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I promised an updated look at June data for the outlying counties, so let’s have a look at that. Here’s the latest update to our “Around the Sound” statistics for King, Snohomish, Pierce, Kitsap, Thurston, Island, Skagit, and Whatcom counties.
First up, a summary table:
| June 2019 | King | Snohomish | Pierce | Kitsap | Thurston | Island | Skagit | Whatcom |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Price | $695,000 | $515,000 | $376,500 | $391,657 | $344,000 | $402,500 | $380,000 | $417,750 |
| Price YOY | (2.8%) | 0.7% | 7.3% | 10.6% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 11.8% | 7.1% |
| New Listings | 3,487 | 1,480 | 1,751 | 491 | 618 | 207 | 273 | 397 |
| New Listings YOY | (10.7%) | (12.2%) | (10.4%) | (17.8%) | (2.2%) | (12.7%) | 7.1% | (6.6%) |
| Active Inventory | 4,625 | 1,841 | 1,945 | 611 | 569 | 350 | 449 | 654 |
| Inventory YOY | 24.4% | 14.4% | (7.9%) | 3.7% | (14.4%) | 2.6% | 6.1% | 7.2% |
| Closed Sales | 2,718 | 1,215 | 1,521 | 432 | 553 | 186 | 213 | 326 |
| Sales YOY | (1.5%) | (1.7%) | (8.6%) | (5.5%) | (0.5%) | (11.0%) | 0.9% | (4.4%) |
| Months of Supply | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.0 |
King County is the only place where prices are declining, and it also has the largest increase in active listings compared to a year ago. On the flip side, pending sales were up the most in King County, and it had one of the smallest declines in closed sales (sales rose in Skagit though). In most of the other Puget Sound counties, sales are declining, and listings are either falling or not increasing by much, and prices are rising.
Here’s a look at new listings across the region:
New listings fell everywhere but Skagit County in June. Bad news for buyers hoping to find more selection as we head into the summer.
Next up: Active inventory.
Inventory fell in Thurston and Pierce counties, but increased everywhere else. King and Snohomish saw the biggest gains, but both of those were far smaller than the gains we saw late last year and earlier this year.
Here’s the chart of median prices compared to a year ago.
The biggest increase in home prices in June was Skagit, where prices rose 12 percent. Kitsap was close behind with an 11 percent increase. Every other county was in the single digits.
Closed sales were down in every county but Skagit, where they managed an increase of less than one percent.
This graph is the most telling—every county is still a very strong sellers’ market. Most counties are slightly better for buyers than they were a year ago, but we’ve still got a long ways to go before we get even close to what most people would call a “balanced” market (4-6 months of supply).
If there is certain data you would like to see or ways you would like to see the data presented differently, drop a comment below and let me know.
RE: TheBenBernank @ 967 – america will be like germany, most prople will rent if they live in big city. it doesnt matter he is single or has a family. rich people owns the real estate bubble. they own, enjoy their homes and trade home to each other. you happy now?
Here are my observations based on the charts on Altos Research (see link in the home page).
We have a bifurcated market in Seattle. The lower end homes are doing well. Not so in the upper segment. E.g. Median list prices 3yrs ago vs today – bottom quartile homes $366,328 vs $495.690 (up 35%), top quartile homes $1,716,691 vs $1,715,501 (unchanged). However, the top quartile median list price collapsed 29% in 18 months from the peak of $2,408,942 on 3/16/2018.
So yes, we are in both sellers and buyers markets depending on market segments. I would add that the rate cut earlier this year by the Fed added 10% to the median list price of lower end homes and temporarily stopped the collapse in the upper segment. Note that the 30yr mortgage rate dropped from the peak of 5.05% 10 months ago to 3.55% today. IMHO this is not a healthy market and it is foolish to be a bull after an extraordinary run in the past decade.
RE: Justme @ 976 –
Another Educated Idiot With No Skills and Experience?
You don’t become a Manufacturing Engineer with a college degree either…MEs are not poptarts from college, it takes like a decade to train the technical in this skill…that’s why many MEs had no degree, its mainly on the job experience. It made no difference.
RE: softwarengineer @ 992 –
Here’s an edit for you: “Educated Idiot with sufficient Skills and Experience to avoid ending up in the trailer park.”
Btw, you don’t become a custodial engineer with a college degree either….it’s not because they won’t take college graduates.
Your welcome.
RE: whatsmyname @ 993 –
I don’t understand your comment. I totally get what SWE is saying.
Make up some new lies
to cover up the old lies
yeah, that’s the ticket
– a bubble propaganda haiku
By Joe @ 987:
I suspect you know this but for the benefit of those who may not, much of the rush to bonds is not in anticipation of locking in extremely low or negative real returns, but in the hopes of capturing capital appreciation from further rate declines. It certainly has worked the last few months!
RE: softwarengineer @ 992 – RE: Erik @ 994 –
Because I never imagine Justme to have any education, I took the “Educated Idiot” comment as support for Justme’s war on literacy. Apologies to SWE.
Enjoy Your Labor Day Holiday Yuban and the News Brief from Seattle Times:
I trimmed the longer brief down to just address trending and Seattle Area Livability Issues:
“…The Seattle Times
MORNING BRIEF
Monday, September 2, 2019
man in taxicab
As Uber and Lyft lose billions, Seattle’s taxis are hanging on
Tegegne Mersha started driving cabs in Seattle nearly a decade ago, taking home $200 or more per day. Then Uber and Lyft arrived. Today the father of three rarely tops $100 a day — but he’s hoping better days are ahead. Seattle’s taxi companies and drivers are holding on as city leaders talk about changing the rules. (Photo: Erika Schultz / The Seattle Times)
NEED TO KNOW
Hurricane Dorian is wreaking “huge damage” on the Bahamas as one of the strongest Atlantic storms ever recorded. Reports of the destruction are emerging from what’s expected to be a daylong assault before the Category 5 storm curves along the southeastern U.S. seaboard. Evacuations have been ordered in vast coastal areas of Florida, Georgia and South Carolina, with millions of people waiting and worrying. The hurricane has already smashed all sorts of records.
On this Labor Day:
Why aren’t more women working? Partly because they’re caring for their parents. The growing strain is reshaping the labor force and the lives of millions of people.
Columnist Jon Talton traces unions’ heyday in Seattle, what went wrong and what may lie ahead.
Here’s what’s open, closed and running differently today.
Will former U.S. Rep. Dave Reichert run for governor? He’s thinking about trying to break the state GOP’s gubernatorial losing streak, the longest one in the nation. State Republicans are struggling to field candidates in 2020 marquee races.
Enjoy Morning Brief? Then you’ll love full digital access. Help us continue to bring you the news you care about, now. Subscribe to The Seattle Times for just $1 to start.
SUBSCRIBE TODAY
A TOWN DIVIDED
portrait of woman
A small town is struggling with a big rift over homelessness. On one side: a largely faith-driven contingent trying to build trust with homeless people and affirm their humanity. On the other: a Facebook-based group led by Rhiannon Skog Geffre, above, that takes a hard-line approach and draws accusations of vigilante behavior. Residents, police and city leaders in Bonney Lake are caught in the middle. (Photo: Ellen M. Banner / The Seattle Times)
WHAT WE’RE TALKING ABOUT
“Kids were screaming but nobody could get off the ground.” Bumbershoot attendees are describing the chaos as a barricade collapsed into a crush of people during a performance at the weekend festival. Twenty-five people were evaluated for injuries and four were taken to a hospital….”
“…Fox News “isn’t working for us anymore,” President Donald Trump complains. Oh yes they are. Look no farther than a tone-deaf event planned this fall in King County, columnist Danny Westneat writes.
Wow! Quarterback Jacob Eason’s record Husky debut proved that anything is possible this season, columnist Larry Stone writes. Here are three other things we learned from UW’s win over Eastern Washington. WSU quarterback Anthony Gordon had a stellar first game, too, and the Cougars made a few things clear during a pounding of New Mexico State.
In Washington, school districts spend millions of dollars transporting the rising number of homeless students to the last school they attended before losing their housing. Why not send the children to schools nearby instead? The experience of one Nevada district points to what a difference a bus ride can make.
Provided by Plymouth Housing
Homelessness complicates basic health needs, from managing chronic conditions like diabetes to access to a bathroom, clean drinking water, a bath or just a decent night’s sleep. Supportive housing helps fill in the gaps….”
Ah, September: realm of falling leaves, pumpkin spice lattes (if you’re into that sort of thing) and, best of all, great fall reads. Here are six paperbacks perfect for autumn, plus some recent favorites and coming releases to get excited about. And today is your last chance to vote on what Moira’s Seattle Times Book Club will read next….”
“…Washington bans salary history questions in job interviews, as part of new pay equity laws – but some employers are still asking them anyway. Here’s how to handle that if it comes up, with a script you can memorize of exactly what to say.
TODAY’S WEATHER
Partly cloudy. High 77. Low 58. Sunrise 6:29. Sunset 7:47.
TODAY IN HISTORY
In 1869, David Denny kills what is likely the last elk in Seattle, near Green Lake. The elk weighs 630 pounds. Denny had arrived in the area on the mouth of the Duwamish River in 1851, camping near an Indian village and meeting Chief Seattle. He marries Louisa Boren in 1853 and is issued King County’s first marriage license. The couple live on the future site of Seattle Center, and David Denny promotes the development of Lake Union and the University District. He dies in 1903….”
SWE Take on STs:
The Uber car share thing isn’t working versus high priced $3/mi cabs….is Uber worse in cost than Cabs? Cab drivers only making a $100/day…$12/hr approx….then they take out all the deductions….that leaves them with plenty of money to get their groceries and cook up something on the wild fire camp site and homeless tent they live in? Make sure to tip if you use a cab.
Facebook “Bonney Lake” Devils scream “get the Hades out of my city homelessness”….churches try to interface them into communities….we’re at each other’s throats over homelessness and its getting worse every month. Its making the “could care less” Seattle Uber Rich look horrifying in my book.
Bring the Seattle Homeless Kids to our local schools, filthy and smelling like sweat and feces? There are school hygiene codes that prevent this and yes, they need showers, lice removed and disease shots to attend our public schools. Clean clothes too. To even suggest this without hygiene rules STs is horrifying too. Supportive housing from where? The Tooth Fairy? How about use the illegal alien spent Seattle instead? Ya see why I don’t support more money poured into our decrepit public schools that makes ’em worse anyway in my book? Unchecked homelessness is completely over-looked in the school budget. Maybe we need school fund purchased legal citizen “tiny homes” with showers and beds instead of wasting it on foreign refugees we can’t afford until legal citizen homelessness is addressed properly?
Read a book today it cures and prevents Alzheimers [its body lifting for the brain] the new research documents…last I heard Seattle’s IQ average today is 40 points lower than the 70s [40 points is massive too, its the total intelligence of a 4 YO toddler]…..I can believe it, recently reading Michael Crichton’s Andromeda Strain [1979] and Sphere [1987] this weekend…the robotics, technological research application know how, math analysis, etc, etc….make today’s laptop/iPhone users look like village idiot scientists in comparison….we actually had to use our brain then and not brainless S/W [like spell check, etc]…LOL
The last Orcas left in Puget Sound means extinction of a species, that’s far worse than the Elk example….GROWTH and sewage drainage is killing the whale species off near Seattle. We need more unlimited OVERPOPULATION immigration sewage drainage to finish off the Seattle area salmon too?
