanding exponential increase of inventory or else they will declare there is “no bust”, right?

    Does that seem like a reasonable requirement? Hell, no. Bubble-mongers are just setting up an exponential strawman that no real-life process can live up to, and then knocking the strawman down.

    Would be impressive, if it was not so transparently unreasonable. Bah, humbug.

  33. 33
    Wile E. Millenial says:

    Interested in this McMansion ban… 2500 max building size OR 50% of lot area, whichever is larger. Suddenly a 1/4 acre lot with limiting terrain in a decent neighborhood doesn’t look so bad.

  34. 34
    OA says:

    RE: Justme @ 31


  35. 35
    David says:

    Good investors will hold onto their houses until prices stabilize and rise again. Don’t sell to these Downer Debbies on here, or out there. The great arc of history leans toward advancing prices.

    Seattle is only 20% above prices from 10 years ago (also known as not that much relative to time)

  36. 36
    Matt P says:

    Why buy just because we can afford it? Because I didn’t want to stay in the place where I was living and didn’t want to wait another year for what may happen in the future when I could buy a townhouse I like now and got a pretty good deal compared to what I would have paid the year before.

    My wife probably would have divorced me if I had made her more to another apartment before buying also, so maybe slightly overpaying was definitely worth it and maybe I didn’t overpay at all. No one knows the future. Plus I plan to stay at least 10 years. If prices crash and don’t recover in that time frame, then we’ve got bigger things to worry about.

  37. 37
    Any says:

    RE: OA @ 33

    He’s saying that YoY % increases are bound to drop after they’ve been going up for a year straight, which makes sense. While it would be quite a story if that graph kept increasing, the fact that it isn’t doesn’t signify prices aren’t still going to go down. The important thing is that the overall inventory keeps increasing. As long as that is the case, there will continue to be downward pressure on prices. When YoY inventory actually starts to go down, that will be the bull story. Not YoY % change going down.

  38. 38
    sbBarb says:

    “… Sales in King County rose 15 percent between April and May (a year ago they rose 12 percent over the same period), and were flat year-over-year” … “Deeds in Snohomish rose 8 percent month-over-month (in the same period last year they were up 15 percent) and were down 6 percent from a year earlier.”

    Here on California’s South Coast (Santa Barbara, Goleta, Montecito, Carpinteria), both MoM sales volume and the MoM median selling price of SFHs have flattened since late 2018. In contrast, sales volume and selling prices of condos continue to rise steadily. For charts and other details, jump to the 51-minute mark in the video embedded in my 06/03/2019 post:

    UCSB Economic Forecast Project — 2019 South County Economic Summit

    By the way, the median South Coast SFH/PUD selling price bottomed at less than $800,000 in 2011-12 and is now around $1,300,000 (YTD through April). That’s more than a 60% increase over a seven-year period.

    Santa Barbara Bubble

  39. 39
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: The Tim @ 16

    Thanks for addressing this issue.

    SWE’s off topic right-wing rants and explorations of senior navel lint are more than an annoyance. They dissuade those new to the site from taking the discourse seriously.

  40. 40
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: The Tim @ 16

    Btw Tim the new chart showing change in inventory growth is excellent. Really useful. Thanks for putting in the time.

  41. 41

    RE: softwarengineer @ 1
    I’ll Be Concise Tim

    All the folks that complained About My Analysis Offer No Contributions to Your Blog

    You can say the opposite for those that encourage my contributions. Ask ’em. It is what it is.

  42. 42
    Snp says:

    RE: Matt P @ 36 – totally agree. Could try to time the market forever, we look at houses we like, in the price range that is comfortable for us. We could wait forever for “the bottom” and it never happen. We just want a home, not an asset. That’s why we separately invest.

    Way I see it, houses we look at aren’t getting overbid $100k anymore so we are at least saving $100k if/when we do find what we like.

  43. 43

    RE: softwarengineer @ 2
    Its Available for the Bubbleheads

    But I’m cutting the SWE YOY Investment Report for May 2019 Out

    I’m being more concise.

