NWMLS: New listings dry up as home prices plateau

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The NWMLS published their August stats yesterday, so let’s take a look at how the month shook out for the housing market.

As we mentioned in yesterday’s preview post, the biggest story is a sudden, renewed shortage of inventory.

Before we get into our detailed monthly stats, here’s a quick look at their press release.

Home Buyers Seeking Affordability Are Expanding Search Outside Greater Seattle Job Centers

Depleted inventory continues to frustrate would-be buyers in Western Washington. Many of these potential homeowners are expanding their search beyond the major job centers in King County, according to market watchers who commented on the latest statistics from Northwest Multiple Listing Service.

“While August is always a slower time for listings and sales, what is really surprising this year is the decrease in new listings taken, while pending sales increased,” observed Mike Grady, president and COO of Coldwell Banker Bain.

Multiple offers are still commonplace with many buyers walking away disappointed, according to Wilson. “Traffic is strong at open houses and our average market time is still very low for correctly priced homes,” he added.

“The August numbers offered a few interesting nuggets,” stated OB Jacobi, president of Windermere Real Estate. “The Seattle area housing market is still coming off the ‘sugar high’ that we saw last summer, but homes sales and prices are stabilizing, which is reassuring to both buyers and sellers.”

Quick note: According to data from Redfin, multiple offers are far from “commonplace” now. In August fewer than 10 percent of offers in the Seattle area faced competition. (Disclosure: Tim works for Redfin.)

However, new listings are indeed way down. Let’s get into the data to quantify the drop.

CAUTION

NWMLS monthly reports include an undisclosed and varying number of
sales from previous months in their pending and closed sales statistics.

Here’s your King County SFH summary, with the arrows to show whether the year-over-year direction of each indicator is favorable or unfavorable news for buyers and sellers (green = favorable, red = unfavorable):

August 2019 Number MOM YOY Buyers Sellers
Active Listings 4,194 -4.7% -10.1%
Closed Sales 2,531 -3.9% +6.1%
SAAS (?) 1.11 -4.8% -22.9%
Pending Sales 2,623 -10.1% +7.9%
Months of Supply 1.66 -0.7% -15.3%
Median Price* $670,000 -1.5% +0.1%

Here’s the graph of inventory with each year overlaid on the same chart.

King County SFH Inventory

Inventory fell five percent from July to August. During the same period a year ago, inventory rose 12 percent. The 10 percent year-over-year drop in inventory is the biggest decline we’ve seen since January 2018.

Here’s the chart of new listings:

King County SFH New Listings

New listings were down 10 percent from July to August, and were down 18 percent from a year ago. Only 2011 and 2012 saw fewer new listings in August than we had in 2019.

Here’s your closed sales yearly comparison chart:

King County SFH Closed Sales

Closed sales fell four percent between July and August, and were up six percent from last year. Closed sales have been in a fairly tight range between about 2,400 and 2,800 in August every year since 2013, and this year fell right in the middle of that range at 2,531.

King County SFH Pending Sales

Pending sales fell 10 percent month-over-month but were up eight percent year-over-year.

Here’s the supply/demand YOY graph. “Demand” in this chart is represented by closed sales, which have had a consistent definition throughout the decade (unlike pending sales from NWMLS).

King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY

The good news for buyers with respect to housing supply was short-lived. Supply is back in the red.

Here’s the median home price YOY change graph:

King County SFH YOY Price Change

Home prices dipped a bit last month, but not by as much as they did this time last year, so we ended up back in the black year-over-year, just barely.

And lastly, here is the chart comparing King County SFH prices each month for every year back to 1994 (not adjusted for inflation).

King County SFH Prices

August 2019: $670,000
August 2018: $669,000
July 2007: $481,000 (previous cycle high)

Here’s the article about these numbers from the Seattle Times: The market’s chilled out, but Seattle home prices still too hot for many first-time buyers

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About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. Tim also hosts the weekly improv comedy sci-fi podcast Dispatches from the Multiverse.

541 comments:

  1. 501
    formerSeattleite says:

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/california-governor-signs-statewide-rent-control-law-2019-10-08?mod=MW_home_top_stories

    So, is there a general consensus of how this affects real estate prices? Will this cause home prices to sky rocket, stay the same, or go down as a direct result of this?

  2. 502
    Justme says:

    RE: Whatsmyname @ 499 – \

    LOL. Your usage of infer was also called out at freedictionary.com as a “usage problem”. You have an ongoing problem with applying flowery language and incorrect phrases, trying to sound important. That’s my inference.

    From reference:

    Infer
    Not to be confused with:
    imply – signify or mean; to suggest: Her words imply a lack of caring.

    3. (Usage Problem) To indicate indirectly; imply.

  3. 503
    Justme says:

    RE: uwp @ 500

    Oh, I see. Uwp is hoping for higher prices so that he can buy house #2 at a higher price. Yes, that makes a lot of sense. NOT! Why is his search just “warming up”? The prices had fallen too much from the May 2018 peak, and you felt like it would be to cheap to buy one?

