NWMLS: New listings dry up as home prices plateau

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The NWMLS published their August stats yesterday, so let’s take a look at how the month shook out for the housing market.

As we mentioned in yesterday’s preview post, the biggest story is a sudden, renewed shortage of inventory.

Before we get into our detailed monthly stats, here’s a quick look at their press release.

Home Buyers Seeking Affordability Are Expanding Search Outside Greater Seattle Job Centers

Depleted inventory continues to frustrate would-be buyers in Western Washington. Many of these potential homeowners are expanding their search beyond the major job centers in King County, according to market watchers who commented on the latest statistics from Northwest Multiple Listing Service.

“While August is always a slower time for listings and sales, what is really surprising this year is the decrease in new listings taken, while pending sales increased,” observed Mike Grady, president and COO of Coldwell Banker Bain.

Multiple offers are still commonplace with many buyers walking away disappointed, according to Wilson. “Traffic is strong at open houses and our average market time is still very low for correctly priced homes,” he added.

“The August numbers offered a few interesting nuggets,” stated OB Jacobi, president of Windermere Real Estate. “The Seattle area housing market is still coming off the ‘sugar high’ that we saw last summer, but homes sales and prices are stabilizing, which is reassuring to both buyers and sellers.”

Quick note: According to data from Redfin, multiple offers are far from “commonplace” now. In August fewer than 10 percent of offers in the Seattle area faced competition. (Disclosure: Tim works for Redfin.)

However, new listings are indeed way down. Let’s get into the data to quantify the drop.

CAUTION

NWMLS monthly reports include an undisclosed and varying number of
sales from previous months in their pending and closed sales statistics.

Here’s your King County SFH summary, with the arrows to show whether the year-over-year direction of each indicator is favorable or unfavorable news for buyers and sellers (green = favorable, red = unfavorable):

August 2019 Number MOM YOY Buyers Sellers
Active Listings 4,194 -4.7% -10.1%
Closed Sales 2,531 -3.9% +6.1%
SAAS (?) 1.11 -4.8% -22.9%
Pending Sales 2,623 -10.1% +7.9%
Months of Supply 1.66 -0.7% -15.3%
Median Price* $670,000 -1.5% +0.1%

Here’s the graph of inventory with each year overlaid on the same chart.

King County SFH Inventory

Inventory fell five percent from July to August. During the same period a year ago, inventory rose 12 percent. The 10 percent year-over-year drop in inventory is the biggest decline we’ve seen since January 2018.

Here’s the chart of new listings:

King County SFH New Listings

New listings were down 10 percent from July to August, and were down 18 percent from a year ago. Only 2011 and 2012 saw fewer new listings in August than we had in 2019.

Here’s your closed sales yearly comparison chart:

King County SFH Closed Sales

Closed sales fell four percent between July and August, and were up six percent from last year. Closed sales have been in a fairly tight range between about 2,400 and 2,800 in August every year since 2013, and this year fell right in the middle of that range at 2,531.

King County SFH Pending Sales

Pending sales fell 10 percent month-over-month but were up eight percent year-over-year.

Here’s the supply/demand YOY graph. “Demand” in this chart is represented by closed sales, which have had a consistent definition throughout the decade (unlike pending sales from NWMLS).

King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY

The good news for buyers with respect to housing supply was short-lived. Supply is back in the red.

Here’s the median home price YOY change graph:

King County SFH YOY Price Change

Home prices dipped a bit last month, but not by as much as they did this time last year, so we ended up back in the black year-over-year, just barely.

And lastly, here is the chart comparing King County SFH prices each month for every year back to 1994 (not adjusted for inflation).

King County SFH Prices

August 2019: $670,000
August 2018: $669,000
July 2007: $481,000 (previous cycle high)

Here’s the article about these numbers from the Seattle Times: The market’s chilled out, but Seattle home prices still too hot for many first-time buyers

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About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. Tim also hosts the weekly improv comedy sci-fi podcast Dispatches from the Multiverse.

2,952 comments:

  1. 2251

    Why has this blog not been updated in 5 months? And there are the same posters arguing here the whole time. Sad!

  2. 2252

    RE: biliruben @ 2236
    Exactly billruben

    The avg investor doesn’t have the personality type to sell to the few buyers that qualify; we just don’t practice communication and/or psychology or get experienced at it. And it takes a lifetime of learning and much time too. I still go to Toastmasters for leadership training, but as everyone ages [even SWE…LOL] we get less capable of handling stress compared to when we were younger. Listening to depressed folks depresses the older folks [younger folks too BTW], but gets more difficult as time goes on. That’s why I seek positive and happy folks to spend my time with. Successful/happy folks cheer me up and believe me, finding a positive/happy friend in Seattle is VERY rare….my older friends are usually not in the “happy” group either [I rarely see them much lately]. I can be a psychologist and use this time/skill to get good profits/results, but as time goes on, its too draining to be worth it in Seattle. That’s why “Sunny” attracted me, any lady dressed in bright colorful garb [even her nails were colorful] singing and dancing in a Fred Meyer parking lot is a rare sight in any city….hey I found Waldo….LOL….she wanted a big hug when I first met her and took a selfie movie of our conversation and smiles. They’re out there, they’re just hard to find.

    Time to pick out your Valentine venue, I’d try a new place you haven’t visited before. Bali’s in Tukwila comes to mind, its expensive but the chef is renown. Their steaks are to die for…Time to read the brief Brief, fill your Yuban mugs and smile:

    “… Massive project to restore salmon gets new life For the first time in a century, salmon and steelhead could inhabit more than 100 miles of the Upper Green River watershed. This has been singled out by advocates as the biggest potential way to help the fish and the endangered orcas that feed on them. It’s getting a big boost with the reboot of a federal project to get fish past the Howard Hanson Dam. (Photo: Steve Ringman / The Seattle Times)..”

    SWE’s Take: I saw the Green River dam blockage mess to get salmon through and I’m not Core of Engineers Civil Engineer credentialed [either was the MSM “experts”]….but it looks like billions are needed and decades to build. We’re a 100 years too late IMO.

    “…Bernie Sanders has raised more money in Washington than any of his Democratic rivals. President Donald Trump, meanwhile, has already raised more in the state than he did in the entire 2016 campaign. Where is all that money coming from? Here’s who’s opening their wallets, and where the cash is flowing…”

    SWE’s Take: Trump’s “cash cow” impeachment campaign fund raising ended with impeachment ending; but Bloomberg is recently spending MASS cash and stealing Biden/Bernie votes IMO? Bloomberg or Mini-Mike is wasting his money? Trump never did spend much money to win in 2016 anyway.

    “…A judge has largely upheld the initiative to cut car-tab taxes, but don’t expect a lower bill just yet. The legal fight over voter-approved Initiative 976 isn’t over. If I-976 survives, it could deal a significant blow to transportation spending across Washington state…”

    SWE’s Take: Perhaps the DOT should focus on how much road projects are actually completed on time and on schedule, rather than how much “tab” money they can burn, like the Joker’s $CASH$ bonfire…LOL

    “…Two people were killed in a wrong-way crash that closed all southbound I-5 lanes near Olympia for more than five hours overnight. The freeway has reopened, but check traffic if you’re heading south (or anywhere, for that matter)…”

    SWE’s Take: Good thing it happened last night, did it affect the morning commute?

    “…Seattle should raise $300 million a year by taxing big businesses, City Councilmember Kshama Sawant says. She’s outlining her vision for which companies would be taxed — more than 800 of them — and where the money would go. Mayor Jenny Durkan is not a fan of the plan…”

    SWE’s take: Does that mean everyone’s taxes go up? Do you folks trust them?

    “…A baby who contracted a heart infection from Aspergillus mold at Seattle Children’s hospital has died. The family of Beth Hutt, who was almost 6 months old, is involved in a class-action lawsuit against Children’s over the recurring mold problems…”

    SWE’s Take: Turning your heat off during the work day likely causes much more indoor mold, especially the north side of the house/hospital. BTW, keeping the heat the same 7/24s reduces restart heating costs too.

    “…China added nearly 15,000 new coronavirus cases overnight to the tally in one province alone, after changing the way the illness is diagnosed. So far, most cases around the world have been mild — which makes scientists’ detective work harder…”

    SWE’s Take: Trump predicts the coronavirus dies out by April.

    “…”We can’t sell you that house.” Diane Sugimura remembers the rejections when her family moved to Seattle. Decades later, she’s helped design a Wing Luke Museum exhibit on Seattle’s discriminatory history of redlining. The exhibit’s message is relevant today, its writer says: “People are still fighting to stay in their homes, it just looks different.”…”

    SWE’s take: Bloomberg supported “redlining” in 2008 and its hurting him on the 2020 campaign trail.

    “…In 1979, the western half of the Hood Canal Bridge sinks during a severe storm with winds of 80-120 mph. Highway 104 connects the Kitsap Peninsula with the Olympic Peninsula, and is the world’s first floating pontoon bridge built over salt water and subject to tides. The western half of the bridge is rebuilt with heavier anchors, and it opens to traffic in October 1982. As a precaution, the bridge closes when winds reach 40 mph for 15 minutes…”

    SWE’s Take: Our current infrastructure was built decades ago on sinking sand.

    Good News: The Americans sick with Chinese coronavirus mostly didn’t die in America and are well now…the pictures of Chinese Socialistic Hospitals says it all….especially the crowded hallways with yellow Hazmat suits and helmets…body bags strewn about too…its OVERPOPULATED chaos folks. Medicare for all?? LOL

  3. 2253
    Bumble says:

    The Redfin January numbers are out. Here are some highlights for King County SFH.

    2019 Median Price: $610,000
    2020 Median Price: $645,000

    2019 Inventory: 2,606
    2020 Inventory: 1,169 (the lowest of any month in Redfin’s 2010-2020 data)

  4. 2254

    RE: Bumble @ 2245
    Is this a reason to sell or buy?

    Get the Hades out before the ax comes down hard? Or “old money” never goes dry? How can we predict either scenario with confidence? Crystal balls? LOL

    I’m glad I’ve left this “stress chaos”….time to just enjoy life and destress. My Glenbrook 140 unit modular HOA has “for sale” signs popping up suddenly all over [about 5-10% of ’em now], there was only a couple listed a year ago. Is this a good time to sell or buy? Using Erik’s and Deerhawke’s success record on “qualified buyers left” says perhaps a good time to buy? They have sales personalities and a “professional” success plan with milestones too…most of don’t know what the professional time/cost/experience that involves…LOL. That’s why I buy foreclosed for $CASH$, put hardly no money in them, then sell for easy low price “stress-free” profit. Win/win for both buyer and seller, but SWE’s lazy now…LOL. I was an village idiot for not grabbing up the Glenbrook $99K unit in 2017 that went up to $288K listing in 2018. That “Waldo” foreclosure purchase I missed…LOL…my vulture eyes need new glasses?

  5. 2255
    Boater says:

    By Blake @ 2232:

    RE: David @ 2230
    Ummm… THIS is why you might want to sell your stocks now!
    https://twitter.com/Laurie_Garrett/status/1227464224445734917?s=19

    I’m shorting the S&P this week. China cannot contain this thing!

    Here’s how I look at it. If it ends the world I don’t give a crap if my stock goes to zero because I can’t farm for shit and I’m not going to kill someone for food. If society collapsed I’d die.

    If it doesn’t collapse society then it’s a blip. How long a blip I don’t know but blips recover. I’d be more likely to buy than sell because I don’t plan on selling the stock for decades. If that’s your time horizon whatever is happening today is almost irrelevant compared to not being in the market at all. That’s a recipe for sure loss.

  6. 2256
    Boater says:

    By biliruben @ 2236:

    RE: David @ 2228

    As someone who is in the process to looking to buy his 4th house, and has received a much larger check at each sale than at purchase, I can speak with confidence…

    … Real Estate is absolutely an incredibly bad investment long-term. Short-term. Any term.

    If you are honest with yourself, and take into account all the money spent on Realtor fees, maintenance, new roofs, burst pipes, updating – Real Estate is a loser. On paper we’ve made 100s of thousands of dollars without taking these into account. In reality, Real Estate is a money pit. A big loser. Yes you can get lucky hitting the perfect storm of geography and time period, and eek out of few cents on the dollar, particularly if you do the work yourself and don’t pay yourself, but nothing compared the stock market.

    If you don’t need RE to have a roof over your head, skip it.

    If that’s all you’re managing to eek out you’re doing it wrong.

    Just because you haven’t made money doesn’t mean it’s a bad investment. The most I can say is it doesn’t seem to be an investment that matches your personality.

  7. 2257
    biliruben says:

    RE: Boater @ 2248

    Please let me know how to do it right. I’ve owned 2 houses during two of the greatest run-ups in history. Sold with perfect timing – 2008 and 2017, and managed huge gains. I was probably luckier in my timing than 99.9% of “investors”. And still barely broke even, when taking into account costs. That last part is the key.

    Yes, if you leverage heavily and take on massive amounts of risk, you could make a bit more. But you could also end up upside-down and bankrupt.

    If you are honest about your costs, particularly including your own costs as far as paying yourself for your own labor, you aren’t making nearly what you think you are.

  8. 2258

    RE: biliruben @ 2249

    Are you adding back what you would have paid in rent and the tax benefits during the ownership?

    The big issue was people were getting 100% returns on ZERO investment for awhile there because they bought with no money at all, as VETS can still do. You can’t buy stock with no money. You can buy a house with little or no money. So the ROI is still very high.

    Paid nothing at time of purchase, sold for NET gain of $125,000 in two years which was more than the original purchase price. 125% gain in 2 years on a net basis. No capital gain tax. Monthly mortgage payment including tax and insurance was not more than they would have paid in rent. Some paint and new engineered hardwood flooring. A few new appliances, not all.

    If you buy $100,000 of stock and sell it for $225,000 you don’t get the gain exclusion and you don’t get to buy it with almost no money. You need to have $100,000. That makes a huge difference.

    My favorite ones aside from the one above were the two families who stayed 2 to 4 years and were able to go back where they came from with their tax free gain and buy a house where they used to live free and clear with the profit. They now have children and no mortgage at all, having used their Seattle gain to buy the house. Both of those after having worked here at a big salary at a local tech company were able to switch to working remotely from their new, mortgage free location. Super win-win on those. They were fun to do. As new hires they weren’t offered the option to work remotely. But once they were here for a couple to few years, they were allowed to go back to their home State and work remotely. No job change needed.

  9. 2259
    Beano says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 2244

    You have mentioned Bali’s in Tukwila twice….but I can’t find such a restaurant. What is the address?

  10. 2260
    biliruben says:

    “Are you adding back what you would have paid in rent and the tax benefits during the ownership?”
    -Ardell

    That’s why I said, “unless you need a roof over your head”. Those benefits make it worth it. And one of the reasons why I’m not seriously considering renting now.

    Whether we should be giving hundreds of billions of dollars in tax-breaks only to people who are wealthy enough own a home, and at the same time jamming renters in the eye with a pointy stick, is the subject of another conversation.

  11. 2261
    Eastsider says:

    By Ardell DellaLoggia @ 2250:

    My favorite ones aside from the one above were the two families who stayed 2 to 4 years and were able to go back where they came from with their tax free gain and buy a house where they used to live free and clear with the profit. They now have children and no mortgage at all, having used their Seattle gain to buy the house. Both of those after having worked here at a big salary at a local tech company were able to switch to working remotely from their new, mortgage free location. Super win-win on those. They were fun to do. As new hires they weren’t offered the option to work remotely. But once they were here for a couple to few years, they were allowed to go back to their home State and work remotely. No job change needed.

    This is so irresponsible coming from a RE agent. In all likelihood, you will lose money if you buy and sell your residence with only 2 to 4 years of ownership. The guaranteed beneficiaries are the agents who buy/sell the home for you. And you can’t write off the tax loss. Oh, did she mention that?

  12. 2262

    RE: Eastsider @ 2253

    I don’t disagree with that. But to say in the past tense, as was the case in responding to Biliruben, that the huge gains were sucked up by other costs is just not true. Those examples are my clients and not hypothetical situations.

    I wasn’t talking to you nor was I talking about today and future. I know Biliruben a tiny bit. I was talking to him.

    Whether or not I’m an agent doesn’t change the facts when we are talking about hindsight.

  13. 2263
    richard says:

    As I said many times. A recession is the real catalyst for housing market collapse. It is true that seller get huge profit when inventory is low, money is cheap and sucker buyers are abundant. But the market can not afford to have many sellers at the same time (which will likely happen in next recession!). it is harder and harder to find next bag holder if you expect same rate of return . if you believe house price will always go up, you should buy stock. Because their value appreciation are all based on Fed’s pump game. But stock is highly liquid and transaction cost is low. Nowadays, people just buy index ETF blindly. The risk is low because you have powell put.

  14. 2264
    David says:

    By Boater @ 2247:

    By Blake @ 2232:

    RE: David @ 2230
    Ummm… THIS is why you might want to sell your stocks now!
    https://twitter.com/Laurie_Garrett/status/1227464224445734917?s=19

    I’m shorting the S&P this week. China cannot contain this thing!

    Here’s how I look at it. If it ends the world I don’t give a crap if my stock goes to zero because I can’t farm for shit and I’m not going to kill someone for food. If society collapsed I’d die.

    If it doesn’t collapse society then it’s a blip. How long a blip I don’t know but blips recover. I’d be more likely to buy than sell because I don’t plan on selling the stock for decades. If that’s your time horizon whatever is happening today is almost irrelevant compared to not being in the market at all. That’s a recipe for sure loss.

    Coronavirus is a non-event so far. Less than a 2% lethality rate from a virus that has always existed in the cattle population. VERY few people even have it.

    This hysteria is pointless so far.

    The media tried to say the stock market was going down because of this virus – nuh uh it went down because they were worried about Trump being removed from office.

