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The NWMLS published their August stats yesterday, so let’s take a look at how the month shook out for the housing market.
As we mentioned in yesterday’s preview post, the biggest story is a sudden, renewed shortage of inventory.
Before we get into our detailed monthly stats, here’s a quick look at their press release.
Home Buyers Seeking Affordability Are Expanding Search Outside Greater Seattle Job Centers
Depleted inventory continues to frustrate would-be buyers in Western Washington. Many of these potential homeowners are expanding their search beyond the major job centers in King County, according to market watchers who commented on the latest statistics from Northwest Multiple Listing Service.
…
“While August is always a slower time for listings and sales, what is really surprising this year is the decrease in new listings taken, while pending sales increased,” observed Mike Grady, president and COO of Coldwell Banker Bain.
…
Multiple offers are still commonplace with many buyers walking away disappointed, according to Wilson. “Traffic is strong at open houses and our average market time is still very low for correctly priced homes,” he added.“The August numbers offered a few interesting nuggets,” stated OB Jacobi, president of Windermere Real Estate. “The Seattle area housing market is still coming off the ‘sugar high’ that we saw last summer, but homes sales and prices are stabilizing, which is reassuring to both buyers and sellers.”
Quick note: According to data from Redfin, multiple offers are far from “commonplace” now. In August fewer than 10 percent of offers in the Seattle area faced competition. (Disclosure: Tim works for Redfin.)
However, new listings are indeed way down. Let’s get into the data to quantify the drop.
NWMLS monthly reports include an undisclosed and varying number of
sales from previous months in their pending and closed sales statistics.
Here’s your King County SFH summary, with the arrows to show whether the year-over-year direction of each indicator is favorable or unfavorable news for buyers and sellers (green = favorable, red = unfavorable):
| August 2019 | Number | MOM | YOY | Buyers | Sellers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Active Listings | 4,194 | -4.7% | -10.1% |  |
 |
| Closed Sales | 2,531 | -3.9% | +6.1% | |
|
| SAAS (?) | 1.11 | -4.8% | -22.9% | |
|
| Pending Sales | 2,623 | -10.1% | +7.9% | |
|
| Months of Supply | 1.66 | -0.7% | -15.3% | |
|
| Median Price* | $670,000 | -1.5% | +0.1% | |
|
Here’s the graph of inventory with each year overlaid on the same chart.
Inventory fell five percent from July to August. During the same period a year ago, inventory rose 12 percent. The 10 percent year-over-year drop in inventory is the biggest decline we’ve seen since January 2018.
Here’s the chart of new listings:
New listings were down 10 percent from July to August, and were down 18 percent from a year ago. Only 2011 and 2012 saw fewer new listings in August than we had in 2019.
Here’s your closed sales yearly comparison chart:
Closed sales fell four percent between July and August, and were up six percent from last year. Closed sales have been in a fairly tight range between about 2,400 and 2,800 in August every year since 2013, and this year fell right in the middle of that range at 2,531.
Pending sales fell 10 percent month-over-month but were up eight percent year-over-year.
Here’s the supply/demand YOY graph. “Demand” in this chart is represented by closed sales, which have had a consistent definition throughout the decade (unlike pending sales from NWMLS).
The good news for buyers with respect to housing supply was short-lived. Supply is back in the red.
Here’s the median home price YOY change graph:
Home prices dipped a bit last month, but not by as much as they did this time last year, so we ended up back in the black year-over-year, just barely.
And lastly, here is the chart comparing King County SFH prices each month for every year back to 1994 (not adjusted for inflation).
August 2019: $670,000
August 2018: $669,000
July 2007: $481,000 (previous cycle high)
Here’s the article about these numbers from the Seattle Times: The market’s chilled out, but Seattle home prices still too hot for many first-time buyers
Will they raise the rent?
Now I can’t tour germy homes,
Uncertainty sucks
A permabear renting dilemma haiku
Anecdotal info here, but the couples in our friends group who are home shopping talked more this week about the intense competition than refusing to buy because of the virus.
Hopefully anyone seriously home shopping doesn’t have their downpayment sitting in the stock market. What a crazy couple of weeks! I don’t have the guts to go all-in here, but am starting to put together a shopping list of beaten down companies.
If the we do end up with a global pandemic then it will be great to see the perma-bears say they were right all along about high house prices.
RE: uwp @ 2749 –
When I was in the stock biz we used to “dollar average” at a time like this. Take the full amount you want to invest and divide it into weekly or monthly portions and dollar average in. We always did this with large amounts of fresh cash. Just the old lady in the rocking chair remembering how we “used to”. :)
When it got high we sold off some of the profits and hoarded cash by dollar averaging out. Then we waited for this and dollar averaged back in. The cash% changed. When it was a good time to buy we went down to 1% to 3% cash. When we pulled profits as it rose we increased the cash position to up to 20% during the rise to peak.
Mongers piping up
now that stock market is closed
sweat drips, pump harder
-a black swan bubble haiku
We need soothing , now!
soothing flapping of the beak
where is douchefalcon?
-a black swan bubble haiku
By Ardell DellaLoggia @ 2750:
Yupp, I love this method. Much easier to do than trying to guess/time the bottom and then buy.
Continuing my Friday tally of Active listings in King County. It will be important to track these week to week again so we can see any changes due to the virus protocols. If anything it seemed like more sellers today than I expected. A lot more. But the overall numbers are not showing much in the breakdown except in a couple of areas. I am checking those now. You can check them on Redfin or any brokerage site, but not Zillow.
I am pulling the 3/6 numbers as I’m typing. Seemed to me there were a lot more new listings in the last 2 days than I have seen in awhile, so I need to test my perception. I might as well do it here since I’m doing it for myself anyway.
The condo number is interesting. More of them but fewer are townhomes.
Total of all was 2,388 on 12/31
1/7 it is 2,251
1/18 is 2,224
1/24 is 2,193
1/31 is 2125
3/6 is 2,339
Condos were 632 on 12/31
1/7 they are 576
1/18 is 579
1/24 is 575 (102 of these are townhouses)
1/31 is 551 (97 of these are townhouses)
3/6 is 594 (82 of these are townhouses)
Residential was 1,756 on 12/31
1/7 is 1,675
1/18 is 1,645
1/24 is 1,618 (195 of these are townhouses)
1/31 is 1,574 (189 of these are townhouses)
3/6 is 1,746 (194 of these are townhomes)
Condo
0 bedrooms 27… 22… 3/6 = 34
1 bedroom 184 … 150… 3/6 = 166
2 bedroom 294 … 261 …3/6 = 271
3 bedroom 92 … 87 … 3/6 = 95
4 bedroom 35 … 31 …3/6 = 29
Residential
0 bedroom 27 … 24 … 3/6 = 23
1 bedroom 17 …18 … 18 (note to Deerhawke. In answer to a previous question something like this if the same houses over and over again could in fact be taken from the total, per your suggestion)
2 bedroom 209 … 190 … 3/6 = 181
3 bedroom 503 … 420 … 3/6 = 510
4 bedroom 1,000 … 922… 3/6 = 1,018
(Required Disclosure: Stats in this comment are hand calculated in Real Time by ARDELL and not compiled, verified or published by The Northwest Multiple Listing Service.)
RE: OA @ 2753 –
The only time I moved higher than 20% cash to 30% – 40% cash was the Wednesday before Black Monday in 1987. I did a rebalance and was intending to move some to bonds. I never did a “total return concept” portfolio, as the income beneficiaries were not the same people as the remainder interest. Nor did I ever do high risk stocks, penny stocks or junk bonds and the like. Trust and Investment is conservative. So those numbers are not for “day traders”.
By Jeff @ 2743:
I don’t track market fluctuations that much. I’m way up since Trump was elected though.
I’m still down in Florida where I am just as worried about herpes carrying monkeys that are roaming the state as I am about Coronavirus. Much easier to convince someone I caught the flu than I didn’t kiss a monkey or you.
Great Blogs All, Hey like those poems Notme! Evaluations are normally contradictory and that’s normal too. Let’s update our outlooks with Saturday’s brief Brief and drink plenty of liquids for immune response, aka, MJB…LOL
“…Cut through the misinformation with this visual guide to the new coronavirus, how it spreads, how COVID-19 affects the body, and how to protect yourself and others. Read more…”
SWE’s Take: Regarding the fuzzy math on counting all the total # of infected Coronavirus victims [1000s or 10,000s? to date]….there’s no way to do it without coronavirus test kits, ask the co-founder of Apple who caught the flu, but could not get a coronavirus test from his doctor [only 5 states had them weeks ago BTW]. The reason IMO is the old problem we’ve had with all colds and flu throughout history; the first symptoms may just be “feeling tired” or a slight sore throat…IOWs, you run free unknowingly and you’re highly infectious with coronavirus [or colds too] than before the sneezing and coughs [immune response kicks in] ever come around. I hear some folks never get the sneezes or coughs either. Its always been this way during flu season. Another “rattle snake in the chicken coup” on mathematical counts for diagnosis of coronavirus spread/severity. Do all folks that die from pneumonia get the coronavirus test? This mess is not political, its medical fact and needs mathematical answers with valid testing, not wild guesses.
“…”It’s not rude to get up and move if you need to,” transit officials said. Read more….”
SWE’s take: Just cleaning everything with disinfectants won’t stop spread either [it quickly gets recontaminated anyway in public areas]. Be careful with toxic cleaners where ya eat too…or you’ll get toxins on food if it touches the counters after spraying. Breathing cleaner fumes indoors is bad for you too…LOL
“…Home sales are hopping, even a quarter-mile from the nursing home at the center of the coronavirus outbreak. Prices are rising, inventory is tight, and an emergency interest-rate cut could throw fuel on this fiery market. See what’s happening around you in our area-by-area look. Read more…”
SWE’s take: When you see a realtor wearing a face mask, you may want to try another open house…LOL
“…Shoplifters are getting far more brazen in Seattle. As losses pile up, retailers are stepping up security, including armed guards. The scope of the problem is tough to grasp, because some stores find it easier to write off the thefts than to file a police report. But one thing is clear: The scale of the thefts can be staggering. Read more…”
SWE’s Take: IMO, with work hours likely curtailed due to coronavirus fears and less $CASH$ coming in as a result, this inner city Detroit Seattle crime will get worse too. Like I said, last Thursday the Tukwila WINCO parking lot with full to the brim at 2PM on a Thursday….so there’s lots more lately not commuting to work now.