    Request it from me and I’ll give it to you, otherwise just wing it.

    BTW, I miss Kary and Scottsman….they were A+ contributors to the Seattle Bubble. The Bubbleheads are losing all their skills and experience if we allow 1st Amendment freedom of speech to be stifled to all partisan view points. Period. This excuse the blogs are too long is a joke too…just scroll down over SWE if you hate me and shut up.

    I’m off to get my oil changed, I talk to many folks in the Kent area about my “so-called Conspiracy Theories” based on raw data [Seattle Bubble has little or no effect on elections, but talking to the people does]…its just the opposite, they appreciate my contributions and mostly TOTALLY agree with me. I blog nationally too and am recognized by many friends and some foes… I’m happy and am having a GREAT DAY! MAGA!

  44. 44

    RE: Deerhawke @ 39
    And Your Open Border Party Bent Agenda Doesn’t?

    LOL…I’m rolling on the ground in laughter now. I bet you want a muzzle on my free speech right6 too?

  45. 45
    Blake says:

    By Nodebt @ 13:

    Do you guys also skip SWE comment or it’s just me?

    Usually… but sometimes I am too curious to see what the f*ck he is carrying on about. Sort of like the crazy guy ranting on the sidewalk.
    NEW WORLD ORDER!!! blah blah blah…

  46. 46
    seek help says:

    swe. Reflect upon feedback directed toward you. Do not deflect.

    Also, free speech does not exist on a blog that you don’t own.

    You seem firmly rooted in your ideology, and no one here is trying to change that. In fact, this isn’t an idealogical blog, it’s about Seattle real estate.

  47. 47

    RE: Snp @ 42

    Depends on the what and where. Have been involved in multiple offers for the last 4 weeks in a row. The first one had 9 offers. Don’t know final price. The most recent one had 6 offers and my client bid a bit over $100,000 over asking and it sold for $130,000 over asking, non-refundable deposit and no contingencies and two of the 6 buyers were neck and neck to the end. None were under priced. One had a price reduction after on market for 3 weeks or so and the new price got bid up to almost the original asking price.

    We are in peak season now until July 15 or so.

  48. 48
    Longtime Listener First Time Caller says:

    Three new posts from software engineer brings us two invocations of “civil rights” and 2 mentions of nut job conspiracy theories.

    And what about your promise to be concise? Which was followed up with the epithet “your Open Border Party Bent Agenda” What the hell?

    Thats like a great name for a early 80s punk rock early cover band, but what on earth is that? All I see is a toxic mash of ideas marauding simultaneously as a joke, an epithet, and a philosophy? I mean stripping that one nugget to its core would you take an entire session with a therapist. And you pepper your every post with that nonsense at least once, and often several times! How does a person approach someone like that?

    As for analysis? Your every post feels like a sad combination of some guys basement, middle age loneliness, and the dark web. Frankly its more than clear you don’t know how to express yourself, but more seriously, I don’t think you even know what you think.

  49. 49
    dman says:


    SWE: There’s an NWO conspiracy by the asians to chop up our cats and eat them.

  50. 50
    David says:

    By dman @ 49:


    SWE: There’s an NWO conspiracy by the Asians to chop up our cats and eat them.

    They actually eat dogs predominantly in China – everywhere. They won’t admit it to you though. But the dog restaurants are easy to find if you know how to read the signs.

    They are fond of Golden Retrievers.

    Cats are eaten too but not as often from what I can tell.

    Golden Retriever is delicious. Lots of mystery meats in China too in restaurants that do not cater to foreigners. If you stay in a hotel, foreigners are relegated to only certain hotels that will NOT serve you Retriever. Which makes me want to dog pound the table in outrage.

  51. 51
    uwp says:

    By David @ 50:

    Which makes me want to dog pound the table in outrage.

    Must be ruff.

  52. 52
    Erik says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 43
    I’d like to see SWE’s YOY Investment Report for May 2019. I think people are being mean to you because of your political stance. I like your comments.