  15. 2265
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 2254
    I agree with Biliruben. Invest in the stock market instead of RE (except your home) for retirement. If you insist to be in RE, invest in a well managed REIT fund instead.

  16. 2266
    David says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 2256 – REITs suck. I like real estate and the stock market.

    I think most millionaires are still minted in real estate:

    https://thecollegeinvestor.com/11300/90-percent-worlds-millionaires-do-this/

  17. 2267
    Erik says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 2231
    I’ve got a quote for you as well…

    Ray Dalio said “Cash is trash” for 2020 and going forward. He goes on to say “The depreciation of the exchange rate and the printing of money over the next few years is going to be the biggest thing, cash is not going to be good.”

    You previously stated that you want to be in all cash by 2020. I think you should have some assets and not hold cash other than a 6 month emergency fund.

    My goal is to hold assets that give me enough money each month to sustain my meager existence. Get the cash coming in and then build stress free from there.

  18. 2268
    Erik says:

    RE: David @ 2257
    Most wealthy people in the United States got wealthy through real estate. I heard on a tour once in Seattle that 9/10 wealthy people in the Puget sound got wealthy from real estate.

    You are wasting your time fighting these idiots. They are not capable of learning.

  19. 2269
    Eastsider says:

    RE: David @ 2257 – I assume you haven’t read this –

    The number of 401(k) and IRA millionaires continued to grow, reaching record levels. The number of people with $1 million or more in their 401(k) increased to a record 233,000, up from 200,000 in Q3 and 21,000 in Q4 2009. The number of IRA millionaires increased to 208,000, also a record high and an increase from 182,400 last quarter.

    For savers who have been participating in the same workplace 401(k) plan for a decade, the average balance reached a record $328,200 in the fourth quarter, topping a previous high of $306,500 in the prior quarter.

    441,000 millionaires in retirement savings accounts at one brokerage alone! That’s not even counting other assets.

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2020/02/13/retirement-plans-401-k-and-ira-millionaires-hits-record/4738392002/

  20. 2270
    Eastsider says:

    By Erik @ 2259:

    I heard on a tour once in Seattle that 9/10 wealthy people in the Puget sound got wealthy from real estate.

    Fake news.

  21. 2271
    David says:

    RE: Erik @ 2259 – The ability to judge a real estate investment is SOOOO much easier than picking a good stock.

    Most companies have ~14 years as a viable enterprise for investment purposes (https://www.inc.com/ilan-mochari/innosight-sp-500-new-companies.html). You lose half the value of your dollar every 17 years.

    What’s left?: Real estate.

    So 14 years or 17 years. A mortgage is typically 15 or 30 years – and you will still know reasonably that the underlying real estate will have value that appreciated at 0% return at least. Meaning your house gained in value without losing money taking every expense into consideration. Rent that property out and the economics really change.

    Rent at negative cash flow? Wait and the cash flow will eventually catch up with inflation compounded. This is why I like fixed-rate interest only loans.

  22. 2272
    richard says:

    both stock and house value are paper wealth. The difference is you have debt on your house. No matter how cheap the debt is, debt is debt and it is always there. You realize your gain when the next fool show up in future. for stock, at least, you can get some dividend and you reinvest it to have compounding effect. Both assets are bubble and both are inflated by Fed. But stock make more sense as an investment: highly liquid, you can diversify to reduce risk. Another point, you should notice that people can inflate tesla from $160 to $960 in 3 months. There is some limit in how much you can inflate house price, remember buying a house is a heavy bet which could ruin your life. So I will take stock poison .

  23. 2273
    David says:

    RE: richard @ 2263 – Show me a house in metro-Seattle that has cratered in value from 30 years ago.

    Start with just one example.

  24. 2274
    Boater says:

    RE: biliruben @ 2249
    The absolute most successful for me was purchasing a SFH during 2010. It was a rental. Converted it to a duplex to be able to refi the loan and get most of my money back out. Rented it for a while using a management company. Sold it a few years later for 2 1/4 times what I paid for it. All the while it was cash flowing. That cash flow due to depreciation was not taxed.

    You do have to buy a house that doesn’t need a new roof or replumbing or negotiate that into the purchase price.

  25. 2275
    richard says:

    RE: David @ 2264 – you need to look into the future and ask yourself how much higher the price can go under the fed low interest policy and the income can support that high price. i dont have too much skin in the game as you do. you might will win as you did in the past. i will wait for the recession and buy the dip. in the meantime i can invest in the stock. it is basically the same.game but less risky than real estate. as an investor,your should know past performance does not garantee future performance. i appreviate your arrogance fuelef by past success.

  26. 2276
    Sam says:

    Now even the Economist is commenting on cost of agents and RE transactions. Can anyone with Economist subscription post full article here:

    https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/02/15/the-cost-of-buying-and-selling-homes-is-too-high

  27. 2277
    Eastsider says:

    By David @ 2264:

    Show me a house in metro-Seattle that has cratered in value from 30 years ago.

    Start with just one example.

    Inflation adjusted home prices have been very stable before year 2000. The runup in early 2000 caused the housing crash. The intervention by the Fed to reinflate prices since the crash is unprecedented. Brace yourself for another crash if you think you will do well buying at the peak of the market. Check out the chart here.

    Historical Home Prices: Monthly Median Value in the US from 1953-2019
    https://dqydj.com/historical-home-prices/

  28. 2278
    David says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 2268 – The historical return on a house is 0%. This is for a non-investment property (personal residence).

    You can sell a house and keep ALL ALL ALL of the capital gains. You cannot do that with stocks (except retirement). You sell the stock and you pay TAX NOW.

    If most stocks are not good investments over time (14 year lifespan in the S&P 500), then how is real estate a bad investment? Real estate protects your cash pool ultimately.

    ALSO, the Fed pumping to re-inflate housing is a self-defeating argument. If interest rates are LOW LOW LOW, asset prices are going to go HIGH HIGH HIGHer in value.

    The ONLY way to protect your future money is to own real estate assets.

  29. 2279
    David says:

    By richard @ 2266:

    RE: David @ 2264 – you need to look into the future and ask yourself how much higher the price can go under the fed low interest policy and the income can support that high price. i dont have too much skin in the game as you do. you might will win as you did in the past. i will wait for the recession and buy the dip. in the meantime i can invest in the stock. it is basically the same.game but less risky than real estate. as an investor,your should know past performance does not garantee future performance. i appreviate your arrogance fuelef by past success.

    AGAIN, point me to even a single example of a house in metro-Seattle that has nakered the owner over that time?

    SHOW ME JUST ONE EXAMPLE of a single-family residence in the metro that has ruined the owner? You can go back as far as you like 15, 30, 50…. years.

    I’m not arrogant, I bought about $100k in Boeing stock last year. I think the government should break up Boeing into several companies.

  30. 2280
    richard says:

    RE: David @ 2270 – those who bought around 2005 and default in 2009 recession. what do you say to those who lost their house in great recession. you can not deny there are people who boughr at the wrong time and ruined their life. as i said, stock and house is the sane game,if you believe your house will go up in price, you also believe stock will do well. amd stock is eay easier to handle. i dont want to lever too much to speculate in future. you are a bigger gambler and you might win big. but for me, i would like to bet small.

  31. 2281
    Eastsider says:

    By David @ 2269:

    The historical return on a house is 0%. This is for a non-investment property (personal residence).

    If most stocks are not good investments over time (14 year lifespan in the S&P 500), then how is real estate a bad investment? Real estate protects your cash pool ultimately.

    You are seriously mistaken. Check out the real (inflation adjusted) return of S&P 500 index. RE is out of the league.

    S&P 500: Total and Inflation-Adjusted Historical Returns
    http://www.simplestockinvesting.com/SP500-historical-real-total-returns.htm

  32. 2282

    RE: richard @ 2271
    How Close Are You to Retirement Richard?

    Most retirees can retire BECAUSE they saved enough to quit LAS VEGAS gambling….they can settle into $CASH$ and transfer to safe diverse funding, even gold and “safe flip RE buys” [like half price gems you can easily sell for 80% list without spending remodeling loot]…albeit even RE gains like that involve SIGNIFICANT capital gains and believe me, once you’re on a great retirement path, the last thing you want is reduced Social Security income because ya made too much money…LOL…how the Hades to right the boat later? Have you folks ever sat on the phone for hours/days to speak to any agency representative [multiple instances too], Its about as entertaining as watching another continuous/ boring/fake news story over and over again…..do they all use the same monotonous garbled music background?

    I’m All Rested [9-10 hrs sleep] and have already cleaned out the Yuban carafe…fill your mug now and Read the brief Brief:

    “…Millions of drivers will keep paying car-tab taxes that sometimes reach hundreds of dollars per year, after Washington state’s Supreme Court sided with Sound Transit yesterday. The decision, which focuses on the inflated car values that are used to calculate taxes, is separate from another car-tab ruling this week involving Initiative 976…”

    SWE’s take: Why vote? Some far left “crazy” judge will make it a joke anyway.

    “…Boeing and engineering-union leaders have a surprise deal on a new contract that would extend to 2026. SPEEA members will vote on the plan, which includes changes to pay, family leave and more…”

    SWE’s Take: Most of the SPEEA Presidents go to “cush” jobs in Boeing management….trust them? LOL

    “…Many people feel they lack the knowledge or confidence to reach their financial goals. But with a few good habits, both spenders and savers could see 2020 as the year to feel empowered to create a better relationship with their finances…”

    SWE’s Take: Getting to first base is the first obstacle for avg Joe $20/hr per capita incomes in Seattle. Ya need to budget for a roof on limited funds IOWs. That means smaller house and less overall spending folks, your lives depend on it….or, stay with mom and dad until you degrade psychologically?
    Depression is very chronic and high lately; and where’s Waldo? Romantic couples seen at restaurants and walking together lately this Valentines Day? Albeit, budgeting a roof over your head is FAR more important than forking out for dates in Seattle and remember ladies, its flat table gender now….you pay half the dating costs.

    “…President Donald Trump made it “impossible for me to do my job,” Attorney General William Barr said yesterday, instantly setting off speculation about how long he’ll keep that job. The extraordinary public rebuke came after the case involving Roger Stone, a longtime friend of Trump, raised questions about White House pressure on the Justice Department…”

    SWE’s Take: C’mon far left MSM, attack the same 1st Amendment “freedom of speech” and transparency rights the media has but Trump doesn’t some how? Trump set this conundrum up with Barr IMO to make you look like biased jokers…LOL

    “…”We’ll never be able to stop bad people from doing bad things to kids.” Seattle Public Schools’ human-relations chief choked up yesterday as School Board members questioned her about how the department handles misconduct by teachers. A KUOW investigation found 10 cases in which the district disciplined educators for abusing students, but allowed them to keep teaching…”

    SWE’s take: Sanctuary Cities never blame the schools for poor performance, teaching ESL [English as a Second Language] is more important than just plain teaching well.

    “…Everyone deserves to love their home. But like any relationship, keeping the love light burning takes some effort and creativity. A few simple upgrades could help you fall in love with your space again…”

    SWE’s Take: Everyone? Even those living in a tent? LOL….perhaps your tent needs a new sleeping bag, that old soggy one smells?

    Good News: Bloomberg’s stand on red-lining mortgage approval is turning out to be as bad as his “stop and frisk” laws politically…LOL

  33. 2283
    Matt P says:

    By richard @ 2255:

    As I said many times. A recession is the real catalyst for housing market collapse. It is true that seller get huge profit when inventory is low, money is cheap and sucker buyers are abundant. But the market can not afford to have many sellers at the same time (which will likely happen in next recession!). it is harder and harder to find next bag holder if you expect same rate of return . if you believe house price will always go up, you should buy stock. Because their value appreciation are all based on Fed’s pump game. But stock is highly liquid and transaction cost is low. Nowadays, people just buy index ETF blindly. The risk is low because you have powell put.

    Stock relies on the greater fool conundrum just as much as real estate does. Stock price goes up because there’s someone willing to buy it at the greater price same as a house. The stock price doesn’t guarantee you anything though, only dividends do. The stock price is just a valuation same as a house price.

  34. 2284
    richard says:

    RE: Matt P @ 2274 – that’s right. I agree with what you are saying. Stock is as speculative as housing. pick your poison.

  35. 2285

    RE: Matt P @ 2274
    After the 2001 and 2007 Stock Market Crashes

    Many lost MASS bucks and pulled out too soon. If you can’t handle that kind of stress avoid the stock market. RE, same thing….when your home becomes a money pit its no investment, but 5-10 years later it may reverse itself. Roll the dice…LOL?

    My co-workers almost all got 401Ks or matching investments out of stocks in 2007 and never returned. Even SWE should have stayed the course “retired” invested in stocks, 50% rise from 2016 on…LOL….I eventually chickened out too. We all do, even Buffet. They called their investments “puny” compared to my stock growth over the long run.

  36. 2286
    Erik says:

    RE: David @ 2262
    Totally. In the year 2020 percent are still trying to claim real estate is a bad investment. I would say those people don’t understand real estate investing.

  37. 2287
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Matt P @ 2274
    There is a key difference between RE and stock. RE (homes) is a depreciating (non-productive) asset. Stock is an appreciating (productive) asset. Over the long haul, RE keeps up with inflation. Stock beats inflation.

    Aside from your primary residence, investing in the stock market is a better choice historically.

  38. 2288
    Beano says:

    This RE v Stock debate is dumb. Having some diversity is better than having none, if the goal is to ensure stability and growth.

    If the goal is preservation of capital, RE is typically superior.

    If the goal is rapid growth, your best chances come from stocks – the right stocks.

    Both RE and stocks offer a path to financial independence. Each has unique rules (tax laws, regulations, etc..) for the game. Just understand them and you will be fine.

    The constant pumping of cash from the fed has indeed changed the game. You must own assets in this new world.

  39. 2289
    Lulu says:

    RE: richard @ 2263
    Both RE and Stock are real asset. A RE is a house that you can live in. A share of stock is a % of company ownership that might produce profit.

  40. 2290
    Eastsider says:

    By Beano @ 2279:

    This RE v Stock debate is dumb. Having some diversity is better than having none, if the goal is to ensure stability and growth.

    A home already provides (too much) ‘diversity’ for most people since it is likely their largest financial asset. There is no reason to buy another one!

    You don’t have to pick stocks. Rather, buy a few ETFs (e.g. S&P500, EM) that are broad based.

  41. 2291
    Justsomedude12 says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 2281 – Yes, one primary residence is already too high a % of net worth in RE for about 99.5% of people.

    Have your primary residence be the RE portion of your net worth. You’ll get the enjoyment of living in it, you’ll take much better care of it than renters will, and you’ll get the benefits of any appreciation in the RE market. Put the rest of your money that’s earmarked for investing in virtually zero cost index funds.

  42. 2292
    richard says:

    another point is that buying home is not the only way to get exposure to real estate. You can buy real estate stock and etf. If you believe house price and rental will go up, investing reits is one way to get some exposure. Why do you have to make a heavy bet which potentially could ruin your life?

  43. 2293

    Grab a Valentine Chocolate and Have it With Your Yuban and Read the brief Brief:

    “…WE’VE ALL HEARD about that eager-beaver woodchuck who absolutely would chuck all the wood, if he could. Good thing he couldn’t. Because here’s how much wood architect Roger Wallace needed for the contemporary, distinctly curvy home he designed for himself in Lake Forest Park — naturally, among some seriously towering trees: “I’d say a lot,” he replies matter-of-factly, […] Read more…”

    SWE’s take: Smart architect, he used a metal roof when building in the woods [for tree branch smashes]…albeit that custom home on a lot is like 3 times the price of tract built boiler plate home on a 70% learning curve.

    “…Washingtonians are among the most likely Americans to fall for romance scams, destroying hearts as well as bank accounts. Witness what happened to a guy who was teaching a class on fraud when he got snookered, and know how to avoid being a victim. Read more…”

    SWE’s take: In the early 2000s the internet dating personals were hot, the last 5-10 years they’re a complete joke….send ’em $40/mo to just email potential dates and hardly ever get to meet or get replies back for any of them like before…LOL…fake pictures?

    “….Amazon’s Jeff Bezos is buying a new home, at a record price. He’s reportedly agreed to pay $165 million for a mansion that was once featured in Architectural Digest and has its own nine-hole golf course. Read more….”

    SWE’s Take: And meanwhile screams at his hamburger flipper pay workers to pay the high rents anyway…

    “… With the current trend toward decluttering and downsizing, there are plenty of books about how to winnow down possessions. “Downsize: Living Large in a Small House” focuses on practical ways to live well after you’ve streamlined your belongings. Read more….”

    SWE’s take: Sounds like a good book nobody in Seattle would ever read…LOL

    Good News: Tiny Homes can be hidden in your parent’s backyard, pretend its a stored RV…LOL…if you’re crafty you can illegally splice into the sewer too, as you splice into the electric power. Dad and mom still get the bills, and the illegal code risks.

  44. 2294

    RE: richard @ 2283
    Yes Richard

    A lot of folks are stuck with Time Shares they never use, sometimes rent is much cheaper. Small plane rental comes to mind too…much cheaper than buying.

  45. 2295
    Blurtman says:

    Hang in there fence sitters – the coronavirus will open up inventory.

  46. 2296
    northender says:

    2020 King County property tax amounts have been released. I’m seeing big increases, some are more than 10% higher.

  47. 2297
    Erik says:

    RE: Blurtman @ 2286
    Add Lyme disease to the coronavirus and this thing could really spread creating lots of foreclosures.

