NWMLS: New listings dry up as home prices plateau

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The NWMLS published their August stats yesterday, so let’s take a look at how the month shook out for the housing market.

As we mentioned in yesterday’s preview post, the biggest story is a sudden, renewed shortage of inventory.

Before we get into our detailed monthly stats, here’s a quick look at their press release.

Home Buyers Seeking Affordability Are Expanding Search Outside Greater Seattle Job Centers

Depleted inventory continues to frustrate would-be buyers in Western Washington. Many of these potential homeowners are expanding their search beyond the major job centers in King County, according to market watchers who commented on the latest statistics from Northwest Multiple Listing Service.

“While August is always a slower time for listings and sales, what is really surprising this year is the decrease in new listings taken, while pending sales increased,” observed Mike Grady, president and COO of Coldwell Banker Bain.

Multiple offers are still commonplace with many buyers walking away disappointed, according to Wilson. “Traffic is strong at open houses and our average market time is still very low for correctly priced homes,” he added.

“The August numbers offered a few interesting nuggets,” stated OB Jacobi, president of Windermere Real Estate. “The Seattle area housing market is still coming off the ‘sugar high’ that we saw last summer, but homes sales and prices are stabilizing, which is reassuring to both buyers and sellers.”

Quick note: According to data from Redfin, multiple offers are far from “commonplace” now. In August fewer than 10 percent of offers in the Seattle area faced competition. (Disclosure: Tim works for Redfin.)

However, new listings are indeed way down. Let’s get into the data to quantify the drop.

CAUTION

NWMLS monthly reports include an undisclosed and varying number of
sales from previous months in their pending and closed sales statistics.

Here’s your King County SFH summary, with the arrows to show whether the year-over-year direction of each indicator is favorable or unfavorable news for buyers and sellers (green = favorable, red = unfavorable):

August 2019 Number MOM YOY Buyers Sellers
Active Listings 4,194 -4.7% -10.1%
Closed Sales 2,531 -3.9% +6.1%
SAAS (?) 1.11 -4.8% -22.9%
Pending Sales 2,623 -10.1% +7.9%
Months of Supply 1.66 -0.7% -15.3%
Median Price* $670,000 -1.5% +0.1%

Here’s the graph of inventory with each year overlaid on the same chart.

King County SFH Inventory

Inventory fell five percent from July to August. During the same period a year ago, inventory rose 12 percent. The 10 percent year-over-year drop in inventory is the biggest decline we’ve seen since January 2018.

Here’s the chart of new listings:

King County SFH New Listings

New listings were down 10 percent from July to August, and were down 18 percent from a year ago. Only 2011 and 2012 saw fewer new listings in August than we had in 2019.

Here’s your closed sales yearly comparison chart:

King County SFH Closed Sales

Closed sales fell four percent between July and August, and were up six percent from last year. Closed sales have been in a fairly tight range between about 2,400 and 2,800 in August every year since 2013, and this year fell right in the middle of that range at 2,531.

King County SFH Pending Sales

Pending sales fell 10 percent month-over-month but were up eight percent year-over-year.

Here’s the supply/demand YOY graph. “Demand” in this chart is represented by closed sales, which have had a consistent definition throughout the decade (unlike pending sales from NWMLS).

King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY

The good news for buyers with respect to housing supply was short-lived. Supply is back in the red.

Here’s the median home price YOY change graph:

King County SFH YOY Price Change

Home prices dipped a bit last month, but not by as much as they did this time last year, so we ended up back in the black year-over-year, just barely.

And lastly, here is the chart comparing King County SFH prices each month for every year back to 1994 (not adjusted for inflation).

King County SFH Prices

August 2019: $670,000
August 2018: $669,000
July 2007: $481,000 (previous cycle high)

Here’s the article about these numbers from the Seattle Times: The market’s chilled out, but Seattle home prices still too hot for many first-time buyers

0.00 avg. rating (0% score) - 0 votes

About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. Tim also hosts the weekly improv comedy sci-fi podcast Dispatches from the Multiverse.

2,046 comments:

  1. 1001
    OA says:

    By Blake @ 989:

    RE: Beano @ 988
    OMG… Two substantive comments in a row!! Way to go Beano and Deerhawke! I was about to throw in the towel :-)

    lol love it!

  2. 1002
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 987RE: Beano @ 988
    I agree. Completely.

  3. 1003
    Eastsider says:

    RE: uwp @ 985 – You should also include the closed sales ranking (and real prices) to give a more complete picture.

  4. 1004
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 987 – What a long list of justifications for high prices. Let me boil it down to just one factor for you – interest rates.

    Now that interest rates are heading towards 4% for 30yr mortgages, all justifications you gave are going to crumble shortly… SAD!

  5. 1005
    Justme says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 987

    And that was the standard bi-weekly missive by Deerhawke. As usual, a putrid mixture of historical revisionism, falsehoods, outright lies and soothing sweet nothings whispered in the ear of his next homebuying victim. Bon Appetit!

  6. 1006
    uwp says:

    By Eastsider @ 992:

    RE: uwp @ 985 – You should also include the closed sales ranking (and real prices) to give a more complete picture.

    You are welcome to do this. I don’t have a spreadsheet with all the numbers, I’ve just been looking at Tim’s charts. The sales numbers are a lot more clumped and difficult to split out from year to year without going back to each individual post over the years.

    I don’t present that ranking as any sort of endorsement to buy at the bottom of the list, or sell at the top. From a quick glance there isn’t much of a trend. 2008/2007 were obviously bad times to buy, but 2010/2002 were pretty good (close to the bottom price-wise and tons of inventory!). While 2017 was not an awesome time to buy ( at least compared to the years just above it).

    I’m in the same camp as Deerhawke. Whatever trend happened with inventory in the 2nd half of 2018 has pretty clearly ended. Something might get it going again; recession, interest rates, election uncertainty (no one can predict the future), but as of now, it seems to be a pretty normal market. I continue to believe that if you can afford it, and plan to stay for 7+ years, buying isn’t a bad idea.

  7. 1007
    whatsmyname says:

    By Eastsider @ 993:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 987 – What a long list of justifications for high prices. Let me boil it down to just one factor for you – interest rates.

    Now that interest rates are heading towards 4% for 30yr mortgages, all justifications you gave are going to crumble shortly… SAD!

    Isn’t that the interest rate scenario from very late 2016 going into 2017? I thought prices did pretty good in 2017.

    https://ycharts.com/indicators/30_year_mortgage_rate

  8. 1008
    whatsmyname says:

    By Justme @ 994:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 987

    And that was the standard bi-weekly missive by Deerhawke. As usual, a putrid mixture of historical revisionism, falsehoods, outright lies and soothing sweet nothings whispered in the ear of his next homebuying victim. Bon Appetit!

    In fairness, maybe you could point out a specific falsehood or an outright lie so that Deerhawke would have an opportunity to address them. Perhaps you could ask a question about something he said that doesn’t appear consistent with other things he’s said. Then you could see if he answers, or justruns away. I always think that people who persistently refuse to answer a simple question have already given you an answer, if you know what I mean.

  9. 1009
    Voight-kampff says:

    RE: Justme @ 994

    The difference between Justme and deerhawke is we know deerhawke is a builder with skin in the game. What is your position, other than trying to knock deerhawkes position? would you like to buy a house? Or are you like Batman, trying to right the wrongs you see here in Gotham North West? I enjoy seeing different perspectives, including yours, but I’m genuinely curious what your interest in Realestate is?

  10. 1010
    Erik says:

    RE: Beano @ 988
    Totally agree.

  11. 1011
    Erik says:

    RE: Beano @ 988RE: whatsmyname @ 991RE: Blake @ 989RE: Deerhawke @ 987
    We are all in agreement for once guys. This is amazing. We can form a team and gang up on those that do not have the same viewpoint as we do.

    Target #1 is justme. Attack on 3. 1…. 2…. 3! Attack!!!!!

  12. 1012
    Eastsider says:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 996 – Unless you are suggesting that rates don’t matter in this market, i.e. prices will continue the upward climb, you are not saying much. My take is at 4%, 30yr mortgage ratess will cause prices to stall and to resume the decline as rates move into mid- and high 4%.

  13. 1013
    OA says:

    By Voight-kampff @ 998:

    RE: Justme @ 994

    The difference between Justme and deerhawke is we know deerhawke is a builder with skin in the game. What is your position, other than trying to knock deerhawkes position? would you like to buy a house? Or are you like Batman, trying to right the wrongs you see here in Gotham North West? I enjoy seeing different perspectives, including yours, but I’m genuinely curious what your interest in Realestate is?

    Good luck getting an answer from him, he’ll just ignore your question. I’ve asked similar questions like “are you a homeowner,” etc. Of course he is not obligated to answer me but I think he’d get a little more credibility around here if he made his situation a little more known, because the bias he holds is obvious…

    My guess says that he’s been looking to buy for the past 5-10 years but has never pulled the trigger because he assumed we’ve always been in a bubble. And prices have only gone up since then which unfortunately have added to his frustration and lead him to attacking people here that might show the slightest disagreement with him.

    I have an extended family member that back in 2012 was absolutely sure that prices peaked during that year and the bubble would burst, so he kept waiting. Unfortunately to this day he doesn’t own and at this point can’t afford even half the house that he would’ve afforded in 2012. Let’s just say real estate is a topic I avoid talking to him whenever I see him, it never ends well.

  14. 1014
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1000 – Rates do matter. So do a host of other factors, i.e. inflation, personal economic expectations, location specific considerations such as population growth, and the drivers behind it. My take is that there will be modest price growth next year. Certainly not like in 2017, but 2017 does provide a recent factual demonstration of net price growth where the mortgage rate quickly climbed to the 4% and beyond early in the year.

  15. 1015
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 1002

    Transaction costs matter. Interest rates. Tax rates. Real estate agency fees. The lot.

    But these things don’t completely trump the basics of supply and demand.

    Eastsider, you see that others here have put out their predictions. if you feel confident in your predictions for the spring market, put them out there. What are your numbers?

  16. 1016

    Grab Your Mug, Fill It With Yuban, Its Time to Read:

    The Seattle Times
    MORNING BRIEF
    Thursday, November 14, 2019
    Coffee bean cask inside Chicago Starbucks Reserve Roastery
    Inside the world’s largest Starbucks, opening tomorrow
    The five-story coffee palace opening in Chicago has a towering coffee-bean cask that resembles a rocket on a launchpad, a spiral escalator, coffee bars tiled in 22 types of marble and more. One thing you won’t see much: the green-and-white logo. Gawk at the glitzy photos. (Photo courtesy of Starbucks)
    NEED TO KNOW
    Even people who should know better are getting tricked by a Costco coupon scam. It’s been around for a while, but as it catches fire again on Facebook, identity-scam experts are busy explaining why you shouldn’t click on it. Oh, and that offer of free beer? Skip it, too.

    Boeing is ditching its failed robots and relying more on human machinists. The robots were meant to automate assembly of the 777 fuselage, but the system was messy from the start. A video shows how it was supposed to work.

    A teenager’s parents have sued Seattle Children’s hospital, alleging that its mold problem caused an infection that left their son disabled. The hospital said it’s closing all operating rooms on its Seattle campus for at least five days to tackle the recurring problem, which since last year has killed one patient and sickened at least six others.

    A YMCA leader is calling for action against two white Kirkland police officers after they roughly arrested a 14-year-old black boy, shoved the center’s black director and threatened another black teen with a Taser “in a place that is supposed to be safe for teens.” Some of the incident was captured on surveillance video.

    A new revelation implicated President Donald Trump as Americans got their first up-close look at the historic impeachment struggle yesterday. One of the surprises: a Northwest hotelier’s phone call to Trump, which former U.S. officials called a stunning security breach. Here’s a quick look at what’s next when hearings resume tomorrow. How long will this last? Maybe long enough to scramble the presidential primaries.
    Rise and shine! And subscribe. We depend on subscribers to fund our award-winning independent journalism. Subscriptions start at just $1 a week.

    SUBSCRIBE TODAY
    THROWBACK THURSDAY
    Horse-drawn carriage in Seattle
    You’re looking at one of Seattle’s first garbage trucks. The booming city was awash in trash, and fires burned at dumps everywhere, according to HistoryLink.org. Genesee Park, a Green Lake playfield, the Japanese Garden at the Arboretum and a busy Ballard intersection all sit on abandoned landfills, according to the site. Can you guess when this photo was taken? Check your answer and learn about the millions of stories that Seattle’s photo archives hold. (Photo: Seattle Municipal Archives)
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    Seattle has captured a dubious new honor: It’s the nation’s gloomiest city, and the current forecast backs this up. Here’s how the “gloom index” was calculated, and where else you can’t escape it. It’s a good time to break out fellow Seattleites’ tips for coping.

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    Seahawk Tyler Lockett is back home after two nights in the hospital for a leg injury and a flight in Jody Allen’s private jet. Coach Pete Carroll is talking about his return to the field Nov. 24. The news is less rosy for a former Seahawk, Malik McDowell, who’s been ordered to spend nearly a year in jail and write four essays.

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    Produced by Advertising Publications
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    EDITORIAL/OPINION
    Promising strategies for addressing the nation’s epidemic of gun violence won’t depend on healing a bitterly divided Congress or aligning mixed public sentiments about gun control, The Seattle Times editorial board writes.
    TODAY’S WEATHER
    Cloudy. High 55. Low 48. Sunrise 7:13. Sunset 4:33.
    TODAY IN HISTORY
    The first bicycle ever seen in Washington Territory arrives in Seattle in 1879, aboard a steamer from San Francisco. Seattle merchant William Pumphrey displays the boy-sized two-wheeler at his store at 617 Front St. (later First Avenue). Four days later, Jules Lipsky buys the bicycle for his son. The Weekly Intelligencer newspaper predicts, “Another season will find many bicycles here in active use.” (Compiled from HistoryLink.org)…”

    SWE’s Take:

    A second hand office snoop informed the press he/she overheard that a NW hotel company called Trump, it sounds like it must be Russian spies or something illegal to me ….LOL, this news?

    Grab a delicious burger at Seattle’s downtown restaurant, add in parking and tips, and gas….about a $20-30 Jumbo Jack…..LOL

    Go for gun control with confiscation, and watch your opponent cream you in the next election…

    Dreary Weather lately, its warmer, but it seems colder with the high humidity fog and rain lately. I hope your home’s roof isn’t leaking. I’m seeing more regurgitated for sale signs by relatively new buyers [ owned the home less than 5 years] with cold feet…they probably found out the $10-15K roofs are old enough to need replacing after 30 years…

  17. 1017
    don says:

    RE: Voight-kampff @ 998

    Crickets only…

  18. 1018
    richard says:

    RE: OA @ 1001 – feel sorry for your family member. someone got left behind…

  19. 1019
    whatsmyname says:

    Interesting article in yesterday’s WSJ. The senior housing business isn’t doing as well as previously expected because technology changes are allowing more and more seniors to stay in their houses. Could be a small part of the inventory picture.

  20. 1020
    Eastsider says:

    By Deerhawke @ 1003:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 1002

    Transaction costs matter. Interest rates. Tax rates. Real estate agency fees. The lot.

    But these things don’t completely trump the basics of supply and demand.

    Eastsider, you see that others here have put out their predictions. if you feel confident in your predictions for the spring market, put them out there. What are your numbers?

    I haven’t seen specific forecast from anyone, including you. OTHO, I just wrote in comment #1000 “My take is at 4%, 30yr mortgage rates will cause prices to stall and to resume the decline as rates move into mid- and high 4%”. Do you disagree?

    I also want to point out that the FED’s rate cuts this year have done little to slow the decline of new home prices. Do you expect prices to climb anytime soon?

  21. 1021
    OA says:

    By richard @ 1006:

    RE: OA @ 1001 – feel sorry for your family member. someone got left behind…

    Yupp, that’s why I tell family and friends to be smart financially when buying a home. Don’t take on more than you can handle, and assume you’ll live there longterm. Also, trying to predict and time the market is an impossible task.

    However I do think it’s smart to observe on the sidelines to see what happens here locally in the next 12-18 months with prices…who knows…?

  22. 1022

    RE: don @ 1005
    Speaking of Silence With “Crickets” Only

    The impeachment hearing asked a simple question, “on what criminal indictment” court evidence with due process can we impeach the President? No one in the room peeped a word, because no one had the answer. LOL

    Its like asking how can Seattle politicians that continue to raise taxes without reason and still expect us to stay and pay anyway? LOL

    We must zip our mouths up on “their” important questions regarding Fascism and local taxes and just believe the crooked pundits with their mealy mouthed “politician” attorney lies/fees no one understands or can afford?

  23. 1023

    Time to Turn the Impeachment Trial News TV Off and Read a Book Instead, Time for your Yuban and Read:

    “…The Seattle Times
    MORNING BRIEF
    Friday, November 15, 2019
    Makah Tribe hunts a whale in 1999
    Makah Tribe aims to hunt gray whales off Washington again
    More than two decades ago, Makah tribal members killed a 30-foot gray whale off the Olympic Peninsula, igniting a legal battle that’s taking center stage in Seattle this week. The tribe wants to hunt again under its 1855 treaty with the U.S. government. It’s backed by a federal agency — but opposed by conservation groups that say climate change is already stressing the whales. Here’s what’s at stake. (Photo: Alan Berner / The Seattle Times, 1999)
    NEED TO KNOW
    Will Jeff Bezos buy the Seahawks? Amazon’s founder and the NFL are reportedly keen on the idea. The Seahawks are owned by the late Paul Allen’s trust, headed by Allen’s sister, Jody.