    >>this could be the last good chance to score our “move-up” house.

    Jeez, when was the previous good chance, one might ask? Why did you not buy then?

    Conclusion: Uwp is talking nonsense, but for a reason: He wants YOU to bid up the price on his already overpriced house. He’s not going to buy another one at peak levels. If he claims to do so, he should prove it.

    Uwp, you are as illogical as your bubble-wife Whatshername. You two are the tag-team of bubble-mongering propaganda illogic. Nobody should follow the advice of these clowns.

    PS: How is your famed “helping the millenials get a house” project going?

  4. 504

    The California Rent Control is a 5% CAP Plus Inflation

    What effect will this have on Seattle home prices? I see little or no change now. But if the CAP came to Seattle I’m sure it will dampen landlord clout and and buying frenzy in low vacancy areas with high rent and property tax increases. Older “money pit” neighborhoods needing “continuous museum home type”remodeling and large rent increases to pay for it will feel the sucker punch too IMO.

    Take off your winter parka, put the ice scraper in the glove compartment, you’ve arrived through the 35 degree morning fog to your offices for a cup of Yuban: BTW, Yuban is $6.88 for the 38 ounce Jumbo Sized can at WINCO…LOL…time to scan the:

    The Seattle Times
    MORNING BRIEF
    Wednesday, October 9, 2019
    Asa Palagi, 25, and Patricia Palagi, 81
    The divide between new and old Seattle is more complicated than it seems
    Patricia Palagi, 81, is a Seattle transplant who has voted for socialist City Councilmember Kshama Sawant. Her grandson, Asa Palagi, 25, says he’s “the opposite of grandma,” but they enjoy talking about the issues together. These two voters illustrate how the “new Seattle” and “old Seattle” stereotypes skip over key perspectives that will matter in the Nov. 5 election. And here’s where you can compare City Council candidates and watch them debate. (Photo: Steve Ringman / The Seattle Times)
    NEED TO KNOW
    Severe wildfire danger has millions of Californians in the dark. A major utility this morning began shutting down power to parts of 34 counties to reduce the worst fire risks the state has seen. Schools are closed and major cities are affected, including Oakland, San Jose and Berkeley. In some places, outages could last several days. Here’s a Q&A on the effects.

    On your ballot: Opponents of Tim Eyman’s car-tab Initiative 976 are focusing on how its cuts would hit roads, bridges and buses. Getting less attention: the billions of dollars Sound Transit could lose, a close look at the initiative shows. Meanwhile, a Seattle foundation has given big bucks to the campaign for Referendum 88, which would reinstate affirmative action.

    Snow, snow, snow … It fell in heaps overnight on Stevens and Snoqualmie passes, and broke a 38-year-old record as it downed power lines in Spokane. In Western Washington, we have some chilly nights ahead.

    The White House has declared a halt to any cooperation with the impeachment probe. This sets up a constitutional clash that could have sweeping consequences, and the Constitution didn’t exactly come with an instruction manual on impeachment. Here’s what it says about who can do what. (By the way, the folks who are calling impeachment proceedings a “kangaroo court” presided over by a “malicious Captain Kangaroo” have gotten their phrasing all mixed up.)
    Enjoy Morning Brief? Then you’ll love full digital access. Help us continue to bring you the news you care about, now. Subscribe to The Seattle Times for just $1 to start.

    SUBSCRIBE TODAY
    SEATTLE SKETCHER
    Sketch of Monorail Espresso
    Check out one of Seattle’s tiniest and cutest coffeehouses, located in a grand downtown building. There’s a story behind the name of the company, which has plans to grow. (Gabriel Campanario / The Seattle Times)

    Russell Wilson’s numbers are so fun to think about these days. Five standout stats reveal plenty about Wilson and the Hawks so far. While we’re counting, here are five things to know about the Seahawks’ next opponent, the Cleveland Browns. Meanwhile, ex-Hawk Richard Sherman has a weird feud going with the Browns’ quarterback.

    The man who brought us the insanely popular Halo franchise has a new project. Harold Ryan’s ProbablyMonsters is out to disrupt the game industry.

    A strange, compelling theater production has Christians confronting damnation — with a twist. Dropping the performance into actual churches around Seattle has a disorienting effect.

    Dick’s Sporting Goods turned $5 million worth of guns into scrap metal after 17 people were gunned down at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School. Chief Executive Ed Stack is talking about how a “need to stand up and say something” drove a decision that cost his company a quarter of a billion dollars.
    Provided by Sound Pain Solutions
    Numb feet. Sharp pain in the hands. A fuzzy feeling in the extremities. Neuropathy can cause extreme sensitivity to the touch. Despite claims that there’s nothing you can do about it, these newly approved therapies offer relief.
    WORTH A READ
    Double whammy for Boeing: American Airlines has pushed out the return of its 737 MAX jets until January while it waits out delays in Boeing submitting its final software fixes to the FAA. And Russian carrier Aeroflot has canceled its order for 22 Dreamliners, which is cause for concern in Everett.