  48. 2298

    Not to Worry

    IMO, the coronavirus could fizzle considerably out soon if the virus mutates more benign, like HIV did. Even the bird flu from Asia was way over played. Watch Ancient Aliens and you’d already know a valid NASA scientific observation, tons of “live” viruses get sprayed on the Earth “mysteriously” continuously and attack the hosts [humans], albeit these same “space” viruses can also mutate so their hosts stay alive too….LOL…that’s why we keep getting new flu viruses. But the coronavirus came from Chinese bats? Perhaps from outer space first and then to bats? Hey, they had the black plague and even yellow fever back in history too [killing off most everyone] with no “new strain” flu shots available at all, even months later after the new “deadly” flu breaks out….FAR WORSE folks.

    I’d worry more about the next big Seattle earthquake making your cement foundations collapse and your homes worthless smashed trash…switch to modular pilings now???, they can take a large richtor scale earthquake and don’t collapse as easily as traditional more expensive stick homes. Put a steel insert in your brick chimneys too. Condos and apartments on cement foundations, same conundrum. The building inspector already classed my modular 1991 design “on pilings” more than capable of withstanding a 7.0 earthquake, it already got a 6.7 and no damage/cracks/leaks.

    https://www.yahoo.com/news/earthquake-experts-lay-latest-outlook-030810234.html

  49. 2299

    RE: northender @ 2287

    While Our Big COLA Wages Went Up Like 2-3%…LOL

    Haven’t got mine yet….but unsold listings are piling up like dirty laundry at the 140 unit Glenbrook modular/land SE King County home development…I’m seeing about 10% of ’em have for sale signs, that weren’t there months ago….no “sold signs” either…LOL

    Good gosh, my property tax “alone” is like $220/mo added in for a 1991 mobile home on pilings, plus a $190/mo HOA fee and fire insurance that’s almost impossible to get [and doubled in price all of the sudden]…LOL…FHA loans are not accepted at Glenbrook either and you can’t rent ’em out, with a dinky car port not allowing 2+ easy cohabitation car storage. Like I say no “sold” signs in months at Glenbrook and its the cheapest out there. You can get a half acre of land with a SFH property tax in Kansas City for less than $90/mo and it went down last year…LOL….with better schools than ours and the same avg Joe $20/hr pay as Seattle…LOL My daughter’s hubby works for a big bank there now and went from like $10/hr P/T pay under Obama to his present “Trump” era , $45-50K/yr salary and no college degree…LOL…my daughter is the housewife, but that’s worth approx $50K/yr if ya have to hire help like Merry Maids.

    Kansas City can get tornado warnings….but no earthquakes generally. My daughter loves to eat out and those two live the “life of Riley”…LOL….living rent free. The home trippled in value too, from my cheap all $CASH$ foreclosure flip total costs [includes code maintenance upgrades, like a new central air and furnace replacement.

  50. 2300

    Gulp Your Yuban Fast and Get ready for Church, the brief Brief was all regurgitated RE news from yesterday:

    “…“PLANT THE WORLD; grow yourself.” For years now, this has been my mantra. Probably like you, a love of plants is what first drew me to gardening. However, lately, I’m looking up from my crowded beds and borders, as personally enriching and grounding as they are, to take a closer look at how my garden […] Read more…”

    SWE’s Take: Plant a tree today? I already ordered my 50 year anniversary Earth Day tee shirts, get your’s too?

    Good News: Even CNN ‘s morning news recommends nuclear power for electric grid capacity increase for the Climate Change agenda to allow electric vehicle evening charges without grid black-outs, without drastic increases in CO2. LOL…nuclear power….SWE’s old forgotten technology better than greenhouse gas causing coal??? Even hydrogen car technology has this new power plant requirement too adding carbon footprint, not reducing it from just oil.

  51. 2301

    BREAKING NEWS

    American Military Bases Just Attacked By Missiles Again. IRAN???

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8009317/Rockets-hit-U-S-coalition-base-Baghdad-no-casualties.html?ico=pushly-notifcation-small

    Like I say Bubleheads, see ya in church…LOL

  52. 2302
    Erik says:

    RE: David @ 2262
    I jack the rent up after a tenant moves out. While they stay there, I’ll only increase the rent like $50/month. The city of Seattle has been raising property taxes faster than I can raise rents.

    2022 I’m planning to rebalance by selling some units and paying other mortgages off so I can collect a passive income stream during the next recession. It seems like that may make me happy. I’d love to rent to Sfrz, Justme, joe, or whoever is predicting this market crash. I will spend their rent to go out to eat or take a vacation or maybe go to the casino. Whatever I spend it on is beside the point. We need the people listed above that don’t understand real estate so we can live a happier life.

  53. 2303
    don says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 2289

    Good thing you are retired and not in the construction business…

    Google “pilings” and then look under your house and see if that is what’s there. [I can save you some time, it isn’t]

    “crumbling cement foundations” ?? Where? You got your Chicken Little hat on again.

  54. 2304
    don says:

    RE: Erik @ 2288

    Add a lime to a Corona, though, and you got something.

  55. 2305
    David says:

    RE: Erik @ 2293 – I’ve begun the wonder if those homeless encampments have Internet access. If so, you won;t be making any money from them!!

    I thought about Pfft the other day. I was in Lowes buying a 2700-PSI pressure washer and an ugly dude all decked out as an even uglier woman asked if I needed some help. Me (barely able to take the shortest glances possible as to avoid spontaneous explosive barfing) said: “Hell no.”

    Which reminded me of the time I rented a condo to a guy with the same last name as me. One day I had to go into the unit to check on a repair and noticed a bottle of something called “Pig Lube”. I thought it might be a fancy-pants BBQ sauce. It wasn’t. He paid rent great butt I had to hire a company to scald every surface once he left.

    And then the next tenant was more of the same but an even more disgusting individual I forced out with a sneaky ruse involving fake litigation.

    Haven’t heard much from Pfft lately. Maybe on a penicillin drip after a rough night in the “club” ?

  56. 2306
    Erik says:

    RE: don @ 2295
    Could be a foreclosure party as Blurtman is suggesting.

  57. 2307
    Erik says:

    RE: David @ 2296
    I used Loeffler Law group in Seattle last eviction. I’ll never go back to stressing about how to get a tenant out again. They charge by the hour and all that, but it was only like $600 to evict the previous owners after my most recent auction purchase. It took about 3 months, and I got possession of the property. I didn’t think that was too bad considering the previous owner was an ex felon.

    I pay for everything I can and like to be as hands off as possible these days. I use to do a lot of the work myself. I pay eviction lawyers, property managers, remodelers, CPA’s, real estate agents, and anyone that can help me. They do a much better job than me and make my life low stress.

  58. 2308

    RE: Erik @ 2298
    Yes Erik

    Have a friend sign the affidavit of eviction and serve it, saves time and you get the paperwork processed faster. The King County Sheriff does cheap evictions service too.

    The faster ya get the process done the quicker ya get a paying renter again and ya get ’em out as soon as possible to prevent them from destroying the unit in retaliation of eviction.

  59. 2309

    From Evictions to reading the brief Brief, gulp some Yuban and read:

    “… Tacoma real estate is booming. Is that good or bad?
    As more and more people are priced out of the Seattle housing market, Tacoma has been luring them to move south. But at what cost? Buyers are navigating the crowded open houses and fierce bidding wars that used to mark the Seattle market, and longtime residents worry about historically diverse and low-income neighborhoods becoming what one person called “Wonderbread Lands.” This is an aerial view of Tacoma and Commencement Bay, with Dash Point at center right. (Photo: Travis Ness / The Seattle Times, 2018)…”

    SWE’s take: If ya gotta work in Seattle, try Fife instead, ya want to avoid that 4 lanes merging to 1, from the horrifying bridge traffic parking lot near the Dome on north I-5.

    “…Police SWAT officers leave a home in Issaquah’s Montreux neighborhood where two adults and two young children were held hostage at gunpoint for hours. After they were rescued, the home burned, and the gunman is believed to have died in the fire on Sunday. Police are still sorting out what happened and searching the scene for the suspect. Here is what we know so far. (Photo: Ken Lambert / The Seattle Times)…”

    SWE’s take: I was traveling down Kent Kangley recently and saw 10 Kent policeman with assault rifles merging on a Kent apartment house….I floored it to get out there fast. Stray bullets can go anywhere.

    “…Employers are increasingly realizing that a rested worker is a more efficient worker, so some are turning to tech, offering hardware and apps to promote better zzzzzzs. Helpful tool or creepy intrusion? You decide…”

    SWE’s take: If iPhones are allowed at work, what’s the difference whether the employees sleep or just play on their iPhones most of the day?

    “…A great savings tip. Consider investing in a CD. It’s simple. Just make a deposit for a preset timeframe and earn interest. And make sure you shop for a great rate, like this one from Inspirus Credit Union….”

    SWE’s take: At 1-2% for a 10 yr CD, invest in 0-.4% MM instead. Never keep money in locked boxed accounts with chump change low interest rates. 401Ks same conundrum, when investing in safe equities. The rich do this now too.

    “… The new King County juvenile justice facility can assist the county’s aim to transform juvenile court involvement into a catalyst for change, The Seattle Times editorial board writes….”

    SWE’s take: I hope that doesn’t mean letting illegal alien charged felons free, because they’re illegal aliens.

    Good News: Gobble down all the endless shrimp and seafood ya want, they assure us the low level mercury poisoning won’t harm us….the seafood industry that is. LOL

    https://www.healthline.com/nutrition/mercury-content-of-fish

  60. 2310

    I Lack Medical Credentials

    But this latest coronavirus MSM smells of fake news to me…

    https://www.infowars.com/hubei-doctors-warn-of-even-deadlier-coronavirus-reinfection-causing-sudden-heart-attacks/#inline-comments

    BTW, very old people and infants have always had reduced immune reaction to flu. What were their ages in this article?

  61. 2311
  62. 2312
    kenmorem says:

    to those in the know:
    what’s a ballpark current cost for a full bathroom remodel? 70SF. replace everything. modest finishes like you see in current flips on the market.

  63. 2313

    RE: kenmorem @ 2303
    Lord Only Knows kenmorem

    Ya gotta remove the toilet and bathtub to find out that calking is a joke to prevent rot. It scrubs away with a sponge [allowing shower water on floor to seep to wood rot]. If ya gotta replace the sub-flooring down to the frame, you’re talking up to $40K with custom cabinets. Tearing out the old rusted bathtub can have you tearing out rotted wood too [I repainted my old bath tub, but the contractor thought the base floor was OK]. I had a 1953 bathroom partially remodeled, about a $10K cost with custom solid oak cabinets….but the wood under the toilet was marginal and required a special chemical and two weeks drying time to barely fix it. Once ya get a new bathroom without the usual floor rot, switch to adhesives for rot prevention, the calk out there is questionable at best.

    My 1991 bathroom floor is doing great with adhesives too…had my old toilets repaired to code [$1700 for two] the floor had no rot. You can do it yourself [ask Erik} to save a lot of money, but you don’t get the 5 year plumber warranty and your HOA may not approve it either. My sinks are original 1991 ones too, albeit the drain stoppers are junk and break in a decade, I never used them anyway….LOL

  64. 2314

    Time to Replace the Calk With Adhesive in Your Bathroom floors and Guzzle Yuban, While reading the brief Brief.

    “… King County wants to shoot fireworks at bald eagles
    The majestic symbol of freedom has a powerful love of … trash. Eagles have gotten way too comfortable at the county landfill in Maple Valley, with up to 200 of them stopping by for free lunch, then picking up garbage and dropping it in neighbors’ yards. A local wildlife biologist has a whole bag of tricks to make them go away, but now the county is aiming to really ruffle their feathers. (Photo: Ellen M. Banner / The Seattle Times) …”

    SWE’s Take: Eagles feed on fish too, but they’re almost extinct around here now due to OVERPOPULATION…they like rabbits and rats; but GROWTH over building and cutting all the trees down means the rats and rabbits habitats are thinned out too. Hey, leave the bald eagles alone, we stole all their food.

    “…A body has been found inside an Issaquah house that went up in flames after a 16-hour standoff over the weekend. It’s believed to be the brother of a woman who lived at the home, and he’s suspected of taking two adults and two young children hostage before SWAT teams rescued them. Authorities are piecing together how it all unfolded…”

    SWE’s Take: Sounds like depression caused suicide to me. I have a new theory about depression getting much worse now, “low dose” mercury in seafood may contribute/cause it. Enjoy your $9.99/plate endless “low dose” mercury contaminated shrimp…LOL…the medical prognosis on my theory is not there, but I saw a cheerful/happy [lacked depression symptoms] Milenial selling bulk/cheap shrimp and lobster at Winco and asked him if ate any of the seafood, he told me abruptly, “no”.

    “…Shed some of those layers: We’ll feel a blast of dry, warmer weather before the rain rolls in again. It’s not quite T-shirt weather, but we’ll take what we can get in this wetter-than-normal February….”

    SWE’s take: Rain gone and mostly sunny, but its 29 degrees this morning and a high of low 40s. Don’t pack your parkas and ice scrapers away just yet….when morning rain comes and if its still in the 20s, it will be snow. My electric PSE bill for mostly heat peaked this month, but it was $50-70/mo worse with the old furnace.

    “…More than 25,000 Seattle commuters will get a faster ride starting Saturday, when a dozen routes scoot into new downtown bus lanes that pop with “fresh Elmo” red paint. Ferry riders will benefit, too. And more new bus lanes are ahead….”

    SWE’s take: So that means approx 1% (25,000 out of approx 2,000,000 residents) benefit from mass transit, the rest of us eat cake and pay MASS property taxes to burn in Joker’s Batman Cash Pile…LOL…what % of “mostly” empty buses/trains/bikes uselessly roam the city too?

    “The Democratic establishment “should be getting nervous,” Bernie Sanders declared last night as he fired up a crowd at the Tacoma Dome in his first Washington campaign appearance. Sanders had plenty to say about free tuition, affordable housing and Michael Bloomberg (who just qualified for tomorrow’s debate)….”

    SWE’s take: Bloomberg to the rescue, mini Mike can stop Trump. As he pushes against the “deplorables”; like farmers and manufacturing workers. Sounds like a mess for the Democrats now, and a hung jury convention for 2020. I always did like Bernie’s personality the best…LOL

    “…If Washington state lawmakers were serious about embracing transparency, they would end the dubious practice of using “title-only bills,” writes The Seattle Times editorial board. The equivalent of placeholders, they contain little substance and allow lawmakers to skirt deadlines and drop in bill wording late in the session, when proposals are less likely to get the scrutiny they deserve….”

    SWE’s take: Why vote, they ignore the results anyway.

    Good News: The Christian churches have no congregations anymore. Kent’s Zion Lutheran is down to 50 attendance from 300 a couple years ago. Maple Valley’s Neighborhood Church had 10 people attending a $2M church last Sunday with like million invested in sound systems and video cameras replacing live pastors now. Beats me why they all aren’t bankrupt businesses by now. Perhaps we can use foreclosed Christian churches to house homeless and remove property tax fees from them too. LOL

  65. 2315

    Bernie’s the One Democrats

    His rally in Tacoma was packed with 17000 now, time for medicare for all and student loan forgiveness we can’t afford anyway…LOL…beats Bloomberg’s buying out the Democrat convention process….LOL

    If you RE Bubbleheads can figure out where the Democrats are heading, you probably have more prediction ability than a working crystal ball…LOL

    Sounds like a “hung” convention in 2020 to me.

  66. 2316
    Erik says:

    RE: kenmorem @ 2303
    I could get it done for $5k and it would look excellent. For you, it would take more like $15k and not look that good.

  67. 2317

    RE: kenmorem @ 2303

    One of my clients is doing one right now. $13,500. Pretty much agree with Erik’s answer except I don’t know if yours will look good or not. :)

  68. 2318
    Cap”n says:

    RE: kenmorem @ 2303

    $25-30k

  69. 2319
    biliruben says:

    Under a thousand, DYI.

    https://www.mrmoneymustache.com/2012/12/21/how-to-make-a-relatively-sweet-shower-cheap/

    Seattle contractors seem to charge 2-3X anyplace else in the country I’ve ever lived.

    Almost have to DYI to not go bankrupt.

  70. 2320
    David says:

    I’d rip it all out. Put in DensShield for the shower walls. Then the Kerdi system for the shower. Get a tile cutter from Harbor Freight to install a tile design you buy at Floor & Decor at Southcenter Mall. Buy the toilet at Costco. Shower doors from Home Depot.

    If you can do drywall (I did it as a teen one Summer) – it is work but not tough. Floor substrate – 1/4″ hardibacker over OSB? Red Guard the heck out of the floor for tile unless using VCT.

    Don’t use wood anywhere close to the shower – especially shower curbs.

    $3,500 all in?

  71. 2321
    kenmorem says:

    i’ve done full remodels of my own bathrooms for $2k or so. they look better than erik’s. just curious about market rates as i’m short on time and not really that interested in taking on a project at a rental.

  72. 2322
    David says:

    RE: kenmorem @ 2321 – If Bernie Sanders becomes president, you won’t be able to afford a Thetford toilet remodel.

    Is this really what has become of the never-too-bright to begin with Democrats?

    Also, first candidate to call Bloomberg “Emperor Palpatine” to his face on the debate gets my vote in the general election. I predict it will be Trump.

    Trump should show up to a debate with Bloomberg co-splaying Homer Simpson repeatedly referring to Bloomberg as Mr. Burns.

  73. 2323
    Erik says:

    RE: kenmorem @ 2321
    Another lie. Why do you even come on here?