Good News: I haven’t had the flu in decades and I haven’t had a flu shot in decades either….LOL….take 1000 mg of vitamin C everyday…..it cures dental gum infection problems too.
More Raw Data on Accuracy of Coronavirus Counts
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/how-many-americans-have-been-tested-coronavirus/607597/?preview=3-4FLneYp3QF4ooMLWUN_KtUiR8
2000 Americans tested for coronavirus out or 300,000,000 Americans…that’s .00066% of us, hardly a wild guess testing base at all…a joke IOWs.
By Eastsider @ 2711:
Basically what hysteria looks like. Lolz government officials.
It is the WUHAN-VIRUS not the coronavirus.
Calling it Corona is to marginalize people of color who make beer. Also cultural appropriation.
Wuhan-Virus Meter:
Wait time at Roger Rabbit’s Car Toon Spin = 50 Minutes (Disneyland, CA)
Wuhan worries = 0
Little kids feeling fine.
Haiku:
“Seattle man with pretend vaginas
Shrieking like scared girls.”
Just got a taste drop notice. 30 year 2.875% with a 3.01 APR
A couple resale houses I was watching went pending in less than a week;
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/119-NW-40th-St-Seattle-WA-98107/62944049_zpid/
And a warbox at 4001 2nd ave nw that was listed at 1075000. A bit of a shock there.
So. There have been 26 deaths of Life Care Center Kirkland residents since 2/19. The clear majority of U.S. deaths from there.
RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 2764 –
2 weeks ago, Italy had 9 cases.
Today, it reported over 5,800.
https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1236473451386474496?s=19
US will follow this trend.
Italy just closed Milan, Venice and much of N Italy.
US needs to take similar measures… but probably will not.
RE: Blake @ 2765 –
I did hear. I have cousins there. They are beyond distraught.
RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 2766 –
Alright, Grab Your MJB Mug and read the brief Brief
“…Plan your week
Coronavirus in the Seattle area: what’s safe, what’s not — and how to protect yourself and others…”
SWE’s take: Ignore the fear and get out and spend money, buy homes now with lower traffic. Worrying about coronavirus decreases your immune response to it from stress? Hey, with the death count likely omitting all pneumonia deaths [including from just colds]; because almost no one can get coronavirus tested [including Apple’s co-founder who got the flu and asked for the coronavirus test, but it was not available] further makes the math fuzzy. Doctors require valid statistics, and checking by math majors is mandatory. Atlantic tells us only 2000 tested for coronavirus in America to date. That’s .00066% of us…about zero IOWs. Get a $200 plane ticket to Italy and a $150 RT aircraft ticket, with $30/nt hotels….LOL??? If you’re out in public during your Italy dream vacation, avoid touching your face before washing your hands, like all normal flu seasons. Tapping your elbows is not a hand shake and not very friendly either.
Good News: My weekday daytime trips to the $CASH$ machine for deposits are faster now with empty “ghost town” streets lately…LOL….the only crowds on normal work hours I saw recently were more folks ordered to staying “quarantined” at home and going shopping for staples at WINCO anyway…..spreading possible flu germs??? LOL
RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 2764 –
The Nursing Homes Aren’t to Blame Ardelle
We can’t begin to fund ’em for like $1200/mo Social Security per patient in Seattle….for severely disabled the inadequate adult disabled home costs of like $3000/mo won’t begin to cut it either. I work with them and know the costs. Did you know the union SEIU care givers need like $15-20/hr with “Group Health type” paid healthcare, it ain’t chump change and how can the nursing homes pay those rates? They can’t.
Put 100% of the coronavirus infection blame on China.
We have come full circle on the Coronavirus. Government + Private Funding + Isolating the main source, Life Care Center and letting that place run its course without affecting others. Lots of extra people at Life Care taking care of that mess. Now THIS! Gates providing funding for 400 tests a day.
If you are also doing everything that YOU can do to kill your own germs, we have come full circle.
https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/health/gates-funded-program-will-soon-offer-home-testing-kits-for-new-coronavirus/?utm_source=marketingcloud&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=TSA_030820150232%20Gates-funded%20program%20will%20offer%20coronavirus%20home-testing%20kits_3_8_2020&utm_term=Registered%20User&fbclid=IwAR025YqqyKQP6ooEmVxOmY48djX6JLYQQ_R8vI79p_qUoPNGnlIV8pg-lTA
https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/health/gov-inslee-says-mandatory-measures-under-consideration-to-combat-coronavirus-in-washington/
Will it affect the spring selling season?
Italy just locked down 1/4 of its population.
Coronavirus!!!!!!!!
RE: Eastsider @ 2770 –
Costco in Kirkland was empty today but that could just be because people bought enough stuff to self quarantine. I’m self-quarantining until the 14th and told me clients to hold up for a bit.
I have a couple of listings I would see if they don’t get offers on review date. That’s how we’ll know if the market has slowed, but since we are asked to stay home for 14 days, that could be temporary and not reflect the season.
There were 155 Open Houses today in Kirkland/Hunan 2.0 so the agents and owners of the houses seem to be OK. Let’s see what is still around on Thursday that should have reviewed offers on Tuesday.
RE: Eastsider @ 2770 –
Costco in Kirkland was empty today but that could just be because people bought enough stuff to self quarantine. I’m self-quarantining until the 14th and told my clients to hold up for a bit.
I have a couple of listings I would see if they don’t get offers on review date. That’s how we’ll know if the market has slowed, but since we are asked to stay home for 14 days, that could be temporary and not reflect the season.
There were 155 Open Houses today in Kirkland/Hunan 2.0 so the agents and owners of the houses seem to be OK. Let’s see what is still around on Thursday that should have reviewed offers on Tuesday.
I do expect more than the usual canceled while Pending as some who went into contract are jittery.
As your 401k (or other) contributions go in at these lower levels just gulp your Yuban and smile. :)
By Eastsider @ 2744:
I thought Friday’s $42 was a crash. It now trades at $32! (YTD -47%)
Under $2 gas coming up?
RE: Eastsider @ 2775 –
Cheap oil means the economy’s going to boom since gas will be cheap right? Dave told me the “Wuhan-Virus Meter” says no worries.
RE: Jeff @ 2776 – The DOW future currently points to -1000 at open tomorrow. Economy (or the stock market) is tanking.
RE: Eastsider @ 2777 –
Uh oh, Dave’s stock portfolio is not liking the Wuhan-Virus Meter at the moment.
RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 2773 –
If I am a seller, I will sell NOW.
If I am a buyer, I will hold off.
Too many uncertainties.
Dr. Anthony Fauci, the head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, suggested possibility of quarantines of infected US regions today.
US 10 year at .48%! Things are getting exciting!!
Asian markets tanking.
RE: justsomedude12 @ 2780 – Trading in S&P 500 futures was apparently halted by circuit breaker.
By Eastsider @ 2775:
I’m in FL now and it is already $2.11.
I wish I had about another $100k to invest in stocks this week. Wait a minute….let me check on that.
The wait time at DWorld for 7 Dwarfs Mine Train was at least 105 minutes today. I could see the cruise ships waiting to leave the port and there were plenty of people out cruising the water front on a 72 degree all-sun day.
I even watched the Friday night Spacex launch which was amazing with such a clear night sky and return to land.
By David @ 2783:
It won’t be long before it goes under $2, maybe $1.50? Crude oil is now trading at $27, down 33%.
RE: David @ 2783 –
I hope you’re able to tank another $100k into the market next week. It will help slightly lower my short entry’s which have been killing it over the last couple weeks. I do feel a little guilty stealing cash from Trumpazeez like yourself Dave . . . but not too guilty, since you seem to be such a blowhard. If you’ve been following the virus progress since mid-January as many of us have, non of this is surprising, despite your clever Wuhan Meter. I’m looking forward to tracking those Disney lines along with you over the next few weeks.
sure wish i had moved more of my assets from VTSAX to VMMXX a week ago. only moved about 20% of it. might still consider moving more. i expect DOW to be at 10000 before things go back up. most americans aren’t even aware of the severity of this virus due to the administration’s downplaying of it. yes, only a small % will die, but when everything shuts down and riots start, that’s when it all goes haywire. no $$$ will cause people to go back to work to restore the economic engine.
By kenmorem @ 2786:
So you admit the virus isn’t that bad. What’s bad, as described by you, is the medicine. Which is the point of trying to minimize panic. The virus hasn’t grown exponentially globally as many predicted, far from it. In fact virus growth is rather tepid and the growth rate is in decline.
The virus will be forgotten very soon as the world tries to avoid global depression as oil collapsed.
The bears awake from their winter slumber,
Greedy landlords start to think,
Shall I sell now or hold on forever,
Seattle is different the bulls proclaim,
‘til the sleepless nights induce their shame.
Dow dropped 1800 points this morning.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks/wall-street-trade-halted-as-sp-hits-down-limit-idUSKBN20W1IF
What a great way to start my Monday. With Corona still wanting to hang out, Lake Washington School District still not shutting classes down (I hear the superintendent quit this past weekend) and a possibility of recession in the horizon.
And all the while, people are still buying homes in Puget Sound.
It’s blowing my mind that all of this is happening at once.
@QA Observer:
Like george clooney hanging on the boom in Perfect Storm
time to think, but not very warm
will the whole boat go down, or the pumps just frown
and say this ain’t the end my beautiful friend
from the course we find, the path we’re sent
it will make a dent, but we still get the rent
I wouldn’t want to buy a 2 million dollar house in Seattle right about now. With oil at 20-30 dollars a barrel, there’s massive deflationary pressure in the horizon regardless of interest rates.
Oil declining is going to push the economy up – not down. Cheap fossil fuel is a huge blessing.
Wuhan-virus Meter:
Dworld:
7-Dwarfs Mine Train = 105 Minutes
Haunted Mansion = 105 Minutes
All is well.