    A man is in critical condition after police tased him twice in Everett yesterday. Police say the man had two guns. Detectives with a Snohomish County task force are investigating.

    When will your car-tab taxes plunge, now that voters have passed Initiative 976? They could start dipping soon. But when it comes to the taxes that draw the most ire, relief probably won’t come quickly (or, perhaps, at all).

    A Seattle Police Department captain has been arrested on suspicion of sexual exploitation. He’s on administrative leave after an undercover vice operation.

    “President Trump wanted her gone.” A fired U.S. ambassador is on the stand this morning in the second day of historic impeachment hearings. Marie Yovanovitch says she was told to “watch my back” and then suddenly recalled from Ukraine in a series of events that sounded alarms about the president. Watch her testimony and check back for updates.
    Rise and shine! And subscribe. We depend on subscribers to fund our award-winning independent journalism. Subscriptions start at just $1 a week.

    SUBSCRIBE TODAY
    SEATTLE’S 10 BEST BITES OF 2019
    Pasta at Carrello
    Our food writers set out to find the best eating at all kinds of places, run by all kinds of people, at all kinds of price points. Here are their top dishes at new restaurants around the Seattle area this year — and a heaping helping of old favorites, too. (Photo: Ken Lambert / The Seattle Times)
    WHAT WE’RE TALKING ABOUT
    Oops! WSDOT accidentally told drivers to halt and evacuate the Highway 99 tunnel during rush hour yesterday. Here’s the interesting part: They didn’t listen.

    Younger Seattle voters waited until the last minute, then drove late surges for progressive candidates in the pivotal City Council elections, data shows. This phenomenon may be snowballing as campaigns pour more resources into Election Day turnout.

    Old dogs might teach us new tricks. Scientists are looking for 10,000 pooches of all kinds for the largest-ever study of aging in canines. They hope to shed light on human longevity, too, as they test an anti-aging pill.

    Sound Transit is dropping the name “Red Line” on its light-rail corridor because it evoked redlining, the historical practice of denying home loans and ownership to nonwhite families in sections of Seattle and other cities. What should the new name be? A few ideas have surfaced.

    How to get rid of stuff after 45 years in the same house: One couple contemplated the enormous task and decided to throw a “downsizing party,” celebrating the memories as each item went out the door.
    LATEST LIFE STORIES

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    Seattle landlords will have to accept the first qualified applicant for a rental unit, after the state Supreme Court upheld the city’s first-come, first-served law for renters. The law, believed to be the first of its kind in the nation, is meant to prevent discrimination. Some landlords argued the law violated their rights by restricting their ability to choose renters.

    Robots could be whizzing around overhead as you shop in a new Amazon grocery store. Analysts are buzzing about how the commerce giant might reshape the shopping experience with its latest big move. Meanwhile, Amazon’s quest for more and cheaper products has created a monster flea market of fakes; can you spot the fakes and the real deals?

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    Speaking of raining cats and dogs, let’s lighten up with a few fun reads:

    Meet Narwhal, the cute unicorn puppy. He doesn’t seem to notice the tail growing out of his face.
    Viktor the 22-pound cat was too tubby to fly commercial, so his owner sneaked in a decoy cat. Then he made a very expensive mistake.
    Bad kitty: A rogue cat named after a pornographer has been sowing chaos with his repeated prison breaks, often setting his cat comrades free in the process. Watch his devious antics.
    A bride-to-be was swept away by this radical marriage proposal, and so was the ring.

    Produced by Advertising Publications
    Before the Thanksgiving rush, make sure your basic kitchen tools are up to snuff. Here’s what you need and where to upgrade, including a bar cart to keep family out of the kitchen so you can tackle the turkey.
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    As the most experienced presidential candidate in the 2020 race, former Vice President Joe Biden is uniquely qualified to elevate the discussion of saving America’s free press, writes The Seattle Times editorial board.
    TODAY’S WEATHER
    Rain, but at least it’s Friday. High 57. Low 48. Sunrise 7:14. Sunset 4:32.
    TODAY IN HISTORY
    The Lewis and Clark Expedition reaches the Pacific Ocean at the mouth of the Columbia River in 1805, 18 months and one day after leaving St. Louis in search of the “Northwest Passage” to the sea. The site is marked by a state park near what is Chinook, Pacific County, on Highway 101. Captains Meriwether Lewis and William Clark wanted to find a short, easy portage that would connect the Missouri River with the Columbia. Instead, they found a daunting range of mountains that took weeks to cross. Lewis and Clark achieve many of their objectives, including following the Columbia to the sea and laying the groundwork for Western expansion. (Compiled from HistoryLink.org)…”

    SWE’s Take

    Read Michael Crichton’s 1992 Red Sun…its a great book about the Japanese and their love for trade wars against America….the Boeing CEO should read it too….LOL

    The American Native Indians had plenty of whales to feed on, before NWO OVERPOPULATION sewage drainage in Seattle made them extinct, like the Orcas.

  24. 1024
    Bumble says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 1011

    Friday Fun Fact:

    Are you curious how many comments SWE has posted on this single thread? I was curious.

    The Answer: 115 comments

  25. 1025
    kenmorem says:

    By Bumble @ 1012:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 1011

    Friday Fun Fact:

    Are you curious how many comments SWE has posted on this single thread? I was curious.

    The Answer: 115 comments

    lock him up

  26. 1026
    uwp says:

    By kenmorem @ 1013:

    By Bumble @ 1012:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 1011

    Friday Fun Fact:

    Are you curious how many comments SWE has posted on this single thread? I was curious.

    The Answer: 115 comments

    lock him up

    But we will have mercy, and include a steaming mug of Yuban in his cell.

  27. 1027
    Justme says:

    Buyer willingness keeps falling

    https://twitter.com/coqumragep279/status/1195454800344702976

    Buyer willingness in the King County,WA (Seattle+burbs) housing market dropped sharply last year and reached lows not seen since end of 2013. This year it looks like willingness will reach even lower lows. Many offerings are severely overpriced and buyers are distinctly disinterested. Only about 1/3 of listings get sold during the last several months, as documented in an earlier tweet this week. #buyerstrike

  28. 1028
    SeattleBubble says:

    RE: Justme @ 1015
    DOW and S&P500 are all time high. Like Y2K, people will rotate their equity from wall street to housing market.

  29. 1029
    Justme says:

    RE: SeattleBubble @ 1016

    LOL. Stock market hit all-time highs several times this summer (except Amazon and Boeing, of course).
    But still, these supposedly wealthy stock-flush buyers exhibited a lower and lower willingness to buy.

    I guess your theory is wrong. And by the way, 2019 is nothing like 1999. That was the dot-com bubble. This is the everything bubble.

    Now go rotate your equity.

  30. 1030
    Eastsider says:

    By SeattleBubble @ 1016:

    RE: Justme @ 1015
    DOW and S&P500 are all time high. Like Y2K, people will rotate their equity from wall street to housing market.

    Haha… This.

    “On October 9, 2007, the Dow hit its pre-recession high and closed at 14,164.43. By March 5, 2009, it had dropped more than 50% to 6,594.44.”
    https://www.thebalance.com/stock-market-crash-of-2008-3305535

  31. 1031
    whatsmyname says:

    By Justme @ 1015:

    Buyer willingness keeps falling

    https://twitter.com/coqumragep279/status/1195454800344702976

    Buyer willingness in the King County,WA (Seattle+burbs) housing market dropped sharply last year and reached lows not seen since end of 2013. This year it looks like willingness will reach even lower lows. Many offerings are severely overpriced and buyers are distinctly disinterested. Only about 1/3 of listings get sold during the last several months, as documented in an earlier tweet this week. #buyerstrike

    Percentage homes selling in 2 weeks may look like the definition of “buyer willingness” to some, but that’s in the eyes of the beholder. Some of us think how many homes are selling each month is a better measure. Nevermind, either way, homes are selling much in bigger numbers this year than last, and inventory is shrinking like crazy. Did you notice we just passed under the all important 3,000 level?

    It seems like justyesterday the crowds were asking why your various sterling ornaments look like turds with silver paint, and no one could get an answer. Yet here you are today with something new and shiny.

    And what is coqumrage? Is it the feeling you get when you drive by that house you wanted in 2014?

  32. 1032
    Erik says:

    RE: SeattleBubble @ 1016
    Hedge funds are back at the auction in king County. I heard blackstone was there last week and I talked to a gentleman from granite today. I asked him why the hedge fund is buying at the auction and he said because prices dipped. I just said “yeah, same here.” I suspect prices will go up a lot more before we have a real downturn fwiw.

  33. 1033
    Erik says:

    RE: kenmorem @ 1013
    Atleast SWE invests in real estate. Easy for you to cast stones chicken little.

  34. 1034
    uwp says:

    By Justme @ 1017:

    RE: SeattleBubble @ 1016

    LOL. Stock market hit all-time highs several times this summer (except Amazon and Boeing, of course).

    I guess this needs to be said, but the stock market continually hitting all-time highs, is, uh, not bad news.

    (It means it keeps going up.

  35. 1035
    Erik says:

    RE: OA @ 1009
    I completely agree with your first statement. Do not bite off more than you can chew.

    I completely disagree with your second statement that you cannot predict the market. If you ignored everything and only looked at supply/demand, you would be much better at predicting than 90% of the people on here.

    On this website people talk about advanced concepts and other unimportant measures. Real estate is about supply/demand to a very large extent. Let me give you a hint… Inventory is low and demand is medium. Prices will go up next year because of scarcity. Really the only time things get weird is when we are in Hypersupply and the government is creating fake stimulus. Even then, you gotta figure stimulus is probably coming at some point before a crash.

  36. 1036
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 1019
    RE: don @ 1005

    Crickets only … or JustCrickets….?

    Notice that if you ask Justme if he has bought, wants to buy, is hoping to buy in the future,…nothing. The Justme chorus of crickets just goes on and on…and… on.

    He resolutely ignores those who ask if he is a player and if so, how. Instead, he hopes to divert attention by making up new measures to prove points that mean essentially, well, nothing.

    So suddenly selling within 2 weeks of listing is vital? Why? Who says so? Since when is that relevant? What are you trying to prove? That this is not 2017? What a blinding glimpse of the perfectly obvious!

    I don’t often quote Trump but I think Justme is that 400 lb. somebody sitting on a bed in the back bedroom of their mother’s house trying to find some path to relevance in this world.

  37. 1037
    Justme says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1018

    Good assist, why compare only with 1999? No need to let the bubble-monger define the comparison, even if said monger still can’t make a point.

  38. 1038
    kenmorem says:

    By Erik @ 1021:

    RE: kenmorem @ 1013
    Atleast SWE invests in real estate. Easy for you to cast stones chicken little.

    i own, outright, a queen anne condo rental.
    my primary residence is also paid off.
    i suspect my 401k, roth, and other investments dwarf your gains in RE.

    want to keep comparing?

    we’ll see who FIREs first.

  39. 1039
    OA says:

    By Erik @ 1023:

    RE: OA @ 1009
    I completely agree with your first statement. Do not bite off more than you can chew.

    I completely disagree with your second statement that you cannot predict the market. If you ignored everything and only looked at supply/demand, you would be much better at predicting than 90% of the people on here.

    On this website people talk about advanced concepts and other unimportant measures. Real estate is about supply/demand to a very large extent. Let me give you a hint… Inventory is low and demand is medium. Prices will go up next year because of scarcity. Really the only time things get weird is when we are in Hypersupply and the government is creating fake stimulus. Even then, you gotta figure stimulus is probably coming at some point before a crash.

    Long term it’s easier to predict, but I would not be at all comfortable telling someone right now to buy because price is only gonna increase in the next 18 months. My 2 cents.

  40. 1040
    OA says:

    RE: kenmorem @ 1026

    Good job, I love seeing/hearing when people have their real estate paid off. The financial freedom and wealth accumulation that this allows is incredible!

  41. 1041
    Erik says:

    RE: kenmorem @ 1026
    You have more money than me! I was barely scraping by for most my life. I’d watch my paycheck hit my account at 12:01am just so I could feel less financial stress. This went on for a longtime. I hope you feel better now, you got me.

    My statement was that you are not in the game. You have your house and a rental condo paid off. That’s not actively pursuing real estate investments, hence you are not actively investing in real estate. Therefore, you shouldn’t cast stones at those who are actively investing in real estate because you are not.

  42. 1042

    Ahhhhh….You Finally Bought That New or Used Seattle Home, Be Happy, It Was Your Dream Come True, Celebrate over a Cup of Yuban and Read:

    The Seattle Times
    TOP OF THE TIMES
    Saturday, November 16, 2019
    Highway 99 tunnel
    As tolls start in tunnel, here’s an eye-opening look at where your money is going
    Drivers began paying tolls this week in the Highway 99 tunnel through Seattle, and a sizable chunk of every dollar is being spent on just collecting those tolls. “It’s horrible,” one key lawmaker observes. And oops … WSDOT accidentally told drivers to halt and evacuate the tunnel during rush hour Thursday. Here’s the interesting part: They didn’t listen.
    Boeing abandons its failed fuselage robots on the 777X, handing the job back to machinists

    Boeing said Wednesday it is adopting a different approach that “has proven more reliable, requiring less work by hand and less rework, than what the robots were capable of.” Read more.

    Seattle area’s 10 best bites of 2019: Our restaurant critics share the dishes they loved the most

    From a pricey rib-eye to the $6.95 fried chicken sandwich that got crowned the best, Seattle Times restaurant critics Bethany Jean Clement and Tan Vinh share new things to eat in the Seattle area that they think will make you really happy. Read more.

    For Sounders fans, Sunday’s MLS Cup lived up to the hype and may never be topped

    Pregame jitters eventually made way for joy as the Sounders won their second MLS Cup title. For soccer fans in Seattle, Sunday was the stuff of dreams. Read more.

    Interesting intersections drive the design of a new home in Clyde Hill

    At the corner of public and private, a new home sinks down to limit its exposure. Read more.

    HEADLINES FROM THIS WEEK
    The fastest home-price growth in Western Washington isn’t in King or even Pierce County. King County’s spillover is heating up other midsize metropolitan centers in the region. One popular explanation has to do with gophers, oddly. Read more.

    When will your car-tab taxes plunge, now that voters have passed Initiative 976? They could start dipping soon. But when it comes to the taxes that draw the most ire, relief probably won’t come quickly (or, perhaps, at all). Read more.

    A teenager’s parents have sued Seattle Children’s hospital, alleging that its mold problem caused an infection that left their son disabled. The hospital’s operating rooms on its Seattle campus have been closed to tackle the recurring problem, which since last year has killed one patient and sickened at least six others. Read more.

    Millions of Americans watched the first two days of historic impeachment hearings, which opened with a revelation about President Donald Trump’s pressure on Ukraine and continued with testimony from the U.S. ambassador who was suddenly fired. Read the latest.
    Bringing you the news you care about. That’s our specialty. Supporting the local free press? Maybe that’s your specialty.

    SUBSCRIBE TODAY
    WHAT WE’RE TALKING ABOUT
    Will Jeff Bezos buy the Seahawks? Amazon’s founder and the NFL are reportedly keen on the idea. The Seahawks are owned by Paul Allen’s trust, headed by Allen’s sister, Jody. Read more.

    Even people who should know better are getting tricked by a Costco coupon scam. It’s been around for a while, but as it catches fire again on Facebook, identity-scam experts are busy explaining why you shouldn’t click on it. Oh, and that offer of free beer? Skip it, too. Read more.

    Megan Rapinoe, star of Reign FC, the U.S. women’s national soccer team and MVP of the 2019 Women’s World Cup, won a Woman of the Year award from Glamour magazine. She thanked Colin Kaepernick. Read more.

    Did you see Mercury skipping across the vast, glaring face of the sun in a rare celestial transit this week? Enjoy the images.
    LATEST LIFE STORIES

    9 movies open Nov. 15 in the Seattle area; our reviewers weigh in
    What’s there to do in Seattle this weekend? GeekGirlCon, movies galore and more
    How to get rid of stuff after 45 years in the same house? This couple threw a ‘downsizing party’

    Provided by Amazon
    Culinary students who have experienced homelessness need more than a job. Learning how to consistently show up to work on time, work as a team member and effectively communicate are just as important as learning knife skills. Read more.
    Produced by Advertising Publications
    Package theft increases during the holiday season, due to the increased number of home deliveries. Here’s what to do if your packages are stolen – and 11 useful tips to avoid it and ensure your purchases get to you safely. Read more.

    SWE’s Take:

    Impeachments Aren’t Ambiguous Inadmissible Evidence from Open Border Party Office Snoops in the State Department Illegally Doing Partisan Work on Official Duty Federal Government Time [Hatch Act Folks]..they’re required to only be based on high crimes and misdemeanors with real charges, none of which Trump can be charged, because none were committed. Its not like Trump was entertaining illegal girl friends [whores?] with cigars in the White House [and even those Bill Clinton crimes don’t support impeachment removal]. BTW….the impeachment hearings are currently drawing 100’s of millions into the Trump campaign war chest for re-election. Who would know. Trump’s got plenty of $CASH$ now for another huge stadium rally at the COMCAST sports arena at Everett in 2019 ….foreign policy political differences are never suppose to be a reason for impeachment.

    The property tax increases on the November ballot ALL PASSED before we voted on them….LOL, maybe we should just let Fascist politicians vote for us, we’re to stupid to defy them…LOL

  43. 1043

    RE: softwarengineer @ 1030
    I Just Paid My 1st Half of My Kansas Property Tax Bill on My Flipper

    It was $5 less than 2014…LOL…$575 every 6 months…how much was your’s in Washington State? 5-10 times that amount? LOL….taxation without representation in my book, where’s Robin Hood to save the day for the Wash St peasants?