  74. 2324

    RE: softwarengineer @ 2299
    Hey Northender:

    I got my King County property tax assessment for 2020, a 10% increase, at least the HOA fee only went up 3%. I also did my 2019 federal taxes and a couple anomalies came up. They changed the 1040 Form and added “hidden income, foreign banks and deduction” line item visibility. Jumbled the line items up IOWS, making the 2018 1040 boilerplate comparison to 2019 very difficult [you needed to read the 1040 instruction book very carefully IOWs]. A weird change in my dinky 0-0,5% $CASH$ interest from Money Markets occurred too, perhaps we had a significant savings interest peak [that fizzled out later in the year]; whatever happened my interest income trippled in 2019. I saw that in my matching 401K tax free account too…about a 3% interest rate, before it was about 2%. Whatever, I still snagged about 40% of last year’s refund, even with a 9% decrease in 2019 1099R tax revenue [compared to 2018] paid to Trump. My nice sized Trump refund check with more $CASH$ should arrive in a few weeks. If you’re retired with multiple $CASH$ pots to track for the IRS, it means the 1099Rs come in bunches and referencing 2018 1040 data to 2019 understandably mixes it all together too…I learned this year to staple the 1/2 inch 2018/2019 bunches all together separately, so they can be tracked quicker for 2021…live and learn. Or hire the tax guy to do it. LOL

    Its Toastmasters today, I’m the impromptu table topic master today….so my Yuban is already guzzled and I slept well after working my buns off retired yesterday…read the brief Brief:

    “…Boeing may give up the major Washington state tax break that saved it nearly $100 million in 2018. The company is pushing for bills in the Legislature that would ditch the controversial tax break, to avoid European tariffs. One sticking point: what would have to happen for Boeing to get it back later….”

    SWE’s take: Seattle Boeing takes another budget sock in the fiscal stomach…not good.

    Everything else in the Brief was non RE related.

    Good News: I just discovered Anne Rice’s 80s and 90s novels, that in later decades became best sellers too….she should be compared to Stephen King and Dean Koontz in quality/innovation BTW IMO…but yes, gender discrimination among best seller authors then was possibly real. I loved her 1980 Queen of the Damned plot description too….LOL….she envisions immortal beings killing off all the war monger males for peace…LOL

  75. 2325

    The Democrat Candidate Bloomberg Says Asian Country “Fecal” Contamination and Lack of Hygiene by This Type of Ethnic Group Causing Coronavirus Spread:

    https://www.bloombergquint.com/global-economics/fecal-transmission-may-be-behind-coronavirus-s-rapid-spread

    Lock ’em all up in detention camps like WWII Japanese were mini-Mike possibly alleges? Stop and frisk.

  76. 2326
    David says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 2325 – Bloomberg is probably right. Fecal matter spreads disease.

    This falls into my ongoing series: “Just ask Pfft”.

  77. 2327
    kenmorem says:

    By Erik @ 2323:

    RE: kenmorem @ 2321
    Another lie. Why do you even come on here?

    what’s the lie?
    $600 for tub. $400 for glass door. $500 for tile + wedi board + mud + grout. $100 for flooring. $50 for paint. $100 for trim. $300 for vanity. total = $2050. add in $200 for 2 doors if you like. and sales tax. still in $2k range.

    for a supposed engineer, facts don’t seem to be your strong point.

  78. 2328
    Erik says:

    RE: kenmorem @ 2327
    You told me you are 39 and you own your primary residence and a condo in Queen Anne outright. I asked how that was possible and you said you made extra payments and were frugal.

    So you paid like a million dollars in extra payments during the time when you were probably in school, dating, etc. Doesn’t add up. You’d have to make $250k/year and be a complete loser with no life with lots of discipline.

    I’ve read what you’ve posted over the year and could easily tell you had no idea what you were talking about on many points. Then you’d pretend to understand when you obviously don’t. So you have a past of being untruthful and you tell a highly improbable story. Doesn’t add up.

  79. 2329
    Erik says:

    RE: kenmorem @ 2327
    Now you are claiming you are a master craftsmen that can get stuff done cheaper than people that do this for a living. More BS!

    You are have mastered finances and mastered remodeling while in your 30’s. And your comments have indicated you are someone with a low intelligence that does not understand either subject. It’s a huge stretch if you want readers to believe this garbage.

  80. 2330
    Johnny says:

    https://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/3741-S-Kenyon-St-98118/home/479908

    This one looks under priced to me. Wish there were more homes like this available. What do you all think?

  81. 2331
    Bumble says:

    By softwarengineer @ 2325:

    The Democrat Candidate Bloomberg Says Asian Country “Fecal” Contamination and Lack of Hygiene by This Type of Ethnic Group Causing Coronavirus Spread:

    https://www.bloombergquint.com/global-economics/fecal-transmission-may-be-behind-coronavirus-s-rapid-spread

    Lock ’em all up in detention camps like WWII Japanese were mini-Mike possibly alleges? Stop and frisk.

    You do know the link you provided is a story published by Bloomberg News, right? The story, written by someone named Jason Gale, has nothing to do with “The Candidate Bloomberg.” It is based on the findings of Chinese researches. Other outlets, like Newsweek, are reporting this same story. And yet somehow, you think this news story might mean that Mike Bloomberg, the person, is an anti-Asian, pro-detention, racist. Do you see how crazy that is? Do you see how it has nothing to do with Seattle real estate? This is insane. PLEASE STOP.

    I know i’m wasting my keyboard strokes, but before you post something on this real estate blog, stop and ask yourself, “does my post have anything to do with Seattle real estate, anything at all?” If the answer is “no,” I beg you, I beg you….mercy.

    This isn’t about disagreeing with your politics. It isn’t about free speech. It is about you being wildly and consistently off-topic. Would you post these comments on a cooking blog? A blog for parents raising children with special needs? A blog about woodcarving? Remember, this is a blog about Seattle real estate.

  82. 2332

    RE: Erik @ 2328
    If I Was Flipping Quick to Sell

    The Hades with the bathroom wood rot inspection costs?, even if it needed it…let the next owner replace the base flooring, as long as it isn’t squishy to step on and the toilet isn’t tilted or rattles….LOL…I’m on Erik’s side. BTW, renters are hard on base floors leaks/rot….especially if they cover it up.

    I rebuilt my “large flush” old fashion toilet with new innards too, rather than stick a small flush capacity cheap new in. Its more expensive, but the water saved on double/triple flushes will cover the costs in time…LOL

  83. 2333

    RE: Bumble @ 2330
    LOL…Bumble

    Politics on taxes and health care costs have nothing to do with RE planning?

    Do you live on Mars?

  84. 2334

    Bumble’s Grumbling, But He’s Scant on Common Sense Planning for RE Investing In my Book, so grab your Yuban and read the brief Brief and Ignore Bad Advice:

    “…A man was found dead outside the King County Sheriff’s Office in Maple Valley this morning. The man, who had a gunshot wound, is believed to be the husband of a woman who was found dead in the couple’s home earlier this week…”

    SWE’s Take: More “inner city Detroit Violence Hits Seattle Area”, the almost daily beat goes on….

    “…Washington’s ferry fleet may lose one of only two ferries that can make the crossing from Anacortes to Sidney, B.C. Budget cuts threaten the Elwha ferry, and its loss “would be devastating to this community,” Anacortes’ mayor says….”

    SWE’s Take: Keep this in mind if you need access to Canada soon.

    “…An Auburn man who vanished two years ago was killed and dismembered, court records say. First-degree murder charges detail what led authorities to Two Dogs Salvatore Fasaga two years after his old juvenile-rehab acquaintance, Paul “Hound” Snarski, disappeared…”

    SWE’s Take: Horrifying Seattle Area murder just solved off missing person file.

    Good News: I asked my Toastmasters Club [non-partisan BTW] did they want to raise the “middle income” tax tables to the old Democrat tax tables that Obama [Biden too?] used? The answer was almost unanimous [most are Democrats too] and simply, “no”. Bumble thinks we’re nuts….LOL…BTW, does Bumble want to raise middle income tax Phase I Trump tables for 2020? Bumble alleges it won’t affect RE financial planning?

  85. 2335

    More “Inner City Detroit Type” Violence in Seattle Area

    https://www.yahoo.com/news/suspected-bank-robber-seattle-arrested-005550441.html

    Add this to the other stories today. How many unsolved murders and other violence is not reported? Lord only knows.

    But Bumble alleges neighborhood livability won’t affect RE in Seattle? That’s exactly what they preached right before an avalanche of evictions and foreclosures in Detroit too, due to violence.

  86. 2336
    Beano says:

    By Erik @ 2329:

    RE: kenmorem @ 2327
    Now you are claiming you are a master craftsmen that can get stuff done cheaper than people that do this for a living. More BS!

    You are have mastered finances and mastered remodeling while in your 30’s. And your comments have indicated you are someone with a low intelligence that does not understand either subject. It’s a huge stretch if you want readers to believe this garbage.

    Seattle Bubble? Pfft…. try Seattle Beatdown!

  87. 2337
    Brianna says:

    Here’s some RE related news:

    “Thinking about buying a home in Seattle? New study finds it might be better to rent”
    www. komonews.com/news/local/thinking-about-buying-a-home-in-seattle-new-study-finds-it-might-be-better-to-rent

  88. 2338

    10% of the 140 Modular Homes Have Been Listed This Month In SE King County

    And no “sold signs” out there.

    Your bank and escrow title holders can help…I’d call ’em. I own the Title, and also knew my modular insurance Declaration came [approved???] to me in the mail last November for 2/20/20 renewal. I had to call my insurance company yesterday, because automatic monthly payments for fire insurance were late. They fixed it after I called. The debit shows today for 20/2020.

    Your mortgaged house contract [and home is unsellable] is null and void with no fire insurance BTW and banks may not be as thorough as SWE. Be sure to emphasize its a permanent structure modular home on a lot with no wheels and axle to the insurance company, it sure could explain why nothing is selling right now in Glenbrook. The banks are understandably slow getting it fixed????

    Also the “mobile home” structure is King County assessed now at around $200K….the insurance companies know my new mobile home with wheels and axles goes far a lot less than that. I do hope your bank is a good Toastmaster…LOL…ask Ardelle or S-Crow, this is a likely “modular home insurance” mess.

  89. 2339
    Eastsider says:

    FYI – US 10yr treasury yield hit 1.44% this morning. It is at the lowest level since July 2016.

  90. 2340
    kenmorem says:

    By Erik @ 2329:

    RE: kenmorem @ 2327
    Now you are claiming you are a master craftsmen that can get stuff done cheaper than people that do this for a living. More BS!

    You are have mastered finances and mastered remodeling while in your 30’s. And your comments have indicated you are someone with a low intelligence that does not understand either subject. It’s a huge stretch if you want readers to believe this garbage.

    more republican style name calling. debate the numbers. see where i’m wrong.
    i’m sorry that i worked construction building houses when i was aged 14-22 and have an advantage on you.
    i’m sorry that i’m better at handling my money than you.
    i’m sorry you’re bitter.

  91. 2341
    Ardell DellaLoggia says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 2338

    30 year hit an all time record low.

  92. 2342
    David says:

    By kenmorem @ 2339:

    By Erik @ 2329:

    RE: kenmorem @ 2327
    Now you are claiming you are a master craftsmen that can get stuff done cheaper than people that do this for a living. More BS!

    You are have mastered finances and mastered remodeling while in your 30’s. And your comments have indicated you are someone with a low intelligence that does not understand either subject. It’s a huge stretch if you want readers to believe this garbage.

    more republican style name calling. debate the numbers. see where i’m wrong.
    i’m sorry that i worked construction building houses when i was aged 14-22 and have an advantage on you.
    i’m sorry that i’m better at handling my money than you.
    i’m sorry you’re bitter.

    Trump absolutely butt-raped Joe Biden. RIP Joe Biden. RIP Poca.

  93. 2343
    Ardell DellaLoggia says:

    Just saw the first rate drop in awhile on mortgages. 3.25% with a 3.38% APR.

  94. 2344
    David says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 2342 – Wow. That is cheap money.

  95. 2345
    Erik says:

    RE: kenmorem @ 2339
    How do you know what I have? You keep saying you are doing better than me. How do you know that?

  96. 2346
    kenmorem says:

    By Erik @ 2344:

    RE: kenmorem @ 2339
    How do you know what I have? You keep saying you are doing better than me. How do you know that?

    because you told me so, several blog posts back. i’m too lazy to go and look it up, so you can have fun looking for it.

  97. 2347
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 2342 – Perhaps we will see sub-3% mortgage rates this year.

  98. 2348
    David says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 2346 – I wonder what an interest only loan rate is right now. Interest only, adjusting every 6 months (1 year), for 10 years.

  99. 2349
    Erik says:

    RE: kenmorem @ 2345
    Well, I don’t remember saying that because I would be lying and I’m not a liar.

  100. 2350
    Erik says:

    RE: kenmorem @ 2345
    Reread kenmoron. You are wrong as usual.

  101. 2351
    Erik says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 2342
    Evergreen told me 4.375% on my preapproval for my investment property In Rainer. I asked why so much and the loan man said it’s more because it’s an investment property and I’m pulling a lot of money out.

    I’m only wanting 75% LTV but for whatever reason, the rate is higher because I’m pulling money out on an investment property per loan man.

    Does that sound right to you or do you think I’m getting jacked? It’s a 30 year conventional loan btw.

  102. 2352

    RE: Erik @ 2350

    Generally a cash out refinance of an investment property is not as low as a Purchase Loan of a single family residence that will be owner occupied. This is not a question you put out in public Erik as the answer involves some things I know in confidence. I’ll answer you further in private.

  103. 2353

    RE: Justsomedude12 @ 2291
    A Piece of Paper Saying Your House Went Up in Value

    Won’t put burgers on the table.

  104. 2354

    All the News is Just Coronavirus and Endless Russia Allegations Now, Let’s Center on Just the Seattle RE Tidbits With Our Yuban Mugs and Read the brief Brief:

    “… For 26,000 Seattle commuters, a better ride has arrived
    Commuters will get a faster ride starting today, when a dozen routes scoot into new downtown bus lanes that pop with “fresh Elmo” red paint. Ferry riders will benefit, too. And more new bus lanes are ahead. Read more…”

    SWE’s take: I see, we paint all the Seattle Road Lanes RED for Buses Only and Phase out Cars 26,000 at a time…

    “…Boeing has ordered inspections of all the undelivered 737 MAXs after it discovered debris that mechanics left inside the wing fuel tanks of several of the aircraft. Read more…”

    SWE’s take: This Foreign Object Debris [its called FOD folks] can be anything from paperback books the workers read at work to steel wrenches, etc….

    “…The Seattle City Council has voted to allow up to 40 tent cities, tiny-house villages, or parking lots for people living in their cars — a huge increase. Read more….”

    SWE’s take: Who pays the land costs and utilities? the tooth fairy? How many homeless per location? ten?

    “…Weary of big-city crime? Take a look at the newly named safest city in Washington, a ferry ride away. Researchers used FBI crime statistics to rank the safest and least-safe cities around the state. Read more…”

    SWE’s take: Yeah, low population density areas with no jobs have less crime…LOL

    “…Today’s kitchen is more than a room for preparing food. Every inch should be packed with helpful features, aesthetic splashes and a sense of security. See what’s cooking in 2020 with hot new kitchen features that reflect these goals, and then some. Read more….”

    SWE’s Take: Just throw mindless money at it and it will be money down the drain when you resell.

    Good News: Do Your 2019 Federal Income Taxes and Compare the tax bill to a few years ago using old higher Obama tax tables.

  105. 2355
    ohd1122 says:

    So, still monitoring the north Kirkland area (mainly 98034) and Bothell in the $500-$700K range. In the past few weeks, I have seen inventory come online and things that IMO are worth a second look. It feels to me like there has been more steady inventory in this price range so far this year and in the later half of last year, but that’s just a feeling. So that’s the (potentially) good news for me. I recall Ardell saying this price range is becoming a smaller percentage of total homes over time in the area and I would trust Ardell more than me.

    The unmistakably bad news for me is that every single one of these homes has gone pending within a week*, and one of them went pending in two days. Unsurprisingly, there is pent up demand at this price point in this area and buyers are not waiting around. Too early to tell for sure, but I assume at least some of these homes have multiple offers and will sell above asking. Recent closed sales are mainly from December when the market was slower and closed at or just slightly above asking.

    Will keep monitoring. Should be an interesting spring.

    *technically one went pending in eight days but I’m counting it

  106. 2356

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 2351
    Yes Ardelle:

    I asked a Glenbrook HOA home owners if any of the “unsold” 140 units for sale have sold yet [about 10% of total listed the last few months]. One owner said “none”, albeit one said “one”….she thought it was an all $CASH$ deal not requiring fire insurance. Yeah, we got homes for sale cheap at Glenbrook…likely only $CASH$ allowed if insurance is “suddenly” cancelled [it appears it might have happened again to me]. You don’t need house fire insurance if you own the deed.

    I had to call my insurance company to get them to debit my checking account to reactivate it by the Declaration 2/20/20 deadline….they did. But since when does automatic insurance payments need reactivation by owners with deed? I’ve never seen this before. If you don’t call, you have no insurance.

  107. 2357
    justsomedude12 says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 2352 – Not sure what you’re saying here. My post #2291 is saying one should view their home as a place to live, rather an investment vehicle.

  108. 2358

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 2340
    Yes Ardelle

    I saw that too.

    What gets me Ardelle is my $CASH$ money market bank account interest tripled in 2019 from 2018. Maybe the banks are “recently” bidding for depositors? LOL…Its not like the $CASH$ in the bank tripled in one year either. Hey, the interest income may be low on $CASH$, but its better than a kick in the pants…LOL

  109. 2359

    RE: justsomedude12 @ 2356
    Yes

    Homes are a poor investment package, ya can squeeze more money out of them with “refinanced” lower rates, but end up paying decades later for interest too in lower monthly payments. With low COLA growth, that can be detrimental to retirement planning later. That’s why I’m neutral on finance planning, but try to stick to “long-term” growth planning in my book, rather than “short-term” elongation of smaller mortgage interest payments.

  110. 2360

    RE: ohd1122 @ 2354

    The number of days being 2 or 8 really has more to do with the review date in most cases. Most “can’t” sell in 2. This is the best strategy this time of year because people come home from work in the dark and seeing and picking a house you have only seen in the dark is not a good thing. Anything sold in the first week is pretty equal as to time to sell and yes, most anything sold in the first week is going to sell at full price or better. So list on Thursday with offers looked at the following Monday, Tuesday or Wednesday is very much a factor.