RE: LessonIsNeverTry @ 996 –
If, as you suggest, the recent interest rate drop is simply attributable to short term speculation, mortgage rates could easily go back to 5% as the speculation reverses.
What would that do to home prices?
I’ll tell you. The negative trends that started in 2018 would accelerate. It’s just not a good time to risk your hard-earned money on an overpriced house.
Seattle was one of the first areas to be hit in the last housing downturn. Everybody remember WaMu? The international home buyers in Seattle tend to bite off way more than they can chew.
I had to laugh the other day, when Larry Summers, one of the leading proponents of easy money, came out saying quantitative easing doesn’t work. Then Lagarde gets upset and comes out saying it does work, citing some obviously weak arguments in support of it.
The rats are turning on each other. They know things are ready to fall apart as a result of their feckless bubble blowing.
The easy money, low interest rate fiasco is coming to an end. Let’s see how quickly things fall apart.
Robert Shiller of Case-Shiller index fame is singling out Seattle as an example of what happens when speculative mindset takes hold in a specific area. From the article:
“Phoenix is now the top city in the country for increases in annual home prices, replacing Las Vegas. That’s according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Inde. Co-creator Robert J. Shiller talked about the slow rate of home price appreciation.”
“SHILLER: Well, we have been in boom years in the housing market, increasingly since 2012. The big part of it is speculative. It’s people hearing about prices going up and bidding prices up so that they’re kind of too high and then the enthusiasm starts to wane and then they come down. It’s not necessarily a disaster but they come down somewhat.”
“SHILLER: I’ll bring up Seattle. Seattle was the hottest city of our 20 cities and a couple of years ago it was going up in double digits much more than Phoenix is recently. But now it’s dropping. You know, we’ve seen the same thing in other cities. It tends to be glamour areas that are a little more vulnerable to bubble thinking. You can get carried away and think that the world has just discovered that Phoenix is a wonderful city. Well, it is a wonderful city. What I am saying is that wonderful city’s prices can go down, too. Or, they can get too high.”
“SHILLER: One thing that I would add that I haven’t said is that housing over the long run has not made as good of an investment as the stock market. I did data from 1890 to 1990. And the housing market over the whole United States was increasing something like less than 1% in real inflation corrected terms and the stock market did spectacularly better than that. So, why is that? Well, housing is something like automobiles. It wears out. Often they get torn down eventually. They’re out of style. They have defects. They don’t last forever. So, why would one think that housing is such a good investment compared to companies that are trying to advance their investors’ interests?”
Reference:
http://kjzz.org/content/1141461/robert-shiller-nobel-laureate-economist-and-co-creator-case-shiller-index-speaks
RE: Justme @ 1001 – I listened to that interview. Great show; it’s a shame that they transcribed so little of it. Did you listen too? I ask because I don’t quite remember how many times he said is was perfectly OK to be buying a house now, so long as you were matching your needs. I think it was 4 times, but maybe only 3. What do you remember?
RE: whatsmyname @ 1002 – That’s always true though. If you can afford current prices and you plan to live there long term it’s always worth buying. If you can’t afford current prices however or you’d be stretched too thin, you may be tempted to wait for a cooling off.
RE: dariakus @ 1003 –
Except we may have already had the cooling off period this past year.
For those who are praying for a recession to cool things off, be careful what you wish for. In a recession, a lot of people who think they are totally indispensable find themselves with their computer access frozen and a message to report to HR for outplacement services and a cardboard box.
@seattletimes @genebalk The article (see link in tweet) (from NY Times originally ) is en excellent expose of of how a 2017 Federal tax break fuels a speculative building boom that makes life harder for low income tenants, rather than better. A local Seattle investigation is in order.
https://twitter.com/coqumragep279/status/1168617451229085696?s=20
RE: Deerhawke @ 1004 –
What is this, you are trying to blame the upcoming recession on people who did NOT participate in the speculation, by saying that they are “praying for it”?
Where are your morals, man? YOU and your bubble-mongering ilk are responsible for the recession that will inevitably come as a result of your speculative misdeeds. YOU are at fault, not the people who fought against unproductive bubbles and unproductive asset inflation. Shame on you.
RE: dariakus @ 1003 – That is also always true. I don’t think that Bob Shiller or whatsmyname would ever encourage someone to stretch too thin or buy a house if they can’t afford it. And I’m sure we all agree that there are always people who can’t afford it. I just thought that the written summation did not explain Mr. Shiller’s stated position very well.
By dariakus @ 1003:
Isn’t this basically what everyone here believes? I know I do.
The only person here who says “stretch yourself to buy” is Erik. (And we love him for it.)
The Realtors we used to make fun of back in 2008 don’t even say “Buy now, or be priced out forever” anymore. They probably all quit in the last recession.
It’s Justme and others who say the opposite. “Don’t buy even if you can afford it. Wait, it will get cheaper. Buyer Strike!” etc etc etc.
The idea of “you should buy if you can afford it” has got to be one of the dumber statements that get repeated on seattlebubble.
Hey, bubblemongers. Some of you can definitely “afford” to buy some overpriced property right now. How come you are not buying? Oh, you have a house already? But buy it as an investment property, then? No? You have some already? But buy another one. It’s affordable! Why not? If not, there must be something else you can buy. Maybe a yacht? Or a luxury car? An airplane or some other expensive toy. Maybe a flat in London? Come on, what is holding you back? You have the downpayment, right? I don’t understand, why are you not buying. It is just a little debt, that’s all. (sarcasm OFF).
By Justme @ 1009:
Do you think it is good form to change the words of another’s sentence, just slightly changing the meaning, and then put quotes around it?
Or to infer that if someone says you are praying for something; that they believe the coming of that thing would be the result of your prayers?
I think that if you were more confident in your case, you could find better arguments.
RE: whatsmyname @ 1010 –
Take a look in the mirror, dude. Are you talking to yourself, perhaps?
PS: are you buying anything? Why not?
By Justme @ 1011:
Those were your straw men from this thread and this afternoon that I was referencing. Unless you are standing behind me; why would I expect to see those in the mirror?
P.S. I’m looking hard at building something.
RE: whatsmyname @ 1012 –
So, what are you buying? Or do you own the land at a lower price already?
RE: Justme @ 1013 – At the moment, I am looking into building. I have some land and a half baked plan. It needs time and work. I like houses and I have seen some decent house deals in the past year, but that would detract from what I am trying to do. There is a time for everything – but that doesn’t mean it wouldn’t be the right time for someone else.
I’m not saying everyone has to get a house – in fact, everyone can’t. If you don’t want one, there’s no point to complaining about what’s out there. And if you do, there’s no point to complaining that strangers on the internet are trying to force you.
If memory serves, we first crossed paths in 2015. You appeared convinced that the whole overpriced mess would collapse, and soon. Go back to Tim’s NWMLS graphs. Who is getting in your way more than you?
By Justme @ 1006:
Wow!!
I took that comment to reword – be careful what you wish for cause you just might get it. I don’t believe anyone who reads or posts on this blog is powerful enough to be responsible for the next recession.
What are “speculative misdeeds”? In my world they are investments that lose money. But I suspect you have something else in mind.
RE: uwp @ 1008 –
I overextend and then retract. I guess it’s a non linear approach. Buy a bunch and hope they go up in value. If they double in value, maybe sell? If they don’t double from what you paid, keep them rented until they double in value. When you sell an asset that doubles in value, pay one of the other assets off so you are in a positive cash flow position. Then just rinse and repeat until the cash flow is 1.5X your earned income. Maybe flip a couple along the way to build your reserves? Someone could be out of the rat race in 10 years pretty easily. If I had the cash to buy 20 units in 2012, I totally would have done that, and be living off rental income right now. No more waking up to an alarm clock. No more long commute. Spend all day with my family. Now that would be a great life.
RE: Justme @ 1006 –
Justme, you posture, exaggerate and twist the facts to try to fit your predetermined narrative so that you can feel like you are doing some kind of good in the world.
But at base you are really just simply angry. You have never shared anything personal about yourself so we don’t know why you are so angry. Most likely you are angry at yourself for opportunities you missed. You project this anger to turn your mind away from deep feelings of remorse and self-loathing.
Sorry, I am not going to take the bait and formulate an angry riposte to your attack.
Long ago I learned that people who act as you do, deserve not anger in return, but pity.
More
Ah, yes, the irony is quite rich. The greedbags, speculators and insiders try to project their misdeeds and the blame onto renters and other innocent people. Then they try to blame those who did not participate for the bubble, the bust and the recession. And then there is the free psychoanalysis were they label you as angry or suffering some other imagined deficiency if you speak up against them. Oh, and then they try to scare you with imagery of recession and lost jobs if you point out that prices are much too high and should drop more. Don’t wish for lower prices! It will cause recession and you may very well lose your job. Buy now, don’t be that guy that is causing the recession!
It is quite a spectacle, really. Of course they never address the real issue, which is the bubble and the speculation and who is causing it. Instead it is all about tarring the opposition and their invented and imagined personal deficiencies.
Buy now at near-peak prices, or else you are angry, and we can’t have that!
Buy now at near-peak prices (I have mine already!)
Buy now at near-peak prices, don’t be that guy that causes a recession!
Buy my teardown or flip, lots of successful people want it, you can be important, too!
Buy now, you can afford it.
The only thing I haven’t heard here is another chestnut that often gets bandied about … it is (was: ;)) cheaper than renting (at least until you lost all of your downpayment).
RE: Justme @ 1018 –
It is hard to find balance between the world as it is, and the world as you want it to be. I struggle with this too.
An Assortment of Opinions and All Differ
Great job blogging differences without going into an high tech rage like this guy, now they say all the high tech and get it quick [accurate?] information is making us angry and inpatient, it should all be as quick and brainless as pushing a keyboard button now….LOL
https://www.studyfinds.org/hurry-up-modern-patience-thresholds-lower-than-ever-before-survey-finds/
Instant gratification in anything in life is not a good plan, its full of potholes and rattle snakes anyway.
Pull Out Your Mug of Yuban, Its Time to Brief the Seattle Times Today [tailored for Seattle Real estate livability impacting Price Trending:
The Seattle Times
MORNING BRIEF
Tuesday, September 3, 2019
Dive boat engulfed in flames
‘I can’t breathe! There’s no escape hatch’
The panicked mayday call came from a 75-foot commercial diving boat that erupted in flames off Southern California yesterday, killing at least 25 people. The fire broke out as passengers slept below deck. Soon after, a couple in a nearby fishing boat were startled awake by a terrible pounding on the side of their vessel. Outside were five wet, distraught members of the diving boat’s crew.
NEED TO KNOW
Hurricane Dorian is pounding the Bahamas today, the second day of an onslaught that has sent floodwaters up to the second floors of buildings, trapped people in attics and killed at least five. Grand Bahama’s airport is under 6 feet of water. Dorian is expected to approach Florida later today, with forecasts of its path changing often. Here’s the science behind why it parked over the Bahamas and wouldn’t go away.