  53. 53
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Erik @ 52

    Erik, we have a solution. You share your email with SWE so he can send you his random ruminations, navel lint and conspiracy theories. Heck, share your telephone number with him so he can call you whenever he has a random idea he wants to share.

    You can become the audience he so desperately seeks. He cuts his post here to one post every now and again of actual real estate related commentary. The rest of us can avoid the time and aggravation of scrolling past his toxic stuff.

  54. 54
    Deerhawke says:

    Interesting story in the Seattle Times about Jeff Bezos buying 3 adjoining condos in a tech-heavy neighborhood near Madison Square Garden in New York City totaling 17,000 SF. (That is the size of a big box store like a Dick’s Sporting Goods.) Purchase price of nearly $80 million.

    “Bezos’s condo purchase, in a tech-heavy neighborhood, could be a sign that Amazon is committing to a larger presence in New York, even without an official headquarters, according to real estate agent, Donna Olshan.

    “Maybe he’s going to go more Manhattan-centric,” she said. “He has to. He isn’t going to sit there and let Google continue to buy property and swallow up all the top talent” in the area.”

  55. 55
    JustNoise says:

    RE: seek help @ 46RE: Deerhawke @ 53 – Two thumbs up.

  56. 56
    Erik says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 53
    I enjoy having you on here and I enjoy having SWE on here. You are both good guys and smart in very different ways. I see value in both commenters and I have the utmost respect for you both.

  57. 57
    Erik says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 54
    Man, I read the headline and didn’t even think of that. That’s why you have all the loot and I don’t. You should go buy some condos there before they start expanding. I would look into it if i was from NY and I could afford it like perhaps yourself.

  58. 58
    Armk says:

    RE: Erik @ 52

    Here you go Erik… the “investment report” is a collection of financial market data that can be easily pulled:

    This month = May 2019

    CDs (1yr) US bonds (30yr)
    This month 2.44% 2.57%
    Previous month 2.67% 2.93%
    End of last year 2.89% 3.01%
    This month last year 2.53% 3.03%

    US Stocks Non-US Stocks Global Stocks
    MoM -6.58% -5.86% -6.23%
    YTD 9.78% 5.56% 8.00%
    YoY 1.73% -8.85% -3.27%

  59. 59
    Jeff says:

    I created a script for muting specific users. Feel free to use it. I’ll probably cross post this in some general place.


    1. Install tampermonkey extension (I checked it in firefox and chrome.)
    2. Script:
    a. Go review the script. Update the list of mutterers. Each line should have the user name in quotes followed by a comma:
    mutterers = [

    b. location:
    3. Crack a beer for me and revel in your echo chamber.
    4. Send beer @zabto on venmo at your whimsy.

  60. 60
    Erik says:

    RE: Armk @ 58
    Thank you!

  61. 61

    SWE’s May 2019 Investors Report:

    May 0.21% 1.77% (6.36%) (6.99%) (4.69%)
    YTD 1.09% 4.79% 10.73% 11.87% 8.00%
    Last 12 mo 2.87% 6.51% 3.77% (3.56%) (5.32%)

    Longterm CDs, Longterm Bonds, American Stocks, Foreign Stocks, Foreign Stocks

    The long-term interest rate trend through next Dec 2019 is lower….projected YOY rate is about 2.6% from current YOY 2.9%. A “.3%” decrease if YTD trending is constant for the next 7 months. Good news for future mortgage rates trending and bad news for savers. Lower interest rates mean higher long-term bonds too, they rule investments now at about 7% YOY interest. American Stocks showed a YTD surge in 2019 to like 11%, but a a paltry YOY rate of 4%. Is it time to pull out of stocks now? Foreign stocks all suck lately, but as bad as they are the YTD surge means they were a lot worse 5 months ago. If you’re in stocks, hold on IMO, invest for the long haul, don’t sell unless you have to.