Coronavirus Misinformation from the brief Brief, enjoy your MJB:
“…Washington should be among the best places anywhere to experience the first outbreak of a dangerous new virus that doesn’t yet have a specific treatment. But so far, there are mixed results of this governance and leadership test, writes The Seattle Times editorial board. ..”
SWE’s Take: The medical establishment has brainwashed us all into believing the old flu vaccine prevents yearly new strain flu anyway…we need testing that works now for the new yearly flu strains, not more useless medical establishment lies to make $CASH$ off of us.
Good News: Mercury isn’t in all the useless flu shots.
RE: David @ 2793 –
Tickets:
$175/day waiting forever inline.
RE: David @ 2792 –
Remember the 2015 earnings recession? That was caused by low oil prices tanking the shale producers which represent a huge part of our economy these days. It was also before Trump, so we can rule that red herring out too. This time’s looking way worse. I know it’s counter intuitive to simple minded folks as yourself Dave, but that’s just the way our world works these days. Thanks for thinking of the Disney wait time stats. I look forward to seeing these going forward and am now tracking them myself.
https://abc7ny.com/health/13-confirmed-nyc-coronavirus-cases-more-than-100-statewide/5989875/
Where is Inslee on closing Lake Washington and other school districts in the epicenter of the country?
By Beano @ 2787:
i’m looking forward to finding your post again in 6 months when we haven’t forgotten.
the US will be the hardest hit of all countries because our steps to limit the virus are pathetic and uncoordinated. it’s too late for any real coordination anyway. have you seen a map lately?
the only reason it seems like it’s not increasing in numbers is because the trump administration is intentionally not providing testing kits. the real numbers would blow up the market (it’ll happen anyway, but is just taking longer). you have to be blind to believe that the virus is under control in the US.
RE: Jeff @ 2796 – I think what really counts is that we are energy independent. Shale oil production costs are going down more and more.
E.g.: I own one (1) share of Tesla. I’d like to think Tesla is right about ICE cars. BUT there are few problems with a Tesla.
1) On a regular 120V, 20A circuit it takes days to recharge a Tesla.
2) $Billions of Tesla earnings come from trading carbon credits to ICE makers. This is also known as a scam/ponzi scheme.
Also:
Space Mountain wait time = 135 minutes right now. Approaching 3 hours of sick people waiting to ride a roller coaster.
On the upside for Tesla:
1) The Cybertruck will have total tooling costs of about $30M in TOTAL. Miniscule.
2) Meanwhile at Ford. JUST to tool a paint shop costs $500M.
RE: David @ 2800 –
Thanks for the update Dave. One share of TSLA seems a fairly modest risk to me, but I certainly wouldn’t be a nest egg on it. Say, would you be willing to share your Disneyland wait time source with us? The one I’m following seems to be seized-up at the moment.
RE: Jeff @ 2801 – I just use their App. There are two – one for DW and the other for DL.
I was also at DW this past Friday at EPCOT and HS. No precautions were in place whatsoever.
By Eastsider @ 2797:
It’s comical to think he thought he could be President. Here he has a crisis in his backyard where he can show up, look like a leader and instead he’s invisible.
By kenmorem @ 2798:
Glad to learn you are rooting for death.
As for the numbers. Global cases, GLOBAL, aren’t compounding, not even close.
Every expert says the world failed to contain the virus, the worst being China.
Yes, despite not containing the virus globally, cases have not grown exponentially and at this point, the top two hardest hit nations are seeing growth rates in steep decline.
We now have enough data on this virus and it’s more than abundantly clear the worst case scenario isn’t happening and it won’t happen.
Why isn’t this info more widely known? People like yourself that want the worst case to be true. Because you want bad things to happen to clown Trump, regardless of cost.
By Beano @ 2804:
Let’s check back in 2 weeks and see if promised exponential growth is occurring – even though we already know that answer – I’ll allow for a miracle to occur for you to be correct.
By Beano @ 2804:
i root for no death. i am just being realistic.
you have the kirkland nursing home where at least 1/4 (and rising sharply) of employees contracted it. and a large large % of patients have died from it. and it’s NBD to you???
the reason it’s not spreading as fast is because other countries, with actual leadership, have quarantined the shit out of their countries. that will never, ever happen in the US.
trump is muzzling the CDC from talking frank. i’m sorry you don’t see that. please explain how italy is producing multiple times more testing kits than our country. the US is intentionally suppressing data. but, like all liars, eventually the truth will come out one way or another.
Fake news is partnered with DNC to tank market before November election. Buyers may have an opportunity in October to buy. I’m holding some casharoo until that time so I can get a nice house or condo in Seattle for cheap.
RE: Erik @ 2805 –
Have you ever heard of more than two dozen folks in a nursing home dying from a single outbreak of flu within just two weeks? Is what happened at the Life Care facility fake? There’s thousands of such facilities around the country. My grandma lives in one. My dad and step dad are both in their 70’s, both with respiratory issues. Maybe you don’t know anybody like this, or maybe you haven’t been following the odds such folks are facing, or maybe you just don’t give a crap about old sick folks facing such horrible odds. Whenever I hear someone describing something as “Fake News”, it’s pretty safe to assume these days that they’re describing a reality they don’t want to come to terms with themselves.
By Jeff @ 2806:
I bet if we had a map of flu deaths and daily body count you would be crying in the fetal position every night.
The daycare facility was struck by incompetence and that one in particular had seriously ill patients.
The threat we face isn’t much different from the flu.
RE: Jeff @ 2806 –
The first reported death was a man from Life Care who was also a kidney patient where my partner goes 3 times a week for kidney dialysis. No one else there got it and all of those patients are high risk people. The staff that worked with the man were quarantined out of an abundance of caution returned today without issue. Their normal practices were sufficient and they stepped it up a bit after they caused the man to be tested. Life Care sent him for his appointment. The Kidney Center noticed his health issue and contained it, gave him his kidney treatment and sent him for testing…NOT back to Life Care.
The Life Care situation should be segregated as an OMG moment because how do they have 26 deaths since 2/19 (as of Saturday) and Kidney Center where one of their infected people and now deceased people was treated and contained?
Put Life Care in Column A and look at all of it outside of Life Care because Life Care has almost all the deaths and those people and people around them were all over the place and in places with other fragile, old people and only the Life Care people are dropping like flies.
Look at everything outside of Life Care and keep Life Care in a separate column. Even the first case in NC was someone who visited Life Care.
I have been self quarantining since 3/1 and disinfecting regularly because Kim can’t self quarantine. He has to go to dialysis 3 days a week. People are containing this. We didn’t need to be tested. We didn’t wait for someone to tell us what to do. Stop politicizing a situation.
LOTS of people who were given Work From Home privileges so they could act responsibly as we are, are not following the protocols. They are laughing and spreading and not caring and going to bars and mingling and having parties and if they hadn’t postponed ComcCon Seattle, some people would have gone.
There is no question but that the politics of this is trying to make more of a real virus for their own reasons. Many who blame this on the President are not themselves following the protocol in place here in King County. Wash your hands is NOT good enough and coughing in your elbow doesn’t cut the mustard.
And Warren did not look very concerned hugging thousands of people while at the same time wailing about the crisis. Even on SNL on Saturday she was hugging and practically licking the mouth of Kate McKinnon. Follow the protocols or shut up. Be a leader by example.
Yes, the US can always do more to contain COVID-19. That said, we are doing very well compared to other countries, including Sweden, Norway, and Finland. There is a column “Total Cases Per Million Population” in the table at the link below. USA is currently at 1.7. Sweden 24.6, Norway 35.4, Finland 5.4. Even Singapore is at 27.3.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
European leaders are downright incompetent (10 times worse). So stop attacking POTUS at every opportunity.
Unfortunately we have a useless do-nothing governor. The decision not to close schools is political and not based on evidence.
By Eastsider @ 2809:
since all you GOP lovers like tout fake news, how can you post shit like this? you know the US is not reporting the cases, right? there is a significant shortfall in virus tests available.
and beano, you must have deleted my response from before (website loophole that allows you to delete other’s posts). in any case, i’m not going to address your latest tripe.
By kenmorem @ 2810:
Stop being a hater. Do you think the US can hide the epidemic? It took mere 2 weeks for cases in Italy, Spain, etc to blow sky high. It will show up in hospital stays. Italy 50% cases require hospital stays. There is no evidence we are anywhere near Italy, Spain, Germany, or France in contagion. Not even in our own backyard.
P.s. I understand there are now well over a million test kits available practically overnight.
By kenmorem @ 2810:
The same people that tout death rate or 3.4% also bitch about lack of testing.
Everyone agrees testing has been very rare. Everyone agrees actual cases are certainly much, much higher in number. Thus, the death rate of 3.4% is much lower as the 3.4% is based off the comically low number of tests.
In fact the number has already been revised or updated to 2.3%. Eventually it will drop closer to the flu death rate.
Now, rate stats are fun. There are many stats we need to consider.
Here is another rate stat: Deaths per American.
Coronavirus: 1 death for every 15 Million Americans
Flu: 1 death for every 8,500 Americans
Fact. Deal with it. Flu has a much higher death rate.
RE: Jeff @ 2806 –
”So last year 37,000 Americans died from the common Flu. It averages between 27,000 and 70,000 per year. Nothing is shut down, life & the economy go on. At this moment there are 546 confirmed cases of CoronaVirus, with 22 deaths. Think about that!“
By Erik @ 2812:
yet the guy on the plane with el presidente had to be quarantined to sit in a separate part of the plane. do as i say, not as i do. oh, and trump’s canceling events. maybe he should go on the front line to show us all just how wimpy this virus is.
By Erik @ 2812:
Exactly.
Death rate expressed a better way:
Coronavirus 1 in 15 million Americans Dead
Flu 1 in 8,500 Americans Dead
Let’s not forget OBAMA deliberately brought people with Ebola to the USA from Africa.
To teach us a lesson.
People became infected as a result.
Obama should have been impeached for that alone.