    Don’t feel too badly about the $500,000 to $700,000 price range as I am looking from $600,000 to $1,200,000 in Kirkland, Bellevue, Redmond and maybe Sammamish-Issaquah and the inventory hasn’t been better up to $1.2M. So don’t feel like your price range is making a significant difference given you have appropriately positioned your search to 34Kirkland and Bothell.

    The year ALWAYS plays out this way and this year is no different. Nothing worth seeing then 1 iffy decent one a week. This week I’ve targeted 3 decent ones that were better than last week’s iffy ones. So yes and I do think the weather helped. Actually I just remembered I have 4 this week, but one is a view condo. 3 are houses in Kirkland and Redmond.

    You say unfortunately for you they sold in a week. You have to be ready to buy in that time by review date. If you don’t want to spend more than $680,000 then don’t look over $650,000. If you are waiting for a decent house in that price range to stay on market long enough for you to offer less than asking, you are going to end up with the house no one wants. Not good. This week is the first real week of the season. If it snows in March like it did last year, we can have a stall. If not it will keep progressing at 3 to 5 good ones a week through July or so. But they are not likely to linger on market without good reason.

    Why do you say unfortunately for you they sold the first week on market? That has been a reality for many years for the best of houses that are priced well. You have to up your game on that. No reason you should see that as a negative.

  111. 2361

    RE: softwarengineer @ 2355

    I don’t know where you get 140 being for sale. I did see one sell but I didn’t see more than a few being currently for sale. How can there be 140 for sale in one older neighborhood? I don’t see that. Are they all private offerings?

    As to insurance, I just warned one of my daughters to check into recent developments in the insurance industry.

    I just saw Anthony Hopkins listed his Malibu house. The fire last season stopped at his next door neighbor, destroying the next door house without damage to his. Of course he’s not selling because of anything to do with a fie. ;) I wouldn’t be surprised if the buyer will have to pay through the nose to get insurance. The cost in the new map of fire prone areas has expanded dramatically somewhat like flood insurance. That IF they will insure it at all. Cash buyers will have to protect themselves as the ability to cancel if they can’t get insurance as that legal out may not be in a cash buyer contract in all fire prone areas.

    Just like after Katrina, insurance companies are being overly cautious everywhere given the hit they’ve taken due to all of the wildfires in the last couple of years.

  112. 2362

    This Useless URL by Forbes has been Around For Years

    LOL…finding the states where everyone is fleeing will take a half hour slow slide show wait. Its called fake news, because no one has time to open it….LOL

    https://www3.forbes.com/leadership/the-u-s-states-people-are-fleeing-and-the-ones-they-are-moving-to-vue/?utm_campaign=states-people-are-fleeing&utm_source=yahoo-gemini&utm_medium=yh147896n1us203040&lcid=yh147896n1us203040&utm_content=${PUBID

  113. 2363

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 2360
    10% of 140 For Sale:

    Fourteen units approximately.

    That’s a huge percentage compared to all SFHs in Seattle area.

    There’s really only one insurance company that sells “double priced” modular fire insurance, Foremost, and the other “big” insurance companies subcontract to them. There’s another company besides Foremost, but the rates are doubled again.

  114. 2364

    RE: softwarengineer @ 2362

    “…unsold” 140 units for sale have sold yet…” Glad that was a typo. :) 14 sounds more realistic and last I looked most of those were not listed in the mls if there are indeed 14.

  115. 2365
    ohd1122 says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 2359

    Absolutely agree. My intent was to just point out that demand, and thus competition, has not dwindled and therefore buyers shouldn’t expect a market that is materially different than what they have been experiencing for the past few years. It’s more of the same: limited supply, lots of demand. If you want to close on a house, you need to be ready and watching the market or you’ll be left in the dust. If anything, things are hotter now than they were in the Fall when I DID see a few houses sitting on market for 30-60 days even though they looked good. This might just be a seasonality thing.

  116. 2366
    Ardell DellaLoggia says:

    RE: ohd1122 @ 2364

    Agree.

  117. 2367
    CB says:

    I was thinking the same thing… Is Tim okay?!?! Or can only members see the updates?

  118. 2368
    Ardell DellaLoggia says:

    RE: CB @ 2366

    I emailed him awhile back and he didn’t answer but he posted on his facebook a few days ago, so I’m pretty sure he’s OK.

  119. 2369
    sfrz says:

    RE: CB @ 2366 – He’s been posting on his Twitter account. Just a few days ago, Feb 19:
    “ɯı⊥¯ǝɥ⊥
    @The_Tim
    This tiny house (really <1,000 sqft)—on one of the busiest streets in my neighborhood, with no yard to speak of—hit the market just 4 hours ago and already has 45 favorites on Redfin. This #HousingMarket is nuts. #RealEstate https://redfin.com/WA/Everett/350&quot;
    3502 Colby Avenue

  120. 2370

    RE: sfrz @ 2368

    His last Tweet on his SB Twitter was back when Wendy Lister passed away dated 10/3. On his personal account that you posted it says ” Tweets NOT endorsed by my employer, @Redfin”

    I think something happened at work that has caused him to not only not post here but also to not explain why he can’t post here. So no news is good news in that if he does come back that means he’s out of work, which happened before.

    So let’s with him well as his family needs him to have a job more than they need him to post here. :)
    .

  121. 2371
    Voight-kampff says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 2369

    I like that you all help to keep this place alive, you know? to leave the light on for the Tim.

  122. 2372

    RE: CB @ 2366
    Good Question

    Last I heard Tim and his spouse adopted a child, and that may be absorbing his time, understandably too. I don’t know how the Hades I worked full time and raised two kids [one is severely disabled] by myself too. You learn to juggle…LOL

  123. 2373

    My Next Door Neighbor is 58 Years Old and Has Three Adult Children Still Crammed in His 3 BDRM

    Add in his 10 year old daughter…four kids. He recently got off unemployment and got a programmer job at Starbucks….but let’s put it this way, it don’t sound like the project manager job he once had at MSFT for twenty some years, before the unexpected layoff about 4 years ago. I spoke to his 30 year old daughter and she told me she works seven days a week at COSTCO, the other two adult kids evidently don’t work to date, to my knowledge. My gosh, it sounds like 3 of the daughters share a single bedroom.

  124. 2374

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 2363

    The For Sale Signs I See are Various Realtors Too

    Maybe I’m paranoid Ardelle for the sellers/buyers due to lack of “sold” signs, but being retired with the deed, unless I have a house fire [which I can afford to fix with $CASH$ anyway] I don’t need fire insurance to live here, but have it anyway.

    I keep fire insurance on my flipper too and I own the deed.

  125. 2375

    More Inner City Detroit Type Violence In the Seattle Area Last Night on National News

    https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/feb/23/bernie-sanders-seattle-campaign-headquarters-vanda/

    Glass smashing occurs at coffee shops in Seattle too…poor Bernie, he didn’t deserve the “brick through the window”. Sounds like the criminal runs free too. Very upsetting.

  126. 2376
    sfrz says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 2369 – I enjoy and follow this Twitter account. His puppy, his podcast reports and his daughter fill the tweets. There is more to life.

  127. 2377

    RE: sfrz @ 2375

    We can just quote him from his Redfin writings, this from Feb 13 “Home Prices Rose 7% in January, Housing Supply Fell 11%” :)

    I don’t think he doesn’t have the time, I just think Redfin owns what he says so he has to say it there and we have to read it there. I was thinking maybe he can just put a link to there here as a post and then we can talk on that. :) I’ve also been thinking there are several posts on page one of this blog with no or almost no comments. Maybe we should share the love and comment on a post with none instead of this one.

  128. 2378
    Eastsider says:

    US 10yr treasury yield hit 1.361%, an all time low, this morning.

    This is not good.

  129. 2379
    Blurtman says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 2372 – And the kids probably have massive student loan debt and heroin issues.

    Why doesn’t he cash out his crap shack and move to Kansas?

  130. 2380
    Intsokzen says:

    It’s all going down in 2020. China is at a dead stop while previously leveraged to the hilt. If we were panicking with Greece almost a decade ago, this is now several magnitudes more severe.

  131. 2381

    The Arbor Society Wants Us All to Plant Trees, Read the brief Brief, Gulp Your Yuban Down:

    “… Falling tree critically injures sleeping Renton man
    A man was pinned to his couch when a 200-foot fir tree crashed through his roof yesterday. Rescue workers went in through the apartment’s floor to free him. It took a crane to lift the tree, which fell in a windstorm that knocked out power to thousands of people in the Puget Sound area. (Photo: Puget Sound Fire)…”

    SWE’s Take: Trees can smash down on your apartment and kill tenants too….plant one anyway landlord, its unlikely.

    Good News: The Democratic Debates have replaced the Impeachment “waste of time” garbage news…looks like Sanders is the lead horse now…the establishment cringes….LOL

  132. 2382

    RE: Blurtman @ 2378
    Hey Blurtman

    You sometimes love to needle me….liar.

    That overpriced crap shack of your’s should be sold now, price reduced and make room for a millennial.

    You hate “modular” home options that cost less…LOL…my daughter has no student loan, unlike you [greedy???] I paid 100% for her college….my son is severely disabled. Thank God for Medicare for just old/disabled, we can afford that. I paid into it all my life like most legal citizens.

    Having a bad day day grouch? Vote for your Bernie or Bloomberg clowns and 65% of us polled say Trump’s re-elected in 2020 anyway….LOL….Trump took your Obamacare tax deduction away? Boohoo…EAT CAKE.

  133. 2383
    Lulu says:

    By Eastsider @ 2377:

    US 10yr treasury yield hit 1.361%, an all time low, this morning.

    This is not good.

    Refine. It is good.

  134. 2384
    S-Crow says:

    Contractors are evidently in a massive boom for business and need respirators/masks. My local Home Depot had 4 rows of various respirators/masks as of Friday. Yesterday, when I had a return for a couple items and I walked by that isle…..everything was cleaned out as of 7pm yesterday. I went online at HD….”respirator masks” reflected sold out or very low inventory.

    These events are probably quite intriguing for Sociologists and Psychologists.

  135. 2385
    N says:

    @Erik 2351 – The rate you can get will generally be higher 1) if you do a cash out 2). For an investment property. +0.5% would not surprise me for an investment property. Sounds like you’ve been doing this for a while so you probably already know this. Don’t take our word, shop a few lenders – both brokers and direct to banks/credit unions, pricing varies.

  136. 2386
    Sid says:

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-24/seattle-tech-employees-earn-56-more-than-nyc-finance-workers

    Seattle Tech Employees Earn 56% More Than NYC Finance Workers

    In the third quarter of 2019, average weekly wages for the nation rose to $1,093, a 3.6% increase from a year earlier. People working in the information sector in the Seattle area earn almost five times that — King County, Washington, tech workers average $5,367 per week, or about $279,000 a year.

  137. 2387
    Eastsider says:

    By Sid @ 2386:

    King County, Washington, tech workers average $5,367 per week, or about $279,000 a year.

    I just googled “software engineer salary” –

    Glassdoor – $81k-$130k, Seattle
    PayScale – $74k-$130k, Seattle

    You can discount Bloomberg. Another click bait.

  138. 2388
    Ardell DellaLoggia says:

    Did anyone notice The Dow is down over 1,000 points today?

  139. 2389
    Sid says:

    By Eastsider @ 2387:

    By Sid @ 2386:

    King County, Washington, tech workers average $5,367 per week, or about $279,000 a year.

    I just googled “software engineer salary” –

    Glassdoor – $81k-$130k, Seattle
    PayScale – $74k-$130k, Seattle

    You can discount Bloomberg. Another click bait.

    Data from US BLS

    https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cewqtr.t02.htm

  140. 2390
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Sid @ 2389 – Many tech workers currently hold company stocks that have vastly appreciated in last few years. You are not going to find a tech job today that pays an average of $279k. Not even close.

    It is as misleading as claiming that Medina average household wealth is in the tens of millions.

  141. 2391
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 2388 – The 1,032 point drop today is 3.56% percentage wise. The largest stock market crash on Black Monday was 22.61%, or equivalent to 6,500 points. Today’s 1,000 point drop is insignificant otherwise.

    That said, nobody knows if today’s drop will lead to a bigger one.

  142. 2392
    Intsokzen says:

    I find it hard to believe that MSFT and Amazon don’t pay experienced software engineers at least in the $200k range. That doesn’t sound outlandish at all. Nevertheless I think Seattle housing market has plateaued and will probably trend down in the next 5 years, simply because Seattle acts as an arbitrage for San Francisco and SF is going down. Also Chinese investment interest has declined and will decline further as currency controls become even more restricted in China with the coronavirus fallout. I just moved to Seattle and plan to rent for 2 years at least. Rent is actually pretty reasonable for a new construction 3 bdrm townhouse in the city.

  143. 2393
    Sid says:

    By Eastsider @ 2390:

    RE: Sid @ 2389 – Many tech workers currently hold company stocks that have vastly appreciated in last few years. You are not going to find a tech job today that pays an average of $279k. Not even close.

    It is as misleading as claiming that Medina average household wealth is in the tens of millions.

    Even taking company stock appreciation into account, the $279K number is very impressive.

  144. 2394
    Intsokzen says:

    By Sid @ 2393:

    Even taking company stock appreciation into account, the $279K number is very impressive.

    I’m curious what the median is though, probably a more useful number.

  145. 2395
    Eastsider says:

    By Intsokzen @ 2392:

    I find it hard to believe that MSFT and Amazon don’t pay experienced software engineers at least in the $200k range. That doesn’t sound outlandish at all.

    Google “microsoft software engineer salary”. No need to make outlandish statements.

  146. 2396
    Any says:

    By Eastsider @ 2390:

    RE: Sid @ 2389 – Many tech workers currently hold company stocks that have vastly appreciated in last few years. You are not going to find a tech job today that pays an average of $279k. Not even close.

    It is as misleading as claiming that Medina average household wealth is in the tens of millions.

    Its misleading because its probably only including very specific titles at certain companies, but make no mistake there are a lot of tech workers in the area making in that ballpark. The majority of programmers with at least a few years experience at Microsoft / Amazon / Goog in this area probably make over $200k in total compensation yearly. Many closer to $250k. Their managers probably make $300k+ and higher level directors / GM’s probably make 400-500k or more. So when you average it all out, that $279k claim may not be all that misleading, if you are mainly looking at those companies with big pocketbooks. Which do have a ton of employees in the area.

    Its difficult to see prices going down here much in the near future, barring an economic crash from corona / major China supply chain problems or something similar. Continually lower interest rates have been the new norm for the past 20 years, difficult to see that trend breaking with debt levels as they are. And cloud continues to be the one area in tech with continual outsized growth, which isn’t changing anytime soon. Amazon + Microsoft cloud businesses have grown to over $50B per year revenue combined and are still growing in large double digits (40-60%). Tons of that growing money pile is going to keep flowing into this area year by year to bring in talent, and some will end up in housing. Prices may seem high and at a point where they can’t go much higher… maybe that’s true in the near term. But in a 5-10 year span, the Fed is almost certainly going to keep expanding its balances, suppressing interest rates, feeding asset prices…. especially in an area like this where a lot of that excess money will be flowing to if the cloud trends hold.

  147. 2397
    Eastsider says:

    By Sid @ 2393:

    Even taking company stock appreciation into account, the $279K number is very impressive.

    In Microsoft’s early IPO days, there was a glut of stock option millionaires. $279k sure is a lot of money today but pales in comparison to the early millions. Also, it will not stay at $279k unless MSFT doubles again.

  148. 2398
  149. 2399
    Brianna says:

    RE: Intsokzen @ 2392

    This may be anecdotal, but I can tell you from what I know of a family member, an experienced software engineer, 20+ years at msft, makes well under $200k a year.

  150. 2400
    Brianna says:

    And also – this family member makes more per year than their team manager.

  151. 2401
    Brianna says:

    In other local job related news:

    Expedia Group says about 500 people in Seattle will lose their jobs
    https://komonews.com/news/local/expedia-group-says-about-500-people-in-seattle-will-lose-their-jobs

  152. 2402
    OA says:

    By Eastsider @ 2387:

    By Sid @ 2386:

    King County, Washington, tech workers average $5,367 per week, or about $279,000 a year.

    I just googled “software engineer salary” –

    Glassdoor – $81k-$130k, Seattle
    PayScale – $74k-$130k, Seattle

    You can discount Bloomberg. Another click bait.

    100% agree, $279k is in no way average. I work in finance for a software company locally and know all the salaries. I’ve yet to see a sw engineer make that kind of money below a VP title. Have a few buddies at Microsoft that make in the 150-175k range (salary + bonus). They all have 10+ years of experience.

  153. 2403
    OA says:

    By Brianna @ 2401:

    In other local job related news:

    Expedia Group says about 500 people in Seattle will lose their jobs
    https://komonews.com/news/local/expedia-group-says-about-500-people-in-seattle-will-lose-their-jobs

    Wow that’s pretty major. I figured Expedia would lose a decent chunk of their employees by moving to Seattle, but this is a surprise.

  154. 2404
    Anon Tech Worker says:

    RE: Sid @ 2389

    Glassdoor salaries are laughably low. Majority of folks I work with that have more than a few years experience are clearing 200k easily. On the other end of the spectrum mid to high six figures is the norm for top talent.

  155. 2405
    Any says:

    By Eastsider @ 2398:

    RE: Any @ 2396

    https://www.payscale.com/research/US/Job=Software_Engineer/Salary/85ce7fd1/Microsoft-Corp

    Feel free to believe that website if you like, but the real average for Microsoft software engineers in this area is quite a bit higher. That website works off a limited dataset and a lot of it is probably dated.