  44. 1044
  45. 1045
    Erik says:

    RE: kenmorem @ 1026
    How did you payoff your Queen Anne condo and your house? I want mine paid off. What’s the secret?

  46. 1046
    Erik says:

    RE: OA @ 1027
    The hedge funds think it’s a good idea to buy in Seattle right now.

  47. 1047
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Erik @ 1033 – They are clearly late to the game. Not the smartest folks IMO. Or they may be playing both sides of the trade. You’d never know LOL.

  48. 1048
    Erik says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1034
    I’m not going to debate you because I don’t think you know what you are talking about. You may understand money in some other way I don’t know about, but you don’t understand real estate.

  49. 1049
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Erik @ 1035 – So you think the hedge fund guys understand real estate market? Hmm… interesting… lol…

  50. 1050
    OA says:

    By Erik @ 1033:

    RE: OA @ 1027
    The hedge funds think it’s a good idea to buy in Seattle right now.

    Hedge funds have deep pocket investors and take on more risk. I’m talking about a typical average homebuyer.

    Again – I’m not saying you’re wrong, I’m just that type of guy that first waits for the dust to settle before making a move.

  51. 1051
    Erik says:

    RE: OA @ 1037
    I’m more aggressive. If you only invest when the heard feels comfortable, you will lose more. When everyone zigs, I like to zag.

  52. 1052
    kenmorem says:

    RE: Erik @ 1032
    being frugal.

    and BTW: just being i am not holding a mortgage on a rental does not mean that i’m not actively invested. there is always a choice being made in all of life’s decisions, even if it doesn’t feel like it.

  53. 1053
    Erik says:

    RE: kenmorem @ 1039
    IYou are trying to complete with someone a lot younger than you. It’s like an adult fighting a child and bragging about winning. Grow up Peter Pan.

  54. 1054

    RE: Erik @ 1040
    Yes Erik, I found Going the Opposite Direction of the Mindless Mob Makes the Most Money

    Like stock investing after 911, when everyone lost their shirts and pulled out….same with RE, when landlords can’t afford a $5-10K Code Improvement bill to avoid foreclosure….they’re Baby Huey pretend investors….LOL….I fear there are more of them than us….that’s why they’re the mindless mob of lemmings jumping off the cliff…and no establishment financial advisers would say what I just said….LOL

  55. 1055
    kenmorem says:

    By Erik @ 1040:

    RE: kenmorem @ 1039
    IYou are trying to complete with someone a lot younger than you. It’s like an adult fighting a child and bragging about winning. Grow up Peter Pan.

    how old is mr. erik?

  56. 1056
    S-Crow says:

    Steve Eisman of “The Big Short” fame and managing director at Neuberger Berman:

    ” They mistook Leverage for Genius.”

    It should not surprise anyone that some flippers are losing everything right now. Some are desperately trying to refi out of their hard money loans. Some going as far as refinancing INTO ANOTHER hard money loan.

  57. 1057
    Erik says:

    RE: S-Crow @ 1043
    Why do you think they are not renting the remodels out until they can profit? If people are losing, I would say they need to revise their business plan.

  58. 1058
    Erik says:

    RE: kenmorem @ 1042
    Meet me for coffee at the Starbucks in Juanita at noon this Saturday(11-23) and I’ll tell you. Maybe Ardell can join too?

  59. 1059
    S-Crow says:

    RE: Erik @ 1044 – because they would be losing money month after month and they can’t service the debt load. Because the Note is due to the lender.

  60. 1060

    RE: Erik @ 1045

    Happy to see you if you are over this way. Leaving for Thanksgiving on the 24th.

  61. 1061
    Erik says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 1047
    Fair enough. It’s always a pleasure to meet with you Ardell.
    I’m trying to get some of these people out from behind the computer. If we all met up, we would all get along better. Easy to cast stones when you haven’t even met the person.

  62. 1062
    DavidE says:

    Redfin Report: National Bidding War Rate on Homes Hit a 10-Year Low in October

    SEATTLE, Nov. 13, 2019 /PRNewswire/ — (NASDAQ: RDFN) — Nationally, just 10 percent of offers written by Redfin agents on behalf of their homebuying customers faced a bidding war in October, down from 39 percent a year earlier and now at a 10-year-low, according to a new report from (www.redfin.com). However, low mortgage rates and a lack of homes for sale point to a likely return of bidding wars next year.

    Seattle had a bidding war rate of just 8.8 percent, below the national level and barely above the 10-year low set in July. This is despite the fact that a year ago it used to be among the most competitive markets, along with San Francisco and San Jose.

    https://www.khq.com/news/washington_news/redfin-report-national-bidding-war-rate-on-homes-hit-a/article_3bac84e3-ddc5-52f1-8b83-6715918a2e76.html

  63. 1063
    David says:

    By Erik @ 1020:

    RE: SeattleBubble @ 1016
    Hedge funds are back at the auction in king County. I heard blackstone was there last week and I talked to a gentleman from granite today. I asked him why the hedge fund is buying at the auction and he said because prices dipped. I just said “yeah, same here.” I suspect prices will go up a lot more before we have a real downturn fwiw.

    Hard to believe there is anything for Blackstone to bid upon in King County. They must see the current lull as the spring loading for the next bounce.

    I’m going to wait til the middle of Winter and head back to WA and get serious on a few properties. I think East of Seattle is the place to look long term.

    I’m still in Florida and my wife has started her memoir about surviving her first FL Winter. Each chapter covers two hours and lasts 6 chapters. Prices are still rising in Orlando here and the coastal area I am in has higher expected appreciation than Seattle.

    On a side note – I drove over to see the new Spacex Starship under construction yesterday. You can see it from the street easily. Obviously this is a test-bed because there is no way on this Earth I would climb into that oil canning thing.

    Basically, they are building it like they used to build boats outdoors in Taiwan.

  64. 1064
    uwp says:

    By DavidE @ 1049:

    Seattle had a bidding war rate of just 8.8 percent, below the national level and barely above the 10-year low set in July.

    Pretty hard to believe it’s the lowest in 10 years.
    Just to looking at October 2010 there was 9,700 listings and only 1,800 pendings.
    While this October there are 3,600 listings and 2,600 pendings.

    I’m supposed to believe there were more bidding wars then?

  65. 1065
    DavidE says:

    By uwp @ 1051:

    By DavidE @ 1049:

    Seattle had a bidding war rate of just 8.8 percent, below the national level and barely above the 10-year low set in July.

    Pretty hard to believe it’s the lowest in 10 years.
    Just to looking at October 2010 there was 9,700 listings and only 1,800 pendings.
    While this October there are 3,600 listings and 2,600 pendings.

    I’m supposed to believe there were more bidding wars then?

    I am not telling you what to believe, just read the data from Redfin and it actually is what it is.

    And Tim himself:
    https://www.redfin.com/blog/october-2019-real-estate-bidding-wars

  66. 1066
    noogakl says:

    Wait, did that just happen?

    – Eric calls kenmorem “Chicken Little”, presuming that he is afraid to invest in real estate
    – kenmorem tells Eric that he owns his primary residence, a condo and has substantial money in 401k / retirement accounts
    – Eric asks kenmorem how he paid off his real estate
    – kenmorem tells him
    – Eric says kenmorem is older than him and accuses him of bragging / trying to compete with him
    – kenmorem asks Eric his age
    – Eric invites kenmorem to meet him at the Juanita Starbucks at 11 AM on Saturday

    Eric, did he show up?

  67. 1067
    Justme says:

    RE: noogakl @ 1053

    Whatever happens, everyone make sure to bring chaperones if Ardell is coming (yeah, inside joke from earlier this thread).

  68. 1068

    Instead of Yuban, They’ll Slurp Down 800 Calorie Starbucks Sugary Drinks With Whipped Cream at the Erik/kenmore/Ardele Party Bash, while Reading:

    “…The Seattle Times
    MORNING BRIEF
    Monday, November 18, 2019
    Crane lifts a small housing unit into place
    More Seattleites are housing homeless people in their backyards
    A crane lifts a small housing unit into the Baedke family’s backyard on Beacon Hill. The family is among a handful of hosts in the nonprofit BLOCK Project, an effort to house homeless people in Seattleites’ yards. “It’s only nine now, but damn — those nine could start a religion,” says Rex Hohlbein, the project’s co-founder. “Because they are showing us what it actually means to lean forward on an issue that most people are turning their backs on and walking past.” Here’s how this works. (Photo: Andy Bao / The Seattle Times)
    NEED TO KNOW
    All lanes of northbound I-5 are closed at Joint Base Lewis-McChord after a nearly unbelievable series of events involving shrimp, cheesecake, a burning semitruck, and a fleeing SUV that crashed into multiple emergency-response vehicles. Backups are horrendous; check traffic before you go.

    This Thanksgiving travel season will be the second-heaviest on record, according to AAA, with 55.3 million Americans likely to hop in cars, planes and trains. Experts are warning about when we’ll see the worst traffic, with car trips expected to take as much as four times longer than normal in major metro areas.

    Boeing got a lift today at the Dubai Airshow, scoring an order for 737 MAX jets and also unveiling its fuel-efficient 787 “Greenliner.” Experts and even critics are saying Boeing’s 737 MAX fix tames the “tiger” in the flight controls. But one huge question remains as the jet nears a return to service: Will passengers return to it?

    Dozens of friends and family members were watching football at a Fresno home when attackers sneaked into the backyard and fired on the crowd last night. Four people were killed and six were wounded. Police are searching for the attackers.

    President Donald Trump may testify in the impeachment inquiry — in writing, not in person. This week will be packed with witness testimony. Here’s what to watch.
    Rise and shine! And subscribe. We depend on subscribers to fund our award-winning independent journalism. Subscriptions start at just $1 a week.

    SUBSCRIBE TODAY
    WINTER GUIDE 2019
    The holiday season has arrived with an abundance of festive events and activities. Whether you want to shop at a holiday market, take the kids to see Santa or hum along to cheery music, our interactive guide will help you find the perfect holiday magic. Bookmark it here. (Illustration: Gabriel Campanario / The Seattle Times)
    WHAT WE’RE TALKING ABOUT
    Your ballot wasn’t right about car-tab Initiative 976. Or at least it was extremely misleading, columnist Danny Westneat writes.

    T-Mobile CEO John Legere is leaving next spring, and he’ll be succeeded by President Mike Sievert, the Bellevue company announced today. Legere, a flamboyant leader who isn’t your typical corporate cat, topped the list of the Northwest’s best-paid CEOs last year. (Yes, he made more than Jeff Bezos.)

    The U District’s new high-rise is bringing change to a skyline that’s been frozen in time for decades. Seattle Sketcher takes a look at how the sleek M Seattle tower looks like nothing else around it. And this is just the start.

    For the Seahawks’ stars, what will life after football look like? See if you can guess who wants to be a fashion designer, who’s into breeding dogs and who has his sights set on owning an NFL team.

    Orphaned walruses Mitik and Pakak were rescued seven years ago and shipped to separate homes. Now they’ve been reunited at Tacoma’s Point Defiance Zoo & Aquarium — and they’re chatting and following each other around. Watch these playful, not-so-little buddies.
    LATEST LIFE STORIES

    2019 Seattle-area holiday events: Santa sightings, bountiful bazaars, lots of lights and more
    9 movies open Nov. 15 in the Seattle area; our reviewers weigh in
    What’s there to do in Seattle this weekend? GeekGirlCon, movies galore and more

    Provided by Shoreline Community College
    Study habits developed in high school may not be as effective in college. New strategies to get organized and stay on your game can help. Try these study tips successful college students live by.
    WORTH A READ
    A man who was struck in a Bellevue crosswalk suffered life-threatening injuries last night. The driver called 911 and stayed at the scene. The victim was taken to Harborview; emergency responders were unable to learn his identity last night.

    Not all do-gooders are humorless scolds. Columnist Naomi Ishisaka wants you to meet Seattle’s irreverent Vu Le, whose inside joke with colleagues morphed into required reading about unicorns, the “Nonprofit Hunger Games” and more.

    Have a backbone, and never say “That’s not my job.” Now that hundreds of thousands of Amazon workers have been steeped in Jeff Bezos’ principles, what happens when they leave the company? They spread the Bezos way, leading more than 40 startups in Washington alone. Here’s a peek at how this is changing the local business world.

    Let’s talk turkey, because it’s time to start thinking about that. Did you know you can use a sous vide machine for everything from the big bird to the sweet spuds? Here are the recipes. Or buck tradition like a Ballard chef who’s putting a spicy Puerto Rican spin on turkey. Find more ideas in our very forgiving Thanksgiving recipe collection, The Imperfect Holiday. Don’t want to cook? These local restaurants will be open.
    Produced by Advertising Publications
    Be like Jack Reacher when it comes to hard career questions. The fictional character from Lee Child’s book series seems an unusual job advice expert, but he solves problems with planning and preparation. Don’t just wing it, prepare.
    EDITORIAL/OPINION
    People who live or work in Seattle can help shape police response by sharing their perceptions of safety in their neighborhoods in an anonymous online survey. Broad participation is especially important this year, The Seattle Times editorial board writes.
    TODAY’S WEATHER
    Rain. High 52. Low 47. Sunrise 7:19. Sunset 4:29.
    TODAY IN HISTORY
    In 1985, the Northwest’s first heart transplant is performed at the University of Washington on Joe Gardiner, of Bothell, a Group Health Cooperative member. At the time a debate is under way by Group Health about paying for expensive new medical procedures. Gardiner receives his heart from a West Seattle man who died in an auto accident. Gardiner dies six years later of liver failure, probably due to hepatitis C, which in 1985 could not be detected in blood used in the operation. (Compiled from HistoryLink.org)

    SWE’s Take:

    Yeah, they order a dinky $1.2B order of Boeing Max 8’s and Airbus Gets Most of the Money at the same air show. “..The Dubai-based airline Emirates has announced a new order for 20 additional wide-body A350-900 planes in a deal worth $6.4 billion…”
    https://apnews.com/5f5f941e5498419a9bf4362755d18a4c

    Backyard Homeless Cages Sound Nice, But Where’s the Sewage Waste Going?

    I never drive Seattle’s Clogged Freeways on Thanksgiving….celebrate it next day…LOL

  69. 1069

    RE: Justme @ 1054

    You misconstrued “chaperone” to mean “bodyguard” and took offense. A chaperone is often required in real estate. As example, I cannot open the door for a home inspector and the potential buyers of the house and leave to have lunch and come back. I have to be there the entire time. This does not mean I think the home inspector or the buyers are “dangerous” people.

    I offered to show you how the internal data is categorized when collected to assist you in determining your parameter sets for data. As you have noted, every source of data groups these differently leading to confusion when long term tracking. I thought it would be helpful. The “chaperone” requirement was not about YOU and I explained that several times. The chaperone is required due to issues that are particular to the rules of access. As a witness for me, as example, that I did not share the access codes.

    You asked me to apologize for suggesting you were dangerous, but that was not the case. I am sorry that you misunderstood the meaning of and reason for a “chaperone”.

    It being Erik is of significance as he is my long term client the same way you have to sign in to the Redfin site as a potential client in order to read the agent insights section of that website.

    It wasn’t personal anymore than my needing to be in a house when my buyer clients are inside suggests there is something not to be trusted about them personally.

  70. 1070
    uwp says:

    By DavidE @ 1052:

    I am not telling you what to believe, just read the data from Redfin and it actually is what it is.

    And Tim himself:
    https://www.redfin.com/blog/october-2019-real-estate-bidding-wars

    Yeah, I read the article. I just find it hard to believe, and provided some data of my own to show why.

    It’s not like Redfin actually knows how many bids were on all properties over the last decade. I assume they only have that data on properties they were involved in, which is a small percentage of the market (and even smaller 10 years ago).

    Of course, maybe I am wrong and the MLS’ are keeping track of “total bidders” and sharing that info?

  71. 1071
    uwp says:

    Just to clarify, I don’t think Redfin is lying about their data. It’s just very strange that there would be fewer bidding wars now vs a time with over twice as much inventory and fewer sales.

    It’s just weird is all.

  72. 1072
    Eastsider says:

    By uwp @ 1051:

    Pretty hard to believe it’s the lowest in 10 years.
    Just to looking at October 2010 there was 9,700 listings and only 1,800 pendings.
    While this October there are 3,600 listings and 2,600 pendings.

    I’m supposed to believe there were more bidding wars then?

    In 2010, many buyers were bargain hunters/vultures. Properties generally received (and rejected) multiple lowball offers. Almost all pendings were below asking. The market was ‘competitive’ in a different way. It’s clear that you were not in the market then.

    Today, smart money has left the market…

  73. 1073
    kenmorem says:

    By noogakl @ 1053:

    Wait, did that just happen?

    – Eric calls kenmorem “Chicken Little”, presuming that he is afraid to invest in real estate
    – kenmorem tells Eric that he owns his primary residence, a condo and has substantial money in 401k / retirement accounts
    – Eric asks kenmorem how he paid off his real estate
    – kenmorem tells him
    – Eric says kenmorem is older than him and accuses him of bragging / trying to compete with him
    – kenmorem asks Eric his age
    – Eric invites kenmorem to meet him at the Juanita Starbucks at 11 AM on Saturday

    Eric, did he show up?

    i didn’t check the bubble on the weekend.
    i also don’t drink caffeine (see: frugal)
    and, i have better things to do than a pissing match.
    i’m 39 for the record. erik looks to be in his early 30s from his pic.