RE: kenmorem @ 2810 –
I am not a Trump supporter nor am I a Trump hater. I have been a registered Republican since 1972 when I became of age because I worked in a Bank. I voted for Obama…twice. Prior to that I likely primarily voted straight Republican. I did not vote for Trump or Hilary. I will likely vote Biden depending on his running mate. I may vote Trump if it comes down to Bernie and Trump. I try to keep an open mind.
I absolutely agree that using stats to make an argument is a false argument but so is pointing at the President for every “case” in the U.S. as if he could have kept a germ entirely contained and blocked from being in the U.S.
Those who want more and more testing seem to want it to use as a tool in the election process and not due to a sincere concern for people.
I watch MSNBC most of the day and Bill Maher always, so I don’t think you can label me “a GOP lover”. Rachel Maddow just said the President is at fault for not saying that NO SENIORS SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO FLY. Well now I move to the Trump side because I am 65 and I don’t want to live in a Country that tells me I cannot fly to see my children!
No one side is always correct and I will move over to the Trump side if the other side wants to play age discrimination and tell me I am not allowed to fly! That is not the America I want and I don’t want a Bernie America, so I may have to vote Trump 2020 unless it’s Biden. Biden would not tell me I cannot fly. Nor should anyone be saying Trump should have declared that as if he is King!
Sorry to go sideways there. Rachel said that as I was typing. :)
By Ardell DellaLoggia @ 2816:
If you are suggesting that my stats are useless, show me why. If you don’t understand stats and science, don’t make ignorant comment like kenmorem.
The US cases per million population will grow. But it is growing at a much slower rate than Europe. This is exactly what WHO wants – to slow the contagion so it can be better managed. I’m sure you have seen one of the WHO graphs on this subject.
Btw, CDC wants you to stay put if you can –
CDC tells people over 60 or who have chronic illnesses like diabetes to stock up on goods and buckle down for a lengthy stay at home
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/09/many-americans-will-be-exposed-to-coronavirus-through-2021-cdc-says.html
RE: Beano @ 2814 –
You don’t get it. The Coronavirus was just the pin that popped the bubble. The bubble would have popped on any excuse. So don’t think the market is going to improve. The real virus is the overpricing.
This is what happens when drivers of the stock and RE markets close their eyes and put the peddle to the floor.
In a normally valued market, the Coronavirus would not have tanked stocks.
The salient question now is whether the drop is big enough to kick off a negative feedback cycle. Lower stock prices –> less confidence–> less spending and investment–>less earnings–> lower stock prices–> etc…..
This the most legitimate local account of a non elderly not near death COVID19 experience I have seen:
The Microsoft employee is telling us her own story about Positive COVID-19 Result:
Hi, I wanted to let you all know that I tested positive for COVID-19. I suspect that many, many people in the community have/had it but just haven’t been tested. I’m fine now mostly, a little short of breath and occasional cough.
We are following recommendations to keep myself and the kids and my husband quarantined at home for the next 7 days (which will be 14 days total since my symptoms started) even though they are not showing any symptoms. There’s a chance they could still develop symptoms so are not yet in the clear. Technically I am supposedly in the clear, not contagious anymore, but I’m staying home for the next week anyway. Since the day I got sick I have been nervous about the coronavirus and have stayed home and canceled events and tried to take every precaution to keep other people safe. For the first 72 hours I hardly even saw the kids and certainly did not touch them as I was mostly confined to the bedroom.
On Friday, 2/28 I woke up with a sore throat and headache. By noon I was finding it difficult to continue working and informed my client that I had to stop working. Luckily I mostly work from home. By 2pm I had chills and body aches and a mild fever of 100.2 that was gone within a half hour after I took Advil. By 3pm I was in bed and stayed there until well into the next day. I thought it was the flu, but that was the same day we found out that someone near Seattle had gotten coronavirus in the community without any connection to a person overseas. On Saturday I went to the Bartell Greenwood care clinic and was given Tamiflu. I tried to get tested for coronavirus but was told I didn’t meet the criteria for testing at that time. At the suggestion of the nurse, I enrolled (online) in the Seattle Flu Study. Within 2 hours the FedEx guy was at my door. It was a Saturday so I didn’t mail the sample back until Monday. Late yesterday I received a call from a person at King County Public Health informing me that I tested positive for COVID-19. She was lovely and we talked for 30 minutes and she followed up again this morning.
I have personally notified everyone I can think of who I might’ve had contact with. I’ve been on the phone for hours since yesterday.
I am pretty sure I can pinpoint the day I became infected—Tuesday 2/25 I went to lunch with 7 people at a restaurant and by that Friday 4 of us had symptoms (fever, etc). There was no physical contact such as hand shaking or hugging, only sitting at a table together for an hour. Similarly I had a work meeting with 3 people on Thursday (the day before I showed symptoms) and 2 of them got mild fevers within days. Again, no physical contact, just sitting at a table together. This tells you how quickly it transmits. Some people develop only a mild fever and that’s it.
I am extremely grateful to everyone in my community who has offered nothing but support (from afar) and kind words. I should mention that we are fully stocked up on groceries and other supplies at this point, so we’re all set there. Thank you! One of Maia’s weekly chores is wiping down all doorknobs and handles in the house and I’d like to think maybe this contributed in some small way to containing the virus in our household! (Thanks, Maia!)
This has been devastating for everyone involved but I am most concerned for the people whose health is already compromised in some way, and it’s for them that we all need to stay home and contain this virus as quickly as possible. I hope you’ll also consider not attending any events and especially if you’ve had any fever or symptoms, please self-quarantine to keep others safe.
If you have any fever or other symptoms you can call this new King County coronavirus call center to report a suspected case or ask for more information: 206-477-3977.
RE: kenmorem @ 2813 –
You get away from people if you have the flu too. Same procedure.
things will get worse. this is not about washing hands:
http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/03/study-highlights-ease-spread-covid-19-viruses
RE: Eastsider @ 2817 –
That really is fake news, let’s be honest here. Too many are not tested yet, even some of the deceased people we know had it. So you can’t do a “cases” comparison. Maybe in a month or two you can. But what you are doing is the same thing people were doing with Redfin when they were new (Kary) pointing to their low market share. That’s just bogus. There is no real data yet to point to.
They have many dead people at Life Care and many sick people at Life Care with no test results yet for most of them, and we know they have it.
You can’t run %s on that. Not fair.
By Beano @ 2814:
let’s check your “math” or whatever you call it.
if you extrapolate this out, your 22 deaths divided by 546 cases = 4%
normal flu, per your numbers: 1/8500 = 0.01%
4% / 0.01% = 400x more likely to die from CV
get it?
this thing spreads fast and is airborne. every single employee, but 1 as of today, at the kirkland care facility contracted it (heard on NPR). backing into numbers from ST, that means 179/180 employees contracted the virus.
keep up this contagion rate and you let me know how daily life continues in our currently accepted norm.
spreading fast enough for you?
https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/health/coronavirus-daily-news-update-march-9-what-to-know-today-about-covid-19-in-the-seattle-area-washington-state-and-the-nation/
RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 2822 – Biden is so old he’s crispy.
Biden used to talk about so-and-so being his butt-buddy. Anyone slapping Biden on his ass is going to get his hand cut off at the wrist.
Jagged, crispy old mummy butts do that.
Literally Biden never says anything coherent. Just word salads of doof.
RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 2822 – I am not suggesting that the numbers are 100% accurate. No country is testing everyone. But the numbers do give you a sense of the scale of contagion. You can also look at number of hospitalizations (relative to seasonal numbers.) We are certainly doing better than many western European countries at present.
RE: David @ 2823 –
I’m always undecided to the end and keep an open mind, but that ugly speech isn’t going to sway me. Biden’s a good man. That’s all I got.
I don’t like revealing my politics, and I’m not a political animal. An analyst can’t be really. But leave it to you to not miss a cheap shot.
I just think when people talk about the virus they have to throw their political bias on the table with it, since it’s become political fodder.
RE: Eastsider @ 2824 –
In 7 days, and assuming we have tested more that this by then, we will be at over 15,000 positive cases.
RE: QA Observer @ 2826 – It depends on effectiveness of containment effort. In WA state, we have big businesses that support containment effort at great costs. Yet our bureaucrats are not shutting down large gatherings and schools.
RE: Eastsider @ 2824 –
They don’t because only a tiny % of the main source of U.S. deaths have been tested and all the people who came in contact with them. At least wait until all of the Life Care people are tested. They had almost 100 sick people including staff and only 45 tests to give on Saturday. They didn’t even test all of the 26 people that died there since the 19th and we have no stats before the 19th. Wider spread testing is just beginning.
RE: Eastsider @ 2824 –
Some new numbers in from Life Care.
All the patients at Life Care Center have been tested, finally. (70 or more sick staff not included yet)
55 Patients Remaining
31 positive
20 still waiting for results
3 inconclusive
1 negative
Take the % of the 120 Life Care residents and the % is astronomical. The priest who gave last rights to at least one is in quarantine. The police and firemen. So many more to be tested and what we know from other Countries is many who tested negative at first tested positive later, so more than one test may be needed.
You had 120 patients, 26 died (maybe more since my last count on Saturday) 31 have it 20 awaiting results. Seems like we’re missing some people.
RE: kenmorem @ 2813 –
If I was president, I wouldn’t let anyone come around me with any contagious virus.
By Ardell DellaLoggia @ 2822:
someone, again, deleted my post debunking that “math”. i guess this is how fake news propagators continue the narrative. eliminate logic and facts. sigh…
RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 2829 –
19 confirmed deaths from Coronavirus of 120 people at Life Care. 7 more deaths. All in less than a month.
RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 2832 – I’d be curious to know how many in nursing homes die from pneumonia.
I’ll bet the death rate is quite high from that.
RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 2825 – “Look. Tomorrow’s Super Thursday,” he said, before correcting himself. “…Tuesday,” [Biden] continued as the crowd chuckled.
Now they are going to let Biden sit at the next debate.
Apple sauce and Vitamin B shots will be served during the commercial breaks.
Post-debate female hair sniffing will be used to revive the old dottering coot. Which is certainly better than when Bernie Sanders encouraged Toddlers to ‘touch’ each other. (Almost certainly explaining why Sanders suddenly took a nosedive).
RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 2816 – Rachel Madow is still on the air? She was over the top with her Russian collusion “proof” 24/7. What a buffoon! Really, you watch that drivel?
Have you noticed that
coronavirus makes
some strange bedfellows?
-a coronavirus bubble haiku
RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 2829 –
You shouldn’t extrapolating Life Care numbers. Life Care accounts for 19 of 26 deaths in the US. Its residents are the most vulnerable in the population.
TDS TRIGGER WARNING – A published paper suggests that COVID-19 may go away in the summer. Almost all outbreaks today are in areas with similar climate.
Its Corona Confusion Hysteria on the Bubble Now….Great Comments Pro and Con All….Now Gulp Your “Public” Office Made MJB, But Make Sure Ya Washed Your Hands Before Ya Grab the Mug and Read the brief Brief:
“… For Carleigh Bedell and others who are at high risk if exposed to the coronavirus, life has taken a painful turn: self-isolation. “You have to manage loneliness,” says Bedell, 55, who’s been shut in at her Ballard home for more than a month. And you have to manage anxiety, dwindling supplies and too much time on your hands. Here’s what this is like. (Photo: Greg Gilbert / The Seattle Times)
What’s next: the possible steps against coronavirus
Seattle-area health officials are “at the ready” to start ordering involuntary quarantines and are considering cancellation of major events, a top official said as she outlined the potential actions ahead. Diagnosed cases have surpassed 160, with 22 deaths. Follow today’s updates and read about the effects on our region, from schools to businesses and nursing homes. More:
Open the windows. Don’t share food. The U.S. government has new prevention advice. Find more about protecting yourself in our visual guide to the virus….”
SWE’s take: Office doughnuts can be touched by flu hands, stop eating ’em. Office cafeterias are suspect too, the germs can spread from plastic gloves too…so what food is safe? Only food inside your flu free homes?
“…Boeing’s engineering union has split over its contract extension. The result: two divergent contracts. Here’s what’s in them…”
SWE’s take: The guaranteed raise is only 0% for one group of us and .5% for the other next year! Are you kidding me?” one SPEEA member, who wished to remain unnamed for fear of retribution, told MyNorthwest. “In the contract (current), we gave up our guaranteed raise pool, pension, and health care in exchange for almost nothing – except two more vacation days. Wonderful, now make sure ya pay your SPEEA union dues?
“…The U.S. must defend the free press but do so without further restricting the press, as it’s doing with visiting Chinese news organizations, writes The Seattle Times editorial board. And editorial cartoonist David Horsey has thoughts on today’s Washington state presidential primary. ..”
SWE’s take: If Trump didn’t put coronavirus travel retrictions; you’d blame him for coronavirus spread too. Trump is the devil automatically?
Good News: Stocks bounce back up about 20% today. The stimulus packages Trump offers were the cause [or blame if you’re a negative thinker…LOL]
RE: Eastsider @ 2837 –
I think the Life Care patients are all out now. 31 survivors of Life Care were sent to hospital with active COVID19. 3 released I think as being well. 32 Dead.
I’m not saying don’t count them. I’m saying make a Column A Life Care and Column B the Country without Life Care. Those people are not victims and survivors of COVID 19. They are victims and survivors of one Nursing Home.
News is saying death toll for U.S. is 27 and Life Care is saying Death Toll for them alone is 32. You have to agree that’s an extraordinary situation and if the death toll for the entire Country never exceeds that at Life Care then they are the one off.
RE: Blurtman @ 2835 –
My partner Kim does and I hear it while I’m working, in the background. This morning I made sure it was on Gunsmoke. :) I do actively watch and enjoy Bill Maher. I have the mug because my son in law worked on that set for awhile. I prefer my news masked in humor, as most of the Country does.
RE: David @ 2834 –
I have the “This is a Big ^(&*(%$% Deal” Biden mug. I like Biden, you don’t have to. He’s a bit more of a Homeboy for me than Trump.
I don’t want any one of the three old than old white guys for a President of the United States. But that’s what we got to choose from. So I’m Republican or Moderate Democrat. Nothing wrong with that stance.
I can’t believe they fired Chris Matthews. I’m not sure what happened there. I heard it on Bill Maher.
RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 2839 – Yes, the Life Care situation is similar to the Diamond Princess incident in Japan and should be treated as a special case.
By Joe @ 2818:
I don’t care about the market.
I care about the fake panic that destroys local business.
Coronavirus is less deadly than SARS or MERS.
There was no absurd panic during these viruses in the US. Was George W Bush a genius at containing SARS? Guess so, based on what’s being said today.
Was Obama a clown for allowing 12,000 to die of H1N1? We didn’t have any kind of public effort to limit gatherings and work from home or shut down sporting events. Was he asleep at the switch?
The hype is absurd and it’s doing real damage to real people that work.
There are still talking heads out there gleefully predicting a millions dead and they still repeat the lie that this virus doubles every 6 or 7 days. We have enough data now to know that’s a total lie. The growth rates have dropped sharply.
WSJ – New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo said the state would deploy National Guard troops and establish a “containment area” in a Westchester County suburb at the center of the coronavirus outbreak in the state.
Has anyone seen Inslee?
By Ardell DellaLoggia @ 2822:
Life Care is an outlier on the entire planet. It was filled with incompetence and for all practical purposes it was a hospice.
By QA Observer @ 2826:
Such a puny number.
Fact is the doomsayers were claiming (still claiming!) exponential growth, a doubling every 6 or 7 days. We have enough data now to know that was total bull.
Add 15,000 to the global total, currently 116k we hit 131k.
Where was the global total 3 weeks ago? 75k.
No doubling every 6-7 days, not even close. The rate of growth is slowing rapidly and I don’t think it’s because the Ivy League called off the basketball tournament.
RE: Beano @ 2845 –
As far as I can tell there are very few deaths outside of Life Care in the entire Country. And Cuomo just called in The National Guard. What a game they play. Politics. Pissed at the whole lot of them right now.
In other news, real estate this week seems to have had no change. I’m a bit surprised. The houses I expected to go Pending did and with no Inspection Contingency. I’ll have to recheck that on Thursday/Friday as a lot have review dates of tomorrow. This for my main Zip Codes in Kirkland, Bellevue and Redmond and priced $800,000 to $1.2 Million. That’s what I’m watching as it’s my primary service area. 98033,98034,98052,98053,98004,98005,98006,98007,98008. I’ll take a peek at Issaquah and Sammamish too, but they generally fall in line with the above Zip Codes. Bothell is no longer a “by zip code” function.
RE: Beano @ 2843 –
Why do you care about local business? Is it fair to conclude that you at a local business owner?
US doesn’t have the gonads to enforce a quarantine like that of China or even a loose one like Italy’s, thus it’s going to get the coronavirus hard either before the summer or after the summer. I would not buy more stock until Dow below 20,000, which I sense is coming before the end of the year.
By Ardell DellaLoggia @ 2840:
You aren’t implying that Madow is anyway remotely related to news, I trust. She is a sick individual, promulgating divisive lies. Yes, there certainly are deplorable Democrats. For the record, not a Trumper. Go Bernie!
RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 2841 – Would you let Joe Biden manage a real estate deal for you?
Not sure Biden has ever seen a private sector paycheck in his life. Biden wakes up every first of the month looking for his direct deposit from the Treasury – and has for 50 years.
Biden knows and understands very little that doesn’t raid the Treasury.
Biden isn’t your kind of person.
By David @ 2851:
By Intsokzen @ 2849:
Truth.
Biden actually won his election to the US Senate at age 29. Funny, but you have to be 30 to be a US Senator.
Turns out all that matters is age when you actually take office.
Either way Biden was the youngest US Senator in history. He’s been in the government his entire life.
RE: Beano @ 2852 –
John Vessey who retired as Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff in 1985 served in the military since he was 16 in 1939. He claimed to be 18 in 1939 and was Active military for 46 years.
“L.C. Buckshot” Leonard Charles Smith served in the Police Department for 56 years.
Since when did a Lifetime of Service become a bad thing?
RE: Eastsider @ 2844 –
I actually kinda freaked out at a Kirkland City Council Member to do a one mile containment around Life Care Center last week, Sunday the 1st I think, when he was telling everyone to go out and support your local businesses/restaurants. I told him he was like the Mayor in Jaws. I like him a lot, but…Hello! If anything deserved a one mile containment area it was around Life Care in Kirkland.
Now that they removed everyone from the Life Care Center I’ve calmed down. And no new deaths since they sent the remaining 31 with the virus over to Evergreen. That situation was driving me crazy. Ambulances in and out people dying day after day and more than one a day…and the deaths stopped when they emptied the building over to Evergreen. Hopefully they will continue to do well there, though I expect not all 31 will live. I was frantic because I wanted them to get the people out of there and put a one mile containment area around the building from the getgo. Since the first of 32 deaths.
One of the worst things I’ve seen in my lifetime and I’d be hard pressed to try to remember a close second.
RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 2854 –
What’s going on with mortgage rates?
without a full world quarantine, there will be no stopping of this virus. summer will slow it, but it will be raging again come fall.
Inslee to institute statewide suspension of rent payments. News at 11.
RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 2854 –
I believe the biggest mistake here is not to close schools this entire month. Nothing will stop the spread if schools are open. Sure, kids may not be affected by the disease much but they will spread it broadly in the population. All Ivy League universities are closing schools after spring break. We still want our professors, many 60+, after the crisis is over!
Inslee is the worst governor in the country. No wonder he polled below 1% in the democratic primary. He couldn’t even get support from his own state. Pathetic!
RE: Blurtman @ 2856 – This is vote buying. Not attacking the pandemic. Pathetic!
By Eastsider @ 2858:
Hey, I was just kidding. It’s Fake News like CNN.
Erik, come back in off the ledge. 😁
It looks like we have hit the lower bound in 30yr mortgage rates last week. Mortgage rates will likely not go lower even if 10yr treasury yield declines further from here. Mortgage rates are now higher and that is if you are lucky to obtain a loan!
A tanking stock market and a rising (!) mortgage rate. Not a good sign for the housing market.