  156. 2406
    S-Crow says:

    RE: OA @ 2402 – I also agree. Not from the salaries I see in Escrow. Maybe a dual household income. But an average of $279K ? Not in my experience. The only time I see that kind of income is small biz owners or executive staff, or top Dept. heads at UW.

  157. 2407
    Erik says:

    RE: OA @ 2402
    Sounds like you’d know if you are in software finance. I thought code monkeys made more. They probably don’t have all that much disposable income living in Seattle unless they are married and both make above average software wages.

  158. 2408
    Blurtman says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 2382 – If Blurtman sells his crapshack, it will likely be to an immigrant H1b programmer.

    Bernie will run circles around Trump in the debates, unless the Dem party throws him under the bus again. The Revolution is coming, comrade, and your Wrong Think may be cured in a re-education camp, or, if not, it’s Hanford waste pit labor for you and those of your ilk.

  159. 2409
    Intsokzen says:

    By Erik @ 2406:

    RE: OA @ 2402
    I thought code monkeys made more. They probably don’t have all that much disposable income living in Seattle unless they are married and both make above average software wages.

    Are there that many women software engineers? At least American ones? I know that physicians marry other physicians because 50% of physicians are female, and the nature of the job often requires a partner who understands firsthand. But I would be surprised if more than 25% of software engineers are female in Seattle, which would make the assumption that most are dual earners with similar above average software wages suspect.

    And I thought software engineers made more too, especially with the inflation this past decade and that they aren’t effectively capped by government regulations and Stark antitrust laws like in medicine.

  160. 2410
    Deerhawke says:

    This spring market is turning out pretty much as I expected. Not 2017 redux yet, but every bit of 2016.

    Not a lot of new listings but pretty much whatever comes on the market is gone in a week. Offer review dates are again commonplace. Listed on Wednesday or Thursday, pending on the following Tuesday or Wednesday. Lots of multiple offer situations. Unlike 2017, there are not 15 offers at the review date, but 3-4 like in 2016. Are listings getting bid up? Definitely. Two houses I watched on Queen Anne and Capitol Hill each went for about 25% over list— and the agents had already added 5% to the comps for their listing price.

    The February month-end numbers will show inventory below January. And January was below December. I don’t think that trend line can’t last, but it lowers the base line for the spring/summer bump when it does happen.

  161. 2411

    RE: Erik @ 2406
    Erik

    I didn’t invent 10 years and experience on-the-job training in company source code experience with high school degree….it’s in the ‘Indeed” job descriptions for Software Engineer positions, in writing. A college degreed guy/gal has no source control code experience or specific manufacturing engineering experience either….where do ya think I learned design material thicknesses and weld fillet markings, etc, etc….it ain’t the U of W Mechanical Engineering Dept…LOL

  162. 2412
    David says:

    By Blurtman @ 2407:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 2382 – If Blurtman sells his crapshack, it will likely be to an immigrant H1b programmer.

    Bernie will run circles around Trump in the debates, unless the Dem party throws him under the bus again. The Revolution is coming, comrade, and your Wrong Think may be cured in a re-education camp, or, if not, it’s Hanford waste pit labor for you and those of your ilk.

    Bernie is going to get smoked in a debate with Trump. Bernie will look like a fool.

    Bernie will lose Florida because the Cuban population is not going to fall for such a loud-mouthed NY/Vermont idiot communist sypathizer.

  163. 2413

    Great Blogs All

    You’re squishing that MSFT lie that more H-1B OVERPOPULATION is our only hope in high tech….its just the opposite. The STEM fake news.

    This affects RE prices and its non-partisan too. I loved S-Crow’s Take….the income he sees in Middle Class “per capita wage assumptions” needs [like $200K/yr] is not evident at all on mortgage applications. Its all two incomes, masking as one. Great hypothesis, I like it.

    I see the Seattle Public Schools’ elimination of the gifted student program out of our decrepit “English as a Second Language” joke schools allegates that its RACIST? Racism and learning math and science are not related, unless you’re a Bloomberg/Bernie Clown.

    Like I said, my daughter mastered Calculus when taught by Green River CC professors; but couldn’t master 9th grade algebra [like most Kent students, even honor students] with decrepit public school around here. They grade math mostly with “cheater” homework…not tests…LOL

  164. 2414
    David says:

    RE: Blurtman @ 2407 – Here you go from your friend Bernie. Please explain the BOLD part in some detail and be specific. And remember that you are not emplyed by Vermont weirdos:

    “”But in reality,” he said, “If you ever loved me, or wanted me, or needed me (all of which I’m not certain was ever true), you also hated me. You hated me — just as you have hated every man in your entire life, but you didn’t have the guts to tell me that. You hated me before you ever saw me, even though I was not your father, or your teacher, or your sex friend when you were 13 years old, or your husband. You hated me not because of who I am, or what I was to you, but because I am a man. You did not deal with me as a person — as me. You lived a lie with me, used me and played games with me — and that’s a piggy thing to do.” – Bernie Sanders

    This is just one from the ole NYC weirdo (there are a lot of these in NYC) Bernie. Trump will eat BS alive (BS = Bernie Sanders).

  165. 2415
    Intsokzen says:

    In the market for a $2 million SFH in Seattle proper. Renting three bedroom right now for about $3500 and very comfortable. A little undecided about when to pull the trigger.

  166. 2416

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 2388
    Yes Ardelle, Its Been a Roller Coaster Short Term, It Goes Back Up Too

    There are theories out there that the coronavirus is a plot to topple Trump’s surging economy data by China. I’ll take my tin hat off and just state simply, “possible” and makes common sense too. Why is it so bad in China and not the rest of the world, viruses aren’t political, they spread by normal contact. I see Iran is getting hit hard by coronavirus scare too…why is it all our enemies that can’t control it?

  167. 2417
    David says:

    RE: Intsokzen @ 2414 – The historic return on SFH for personal use is 0%

    Is there enough spread, taking into consideration inflation on your rent (rising) versus cost of capital to buy a house (interest rates+principal) where the principal goes down in relative terms as housing prices rise?

    If Seattle prices continue to rise, I’d buy a house. Personally I like interest-only loans for the flexibility yo not pay the principal though I always wind up overpaying principal personally.

  168. 2418

    RE: Intsokzen @ 2414
    So Ya Make $1M/yr You Allege?

    To make that $3500/mo rent affordable? What do you do for a living? Sell illegal Cocaine or maybe you hack S/W? LOL

    BTW, my Windows 2007 expired patches in 2020 was definitely fake news IMO opinion too. The MSFT weekly patches occurring weekly just like 2019….I think the weekly patches are possible data gathering by advertisers code and they don’t dare eliminate their “cash cow”??? LOL…its like the fake news on H-1B needs because of STEM needs by MSFT??

  169. 2419
    Blurtman says:

    RE: David @ 2411 – Trump is incredibly immune from saying outrageous things, but for most other candidates, the bar is much, much higher, no dispute there.

    Yes, the surviving old, white Cubans, cleverly positioned as “minorities” due to their Spanish surnames, but descendants of persecutors of native peoples and slave owners, like Marco Rubio, will undoubtedly not vote for Bernie. But the younger folks may.

    Prepare to share your home with the party apparatchiks, comrade. It’s the peoples’ wealth, after all.

  170. 2420
    Notme says:

    Black swans are nesting
    parts of house above water
    soon only chimney

    -an underwater bubble haiku

  171. 2421
    Intsokzen says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 2417

    We don’t make $1 million a year, but quite a bit more than half a mill. We don’t work in tech or sell crack. Anyway we recently moved to Seattle and have two little kids. $3500 rent for a nice 3 bdrm is actually reasonable from where we came from that’s why I’m thinking of renting for a couple years and see where the dust settles. What would other people do in my situation? Rent for awhile? Buy? If buying, we would probably do 20% down with 15 year mortgage.

    Not sure if the market has even contemplated Bernie Sanders.

  172. 2422
    David says:

    By Blurtman @ 2418:

    RE: David @ 2411 – Trump is incredibly immune from saying outrageous things, but for most other candidates, the bar is much, much higher, no dispute there.

    Yes, the surviving old, white Cubans, cleverly positioned as “minorities” due to their Spanish surnames, but descendants of persecutors of native peoples and slave owners, like Marco Rubio, will undoubtedly not vote for Bernie. But the younger folks may.

    Prepare to share your home with the party apparatchiks, comrade. It’s the peoples’ wealth, after all.

    “After graduating from college, Sanders returned to New York City, where he briefly had a variety of jobs, including Head Start teacher, psychiatric aide, and carpenter.”

    “[B]riefly” means Bernie Sanders didn’t like working real jobs. Ergo lazy.

  173. 2423
    Beano says:

    By Blurtman @ 2407:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 2382 – If Blurtman sells his crapshack, it will likely be to an immigrant H1b programmer.

    Bernie will run circles around Trump in the debates, unless the Dem party throws him under the bus again. The Revolution is coming, comrade, and your Wrong Think may be cured in a re-education camp, or, if not, it’s Hanford waste pit labor for you and those of your ilk.

    I don’t give a crap about Trump but you must have been on another planet if you think a socialist has any shot in America, esp vs Trump.

    Trump wins 40 states vs Burn.

    It will be revealing when 10 states shows themselves to be socialist.

    We all know Washington has jumped the shark, sadly.

  174. 2424
    uwp says:

    By Intsokzen @ 2420:

    We don’t make $1 million a year, but quite a bit more than half a mill. We don’t work in tech or sell crack. Anyway we recently moved to Seattle and have two little kids. $3500 rent for a nice 3 bdrm is actually reasonable from where we came from that’s why I’m thinking of renting for a couple years and see where the dust settles. What would other people do in my situation? Rent for awhile? Buy? If buying, we would probably do 20% down with 15 year mortgage.

    If you’re making 500k+/yr, I would rent but be ready to pull the trigger when you see a home that checks all your boxes. Houses going up or down 10% wouldn’t have a big sway either way at those income levels, especially if you are planning on putting down roots here for a while. But if you’ve just moved here, I would definitely rent for at least 6 months or so to get a feel for the city and neighborhoods.

    The lull from 6 months ago seems to be over, so there isn’t an advantage to trying to buy right now, while later this year you will have a better idea of how you live in Seattle and there will likely be more/better inventory even if the prices are higher (or possibly lower!).

  175. 2425
    Erik says:

    RE: Beano @ 2422
    Trump has too good of results as president to get voted out. I like Bernie’s ideas better, but Trump does what he says he’s gonna do. I don’t believe Bernie will make his promises happen because it would cost wayyy more than we have without a capital plan.

    We have a good leader that is creating jobs and reducing my stress levels. I don’t think Americans will vote for someone with lots of empty promises, but who knows, there are a lot of people out there that make decisions with their emotions(a lot of democrats).

  176. 2426
    Erik says:

    RE: Intsokzen @ 2420
    Great job! You have a high income and that’s great.

    If I were in your shoes, I’d live below my means and invest for 10 years and then move somewhere cheaper and retire. I’m a big believer that Seattle prices will go up. Because of your income, I’m guessing you could save at least $200k/year. Invest it in something pretty safe until you have enough passive income to retire. No need to get into the housing market my opinion unless you want to use it as an investment. You can rent and just sock away money into low risk investments.

    My wife and I make significantly less than you and your wife. I do real estate so I always have a rental to sell or get a loan against if I need some cash. You have the cash, you need to hold onto it and invest until you’re passive income surpasses your expenses.

    I don’t know, if you make that much, I’m guessing you are smarter than me with money. That’s just my opinion fwiw.

  177. 2427
    k says:

    RE: Intsokzen @ 2420

    2M with 20% down is about 50k/year in interest alone. Add ~15k in property taxes and ~20k in maintenance and it’s already ~7k/month before you even start paying principal. How could that possibly make any sense vs 3.5k rent? Especially today when we are past due next recession.

  178. 2428
    k says:

    RE: k @ 2426

    I am also looking at ~1M purchase vs ~3k rent and it still hardly makes sense at this point.

  179. 2429
    Blake says:

    By Intsokzen @ 2420:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 2417

    We don’t make $1 million a year, but quite a bit more than half a mill. We don’t work in tech or sell crack. Anyway we recently moved to Seattle and have two little kids. $3500 rent for a nice 3 bdrm is actually reasonable from where we came from that’s why I’m thinking of renting for a couple years and see where the dust settles. What would other people do in my situation? Rent for awhile? Buy? If buying, we would probably do 20% down with 15 year mortgage.

    Germany and Japan are in recession. China is in trouble (1/3 of world economic growth lately…) The world economy was teetering on the edge the last 8 months, but the Fed pumped a half a trillion $ into the repo market last Fall (don’t call it QE4!) to keep the party going…

    Then came coronavirus! Party is over and time to retrench. You’re in a good spot renting for now. Just wait.

    Me? I’m selling my house in March, retiring and moving to Hawaii! :-)

  180. 2430
    David says:

    By Erik @ 2424:

    RE: Beano @ 2422
    Trump has too good of results as president to get voted out. I like Bernie’s ideas better, but Trump does what he says he’s gonna do. I don’t believe Bernie will make his promises happen because it would cost wayyy more than we have without a capital plan.

    We have a good leader that is creating jobs and reducing my stress levels. I don’t think Americans will vote for someone with lots of empty promises, but who knows, there are a lot of people out there that make decisions with their emotions(a lot of democrats).

    Feelings? Bernie? Well…

    https://twitter.com/m_mendozaferrer/status/1089662245422989313

  181. 2431
    Blake says:

    By Beano @ 2422:

    By Blurtman @ 2407:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 2382 – If Blurtman sells his crapshack, it will likely be to an immigrant H1b programmer.

    Bernie will run circles around Trump in the debates, unless the Dem party throws him under the bus again. The Revolution is coming, comrade, and your Wrong Think may be cured in a re-education camp, or, if not, it’s Hanford waste pit labor for you and those of your ilk.

    I don’t give a crap about Trump but you must have been on another planet if you think a socialist has any shot in America, esp vs Trump.

    Trump wins 40 states vs Burn.

    It will be revealing when 10 states shows themselves to be socialist.

    We all know Washington has jumped the shark, sadly.

    My Grandfather thought FDR was a commie and voted against him… FOUR TIMES!
    Hah ha!
    FDR defeated the fascists and rescued capitalism by helping to set up a social contract to make it somewhat humane. The social contract has now been been torn up and discarded while the true face of capitalism is tearing communities apart and crushing people!! People lurched to the right hoping Trump might help them, but now they are listening to Bernie and might give him a chance. (Bernie polls better than Trump with Texas Independents… Texas Independents! Think about that!)

    Feel the Bern!!

    ps- Social Democracy is not radical. Look at Europe… they are not “socialist” but mixed capitalist-socialist economies. Bernie will give more bargaining power to the people vs. the corporations and the oligarchs who are looting this country. Wake up!!

    National Champions or National Chumps?
    https://mattstoller.substack.com/
    In 1998, Bill Clinton allowed Exxon to buy Mobil, helping to recreate a good chunk of the Standard Oil empire. In 2006, someone asked Exxon Lee Raymond why he wouldn’t build more refining plants in the U.S. for security purposes. He said, “I’m not a U.S. company and I don’t make decisions based on what’s good for the U.S.”

    In other words, today we have an open and largely ungoverned American political economy dominated by financiers and monopolists with no loyalty to United States interests. And now we are encountering aggressive authoritarian state capitalists who will not hesitate in exploiting our own corporate giants. Disney, for instance, not only makes most of our billion-dollar movies but does so according to the whims of Chinese censors.

    Let’s start with domestic concentration. Over the last two decades, 75% of U.S. industries have experienced an increase in concentration levels. You can see it in everything from syringes to cheerleading to missiles and munitions. Such concentration results in a host of problems, like low productivity growth, less firm formation, and regional inequality. Hidden risk is a classic feature of monopoly, because a monopoly means putting all your eggs in one basket.

    The increase in concentration is obvious if you pay any attention to business, but there is a sort of ‘believe me not your lying eyes’ quality to the debate. There are an endless army of economists who explain how concentration doesn’t exist or isn’t a problem, but these arguments are often parlor tricks of only measuring the benefits of scale.

    For instance, in Rob’s book Big is Beautiful, one of the key examples of the importance of scale is Boeing. Boeing is a roll-up of aerospace companies, and it first crossed $100 billion in revenue in 2018 as America’s leading exporter, as Rob was writing his book. Like large banks on Wall Street, Boeing’s size and market power, which mistook for innovation and health, was masking an underlying deterioration of the corporation’s ability to make airplanes. Much of the strength of monopoly is often a mirage, based on refusing to look at hidden risk.

    Hidden risk is now everywhere. According to the Pentagon, we now have sole sources of domestic supply for large numbers of military inputs, from flares to high voltage cable, fittings for ships, valves, key inputs for satellites and missiles, and even material for tents. Drug shortages tripled between 2005 and 2010 and continue to grow. More than 100 drugs were in shortage as of January 2020.

    And this hidden risk has enabled China to acquire power. Now all the CCP has to do is gain control over a sole source producer. China makes a host of key inputs for DoD missiles, satellites, and other defense manufacturing programs. Our ability to fight a war with China in some ways hinges on whether Chinese companies are willing to keep selling us ammunition. The same is true in medicine. Our hospitals are critically under-sourced for things like respirators and masks, as well as chemical inputs for drugs, most of which are made in China.

    We have also learned helplessness among our policymaking elite.

  182. 2432
    Ohd1122 says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 2409

    We toured a house this past weekend in the Kirkland area and passed because while it was a good price and decent location some of the design and remodel decisions were questionable at best. Now pending with six offers (we heard from the agent). The “affordable” tier, if you can call it that, seems like it’s pretty hot right now.

  183. 2433
    David says:

    I bought some stock today – screw real estate.