  74. 1074
    uwp says:

    By Eastsider @ 1059:

    In 2010, many buyers were bargain hunters/vultures. Properties generally received (and rejected) multiple lowball offers. Almost all pendings were below asking. The market was ‘competitive’ in a different way.

    That makes the stat relatively useless for comparison.

    Makes for a good headline I guess.

  75. 1075
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1059

    I was in the market in 2010. I bought seven properties and resold five of them. I also worked with other investors buying properties so I saw who was buying and what they were buying.

    In fact, during 2010 I never heard of even one multiple bidding situation. Hell, it was hard enough to get one serious bid on a property.

    So I agree. This is not data to take completely seriously. However, I might give it somewhat more credence if we are talking about more recent years, say 2016 – 2019.

  76. 1076
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 1062RE: uwp @ 1061
    Sure go ahead and exclude periods after 9/11 (2001-2002) and during GFC (2008-2012). The data still shows weakness in today’s market. To dismiss the data is pretty silly IMO.

  77. 1077
    Erik says:

    RE: kenmorem @ 1060
    You beat me(hat in hand). I’m sure you are way to busy to meet up Eastsider.

  78. 1078
    Ardell DellaLoggia says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1063

    It may just mean people winning in multiple offers are less likely to be doing that using Redfin if they only use their own offers for data

  79. 1079

    RE: whatsmyname @ 1007
    The Monthly Cost for “A Place for Mom” can exceed $8000/mo Too for a Decent Place

  80. 1080

    Time to Slip On Your Hooded Parka, Head Out for the Traffic Jammed Freeways and Get to Work to Fill Your Mug With Yuban and Read:

    “…The Seattle Times
    MORNING BRIEF
    Tuesday, November 19, 2019
    Seattle Children’s hospital
    ‘We failed’: Seattle Children’s admits more mold deaths and illnesses
    Seattle Children’s hospital disclosed yesterday that 14 patients have been sickened by mold since 2001, and six of them died. The CEO, Dr. Jeff Sperring, blamed his hospital for taking too long to realize the cases were linked to its air-handling system. But one family, whose daughter suffered a mold infection that left her permanently disabled, drew the connection when they sued 14 years ago. Read the Times Watchdog story. (Photo: Steve Ringman / The Seattle Times)
    NEED TO KNOW
    Today kicks off the biggest week of impeachment hearings. Two top national-security aides who heard President Donald Trump’s famous phone call are telling the world why it alarmed them. You can watch their testimony and find updates here. Tomorrow, Northwest hotelier Gordon Sondland takes the stand. Time and again, his tale has clashed with everyone else’s. Meanwhile, impeachment investigators are looking at whether Trump lied to special counsel Robert Mueller.

    A senior African-American supervisor at the ATF’s Seattle office will get $450,000 to settle her civil-rights lawsuit. Cheryl Bishop accused the federal agency of retaliating after she complained of racial harassment by a supervisor who has a Nazi tattoo.

    Fearing a mass shooting, Redmond police took a man’s guns last month under a fledgling state law meant to help prevent violence. Now a judge has given the guns back to the man, who has threatened to “kill all women.”

    Oh, this weather. Today is historically the likeliest day for rain in Seattle, and the scene out there is furthering our reputation as the nation’s gloomiest city. But take heart: Lovely weather will arrive soon, meteorologists say.
    Rise and shine! And subscribe. We depend on subscribers to fund our award-winning independent journalism. Subscriptions start at just $1 a week.

    SUBSCRIBE TODAY
    ‘DEATH-CARE REVOLUTION’
    Katrina Spade at Recompose
    Recompose, the human-composting alternative to burial and cremation, has found a home in Seattle’s Sodo area. Founder Katrina Spade walked into an architecture firm with “the craziest idea I’d ever heard,” says one of the firm’s owners, then he realized it’s “something I need to do — something the world needs to do.” Take a look at the revolutionary funeral home. (Photo: Ken Lambert / The Seattle Times)
    WHAT WE’RE TALKING ABOUT
    Yesterday’s cheesecake-and-shrimp traffic nightmare wasn’t the weirdest one we’ve seen around Seattle. That honor might belong to the one involving 14 million honeybees (ouch!), the frozen fish fiasco, or one of these others in our Bizarre Traffic Hall of Fame. The commute is messy again today, but not nearly as bad as the doozy that tied up the roads for nearly 13 hours yesterday. Check traffic before you go.

    Stop! Don’t charge your phone at an airport, hotel or other public place until you think carefully. Officials are warning travelers about a hacking scam called “juice jacking.” Here some tips for protecting yourself, plus other ways to keep scammers out of your cellphone.

    Most Americans detest one or more Thanksgiving classics but eat it anyway, according to a new survey. And nearly half of us think one ever-present staple is “disgusting.” Why do we eat this stuff, anyway? Maybe it has to do with all the wine. Speaking of which, here are Andy Perdue’s wine recommendations for holiday feasts.

    Do the Seahawks’ narrow escapes show grit — or just luck? Columnist Matt Calkins got some sunny answers from the experts. And here are five things you should know about the Philadelphia Eagles, Seattle’s opponent this Sunday. Coach Pete Carroll is sounding cautiously optimistic about Tyler Lockett’s return.
    LATEST LIFE STORIES

    Have a love-hate relationship with your family? How to stay sane when everyone comes together for the holidays.
    Recompose, the human-composting alternative to burial and cremation, finds a home in Seattle’s Sodo area
    Seattle Opera’s ‘The Falling and the Rising’ powerfully tells soldiers’ stories

    Provided by Northpoint Recovery
    Two paths of addiction treatment have dominated recovery dialogue: abstinence-based treatment and medication-assisted treatment. But for many, one size does not fit all, advocating this third option for long-term success.
    WORTH A READ
    The White House is denying speculation that Trump had a health emergency, after a secretive weekend trip to a medical center. In a memo late last night, Trump’s doctor cited an “interim checkup” that he called “routine.” The visit, though, was out of the ordinary, and late-night TV hosts had a field day with it. Watch a clip.

    Washington students no longer need to pass a federal test to get a high-school diploma. Now there are other possible pathways. Here are the new rules and the guidance that districts are “feverishly” scrambling to put together.

    How can you stay sane when the whole family comes together for the holidays? Here are a few fail-safe ideas for low-pressure family fun around the Seattle area.

    Some of the top U.S. tennis players are coming to the Northwest this winter. The U.S. women are hosting Latvia in the Fed Cup, and tickets go on sale this week.

    Wellness: You have the power to construct healthier days for yourself — and it’s not hard. Nutritionist Carrie Dennett shares simple, proven steps to minimize chaos and maximize physical and mental nourishment throughout the day.
    Produced by Advertising Publications
    Thanksgiving can feel more stressful than grateful, with so many dishes to keep track of and guests to welcome and keep entertained. Local experts offer advice on pre-work and prep tips that will save your sanity on the big day.
    EDITORIAL/OPINION
    The secret ICE detentions of juveniles in Cowlitz County are an appalling abuse of the federal government’s authority to conceal records, and they must end, The Seattle Times editorial board writes.
    TODAY’S WEATHER
    Showers. High 51. Low 40. Sunrise 7:20. Sunset 4:28.
    TODAY IN HISTORY
    Massive floods on the Cedar River in 1911 destroy the water pipelines that power Seattle’s hydroelectric plant at Cedar Falls and pipelines that carry water to city reservoirs, leaving Seattle without electricity and short of water. The old pumping station on Lake Washington is activated, and street-sprinkling wagons deliver water. The need to rely on unsanitary lake water prompts the first use of chlorination to purify Seattle’s water. It takes nearly a week before electricity and Cedar River water again reach Seattle. (Compiled from HistoryLink.org)..”

    SWE’s Take:

    We’re all Sick of the impeachment Hearings, They ask stupid questions like “when did you spy on Trump and what inadmissible court evidence are you 2nd/3rd hand allegating” as like an illegal State Department office snoop gossip with no legal credibility; because you’re a Democrat spy with no 2020 Dem candidate that doesn’t smell like cow manure compared to Trump….LOL….how about reporting the Trump 28,000 DOW record instead.

    Traffic is worse I imagine because drivers are worse too….cut way back on Holiday Driving, jut stay home and save your money instead…..if you shop, remember that new/expensive SUV or Cross Over has no locking trunk, they break your windows to steal all your “exposed” Christmas Presents…don’t drive home empty beer bottles trash either….you can get a DUI if you have no locking trunk.

  81. 1081
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1063

    I am not dismissing the data, but pointing out its limitations. It is a limited company data set that might be more valuable at some times than at others. Let’s also remember that Redfin is putting out these kind of releases as a brand building exercise. They are not opposed to overstating the reach of their stats — or letting credulous others do it for them.

    No question the market is not as strong as 2017. Of course there are signs of weakness. I think that is stating the obvious.

    The real question is why given impeachment hearings, a countdown to Brexit, a continuing trade war with China, the threat of deflation, volatility in equity and debt markets, etc etc. that the market is as strong as it is. That is the real question.

    Demand is not booming but it is stable. And supply, as this months-old thread has pointed out, is drying up.

    If the market is as weak as you say, why are people buying? And more to the point, if the market is as weak as you say, why are people not selling?

  82. 1082
    Eastsider says:

    By Deerhawke @ 1068:

    If the market is as weak as you say, why are people buying? And more to the point, if the market is as weak as you say, why are people not selling?

    Why are people buying? It’s pretty clear that people don’t buy homes nowadays. They buy a monthly payment plan that they qualify for. It’s like buying autos with loans as long as 7 years (10 years?) with negative equity! (If you don’t know what negative equity is, google it.) Same for student loans, home loans. Financialization is ruining our way of life.

    Why are people not selling? Okay, where they would go? I read that nowadays people stay in their homes for as long as 13 years compared to 8 years historically. They can’t afford to move!

  83. 1083
    northender says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1069
    If historically people sold after 8 years but now it’s more like 13 – why is it just nowadays that they buy a monthly payment plan? For the past 50+ years the vast majority of buyers have, to use your words, bought a monthly payment plan they qualify for. That’s how borrowing money works. Without long-term financing how many people would be able to buy a house?

    People are buying here because they want to stay, they want to control their living space, they believe prices will continue to increase long-term, and they are willing to risk a down payment. Same reasons as always.

    Anyone who has owned a Seattle house for 13 years and has not taken equity out of it can sell and move to any of a number of places (like Florida, or Detroit) and have a lower cost of living. Whether they can find work in their field elsewhere is another question, of course.

    Do you really believe what you write? Or is it your way of complaining about how expensive things have become here?

  84. 1084
    OA says:

    By Eastsider @ 1069:

    By Deerhawke @ 1068:

    If the market is as weak as you say, why are people buying? And more to the point, if the market is as weak as you say, why are people not selling?

    Why are people buying? It’s pretty clear that people don’t buy homes nowadays. They buy a monthly payment plan that they qualify for. It’s like buying autos with loans as long as 7 years (10 years?) with negative equity! (If you don’t know what negative equity is, google it.) Same for student loans, home loans. Financialization is ruining our way of life.

    Why are people not selling? Okay, where they would go? I read that nowadays people stay in their homes for as long as 13 years compared to 8 years historically. They can’t afford to move!

    Majority of people always had mortgages, how is that different now? I myself hate ALL debt, but most people can’t buy a house with all cash. If you’re specifically talking about the people that are completely reckless with how much they borrow, then I agree that there is high risk of financial ruin for these people.

    I’ve lived in Seattle since 1996, it’s a different place now. It’s a really expensive place to live now, that’s a fact. And long term I think it will only get more expensive (still assuming there will potentially be a bigger correction short term). Wages are higher here, but have definitely not caught up to the rising real estate prices. Affordability IS an issue here for many, and unfortunately these people will have to make decisions down the road whether to move to a different area. I’m already hearing more of these conversations amongst friends (more now than 3-4 years ago). I have some family members that are currently thinking of doing this, and it sucks b/c they do like living here.

    And honestly, I don’t see how some of you guys on here could be in such denial of all of this. I understand if you use this forum to vent your frustrations b/c the market is so expensive, but you’re literally disagreeing with everyone that has a different point of view than you do. And it’s so visible based on your comments. There is no propaganda that made the prices high, what’s real is the amount of high-paying jobs in this area, due to significant corporate presence here.

  85. 1085
    Eastsider says:

    RE: OA @ 1071RE: northender @ 1070
    The 13 year ownership is not a Seattle phenomenon, it is a national statistic. I am not here to argue where prices will be although I believe it is near bubble level. You are free to make up your own mind. I think we can generally agree that prices will not be at this level if rates are higher as witnessed in the past year. The lower rates are, the higher prices will be. (Not always true though.) When rates are near zero, ownership becomes ‘rentership’ because the only way you can afford it is through (subsidized) financing. I believe we are in this unfortunate situation today in many areas. Auto loan is one. Student debt is another. If you believe rates are going lower, yes prices will continue to climb. But you are making a major financial bet with a 20% down payment at risk. And a lousy bet IMHO.

    I can’t explain everything in a blog comment. In a nutshell, I would stay away from this market.

  86. 1086
    don says:

    @Eastsider 1072:

    ” When rates are near zero, ownership becomes ‘rentership’ because the only way you can afford it is through (subsidized) financing.”

    ? I’ve never considered that when borrowing is cheap [ eg zero], borrowers are at more risk than when, say, mortgages are 12%

    Rentership?

  87. 1087
    Beano says:

    I just got a 3.50% 5% down 30-year loan, no points. Rates are just fine.

  88. 1088
    Lulu says:

    By Eastsider @ 1069:

    By Deerhawke @ 1068:

    If the market is as weak as you say, why are people buying? And more to the point, if the market is as weak as you say, why are people not selling?

    Why are people buying? It’s pretty clear that people don’t buy homes nowadays. They buy a monthly payment plan that they qualify for. It’s like buying autos with loans as long as 7 years (10 years?) with negative equity! (If you don’t know what negative equity is, google it.) Same for student loans, home loans. Financialization is ruining our way of life.

    Why are people not selling? Okay, where they would go? I read that nowadays people stay in their homes for as long as 13 years compared to 8 years historically. They can’t afford to move!

    People are still buying and living in their home now. Seattle is expensive to live. Everything not just housing is expensive. Wage is also high (expensive to business too). Rent is no cheaper either. So people have to choose either buy or lease. There is no way around unless you choose to be homeless. With mortgage low and rent inflation, people choose to buy or rent and facing yearly rent increase. I have never see people loosing money buying since I move to Seattle two decades ago. Even through 2008-09 crisis. I see people complain expensive 20 years ago, now and I can assure you housing will still be expensive 10 years from now.

  89. 1089
    Eastsider says:

    By Lulu @ 1074:

    I have never see people loosing money buying since I move to Seattle two decades ago.

    Clearly false.

  90. 1090
    richard says:

    RE: OA @ 1071 – agree with you, this place will always be expensive. recession is only realistic chance to buy a house here. I am renting now and I will consider move back to where I am from once I earn enough money here. You have to be rich enough to own a house here.
    My opinion is that owning a house here is more of a living style than an investment. It’s like you travel to a city. if you are rich and like to enjoy, you can choose to live in a 5-star hotel. if you are on budget, you choose to live in motel.

  91. 1091
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1069

    Well, you didn’t answer the question. Or show you understood the larger topic that it was a part of. And in fact you took an oddball detour out into financial left field and then proceeded to go around in eccentric circles. But we will get you a small participation trophy nonetheless. Thanks for playing,

  92. 1092
    DavidE says:

    By Lulu @ 1074:
    Wage is also high (expensive to business too). Rent is no cheaper either. So people have to choose either buy or lease. There is no way around unless you choose to be homeless. With mortgage low and rent inflation, people choose to buy or rent and facing yearly rent increase.

    I have never see people loosing money buying since I move to Seattle two decades ago. Even through 2008-09 crisis. I see people complain expensive 20 years ago, now and I can assure you housing will still be expensive 10 years from now.

    Your statements are false I am afraid. Let me clarify.

    1. I was here during the 2008 collapse. People absolutely lost money. Many of those who had bought especially from 2005 onward lost money when they were forced to sell for various reasons. Looking at more recent trends, if you bought in the past 12-18 months and you have to sell now, you will most likely lose money after commissions and taxes due to price drops. This happened to my neighbor, who had to sell after living in their house since July 2018 but had to sell for unforeseen issues.
    2. Wages are high in Seattle in nominal terms, but in terms of purchasing power they are horrible. Boeing recently completed moving 3,000 SSG workers to Mesa, AZ precisely because of this issue and the fact that supporting workers in Seattle is becoming too expensive. We will all pay a heavy price as businesses relocate.
    3. People talk about low rates–that is what the government wants you to focus on. The real issue is that the principal, property taxes, and the maintenance costs have gotten much too high. Have you checked prices on simple items at Home Depot lately, like drywall , nails, water heaters, etc.? The smart people tend to look at those factors rather than just what the interest rates are, and home ownership is becoming just a financial trap in high cost areas.
    4. Do not be so sure that housing will be expensive 10 years from now. These low interests are about to end as the world abandons dollars. I would not dismiss it.
    Vladimir Putin: US Dollar Will Collapse Soon.
    http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/52560.htm

    P.S. Speaking of costs, I built a very nice waterfall pond in my previous house and have the list of all items that I purchased 6 years ago. Everything is now 75% more to build in the new house, including the pumps and the pond liner. Price inflation is absolutely real. Many of my other projects like bathroom and kitchen remodel will cost me now 35-75 percent more than they did just 6-7 years ago.