Super-low interest rates disappear from mortgage comparison sites
https://www.housingwire.com/articles/super-low-interest-rates-disappear-from-mortgage-comparison-sites/
RE: Blurtman @ 2859 – All Inslee has (not) done is to worsen the contagion. He is indecisive and takes miniscule steps that won’t effectively slow the spread of the disease. If Hong Kong, a densely populated city is doing better than Seattle, he is failing his day job!
RE: Eastsider @ 2861 – I think he played college football before the use of helmets.
RE: Blurtman @ 2862 – brutal.
Biden Surged Ahead and the Stocks Plummeted Too, or Was it the BIG Boeing [170 points portion of the DOW’s 800 point drop today BTW ] Sell-off or was it England slashed interest rates with $30/bbl oil and 0.3% 10 year treasuries or was it coronavirus fears????? GLOBAL MELTDOWN, globalism has failed. Now, slide your flu mask down and gulp your MJB down in large nervous gulps, and read the brief Brief:
“… PRIMARY ELECTION RESULTS
Joe Biden gained powerful momentum last night on his way to the Democratic nomination, but in Washington state, he’s locked in a dead heat with Bernie Sanders. See Washington’s county-by-county results. (More are expected this afternoon at Seattletimes.com.) With both President Donald Trump and the virus looming, Democrats are suddenly seeking safety, writes columnist Danny Westneat. Where does all of this leave us? Here are key takeaways and the delegate tracker, which puts Bernie Sanders at a crossroads…”
SWE’s take: The Democrat Mayor of Oakland praised Trump for his “detailed” coronavirus assistance and direction in getting the victims “safely” quarantined from the large cruise ship. This flu isn’t partisan, it destroys all our retirement 401Ks folks leveraged in stocks. America is #1 in disease control globally, the travel restrictions and quarantines under Trump have helped too. Do we need a 1 mile quarantine zone around the infected nursing home epicenter of coronavirus like NYC??? Bernie had a big public rally with 1000s a few days ago, do we need to make these illegal now too? I’m sure the new Trump wall section has helped keep 3rd world disease from spreading too…or is this all over-kill and fear mongering???
“…Police are seeking a man who shot and killed another man in a Renton parking lot yesterday. The shooter, who ran from the lot near Renton High School, is considered armed and dangerous.
The bodies of a woman and child were found last night in woods near Olympia, reportedly discovered by two hikers. The deaths are being investigated as homicides, the Thurston County Sheriff’s Office says….”
SWE’s take: Coronavirus stress causing almost daily inner city Detroit Seattle violence to get worse now?
“…Now that many of us are hunkered down inside, let’s talk about 10 great board games, the hot shows that are streaming, and — sugar! Here’s a comforting Filipino dessert recipe from the creative director at Hood Famous….”
SWE’s take: If one of you are sick with coronavirus and you’re living in the same closed quarters, the chance of everyone getting infected at home is exponential too. Group sizes have nothing to do with it. Same with work offices, one gets it and soon the whole office is coughing too. I’m retired now, I can be honest about it.
Good News: Wash your hands after visiting public places and never, never touch your face at work or any other possibly contaminated public place, until after you scrubbed your hands with hot water and soap, they say drying ’em well helps too. Its almost impossible to do without great concentration and habit. But works.
When you listen to Bernie Sanders, it sounds like his big plan is to raid everyone’s 401ks. He calls it a tax on speculation.
To fund his ‘free’ everything.
Also, if free basic income and negative interest rates have resulted from massive government debt and out of control entitlements, does your $dollar have any real value?
That is the real danger – a no value dollar.
RE: Blurtman @ 2859 –
LOL Blurtman
I liked your joke.
I stopped liking Inslee when I wrote him letters and he didn’t even give me a “boilerplate” double talk reply back…
RE: David @ 2865 –
The Bernie/Biden Split in the Democratic Party
Is FAR WORSE than the Never Trumpers versus the Trump deplorables….I heard 10% of the Bernie supporters voted Trump and many didn’t vote at all in 2016
Does Inslee’s 250 person limit Ban Include Restaurants, Bars, Movie Theaters, Space Needle, operas, basketball games, etc, etc too???
https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/americans-split-movie-theaters-should-close-coronavirus-1283753
RE: softwarengineer @ 2867 – I won’t be voting for Biden. Will write in Bernie or vote Green.
By Ardell DellaLoggia @ 2853:
When you don’t understand what typical life is like.
By Ardell DellaLoggia @ 2854:
This disaster at Life Care isn’t getting the attention it deserves. Total and utter incompetence inside that building and at the local level.
RE: Blurtman @ 2869 – Sirota’s tweet after Bernie’s announcement today: yezzz…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lF7M0FISH5Y
By softwarengineer @ 2868:
Does it include Costco? Walmart? At any given moment there are surely +250 people shopping or in line.
RE: Beano @ 2873 –
Retail stores are excluded. I’ll find the article I read and post when I can
“Seattle is Different!”
https://www.geekwire.com/2020/washington-state-bans-large-events-three-counties-slow-spread-covid-19-governor-calls-pandemic-extremely-dangerous/
From the article:
The announcement applies to sporting events, concerts, conferences, and social and family gatherings in the Seattle region. Inslee said the prohibition will last until the end of the month but cautioned, “it is very highly likely that it will be extended beyond March.”
Please note that Joe Biden has repeatedly asked people to leave his ‘children alone.
‘Children’ is a 50+-year-old, Stripper-knockin-up guy who left his wife (&kids) to sex up his dead brother’s widow. Then dumped said widow. While knockin-boots with said Stripper.
‘Children’ drives a new Porsche and lives in a $12k/month house.
Truly a family that thrives on the Gubment teet.
I wonder what will happen to home prices in Snohomish county this year. Boeing stock getting whacked majorly. From $333 to $190 in a flash. Also, they have the Coronavirus pretty bad, unfortunately.
The next show to fall throughout the state will obviously be layoffs, so the housing picture is bleak.
As I said weeks ago, when interest rates drop, the mortgage rates will not drop because default risk has increased tremendously.
Put simply, all the drivers of Seattle RE prices are now gone:
-Chinese buying gone
-Potential for lower interest rates gone
-Jobs growth picture gone
-Rising wealth (largely from stocks) gone
I’m afraid we will watch 2009 unfold again.
RE: Joe @ 2878 –
Who knows to what degree, but it certainly seems there are headwinds now. Let us also not forget about Alaska Airlines and Expedia, two companies who are NOT doing well right now.
RE: Beano @ 2871 –
They had previously been fined, and I heard $67,000 two years ago, for only one person not getting the flu. So no surprises there that they didn’t have sufficient germ transfer prevention of the normal kind. We need a process that is more than just a monetary fine. MUCH more. If a restaurant gets a very bad rating they close it down. Why not a nursing home?
RE: ohd1122 @ 2879 –
….and also Starbucks.
Several Seattle companies will be hurting – Boeing, Expedia, Alaska Air, Starbucks, etc. Also, the bad times will eventually spread to Microsoft and Amazon as general demand decreases. I imagine all discretionary IT projects will be on indefinite hold throughout the country as companies tighten up to service high debt loads ensure cash flow to make payroll.
Italy is closing all stores except grocery and pharmacy.
Crazy how far they will go to harm Trump’s re-election!
Who here is personally following high alert personal protocols? I will list mine in case that is helpful. I am on highest protocols and have been since the first announced death on 2/29.
14 day abundance of caution self quarantine. Mostly to be relatively certain I’m not a carrier. Almost finished that.
Washing hands often of course. Home made “purell” and other natural concoctions that are antibacterial.
99% alcohol for hard surfaces we touch a lot . Since we think the range of airborne is about 10′ and then droplets, droplets are deemed to live 12 hours or so on hard surfaces and 6 hours or so on cloth surfaces. Sometimes Lysol wipes. Sometimes bleach and sometimes 99% alcohol. It depends what I’m cleaning.
UV wand primarily for cloth surfaces, shoes, reclining chair, and things that have “holes” like remote controls and laptop key area. Areas that you can’t disinfect with a liquid. Many things are a combo like 99% alcohol on the phone and laptop keys and screens and remotes and then a UV wand after the alcohol to get into the nooks and crannies.
I do go out where there are no people and maintain 6 feet when I need to speak with someone in person, which is rare during the 14 day self quarantine. I’m from Philly. We can yell at people. We don’t need to get too close so they can hear us. We are OK with loud talking. :)
I changed my in person meetings to email, text and phone since 3/1 during the self quarantine. Worked fine.
I advised some of my clients and past clients to keep their children home from school on 3/1. Especially the pre-schoolers. No need for them to go to “school”.
I ordered some “rave masks” and stylish gloves, not medical gear, for when the self quarantine is lifted. I can disinfect these with the UV wand or washing them and I ordered enough to put on a fresh one each time I need to be near people, still maintaining the 6′ space. But if someone coughs or sneezes 6′ is not enough of a distance and that is why I have the rave mask that looks like a scarf around my neck, but I can pull up over nose and mouth to be sure that I don’t cough or sneeze into the air of a store, as example. The cough in your inner elbow thing doesn’t work for me. My daughter told me see sneezes into her shirt. LOL! The rave masks can also be the sport masks used for “dust” sports. They look like regular clothes. Even a scarf around your neck that you can pull up over your face will be sufficient and not induce panic. This to contain your own droplets primarily.
I have a 3 foot tall UV and HEPA filter constantly circulating and cleaning the air inside my living space and I move it about a bit, but I always do that with the HEPA on and not the UV on because I don’t have a heating source with an air filter. So if you have radiant heat or baseboard heat or old furnace that doesn’t have a good HEPA fileter (and change the filter you have) then get a free standing one. I bought it when the Canadian Fires smoke was here to clean the smoke out of the air. I also bought it for two of my three daughters back then since they are in the California wildfire smoke spread areas. My third daughter is too but she’s my youngest with no children yet. I was giving her things for her wedding at the time I was giving the other two air purifying systems. :)
I don’t know what my full protocol will be once I’m out and about but I have already advised my clients to not go to Open Houses. I started that back on 3/1 as well. I told them if we do need to see a house we will see it when no one but us is in it. Not at an Open House. We have not “needed” to see any since 3/1. I don’t tell them they CAN’T go to Open Houses, but I did say if you HAVE TO, don’t all of you go as a family. One of the adults can run through it and if they love it we can make arrangements to see it outside of Open House hours. But no need for two parents and their small children to be going in and out of Open Houses right now. Don’t do that.