    Keep those cards and letters coming in, and Erik hit the nail on the head…..he may not be a rich elite Deerhawke type, but he sure has class ;-)

  62. 62
    Eastsider says:

    Germany 10 Year Government Bond yield hit a record low of -0.226% this morning. EU is probably in recession. Prepare for tough times ahead.

  63. 63

    RE: Armk @ 58
    Your Numbers Are all Wrong Compared to Mine and Where’s Your Analysis?

    My data came from the US Government’s Retirement Planning Website, where did you get your “different” numbers from? The MSM?

    You got more work to do on your “easily” pulled remark….LOL

  64. 64

    RE: Eastsider @ 62

    That EU Data You Pulled On Negative Bond Rates Is Very Odd?

    Does that mean interest rates are rising in Europe? Keep going on this one, the reason its different from American Bonds high rates needs transparency? Good start.

  65. 65
    Eastsider says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 64 – The current Germany 10-yr govt bond yield can be found here –

    Rates are sinking, fast. This is clear recession signal. The current rate is even lower than the Great Recession era.

  66. 66

    RE: Jeff @ 59RE: Erik @ 52

    Great Idea Jeff

    But an even better idea, just scroll down over the irrelevant blogs that oppose your view point or agenda. Then shut-up, in that order. Period.

    How long does it take to scroll down? A second or two?

    Become a real professional IOWs. Stop the partisan bickering and open up to both sides of the dialogue like Erik or face just seller organized brainwashing on the Bubble. Erik is way ahead of Deerhawke in this development and probably much younger too, copy Erik, not Deerhawke in communication skills. Wear your red MAGA hat proudly Erik and don’t let ’em mow ya down….LOL

    And you bloggers on a buying strike that terrify Deerhawke; its a free country, don’t let ’em mow ya down! You have a right to your agenda too ;-)

    And those that read my blogs and call me a F_CKING FASCIST…God Bless You too…at least ya got a heart beat and blood pressure….LOL….albeit you need to work on listening better with good raw data, we all do. Join Toastmasters and become a sane human again.

  67. 67
    richard says:

    RE: Armk @ 58 – so glad I locked in 3% 1 year CD last month.
    for risk-averse people like me , it is not bad.

  68. 68
    richard says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 47 – who knows if your number is real is your story is makeup or not? post something credible in the future please.

  69. 69

    RE: Funkseoulbrotha @ 31

    Yes It Is Funkseoutbrotha

    It lengthens your life and my friends tell me I’ve changed since retirement….they say I listen much better since retirement and like me to “be just myself”…not a phony cautious NWO robot…

    The downside is friends that deserted me after retirement because they gotta work and I don’t ….that’s why I tell ’em young [like Erik] get a job with a pension ASAP. A good pension is similar to an extra million $CASH$ in annuity payments…almost all of us can’t save that fast, especially with high real estate debts…Erik is not retired but I’d still call him my friend, but most of my friendships now are with retired folks. A lot of those that can’t retire soon or ever, can be very negative to me. To each their own, but I’m making real friends now, not phony ones. And dam_n-it, leave my Social Security and Medicare alone, all the bottom income 95% of retirees agree on that, we depend on SS.

    Now you OBP type thin skinned folks will launch WWIII against me for stating individual focused financial planning and real estate investing are linked…like I’m not concise or answering Bubble blog questions to me….LOL…BTW, SS dies, so will America’s entire real estate market…

  70. 70

    RE: richard @ 68
    Ignore Them Ardelle

    The negative bubble comments are off the Richtor scale now…I trust your data sources and your details, you are a valuable Bubble contributor too, glad to see ya back! ;-)

  71. 71

    RE: richard @ 67
    Locked in 3% for 30 Years?

    Not my kind of investment, locked box with relatively low interest. Do the numbers, the difference between a 0% and 1% locked box is almost identical annuity $CASH$ per month….I’ll repeat, for about the same annuity monthly $CASH$. 3% is better, but I suggest 0-1% in money markets…Erik knows what I’m talking about, he’s a savvy investor….the foreclosed $CASH$ half price deals need FAST electronic transactions ASAP, that locked box CD isn’t good in that case. If you find one, keep quiet and just grab it up.