  93. 1093

    RE: Bumble @ 1012
    Do You Realize How Much You’ve Contributed?

    Nothing, just insults.

    Hey are you intelligent enough to use a scroll bar and skip folk’s posts, or you just wanted to jab me?

  94. 1094
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 1077 – No reason for such a snippy reply. It is totally uncalled for.

  95. 1095

    Slurp Your Yuban and Read:

    “…The Seattle Times
    MORNING BRIEF
    Wednesday, November 20, 2019
    Gordon Sondland and President Trump
    LIVE: Northwest hotelier-turned-ambassador Gordon Sondland points finger at Trump, Giuliani in impeachment probe
    Gordon Sondland, the Mercer Island native who landed in the center of the impeachment inquiry, is testifying in an explosive congressional hearing. Watch it and read Seattle Times politics reporter Jim Brunner’s live updates. Sondland began by directly pointing the finger at Trump and his personal attorney Rudy Giuliani, and new revelations suggest he may also implicate senior members of the Trump administration. The hearing is a minefield for Sondland, whose honesty has been called into question on several crucial points. (Photo: Pablo Martinez Monsivais / AP, 2018)
    NEED TO KNOW
    All e-cigarettes and vaping devices must be banned immediately, the American Medical Association said yesterday. The doctors’ group cited a surge in underage use. Washington state’s ban on vape products containing vitamin E acetate takes effect today. Parents need to know these key facts about vaping.

    Boeing should redesign and retrofit thousands of 737 jets’ engine casings after last year’s deadly blowout, the NTSB has recommended. Meanwhile, Emirates has opted for 80 Boeing 787 Dreamliners in a revised deal valued at nearly $9 billion.

    The entire state is mooching off King County, not the other way around. That’s the punch line of a new analysis of how government money flows among Washington’s counties, columnist Danny Westneat writes. It points to a coming showdown over Seattle’s money.

    Here’s a freebie for you: a piece of the Alaskan Way Viaduct! The state is giving away little chunks of the 66-year-old structure, starting today.

    Ten Democratic presidential candidates will face off tonight at 6 p.m. Pacific time, and you can expect one in particular to come under fierce attack: Pete Buttigieg. Here are seven key questions heading into a debate with no clear front-runner. See here tonight for updates.
    Rise and shine! And subscribe. We depend on subscribers to fund our award-winning independent journalism. Subscriptions start at just $1 a week.

    SUBSCRIBE TODAY
    FALL HIKES
    Man walks dog at O.O. Denny Park
    It’s hard to imagine a better hike close to Seattle than the one that starts at Kirkland’s O.O. Denny Park. The park looks small, but its beach is just the beginning: You can hike 2.5 miles of trails, visit old-growth trees and meet Sylvia, once the biggest tree in King County. (Photo: Mike Siegel / The Seattle Times)
    WHAT WE’RE TALKING ABOUT
    You’ll have a chance to see the Northern Lights tonight over Washington state. Here’s when to look, and how that rare treat happens. Sadly, we’ll have to settle for photos of tomorrow’s Unicorn Meteor Storm.

    New acts rule the Grammy nominations, announced this morning. Breakthrough singer-rapper Lizzo scored a whopping eight nominations. Here’s who else is rocking the list.

    Brandi Carlile and Sheryl Crow are coming to the Gorge next summer, Carlile has announced. Ticket sales start this week.

    America’s “bugging epidemic”: Forget, for a moment, about Big Brother and Big Tech. The biggest concern might be the neighbors, thanks to the growing array of products that let people spy on each other. It’s not paranoid to take a few precautions, security experts say. Here’s their guide.

    Thinking more optimistically about neighbors: Mr. Rogers was kindness personified, and so is Tom Hanks in the new movie “A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood.” Read Moira Macdonald’s review. And the gorgeous but musically oppressive “Frozen II” is another film that will deliver exactly what its most ardent fans want.
    LATEST LIFE STORIES

    Historic Seattle and Seattle Theatre Group make offer to buy 80-year-old Showbox
    New acts rule Grammys as Lizzo, Lil Nas, Eilish lead in noms
    ‘A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood’ review: Tom Hanks gently lights up Mr. Rogers tale

    Provided by New Seasons Market
    Sustainably raised turkey is good for consumers as well as the birds: Outdoor pasture living and zero transport time are the gold standard of environmental and humane standards that affect your holiday turkey’s taste and appearance.
    WORTH A READ
    The divide in Yakima is drawing national attention. At a time when the president is exacerbating racial tensions, it’s among many cities that are becoming less white, especially the under-45 age group. Fast-changing Yakima reflects a striking political moment in America.

    Seattle Theatre Group and Historic Seattle are trying to buy the Showbox together. The partners have made an offer on the 80-year-old music hall, which last year looked like it was going to face a wrecking ball. Take a walk through its storied history.

    Washington football fans should root for … Oregon and Utah?! Huskies coach Chris Petersen is talking about why — gulp — the uncomfortable proposition makes sense.

    It’s National Absurdity Day. Absurdly, we’re unable to identify the creator of this faux holiday. Let’s mark it anyway with this story about the deer that was “ping-ponging and doing loops” in Seattle’s very urban Belltown neighborhood this week. See it on video.
    Produced by Advertising Publications
    Pardon this turkey or eat it: You decide. A local family’s community food drive puts the fate of two turkeys in the public’s hands. Each food donation is a vote to decide whether the turkeys will be “pardoned” – or dinner.
    EDITORIAL/OPINION
    Understanding the drivers of health-care costs is a necessary first step in controlling them, The Seattle Times editorial board writes.
    TODAY’S WEATHER
    Here comes the sun! High 50. Low 34. Sunrise 7:21. Sunset 4:27.
    TODAY IN HISTORY
    Chief Joseph and his nephew Red Thunder in 1903 attend a University of Washington football game, played at old Denny Field near 45th Street. Chief Joseph is a leader of the Wallowa band of the Nez Perce Tribe, who are forced off their Oregon land in 1878 and later sent to the Colville Reservation in Central Washington. The UW wins the game 2-0 against the University of Nevada. Chief Joseph seems puzzled by football. As translated, he says, “I saw a lot of white men almost fight today. I do not think this good. … Those men I would think would break their legs and arms.” (Compiled from HistoryLink.org)…”

    SWE’s Take:

    This will get us interested in that meaningless impeachment fiasco, the State Department snoop came from the Seattle area….LOL….still hearsay with no legal admissible evidence IMO. Dems, stop wasting our time/money and get some real bi-partsan bills accomplished, like that Mexican Trade Agreement you won’t sign up for….why? We want a higher stock market with higher Seattle area RE prices forces…not a depressed RE crash from a do nothing Dem Congress wanting our economy and RE to fail.

    Seattle Area adding traffic fine light cameras all over Kent now to raise taxes….this defective robot system takes your picture if you make a legal right turn on a red light too…I wait until its a green light before I make a right turn at a photo red light now….I did this Saturday and a friendly Seattle area pedestrian screamed at me and pounded on my window and flipped me the bird with psycho eyes…makes you want to take the safety course and get a police officer “carry” permit….LOL…a Kent prostitute on drugs broke into my car when I was driving in Kent too. The area is definitely crime ridden.

  96. 1096

    RE: Deerhawke @ 1077

    I’m in the middle of a 6 offer bidding war right now. Just mentioning it as I haven’t seen one for awhile first hand. I think the last one I saw was in May or so. I’ve had 2 buyers and 1 buyer with 2 backup buyers, but not a substantial bid up, 6 offer bidding war.

    Multiple Offer Situation and Bidding War are not the same to me.

  97. 1097
    Lulu says:

    By Eastsider @ 1075:

    By Lulu @ 1074:

    I have never see people loosing money buying since I move to Seattle two decades ago.

    Clearly false.

    None will buy a house today and sell tomorrow. If you buy and hold for 5 years, I can’t see you will lose money even if you bought at 2007 peak. You might argue forced sale due to relocation. You could rent it out the hold it until it recover. A house is bought to live in, not for trade. Seattle is not an afford place to buy a house and will never mean be a place to be affordable.

  98. 1098
    N says:

    @ S-Crow – Seems you have been talking about this for a while now. Hard to fathom that over 80% of ALL refi’s are cash out. Add not only years to your mortgage but increase the balance while your at it.

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-home-mortgage-disaster-is-ready-to-punish-housing-markets-2019-11-19?mod=home-page

  99. 1099
    sfrz says:

    RE: Lulu @ 1083 – Not true. Bellevue neighbor working for large Tech purchased $1mil home last year with a shrug. “I’ll be leaving in 3 years.”
    Another story- Amazonian- purchased in West Seattle last year- after multi year employment. Told to find another job. SELL!

  100. 1100
    kenmorem says:

    i purchased in october 2006. didn’t get to above water until 2013 by my estimate. sold at the previous peak in may of 2018 for 2+x 2006 price.

    had 0% down.

    calculate that ROR.

  101. 1101
    Eastsider says:

    By Lulu @ 1083:

    If you buy and hold for 5 years, I can’t see you will lose money even if you bought at 2007 peak.

    I’m not sure why you keep repeating falsehoods. Below is the link to CS home price index for Seattle. If you bought at the peak in 2007, you would have been underwater after a decade (accounting for up to 10% transaction costs.) I doubt more than half of buyers from 2007 are still living in their homes. All who have sold likely incurred a (non-deductible) loss.

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SEXRNSA

  102. 1102

    RE: kenmorem @ 1086

    That’s something people don’t calculate about the “bad old days”. In the if you can breathe you can get a loan days a LOT of people bought a house who couldn’t really qualify for a house. If half of them still own their house…then a lot of people were helped by those crazy times. Glass half full.

  103. 1103
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 1082

    Can you explain your view of the difference between a multiple offer situation and a bidding war?

  104. 1104

    RE: Deerhawke @ 1089

    There are basically 3 types of “went over asking price”.

    The first is someone “jumped in front of the train”. Didn’t wait for review date. Made an offer the seller couldn’t refuse and shut it down. No other offers in yet.

    Second is “multiple offers”. Basically ends up with just a tie breaker. Most times you get a call “there is a tie” and you move just enough to break the tie. Usually 2-3 offers. Sometimes up to 5. But most offers are full price plus a modest tie breaker increase.

    Third is bidding war. Can be as few as 2 main buyers who are far and above everyone else just competing with each other like that $815ish that went for $1.6Mish in Montlake some time ago. This one was 8 offers (2 more came in). No contingencies of course. Not $100,000+ over asking like 2016 and 2017 norm. I think $50,000 will be the new $100,000. Too early to say. But 8 offers and $50,000 over asking on a house that wasn’t in a real prime location and wasn’t underpriced is rare for a week before Thanksgiving.

    A bidding war has at least two people (usually of many offers) who refuse to lose. Multiple offers the chips just fall where they may. Jump in front of the train just depends how much it will take for the seller not to wait for even a 2nd offer.

    It depends a bit on what the norm is. Back when everyone was prepared to go at least $100,000 over asking, $100,000 over wasn’t a “war”, just a tie breaker at how much over $100,000. People just looked at $600k if they wanted to spend $700k.

    No one wants to get into a bidding war right now…but they also want to buy it for less than asking during the first week on market. So you get 8 offers that are all over the place. Some less than asking, some a reasonable tie breaker bid and a couple influenced by the sheer number of offers to bid against each other.

    Usually there is a lot of talking in a bidding war. In multiple offers you just go through them and choose one or call two and tell them there is a tie. In a bidding war your phone doesn’t stop ringing and two are calling continuously and upping their game every time they don’t hear a clear yes that they are winning.

    My personal favorite is the one who does nothing when you tell two there is a tie and complains that you didn’t tell him what to do. :)

  105. 1105
    Beano says:

    RE: DavidE @ 1078 – RE: Putin and Dollar collapse.

    I insist and have always insisted that the true backing of the US Dollar is lead. As in bullets. Our war machine. You don’t need gold to back your currency you need weapons. USA still has the most, by far, more than the world combined.

    US Dollar isn’t going anywhere soon.

  106. 1106
    kenmorem says:

    By Ardell DellaLoggia @ 1090:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 1089
    My personal favorite is the one who does nothing when you tell two there is a tie and complains that you didn’t tell him what to do. :)

    didn’t know that justme was one of your clients…

  107. 1107
    Erik says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1080
    You’re a millennial from the west coast, huh?

  108. 1108
    Erik says:

    RE: Lulu @ 1083
    You sound like someone that actually invests in real estate. I agree and this makes sense to me. I’m gonna keep buying until the bank makes me stop. I’m not scared of foreclosing on one or two houses if I can keep the 20 remaining.

  109. 1109
    Lulu says:

    RE: Erik @ 1093RE: Erik @ 1093
    Yes. I bought one in 2009 and get $10000 credit from Obama. The property price is already doubled now.
    I bought another one and see healthy appreciation of 40% since 2014.
    Seattle is a desirable city to find a job, live and raise a family.
    I am transplanted from midwest rustbelt and was not very comfortable with the pricey housing at the beginning. I was a renter in the beginning. Once I realized pricey housing is just the norm on west coast. I made the right choice to purchase and never regret.
    I will definitely buy another one if I see opportunity come again. I don’t follow day to day, or month to month. Because I believe the land below is the real value. I don’t see Seattle an afford place to live now and in the future. Too many star tech companies here and wages are high.

  110. 1110
    Beano says:

    RE: Lulu @ 1094 – Agree, RE: Land.

    What areas are you buying or tracking to buy?

    I’m also from Rust Belt (But lived in NYC and New England) and I had similar difficulty accepting these coastal prices but purchased this month. Two factors that’s missing in Wash/Seattle real estate from my eye are retirees and second/weekend homes.

    One has to assume the entire state is attractive for retirees. I don’t sense this is a factor yet. Also, compared to the Northeast, I’m shocked how cheap land is in the outlying areas of Wash/Ore coast. That land remains an huge opportunity. Granted 60 million live within 3-5 hours of rural lands in the Northeast and the PNW is empty in comparison, but I think eventually this young tech money sets sights on 2nd homes in these cheaper, coastal areas.

    Right?

  111. 1111

    RE: kenmorem @ 1091

    I was actually referring to an agent there. I would tell my clients what to do. :)

    When I call two agents and tell them there is a tie and one changes their clients’ offer and the other doesn’t, the one who made a change gets the house. The other usually complains that I didn’t tell them exactly how to beat the other one, so they did nothing. Happens all too often.

  112. 1112
    richard says:

    RE: DavidE @ 1078 – well side! But the other side has deeply invested in the real estate and he will look the other way.

  113. 1113
    richard says:

    RE: Lulu @ 1083 – the point is that if house price does not go up people wont buy. You came here because you believe your house will go up in the future otherwise you wont come here to debate. you can simply enjoy your home.

  114. 1114
    Lulu says:

    RE: Beano @ 1095RE: Beano @ 1095
    I am tracking areas with good school, low crime, good community. easy to get onto I-5 and I-405. close to future light rail. I like east side cites: Bellevue, Kirkland, Sammamish, Issaquah, place within 20 miles to center of bellevue and seattle.

    You can rent 1st in these area in the beginning to see which area you would to live in the next 20 years.

    I didn’t buy right away when I 1st moved here. I rented for 2 years and witness the craziness of 2007 until 2008 when recession hits. Pay attention to rent/sale ratio . In Seattle, it is almost impossible to buy with 1:1 rent/sale ratio. If the ratio is not too crazy, be ready to submit offer. the best time to buy is during recession and in winter season. Hire a RE agent that offer buyer commission rebate. I hired one with 1.5% rebate. Good luck.

  115. 1115
    Lulu says:

    RE: richard @ 1098
    I bought my house because I a safe and enjoyable place for my family. I find one in my ideal commiunty. the rest is history. I don’t even follow month-to-month Shiller chart. of course , I believe real estate is an appreciate asset in the long run to beat inflation. I believe money in CD is an depreciate asset. So anytime is a good time to buy if your family need one. I should say everyone should revisit this forum five years from now. I can’t predict tomorrow or even next two years. But I can predict 5 to 10 years, buying into Seattle will be a wise choice.

  116. 1116
    richard says:

    RE: Beano @ 1095RE: Lulu @ 1099 – you probably didn’t buy the house at the right time according to LuLu. Lulu bought at recession time so he or she can be winner now. timing is important. But maybe I am wrong you maybe got an exceptional deal. But so far I haven’t seen blood in real estate yet.

  117. 1117
    Beano says:

    RE: Lulu @ 1099 – Good advice.

    I’m tracking the same areas. One area in particular seems undervalued despite location N Renton/May Creek. Get a discount because long time locals are scared of the Renton zip. Whereas I don’t care. And the future won’t care either.

    I do think by 2040 good roads will be more valuable than light rail. Automated vehicles will use roads.

  118. 1118
    Lulu says:

    RE: richard @ 1101
    Even if I bought at height of 2007, I will still be ahead today. I bought at 2009, a year earlier than 2010. Do I regret, absolute no. in 2009, I pick the ideal location I want. In 2010, there are investors compete with you. For real estate, 1 st is the location, 2 nd is the price.

  119. 1119
    Lulu says:

    RE: Beano @ 1102

    N Renton is also a good community to raise a family and not too pricey. I don’t believe autonomous vehicles ( I was an autonomous vehicles developer in rust belt before I come here, practically we should see autonomous airplane 1st before land vehicle). Now Seattle is into dark rainy season, best time for house bargain hunting.

  120. 1120
    Beano says:

    RE: Lulu @ 1104 – Re: Autonomous vehicles. Agree that the typical person won’t be in one for 20 years or more, at the soonest.