School starts in many districts today, but it’s going to feel like summer for a bit longer. The forecast calls for a warm, sunny spell in the Seattle area before a chance of rain arrives.
Enjoy Morning Brief? Then you’ll love full digital access. Help us continue to bring you the news you care about, now. Subscribe to The Seattle Times for just $1 to start.
SUBSCRIBE TODAY
RURAL ROAD BECOMES A FREEWAY
Highway 9
Good luck driving Highway 9 at rush hour in Lake Stevens. Big-city traffic is straining the fast-growing community. With more than 90 percent of employed residents working somewhere else, the highway has evolved from a two-lane road in the 1980s to an unofficial freeway. Help may be on the way, but the plans are controversial…”
“…If you bought Seahawks tickets, maybe you’ve already broken the bank. We’re here to help with a roundup of the best cheap eats at CenturyLink Field, as well as what to avoid. (Did you know you can bring in food from outside if you follow a few rules?)…”
“…Affording your dream vacation is possible with a little planning. Saving and budgeting are your priorities, and these tips can make your big trip happen, with designated envelopes of cash or apps with daily spending limits.
WORTH A READ
It’s decision time for Seattle’s streetcars. The city needs to decide this month what to do about the stalled First Avenue line. But key questions remain — including how much the project will cost. Bigger, heavier trolleys will force changes to platforms, bridges and more.
Top basketball prospect Cade Cunningham will visit UW next month. The 6-foot-7 point guard from Texas is ranked No. 2 nationally, making him the most sought-after recruit among the Huskies’ 2020 targets.
Corporate donors are shunning state Rep. Matt Shea as the controversies around him grow. Perhaps unwittingly, the donors have bankrolled a broadcasting platform that the Spokane Valley Republican has used to push his plans to secede from Washington. With investigators probing whether Shea promoted political violence, let’s look way back at the only member of the state House who was ever expelled.
For parents whose children have food allergies, back-to-school time can be extra stressful. Here are a few tips for smart, safe eating at school and at home….”
Produced by Advertising Publications
Being environmentally conscientious doesn’t just help the Earth. It can reduce your living expenses. Cut your water use, slash your energy bill and help create a sustainable lifestyle with these five simple home updates.
EDITORIAL/OPINION
The dysfunctional Federal Election Commission has broken down completely at a time of unprecedented peril for American elections. The system must be rebuilt immediately, The Seattle Times editorial board writes.
TODAY’S WEATHER
Mostly sunny. High 80. Low 59. Sunrise 6:30. Sunset 7:45.
TODAY IN HISTORY
The first South Park Bridge, a wooden truss swing bridge spanning the Duwamish River, opens in 1915. The structure causes engineers constant trouble until 1931, when it is replaced by a bridge about 100 feet farther south, on wood pilings in sandy riverfront soil. The second bridge is closed as a safety hazard in 2010, and after four years of political wrangling and economic woes for neighborhood businesses, a new span opens in 2014, with a $161 million price tag.
SWE’s Take:
We built bridges on sand in 2010 that immediately fail, brainless village idiot planning in my book…so much bad planning we build the structures so our heavier new trolleys will collapse them instead of planning in the extra”safety factor” weight…did I miss something here, it sure sounds like Seattle’s IQ is down the tube if I didn’t.
Yeah there’s election fraud, 13% of illegal aliens vote.
If the elections are so corrupted why don’t you release the vote counts
RE: Justme @ 1018 –
Are you a homeowner?
RE: softwarengineer @ 1020 –
SWE, What bridge are you referring to that failed in 2010?
RE: richard @ 990 – Yikes, that was not the answer to the question I asked. You seem like an unhappy person. I hope you find what you are looking for.
I’v just visited Seattle downtown recently. Amazing how much has been changed. More office building and apartment. Seattle definitely has one of the beautiful cityscape on west coast. Rival Seattle are Bellevue. If generally speaking housing is not good investment compare to stocks, invest in primary residency housing in Seattle is definite a good or better option. Housing, like others, has economical cycle. We are probably at the end of cycle now (from 2009-20019). There will be another cycle coming (2020->??). If you can’t afford to buy now, I don’t think you can afford in the next cycle. I am not saying housing can’t be down 5-10% in the coming recession. I can definite say that housing will cost more 10 years from now.
RE: TheBenBernank @ 1023 – are you some kind of Samaritan who is trying to help me find a long term housing solution or just you are just one of those so called “winners” who love to see other people struggling? Yes, FED and the Chinese dirty money is on your side but mathematically the qualified home buyer pool is getting smaller and smaller, let’s see what will happen.
RE: BacktoBasics @ 1024 – please go ahead and buy a house now, will you?
RE: richard @ 1026 – RE: richard @ 1026 – RE: richard @ 1026 –
Yes, I am buying. I have seen mortgage drop to 3.5% level.
RE: BacktoBasics @ 1027 – hopefully you walk your talk. sounds like you care more on interesting rate than price. interesting.
RE: richard @ 1028 –
a -1% interest reduction x 30 years/2 is about -15% price reduction or verse versa assuming if we pay the same price. So interest reduction=price reduction.
RE: BacktoBasics @ 1029 – no. price won’t stay constant, it usually goes up with lower interest rate (for similar monthly payment). I would prefer low price with high interest rate than high price and low interest rate.
Anyone else notice there seem to be a lot of listings hitting the market today?
RE: JustNoise @ 1031 –
This morning I remember seeing 3915 in king county. I see 3960 in king county now. A delta of 45 doesn’t seem substantial.
RE: richard @ 1030 –
I like to buy with higher rates and refinance at a lower rate. You get the low price and low rate this way.
RE: Erik @ 1032 – Interesting. Must just be that there are many more in those 45 listings within my personal search criteria.
RE: JustNoise @ 1031 –
The conventional wisdom is that are two markets in Seattle. The bigger of the two is Spring Market which really kicks off when the winter weather clears and we get some sunlight– generally around Valentine’s Day. It runs through June. Then there is the smaller Fall Market which starts after Labor Day and goes until the dark and rains force everyone inside to seek Hygge.
For people like me in the world of new construction, you would never really think about bringing a house on the market in July or August. If you are going to have a house that is ready during the summer, why bring it on the market when many people will be on vacation? Save it until right after Labor Day when people come back to work, school, etc.
So there will probably be a bump in listings this week. Check the inventory figures for previous years to see how big a bump you should expect.
@ JustNoise – Monday and Tuesday are big days for properties to go under contract so your new listings may be offset by pendings. Also, one would expect more new listings the week after a holiday (maybe not on Monday though) as new listings always drop like a rock during holiday weeks.
RE: Justme @ 1001 –
Odd to hear Norm Macdonald being interviewed regarding housing…
Sno Co sales flat YOY for Aug. Despite insanely low interest rates.
Refinance business is through the roof. 30 yr rates at 3.375% at .125%. Goodness! It’s official– I have no life. Many nights up to midnight and a few beyond this past August. People in the biz have no clue how tough it’s been on Independent Escrow and Title Co’ Escrow staff since really July.
I don’t know what this portends for the market because frankly we are in uncharted waters here. After this refi push is done, then what? When will the next cohort of borrowers be ready to refi again?If rates are in the two’s? People had better have a plan.
A large number of refi clients have purchased in the last two years or so, many in the last twelve months.
RE: S-Crow @ 1038 –
That’s probably the best indicator of whether or not prices are down, up, flat. Have you seen any refi’s of people who bought 12 months ago that didn’t appraise at last year’s value for the refi? I had a client reach out who was worried because the Redfin and Zillow AVM’s said his value was down. Appraised for more than he paid for the refi with no problem.
Are you seeing anyone get near the end on a refi and then have it fall apart on appraisal?
@S-Crow – Re: What will happen next. I take it you mean for the lending/refi biz and not necessarily for the for sale market. Wouldn’t things go back to how they were for most of the last year, with rates higher than they had been in a long time (assuming rates don’t fall further), little refi’s
People better have a plan? Do you mean those in the mortgage biz?
Just saw three houses that were for sale in the early spring that didn’t sell come back on the market.
They were priced in the spring as if things were going to continue with +10% price increases from 2018 and they all seemed ludicrously over-priced to me and they just sat. Now they’re back: Two went from $950k to $850k and one went from a laughable $1.05M to $860k. Stealth way to avoid showing a large price reduction?
The market in the $950-$1.2M range also seems very stagnant. I see a lot in this price range that just sit for months – many with large price reductions of $50-100k. Sadly, it’s a bit too rich for my blood. But man do you get such a better house than the $800-900k range for just a tiny bit more.
Also just noticed this one back on the market. Anyone know what’s going on? I find it hard to believe it has had three pending sales all fail in the last two months. Or is that a thing that can actually happen?
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/9125-17th-Ave-NE-Seattle-WA-98115/48946512_zpid/
RE: towelie @ 1042 – By towelie @ 1041:
I feel you here.
And have been wondering about that same house! One of the redfin insights says it has a steep driveway. I assumed that, combined with all the failed sales, meant it has some sort of land engineering issue.
RE: Deerhawke @ 1035 – Does that mean I should expect a higher proportion of new construction vs resale properties coming on the market this month?
RE: towelie @ 1042 – I also see they added pictures to the listing to make it clear the house is at the top of the driveway and not the bottom. Before, it looked like it was at the bottom of a small ravine. And since water runs downhill and all, I never bothered touring it. Maybe they’ve also had troubles getting people in to see it?
RE: JustNoise @ 1044 –
Normally I would say that there would be marginally more, but perhaps not. This is an odd year. We have the ever present threat of recession. Every day we get weird economic news from the orange headed bozo via tweet. Will Brexit happen in a month and if so, how? The Chinese economy might be headed toward recession and what would that look like? Oh and we have an election on the horizon. So maybe agents and builders are rushing listings on while the getting is good (or at least not worse).
Right now Redfin is only showing 3975 for King County. Maybe that extra 50 listings since the weekend is all you will see.
What are you hoping to find ?
RE: don @ 1022 – The Duwamish River Bridge from the Seattle Times article. It was built years ago, but so was the Golden Gate.
RE: Deerhawke @ 1046 – LOL Deerhawke, even Greenspan is joining in the “Chicken Little” sky is is falling on negative interest rates, “only a matter of time”. I really believe savvy savers are all going to rush to banks to lose interest on their money, because that’s what it would take. Correct me if I’m missing something, the ‘financial experts” with MBAs at MSM are clear as mud on this topic.
RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 1039 –
I had to look up AVM = Automated Valuation Model.
I’ve seen the acronym AVM used a couple of times by Ardell now. At first I thought it had something to do with Ardell’s calling Zillow and others “3rd party advertising, non-brokerage sites”. But on 3d thought, maybe the acronym AVM also stands for “Advertising Valuation Model” :-). Not that brokers don’t advertise and compete for sellers by hyping their valuation of houses.
Parody News Release: “666 Green Lake Bottoms was raised to a buy at John L. Welsh brokerage, with a price target of infinity. CEO and chief market commentator J. Lennox Welsh cited strong previous price gains as an indicator that this will never end. The ongoing scumsucking bottomfeeding has lead to massive froth piling up on the surface, and at this point, nothing can stop the buoyancy of froth.”