    Remember, there’s always a SWE vulture or an Erik vulture willing to buy it for like half price with quick short sale $CASH$ before foreclosure. We’re waiting around like proverbial vultures…LOL.

  72. 72

    RE: Eastsider @ 65

    So the low bond interest you mentioned was just an anomaly in EU then with lower interest rates…the EU Stock Market collapse could mean money in general is just drying up? Period?

    Keep researching this, I focus more on American Stocks and foreign collapse reasons are just tariff related?

    One thing’s for certain, EU is a mess.

  73. 73
    Funkseoulbrotha says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 69

    You are definitely entertaining and informative. Pensions don’t seem to exist anymore unless you want to work for the city (puke). Guess I will be slaving away until the Rapture.

  74. 74
    richard says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 71 – look carefully, it is 1 year CD. I am not a idiot to lock in 3% CD for thirty years. I probably will do for 3% for 30 year mortgage though.

  75. 75
    richard says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 70 – I just asked a fair question. If she want to get a buyer client from this forum she need to earn trust. Throwing out some number that nobody can verify does not help her business. If I am a realtor and try to get client here I will do totally differently.

  76. 76
    Armk says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 47

    Without knowing what special features each property had to induce those multiple offers, it’s tough to extract much from these anecdotes.

    If you could estimate the proportion of offers you were involved in that were multiple offer situations in May 2019, Apr 2019, and May 2018, that would actually be extremely helpful as a data point.

  77. 77
    TheBernank says:

    How long do SFH stay in pending status?

    Does anyone have this data by end result type? (I.e number of days pending before successful sale of home versus relisted, etc.)

  78. 78
    sfrz says:

    Markets to keep an eye on….
    A “Late Stage’s” Effect on the Housing Market
    Of the 23 metros tracked on the index, data indicates that 19 are in rent territory. This means, that on average, an individual family in these cities would be better off renting and reinvesting in a portfolio of stocks and bonds as opposed to building wealth through equity accumulation from homeownership.

    “The opportunity to generate greater wealth by renting and reinvesting puts downward pressure on the demand for homeownership and prices should follow sooner rather than later,” said Eli Beracha, Ph.D., real estate economist, and co-creator of the index.

    The index indicated that markets experiencing dramatic to slight downward pressure on the demand for homeownership are Dallas (.978), Denver (.867), Houston (.773), Seattle (.424), Pittsburgh (.414), Kansas City (.392), Miami (.349), Portland (.327), San Francisco (.311), Atlanta (.276), Los Angeles (.224), San Diego (.159), Philadelphia (.147), Minneapolis (.107), Honolulu (.076), St. Louis (.076), Boston (.041), Milwaukee (.030), and Cincinnati (.025).

    “For markets near zero, I have very little concern about future home prices,” Johnson said. “Clearly, however, Dallas, Denver, and Houston are the canaries in the coal mine. As they go, so should the markets like Seattle, Pittsburgh, Kansas City, Miami, Portland, and San Francisco.”

  79. 79
    Matt P says:

    By TheBernank @ 77:

    How long do SFH stay in pending status?

    Does anyone have this data by end result type? (I.e number of days pending before successful sale of home versus relisted, etc.)

    Depends on the type of loan if one. Cash closes fastest then conventional then FHA then VA. Spread is usually like 20 to 45 days but inspections may change that if they find repairs are needed. Also depends on the lender, agent etc.

    My VA loan closed in exactly 30 (quicker than average) days using Trelora (discount realtors, charge a flat $4k for buyers in Seattle) and Sammamish Mortgage who are experienced with VA and also have low closing costs and rates. I’d highly recommend both. I had also done VA loan for a previous purchase so I knew the drill and stayed on top of things like making sure the sellers cut back all foliage away from the house before the VA appraiser came.