    Turkish troops today began invading Syria after President Donald Trump’s move to pull American troops out unleashed a flood of criticism. Trump this morning defended his decision to step back from Syrian Kurds, longtime U.S. allies. Here’s a look at who’s involved in this conflict and what they want.

    A high school is a “slave ship”? The racial imbalances in Seattle’s gifted program should be addressed, but zapping the program entirely “seems both knee-jerk and self-defeating,” columnist Danny Westneat writes. He has some different ideas on what should happen.

    Dreaming of the weekend: How about starting your Saturday with pumpkin pancakes, or perhaps wandering in a sea of red and gold leaves? This weekend’s top happenings include fall fests in Carnation and at the Seattle Japanese Garden.

    A winery with a pie-focused menu … oh my. Elsom Cellars in Sodo has been drawing customers in with delectable pairings and its intriguing Adventure Pie. And if you’ve never had a momo, you might want to try the juicy little flavor-bomb dumplings, which can be found in Lake Forest Park. (Is it lunchtime yet?)
    Produced by Advertising Publications
    Being on “Jeopardy!” is like a job interview. Seattle writer Amy Swanson King appeared on the show last summer, and says it prepared her for interviews in the real-world workplace – and making up words like “herbivoregon.”
    EDITORIAL/OPINION
    Renton voters should elect attorney Kim-Khahn Van to City Council Position 7, The Seattle Times editorial board writes. As a first-generation immigrant from Vietnam, Van can be a strong voice to develop Renton’s sense of inclusion. And Ryan McIrvin deserves to be re-elected to Position 4 in November. He has emerged as an effective voice for meeting the city’s housing and transportation needs.

    TODAY’S WEATHER
    Sunny, but brrrrrr! High 52. Low 36. Sunrise 7:19. Sunset 6:33.

    SWE’s Take:

    BTW, “whistle blowers” uncovering Boeing Plane defects are not a legal reason to attack Boeing without additional backup evidence from a known source and a clear match to root “safety” cause with Boeing defense presenting its case too….its kangaroo court evidence as an unknown source, not real until clarified with details and backup by both Defendant and Prosecutor. Same with impeachment, ask any attorney.

    I thought the Kurds were in Iraq, not Syria? Wherever the Hades they are, let’s take care of the gun violence and mental illness that causes it America First…then get monetary help from the EU before we get stuck with their Syria police bills…solving their refugee OVERPOPULATION after we solve our own is all we can afford. The war monger Never Trumper GOP disagrees with me, but I’d think the liberals would love less war mongering in endless wars…I guess not?

    Hey my home went up 3% for 2020 property taxes assessments, that’s $500/mo folks, that should cover the “museum piece home maintenance” per year and still leave you with no elbow room for property tax increases and rent CAPs…LOL…pity the landlord in 1920 areas of Seattle. But still, the 3% increase is better than a kick in the pants, and I’m the low tier price group that’s still going up and mine was built in 1991…LOL

  5. 505

    Time to Log Off for About an Hour and Pretend You’re Busy Anyway

    MSFT just announced on my laptop with business S/W I have more endless patches to install, now its twice a week? What’s in those patches anyway? Doorways to infect MALWARE into your laptops? LOL

    MSFT always lends a helping hand for work productivity…..not…

  6. 506
    richard says:

    By Justme @ 503:

    RE: uwp @ 500

    Uwp, you are as illogical as your bubble-wife Whatshername.

    haha

  7. 507
    Sfrz says:

    @theTim congrats on your Shiba puppy! A great addition to the family.

  8. 508
    whatsmyname says:

    By Justme @ 502:

    “LOL. Your usage of infer was also called out at freedictionary.com as a “usage problem”. You have an ongoing problem with applying flowery language and incorrect phrases, trying to sound important. That’s my inference.”

    My usage is the first definition that I mentioned – “To involve by logical necessity; entail: ‘Socrates argued that a statue inferred the existence of a sculptor ‘”. My statement parallels in that we logically conclude that if you remove a lot of high end sales, the median (midpoint in the range) will shift down without any price reductions. This is not a hint, nor is it indirect. You ignored this entirely.

    I anticipated you were caught in some OCD obsession with “imply”, so I handed you part of the source statement regarding common usage, and the fact that it is accepted, understood, even put into the definition when transitive. Not preferred is not the same as not correct, Mr. Pot. Implication was that if you hadn’t already been wrong of the first point; you would be wrong on this one.

    Also, I wouldn’t expect anyone to find my vocabulary impressive, complicated or important sounding, (present company excluded). I think you’ve got a problem with projection. Do you feel important nitpicking English on a real estate blog? Is this compensation for being dead wrong on the real estate part? Guess what: you’re dead wrong here too.