    First will probably be autonomous freight/18-wheel long haul trucks. We will still need human drivers for the last mile problem. Thus, outside major cities, you will have massive parking lots where humans take over.

    For airplanes, the military has designed the next generation of aircraft without pilots. Been in development for +20 years. Agree airplanes soon.

    City traffic is still a tough nut to crack – social behavior is hard to code for.

  121. 1121
    Lulu says:

    RE: Beano @ 1105
    Seattle Bellevue Renton are all connected by water. Can’t believe WSDOT never think use fast water vessel to move people to avoid I-405 and I-5 mess. renton landing->bellevue yellow pt->kirkland-> kenmore-> Seattle. when you look at map, Sammamish lake is also connect to lake Washington. Speed boat, WSDOT, are your listening?

  122. 1122
    Beano says:

    RE: Lulu @ 1106 – The plan is in place…or at least idea being sold. Agree -this needs to happen. Works in NYC/NJ.

    https://www.geekwire.com/2018/developer-plans-launch-water-taxis-connect-seattle-regions-tech-hubs-2020/

  123. 1123
    richard says:

    RE: Lulu @ 1103 – good timing. you wont buy now, right? in your previous post, what you wrote is you will buy another one when there is an opportunity such as recession. sounds like you are waiting for lower price entry.it is like trading stock,you bought at way down 2009 and 2010 , you.are fortunate because qe andchinese money successfully reinflate the house price till today. how much more room to inflate is a big question.

  124. 1124
    Erik says:

    RE: richard @ 1108
    We are at the bottom now. This is as good as it’s gonna get.

  125. 1125
    Beano says:

    RE: Erik @ 1109 – Agree.

    People need to realize 2008 is not happening again. It was truly a once in a lifetime deal.

  126. 1126
    Beano says:

    Think of 2008 like this – after 9/11, for years people were paranoid for the next major attack. Never happened. It was a black swan event. Same with 2008.

  127. 1127
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 1090

    ——-————
    ”This one was 8 offers (2 more came in). No contingencies of course. Not $100,000+ over asking like 2016 and 2017 norm. I think $50,000 will be the new $100,000. Too early to say. But 8 offers and $50,000 over asking on a house that wasn’t in a real prime location and wasn’t underpriced is rare for a week before Thanksgiving.”
    ——————-

    I have helped friends to buy this year and all 3 deals ended in a multiple offer situation $100k over asking. All of them were underpriced to some extent as a sales tactic— a tactic that worked I think.

    Given how you describe this as not a real prime location and not underpriced, how do you account for 8 offers this late in the season?

    General lack of inventory? Lack of a specific kind of inventory? A local employer is hiring like mad?Something else?

  128. 1128
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Erik @ 1109

    I think the real bottom in the current correction was last December.

    In addition to the normal end-of-year seller urge-to-be-done-by-January 1, there was a decent amount of inventory built up and prices had been soft since April. That is when I bought— and I already had enough inventory. The deal was just too good to pass up.

    But given the drop in inventory back toward 2016-2017 levels, I would be looking to buy now rather than wait until spring when there will be a general understanding that we are in a very different inventory environment.

  129. 1129

    Great Comments All: Time to Take Off Your Ice Parka’s and Ski Hats, Remove the Insulated Snow Boots and Enjoy a Mug of Yuban While Reading:

    “…The Seattle Times
    MORNING BRIEF
    Thursday, November 21, 2019
    Pedestrians cross in front of a bus
    Seattle sees nation’s biggest drop in solo car commuters
    Would you drive to work in Seattle traffic if you didn’t have to? The answer is “no” for more and more of us. The city has seen a huge drop in the percentage of residents who commute alone in vehicles. What are folks doing instead? FYI Guy looks at remarkable changes in the ways we’re getting around. (Photo: Mike Siegel / The Seattle Times)
    NEED TO KNOW
    Police are searching for a gunman who shot four people this morning in an Everett apartment. At least one person suffered life-threatening injuries.

    Two key witnesses today are capping an intense week of impeachment hearings. Fiona Hill gave GOP lawmakers a stern warning as she began testifying; you can see it live and read the updates. There are a few important moments to watch for in the testimony by Hill and the next witness, David Holmes . More:

    Fireworks abounded yesterday when U.S. envoy and Northwest hotelier Gordon Sondland explicitly linked President Donald Trump to a Ukraine “quid pro quo.” Read Seattle Times reporter Jim Brunner’s account of how that unfolded.
    For a completely different view of this political machine, sit at the impeachment “kids table” in Congress.

    Democratic presidential candidates went relatively easy on each other at last night’s debate amid the impeachment swirl. They directed most of their pointed jabs at President Trump, with just a handful of sharp exchanges on race and gender. Here’s a fact-check and a look at winners and losers. Catch up on which candidates are still standing, and where they stand on the issues.
    Rise and shine! And subscribe. We depend on subscribers to fund our award-winning independent journalism. Subscriptions start at just $1 a week.

    SUBSCRIBE TODAY
    THROWBACK THURSDAY
    DeCharlene Williams in her beauty shop
    DeCharlene Williams, right, was a single mom who worked multiple jobs when she finally got a loan to start her beauty shop, after 30 rejections. She became a Central District trailblazer and ran for mayor. Williams died last year, but her famed salon lives on, infused with her spirit. Can you guess what year this photo was taken? Check your answer, and see the life and laughter happening in this space now.
    WHAT WE’RE TALKING ABOUT
    You might notice a farm inside your grocery store. Local QFC stores are trying out vertical farms so shoppers can pick their up greens just inches from where they’re grown.

    Maggie Slighte cried the first time she was forced to go to the bathroom in public. A shortage of public bathrooms in Seattle, paired with a rising tide of people living outside, has created a wave of waste and an untold amount of humiliation. In its search for a solution, Seattle might borrow San Francisco’s approach.

    Don’t miss the spectacular, Blue Angels-style aerial shows happening at UW basketball games. Dunk artist Nahziah Carter is looking like one of the best athletes to set foot in Hec Ed, awed columnist Matt Calkins writes. Witness these aerobatics.

    For Black Friday shoppers, “all the rules have been thrown out the window.” The day is no longer simply about running after doorbusters; it increasingly involves social media and online flash sales. Here are five strategies for scoring the best deals, and a look at the season’s hottest, squishiest, slimiest toys.
    LATEST LIFE STORIES

    New releases of vintage jazz recordings show Seattle jazz haunt The Penthouse in its prime
    Jazz it up on Record Store Day Black Friday 2019 with these special albums
    ‘I get it this year’: Brandi Carlile receives more Grammy Award nods; several artists with Seattle-area ties are recognized, too

    Provided by Vivos IsoPet
    If you suspect your pet has cancer, see a veterinarian right away for a blood test or biopsy. Surgery, chemotherapy, radiation and other therapeutic treatments offer options and ways to ease your animal companion’s pain.
    WORTH A READ
    A Black Diamond man is accused of using chloroform and acetone to knock out his stepdaughter. The 13-year-old, who stopped breathing, was airlifted to a hospital. Police say the man claimed he gave her a “breathing treatment” to further her interest in singing.

    Could a Pinterest-like page help Washington voters make sense of who’s behind the dizzying flood of election ads? A proposal could put Washington at the forefront of campaign disclosure, in an era when the powers behind record spending are extremely difficult to track. Meanwhile, Google is limiting the ways candidates can target you with ads — but it’s not banning ads that lie.

    Rejoice, jazz fans and those who love them: More than 20 Seattle shops are participating in Record Store Black Friday with some special albums, including new releases of vintage recordings that show a local jazz haunt, The Penthouse, in its prime.

    Seattle’s hotly anticipated Carrello is dishing up Italian food with a seasonal Northwest bent. The highs are high (oh, that meatball!) … but then there are the lows. For your own foolproof pasta sauce, try this cacio e pepe recipe from Capitol Hill’s Dué Cucina Italiana, whose masterminds were born and raised in Tuscany.
    Produced by Advertising Publications
    Microsoft workers and middle-school students have a lot in common, says a local woman who has worked with both. Different ages, settings and jargon gave way to reveal common themes and approaches that bring out their best.
    EDITORIAL/OPINION
    China is bristling at two bills the Senate passed Tuesday, in support of Hong Kong protests. That could further complicate trade negotiations. But the U.S. must continue to confront China on unacceptable human-rights violations, including concentration camps, and the erosion of rights promised to Hong Kong when it was handed off by Britain in 1997, writes The Seattle Times editorial board.
    TODAY’S WEATHER
    Partly cloudy. High 50. Low 34. Sunrise 7:23. Sunset 4:26.
    TODAY IN HISTORY
    The Port of Tacoma dedicates its four-story Public Observation Tower in 1988, overlooking Sitcum Waterway. The tower is dedicated to Pierce County citizens to commemorate the 1918 vote that created the publicly owned and managed port district, which by 1988 is the sixth-largest container port in North America. The tower is free, open daylight hours, providing panoramic views of terminals and waterways where tugs guide cargo ships to dock and towering cranes stack containers high on ships’ decks. (Compiled from HistoryLink.org)…”

    SWE’s take:

    I’m not the only one calling today’s impeachment hearing a “joke phony kangaroo court”, so is the WSJ, this “establishment” MSM Opinion sides with Trump on this issue….especially with a 28000 DOW that supports our Seattle Housing market… LOL.
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-impeachment-kangaroo-11574294173

    I see more traffic during the weekdays since I went on retirement, full WINCO parking lots and horrifying I-5 snags at 1PM on I-5….I think folks are bartering for daycare, care giving and general labor, etc instead of working regular commute jobs for AMZ burger flipper wages…did you know daycare for an infant is like $400/week at Kindercare? They drive more at day hours now….

    Hey, instead of driving in this 7/24 mess, read Michael Crichton’s 2004 “State of Fear” [published right after Al Gore’s “Inconvenient Truth”]….its got great scientific data of temperature graphing of the Earth, sea level history and glacier data. A great Antarctica ice depth and temperature “historical” data source with valid scientific sources. Does it prove or disprove Climate Change folks? Let’s put it this way, the real Earth raw data is so vague, contradictory and convoluted, even a kangaroo jury wouldn’t give the guilty verdict….LOL…a great read, should be a required book in our public schools.

  130. 1130
    Eastsider says:

    FYI – Blackstone, one of wall street’s smartest investment companies, is bailing out of the RE market.

    Blackstone Moves Out of Rental-Home Wager With a Big Gain
    Firm sells the last of its stake in Invitation Homes, the company it created after the housing crisis to scoop up foreclosed properties and rent them out

    Blackstone Group Inc. has closed the door on its giant rental-home gambit.
    The investment firm late Wednesday sold the last of its stake in Invitation Homes Inc., the company it created after the housing crisis to scoop up tens of thousands of foreclosed single-family properties from the courthouse steps, spruce them up and rent them out.

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/blackstone-moves-out-of-rental-home-wager-with-a-big-gain-11574345608

  131. 1131

    RE: Eastsider @ 1115
    Yes Eastsider

    I think rental RE purchases are hampered by lack of qualified tenants to fill them too, especially Seattle area high priced home neighborhoods. I’ve noticed an uptick in folks wanting to buy my fixed up rental in Kansas, $CASH$ offers too…it may be the foreclosure SFHs’ supply is drying up too? Another weird phenomena too, I see more single young folks at grocery stores during week days in my wear, pajamas….LOL…IOWs, they’re helping like grand parents and disabled [relatives?] for room and board? Some may be driving grandpa’s Lincoln, but many can’t afford cars with high rent anymore.

    You can always tell if the young adults are living off relatives, crammed in the same SFH….lots of cars in the driveway.

  132. 1132
    Lulu says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 1116
    In Seattle, we see many house owner rent their half basement or single room to young folks. It is not uncommon to see several household live under the same roof. Use the same water meter, trash can and share internet. You can’t rent an 1 bed room apt for less than $2000 in Seattle now, plus you have to pay trash fee, parking fee. Renting a room allow you to save ($800-900 a room) with the benefit of shared utility and internet, free parking. For home owner, this will off load the high mortgage payment and allow them to save and buy another property. Win win for both renter and owner.

  133. 1133
    Lulu says:

    RE: richard @ 1108

    I will buy if there is a good deal come out.

  134. 1134
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1115

    Read the story and get it right.

    They are not bailing out but cashing out and booking their substantial gains. This is what hedge funds do.

    Why now? The stock is valuable to investors and is at a peak.

    From MarketWatch
    “The share offering is Blackstone’s second since March and comes as Invitation’s shares are trading at a record, reflecting rising rents and strong demand for the 80,000-odd homes it owns in 17 markets around the country. “

    You want to believe that the real estate world is going to hell in a hand basket, fine. Your prerogative. When you try to convince others of your point of view, don’t overstate the data or mis-state the point of the data— you will get called on it.

  135. 1135
    N says:

    Another words, the smart money is leaving Real Estate for the moment as Ardell has already pointed out, got it!

  136. 1136
    richard says:

    RE: Lulu @ 1117 – what a pathetic life people choose to live in the co-living environment? Maybe “win-win” from a value point of view. 2000 for 1 bed? that’s horrible. I rent a whole house in east side with ~$2400. who is the right mind will rent a 1 bed apt for $2000. No wonder these people will get fleeced over and over.

  137. 1137
    richard says:

    RE: Lulu @ 1118 – so you agree now is not the best time to buy because you haven’t found a good deal yet. Thanks for your confirmation.

  138. 1138
    richard says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1115 – thanks for the info. We should follow what the smart money does. Not the dumb money represented by Chinese money and Amazon rich dudes.

  139. 1139
    Lulu says:

    RE: richard @ 1122
    I don’t know if now is the best time to buy. Market definitely cool down from 2018 peak. Mortgage is lower than 2018. Chinese money stop flow in. If recession happens in 2020 or 2021. We could see another 10% drop from current level. Mortage could go lower than 3%. So you could just hold and wait to see. But as I said, for the long run, anytime is the best time to buy for you and your family. Next 2 -3 years would be interesting. As I said, Seattle is not affordable now and won’t be affordable in the future.

  140. 1140
    Justme says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1115
    RE: richard @ 1123

    Yup. Blackstone selling their INVH shares is a clear sign that the smart money wants to get out of owning rental single-family homes. I wonder why ;-).

    Can’t see how that such a reasonable interpretation can be wrong, no matter what some bubble-monger says. The mongers are getting pretty testy lately. I wonder why ;).

  141. 1141
    Justme says:

    RE: Lulu @ 1117

    >>You can’t rent an 1 bed room apt for less than $2000 in Seattle now,

    That statement is patently false. A quick look at craigslist right now shows that in Seattle proper there are now 1034 apartments with 1br/1ba with listed rent price of $1000-1500. For $1500-2000 the count is 1535.

  142. 1142
    David says:

    By Justme @ 1125:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1115
    RE: richard @ 1123

    Yup. Blackstone selling their INVH shares is a clear sign that the smart money wants to get out of owning rental single-family homes. I wonder why ;-).

    Can’t see how that such a reasonable interpretation can be wrong, no matter what some bubble-monger says. The mongers are getting pretty testy lately. I wonder why ;).

    WRONG! Blackstone went in hard during the heart of the Obama Depression. There is no way a firm like that can adequately manage that number of properties. They were in it for the big upswing.

    It means nothing to the overall real estate market.

  143. 1143
    Justme says:

    RE: David @ 1127

    >>There is no way a firm like that can adequately manage that number of properties. They were in it for the big upswing.

    Uh, Blackstone is not managing properties. Invitation Homes is. Blackstone was just an INVH shareholder since the IPO several years ago.

    INVH owns a lots of rental SFH in Florida, by the way.

  144. 1144
    Deerhawke says:

    Blackstone took the investment through the cycle. They bought low, they sold a lot higher, they left enough meat on the bone to interest follow-on investors who want a long-term low-risk return.

    Blackstone gets to book their profits, have their 20% payday (giving 80% return to investors), pay their very minimal LT cap gains taxes, and releverage the money.

    It doesn’t mean the smart money has left real estate. It is just that the smart money is moving on to the next thing.

  145. 1145
    richard says:

    RE: David @ 1127 – I always wonder if those big hedge fund guys(and banks holding forclosured properties) have some kind of deal on property tax with government. It seems those hedge fund guy has zero or very low holding cost. I support Elizabeth warren for forbidding big money to buy houses in the next downturn.

  146. 1146
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: richard @ 1130

    Absolutely. Hedge Funds and private equity produce no real good for the rest of us. Their whole deal is finding “extra value” and appropriating it for themselves and their investors. Everybody else loses.

    Some years ago, my family vacationed with some family friends on the East Coast who are also friends with a guy who has a small hedge fund. Small in this case is two partners (both ex-Goldman Sachs) running a $2.5 billion fund. They have 8 salaried employees, mostly young MBAs from second tier schools and 2 admins to pay bills.

    During the time we were with them , this guy was on the phone the whole time. I don’t think he was at the beach once. He closed a deal to sell a company they owned for a little over a billion dollars. They had bought it for $600 million four years before. His investors got 80% of the gains. He and his partner would split 20% of the $400 million profit. Nice week’s pay!

    I asked him what he had done to create that value. Four things. Bought well at the bottom of the recession. Brought in a new CEO, CFO, and COO. Gotten rid of redundant employees and outsourced much of the manufacturing overseas. Cleaned up the balance sheet.

    I asked him how he felt about the employees. He said he wasn’t expecting any Christmas cards from them. Then he quickly excused himself to finally go check out the beach.

  147. 1147
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 1119

    I think we can both agree that Blackstone is a smart investor. They got in at the bottom and are selling their holdings near the top. Their selling strongly suggests that easy gain is over now and RE is no longer a good investment compared to alternatives. I don’t think they are saying the market will crash.