  80. 80
    Jeff says:

    RE: uwp @ 12
    RE: Nodebt @ 13
    RE: seek help @ 14
    RE: BJ @ 15
    RE: ronp @ 18
    RE: Deerhawke @ 39

    Cross-posted with screen shot of results.

    aaand done with off-topic (deer?)hawking, back to lurking..

  81. 81
    dman says:

    By Erik @ 52:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 43
    I’d like to see SWE’s YOY Investment Report for May 2019. I think people are being mean to you because of your political stance. I like your comments.

    Or as others have pointed out, he floods the entire comment section – mostly with nonsense unrelated to the blog.

    This was pointed out earlier, and Tim tried to correct the behavior.

  82. 82
    Erik says:

    RE: dman @ 81
    I see, SWE got a corrective action notice from his boss, The Tim.

    SWE thinks differently than you and that’s okay.

  83. 83
    Joe says:

    RE: sfrz @ 78

    No kidding. I’m renting a house in Seattle that would cost $2000 more per month to own. That $million I don’t put in the house gets me a conservative $60,000 per year in the stock market, when home prices are falling. I save over $80,000 per year by renting.

  84. 84
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Jeff @ 59
    RE: Jeff @ 80

    Ah, the sweet, sweet sound of silence.

    Thanks for sharing!

  85. 85
    Erik says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 84 – I
    Great! No more bickering. Now let’s talk real estate because I need a boat.

  86. 86
    Sam says:

    RE: Joe @ 83RE: Joe @ 83 – Provided you are buying ca$h completely. Normally you won’t put down more than 20% of 1mm. Putting the same 200K in market, would earn you $12K at the 6% rate you quoted, so that’s 1000 per month. So you are basically saving 3000 per month (2K below mortgage + 1K of interest) compared to buying, or saving 36K from renting + investing the down payment.

    Sounds correct so far? If so, on that 1mm property valuation you would’ve also paid about 10K of taxes, of which you would have deduced mortgage interest of say, $3000 assuming 30% tax bracket.
    So that’s about 36K + 7K (that would have gone in property taxes) = 43K of savings by renting as opposed to over 80K you quoted.
    That said, how does that 43K compared to your annual rent?

  87. 87
    Erik says:

    RE: Sam @ 86
    Imagine this Sam. Imagine you owned 10 houses in Seattle and bought them 2012. Let’s do a quick calc to see how much you could possibly make.

    Let’s pretend the average appreciation is 10%, since that was about the average appreciation from 2012 until 2017. I’m not sure 10% is right, but let’s guess that for arguments sake. You paid an average price of around $450k in 2012. Let’s see what you could make.

    (#houses)(Present value)(1+(interest rate))^#years) =Future value

    (10)$450k(1.1^5) = $4500k(1.61) = $7245k = $7.2M approximately

    Your appreciation is $7.2M – $4.5M = $2.7M, now say it cost you 25% to buy, hold, fix. Basically handling costs. You still get $1.8M for doing nothing fancy, just buying, renting out, and selling houses.

    Just for fun, you could buy 2 more houses outright and still have a good chunk of money in the bank.

  88. 88
    Sam says:

    RE: Erik @ 87 – One wishes one had as much foresight as one rues in hindsight …not to mention balls and sizeable cash to go with them ;-p

  89. 89
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Erik @ 85


    Three questions and a suggestion.

    1) What is the definition of a boat?
    A hole in the water that you pour money into.

    2) What are the two happiest days in a boat owner’s life?
    The second happiest is the day he buys his boat.
    The happiest is the day he sells his boat.

    3) Why is it that every boat owner knows the answers to these questions?

    Suggestion — You don’t need a boat. You need a friend who has a boat.

  90. 90
    northender says:

    Tim has a new article on the redfin blog
    It suggests that mortgage rates may drop this summer and if so, prices would probably climb faster than they have been. Interesting.

    I believe our president will do whatever he can to get reelected and pushing a recession off til after the election would probably do the trick. Lower interest rates should help with that.