    “From reference:
    Infer
    Not to be confused with:
    imply – signify or mean; to suggest: Her words imply a lack of caring.”

    My reference is pretty extensive in the contrast, but basically it comes down to deduction and conclusion vs suggestion and indirectness. This “Not to be confused with” is not in the reference that I quoted. I think it’s placement in your message is simple dishonesty. It’s almost like we’re talking real estate.

  9. 509
    Any says:

    Bay Area prices still falling despite the crazy low unemployment and crazy low rates. What happens when either or both start to normalize?

    https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/local/Bay-Area-Home-Prices-See-Gradual-Drop-562226991.html

    Anecdotally, I noticed recently while looking at Bay Area sales that a seemingly large % of the pending sales are contingent. Obviously that’s night and day different to what you would have seen a few years ago, so what does it mean? Obviously buyers have less liquidity, fewer cash buyers. But what else?

  10. 510
    richard says:

    very good talk about housing market, must see
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GFkkN2M3Y3c

  11. 511
    Erik says:

    RE: Any @ 509
    Ha! You are 5 years behind

  12. 512

    When Moisture Clouds Meet This 32 Degree Morning Ice

    Its too early to install the studded tires and chains, you will need gloves [ski mask too?] and a heavy winter coat this morning, snow accumulation next week? So give up and gulp down a Yuban while reading the:

    The Seattle Times
    MORNING BRIEF
    hursday, October 10, 2019

    A man who tried to kidnap his ex-girlfriend led officers on a high-speed chase from Bellevue to Renton and Seattle yesterday, police say. Video shows how the chase ended with a terrifying experience for the driver of a minivan he tried to carjack.

    A “great deal of rot” caused the collapse of 26 Seattle City Light poles in Tukwila in April, an outside investigation has concluded. The collapse, captured on video, crushed a car and sent two people to the hospital. Seattle City Light says it’s trying to make changes quickly.
    Enjoy Morning Brief? Then you’ll love full digital access. Help us continue to bring you the news you care about, now. Subscribe to The Seattle Times for just $1 to start.

    SUBSCRIBE TODAY

    WHAT WE’RE TALKING ABOUT
    “We couldn’t breathe … the aircraft snapped into a rapid roll.” A new book by the captain who landed Southwest Airlines’ only fatal flight describes how close the Boeing 737 came to complete disaster when debris tore apart an engine last year. One passenger died after she was nearly sucked out of a window. Meanwhile, more than 5% of older 737 jets that recently underwent urgent inspections will be grounded after cracks were found in what’s known as the “pickle fork.”

    Keep your fuzzy hat handy, because Seattle-area residents will be shivering a bit longer before we return to “unsettled” weather. But clear skies mean a chance to see the Draconid meteor shower tonight. Meanwhile, Spokane is digging out from the surprise snowstorm that cut power to more than 30,000 homes.

    A homeless woman’s $1 trailer touched off a storm in West Seattle. Briar Rose Williams bought it and parked it — in front of the home of a Seattle city council member, coincidentally. That touched off a frenzy of speculation about whether it was an activist’s political stunt, and Williams returned to find a vandalized mess.

    About 1.3 million school kids are homeless in the U.S., a 70% increase in the last decade. Students struggle to learn when basic needs aren’t met. Here’s the impact on Seattle public school students and what’s being done to help.
    WORTH A READ
    Frustrations are erupting in a darkened California, with angry residents sounding off and police reporting that a bullet was fired at a Pacific Gas & Electric Co. vehicle amid the state’s biggest planned power outage ever. Wineries are in the dark at a crucial time: harvest. And the outage, meant to prevent wildfires, means problems for electric-car owners.

    Flash bangs and a gunshot rang out in a Federal Way store parking lot yesterday as a SWAT team cornered a suspect in the killing of a high-school student. Another suspect was arrested without incident in the death of Juan Carlos Con Guzman, 16, whose body was found in the Green River last month.

    Any home built before 1978 is presumed to contain lead, a toxic metal widely used in paint, pipes and finishes prior to a national ban. Ingested or breathed in, lead harms the brain, kidneys and other organs. Here are homeowners’ options.
    EDITORIAL/OPINION
    A partnership between Microsoft and the King County Housing Authority shows the sort of creativity and partnership that’s needed as the region works to address its shortage of affordable housing, writes The Seattle Times editorial board.
    LATEST LIFE STORIES

    What the hell? Christians debate damnation in the play ‘The Christians,’ performed in Seattle churches.
    Now streaming: ‘Toy Story 4,’ ‘El Camino: A Breaking Bad Movie,’ ‘Little Monsters’
    Enjoy the colors and activities of fall at festivals in Carnation and the Seattle Japanese Garden

    TODAY’S WEATHER
    Don’t be fooled by the sunshine. High 58. Low 39. Sunrise 7:20. Sunset 6:31.