The August 2019 MOM Financial YTD, YOY Report Was Due By Now
Its been delayed? Lots of refinancing raw data to incorporate assuming Bubblehead Escrow is right on, he usually is.
Hey, got any “Orange Head caused tariff price allegations” to report on anything we buy now. Last I saw my cheese shrank to $4.99 for the 2 lb bag at Safeway and I see meat trending down in price too. Gasoline at Covington Fred Meyer is $2.91/gal. Vine tomato are 98 cent/lb at WINCO right now…etc, etc…restaurant wages going up? Jumbo Jacks and Croissant Supremes went up about 6% this week….but that’s not tariff related. I saw a deluge of BOGO advertisements for fast food chains, even McDonalds; a few weeks ago there were practically none. We can’t afford restaurants anymore? How much is a single patty burger at Wendy’s now? $5 each?
Overall, sounds like 0% COLA, except Seattle area rent and housing…LOL
RE: Justme @ 1049 –
You should know by now that I will call something what it is. AVM is an Automated Valuation Method or Model and I track 7 of those. It is any Automated System that comes up with the value of a house using an algorithm.
I will normally use AVM rather than single out any one method, though the two most common in this area are Zillow and Redfin. On a home I am working on that is not on market, Redfin = $484,692, Zillow $659,305, Tribeca $628,374 – $647,356, Homes.com $703,300 which is exactly the same as the internal MLS number, so I wonder if Homes.com is using the same system, Spokeo $656,000.
Commenters here have talked about Zillow Zestimates and Redfin Estimates frequently for years. Those are both AVMs…Automated Valuation Medthods’Models to determine home price, in particular for an off market property.
Some AVMs integrate a list price, once listed, more than others and more quickly than others. It’s a common topic of conversation. I usually take a screen shot of a couple of these AVM values just before I list a house so I can see how much and how quickly the list price changes the AVM value.
RE: Deerhawke @ 1046 –
In an ideal world, a SFH in one of Seattle’s northwest neighborhoods, though a townhome with no HOA would be fine (I’m in a condo in SLU now and IMO, the HOA is the worst part of that). Some place my family would happy and comfortable living for 5-10 years. I’ve been looking for 1.5 years now and have a nice wad of cash saved. But…haven’t felt comfortable pulling the trigger for a variety of reasons.
Honestly, I’m very glad I didn’t buy when I first started looking and from where I’m sitting, the market keeps getting better while I keep saving money. Will this continue? Well, that’s how I ended up on the bubble. I refuse to participate in the frenzy and bidding wars. If a listing even has an offer review date, I won’t tour unless it’s past. Watching my peers (STEMies with 6 figure salaries and partners that usually have 6 figure salaries to boot) purchase houses in Seattle has left me genuinely unsettled. Most don’t bother saving up the traditional downpayment. Most go far above the budget they started with (50% more in some cases). Many take out mortgages that preclude savings of any kind (I understand the temptation – my mortgage broker will give me far more than I’m comfortable borrowing). It’s hard to know what’s best to do. But if this is how “well off” families “afford” Seattle properties, that’s not my jam. I can’t even imagine what’s going on in the “lower” tiers, but none of this can possibly be sustainable, right?
RE: softwarengineer @ 1050 –
Weekly shopping report would be cool, I like it.
RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 1051 –
Parody News Release UPDATE: “666 Green Lake Bottoms was raised from a buy to a Buy! Now! at John L. Welsh brokerage. The price target is unchanged at infinity.”
RE: JustNoise @ 1052 – RE: Deerhawke @ 1046 –
I should also mention there is justification behind this reckless home purchasing that I’ve witnessed. The logic basically being that these families will only be pinched for a couple years and will then be able to sell their houses for double what they bought them for. And perhaps this is completely true! But it seems like a risky proposition given current conditions.
RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 1039 – I don’t see refi’s fall apart due to appraisals but I do see lower than expected appraisals impact less cash out to the borrower.
RE: N @ 1040 – “What’s next” is my question about how the lending industry will react to refi’s that exhaust itself out. That business pipeline will eventually fade. I’ve been around long enough to know it will. Will the lending and real estate industry get on the line to those policy makers as they did last Fall when the market reacted exceptionally poorly to 5% rates?
Will the lending industry offer new products to keep the churn going? If a huge portion of those buyers with 4-5% rates that bought over the last three years or so refi at 3.5% or less……..those folks are no longer fee bait for refinancing again, maybe ever. Unless rates drop under 3% or maybe they invent some sort of Hybrid Adjustable Rate Mortgages start up again that makes payments more feasible in nosebleed pricing levels.
“Have a plan” is my sounding the alarm for people to reduce debt loads*** and re-think where they are in their big financial picture where real estate may not do what they think it should do or the stock market doesn’t do what they think it should do.
I can say with confidence that if rates were not at 3.5% and under the market would be “slower” or “more normal” (as the real estate pro’s like to offer as a narrative).
***not our culture to do so.
RE: S-Crow @ 1056 –
Refi appraisals are what kill me. If I could get fair appraisals, I would be doing much better. Any tips for getting a high appraisal on a refi? Any particular lenders get high refi appraisals?
RE: S-Crow @ 1057 –
I think the bigger issue long term is that those really low rates will create “rate lock” for millions of borrowers.
Who will ever leave a place where they have a 3% or 3.5% mortgage when their move-up house is more expensive and has a 6% mortgage ?
Seattle Times Brief Tailored/Related to Seattle Real Estate Purchase Planning or Livability Issues in Seattle that Can Affect Sales….and the Yuban coffee to sip near by…
“”…The Seattle Times
MORNING BRIEF
Thursday, September 5, 2019
Jets parked close together at Boeing Field
Boeing’s fix to 737 MAX isn’t enough, Europe’s aviation-safety agency says
As MAX jets jam a section of Boeing Field, awaiting a return to the skies, the European Union Aviation Safety Agency is laying out demands that appear more stringent than what the FAA wants. If the FAA and Europe don’t reach agreement on when and how to clear the jet to fly, an unprecedented divergence in worldwide regulation would complicate the schedules of many airlines. (Photo: Mike Siegel / The Seattle Times)
When Amazon’s fast, free shipping delivers heartbreak: Gabrielle, 9 months old, was killed when a driver delivering Amazon packages crashed into her mother’s Jeep. The company’s delivery contractors have been involved in more than 60 accidents since June 2015 that resulted in serious injuries, including 10 deaths, according to an investigation published today. And that’s likely a fraction of the accidents that have occurred.
Seattle police are searching for a group of people who have stolen thousands of dollars’ worth of drugs from Puget Sound medical facilities and pharmacies. Surveillance footage shows four members of the group, which is believed responsible for more than 10 overnight burglaries.
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THROWBACK THURSDAY
Historical photo
This swath of Seattle land has held so much life: the Duwamish Tribe’s potlatch celebrations, the pioneering Denny family’s extensive gardens, the horses and mules that helped in the Spanish-American War. And then there were the carnivals, traveling circuses and pro baseball players. Can you guess where this is, and when the picture was taken? Check your answer and see how different the site looks now. (Photo courtesy of Museum of History & Industry)
WHAT WE’RE TALKING ABOUT
Seattle, you love your beards. This is the nation’s fifth most facial-hair-friendly city (see if you can guess the top four). A grooming-tool company is trying to tap into our hirsute hankerings — and raise money to fight prostate cancer — with free trims at a 30-foot mobile barbershop tomorrow in Seattle.
School got off to a rocky start for some Seattle students yesterday:
Public high-school students get free transit passes, but a run-in with Sound Transit fare-enforcement officers has a teacher and local officials howling.
School-bus delays in Seattle weren’t as bad as last year, but parents reported some problems.
More than 50 students walked out to protest disparities between schools in low-income and wealthy neighborhoods.
Parents, are you doing a happy dance? We’d like to hear how you’re marking the start of school.
Aristo, who just passed an eight-grade science test, isn’t your typical kid. The Allen Institute for Artificial Intelligence is celebrating a breakthrough with a system that accomplished what couldn’t be done by any machine just four years ago. See if you can outwit Aristo.
Can Russell Wilson lead the Seahawks back to the Super Bowl? The national media are wildly divergent on this issue. Make your predictions and compare with our experts. And in case you want to watch the games but don’t have cable, here’s a look at some of the most cost-effective options to get you started.
Provided by YWCA Seattle | King | Snohomish
Job seekers make the same mistakes often. Don’t be one of them. Here’s how to prepare yourself (and your references) in advance, what to wear to your interview and 11 common mistakes to avoid.
WORTH A READ
The Seattle City Council will consider a ban on natural gas in new homes and buildings. Councilmember Mike O’Brien favors electricity for heating and cooking, pointing to the environmental impacts of natural gas.
Did King County Executive Dow Constantine pressure county staff to grant a lucrative concessions deal to his political supporter? Constantine is celebrating “vindication” after a whistleblower investigation found insufficient evidence, but the man who complained wasn’t the only parks employee who perceived pressure coming from the top.
Gov. Jay Inslee dominated the Democratic presidential candidates’ forum on climate change last night, even though he didn’t speak there and isn’t running anymore. Compare where the politicians who are running stand on the issues. Closer to home, King County Council candidate Abigail Doerr is touting a climate plan that involves denser housing, zero-emission county vehicles and more.
“Watching the Seahawks is always all about the food.” What happens when you take two food critics to a game? They end up comparing a whole lot of meat, and they also taste-test some intriguing new drinks. Here are their pro tips. ICYMI, we also rounded up the best cheap eats (well, relatively) at CenturyLink Field.
Produced by Advertising Publications
Not all tech-company jobs require technology skills. No coding is necessary for these 10 popular non-techie niche jobs. This easy-to-use graphic reveals the skills and education you need to land them – and what they pay in Seattle.
EDITORIAL/OPINION
Instead of balking at Mayor Jenny Durkan’s efforts to halt “RV ranching” in Seattle, the City Council should be expediting the effort, The Seattle Times editorial board writes. Voters should hold incumbents accountable for not addressing this problem years ago.
TODAY’S WEATHER
Partly cloudy. High 78. Low 60. Sunrise 6:33. Sunset 7:41.
CORRECTION
The Today in History item in Wednesday’s Morning Brief, about Boeing moving its world headquarters to Chicago, used information from HistoryLink.org that incorrectly listed the other cities that had been considered. They were Dallas and Denver. In addition, the move did not affect 1,000 employees; it affected half of the 1,000 employees at Boeing’s offices in Renton.
TODAY IN HISTORY
In 1925, a cloudburst in the Wenatchee Mountains sends a 20-foot wall of water into the town of Appleyard, near Wenatchee, killing 16 people. The flood wipes out a 6-acre campground and tears the three-story Springwater Hotel from its foundation, sending the top two stories crashing into another hotel 60 feet away. The deluge also derails six locomotives and damages hundreds of boxcars loaded with apples. Inspectors estimate that 500 boxcars of apples, worth about $200,000, were ruined
SWE’s Tailor Take:
Wowza….European Safety Aerospace Agency locking horns with America’s FAA over 737 MAX 8 certification….our allies in Europe, LOL. Generally speaking if our FAA certifies it, it can sell worldwide. This Brexit fight in Europe is making all of Europe thin skinned and inpatient?
