Case-Shiller Tiers: High Tier Price Drops Accelerate

Let’s check out the three price tiers for the Seattle area, as measured by Case-Shiller. Remember, Case-Shiller’s “Seattle” data is based on single-family home repeat sales in King, Pierce, and Snohomish counties.

Note that the tiers are determined by sale volume. In other words, 1/3 of all sales fall into each tier. For more details on the tier methodologies, hit the full methodology pdf. Here are the current tier breakpoints:

  • Low Tier: < $399,336 (up 2.0%)
  • Mid Tier: $399,336 – $624,393
  • Hi Tier: > $624,393 (up 1.6%)

First up is the straight graph of the index from January 2000 through April 2019.

Case-Shiller Tiered Index - Seattle

Here’s a zoom-in, showing just the last year:

Case-Shiller Tiered Index - Seattle

All three tiers rose month-over-month in April. The largest increase was in the low tier.

Between March and April, the low tier increased 1.6 percent, the middle tier rose 1.0 percent, and the high tier climbed 1.2 percent.

Here’s a chart of the year-over-year change in the index from January 2003 through April 2019.

Case-Shiller HPI - YOY Change in Seattle Tiers

Year-over-year price growth is falling in all three tiers, with the high tier having flipped to year-over-year losses as of February. Here’s where the tiers sit YOY as of April – Low: +4.6 percent, Med: +<0.1 percent, Hi: -1.8 percent.

Lastly, here’s a change-from-peak graph like the one in the national post with all of the Case-Shiller markets, but looking only at the Seattle tiers.

Case-Shiller: Decline from Peak - Seattle Tiers

Current standing is 27.7 percent above the 2007 peak for the low tier, 28.3 percent above for the middle tier, and 31.5 percent above for the high tier.

(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 2019-06-25)

0.00 avg. rating (0% score) - 0 votes

About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. Tim also hosts the weekly improv comedy sci-fi podcast Dispatches from the Multiverse.

One comment:

  1. 1
    ohd1122 says:

    I have a hypothesis that there is a price “floor” within 1.5-2 hours of Seattle of around $250-300K for a non-distressed single family house** (not condo). You can go as far as Spanaway/Lakewood and up to Marysville even. This is not a hard and fast rule, and comes with a couple stipulations (>=1000sqft, “liveable” which is extremely subjective, etc.). It will be interesting to track the lower tier.

Leave a Reply

Use your email address to sign up with Gravatar for a custom avatar.
Your email address will not be published.

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <s> <strike> <strong>

Please read the rules before posting a comment.