    SWE’s take:

    The Chinese buffets are the best buy, but the sliced beef roasts chew like leather rawhide. If ya want a decent steak, find a a good bar that fries ’em…

    Those rotted power poles aren’t cheap, try about $20K a piece.

    1.3 million homeless kids mixed in with the normal kids? Check for lice weekly? TB checks of your kids a good idea now? How do the homeless shower, in an ice cold rest area sink? Do the homeless kids stink and wear dirty clothes? Sounds like we need tons of Foster Homes instead?

    i

  13. 513
    Justme says:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 508

    >>This “Not to be confused with” is not in the reference that I quoted.

    Anyone can see it for themselves at https://www.thefreedictionary.com/infer , and there it is. That’s the reference you used, dude. You just accused me of dishonesty, but it was YOU that was wrong. No Socrates for you!

  14. 514
    Whatsmyname says:

    RE: Justme @ 513 – Weird, the Mary Embree citation did not come up for me before. If you scroll down, you will see citations from multiple dictionaries saying something very different.

    Still, I was wrong on that fact.

  15. 515
    Erik says:

    Nice to see inventory dip below 4000 today.

    This market is primed for another bull run before the next bust. My guess is that trump closes the trade deal with China this winter and we have a beautiful price increase here in Seattle this spring.

  16. 516
    dariakus says:

    RE: Erik @ 515 – Beauty is in the eye of the beholder :)

  17. 517
    Erik says:

    RE: dariakus @ 516
    I just wanna see the people waiting on the sidelines waiting for the perfect moment get served a fat slice of humble pie. I’ve fought these fools on here and in real life since 2013. Some people just have zero grit, so they analyze real estate until they prove to themselves they shouldn’t buy. It’s hard to watch.

  18. 518

    RE: Erik @ 517
    Erik

    Your Baby Photo Needs a Change

    have it holding a a toy hammer with vigor…LOL

    Yep, Erik has grit alright, ya know ya have a much better chance to succeed when you imagine “win” at the end…the rest of the spineless lemming lambs pay full list price.

  19. 519

    In Seattle its Much Worse With Our High Rent and Low Wages With Growing Homelessness

    Its not 40% here but 60-70% of all workers totally stressed out in Seattle Squeeze traffic, lame jobs, defective outsourced manufacturing and H-1B replacement fears….

    https://www.studyfinds.org/perpetual-stress-four-in-ten-adults-close-to-breaking-point-at-work/

    Chill out with a bottle of Corona rotgut, the new version of Halo is out, grab it up, its only $80 a cartridge at Game Flop. Gobble your filling “meaty” Subway with a small paper candy container of measured meat, the rest mostly lettuce and bun.

  20. 520
    JustNoise says:

    Posted by The Tim on Redfin:

    https://www.redfin.com/blog/september-2019-real-estate-bidding-wars/?utm_source=Iterable&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=1011565&inquirySource=367

    “More sellers are pricing their homes a little below the price they expect to sell at, which is encouraging bidding wars to drive up price,” said Redfin San Jose agent Kimberly Douglas. “In addition to teaser pricing like this, I’ve seen very aggressive price drops happening more often lately.”

  21. 521
    Longtime Listener First Time Caller says:

    The only reason Erik posts here is to prove that hubris is a thing,

  22. 522
    Any says:

    “In nearby San Jose, 18 percent of offers faced competition in September, down from 83 percent a year earlier.”

    This number is pretty staggering. In Sept 2018, even as interest rates neared their peaks and home prices were higher than they are now, still competition on 83 percent of offers there.

    Now, with slightly lower prices and much lower rates, only 18 percent of offers facing competition for the same month. The demand is drying up in a big way in San Jose.

    And this is with employment as good as it can possibly be with an economy on a fast track to recession.

  23. 523
    Erik says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 518
    Ha! Will-do. I’ll take a picture of little man when he’s hungry for milk. That picture may scare some of the people on here. I can hear it now “Tim, Tim, Tim, Erik offended me with his hangry baby picture.”

  24. 524
    Erik says:

    RE: Longtime Listener First Time Caller @ 521
    The computer programmers on here tried hard to drag me down from 2010 until i had a success in 2013. They were unbelievably rude and hurtful. If you weren’t part of the code monkey beat down, I can see how you wouldn’t understand as you don’t have context.