  184. 2434
    Eastsider says:

    RE: k @ 2427 – $1m may soon get you a lot more stock than house if previous 2 days’ trend continues. If we enter a bear market, current home prices will not hold.

  185. 2435
    David says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 2432 – It’s a conflagration of a virus and concern about Bernie Sanders.

  186. 2436
    Sfrz says:

    RE: Intsokzen @ 2414 – watch out! Glenda the good witch (aka ardell) is getting her bait on the line! Another fish to fry!

  187. 2437
    Erik says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 2432
    This is an example of why I say you don’t understand the housing market. I’m not trying to be mean, it’s obvious to me you don’t get it.

    If we do go into a recession, which is completely possible, how are prices going to go down? Inventory is 1500 in king county dummy! Supply and demand will keep prices level if not make them go up in a recession. If the recession is based on bad loans and we have deleveraging, yah, prices could go down. That is not the case.

    I’m not sure what the mental block is here as you’ve been told this over and over. You are basically spread false information and degrading this site. You please learn or exit.

  188. 2438
    Erik says:

    RE: Sfrz @ 2434
    Ardell is a great agent that understands real estate. She is an asset to her clients.

    I am a tough client and I’m very pleased she agrees to help me. I’m glad she is in my network. She will be my go to as long as she stays in real estate. My biggest concern is her retiring someday and making me try to find an equivalent agent.

  189. 2439
    Erik says:

    RE: David @ 2429
    I’m big into eating right as it’s really improved my life. I only eat organic meat and vegetables as well as seeds and nuts.

    Bernie wants to fix our food supply which I think is terrible. Trump eats at McDonalds. I tend to like Bernie’s approach in that respect. I do not think Bernie will be able to make changes. Trump was is a strong person that sticks up for America.

  190. 2440
    Erik says:

    RE: Intsokzen @ 2414
    Ardell is the best agent I’ve ever worked with and I’ve worked with a lot. Ignore bitter Sfrz. Read her comments, she absolutely doesn’t understand real estate. She was screaming how the market was crashing in in 2018/2019. If she cannot understand data and gives bad advice, why would anyone hire her? I’ll tell you why… because they don’t understand themselves or are too lazy to find someone competent.

  191. 2441
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Erik @ 2435 – I am not sure why you get triggered so easily. So home prices can’t drop? Right, when one is as leveraged as you. LOL.

  192. 2442
    Erik says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 2439
    Because I keep telling you the information and you are not processing it. Yes, I’ve worked very hard to understand the market and I’m largely invested. I am able to buy rentals because people on this site helped me. I was broke before my understanding. I want to give back and help others as they helped me.

    You are telling everyone the wrong information. I want people that come on here and and succeed. You are one of the people with bad information. I think if I came on here now and listened to you and the others that don’t get it, my life would be much less prosperous.

    I take this seriously. You should too.

    Tim, corndogs, Ray Pepper, and Ardell helped me succeed by helping me understand the market. I want to see others be helped too. You are not helping, you are hurting others with bad information.

  193. 2443
    Blurtman says:

    By Beano @ 2422:

    By Blurtman @ 2407:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 2382 – If Blurtman sells his crapshack, it will likely be to an immigrant H1b programmer.

    Bernie will run circles around Trump in the debates, unless the Dem party throws him under the bus again. The Revolution is coming, comrade, and your Wrong Think may be cured in a re-education camp, or, if not, it’s Hanford waste pit labor for you and those of your ilk.

    I don’t give a crap about Trump but you must have been on another planet if you think a socialist has any shot in America, esp vs Trump.

    Trump wins 40 states vs Burn.

    It will be revealing when 10 states shows themselves to be socialist.

    We all know Washington has jumped the shark, sadly.

    Trump can’t say or do anything to alienate his base. They’re locked in. But does his base provide him enough votes for a second term? There is no shortage of narrow-minded liberals who have severe Trump Derangement Syndrome (TDS), but will enough hold their noses and vote for Bernie? I would say the hatred is that strong, and liberals are all about feelings and not logic.

    General Election: Trump vs. Sanders: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_sanders-6250.html

    Of course it comes down to the electoral college numbers, and not polls.

  194. 2444
    sfrz says:

    RE: Erik @ 2435 – Pointing that finger while you peddle fake wealth, get-rich-quick gurus on here? Telling everyone you know all and everyone else is dumb for not following you and your pied piper Ayn Rand crap. All hail Erik.

  195. 2445
    sfrz says:

    RE: Erik @ 2436 – Right…. that’s why she’s on here peddling her wares. How many Used House Salespeeps do you see on this site consistently? 1. Fishing as always. You claim to be so smart, yet she hooked you. Duh. All hail smart Erik. I say it, so it must be so!

  196. 2446
    sfrz says:

    RE: Erik @ 2440 – OMG. It’s gettin’ deep! Back away from the booze. Sound like a drunk at a bar. You’re only here to help. That’s what I’ve done all my life. St. Erik. The new Seattle Bubble shrine.

  197. 2447
    OA says:

    By David @ 2431:

    I bought some stock today – screw real estate.

    Lol I did the same today as well!

  198. 2448
    Erik says:

    RE: sfrz @ 2442
    I am really smart… I know because of my performance in school.

  199. 2449
    Erik says:

    RE: sfrz @ 2442RE: sfrz @ 2441
    I got hooked by an agent that gets me a high price quickly when I sell and great deal when I buy.

  200. 2450
    Coconut says:

    I say this with a little trepidation… did The Tim pass away? His last update was in September, so am assuming something dire is happening…or he won the lottery…is there a good alternative to the bubble?

  201. 2451
    sfrz says:

    RE: Coconut @ 2447 – The Housing Bubble Blog. It’s not infested with specuvestors and StealEstate Con Artists. That’s why it’s still alive and kicking. This one morphed into a parasite blog.

  202. 2452
    sfrz says:

    RE: Erik @ 2445 – Right. You’re the smartest cookie in the box. That’s why you promote fake gurus and throw your money at a StealEstate Con that trolls this site with her fishing pole.
    Smart Erik’s guru that he swears by:
    “Robert Kiyosaki

    I was completely consumed reading Kiyosaki’s book, Rich Dad, Poor Dad. Kiyosaki has a unique perspective when it comes to personal finance. Some of his most controversial pieces of advice are: your home isn’t an asset, and you should leverage debt to grow your riches.

    It seemed that Kiyosaki’s debt leveraging was working quite well — until he had to file bankruptcy for his company. After a court ruling in 2012, one of Kiyosaki’s companies, Rich Global LLC, was ordered to pay the Learning Annex nearly 24 million dollars. That’s when the Rich Dad, Poor Dad author was forced to file bankruptcy for that company.

    Leverage can grow your wealth, but you are also increasing the risk of losing everything. It doesn’t work for every situation!” https://moneyning.com/money-news/why-you-shouldnt-always-listen-to-the-top-financial-gurus/

  203. 2453
    Blurtman says:

    RE: sfrz @ 2449 – Yes, his RE advice led to doom during the last meltdown. But this is how sheeple work – there are a finite number of “expert”’spots, and as an aspirant for that spot, you need distinguish yourself from the pack, and so a clever book or program title, like Rich Dad, Poor Dad, or outlandish dress, or rape or abuse experience, etc. can do it. Once you have that spot, you have to defend it and not step on any third rails, and if you do, blame past abuse, racism, Trump, etc. Once you are there, your image and slot identity carry you through, in spite of terrible advice you may offer, or incongruity, such as a fat woman heading up a weight loss company, etc. So Kawasaki has this “expert” spot, but he has been quite wrong, as you point out.

  204. 2454
    Whatsmyname says:

    RE: sfrz @ 2449 – Having a mortgage is not really a material financial factor when losing $24 million lawsuits

  205. 2455
    Whatsmyname says:

    By Eastsider @ 2432:

    RE: k @ 2427 – $1m may soon get you a lot more stock than house if previous 2 days’ trend continues. If we enter a bear market, current home prices will not hold.

    Incorrect. $1MM could get you a $5mm house, but only $2mm in stock.

    The argument that prolonged stock losses will surely result in RE losses later does not seem like a strong argument for buying stocks now.

  206. 2456
    Eastsider says:

    By Whatsmyname @ 2452:

    $1MM could get you a $5mm house, but only $2mm in stock.

    Are you trolling again? Try to buy a $5mm house on a $1mm down payment. Care to share the specifics of the loan, if you even find a lender?

  207. 2457

    Lots of Opposing RE Takes Now and its Understandable With the Unpredictable Coronavirus Death Fears Growing Right Now, Now Swallow Some Yuban Put Your Flu Mask On and read the Read brief Brief:

    “…Start preparing for a COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak now. It’s simply a matter of time before we face what may become “a significant disruption of our lives,” federal health officials are warning. Here’s how doctors and researchers say you should get ready. How deadly is this thing? Scientists are piecing together what they know about the death rate and how it compares with other viruses…”

    SWE’s Take: Get Ready? How can you stop a virus that’s spreading through our lungs’ exhales that normally spread all over the Earth anyway? I know, SWE is working from home anyway, I’ll quit Toastmasters, become a home hermit and have my food delivered by the convenient Safeway Truck [wear my Hazmat Suit to take delivery of the food]….as they bury the rest of you office/plant workers….LOL…I’ve got a few months of books to read, I’ll be fine. Also, if the county gets a bad “yellow fever” doze in America; the elderly and disabled will get more protections too on their Social Security and Medicare. Sick days run out too and then they flu furlough the rest of you out of jobs? LOL

    “…About one in five Washington community-college students was homeless last year. Nearly half went hungry or couldn’t afford nutritious food. And the situation is worse in Washington than nationwide, according to new research that surprised some community-college leaders here. “We really need to scale up our resources,” one says…”

    SWE’s take: Get a college education and make $1M More In a Lifetime than just a high school diploma they say. If you can afford the student loan payments while flipping burgers…LOL

    “…Ending Boeing’s tax break would give Washington a big windfall. It’s not a done deal, but as you can imagine, lawmakers have no shortage of ideas about how to spend an extra $363 million or so…”

    SWE’s take: As Boeing prepares Potential Mass Pink Slips for the workforce, the politician wolves salivate over the fresh meat in taxes now available.

    Good News: Elderly and toddlers are more likely to die from coronavirus….the government should protect our Medicare and Social Security to prevent death tolls. Take 1000 mg of vitamin C everyday for immune response.

  208. 2458
    Whatsmyname says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 2453 – Haven’t tried, but I do know for a fact you can get an 80% loan on multifamily. Again, you miss on materiality. A $4mm house is still twice $2mom in stock.

  209. 2459

    Coronavirus Fears Making Mortgage Rates Decline

    https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/mortgage-rates-more-attractive-10-120353621.html

    If the black plague in America kills a large amount of buyers, that reduces prices too…they can put the low interest on funeral cost reductions then? The healthy Milenials will grab ’em up from the dead elderly cheap or the prices will be supported? Lord only knows.

  210. 2460
    David says:

    By OA @ 2444:

    By David @ 2431:

    I bought some stock today – screw real estate.

    Lol I did the same today as well!

    I bought more Apple, Boeing, QQQ. So I’ve made 3%-4% at today’s prices. BUT I sold HCHC to fund those investments at $4.23 a few days ago. Basically I doubled my money in a truly stupid investment. After I bought, I found out the CEO was paying himself $11m/year – I thought he had learned his lesson as a hedge fund manager. I’m going to steer clear of any hedge fund managers going forward. Supposedly HCHC is trading at 20% of its underlying assets. BUT a bad manager can screw up anything apparently.

  211. 2461
    Lulu says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 2432
    Just keep renting. No one force you to buy house. Stock is very liquid asset, can drop 40% in week. House is a shelters not investment. Housing price are determined by supply and demand. Amazon is creating 15000 positions in Bellevue. I would guess your landlord is going to raise your rent soon.

  212. 2462
    Blake says:

    By Blake @ 2428:

    By Intsokzen @ 2420:

    RE:

    We don’t make $1 million a year, but quite a bit more than half a mill. We don’t work in tech or sell crack. Anyway we recently moved to Seattle and have two little kids. $3500 rent for a nice 3 bdrm is actually reasonable from where we came from that’s why I’m thinking of renting for a couple years and see where the dust settles. What would other people do in my situation? Rent for awhile? Buy? If buying, we would probably do 20% down with 15 year mortgage.

    Germany and Japan are in recession. China is in trouble (1/3 of world economic growth lately…) The world economy was teetering on the edge the last 8 months, but the Fed pumped a half a trillion $ into the repo market last Fall (don’t call it QE4!) to keep the party going…

    Then came coronavirus! Party is over and time to retrench.

    There it goes! Dow popped up almost 500 points this morning.. and has since dropped 600! Big money is moving into safe havens with the US 30 year bond at an ALL-TIME low already and the 10 year bond keeps going down., now at 1.31%… it was at 2.62% one year ago. Incredible.

    If you are buying a house you can get a real low mortgage, BUT who knows where the bottom will be to this downturn! I was watching the business channels the last few days and they brought out many big fund managers to talk. Many said they were concerned that the Central Banks did not have enough ammunition to help during the downturn with interest rates already bid so low.

    Silver lining to the virus and downturn… It may help us get rid of TRUMP!!!

    The idiot shot his mouth off yesterday assuring everyone that the coronavirus is nothing to worry about. I work in infectious diseases and this is NOT contained and spreading fast! It’s a pandemic and I’d expect the summer Olympics to be cancelled. HUGE impact on world trade, travel, tourism etc. The world economy was already in bad shape… now it’s gone!
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/02/25/coronavirus-threatens-global-economy-sudden-stop/

  213. 2463
    Justme says:

    …AAAAAAND just like that, the stock market bounce-back failed and all major US indices went negative for the day.

    After Mon/Tue recording setting market losses in the multi-trillion USD range, the market bounceback this Wed morning was heralded as a recovery. Except later in the day, the recovery died.

    What will happen tomorrow? One day to the next is difficult to predict, but don’t think for a second that either housing or stocks are safe in the near-to-medium term. Pretty much every asset class is hyperinflated, and all it took to topple the nosebleed stock prices was for the coronavirus Black Swan to arrive. Housing, likewise overpriced, will follow the stock market down, but because of delays in closings and reporting thereof, it will take a bit longer to see the effect. The real estate market insiders and profiteers love the non-transparency of pricing in their market, no doubt.

    And that’s my prediction for 2020. My track record is pretty good. In 2017, I predicted the timing of the peak of of the Seattle housing market and was off by only 5 months. Nobody else on the blog were even close to making a correct prediction. And that peak (in the Case-Shiller index) still has not been surpassed as of the latest Dec 2019 data. It is now 18 months since the peak. All the bubble-mongering profiteers on this site can put fact in their pipe and smoke it.

    And it all could have been avoided. The losses, the grief, the great societal cost of the endless greed. But no, personal profit at all cost, and everyone else be damned.

  214. 2464
    Dustin says:

    RE: Justme @ 2459 – The day isn’t over yet. As far as assets being hyperinflated, you may be right, but as long as there’s demand for the assets and people have money to buy them at “inflated” prices, what is the force that would cause a decline? History shows that markets can collapse, but not without a reason – something has to happen to restrict capital flow into the market. In the Seattle region, I think tech industry incomes are an important factor, but I’m not sure when or how a correction will occur in that sector. Perhaps Amazon could be broken up, or become too big to sustain. Boeing is still a major employer in the area as well, and if the news is any indication they are going to be in big financial trouble soon.

  215. 2465
    Whatsmyname says:

    RE: Justme @ 2459 – So when do you think house prices will fall?

  216. 2466

    RE: Whatsmyname @ 2455

    Data Assist :) 16 houses sold for $5M give or take in the last year. 7 were bought all cash. One that was just over $5M had a mortgage of $4.8M from a Private Party Lender, 5 had mortgages of between $3M and $3.675M, 2 for about $2M and one for $1M. The high loan is a property that will likely be further developed and sold off as more than one house. So the $3.675M is likely the highest and that home sold for just under $5M. 3 were $3.5M to $3.675.

    So not quite $4M. But $3.5 to $3.675 doable.

    Required Disclosure. Data in this comment is hand calculated in Real Time by ARDELL and not compiled, verified or published by The Northwest Multiple Listing Service.

  217. 2467
    Eastsider says:

    By Whatsmyname @ 2452:

    Incorrect. $1MM could get you a $5mm house, but only $2mm in stock.

    I see Ardell just corrected you. LOL.

    If you leverage up, make sure you can pay the mortgage! Otherwise, you may end up losing your 30% ‘equity’ in the next recession. Just sayin’

  218. 2468
    richard says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 2463 – right now, people are buying house like crazy. I am amazed that buyer are not scared about waterfall stock market drop. Stock market has been the mouthpiece of Donald trump since he is in power. With dwindling stock market valuation and rise of Sanders, I don’t understand why people with majority of wealth from FANNG stock are not afraid of the negative impact on housing. I may misread eastside housing market entirely, people is just rich. The Geekwire article about average tech work comp 278K is really depressing. Simply put, the market is not for people like me with lower tier earning. The sad news is that san franciso is regaining steam in housing. I will closely watch bay area market. If it can not be the first domino to fall, then there is no hope in east side market to fall.

  219. 2469
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 2463 – Add the $1 in equity to a $3.5- $3.65 mortgage, and you are still well over $4 – which is far above $2.

    So tell us again how “$1m may soon get you a lot more stock than house”. LOL

    Also, 2nd request; help me with the argument that prolonged stock losses will surely result in RE losses later, and how that justifies a stock buying preference now.

  220. 2470
    richard says:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 2465 – you put 200K as downpayment for a million dollar home. it is levered bet. you put 200K in stock market it is non-levered bet. if house price and stock market go up at the same rate, probably you gain more in housing. If it go down, you lose more in housing. If you believe the house price and stock price go opposite way, you have to convince yourself how it is possible. I know there is a lagging factor on who leads who, but you have to convince yourself why buying today is better given clearly stock market is on shaking ground.
    You logic mess up bigly, on one hand you emphasize house is a shelter, on the other hand you imply the speculative nature of current housing market.