Amazon drivers smashing into Jeeps with babies? Good gosh we should outlaw Amazon then…LOL
Time to yank that gas furnace and water heater out of your new homes, and mandatory replace them with what, wood stoves and your cars with horses Inslee now says?….LOL…hey, but if ya ban guns too, how can we be real cowboys in the “New Green Deal” covered wagon west with no fossil fuels?
Eating at a Seattle Sports Event:
$15 Chips and Cheese
$10 Hotdogs
$10 Beer
LOL….$50 each for food doesn’t stretch far at a Mariners Game…LOL
Ya don’t Poptart Microsoft source control S/W development jobs from colleges or learn Manufacturing Engineers’ special skills from colleges for Boeing either…its all mostly job experience and skills that take 5-10 years on the job training, period. That’s why ITs at MSFT don’t need college degrees and techinals working Manufacturing Engineering don’t either. We’ve lost and/or laid off all our Boeing/MSFT local talent years ago with skills and experience in manufacturing down the proverbial toilet, and its gonna take 5-10 years to learn it back. We better start now. The foreign H-1Bs and outsourcing are “foreign worker” subpar replacements and make low safety and/or junk requiring “continuous” weekly S/W patches.
Prediction analysis of real estate prices for investing is not simple box thinking using unrelated “simplified” past raw data; its chaos theory “fractal” Probability Theory IMO…meaning its chaotic shaped and its only solutions are chaotic shaped too. Ya gotta think out of the box or fail now IMO. The Jurassic park “Recession” dinosaurs are breaking loose from our old style predictions, its inevitable in my book until we match fractal solution to fractal problem and stop the monsters now.
RE: JustNoise @ 1055 –
I think the main reason for home buying right now is that people want to get on with their lives. Prices have risen dramatically, but they say to themselves – “it’s just the way things are”. We have no choice but to do it. They also think a home will somehow change their lives, make spouses closer, make their kids smarter, etc.
Of course, they are just following normal human inclinations, like most other people. And they will never be wealthy, or may even struggle financially, just like most other people. Successful people exercise a higher degree of patience in their endeavors, and they know how to keep their emotions in check when it is prudent to do so.
@ S Crow – Thanks for your insights. Regarding the cash out refi’s. What percentage of refi’s would you estimate are cash out?
RE: S-Crow @ 1057 –
>>Will the lending industry offer new products to keep the churn going?
The mortgage industry in the US is really just a scam that siphons fees from the borrowers and bondholders, while sticking taxpayers with the losses when things go bad, and sticking pension funds and retirement savers with low yields all the time.
Fed interest rate manipulation and loss of yield due to incessant early redemptions (from re-financing) completes a system that is corrupt from top to bottom, while pretending to support “affordability”.
Does that pretty much sum things up? I think so.
RE: Deerhawke @ 1059 –
Agree. Home owner locked 3.0% 30 year will stay with their house forever unless they have to move out of this area. Some people questioned on this forum: pay 1 million on 3.0% rate or pay 0,5 million on 6% loan. The problem, wages and material cost inflation make 0,5 million house impossible to build unless land price drop from 0.5 mil to 0 which I don’t think ever happen.
RE: Deerhawke @ 1059 –
Is it documented or understood that this sort of thing happens? And how does it affect real estate trends? I guess my assumption would be that it always costs more to “move up”. I can see why someone wouldn’t bother moving to the same tier of house (unless it was in a better location).
By Joe @ 1061:
I can understand this rationale though. If you believe that renting is somehow destabilizing, the risk or cost of buying now may be worth it to you.
RE: Joe @ 1061 –
That’s an excellent comment, thank you! I am trying to think like this, it’s not always easy. Great patience is required.
By whatsmyname @ 1002:
If you are still confused, here’s what Shiller said today – “It would suggest declining home prices in the near future, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if house prices started falling.”
IMHO, you should stay out of this market until the dust settles. (18 months – 2 years?)
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-05/nobel-laureate-shiller-says-u-s-home-prices-could-start-falling
RE: Joe @ 1061 – i checked pending in Bellevue . The is no lack of 2-3million range house in pending. I feel there are a lot of rich people (from California maybe). Right now, 700-800K can only get you a dump, it is really not worth it, I can only think people buy such dump for speculation. But if the house is really nice, it seems a lot of people don’t care to pay a lot more for that. Very strange to me as a value buyer.
Wow!
Almost 2 months since last update from the creator.
Lame.
Hopefully no one is donating to this site.
RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 1051 –
Yeah, I understand that their estimate models now incorporate selling price into account much quicker, but it seems to defeat the purpose of the estimate, does it not? The estimate should be there to show if the house is priced way under/over some approximate guess as to what it will probably sell for based on previous sales numbers, location, and size/features. To have it adjust within days to the current for sale price offers zero insight.
What was the point of those houses I saw that magically saw their estimates go up to match the selling price and then ratchet back down over the next 90 days with each price drop when the house didn’t sell. The house value didn’t go up and then back down, obviously. But that’s exactly what the Zillow and Redfin estimates now show.
These estimates are now only really good for looking at houses that are not for sale and haven’t sold recently. Again, why bother? I get that agents and sellers likely resent them now that prices are trending slightly down and it is difficult to sell above the estimate price, but I didn’t see much complaining when the trend was the exact opposite for many years straight.
RE: JustNoise @ 1065 –
Sure rate lock happens. If you do the math, it is pretty straight forward.
A young couple with small kids buys a 1200sf house in North Wedgewood for $650K at 3.5%. Five years later they are feeling really cramped but they have both had promotions so start to look at something larger in Bryant. Now their move up house is 2500 SF but costs $1 million. But interest rates are back to a more normal 6%.
Look at the difference in monthly PITI. Now do you think they are going to move or remodel? As that trend spreads across the market, what do you think will happen to inventory?
RE: Lulu @ 1064 –
I think what some haven’t quite come to realize yet is that the entire world is trapped in a low rate regime. If rates went up to the 6% range we would instantly have a massive, worldwide financial crises – at least on par with 2008-2009, if not worse.
While it wouldn’t directly hit US homeowners as hard as 2008 since our mortgage debt isn’t nearly as out of wack as before, we have piled on debt in every other sector in the last decade: credit cards, student loans, car loans, corporate debt, government debt – all at all time highs, even as a percent of GDP. History may not repeat, but it sure does rhyme.
Our federal government interest payments would skyrocket if rates went back to “normal” and a ton of companies would go under as low rates have allowed them to take out massive debts to do things like buy back stocks. We raised rates from an” end of the world”, all-time low of 0.25% up to a meager 2.5% and then the stock market crapped its pants and we are now lowering rates again. Lowering rates with unemployment at an all-time low and the stock market 5% off of an all time high. And of course we did little in the way of actual financial reforms since 2008: we now have even fewer banks in total, but they are now even bigger and still to big to fail. How did we not at least fix that one glaring issue?
The idea of a near-zero fed funds rate, negative yielding government debt, and central banks buying government bonds by the trillions, (let alone the semi-serious talk of universal basic income and the rise of Modern Monetary Theory) is all stuff that you would have been laughed out of the room for merely mentioning as a possibility in economic circles a mere 12 years ago. Like total crackpot level stuff. It’s a truly crazy world now and anyone that claims otherwise has their head in the sand.
I personally think we are now in Japan 2.0: low rates for decades and anemic inflation (since we can’t raise rates due to all of our debt). I just fear that when that stock market comes back down to reality, it doesn’t take most of main street with it once again. The Fed will bring rates to zero (maybe even negative? See half of Europe right now), re-start quantitative easing, and hope that it does something as opposed to nothing. With that said, on paper Japan’s charts of debt, stock market, housing, etc. look like complete carnage from their peak around 1990. But I doubt a Japanese citizen would tell you their life has been hell the last 30 years. So who knows what the future may bring!
RE: Deerhawke @ 1072 –
I see a lot of comments about interest rates, but not much about the principal, property taxes, utilities, and maintenance. Lower rates are no longer enough to entice buyers since annual taxes are now exceeding mortgage interest in many states. In Deerhawke’s example, I would not be surprised if that couple will not have good jobs in five years. Manufacturing jobs went to China and the remaining tech jobs are going offshore and to Indian staffing agencies. We have reached debt saturation and it is clearly showing.
RE: DavidE @ 1074 –
Yes there are a lot of other things that could happen with our hypothetical young couple, but I am assuming they are young techies and have a potential future in Seattle.
But it is an expensive future in a world class technology-oriented city. What I am seeing in my kid’s age cohort (late 20’s, early 30’s) is highly motivated young people living in a Tier-one tech location ( Bay Area, NYC, Seattle, Boston) or moving for lifestyle reasons to a less expensive Tier-two tech location (Portland, Boise, Austin, Nashville ).
RE: Deerhawke @ 1072 – Or they could just move to Lynnwood or Bothell and live off one income. Mom could stay home and actually watch her own kids, God forbid ;)
RE: towelie @ 1073 – This is why we need a modern day Volcker – someone who will NOT bow to political pressure and do the right thing for the US, normalize interest rates.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-coming-recession-could-force-the-federal-reserve-to-swap-greenbacks-for-digital-dollars-2019-09-06
Anyone care to comment on this article? I know it’s not directly related to real estate but it is indirectly related.
How close are we to the central bank issuing e-dollars? I too think, like the article says, that the fed probably doesn’t have the tools to counter the next big recession. Rates are already too low and any lowering of the rates will have a nominal effect.
RE: Deerhawke @ 1075 – Tiering cities is sort of a mindless exercise, no? Sort of like ranking NFL quarterbacks…
Not saying I agree, but there are a lot of people out there who would classify Seattle as Tier 2.
RE: TheBenBernank @ 1076 – Speaking as someone in a tech industry single earner household, I’m not sure what houses you’re seeing in Bothell that are within reach.
RE: TheBenBernank @ 1076 –
Or dad could stay home and actually watch his own kids, god forbid. Winky face.
RE: Deerhawke @ 1072 –
Yeah… I understand the premise behind it. But if this young couple is the same young couple buying houses today, I highly doubt that increased PITI would stop them. As for the effect on the market – it takes their house out of the equation. But it also takes buyers out of the market. I’d be interested to see some actual numbers/data on rate lock, but I suppose it’d be a hard thing to track.
RE: towelie @ 1073 –
i really appreciate this comment. coherent and well thought out. i’ve been feeling the same thing for awhile now and struggle to see a good way to “invest” out of the calamity that’s going to ensue.
Are TheTims lack of updates a contrarian indicator?
Hmmm.
Just bought another rental l. Woot woot!
Cool.. you gonna be woot wooting still when the recession is officially on in 1-2 years and its worth 10-20% less than you bought it for?
RE: Joe @ 1061 –
Your patience will keep you poor Joe. You are in denial, snap out of it!
RE: Any @ 1086 –
Yes, because I’m going to rent it or flip it for a quick profit, I’m still deciding. I bought it for 55% of the after repair value, so I’m in the black any way you slice it.
You think I should flip it then? Is that what you’re saying?
RE: Any @ 1086 –
Come back!!!!
RE: Any @ 1086 –
Come back!!!!