    I am not sure why you get all excited because smart money is leaving the market. I know a lot of smart money has left the market too.

    P.s. I just checked Redfin data center. Seattle New Residential Construction is still plunging with no end in sight. YoY Median Sale Price Change: Apr -1.8%, May -6.0%, June -6.7%, July -7.1%, Aug -9.4%, Sept -12.1%. Looks like a bloodbath to me.

  148. 1148
    Blake says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 1131
    And another private equity group… “strip mining” what’s left of US newspapers.
    https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2019/11/destroyer-of-newspapers-vulture-fund-buys-majority-stake-at-tribune-publishing.html
    “Alden has become the face of bloodless strip-mining of American newspapers and their communities.”

  149. 1149
    Bumble says:

    By Eastsider @ 1132:

    P.s. I just checked Redfin data center. Seattle New Residential Construction is still plunging with no end in sight. YoY Median Sale Price Change: Apr -1.8%, May -6.0%, June -6.7%, July -7.1%, Aug -9.4%, Sept -12.1%. Looks like a bloodbath to me.

    Where do you access New Residential Construction data on Redfin Data? I don’t see that data as an option on their tableau interface. I see that YoY price changes for “All Residential” in Seattle is:

    Apr -4.8%, May – 4.8%, June -3.0%, July -5.1%, Aug -0.4%, Sept -3.6%, Oct +0.2%.

    SFH prices are up 4.0% YoY for Oct in Seattle (highest Oct prices ever).

  150. 1150
    Beano says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1132 – RE: New Residential Construction data…

    is this % decline INVENTORY or PRICE?

    That wasn’t made clear. Thanks

    EDIT* I see it’s price. Gotcha.

    I looked at a few new construction homes – hard to really make apples to apple comps YAG on that segment, BUT I found most new construction I saw had very undesirable land/locations. Often under huge power lines (no joke) or stacked on top of each other in the most uncomfortable manner.

    There is no doubt buyers are gotten more selective and properties with flaws are sitting. Properties that have solid land/locations and are not tear downs are going at or above, when priced appropriately.

  151. 1151
    Beano says:

    My biggest pet peeve with the Seattle SFH market is the deferred maintenance.

    In an environment where prices have grown rapidly for a decade, I understand how/why most people ignore maintenance. Also considering how many have to stretch to even make the payment – it makes sense.

    Where I really struggle is how this housing market seems to find this acceptable. Where I grew up, no chance a home changes hands unless repairs are made. Here the expectation is that the seller is going to hold the bag for a number of needed expenses/repairs.

    Now that the market is going sideways, I refuse to deal with a seller that is going to try and sneak major deferred maintenance issues by me.

  152. 1152
    Eastsider says:

    By Bumble @ 1134:

    Where do you access New Residential Construction data on Redfin Data?

    https://www.redfin.com/blog/data-center/
    Scroll to New Construction.

    Where I grew up, no chance a home changes hands unless repairs are made. Here the expectation is that the seller is going to hold the bag for a number of needed expenses/repairs.

    In a hot market, buyers tend to give up various contingencies. It will change as soon as the market turns soft. At this time, you can request flooring upgrade, closing cost credit etc on a new construction and the builder will be more than likely to meet your demand.

  153. 1153

    RE: Deerhawke @ 1112

    From those choices I’d say “lack of a specific kind of inventory”. Of the 4,068 one story (no basement) houses sold in the last 6 months in King County, only 366 of those were built since 1990 and only 84 of those were 2,000 sf or more.

    A one story house with no basement is appealing to some specific segments of local buyers…and they aren’t old people. Though maybe one or more of the 8 were old people, none of the many people I saw at the Open Houses were old. They were primarily of a certain culture that favors this style.

    When I say not primary, remember I have a very high standard as I break King County into 5 groups and mostly only work in the top 2 with a tiny bit of 3 and almost never 4 or 5. So 2 is still pretty good. The house was at a price you couldn’t generally find in the #1 areas, though possibly you can at the bid up price vs the asking price.

    It basically bid up to a location #1 price and it was at the top end of #2 vs the bottom end of #2. Kind of like B+ vs B-. Maybe I should move to a letter ranking system from a numeric one. :)

    It’s like the County Grade rank of 7,8,9,10 etc. Sometimes I run into an 8 that’s almost a 7 wheras at other times I run into an 8 that’s almost a 9. This was an 8 almost a 9 house in a B+ area. A lot of 1 story no basement homes are often barely 7’s as to build quality and much older.

    Required Disclosure: Stats in this comment were hand calculated in Real Time by ARDELL and not compiled, verified or published by The Northwest Multiple Listing Service.

  154. 1154
    Bumble says:

    By Eastsider @ 1137:
    https://www.redfin.com/blog/data-center/
    Scroll to New Construction.

    Thanks Eastsider, I see it now. I wonder why new construction prices are tanking while existing home prices are climbing? They are going in dramatically opposite directions on the graph.

  155. 1155

    RE: Bumble @ 1139

    Because a lot of new construction right now are townhomes vs single family homes. Townhomes with no condo fees. Townhomes that are classified as single family. Rowhomes.

    That drops the median price of new to the townhome price.

  156. 1156
    Bumble says:

    The data in recent months seems increasingly bullish/positive for Seattle RE. Inventory data in particular favors sellers.

    According to Redfin, October 2019 marked a new all-time high in price for the month of October. Higher than Oct 18′, 17′, 16′, etc. SFHs are the strongest category, condos and townhouses lag.

    I don’t think the data means we’re going back to the nuttiness of 16′ and 17′. But it might mean we are going to see prices resume an upward trend in 2020.

  157. 1157
    NWA says:

    Curious what the backstory for this one is:

    https://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/3811-E-Alder-St-98122/home/141242

    I have seen quite a few similar ones – higher priced, purchased last year, on the market again less than a year later for at least 100k less.

    Thoughts?

  158. 1158
    Diane says:

    RE: Justme @ 1126 – Regarding what you can rent for $2000 mo., we own a 1000sf rental house in the Northgate area and we get $1950 per month. We had to lower the rent 10% last year to find a new tenant and left it the same this year. Rents in that area are flat.

  159. 1159
    Eastsider says:

    By Bumble @ 1139:

    I wonder why new construction prices are tanking while existing home prices are climbing? They are going in dramatically opposite directions on the graph.

    Ardell has her theory. Here is mine.

    New constructions today carry a significant premium to existing homes. They are expensive due to stricter codes, higher labor and construction costs. A buyer can save maybe 30% buying an existing home with similar sq footage and location. So I consider new constructions high end of the market.

    We have 2 markets here. The low end is doing well due to low interest rates. The high end (including new constructions) is struggling in spite of low rates. Now that rates have started to move up, low end may start to cool going forward. I think we can agree that this year’s price movement was the result of FED policy. Prices are otherwise too high and not sustainable IMO.

  160. 1160
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 1140 – Sales mix may be a factor. But new constructions have not changed much within the last year.

  161. 1161
    Eastsider says:

    Here is the latest S&P/Case-Shiller Seattle Home Price Indices by Tiered Price:

    Month: Aug 2019 Jul 2019 Aug 2018
    High Tier: 248.32055 249.54652 252.15058
    Middle Tier: 251.83730 253.24136 249.22262
    Low Tier: 266.89244 266.53995 253.39717

    As I mentioned previously, the low end is doing well. High end is struggling. Be skeptical about this market. I would stay put until after the election. Reassess the market and economy then.

  162. 1162

    RE: Lulu @ 1117 – Have You Ever Seen That Old TV and Movie Sequel, the Odd Couple?

    Believe me, I love my daughter and son, but they’re 30 now and I’m glad they’re not living under my roof, there’s no parking in my driveway or carport without moving the chess pieces daily to move the blocked car….the adult kids living at home become depressed too, they want they’re own place. Who fills the refrigerator? The tooth fairy? Its called self esteem, we all require it.

    Blood relatives are usually safe to allow to rent rooms or share bedrooms in your house [usually not apartments?], but lease agreements and HOA contracts [like mine] prohibit it. Check the county codes for illegal rentals too:

    https://www.lawguru.com/articles/law/real-estate-property-landlord-tenants/how-to-legally-rent-out-a-room-in-your-house

    The last thing you need is a county code policeman knocking on your door…in Seattle there is no parking either, so if the cars don’t fit “jammed” in your driveway, then rental folks have to park on the packed street…no wonder they don’t like cars, I wouldn’t in Seattle either.

  163. 1163
    Lulu says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 1145
    Actually, two of my neighbors have rooms and basement rented out. Their are very friendly and my daughter always go there to play with their dogs. They park their car on their side of properties. Room share is very common in Seattle due to high house and rent.

  164. 1164

    RE: Lulu @ 1146
    Room Sharing is Something They Do In 3rd World Countries Too

    It doesn’t make it generally OK.

  165. 1165
    David says:

    By richard @ 1130:

    RE: David @ 1127 – I always wonder if those big hedge fund guys(and banks holding forclosured properties) have some kind of deal on property tax with government. It seems those hedge fund guy has zero or very low holding cost. I support Elizabeth warren for forbidding big money to buy houses in the next downturn.

    A willing buyer and a willing seller should not be prohibited. Elizabeth Warren is an imbecile on wheels.

  166. 1166
    David says:

    By richard @ 1130:

    RE: David @ 1127 – I always wonder if those big hedge fund guys(and banks holding forclosured properties) have some kind of deal on property tax with government. It seems those hedge fund guy has zero or very low holding cost. I support Elizabeth warren for forbidding big money to buy houses in the next downturn.

    If Blackstone had not bought those houses at that time what would have happened to those houses in such a terrible downturn? A net good was realized – though it does suck.

    BUT, anyone who voted for the Obama nomination deserves what they got.

    Also, no way Blackstone or their minions could properly manage that number of properties as far flung as they were. I’ll bet they got their a$$ handed to them on a lot of those properties with bad tenants.

  167. 1167
    Beano says:

    Flipping homes, essentially upgrades the housing stock of a city. Not everyone can afford maintenance and upgrades. If nobody could – you end up with swaths of abandoned neighborhoods like Detroit had decades prior. Sure enough Detroit is bouncing back in a big way now, partially assisted by flipping.

  168. 1168
    funkseoulbrotha says:

    Does Tim plan on updating any time soon? Or is RE that slow, there’s nothing really to report?

  169. 1169
    Eastsider says:

    By David @ 1149:

    If Blackstone had not bought those houses at that time what would have happened to those houses in such a terrible downturn? A net good was realized – though it does suck.

    It was a little more complicated. A lot of big players, Buffett included, got sweetheart deals. Blackstone probably had special deals (unavailable to others) when they purchased those homes from banks.

  170. 1170
    Erik says:

    RE: Beano @ 1110
    Deleveraging happens every 50 to 100 years and the last one hit about 75 years out. It would be unlikely for it to happen until 2058 or so. I’ll post that ray dalio explanation again for those that may not have was watched it. It made a lot of sense to me.

  171. 1171
    Deerhawke says:

    By Ardell DellaLoggia @ 1140:

    RE: Bumble @ 1139

    Because a lot of new construction right now are townhomes vs single family homes. Townhomes with no condo fees. Townhomes that are classified as single family. Rowhomes.

    That drops the median price of new to the townhome price.

    +1. Ardell is correct again. Lots more townhouses, rowhouses and urban singles. Far fewer true SF homes. The mix has changed really fast over the past 2 years. So unit prices are dropping somewhat but per square foot pricing is rising steadily.

    In 2013, I sold a 3100sf house on a 5000sf lot In Greenlake to a couple for $1.25M. The wife’s sister and husband moved out here recently and they bought a 2000 SF urban single (detached townhouse) on a 2000sf subdivided lot in Ballard for $1.1 million. The MLS shows them both as SFH and if you didn’t know better you might assume that this is an example that shows that prices are dropping. But they are really neighborhoods and different products.

  172. 1172
    Erik says:

    RE: Beano @ 1110

    https://youtu.be/PHe0bXAIuk0

    I got an “A” in pre calc 2 in high school and took it again at a university and got the highest grade in the class, so I think my brain got wired for these sine waves. I like them and they make a lot of sense to me. I think some people on here didn’t take pre calc 2 and that’s why they aren’t getting it.

  173. 1173
    Lulu says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 1147
    That’s what I seen in Seattle. I am from midwest rust belt while house are gernerally affordable. Not here. People are riding bus more here and car pooling more here in Seattle. House sharing and car pool is a very rare scene in rust belt.

  174. 1174

    RE: Deerhawke @ 1154

    Another consideration but not sure I can run the stats to match up with the linked graph, is a new house in Auburn recently and regularly sells at $560,000 while in the areas where I work you would be hard pressed to find a townhome at that price let alone a single family home.

    “New Construction” as a general all County category is all over the place.

    Ideally there would be 100 agents posting more real stats for smaller groups of geographic area. Trying to make sense of tri-County or all County stats with low volume is pretty ridiculous really. Who looks to buy or sell based on an entire County? An investor…maybe. Erik maybe. :)

    But a huge variance in New Construction Single Family homes can just be more houses down near Pierce County vs North of I-90. Where is the land to build new? Something to think about. A big complex these days that aren’t townhomes is hard to come by. That’s why I said townhomes, but single family in Auburn and other areas near there can drag the median price down real fast as well.

  175. 1175
    Erik says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 1113
    I bought my primary summer 2019 and an investment house September 2019. I’m looking to buy another investment before prices head back up. I’m hot in Rainier right now, so I’d like to get another one there for cheap.

    I’m remodeling my primary and my investment, so I hate to get too far ahead of myself. At the same time, I hate to miss this small window of opportunity though so I am a little hesitant to buy unless of course the right deal comes along.

  176. 1176
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 1157RE: Deerhawke @ 1154 – You need to provide data if you are disputing the fact that new constructions /high tier are struggling.

    I provided specific examples in comments #290 (Sept 21!), #294 (Sept 22!), and #366 (Sept 28!) that showed price drops of 20%-50% in the past year. I know these are extreme examples but I am unaware of any data that contradicts YOY price reductions in this segment of the market.

    You are in denial given your vested interests in RE.

  177. 1177
    Deerhawke says:

    I had two meetings with experienced agents and lunch with my title/escrow agent today. Theses are people who see a lot of transactions and keep their finger on the pulse of the market. Early in each conversation, I asked them what they were seeing in the Seattle real estate market. I did not expect them to agree or even overlap in what they said, but they did.

    1 ) It has been a very long and busy fall market. Normally the market would have died around Halloween but it is still going the week before Thanksgiving. They said they knew agents who brought on listings they would normally have held for spring— and it worked out. They we’re hopeful that we might keep things going through December.

    2) The townhouse glut is finally working its way through. Builders have been more realistic about pricing. Buyers realize that what is on the market is not ideal, but it is what is on offer. It is not very big and may not have parking, but it beats renting. With rents heading up again and interest rates down, the math on these little 10, 11 and 12 foot wide no-park units makes sense.

    3) Buyers looking for real SF homes are starting to realize that inventory is cranking tighter. Multiple offer situations are again more common, including several surprising bidding wars for nicely turned out houses that checked most of the boxes. One agent even had the temerity to post an offer review date on a listing.

    4) All three see a really competitive spring market unless the inventory situation changes somehow or the economy tanks.

  178. 1178
    whatsmyname says:

    ****Pre-weekend Report****
    Meanwhile, it’s Friday, and inventory is moving up.
    It could even hit 2800 today.

  179. 1179
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1159

    You need to document the fact that you actually have any direct knowledge of this market.

  180. 1180
    Erik says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 1160
    Thanks for sharing. The more information the better.

  181. 1181
    Erik says:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 1161
    Maybe Justme was right? If inventory skyrockets to 2800, what willl we ever do?!!

  182. 1182
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 1162 – You need to provide supporting data instead of hearsay and anecdotes. Cheers.

  183. 1183
    Ardell DellaLoggia says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 1162

    Did he just say I was in denial that prices dropped 50%!?!! I missed that breaking news story?!? What the heck is he/she talking about?

    People are losing their minds in this thread.

  184. 1184

    RE: Eastsider @ 1165

    Do you honestly think someone totally missing the mark on list price and later selling for significantly less is evidence of a market change? Talk about anecdotes.

  185. 1185
    Erik says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1159
    You know about as much as kenmoron, which isn’t much. It would be better for you to comment less and read more.

  186. 1186
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 1167 – I have Case-Shiller data. What do you all have? Vested interest in RE. LOL.

  187. 1187
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 1166 – Clearly not what I wrote. Triggered much? ROFL.

  188. 1188
    OA says:

    By Eastsider @ 1169:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 1167 – I have Case-Shiller data. What do you all have? Vested interest in RE. LOL.

    You seem to be pretty analytical, I’m the same way.

    Would you agree that you have a heavy bias leaning bearish? Nothing necessarily wrong with that, I personally have a vested interest in real estate here and I’m bearish short term. But I do think you have some similarities with Justme where you look at data from a certain viewpoint and not consider both sides of the story.

  189. 1189
    Eastsider says:

    RE: OA @ 1171 – I am not making any forecast on prices. I understand that prices can stay elevated for a prolonged period of time. Today’s risk reward is lousy. Prices can continue to shoot higher but not likely IMO (Blackstone et al) . Builders (Deerhawke), agents (Ardell), and speculators (Erik) continue to sing RE praises of all places in a bubble blog. ROFL.