  25. 525

    Time for a Cup of Yuban While Gobbling Down Your Addam’s Family Black Whip Cream Pancakes at a Denny’s Near You

    Its the same day late Friday copy you found free on the breakfast counter:

    The Seattle Times
    MORNING BRIEF
    Friday, October 11, 2019
    Seattle City Councilmember Lisa Herbold talks with Michael Cox and Briar Rose Williams
    ‘I’m really sorry those people threatened you’
    A story that kept unfolding yesterday captured how quickly the politics around Seattle homelessness can explode. When Briar Rose Williams and Michael Cox parked a $1 trailer near the home of Seattle City Councilmember Lisa Herbold, left, they landed in a firestorm. Before it was over, Williams would be threatened with a knife, the trailer vandalized, and a harsh spotlight cast on the couple, when all they wanted was a home. Now an activist who helped the story catch fire is trying to make things right. (Photo: Erika Schultz / The Seattle Times)
    NEED TO KNOW
    Weekend traffic alert: A quarter-million travelers will need to detour or cancel trips into Seattle this weekend. Construction at various times will block Highway 520, Highway 99 and Sound Transit light rail downtown. Check traffic before you go.

    Millions of retirees will get a pay bump from Social Security next year. But “money is buying less and less,” some retirees point out as they fault the way the increase is calculated. For the average retiree, the monthly raise would buy about four Big Mac Meals.

    “Please just pack up and leave now.” Multiple homes have been destroyed and fire officials are telling more than 100,000 people to flee a fast-moving blaze in Los Angeles County. Thousands more people could soon find themselves in the dark as California widens preventive power shutoffs that have already affected millions of people.

    More than half of Washington’s bird species face trouble as forests shrink, sea levels rise and the seasons warm, according to a new Audubon study. If climate change continues on its current trajectory, “we are talking about huge changes in all aspects of their life history,” says an Audubon Washington official.

    After days of record cold temperatures, we’re back to our regularly scheduled weather programming. But we should have enough of a break in the clouds to spy a big, orange hunter’s moon. Here’s the forecast and a little lesson for sky-watchers.
    Enjoy Morning Brief? Then you’ll love full digital access. Help us continue to bring you the news you care about, now. Subscribe to The Seattle Times for just $1 to start.

    SUBSCRIBE TODAY

    The fugitive sex offender who cut off his GPS tracker has been arrested in Enumclaw, “thanks to good old-fashioned police work,” the Pierce County Sheriff’s Office says.

    The $99 million Burke Museum finally opens tomorrow. Take a peek at the new, open, inside-out museum. Its opening is just one of the great things to do in the Seattle area this weekend. New restaurants, haunted houses, the mind-bending new Will Smith film and more await.

    Provided by City University of Seattle
    Turn local industry training into academic credit – hands-on experience provides a boost to workers entering a new job or field. Learn how adult learners and nontraditional students can apply valuable life experience toward a degree.
    WORTH A READ
    One King County councilmember’s challenger doesn’t want to win. Instead, he wants to shine a light on what he calls one of “the biggest transportation boondoggles in history.” Meanwhile, another councilmember faces an opponent who’s outraged about public safety. Here’s what you should know about the races in districts 6 and 8.

    “A very explosive team” is lurking behind the Huskies’ un-explosive stats, running back Salvon Ahmed says. Can that team emerge Saturday against Arizona? They won’t have Richard Newton, but there’s good news for the ailing running back.

    A teen came home from school to find his agitated dog in the driveway, broken glass on the porch and a godawful smell coming from inside. What he found made for “the most random story in the world” — and some wild photos, too. More Friday head-scratchers:

    Produced by Advertising Publications
    Hikes without crowds, leaf-peeping and the anticipation of winter sports are the pleasures that accompany the sudden cold. Warm up to it with fall jackets and boots – and a lightweight ski/bike helmet with a pre-installed speaker!
    EDITORIAL/OPINION
    The years of no progress toward a new I-5 bridge over the Columbia River must end. Commuters and long-haul travelers between Washington and Oregon require immediate attention to be paid to this massive infrastructure need, The Seattle Times editorial board writes.
    LATEST LIFE STORIES

    ‘The Addams Family’ review: a kooky but not-so-spooky animated feature
    Pianist Lang Lang, once dubbed ‘Bang Bang’ for his flashy technique, brings exquisite refinement to Seattle Symphony concert
    In his brilliant new book, Timothy Egan searches for faith in a secular world

    TODAY’S WEATHER
    Partly cloudy. High 64. Low 43. Sunrise 7:22. Sunset 6:29….”

    SWE’s Take:
    The Trump retirees’ Social Security went up about 2% in 2020, beats the 0% Obama used to gives us. Trump’s 2019bMedicare Part B is about stable YOY, Obama’s Part B monthly costs were like his ACA plan YOY monthly cost increase plans, horrifying.

    Hey, did the rolling blackouts stop the “alleged” cause of California homelessness camp fires starting wild fires?….nope, they’re back irrespective of that phony cause. mitigating the homelessness crisis.

    And stop blaming wild birth deaths on Climate Change:

    https://www.wildbirdscoop.com/cats-leading-cause-of-bird-deaths.html

    Its cats, glass structures, wind power blades, etc, etc…a plethora of likely causes.

  26. 526

    Average Joe Pay in Seattle, NYC, Kansas City, etc, etc is about $20/hr Per Job and Per Capita.