  221. 2471
    Eastsider says:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 2465
    You don’t own the house. You own $1m, or 30%, of the $3.5m house. $3.5m is not “well over $4(m)”. $1m is not going to get you a $4.5m house. Are you listening to Ardell?

    If owning 30% means owning the house, I can play the option game and leverage up to 20x too.

    You are not trolling very well today…

  222. 2472
    Eastsider says:

    RE: richard @ 2464

    Don’t we wish the world is rationale?

    If we enter the bear market, housing will suffer. (Erik will suffer too, unfortunately.)

  223. 2473
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: richard @ 2466 – Stock is essentially ownership in a particular collection of resources which are directed at providing something that people want and will pay for. A house is the same thing.

    Some people wanted buggy whips once; also the convenience of K-mart, the communication breakthrough of AOL, the gas and oil of Enron, loans from WAMU. Everyone wants shelter, location, access to utilities. It is the biggest, most universal market there is. It’s not without risk, but the same is true of stocks. When you own a house, you know the degree of leverage and you know the quality of management and the underlying physical assets. Except for diversification, that’s the biggest difference between a house and a stock.

    Looking to the post you cite; I do believe in diversification and in watching your leverage. Like most people, I have a 401K; so I am virtually always buying stocks. But be aware of the difference between the limitations you choose and the limitations on what is actually possible.

  224. 2474
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 2467 – First, Ardell is focused on what people are doing to get a $5m house, so it’s not a perfect match for what you can do with $1m. But certainly you can see that the 7 people who bought for cash were not doing that because only $0 loans are available for $5 m houses.

    But you additionally need to learn the difference between a mortgage and a house price. They are not the same thing. Though even if they were, you would still be dead wrong on how much house you can acquire vs how much stock. No matter how imprecise I get, I just can’t come close to how wrong you are.

    Second, the right to buy something is not ownership, does not give you current use, or earnings, or decision power. You could ask yourself how buying a house for yourself is a losing proposition for you, but buying a house for your landlord is winning. Or why banks can lend more aggressively on any kind of real estate (except raw land) than they can on stocks. But you won’t. And that’s good. You are entertaining and you are good for the rental market.

  225. 2475
    Eastsider says:

    By whatsmyname @ 2470:

    You could ask yourself how buying a house for yourself is a losing proposition for you, but buying a house for your landlord is winning.

    Remember 2007? Have you lost your mind?

    Or why banks can lend more aggressively on any kind of real estate (except raw land) than they can on stocks. But you won’t. And that’s good. You are entertaining and you are good for the rental market.

    whatsmyname: “loans from WAMU”

    I give up. LOL.

  226. 2476
    Blake says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 2471
    That was YEARS AGO Eastsider… A one time fluke!!

  227. 2477
    Whatsmyname says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 2471 – I had mortgaged rentals in 2007. My tenants have been paying those mortgages in all the years since. Thank God I didn’t have stock in WAMU.

  228. 2478
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Blake @ 2472
    Yes, I dread one time flukes. But they seem to happen every now and then in our short life span. Maybe they are no fluke after all!

  229. 2479
    Blake says:

    By Whatsmyname @ 2473:

    RE: Eastsider @ 2471 – I had mortgaged rentals in 2007. My tenants have been paying those mortgages in all the years since. Thank God I didn’t have stock in WAMU.

    I moved to Seattle in 2005 to be closer to my elderly parents. My father was a very successful investor and taught me a lot. But in 2007 I had been researching WAMU and finally convinced him to sell his holdings at $32/share! I saved him over $100k and he grew to trust me after that!

    I wish I’d convinced him to sell his GE… A “finance company in drag!”

  230. 2480
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Whatsmyname @ 2473

    I’m glad I held MSFT (or AMZN) shares in 2007. It is worth about 6x today. Your 2007 rental? A mere 1/3 higher in price according to Case Shiller. Very funny you give such a lousy example. Even the S&P500 has more than doubled since then.

  231. 2481
    Eastsider says:

    US 10yr treasury yield chart is downright ugly. It looks like it will breach 1.30% in the morning. Uncharted territory…

  232. 2482
    Whatsmyname says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 2476 – Rentals, with an s. I have stock funds too. So I have a good idea how they’ve done. I’m very pleased about your success with Microsoft (or Amazon, lol). Sad your great returns haven’t made you comfortable enough to buy a house . Perhaps it was the missing leverage.

  233. 2483
    S-Crow says:

    RE: Blake @ 2475 – It’s hard to comprehend for your average person out there just how much financial ruin there was. I wish people could have seen what Escrow firms were closing.

    I have a long term client that actually was in deep with mortgage fraud investigations during the go go days and subsequent carnage which really is an appropriate term. There was a time where I had considered doing consulting work (I’ve since regretted not doing it for some personal reasons) for some involved with government agencies and law firms. My client was in so deep that they eventually had to exit due to extreme stress and threats. We talked for probably an hour during one of our meetings about the experiences and it was really fascinating and discussing lenders and known servicing companies that had some very bad or fraudulent practices.

    I recall getting into an argument/debate (which I thoroughly lost) with my spouse regarding whether we should record transactions being funded by some of these lenders that are now in the dust bin of history. The reason is that we would be “released to record” by the lender and prior to being funded at the time which was normal practice. It was scary stuff and even scarier for purchases that would have to be unwound if the funds never arrived but recorded as a closed transaction. In hindsight we were exceptionally lucky. We never had a situation like that occur but we knew that when lenders started having their funding pulled (source of liquidity in the markets) it was game over for the real estate market. And it was.

    I still have clients with old WAMU accounts and now at Chase. When they provide me with their routing number for proceeds on a transaction I always say “old WAMU customer?” They just nod, yup.

  234. 2484
    S-Crow says:

    RE: Blake @ 2475 – It’s hard to comprehend for your average person out there just how much financial ruin there was. I wish people could have seen what Escrow firms were closing.

    I have a long term client that actually was in deep with mortgage fraud investigations during the go go days and subsequent carnage which really is an appropriate term. There was a time where I had considered doing consulting work (I’ve since regretted not doing it for some personal reasons) for some involved with government agencies and law firms. My client was in so deep that they eventually had to exit due to extreme stress and threats. We talked for probably an hour during one of our meetings about the experiences and it was really fascinating discussing lenders and known servicing companies that had some very bad or fraudulent practices.

    I recall getting into an argument/debate (which I thoroughly lost) with my spouse regarding whether we should record transactions being funded by some of these lenders that are now in the dust bin of history. The reason is that we would be “released to record” by the lender and prior to being funded at the time which was normal practice. It was scary stuff and even scarier for purchases that would have to be unwound if the funds never arrived but recorded as a closed transaction. In hindsight we were exceptionally lucky. We never had a situation like that occur but we knew that when lenders started having their funding pulled (source of liquidity in the markets) it was game over for the real estate market. And it was.

    I still have clients with old WAMU accounts and now at Chase. When they provide me with their routing number for proceeds on a transaction I always say “old WAMU customer?” They just nod, yup.

    Reply — Quote

  235. 2485
    QA Observer says:

    The Black Swan Event is Upon Us.

    Multiple property owners: hold that property as long as you can. Haha!

  236. 2486
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Whatsmyname @ 2478 – Unlike rentals, it takes little effort to invest in stocks. Rentals require constant management/repair/maintenance. Sure, rentals have a place in diversification but they have underperformed stocks historically.

  237. 2487
    Whatsmyname says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 2480 – That’s not been my experience.

  238. 2488
    Whatsmyname says:

    RE: Whatsmyname @ 2481 – If I may clarify. Rentals are more work than stocks, but cash on cash return over the long term has been better on the rentals.

  239. 2489

    Its like the “chicken with its head cut off” Running in Circles for Minutes Before It Dies

    RE investing during a day to day “MASSIVE” stock market crash [trillions folks] is like putting all your chips on the poker table with a pair of fives….better be a good bluffer.

    I’m glad I don’t have to predict accurately, how can anyone do that now?

    IMO the 2000-3000 shift downward in the DOW day to day due to “the coronavirus scare” is clearly non-partisan too, nothing Trump could do to stop it, albeit Trump’s current banning aircraft flights to terrorist nations should add allies South Korea and Italy too to the list Iran enemy list, due to concentrations in these nations. This could help if its mostly aircraft infections to adults [type 3 virus spread path]. Chinese business travel must cease, use computer meetings instead. Telework is not fiscally a good alternative, it will destroy our economy in general.

    “…The mortality rate amongst patients admitted to hospital is around 3%. It may become higher, because many of those patients are not yet cured. But we also have almost no idea how many people have caught It, thought it was flu, and got better after some days in bed without involving a doctor. ..”

    IOWs we don’t know most of the prognosis trends, its foggier than an Ocean Shores’ summer day…

    Many [most of the victims???] may of had the new strain coronavirus undetected too, they had mild symptoms that went away after a a week of rest at home. I hear keeping the heat high inside helps kill “pandemic” type 3 adult flu too, so set your thermostat to like 75-80 degrees if you get a fever. BTW, China has no user apartment thermostats and the State controls apartment temperatures at cold levels, my sister lived there and she told me the “Communist socialistic” state gave her no heat in October [assuming it hasn’t changed since her visit in the early 90s]. Last I heard even the test for the new virus is only available in three American states; so the raw data is fog. Maybe that’s why China got hit so hard, Socialized medicine and apartment heat….LOL….the Obama Ebola scare same scenario, get medical from “private insurance” American doctors versus 3rd world country socialized medicine [like Africa] and live…LOL

    “…The futures of salmon, orcas and hydropower are at stake as federal agencies take a deep look at removing dams on the Lower Snake River. They’ll release details tomorrow of their first such assessment in 20 years, and the public will get to have a say. Here’s why this matters so much and what the possibilities are….”

    SWE’s take: Its either fish come back or hopeless OVERPOPULATION growth….you choose.

    “…Seattle must mobilize to improve public safety and save downtown’s vitality before the current spate of empty storefronts becomes permanent, writes The Seattle Times editorial board…”

    SWE’s Take: I was in Akron Ohio in the 90s….the shops were all boarded up windows and downtown looked like a proverbial “ghost town” from outsourcing. Bruce Springsteen’s “My Home Town” lyrics were popular back then…”and those jobs ain’t coming back”…

    Good News: The rain stopped, I got out and mowed the lawn yesterday and my electric lawn mower Lithium Battery still had power left over from last Fall to finish 95% of it. Be sure to discharge your Lithiums 100% before charging or they DRASTICALLY lose capacity. I can finish the rest today now…

  240. 2490
    k says:

    By Whatsmyname @ 2478:

    RE: Eastsider @ 2476 Perhaps it was the missing leverage.

    1. I always wonder why would one even compare leveraged RE returns vs non leveraged stock? Sure one could leverage RE at 4x and same could be done with stocks or you could leverage neither. But imo it’s only fair to compare apples to apples.

    2. Comparing RE returns in Seattle to stocks in general is not quite fair either. Seattle should be compared to Amazon rather than s&p since both are lucky outliers. For the perspective – many major metros like NYC, DC, Chicago are still down since 2007 peak in nominal prices. When inflation-adjusted both national case-shiller and most metros are still down. Seattle is a rare outlier which is up but by less than 10%.

  241. 2491
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Whatsmyname @ 2481 – Or you are a lousy stock investor LOL.

  242. 2492

    RE: k @ 2484
    So true K

    I’d add that stock investing [RE too???] should only occur with money you can afford to gamble with, not the whole pot.

  243. 2493
    Whatsmyname says:

    By Eastsider @ 2485:

    RE: Whatsmyname @ 2481 – Or you are a lousy stock investor LOL.

    Not so bad that I can’t comfortably hold multiple houses. How about you?

  244. 2494
    Whatsmyname says:

    RE: k @ 2484 – If you don’t think the comparison legitimate, it’s a surprise you haven’t brought that up with Eastsider long ago. Minor subpoint, you can only leverage stock at 2x.

    Your 2nd point mostly illustrates the limitations of CSI. You can restrict your comparisons however you like. But is the intent to make choices or to make you feel good.?

  245. 2495
    Joe says:

    When they start closing down schools and workplaces in the US, we’ll begin to see a stock market and RE drop. So far, it’s a mere tickle.

    The S&P 500 sliced through its 50-day and 100-day moving averages like butter. Today, it bounced off the 200-day, but it is convincing nobody. With lots of negative headlines slowly but surely coming out on the virus, and likelihood of spread across the US, the worst is yet to come. Forget about the v-shaped stock market recovery any time soon. This will take months to play out, which is more than enough time to wash out current speculators, for a long time.

    People from infected areas are still entering the US by the thousands every day. How many Americans are vacationing in Northern Italy and Japan as we speak? Plus, we know world governments are understating the impacts, as they always do.

    People in Seattle, an international community, should be vigilant. The last thing on your mind should be buying real estate, not knowing what degree of layoffs are ahead in the near term. I very much doubt companies are going to absorb the financial difficulties caused by the coronavirus. They’ll lay off first and ask questions later. At a minimum, they will not be hiring for a while.

    Be careful, and worry about your health first. The financial consequences of this are of no concern if you avoid big commitments and aren’t overextended in stocks or RE. This is when proper diversification and allocations matter.

  246. 2496
    Eastsider says:

    By Whatsmyname @ 2487:

    Not so bad that I can’t comfortably hold multiple houses.

    You would have been far more wealthier today (with no rental related work/stress) had you own AMZN/MSFT/S&P in 2007 instead of rentals. Regardless, you are happy so that’s good.

  247. 2497
    Eastsider says:

    By Eastsider @ 2477:

    US 10yr treasury yield chart is downright ugly. It looks like it will breach 1.30% in the morning. Uncharted territory…

    Sure enough. It went as low as 1.255% earlier this morning. Now stocks are on track to be in negative territory YOY in coming days. RE will follow after that. Low rates will not help prices here, unfortunately.

  248. 2498
    Whatsmyname says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 2490 – Would you really recommend all in undiversified speculation on a company that had never shown a profit? What company would you recommend for that today? Or do we just go all in on hindsight.

  249. 2499
    Blake says:

    By Joe @ 2489:

    When they start closing down schools and workplaces in the US, we’ll begin to see a stock market and RE drop. So far, it’s a mere tickle.

    The S&P 500 sliced through its 50-day and 100-day moving averages like butter. Today, it bounced off the 200-day, but it is convincing nobody. With lots of negative headlines slowly but surely coming out on the virus, and likelihood of spread across the US, the worst is yet to come. Forget about the v-shaped stock market recovery any time soon. This will take months to play out, which is more than enough time to wash out current speculators, for a long time.

    People from infected areas are still entering the US by the thousands every day. How many Americans are vacationing in Northern Italy and Japan as we speak? Plus, we know world governments are understating the impacts, as they always do.

    People in Seattle, an international community, should be vigilant. The last thing on your mind should be buying real estate, not knowing what degree of layoffs are ahead in the near term. I very much doubt companies are going to absorb the financial difficulties caused by the coronavirus. They’ll lay off first and ask questions later. At a minimum, they will not be hiring for a while.

    Be careful, and worry about your health first. The financial consequences of this are of no concern if you avoid big commitments and aren’t overextended in stocks or RE. This is when proper diversification and allocations matter.

    Agree… the virus is not contained and not containable for various reasons (i.e. long incubation period with few visible symptoms!) “Only a 2% mortality rate”… so if 5% of the people in the world get it we’ll only lose – ummm – 70 million people! The Dow Industrials are currently down about 10% in just 6 trading sessions! Ouch… I sold almost all my family’s stocks last week and Monday morning and I am waiting, but I am not sure where the bottom will be. The virus is disrupting supply chains (we’ll start seeing shortages for various items in he next month or so) and travel/tourism of course. But it is not just the virus, because the world economy was already in bad shape before this hit. The virus is just the black swan/tipping point.

    Luckily we have first class leadership! :-)
    https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-02-27/trump-coronavirus-press-conference-adds-to-political-risks?srnd=premium
    Believe it or not, I was all ready to praise Donald Trump this time. I really thought when he announced a press conference for Wednesday evening that he would manage to stick to a reasonable script, and there were very promising rumors that he was prepared to make an excellent choice for a new coronavirus czar.

    Why? Because so much was on the line for Trump, and what he had to do was so easy. And while he hasn’t done it often, and I didn’t expect it to last much beyond the initial statement, he has at times managed to read a reasonable speech as written. Surely with the markets in turmoil, and the nation poised on the edge of panic, it would be obvious even to him that this was not the time for airing his grievances, repeating his usual insults, and rambling on like some leader of a banana republic who long since lost touch with reality.

    Well, if you watched Trump’s press conference, you know I was dead wrong.

    Yes, he used his usual juvenile nicknames and petty insults for the Democrats he’s going to have to work with. Yes, he blamed the stock market drop on Monday and Tuesday on — wait for it — the Democratic debate Tuesday night. Yes, he repeatedly praised himself for solving the problem (setting up a potential “Mission Accomplished” moment in the likely event the pandemic spreads in the U.S.) and had administration officials praise him as well. All entirely inappropriate and counterproductive.

    But it was worse than that. He was at times barely coherent even for someone who knew what he was trying to say. I can’t imagine what it was like for the bulk of the nation, folks who only sometimes pay attention to politics but might have tuned in because they want to be reassured that the government is on top of the problem.
    (end quote)

    He is a child… a disturbed child-man.
    As I watched his ridiculous press conference yesterday I flipped to Bloomberg to watch the Dow Futures tumble. I’m glad he said Tuesday that the virus was no big deal and contained. That may be his Waterloo or “Mission Accomplished” moment! Let’s hope so!

  250. 2500

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