Let’s play a bit of catch-up today with some stats that I’ve allowed to fall behind. First up, the latest Case-Shiller data from a couple weeks ago. According to April data that was released late June, Seattle-area home prices were:
Up 1.1 percent March to April
Up less than 0.1 percent YOY.
Up 30.9 percent from the July 2007 peak
Last year at this time prices were up 2.7 percent month-over-month and year-over-year prices were up 13.1 percent.
Seattle has fallen from #1 in year-over-year price growth back in May 2018 all the way down to dead last #20 as of April.
Here’s a Tableau Public interactive graph of the year-over-year change for all twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities. Check and un-check the boxes on the right to modify which cities are showing:
Here’s how the month-over-month price changes looked for all twenty markets:
Hit the jump for the rest of our monthly Case-Shiller charts, including the interactive chart of raw index data for all 20 metro areas.
There were eight metro areas that hit new all-time highs in April: Los Angeles, Denver, Atlanta, Boston, Minneapolis, Charlotte, Portland, and Dallas.
Here’s the interactive chart of the raw HPI for all twenty metro areas through April.
Here’s an update to the peak-decline graph, inspired by a graph created by reader CrystalBall. This chart takes the twelve metro areas whose peak index was greater than 175, and tracks how far they have fallen so far from their peak. The horizontal axis shows the total number of months since each individual city peaked.
In the 141 months since the 2007 price peak in Seattle prices are up 30.9 percent.
Lastly, let’s see how Seattle’s current prices compare to the previous bubble inflation and subsequent burst. Note that this chart does not adjust for inflation.
It was quite a decline over the winter, but prices bounced back sharply during the spring. Will they continue to rise, or flat-line and drop further this winter? That’s the million-dollar question, isn’t it?
Here’s the Seattle Times’ story about this month’s numbers: Seattle is ‘a notable exception’ for stalled home prices
(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 2019-06-25)