    “…Nationwide, renters need to earn $20.30 an hour to afford a modest two-bedroom apartment, according to the report, and $16.35 for a one-bedroom, without exceeding the 30% threshold. In other words, to afford the typical two-bedroom unit in the U.S., renters need to make 2.8 times the federal minimum wage of $7.25 an hour, and $4.88 more than the $15.42 the average U.S. renters earns. In 14 states and Washington D.C., the housing wage exceeds $20 for a two-bedroom apartment…”

    https://www.cheatsheet.com/culture/10-states-where-people-cant-really-afford-to-pay-rent.html/

    Sounds like about half the folks working in Seattle need homeless tents and camp fire gear while working…LOL

  27. 527
    Joe says:

    RE: Any @ 522

    As soon as a rational person senses home prices might go lower, the idea of leveraging out to buy a $1.5M asset loses its luster. You could lose $400k in a couple years, plus be stuck in a house you don’t even like.

    Why would anybody offer a competing bid for that opportunity?

  28. 528
    Justme says:

    Weekend update

    King County (Seattle+suburbs) SFR housing inventory: Buyers and sellers both being stupid: Buyers, you should wait for lower prices. Sellers, you should sell NOW rather than waste valuable time on refinancing. Higher mortgage rates and lower prices coming. #seattlebubble

    https://twitter.com/coqumragep279/status/1183087340224335872

  29. 529
    Erik says:

    RE: Justme @ 528
    Trump just made a deal with China. He cites technology and Boeing as beneficiaries of the deal.

    Hold onto your Seattle real estate! We are about to see another price bump.

  30. 530
    Any says:

    RE: Erik @ 529

    Lol @ believing Trump. He’s been manipulating the market for months. The only thing they’ve really agreed on so far is that China will buy some beans and the Oct 15th tariffs won’t go into effect. When asked about the deal Mnuchin repeatedly said “we understand the key issues but there is still much work to do.” They’ve made almost no progress in 1.5 years. China will wait for Trump to get impeached and hope the next POTUS is fine going back to the former (crappy) status quo without much hassle.

  31. 531
    Erik says:

    RE: Any @ 530
    Okay, I’m going to believe because he’s been right all the other times. We’ll see how it shakes out, but I’m buying more real estate.

  32. 532
    Any says:

    Lol @ “He’s been right all the other times.”

  33. 533

    RE: Erik @ 531
    It Looks Like the Best Real Estate to Buy From the Phase I Chinese Trade Deal is Midwest Farmland and Invest in Tractor Stock

    The deal includes like a $50B increase in farm foods [soy I assume?] to China as American exports. John Deere stock looks good now….LOL….fertilizers and diesel oil too. Yes, this could spread to Seattle too, more business travel and office computer needs.

    I was in Wisconsin and the real estate for farmland has lots of turn-over with small profit farms folding…grab up some short sell “raw land” before the buffoons figure it out….

  34. 534

    Seattle Real Estate Price Hikes are Boosted by Lower Cost Healthcare, of Course It Is

    But Hades will freeze over before the Open Border Party lifts a finger on upgrading the ACA price monster, they’re afraid if the economy improves with Congress support, Trump will get elected in 2020 because things are even better, so they purposely stall on health care reforms.

    I was reading Michael Crichton’s non-fiction “Five Patients” [1969] and the health care crisis then was for the same reasons. [ref page 64 of the book] as 2019:

    1. Private Insurance [Blue Cross, etc] was labeled the cost reason and efforts to eliminate it for cheaper insurance forced the numbers of doctors to shrink drastically.

    2. The AMA wanted Medicare eliminated and encouraged Big Pharma price hikes on prescriptions.

    3. The AMA pushed worthless cures too, like Opioids, useless tests, endless useless shots, etc, etc….Crichton call these “Blind Spots”…

    The astounding errors in judgement occurred in 1969 like 2019…but we can’t agree on the fix without Congress getting its act together, NOW.

    4. The technological breakthrough in televised checkups and computerized office visits was far more advanced in 1969 than 2019 IMO….Bioengineering and Raw Data limits can DRASTICALLY automate medical costs and eliminate the need for doctor and nurses needed on payrolls. Why have we been eliminating “wide-spread” American Hospital Bioengineering influence [we outsource most all it now] instead of encouraging it? We’re buffoons. 1969 had an advantage over today, we relied less on useless data collection computer direction contraptions and more on the engineering safety factor and their understanding.

  35. 535
    Erik says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 533
    That sounds like a good plan SWE and I’d love to be that bold. I’ve never bought long distance real estate although I’d love to add that to my tool box. Do update me on how it goes flipping farmland.

    Here’s my plan… Buy 20 rentals in the city of Seattle. Rent them until the prices double. Sell 10 and buy the other 10 outright. Then I’ll meet SWE for coffee in Kent and we can talk about how nice it is living on guaranteed income. I may even join toastmasters with you.