I’m surprised there were 155 Open Houses in Kirkland the other day. Really? If Kirkland can’t be proactively leading the way to Best Protocols, we can expect NOTHING from our Government. We could not pretend ignorance of Kirkland spread since 2/29. If the people are doing nothing, those right in the yard of IT/Life Care and within 1 mile of Life Care, then they can’t fault the Government for their not engaging their own common sense.
I have to time for “I did NOTHING but I blame the Government”. Not here in Kirkland or even in the Seattle Area as a whole. Anyone who was buying “wash your hands” was the be all-end all. Really.
My $.02 I think I did everything I could to prevent my spreading anything out of an abundance of caution. My protocols are higher as Kim couldn’t totally self quarantine as he as to be at kidney dialysis three or four days a week for many hours. I had to re-disinfect every time he returned and still will. Though I have total confidence in NW Kidney Centers who have been the exact opposite of Life Care Center. :)
RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 2883 –
Sorry to hear of your partner’s circumstance, Ardell. That’s a tough road.
OT, Seattle public schools just closed end of today for a minimum of 2 week.
RE: David @ 2877 – when was the last time those freeloading Bidens spent a hundred million taxpayer dollars on golf?
RE: Don @ 2884 – Hope Spring sports does not get squashed. Hope they can do a workaround. Especially for all the Seniors.
Shoreline is now closed as well.
By Eastsider @ 2649:
Finally they are closing schools! Better late than sorry. It looks like we will do better than Italy in containing the disease. Italy just shut down all bars, restaurants and shops (except food stores and pharmacies.) I don’t think we will need to do that here. Hopefully, the warmer weather in (late) April will help with the disease control.
By Ardell DellaLoggia @ 2880:
Local incompetence abounds.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/11/us/coronavirus-kirkland-hospital-seattle.html
A lot of chatter locally how great local healthcare is…. but is it? Virtually every city I’ve been acts like their local medicine is great. What is any of this based on?
Two facilities being totally mismanged to this degree is incredible. Or is it?
By uwp @ 2882:
Italy isn’t USA. fyi
Makes you wonder the kind of genius George W Bush was to have 0 SARS deaths on his watch, while Obama had 12,000 Americans dead with H1N1.
Guess how many Americans have died of flu since 2/29, the date the 1st coronavirus death announced?
Flu deaths: ~*2,000
Coronavirus: 30
Based off 40,000 deaths yearly average. Adjusting daily death rate for fact flu is seasonal.
Looks like experts are right – this is *not* the flu!
RE: Beano @ 2890 –
Unfortunately I’ve heard many people say what you are saying, however the flu is a known quantity, COVID 19 is not. We know what influenzas transmission/deaths look like on a graph, it is well established. Influenza goes up in winter, then goes down in spring and summer. Now go ahead and graph the increase in transmission and deaths for covid19. what will it look like going forward? You don’t know. You can’t know, yet. An abundance of Caution is warranted.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel said up to 70% of German population could get infected. German population is 83m. 70% is 58m. WHO estimates mortality rate of 3.4%. China mortality rate is 3.8%.
3.4% of 58m = 2m.
Two million dead Germans if the contagion runs its course.
US population is more than 4 times that of Germany. We are talking about potential 8m dead people here.
US deaths in WWII was 400k. COVID-19 is 20x as deadly as WWII.
Enough said.
By Eastsider @ 2892:
Not exactly…the current mortality rate is based on cases that are known…How many people that have or had the virus but it were never officially diagnosed? That number alone will drive the mortality rate down significantly.
RE: Eastsider @ 2892 – You can always count on the Germans to do something stupid.
Germans are the actual reason the Roman Empire fell – seriously.
I have a feeling that Warren Buffett is buying Boeing stock.
If he could get GE’s jet engine biz WOW.
Boeing market cap is $130B right now. Berkshire has more than that cash.
By OA @ 2893:
Yes, no one knows the real CFR today. But I am pretty certain the numbers I gave are not off by an order of magnitude. We are still looking at number of deaths in the millions if we do not stop the spread.
I read an excerpt from the Italian trenches:
Most hospital staff and health care worker all have COVID, but are not going home or quarantining themselves. Reason: there is no one else to run health care.
They are now deciding which patient to save. Broadly, they have made a decision to let anyone over 60 go.
Sad situation. Let’s hope it doesn’t get that gnarly here.
RE: QA Observer @ 2897 – Our hospitals are prepping for surge work. Not if, when.
RE: sfrz @ 2898 –
What is surge work?
Side gripe: I think Hipaa protections should be lifted during this pandemic.
RE: QA Observer @ 2899 – Getting prepped for a surge in the EDs. Staff, supplies, beds, dry runs. Getting ready to be exhausted and overwhelmed, just like the Italian staff.
Seattle is the US’s Wuhan:
“As luck would have it, Dr. Chu had a way to monitor the region. For months, as part of a research project into the flu, she and a team of researchers had been collecting nasal swabs from residents experiencing symptoms throughout the Puget Sound region.
To repurpose the tests for monitoring the coronavirus, they would need the support of state and federal officials. But nearly everywhere Dr. Chu turned, officials repeatedly rejected the idea, interviews and emails show, even as weeks crawled by and outbreaks emerged in countries outside of China, where the infection began.
By Feb. 25, Dr. Chu and her colleagues could not bear to wait any longer. They began performing coronavirus tests, without government approval.
What came back confirmed their worst fear. They quickly had a positive test from a local teenager with no recent travel history. The coronavirus had already established itself on American soil without anybody realizing it.
The CDC and the FDA would not have that:
The message from the federal government was blunt. “What they said on that phone call very clearly was cease and desist to Helen Chu,” Dr. Lindquist [the state epidemiologist in Washington] remembered. “Stop testing.”” https://www.greanvillepost.com/2020/03/11/coronavirus-the-hidden-cases-why-we-must-shut-down-everything-and-do-it-now/
RE: sfrz @ 2901 – https://www.uwmedicine.org/bios/helen-chu
By Joe @ 2881:
Expedia has already cut 500 positions in Seattle.
https://www.geekwire.com/2020/expedia-cuts-3000-jobs-including-500-new-seattle-hq-read-internal-email-employees/
This will be just like 2008. Falling mortgage rates will not create demand. Stock market investors said this could never, ever happen. Real estate is always the next shoe to drop after a market crash, and the same folks in real estate business who drank the Kool-Aid will end up like the stock market believers.
George Gammon is a rising financial star. I would take his warnings about Seattle very seriously.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QB8N0etyLuI
RE: Eastsider @ 2860 –
More scope on rising mortgage rates from WSJ –
In addition, bank balance sheets are under stress. E.g. Boeing just drew down their credit lines. Banks will have less money to lend.
This is the worst time to buy RE. Run, not walk away.
RE: Beano @ 2890 –
Fuzzy Math
I knew 20 years ago the flu vaccines were needed yearly for continuous yearly “new strains”, therefore the shot you had last Fall was almost useless to fight most “growing strain” flu, except low “percentage” degree “old” strains dying out. Essentially useless flu shots then and useless against this possibly “common” coronavirus strain popping up from China last January too. The coronavirus death rate is the ticker though and without test kits to all, how the Hades do we calculate that? Ouija Boards? Guesses from our medical leaders are like grade schoolers getting Calculus right. We need math credentialed estimating from statistical experts.
I’m sure this “decades old conspiracy theory”” on flu shots misinformation adds gasoline to our current fears, they expected the flu shots to work and now they know they don’t. Its shocked us all now? I was afraid the bank doors may close for ALL of us soon [worst case scenario] if the Great Depression stock crash happens again. Trump assured us the banks got plenty in the vaults this time [tax credits to CEOs folks] to avoid an emergency bailout of the banksters, even with a stock sellout and bank stock values plummetting. But none the less, preventing 1000s of pneumonia deaths a year from flu and colds is a worthy mission to stop and I support it anyway. Maybe we can get passed this horrifying killer flu scare without Obama style quantitative easing because of the corporate tax cuts from Phase I. Phase II tax cuts for the average Joe tax charts will be voted on by Congress in 2021 assuming Trump is elected.
We’ve lost almost all of the stock gains since I sold all my stocks, I was 6 years early selling all my stocks, but +/-6 years in the stock market is like a blink of the eye. Stocks need to be kept for decades to win the ultimate prize [unless you’re a short sell gambler on specific stocks and most of them lose too], just hope ya sell in time. Sounds like RE too after a post recession.
My financial advice: do what the banks have “apparently” done to date….fill your “Jack Benny” vaults with lots of $CASH$. Begin now, if you haven’t.
If You’re Home on Paid Leave [What’s left of it], Out of Work or Better Yet Teleworking; Grab Your MJB Mugs and Read the brief Brief:
“… Transportation: Buses, trains and ferries are running with far fewer riders. Interestingly, Inslee has suggested adding more buses.
Restaurants: Famed Seattle chef Tom Douglas will temporarily close 12 of his 13 restaurants. He’s talking about his hopes of reopening and his workers’ fate. ..”
SWE’s Take: MASS transit is running empty buses….time to add more then??? What is Inslee smoking?
Must be a good strain….LOL
“…Actor Tom Hanks and his wife, Rita Wilson, are ill with COVID-19 and isolated in an Australia hospital…”
SWE’s take: Not Tom Hanks too!!! My gosh, he’s about my age and I’ve been told we look like each other too….SWE next? BTW, Tom Hanks’ coronavirus symptoms were ambiguous too: just felt tired and no fever, cough or stuffed nose. A walking “Typhoid Mary” in my book, spreading the virus unknowingly????
“…Get your warm coat. Temperatures will fall and we may even see a snowflake or two in the Puget Sound area, but the forecast isn’t looking quite as wintry as forecasts had indicated a few days ago…”
SWE’s Take: Global cooling in Spring for Seattle?
Good News: I survived the Swine Flu in the 70s [I caught it and it lasted a month with horrifying symptoms too, like aching eyes, etc…]….it killed off 17000 when our American population was much smaller too.