  91. 91
    dman says:

    By northender @ 90:

    I believe our president will do whatever he can to get reelected and pushing a recession off til after the election would probably do the trick. Lower interest rates should help with that.

    This is absolutely the case. Trump has been harassing the fed to lower rates for the past two years. He and Powell had a meeting right before Powell became extra doveish after December.

    Trump said himself during his campaign that the current economic situation was a giant bubble and as soon as the fed raised rates it was coming to an end. We saw that start to happen in 2018.

  92. 92
    David says:

    By Deerhawke @ 89:

    RE: Erik @ 85


    Three questions and a suggestion.

    1) What is the definition of a boat?
    A hole in the water that you pour money into.

    2) What are the two happiest days in a boat owner’s life?
    The second happiest is the day he buys his boat.
    The happiest is the day he sells his boat.

    3) Why is it that every boat owner knows the answers to these questions?

    Suggestion — You don’t need a boat. You need a friend who has a boat.

    Most boat owners I know sell their boat and buy a bigger boat.

  93. 93
    Erik says:

    RE: Sam @ 88
    I hear yah. I have only had balls to buy in the past because I’ve had nothing to lose. Here’s what I had to lose… Nissan Frontier with 400k miles, clothes from Amazon, then the food in my fridge. That was what I stood to lose by borrowing money and defaulting on my loans. So I just borrowed to buy condos.

    If you were on this site during the last meltdown, Tim made it pretty clear when to buy. Tim bought 2010 because he adopted a child and needed a house. He said we are near the bottom, but prices will likely get lower, so I bought November 2011. CS bottom was February 2012. If I had the cash I would have kept buying. I hope we get another meltdown now that I have some savings, but we’ll have to see.

  94. 94
    Erik says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 89
    I was using “buy a boat” as a metaphor for having excess funds to throw money away. So my definition of a boat is #1, a hole in the water that I pour money into. I agree, a boat’s cost divided by the happiness it brings is very high and not a good idea for me yet.

    The last thing I did for fun was go to Bellevue botanical gardens. I went because it is free. Prior to that it was Snoqualmie falls, again, free except for the gas it cost me to get there.

  95. 95

    30 Year Treasuries Sink to 2.588% Today [3+% a few weeks ago]

    Good news for mortgage trends if you want lower rates. Refinancing existing loans most of the activity, but ” home mortgage purchase interest rates” trending going up too…sounds like possible 7% long-term bonds to me too.

  96. 96

    RE: northender @ 90
    I Agree With Tim, the Raw Trending Proves it Too

    Interest rates going down is good for mortgage applications too:

    This is national data, the Seattle only data was not available? I can’t find it, can you?

  97. 97

    RE: Erik @ 94
    Yes Erik

    Its not just boats folks are abandoning due to maintenance and marine storage fees, its small planes too…its cheaper to rent occasionally instead.

    Folks are trying to get rid of their “unused” time shares too.

  98. 98
    Jeff says:

    RE: Erik @ 87
    Hindsight breaks down as an investment strategy when comparing to current ‘best’ options. Instead of buying real estate in 2012, imagine if with that 20% * $4.5M, you had bought amazon stock. You’d have $9M for even less effort. But, as you mentioned, it’s much easier to get creative leverage in real estate vs the stock market if you don’t have capital to invest.

    RE: Erik @ 94 – My hole in the water was great for my emotional health. :) I tried to wait for a recession to acquire it, but waiting proved too costly after I lost my ‘friend with a boat’ to marriage, then pierce county, then parenthood. If your metaphor turns into reality, find a responsible partner with similar ideals about maintenance and usage, write up a strong agreement. Since happiness stays about the same, the astronomical cost to happiness ratio is cut in half.

  99. 99
    David B. says:

    By seek help @ 46:

    swe. Reflect upon feedback directed toward you. Do not deflect.

    Like most cranks, SWE is 100% absolutely certain (a) that he is not a crank, (b) the vast majority of people are ill-informed and (c) will be overjoyed to receive the great gift of his opinions.

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