RE: Erik @ 1090 –
well if the home price indeed falls 20%, it’ll be 80% from your estimated after repair value. After the 6-8 percent transaction fee, that’ll be about 74%. Assuming you spend about 15% of the estimated home value, you will be at 59% (carrying costs, taxes, hoa utilities during repair). So effectively, you made 4% for all your efforts…. all theoretical but the numbers don’t look that good from what has been offered.
RE: steven @ 1091 –
Do you own a home?
RE: Erik @ 1088 –
How much work would need to be done to get the unit rentable? If you could rent it next month at breakeven or better my uneducated view is get someone in and keep watching the market. If things go south then great! You’ve still got rental income covering costs and are in no hurry to sell. Maybe if/when materials costs go down you can then decide to renovate and sell assuming you see favorable signs of upswing down the road.
Alternatively, we are starting to enter the slow period in the rental market and you could fix the unit up now, which would give you optionality to either sell next Spring or rent at a higher price. But you have to cover the mortgage and reno costs now with no buffer.
RE: OA @ 1092 –
no not any more. i sold it last september before the condo market crashed in the downtown. your point being ?
RE: steven @ 1091 –
btw i’m hoping that you bought a “decent” wooden shack that won’t require more than 10%-12% in costs for repair (repair costs only). I’m not sure if that was the case with 55% after-repair value estimate; although, you could’ve gotten a really good deal, and that’s the very good scenario.
RE: steven @ 1091 –
Great analysis Steven!
RE: Ohd1122 @ 1093 –
It’s a $60k fix. I’m pretty confident I could flip it and make $100k after taxes, remodel cost, eviction cost, and all that. My eviction went very well last time, hopefully I get lucky again. That’s the big unknown right now that could increase my costs. I have a the best eviction lawyer, and that helps.
You are right, why sell if you can cash flow? Long term capital gains only takes 15% of your gain if you hold an asset a year or more, so I like to hold them for a year or longer. If I want more money, I can sell a more mature asset and let this one ride.
I think as rates go down over the next couple years, housing prices will go up. What is causing the shaky economy is the media. GDP is up and unemployment is down. You wouldn’t know that if you trust the talking heads on CNN, NBC, MSNBC, etc.
RE: steven @ 1095 –
$60k fix
RE: steven @ 1094 –
Show me we’re it shows condo prices crashed in downtown Seattle
By Voight-kampff @ 1084:
Tim stopped posting because he wants prices to come down but they keep going up. He’s not getting what he wants so he stopped posting.
Hey Justme, hey Joe, hey Sfrz, time to pull out the champagne, it’s only the 4th lowest inventory on record. You just need inventory to triple and you may get that crash you’ve been talking about forever that never happened.
:
**** the big take is a presumption that the equity or Loan-To-Value of local housing is solid as a rock and real.
By Erik @ 1097:
This is not necessarily true. Asset (house) prices in Japan dropped despite declining interest rates. Much of EU is mired in negative interest rates today. What is going to keep asset prices up? We may be following Japan’s footsteps in the next decade or two.
RE: Erik @ 1101 –
Eric, are you willing to share the property you purchased? That way we can all be transparent. If it works out, great, if not then be a stand up guy and let us know what went wrong so it’s helpful to everyone.
I’m glad you brought up Capital Gains because that is something rarely brought into the equation when flippers want to talk the talk about their net profit. There is no shame in it if you lose and help people understand what went wrong just as we want to genuinely offer congratulations in speculative successes. There are a lot of flippers that do well on some and lose their shirts on others but still stay in the game. I don’t think you want to be that guy that only talks about what works out but won’t come back if a loss occurs, do you? I had a flipper talk to me face to face about the $125,000 immediate loss they incurred because of a stupid, dumb “rookie” mistake done by a seasoned and experienced flipper. I have all the respect for the flipper because we discussed why it went wrong and I suggested how it could be avoided. But I didn’t feel sorry about it one bit. It happened and it was a learning experience. For many it could take years to recover from that hit.
For perspective, it is important for people to know that I’m keenly aware of flips that are losing their shirts in this market today. The flipping and hard money community circle is large yet very small.
S-Crow
RE: Eastsider @ 1103 –
I could lose my a$$. At some point i’m going to sell real estate to buy the deeds of other real estate and then the risk will be super low. Until then, I’ll have to live in a world of uncertainty.
All of my rentals are still negative cash flow. Although one is only -27 dollars per month. I may pay my debt down on my long term rentals and recast my loans to get these things in a positive cash flow position at some point. For now, I’ll keep buying. My goal is 6 more positive cash flow rentals.
Not long ago I was a struggling aerospace engineer living paycheck to paycheck. I choose the world of risk and uncertainty.
RE: Erik @ 1105 – Just be careful that rent may not keep up with costs going forward. A recession may turn ‘positive’ cashflow properties negative overnight. So set aside some reserves now.
Pretty sizable increase in inventory Thurs-Fri. Chances are good we will see a weekend update?
RE: S-Crow @ 1104 –
S-Crow and Erik
Thank you both for sharing the chaos actuals in investments, and some things in real estate investments get so chaotic, ya walk away or short sell. Its a good question to ask struggling engineers with no pensions too. Erik has less risk aversion than SWE’s flipping experiences too…that’s why I went to a 10 cents on the dollar real estate market compared to Seattle for my foreclosure gambling….but when I had Kansas code inspectors and their courts on my back, I went back to my attorney and communications experience to keep it cooled, thank God it worked, but it cost me many hours on the phone [keeping out of court] and several thousands contractors too, even on a cheap foreclosure property solution. Foreclosures happen to owners all the time, especially landlords in hock. There’s a reason and the solution is to succeed where the old landlord/owner failed, that takes chaos planning.
The “I buy Ugly Houses” folks are now hounding me to sell it to them now that I did the hard work…LOL…they can eat cake, its my daughter’s college money from me and she’s hounded by far worse chaos problems than I had. It was a quick way to money or loss, but I worked hard to make it money.
One thing is quite sure IMO, had I spent the money at the U 0f W for her college expenses, where’s she gonna work? Business degree folks are lined up for old high school level jobs for health care billing, fireman jobs too, etc, etc….sounds like my basement adult with a degree or without would still be living with me to survive. Many current full-time teachers work 2nd jobs at Applebees wiping tables to make their rent/house payments, talk to them, they’ll admit it. Most Seattle area folks are too haughty to admit it….LOL
Great blog S-Crow, from the heart.
RE: dariakus @ 1080 –
Yes
I agree with you…I rented in Bothell for a decade in the 80s and made like $11/hr at Paccar [50% higher than Boeing pay BTW at that time] pay then. The Uber rich were buying up $180,000 condos then and I shuttered, it was not single degreed professional income affordability then and it certainly isn’t single income professional pay now.
Ohhh… and how many struggling degreed professional single incomes in Seattle area thrive in $150K incomes? 1%? Maybe 5%? Where’s the raw data or job opennings filled proof? The MSM? LOL Now I’m rolling on the ground in laughter. Last I heard from a 787 female engineer from Boeing I was dating about a decade ago [today’s gross Boeing pay without pensions hasn’t changed much there either] with 5-10 years experience was $30-35/hr, garbage collector pay….Boeing wanted to outsource 787 engineering jobs to Chili at that time too…LOL…Boeing loves American workers, just like MSFT. I dated an African American systems engineer from Boeing less than a decade ago, she was struggling with a $500K mortgage on an old split level…she was stressed out and on temporary disability pay [50% pay?]. I ended that relationship FAST….she had rich desires and haughty attitude even with Recession Monsters knocking at her door.
By FN Brilliant @ 1107:
Weekly inventory action was pretty normal if you compare to previous Labor Days. Maybe somewhat worse (in terms of inventory growth).
2017:
8/25/17-9/1/17 (Friday to Friday before Labor Day): Inventory dropped roughly 200 units.
9/1/17-9/8/17 (Friday before to Friday after Labor Day): Inventory rose roughly 175 units.
2018:
8/24/18-8/31/18 (Friday to Friday before Labor Day): Inventory dropped roughly 50 units.
8/31/18-9/7/18 (Friday before to Friday after Labor Day): Inventory rose roughly 175 units.
2019:
8/23/19-8/30/19 (Friday to Friday before Labor Day): Inventory dropped roughly 75 units.
8/30/19-9/6/19 (Friday before to Friday after Labor Day): Inventory rose roughly 25 units.
Looking at the 4 weeks prior to the Friday after Labor Day (early August to early September):
2017: Increase of 40 units.
2018: Increase of 325 units.
2019: Decrease of 175 units.
Grab Your Yuban, the Seattle Times Brief from yesterday arrived late in my email: I tailored it for Seattle area real estate livability and prediction planning analysis too:
The Seattle Times
MORNING BRIEF
Friday, September 6, 2019
Elliot Bay Trail reopening
The path to the future: Elliott Bay Trail reopening near Expedia’s new campus
A route section that’s been closed for more than a year will reopen tomorrow. Take a peek at the transformed trail as Expedia gets ready to bring the first wave of workers to its new Seattle campus — a move that could seriously test commuters in the Interbay neighborhood. (Photo: Ken Lambert / The Seattle Times)
NEED TO KNOW
Howard Schultz won’t run for president. The former Starbucks CEO ruled out a bid this morning, writing that not enough voters will back an independent candidate because it “might lead to reelecting a uniquely dangerous incumbent president.”
An American Airlines mechanic is accused of sabotaging a Boeing jet’s navigation equipment shortly before it was scheduled to depart with 150 passengers aboard. The pilot aborted the takeoff when an error message flashed in the cockpit just as the 737-800 was approaching a Miami runway, authorities said.
Demolition of the Alaskan Way Viaduct will scramble commutes in new ways for walk-on ferry riders, bus passengers and drivers. For starters, ferry riders temporarily lose their footbridge today. Here’s what else to expect.
A marine heat wave is looking an awful lot like the killer “Blob” that devastated sea life on the West Coast, scientists say. They hope the expanse of unusually warm water, stretching from about Alaska to California, will go away quickly. But its size and intensity are ominous. Catch up on the last Blob and who came up with that name.
Hurricane Dorian is howling over North Carolina’s Outer Banks this morning after spawning twisters that peeled away roofs and flipped trailers in South Carolina. Virginia is also in harm’s way. In the Bahamas, dazed survivors are returning home to assess the damage. Missing in the aftermath: 23 relatives of acclaimed actor Sidney Poitier.
Enjoy Morning Brief? Then you’ll love full digital access. Help us continue to bring you the news you care about, now. Subscribe to The Seattle Times for just $1 to start.
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SAILGATING SEASON
The “Dawg Boat”
The “Dawg Boat” is ready for the sailgating season as the Huskies open their Pac-12 season at home against Cal. See more sketches of this only-in-Seattle experience. As the boat cruises, the Huskies will be on attack, trying to avenge last year’s stinging loss to the Bears. Meanwhile, former UW quarterback Jake Haener didn’t take long to find a new home. (Seattle Sketcher Gabriel Campanario)
WHAT WE’RE TALKING ABOUT
The King County Sheriff’s Office will apologize to two black teens held at gunpoint and pay $80,000 to settle a federal civil-rights lawsuit. The lawsuit says one of the teens who was stopped outside the White River Amphitheatre “believed he was going to be shot” and wet his pants in fear, then a sergeant realized officers had stopped the wrong car.