  36. 536

    I See Gasoline at the Pump Rose About 30 cent/gal the Last Week

    The regular is $3.19/gal at Fred Meyer now.

    Add to this cost increase the “one way” tunnel toll charge from your average Joe pay checks:

    “… $1 to $2.25 with a Good To Go! pass depending on time of day…”

    Skip lunch out and bring cheap peanut butter and jelly sandwiches from home as replacements….even a single patty at Wendy’s means forking out $5 for a bite to eat….tighten the budget belts, we still have old Kingdome bills left to pay too….

    I love Seattle’s taxation, but imagine the extra traffic pouring onto I-5 Seattle to avoid the toll charge….”Super Seattle Squeeze”, at a theater near you this Thanksgiving…saw the same thing on I-405 when they tolled the Lake Washington Bridge too.

  37. 537

    RE: Erik @ 535
    I Learned Something Yesterday Reading Crichton [Harvard Medical Doctor BTW]

    History and today are more similar than we think. Hades, we’ve heard the farmers scream for starvation subsidies due to poor business decisions for decades now, and the foreclosures of farmlands has been going on for decades too. Its always a good time to richen your portfolio. Why wait? The buffoons pay list price and cry later…

    We had a more “hands-on” approach to technology [new inventions besides miniaturization of decades old “regurgitated” inventions]…our average IQs were 40 points higher than now too. The “Poptart” college graduates with no manufacturing job experience are just as useless as medical “Poptart” student interns trying to replace safety limit engineering understanding of medical practice efficiencies. Ask SWE about pick lines and nurse/doctor employment needs decreasing way down as we get it right the first time with “just a few” experienced engineers on the hospitals’ board. The solution gold ring is there, just grab it. I helped invent ultrasound insertion of picklines in the mid 90s. Its now a recognized science in nursing today. I’m just one volunteer Bioengineer, imagine a thousand of us “on board” repairing the medical devise field.

  38. 538
    Deerhawke says:

    Back from a vacation with family in Ireland. The news is similar to here in so many ways.

    Lots of talk about Brexit and the many ways Trump-mini-me Boris Johnson is going to
    – collapse the English economy leading to the end of the term Great Britain
    – further strengthen the Irish economy
    – assist in the process of Irish unification

    Kind of hard to see how the conservatives, the party of Churchill, could go along with Boris’s stupidity. But then again it is hard to see how the Republicans, the party of Lincoln and Reagan, could go along with Trump’s stupidity.

    The other big topic was the dramatic rise in the cost of housing and what to do about it.

    All the tech and fintech firms have been moving in, building and hiring. Rents have been skyrocketing. Lots of talk about rent control, but the government seems to understand this is a short term solution that creates to a huge long term problem. They are promising more public housing after paying the costs for dealing with Brexit.

  39. 539

    RE: Deerhawke @ 538
    You Support EU [German] control with Germany getting all its natural gas from Russia?

    EU’s refusal to pay their fair share of NATO and the Syria refugee problem with the Kurds? Hades the Kurds lived in Iraq, now they moved to Syria? Why? Are they a Hollywood act of poor folk phonies that moves to war torn Syria from Iraq to seek EU asylum and American NATO money?

    When did Deerhawke become a war monger for endless Middle East wars? LOL, did this occur just after Trump was elected? Just curious, you liberals are usually against the WAR MONGERS. Why are you for endless wars now?

  40. 540
    Justme says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 538

    Wow, that was more convoluted than usual. Everybody, let’s have a little contest. Please fill in the blanks and see if you can help me understand

    _________ is to Seattle as Brexit is to Great Britain
    _________ is to Seattle as Brexit is to Ireland (if you prefer)

    Go.

  41. 541
    whatsmyname says:

    By softwarengineer @ 539:

    EU’s refusal to pay their fair share of NATO and the Syria refugee problem with the Kurds? Hades the Kurds lived in Iraq, now they moved to Syria? Why? Are they a Hollywood act of poor folk phonies that moves to war torn Syria from Iraq to seek EU asylum and American NATO money?

    When did Deerhawke become a war monger for endless Middle East wars? LOL, did this occur just after Trump was elected? Just curious, you liberals are usually against the WAR MONGERS. Why are you for endless wars now?

    The Kurds are 20 million- 30 million people. They have lived in their territory which is now included in parts of Iraq, Iran, Syria, Turkey, and Armenia for more than a thousand years before those nation states’ borders were imposed on them. They are not moving around for NATO money. Survival will likely dictate they align with Russia’s ally Assad against NATO member Turkey. It’s a great day for Putin.

    When did software engineer decide uneasy standoffs are war mongering perpetual war, but bombings of women and children are not? Is this a final solution kind of thing?

    By the way, it’s true that the Kurds may not have been with us at Normandy, but you can bet that relatives of your Fuehrer were there. Well, not with us exactly. But they were there; shooting from their emplacements, so what the hey.

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