By sfrz @ 2900:
projected hospital overload date is 3/25. i suspect it will actually be earlier than that.
https://medium.com/@trentmc0/when-does-hospital-capacity-get-overwhelmed-in-usa-germany-a06cf2835f89
By David @ 2894:
^dumbshit on the internet thinks things that happened 2000 years are are still indicative of modern actions.
By Beano @ 2890:
failure to understand mortality rate. nice work. #beanoforprez2024
Wow the stock market is a mess
RE: OA @ 2910 – How ’bout those 401k’s? Hint: don’t look.
By sfrz @ 2911:
lol I’m not going to look. Good time to buy and/or start cost averaging in? S&P is down 25% this past month. Thoughts?
By Eastsider @ 2904:
This is the best time to run away from apt living and any house sharing. Cornora virus from your apartment tenant and roommate. Better to stay your home and keep away the deadly virus. The whole deadly living assistant center incident teaches us that share the space=share the deadly virus.
RE: Lulu @ 2913 – This is crazy to say, I am sorry. An assisted living facility is completely different than 90% of apartment living. Assisted living facilities are literally all people that are high risk to these kinds of illnesses. And saying house sharing too…. that’s very scare tactic. So do my husband and child need separate houses to live in as well? I mean toddlers are the biggest disease carriers I have ever met. You can be completely save and live in an apartment just practice good hygiene.
Where is this money coming from? Are we going full Zimbabwe? This sucker could go down.
Sven Henrich@NorthmanTrader
Today’s Fed liquidity injections: The same size as the annual US military budget.
Tomorrow’s Fed liquidity injections: The same size as the annual US military budget.
Let it sink in.
By kenmorem @ 2908:
The Germans are doing stupid things now – not just 2,000 years ago.
There was also that whole WW2 thing, WW1 thing, invading France multiple times before that thing,….
RE: SnP @ 2914 –
If you have many people live in the same building. They will share the same door knob, elevator, stair rail and hallway. World epidemic map shows China, Italy, etc, are all very densely populated and many live in the apt style community and have frequently unknown vistitors. The Kirkland assistant live center incident is caused by visitors bring virus and have the same apartment style living. If you live in a SFH, your chance to get virus from unknown visitors is very rare.
Personal flamethrowers are flying off the shelf. Sorry coughing roomie. WHOOSH!
RE: sfrz @ 2915 –
It’s about time we stop calling them liquidity injections and start calling them long term government loans.
Last time around, the RE market enjoyed all the bailout perks. This time around, that industry will have to compete with many others – workers, renters, indebted corporations, pension holders, etc. There are lots of people that will be hurting and requesting bailouts as this everything bubble pops. Do not expect RE to be supported this time around like it was last time around. The Fed will not be buying MBS, like it did before.
Corporate revenues have now dropped precipitously. How can corporations keep their employees on board in this environment? I fear many layoffs to come, including local layoffs.
RE: OA @ 2912 –
I’m scaling back into the market with an expectation stocks will drop 50-70% over the next two years. I had a lot of money in CDs and gold, which worked out well, but this money needs to be SLOWLY deployed in the stock market.
We were casually looking at houses, but that’s out of the question now. I expect RE will be dropping 20-40% over the next few years as it follows the stock market down.
RE: Joe @ 2919 – Agreed. What the banks (BoA, Merrill Lynch, Lehman)were to 2007, Oil companies(shale) are to 2020. Trump hyped these massive bubbles and debt saying everything is awesome. We are out of bullets. Blood on the streets.
SCHOOLS CLOSED THROUGH APR 24!!!!!
RE: Joe @ 2920 –
You didn’t learn your lesson when you got priced out of the housing market, huh?
RE: Joe @ 2920 –
You didn’t learn your lesson when you got priced out of the housing market, huh?
JUST IN: Disneyland closing as of Friday because of coronavirus. Only 4th time in history that operations have been fully suspended: 9/11, Northridge quake, nat’l day of mourning after JFK assassination.
Can’t remember who was posting wait times at Disneyland last week, but you’re the sucker now.
RE: David @ 2895 –
I think it’s more likely Boeing will do a capital restructuring whereby current shareholders lose everything, and current legal claims are extinguished. This would put the company on sound financial footing, which would also be necessary given its importance to the country. Note, the company is important, not the shareholders.
Just want to say to everyone out here – be safe, be, smart, take precautions, spend time with your families and definitely limit your daily news/media intake as all that does is drive panic and fear unfortunately.
Hope that David and the others who initially claimed “hoax” on this don’t just choke on their words, but also their Covid-19 induced vomit.
RE: Eastsider @ 2904 –
Do you own real estate? If you want to sell me real estate in Seattle, we should talk. Google Ardell’s contact and tell her you want to sell your assets to Erik on Seattle Bubble. I will pay a fair price if it’s something I can fit into my portfolio. Better to sell now than wait for prices to tank like you are saying.
Predictions on how much Seattle housing will drop in 2020-2021? 10%? 20%? 30%? Lots of wealth destruction in the last two weeks and mortgage rates are actually going up. Boeing, Expedia, Starbucks are going to continue the bloodbath.
I don’t see how these events would be positive for housing locally. Cancellations of sales are happening and it makes matters more complicated with owners who have purchased contingent on their own home selling (either locally or out of state.)
Interesting read on interest rates: https://www.thetruthaboutmortgage.com/so-much-for-the-record-low-mortgage-rates/
RE: S-Crow @ 2930 –
Are you able to elaborate on the cancellations at all? Do you mean pending offers are being withdrawn or literal sales being canceled? What typically are the reasons for such?
By Intsokzen @ 2929:
Geroge Gammon is a lot smarter than most financial analysts, and I stand by his prediction of 30-40% haircut in Seattle in the next two years, and then up to 70% when interest rates reverse up sharply due to the insolvency of the US and crash in the dollar. He predicted the massive liquidity injections like today and the fact that they would make matters worse. It seems a lot of people on this site did not understand a liquidity crisis and what it does to the housing sector no matter how low the mortgage rates may be.
RE: DavidE @ 2933 –
Amazon is a strong anchor though, will cushion somewhat. I don’t see 40% or 70% drop.
By DavidE @ 2933:
I don’t know this George guy, but the minute people start throwing out numbers like that (eg. up to 70%, 30-40%) shows me that he doesn’t know what he’s talking about. I can confidently say that prices can drop between 1% – 99% in the short term, and then claim I was right if they dropped 5% and say “i told you so.” Way too early to make doomsday predictions, he’s obviously looking for clicks and subscribers.
RE: S-Crow @ 2930 –
I’m looking to buy more Seattle real estate right now. If you come across someone that needs to sell right now at a reduced price, please get a hold of Ardell and tell her I said I’d buy.
RE: Erik @ 2928 –
You should save your cash. You will need it if the market goes south and stays south for a couple years. Good luck!
RE: Eastsider @ 2937 –
Thank you for the advice. Do you have anything you need to offload right now? I’m buying, and I’m willing to help get people out from under their mortgages. I’m looking for distressed sales always. I’m not bluffing. We can work it through Ardell. It would be a seamless transaction. If you know anyone that needs to sell, again please get a hold of ardell and say you want to sell to Erik on Seattle Bubble.
RE: Intsokzen @ 2934 –
Maybe, maybe not. Amazon is still primarily a consumer retail company and that’s going to be impacted if we go into an economic recession (which seems very likely right now, even if only for a short while).
For both Microsoft and Amazon, IT spending is likely to be slashed if there is a prolonged recession and companies large and small need to reduce expenses. This impacts cloud transition which are the golden geese for both.
Maybe Amazon uses this as an opportunity to shift more of the workforce to HQ2 and leave Seattle behind. With the tremendously high cost of living in Seattle, extremely poor infrastructure, horrible public health management, and political ineptness, I would be contemplating if I were Bezos. But it’s easy to think about and much, much harder to actually do, so I’m not saying it WILL happen.
Bottom line no one really knows. Holding off on selling your house because you’re hoping prices will climb ever higher and also waiting to buy because you’re hoping prices get chopped in half could both end up being ‘waiting for Godot’ scenarios.
Good luck to everyone.
By Joe @ 2926:
Boeing should be broken up into multiple companies.
RE: Brianna @ 2938 –
Mortgage rates are spiking because nobody wants to buy mortgage bonds. Stocks, bonds (debt), oil, gold, cryptocurrency, everything is being sold off and falling in price. And therefore mortgage rates are rising, too.
Not only that, but the spread between 10Y treasuries yields and 30Y mortgage interest is rapidly increasing. I think I warned about that before ;-).
Quicken loans says
30-Year Fixed
4.25%
(4.523% APR)
RE: S-Crow @ 2937 –
In my regular redfin emails for my search areas, I just saw 2 homes go back on the market after going pending.
Here’s one: https://www.redfin.com/WA/Maple-Valley/25715-212th-Ave-SE-98038/home/371360
Here’s the other: https://www.redfin.com/WA/Maple-Valley/25423-SE-244th-St-98038/home/375600
It’s very unusual given how hot the market was going into this Spring. I wonder if this is because of the uncertainty related to the coronavirus.
Crickets or Nuclear winter?
RE: Joe @ 2928 –
“I’m scaling back into the market with an expectation stocks will drop 50-70% over the next two years. I had a lot of money in CDs and gold, which worked out well, but this money needs to be SLOWLY deployed in the stock market.”
The problem is that now we have the Robinhood traders who are using their stimulus checks to gamble in the stock market. Does anyone seriously believe that Tesla, a company that is losing money, is worth more than Toyota, or all the major German cars companies combined? None of them has any idea about valuation. It is all about the Fed Put.
These people now feel smart, and invincible (including some regular posters here). They have seen how their lack of prudence is being rewarded by the current system while the productive workers have to support them. This has led to societal collapse many times before in history due to misallocation of debt and productive resources.
Is this for real, or another SNL skit, or episode of CrazyLand?
—
Aug 13
@MarkDice:
Reportedly in Seattle.
Black Lives Matter mob demands White people move out of neighborhood and
give their homes to black people.
https://twitter.com/MarkDice/status/1294076760078684160