A word to the wise: If your car tabs are expiring soon, don’t try to scam the state with your coloring skills. Washington State Patrol troopers are amused after one driver learned that lesson the hard (and expensive) way.
Seattle is donating three plots of city land to nonprofit developers so they can build affordable housing. Sixteen town homes are planned for Judkins Park; the other plots are in Phinney Ridge and Loyal Heights.
Seahawks fans, here are a few reasons to dream big as we head toward Sunday’s season opener against the Bengals:
Jadeveon Clowney! The South Carolina high-school coaches who helped build the Hawks’ newest star are talking about how he became a legend there, and why he’s a great fit here.
Russell Wilson has never been better, columnist Larry Stone writes.
Geno Smith and Jaron Brown are back, having resisted temptations in a brief free agency.
DK Metcalf is raring to go, just two weeks after surgery.
Provided by Eastside Tree Works
Before you top that tree to preserve your beautiful view, consider why most arborists refuse to perform the service, calling it an outdated practice with safety and maintenance concerns. Here’s what they recommend you do instead.
WORTH A READ
Should a city be allowed to ban homeless people from camping in a public place? It’s been a year since a federal court said Boise’s ban was unconstitutional because the city didn’t have enough shelter beds. The ripple effects have spread across the West, and the case could end up at the Supreme Court.
EDITORIAL/OPINION
Washington fails to ensure elementary-school students get enough time at the lunch table. The absence of clear requirements to ensure that young schoolchildren have at least 20 minutes of eating time is unacceptable, The Seattle Times editorial board writes.
TODAY’S WEATHER
Mostly sunny. High 80. Low 60. Sunrise 6:34. Sunset 7:39.
TODAY IN HISTORY
The Washington State Normal School opens in Ellensburg in 1891, specializing in the education of elementary- and junior-high-school teachers. At first, classes are free, as qualified teachers are needed quickly to meet the needs of the state’s expanding population. Also, teacher salaries are so low that it is impractical for students to spend large sums for their training. In 1937, the school changes its name to Central Washington College of Education, and in 1961 to Central Washington State College. In 1977 it becomes Central Washington University.
Great Job Seattle Times….the solutions to homelessness require roofs and toilets not Chaos hypocritical Climate Change rules taxing us out of the city. The Seattle Gringes need to grow hearts. 2025 and ya better be ready to scrap your $50K Infiniti, etc…when the mandatory Uber Rich electric golf carts Monsters invade California. You’ll need another $50K for mandatory Chinese manufactured solar system installed on your roof by then to charge ’em too…but that orange head guy is trying to stop the chaotic Jurassic Monsters from invading, at a theater near you soon.
RE: uwp @ 1110 – That’s not fair. You haven’t given us time to hide.
For a weekend update you must start with the low inventory around Tues. or Wed. Then you compare that with the high on Fri. or Sat. If that seems a little skimpy, just add data points for every hour.
And no comparing to previous weeks, unless we are in the first 8 months of the year.
RE: JustNoise @ 1066 –
That’s what I’m saying. The rent v. buy decision is strictly a financial one, but people attach much emotion to it. People believe buying a house will make everything better, when it doesn’t. For many people, it actually is a ball and chain. You can’t perform higher level activities if you are stuck mowing the lawn, shopping for furniture, or planting flowers. You can excel professionally if you can’t move because your mortgage is underwater or it would just be a pain to move all your accumulated crap. You can’t go out and have fun, travel, and meet new people if you are tied to a big house payment.
The rent v. own equation is way out of whack right now. As I’ve said before, the monthly payment on the house I’m renting would near double if I bought the home. People are assuming homes will appreciate, which they believe will fill the gap, but that’s not a reasonable assumption at these price levels with a recession and many years of very low economic growth around the corner. People say the West Coast is different, but it’s not. The area is still tied to general economic growth around the world. Prices just vacillate more on the West Coast. When prices go down, they go DOWN.
weekend update
SFH inventory in King County (Seattle and suburbs) had the usual post-Labor Day day increase this week. The early peaking and drooping remains similar with 2008, but there are also some similarities with 2007. History may be rhyming, if not exactly repeating. #housingbubble
https://twitter.com/coqumragep279/status/1170377074160197632
RE: Joe @ 1113 –
Or as Ben Jones like to say when some bubble-buyer loses money, “at least it was cheaper than renting” (Yes, SARC).
RE: Justme @ 1114 –
The Haughty Uber Rich and Wannabee Uber Rich
Would argue with the credibility of your URL….LOL…its like making a big deal about using worst case scenario hurricane predictions 200-300 miles from the coast…they’re all inaccurate as Hades but follow the weather channel box prediction style. Hades, the worst case scenario happens too, always error on the side of caution when your family’s future depends on it.
Same with real estate folks….use the chaos theory.
RE: Erik @ 1105 –
>>All of my rentals are still negative cash flow
“At least it was cheaper than renting”
RE: Justme @ 1115 –
Even Billionaire Buffet Goofs a Lot on Stock Predictions
So what. He got billions to play with and overall he’s piling in $CASH$. Same with Orange Head.
RE: Erik @ 1099 –
insignia. view for view, floor plan by floor plan, it deeped at least 20% from what i sold, 25% from top. downtown top tiers are not faring well. and i’m not the only one who has been stating this i believe.
RE: steven @ 1119 –
Interesting. Supply and demand is real and downtown got hit with a bunch of supply I believe. I need to dig up that Seattle Times article again that talked about all the condos coming up.
My west Seattle and shoreline condos have held pretty steady so far. Shoreline is worth 450, and the west Seattle condos are worth 500 or less, so it could be the lower price point that is holding. I sold that one west Seattle(alki) condo in March for 630, which was pretty high I thought.
I’m switching over to houses in Seattle because I don’t see condos appreciating as a they once did. Like my wife said yesterday, Seattle isn’t going to tear down a condo to build a house, but they will tear down a house to put up condos.
RE: steven @ 1119 –
And good timing by the way!!! Got out just in time.
RE: Justme @ 1117 –
Seattle market is one where investors make money on value appreciation. The trick is to have enough reserves to subsidize negative cash flow when housing stops appreciating. I have enough gas in the tank right now, but I keep buying because deals have gotten so much better. I need to sell so I can pay off my condos so it’s just pure profit. That’s how you mitigate risk by forcing positive cash flow.
Been tracking this house in the Cedar River area. It has the best water front view in all of Cedar River.
Just dropped the price by 150K after only 15 days. Last year it would have been bidded up.
Folks, don’t get cocky, believing that the Fed has your back and will save the day again. They can’t defy the natural laws of economics by manipulating interest rates forever. In a healthy economy you have reasonable interest rates and expanding house and stock markets. They have only robbed the savers, pension funds, and future generations to keep up the stock and housing markets. In other words, no wealth has been created in the last few years, but transferred by theft.
https://www.redfin.com/WA/Renton/16841-SE-Jones-Rd-98058/home/423400
RE: DavidE @ 1123 – half of listing price is still a ripoff.
RE: DavidE @ 1123 –
Nice house. At the end of the day, it’s still a house in Renton and you can’t change that.
RE: JustNoise @ 1081 – You obviously don’t have kids – the little ones only want mommy ;)
RE: richard @ 1025 – All I did was ask whether if you had kids/family. I want to understand what motivates you and what also empowers you to walk away from a transaction. A lot of times families feel that they can’t walk away from a home purchase because they “have to buy” (which I don’t necessarily agree with).
If it makes you feel better, I am a first time home buyer, never owned a home. I was born and raised here in Seattle and moved away for 12 years and then came back in 2016, returning to a raging housing market. I’ve waited over three years patiently for some opportunity to buy. So no I am not that type of mean person who enjoys other people’s sufferings. I am suffering together with you.
RE: TheBenBernank @ 1126 –
Buy a condo in Seattle kid. You gotta be in the game to score.
By Erik @ 1124:
True, and I am glad that people are looking at homes now as a place to live (once again). This insanity had to stop at some point, and we are clearly there. There are very few greater fools left, and most of the ones left are not credit worthy (hence issues with pending sales).
I came back from Vancouver (BC) two weeks ago, and it was just as bad. It was unbelievable how many For Sale signs there were in some of the premier locations with gorgeous views. At first I thought they were garage sale signs since there were so many of them. You had to ask yourself: what happened to all those stories about super rich Chinese buyers?
Two weeks of patience on the Cedar River house has saved potential buyers 150K! Think about the shift in psychology in just one year. The cracks in the dam are getting wider and the water is gushing through. The Fed is trying to plug the holes with all the fingers that they have left.
RE: Erik @ 1127 –
As a wise man once said, sometimes the best way to win a game is by not playing at all.
The MAX 8 Fiasco With Boeing
The fun goes on and on with no end in sight now?
Layoffs at Boeing Renton? The EU Airbus consortium safety agency controls Boeing FAA certification worldwide now?
The Seattle Times
TOP OF THE TIMES
Saturday, September 7, 2019
737 MAX jets in p arking
Boeing’s fix to 737 MAX isn’t enough, Europe’s aviation-safety agency says
As MAX jets jam a section of Boeing Field, awaiting a return to the skies, the European Union Aviation Safety Agency laid out demands that appear more stringent than what the FAA wants. If the FAA and Europe don’t reach agreement on when and how to clear the jet to fly, an unprecedented divergence in worldwide regulation would complicate the schedules of many airlines. Read more.
RE: softwarengineer @ 1129 –
How many people will fly in a MAX once it gets approved? I won’t, and I’m tracking the airlines that buy them so I don’t accidentally wind up on one.
RE: Justme @ 1114 –
Thanks for posting that, been waiting for that chart of yours. Inventory going down is puzzling to me. I feel like the economic climate has only gotten worse since July. A few data points like US manufacturing numbers getting worse, trade war escalating, expensive loss-making tech stocks (e.g. slack) way off. Also the Zillow home price forecast has slid to -3.5% over the next year, down from -1.5% when I checked it a few months ago.
The inventory slide since July is because either A) homeowners are seeing the pricing get incrementally worse, and are pulling their listings/refusing to list until they can catch the next up cycle in a few years, or B) the lower rates spur demand and buyers are soaking up the inventory, economic climate be damned.
Anyone have any data points that would support either A or B more?
By Armk @ 1131:
Zillow was forecasting +8% over the next year in Spring of 2018. So maybe it’s a contrary indicator!
By DavidE @ 1123:
Just massively mis-priced. They should drop it to 1.2 (maybe lower).
So far off, that I doubt it would have been bid up last year at that original list price of 1.5 million. They tried to price it almost double (+80%) the sale in 2015 with no noticeable upgrades other than paint. Even in 2018 houses weren’t going that high, more like 50% over 2015 pricing. And houses over a million have grown slower than the <750k market.
I just checked the Zillow page for the listing. The Zestimate was 875k in June before it was listed, then jumped to 1.5 million. Nice!
RE: TheBenBernank @ 1126 – i rented a house because i have a family. i moved in bellevue in 2016. the housing market going too slow and there is no silverlining in sight. i dont want to buy because i.dont want to be enslaved by 600-700k debt. iam not young anymore and i cant afford a big financial mistake from this point on. all i can do is wish xi jinping can do a good job on curbing money outflow and low interest rate not so effective in reflating bubble . a recession will be a double sword but seems to be the quickest way to bring down the price.
RE: Erik @ 1127 – I may be older than you, kid ;) Judging by your baby’s photo (cute, by the way), I may be a year or two older than yourself. Our daughter is probably a year or so older than your baby. I lived in several different cities both pursuing career aspirations, grad school, and other spiritual/personal endeavors (going to Bible college, and then sending my wife to Bible college after we got married) so it never made sense for us to buy until we came back to Seattle and settled down and had a kid. Bad timing though ;(
We are very close to pulling the trigger. I think if we can negotiate/bully our way to a reasonable value or just get one single desperate seller to accept a low(er) ball offer, we will just go ahead and do it.
We have zero debt, and I am trying to pull strings to afford a 15 year fixed. I don’t care how low interest rates are – I want to purchase a home and get out of debt as fast as possible.
RE: richard @ 1133 – I see. Sounds like you are all in for the Bellevue school district. I think your kids will do great in many other school districts, but if you have to have the Bellevue school district… then it’s tough. I get it.
Have you considered the Mill Creek / Northshore school district too?
I am probably only a few years younger than you.
Also, judging by the way you write I gather that you are either Chinese or some sort of East Asian.
RE: uwp @ 1132 – That’s just pure greed. That is literally someone asking a person to show up at their doorstep with a big bag full of money. Ridiculous.
How about we look up the owners of that home on the King County Assessor’s office and publicly shame them? I feel like public shaming is not done often enough in the US…. Just kidding. Sort of.
RE: Erik @ 1120 – What neighborhoods are you looking at? Just curious where you think the current value / future appreciation is.
By uwp @ 1132:
Which goes to show you that your house is only worth what someone else is willing/able to pay for it, as many marked-to-fantasy home owners will find out soon (landlords to some degree also).
My Glenbrook Neighborhood is Like My 140 Unit Under the Seattle Bubble Microscope
Lots of young adults still living with mom and dad at home. The few babies I see have no dads, if the grandparents aren’t rich, I see the moms [and sometimes the kids with them] holding homeless beggar signs…
The lucky devil single moms have grandparents to support them, this will slow listings down too I imagine. Good gosh, imagine being the single dad trying to live/rent on 1/2 net pay after child support check garnishments…grim futures.
They strut by with their baby strollers past my window office; but I never see dad. This happenned in my generation too, but at least the rent was low enough to get a running $200 old car and a $150/mo rent shack…and an occasional bag of weed or cheap bottle wine….LOL
Time to Pour Yourself a Mug of Yuban and Read the Tailored Brief
The Seattle Times
MORNING BRIEF
Monday, September 9, 2019
Amazon workers at farmers market
Amazon starts new hiring push as local workforce tops 53,500
Amazon today is rolling out a new national hiring push that includes filling some 10,000 openings in the Seattle area by 2020. The company has already topped Microsoft’s local workforce with more than 53,500 employees here (some of whom are strolling the South Lake Union Farmers Market, above). Amazon paid its local employees $9 billion last year, helping fuel an “amazing, historic period of job growth.” Lenders are making it easier than ever for them to buy homes in Seattle. (Photo: Steve Ringman / The Seattle Times)
NEED TO KNOW
Times Watchdog: At Washington state’s private psychiatric hospitals, patients and staffers are hurt far more often than the facilities report to regulators. A Seattle Times investigation found unreported suicide attempts, concussions, broken bones and even patient deaths. Regulators haven’t penalized a hospital in more than a decade, despite repeated violations. Read Part 2 of “Public Crisis, Private Toll.”
Some teachers have quit to protest what they consider anti-gay policy at a Christian school in Shoreline. Former faculty members describe the growing tensions at King’s High School, where an administrative mandate and anti-gay language from the new leader of King’s parent organization brought the matter to a boiling point.
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RIDE-SHARE DILEMMA
How often do you have to stop behind an Uber or Lyft that’s dropping off passengers in the street? Seattle has expanded loading zones like this one on Boren Avenue North to ease the choke points. While a UW study found benefits, some have their doubts about whether the city should be encouraging ride-share use. (Photo: Steve Ringman / The Seattle Times)
WHAT WE’RE TALKING ABOUT
BOOM! A Boeing 777X door exploding outward in a high-pressure stress test punctuated a challenging time for the company. Meanwhile, Boeing’s former chief technical pilot on the 737 MAX project has refused to provide documents sought by federal prosecutors investigating two fatal crashes, according to a person familiar with the matter.
Wait, natural gas is now evil? The Seattle City Council will weigh banning it in new buildings to fight climate change. But columnist Danny Westneat writes that it doesn’t make sense for one layer of government to ban something that other layers of government are gushing green praise about — and even paying folks to adopt.
The vast majority of Kirkland city workers don’t live in Kirkland, where one-bedroom apartments lease for around $2,000. Some commute from as far as Marysville. The city is trying to change that by setting aside units in two downtown buildings, a model that could be broadened if it succeeds.
Seattle’s generational gaps are coming into play as we head toward the November election. Do you talk local politics with your baby-boomer parents or millennial children? We’d like to hear from intergenerational pairs of relatives, co-workers or acquaintances who vote in Seattle.
Provided by UW Foster School of Business
Effective teamwork makes companies more successful, regardless of the job or industry. But it can be easier said than built. Whether you’re entry-level or the department head, these easy-to-implement strategies are worth a try.
WORTH A READ
After one of the weirdest nights in Husky Stadium history, things can only get better, right? First came the bizarre lightning delay that gave fans a story to tell, then the wild 20-19 loss to Cal. Three big questions linger as we look at where the Huskies go from here. And UW is behind WSU in the latest poll, after the Cougs’ resounding win over Northern Colorado.
The clock is ticking in Britain, and nerves are fraying. Amid signs that patience with the political circus over Brexit is running out, Prime Minister Boris Johnson seems to have four main options, one of which would land him behind bars. He’s planning to suspend Parliament today so it can’t force his hand. Is that even legal?
Tantrums at 30,000 feet: Adults can be the worst-behaved people on planes, and they’re not so easy to appease with a lollipop. If you’re seated next to a passenger behaving badly, know how to handle it.
Maybe you’ve already driven Washington’s gorgeous Cascade Loop. But did you know Canada has its own version just north of the border, with glorious scenery, pretty hikes and wineries all around? Welcome to Route 3.
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If you haven’t job-hunted recently, you might not realize that human resources departments are no longer always human. AI does more than scan resumes for keywords. Here’s what to do when your job interview is with a robot.
EDITORIAL/OPINION
Widespread vaccination against measles offers critical protection. If this year’s figures do not show significant improvement in compliance and rates of vaccination, the Seattle Times editorial board writes, state lawmakers should act to safeguard public health, particularly in Washington’s schools.
TODAY’S WEATHER
Showers. High 66. Low 57. Sunrise 6:38. Sunset 7:33.
TODAY IN HISTORY
Seattle City Light in 1905 begins supplying individual customers with electricity, with the first customer the Reverend J.M. Wilson, pastor of Westminster Presbyterian Church on First Hill. Before this, electric utilities had focused on providing power for streetcars, street lighting and industrial users. As Seattle residents need more electrical service, the city proposes bond issues for adding capacity at the Cedar Falls power plant. (Compiled from HistoryLink.org)
Chaos salary numbers from AMZ…LOL…$170K each employee the article alleges [$9B divided by 53500]….what a joke. Did they include the delivery trucks and “job replacement robots” into the $20/hr average Seattle per capita pay? Cooked books and BAD JOURNALISM Seattle Times…you should give this story to MAD Magazine to print instead? And if you allege salary figures you “pick out of the air”, admit it and otherwise show us the tax/personnel/salary records in writing AMZ is hiding…LOL…believe everything they tell you. You’re just an Orange Haired Guy Wannabee…
Yes Seattle Times, the disabled homes I audit are full of fraud. They starve ’em to death with frozen dinners and pop [jail food] and want a restraining order against you if you bring a bathroom scale to monitor their customers’ weight. They don’t have weight scales at the homes either.
Its not just Uber, the new bizarre rule is to park your ugly cross over in front of the store door and block traffic. They wave ya by like they own the road. It must be the $30K they forked out for the piece of junk they drive…LOL
Ask SWE about air travel, he’s a muscular man at 210 lbs and 6′ tall…last time I rode cramped coach seat my arms were bruised.
The mountain scenery today is fog, 50 degrees and rain, not beautiful at all. Today is hermit weather.
They push shots like opioids…there’s toxic heavy elements in those health care shots too. I see some are free now…LOL…its a population control conspiracy?
Tell us truth, you’re pushing for more $50K solar systems we pay to put on our Seattle area roofs from China and you want our gas cars off the road. Those solar systems work horribly in Seattle’s cloudy weather, so we build more coal plants too? Ask Denmark, they increased their grid capacity for electric cars with coal to INCREASE THE CARBON FOOTPRINT too…LOL…our IQs went down 40 points since the mid 70s BTW. Our technology peaked in the 70s too IMO, since then its gone down the toilet.
By DavidE @ 1123:
This one in Issaquah seems like a better deal, for just under $1 million: https://www.redfin.com/WA/Issaquah/23321-SE-158th-St-98027/home/423788
RE: DavidE @ 1123 –
Wouldn’t that house flood during heavy rains? Or has Jones Rd. stopped flooding after big storms? If my memory serves me right it constantly was flooded back in the day.
RE: Brianna @ 1155 –
Better, but still not good. You lose less money as a buyer, that’s all.
RE: Joe @ 1124 –
The rent vs. buy decision is strictly a financial one for you. And I can totally understand the sentiment. But the simple fact is that it’s not strictly financial for everyone. And frankly, if more people looked at houses as *homes* (some emotional investment) vs. assets (strictly financial), perhaps we wouldn’t be trapped in these crazy housing cycles. Many people caught up in the frenzy and bidding wars were thinking financially. “This house will be worth more in a couple years and I can sell it for a large profit.”
Personally, when I do buy a house, there will be financial and emotional aspects to the decision. I have children. It’s only natural for me to think to myself “Will my family be happy here for 10-20 years? Is this where I want my children to grow up?” These aren’t simple financial questions – they’re emotional ones.
RE: FN Brilliant @ 1123 –
Lol. So much snark.
RE: TheBenBernank @ 1137 –
Again, very presumptuous. I do have children. Funny thing about kids – they learn what you teach them. If you teach them that mama is the only one that cares for and comforts them, they’ll only want mama. My children are also cared for and comforted by daddy. Moreover, my salary is double my husband’s, so if one of us were to stay home, it would make financial sense if it were my husband. Thanks for dropping by the 21st century.
RE: JustNoise @ 1160 – Of course children love their dads and vice versa. I said that tongue in cheek and obviously you got unnecessarily offended. It’s not always about the money. And no matter how “progressive” and “equal” the current fad ideology may get, you can’t fight biology.
Ultimately in the end you make your own life trade offs on how you spend your time and money, which are the same thing actually.
RE: TheBenBernank @ 1161 –
Sure, women wanting a career *and* a family is a “fad ideology”. And obviously, I’ll never be “equal” to my husband, what with this stupid uterus giving me the hysteria and all.
You are the worst kind of misogynist, because you don’t realize you are one. I hope Tim does find a way to delete your comments.