  190. 1190

    RE: Eastsider @ 1172

    It’s an easy, cheap shot. I’ve been commenting here since 2006 and have never been accused of being a “cheerleader”. I have no bias toward the market being up vs down. It’s irrelevant to me over the last 30 years I’ve been doing this. An up market is not better than a down market to an agent. I’ve been bearish for a very long time, but that doesn’t make someone “off” on their asking price doing a price reduction mean what you want to think it means. I’ve also been clear that the high end is weaker, in fact you argued with me as to shy I thought it was weaker.

    Do you just have a short memory? I think it was last week that you disagreed with me that MID was one of the causes for it being weaker. But pointing out a change in asking price as a market change just makes no sense.

    It’s November. Builders are offering some great deals on their weakest products…same as most every November.

  191. 1191
    whatsmyname says:

    By Erik @ 1164:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 1161
    Maybe Justme was right? If inventory skyrockets to 2800, what willl we ever do?!!

    Well, Friday is usually the high day, and we didn’t make it. Maybe February ….. or March?

  192. 1192

    RE: Eastsider @ 1172
    Great Comments All, Bumble’s Inputs Were Great Too

    We need to emphasize economic growth in stocks, trade deals bring high paid industrial/manufacturing skills so that real jobs “eventually” [after 5-10 years of on-the job manufacturing engineering training after college] come back to Seattle again. Talk positive about “pocketbook” per capita economic growth IOWs, this negative “do nothing and never ending” pause in our lazy Congress is a good root cause to blame too. Where’s the Congress on the North American Trade Deal? They put off signing that until after 2020, Pelosi has a 17% approval rate and her impeachment delay excuse is moot too, its a 2020 campaign boost for Trump now? The polls show about a 10% shift now against impeachment and Trump’s approval numbers rose about 10% recently too.

    https://townhall.com/tipsheet/bronsonstocking/2019/11/21/impeachment-backfire-poll-shows-support-for-impeachment-down-approval-of-the-pr-n2556881/

    Many establishment independents [me?] want a great stock market and higher experienced/skilled pay/workers in Seattle. This is not partisan in my book if you own RE in high priced Seattle.

  193. 1193
    Deerhawke says:

    Ardell, no need to get irritated by ankle biters. This is a guy who doesn’t have any in-depth, first-hand knowledge of real estate. Or any skin in the game.

    I always find your comments interesting and on-point. Keep posting please.

  194. 1194
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 1174

    Inventory is definitely down from last year. But the question is how far down it is.

    A few months back Redfin suddenly changed its feed so it is different from the NWMLS figures that come out every month (and that are used in the graphs here—- when Tim can be bothered to update them).

    I figure the Redfin numbers are off from NWMLS figures by about -300 listings. Since Redfin is showing 2733, my best guess is that the NWMLS number is a little over 3000. Ardell, can you tell me if I am close?

  195. 1195
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 1177 – You are deeper in this than me, and I’m sure you are right enough that I’ll take your numbers at face value.

    Still, I think the loss of our hourly graph had more to do with the crossover to negative YOY; and, of course, I like to stir the pot a little now and then.

    After 80 days, I don’t think this is an issue of Tim not getting around to doing something. For whatever reason, this looks like a purposeful distancing. It would be nice to see him pass off posting the monthly graphs, (maybe case shiller graphs too), to a determined regular. Imagine how fun it would be to see those graphs posted monthly with a commentary from, say, Justme.

    I really enjoy reading your knowledge and perspective, not to mention that of Ardell. Also, hat’s off to the wit and wisdom of uwp.

  196. 1196
    Eastsider says:

    By Deerhawke @ 1176:

    Ardell, no need to get irritated by ankle biters. This is a guy who doesn’t have any in-depth, first-hand knowledge of real estate. Or any skin in the game.

    What a cheap shot. You have zero knowledge of who I am and are making baseless claims. Your rosy RE market commentary is also based on hearsay and anecdotes, not hard evidence. (Are you sure high end is holding up? Show me the money!) Many builders (and agents) got swept away in the last recession. Many more will be in the next recession. Yeah sure they all have “in-depth, first-hand knowledge of real estate.” No sure about skin in the game part because banks are the ones holding the bags.

  197. 1197
    Erik says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1179
    I can tell by reading your comments that you don’t understand the market or have skin in the game. I was surprised people that know real estate were even talking to you and then you got rude to them. You and Kenmoron can go rot it your own ignorance for all I care.

  198. 1198
    Eastsider says:

    By Deerhawke @ 1160:

    2) The townhouse glut is finally working its way through. Builders have been more realistic about pricing. Buyers realize that what is on the market is not ideal, but it is what is on offer. It is not very big and may not have parking, but it beats renting. With rents heading up again and interest rates down, the math on these little 10, 11 and 12 foot wide no-park units makes sense.

    In plain language –

    There is an oversupply of townhouses. Prices are down. Builders are hurting. The available inventory sucks. They are small and lack parking. No one in their right mind would consider these homes. But you should buy now because interest rates are down. Renting is still cheaper but this can change! I won’t live in these little 10, 11 and 12 foot wide no-park units but you should! You can own your unit instead of renting even if it costs more. You can afford it!

    Enjoy your weekend. LOL.

  199. 1199
    OA says:

    By Deerhawke @ 1176:

    Ardell, no need to get irritated by ankle biters. This is a guy who doesn’t have any in-depth, first-hand knowledge of real estate. Or any skin in the game.

    I always find your comments interesting and on-point. Keep posting please.

    100% agree regarding Ardell! I think you provide the best insight here, please keep posting.

  200. 1200

    Apologies for being a bit cranky yesterday. Had my final eye checkup after Detached Retina Surgery and while all is great with my eyes (YAY!) they dilated both of them, which made it harder to focus. :)

    I really shouldn’t get annoyed when people jab with the you are an agent so you are are biased crap because by and large they are correct as to agents with sparkly “talking points’. But I certainly have not demonstrated any of those shortcomings over the last 30 years I have been in real estate. I am a realist and always in search of true facts for forecasting. I actually have the most data to do that…but I have been reading nearly every comment on SB since January of 2006 to be sure I’m NOT biased because I’m an agent.

    I listen to everyone and only correct them when their facts are “off”. Not because it’s good news or bad news, but to make sure bad info isn’t spread about. Those screaming about trying to counteract propaganda are actually the biggest propagandists. They are calling others what they are. I find that particularly annoying. Besides getting into a childish “No YOU are…No no, YOU are” scrap, there’s nothing I can do about it. But it does get annoying when I’m on my last nerve for other reasons.

  201. 1201
    don says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1179

    You say that “Many builders …got swept away in the last recession” and then claim they have no skin in the game because the banks hold the bag?
    Ever see what happens when a bank just stops draw payments mid course? That’s more than skin, it’s head to foot road rash and broken bones. The bank’s first position lien, however, does not go away.

  202. 1202
    Eastsider says:

    By don @ 1184:

    You say that “Many builders …got swept away in the last recession” and then claim they have no skin in the game because the banks hold the bag?

    Did I trigger you too? I wrote “Not [sic] sure about skin in the game part because banks are the ones holding the bags.”

    What’s wrong with stop draws mid course to cut losses? Banks are accountable to their shareholders and depositors. This happens in business world all the time. WeWork?

  203. 1203
    don says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1185

    You did write that.
    Anyone who believes that builders take no risk is wrong.
    Simple as that. Were you around here in 2007 -2009 to see construction lenders simply withdraw financing with no breach by the owner and builder?
    Shareholders? Cry me a river.

  204. 1204

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 1183
    I’m so Happy Your Eye Prognosis Thing is Good

    Follow the doctors’ orders [I’m sure you do] and be thankful this Thanksgiving it apparently had a happy ending!

  205. 1205

    Game Changer News From WSJ and Fox Establishment News

    https://www.foxnews.com/lifestyle/baby-boomers-may-put-21m-homes-on-market-but-who-will-buy-them

    Let’s hope this doesn’t happen to Seattle RE too, Baby Boomers are getting too old/poor for Seattle area home ownership? Not to worry, the Milennials will bail the Baby Boomer flight out of RE with their high pay? LOL…..21 million Baby Boomer homes dumped on the market, Hades, that sounds like all the listings. Period.

  206. 1206

    Make Sure Your Thanksgiving Flight East Isn’t Cancelled

    Due to cold climate change and storms the next seven days:

    https://www.yahoo.com/gma/video/several-major-storms-threatening-disrupt-112236733.html

    Seattle expecting rain and cold then too, clogged freeways…

  207. 1207
    Ardell DellaLoggia says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 1187

    Thank you SWE! Yes. Just landed in L.A. Time to bake some pies! Happy Thanksgiving!

  208. 1208
    Eastsider says:

    By don @ 1186:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1185
    You did write that.
    Anyone who believes that builders take no risk is wrong.
    Simple as that. Were you around here in 2007 -2009 to see construction lenders simply withdraw financing with no breach by the owner and builder?
    Shareholders? Cry me a river.

    I did not claim that builders took no risk. During 2007-2009, most projects were stopped because it became clear that the finished products would not pencil. There were a glut of expensive homes at prices that nobody wanted. Banks did nothing illegal by pulling the plug. Imprudent banks that financed the glut eventually went bankrupt. I am not sure what you are upset about. Some shareholders (retirees?) and depositors (widowers?) did lose their savings when banks failed.

  209. 1209
    don says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1191

    “I did not claim that builders took no risk.”

    Your last sentence in post 1179 does just that.
    The phrase “skin in the game” = risk.

    Guess what, incomplete projects don’t pencil either. If that’s why legitimate draws weren’t paid bankers are dumber than posts.

  210. 1210
    Eastsider says:

    RE: don @ 1192 – If you can’t read, I can’t help. NOT SURE vs NO. I am NOT SURE if you understand the difference.

  211. 1211

    Ardelle’s Eye Must Likely Be a Lot Better If the Doctor OK’d Plane Flights Possibly Increasing Eye Pressure

    The interior of A/C might well be pressurized to prevent this? Have a great trip to LA, this is one vacation you really deserve.

    Now, I Got My Mug of Yuban Filled to the Brim, Fill Your’s Too and Read:

    “…The Seattle Times
    MORNING BRIEF
    Monday, November 25, 2019
    Gabbie Price and her son Z’aedyn
    ‘All I needed was somebody to believe in me’
    Gabbie Price, pregnant at age 16, found that somebody in a woman she calls Mom Michelle. Now 24, Price is a mother to son Z’aedyn, and she’s also an outspoken leader, community advocate and foster parent. Columnist Naomi Ishisaka writes about how Atlantic Street Center created a life-changing meeting between two mothers, a generation apart. It’s one of 12 organizations that help our community with a boost from The Seattle Times Fund For The Needy. Here’s how to help. (Photo: Steve Ringman / The Seattle Times)
    NEED TO KNOW
    It’s snowing in Washington’s mountain passes, and we’re looking at a chilly stretch ahead in the Puget Sound area. It’s a good time to brush up on winter driving tips and stock your car disaster kit, especially if you’re traveling for the holiday. Speaking of that, we’ve broken down what you can expect in cars, trains, planes and ferries, plus how to avoid the worst of it. You can check real-time traffic here.

    The Navy’s top official has been forced out over the way he handled the case of a SEAL accused of war crimes in Iraq. Navy Secretary Richard Spencer’s ouster is a dramatic turn in the story of Chief Petty Officer Edward Gallagher. Catch up on his war-crimes case and the fight over his fate.

    Newly revealed emails show the White House launched extensive, after-the-fact efforts to justify President Donald Trump’s decision to place a hold on military aid to Ukraine. The emails also contain a debate over whether the delay was legal, according to people familiar with them. Here’s what’s next on impeachment, and a look at Trump’s mistaken reason for dissing the U.S. ambassador to Ukraine.

    The Seahawks “have taken a big jump forward.” Coach Pete Carroll is basking in the afterglow of yesterday’s fumble-feast of a win over the Eagles, 17-9. Seattle keeps proving it can win in any and all conditions — even without Jadeveon Clowney. The only thing better than Rashaad Penny’s sparkling day? Tyler Lockett shrugging off the injury that sent him to the hospital less than two weeks ago.
    Rise and shine! And subscribe. We depend on subscribers to fund our award-winning independent journalism. Subscriptions start at just $1 a week.

    SUBSCRIBE TODAY
    MACY’S STAR TO SHINE AGAIN
    Worker helps assemble the star
    Yes, Virginia, there will be a Macy’s star. Amazon and an East Coast real-estate firm have swooped in to save the beloved, 160-foot-tall holiday decoration as Macy’s prepares to close its landmark store in downtown Seattle. Here’s the story behind the star — and its rescue. (Photo: Alan Berner / The Seattle Times)
    WHAT WE’RE TALKING ABOUT
    Can the Cougars snap the Huskies’ six-year Apple Cup winning streak on Friday? It’s possible, because UW is looking shakier than it has in years. Here’s what the Cougars would have to do, and what the Huskies must accomplish. Frustrated with the Huskies? It might be time to point the finger at the coaching staff, columnist Matt Calkins writes.

    Yay! You’re hosting Thanksgiving! What could go wrong? Other than EVERYTHING. But never fear; columnist Ron Judd is here to rescue you and make you laugh. You can also find seriously delicious recipes in our Thanksgiving guide, The Imperfect Holiday. When it comes to turkey, there’s one thing your mother and grandmother may have always done that experts now say you should not.

    What if public transit was free in the Seattle area? Paris is thinking about it, and a Midwestern city is doing it. Kansas City’s mayor, who grew up experiencing homelessness, explains why he thinks free transit is worth a look.

    Soon, all you’ll need to board a Delta flight is your face. Unregulated and controversial facial-recognition technology is coming to Sea-Tac Airport, and Delta Air Lines will be the first to use it. Here’s how it will work.
    LATEST LIFE STORIES

    ‘Knives Out’ review: It’s a wonderfully silly, sharp whodunit with an all-star cast
    2 designers with Seattle ties will be competing on Bravo’s ‘Project Runway’
    Review: Sleater-Kinney end their American tour in Seattle, a place ‘we call home’

    Provided by Samis Foundation
    Travel to Israel can help Jewish teens connect with their roots and explore and define their Jewish identity. Experiencing a modern society deeply rooted in their heritage provides a global lens through which to see Israel and the world.
    WORTH A READ
    The nation is looking to Seattle’s successes in keeping people from cycling through jail. Now LEAD, a program that allows police officers to link people involved with certain low-level crimes to social services, may get twice as much city funding. A debate is happening over whether that’s necessary.

    The invisible player on the Seahawks’ field: Amazon. The Hawks are starting to use the company’s cloud computing technology to mine an intriguingly wide range of data, from a player’s acceleration speed to the probability of a catch happening.

    Keep an eye out for two “Project Runway” contestants with Seattle ties when the show returns next week. Jenn Charkow is a modern Goth designer with a parachute gown on her résumé; Melanie Trygg is a minimalist from Orcas Island who aims to take the fashion world by storm.

    Wellness: Charcoal and alkaline water are suddenly everywhere in health products. Are they helpful, harmful or simply a drain on the wallet? Nutritionist Carrie Dennett busts the myths.

    Most ap-peeling story of the day: A Michigan trooper pulled over a banana car, and gave its driver a surprise before they split.
    Produced by Advertising Publications
    Receiving feedback at work can be a challenge, which is why you need a good system to be ready for it. Always thank the person who is taking the time to offer feedback, and heed these three steps to handle good, bad and ugly.
    EDITORIAL/OPINION
    Initiative 976 passed with deep structural flaws, from its ballot title to the assortment of changes it would inflict on state infrastructure revenues. Courts must take action quickly to stop them from damaging the state’s infrastructure agenda, The Seattle Times editorial board writes.
    TODAY’S WEATHER
    Showers. High 47. Low 37. Sunrise 7:28. Sunset 4:23.
    TODAY IN HISTORY
    After a week of high winds and rain in 1990, the Lacey V. Murrow Bridge (Lake Washington Floating Bridge) breaks apart and sinks. It is later discovered that hatchways into the concrete pontoon air pockets were left open, allowing water to enter, as the 50-year-old bridge was being renovated. The sinking is captured on film and shown on live TV. The rebuilt bridge opens in 1993. (Compiled from HistoryLink.org)…”

    SWE’s take:

    Initiative 976 was not confusing at all brainless politician attorneys…$30 tabs are $30 tabs….stop confusing reality with “mealy mouthed kangaroo witch hunt legal skills”…take off your Fascist Hat and go with the Democratic election results. Its the law.

    Impeachment regrets? We’re watching the voter support for impeachment in the polls recently going down the proverbial toilet. Hades, Trump just mentions “impeachment” in his campaign emails now and simultaneously his campaign $CASH$ reserves and Trump’s approval ratings surge like 5-10%…LOL….he doesn’t need rallys anymore, Trump has the Schiff/Pelosi impeachment back-fire.

    The Seattle RE market of home prices is not about to collapse just because of the Trump economy imminent failure Seattle Times falsely reports, let’s highlight the Trump 28000 DOW in MSM journalism, not hide it in stealth. I don’t care who the President is, if it costs me $CASH$, I’m voting for the other party, ask the Bernie Supporters [that ended up voting for Trump] in 2016.

  212. 1212

    RE: Deerhawke @ 1176

    I just did some stats to answer the question “Where the heck are we right now?” :)

    I’m in L.A. baking pumpkin pies, so this is more for my benefit as to the parameters. But should offer some grounding info.

    King County North of I-90 (I’ll do North and South after the end of the 4th Quarter)
    3+ Bedrooms Residential…I didn’t alter anything for townhome or not townhome except not condo and at least 3 bedrooms. Though some of those condo-townhomes will be listed as residential, let’s assume for the moment the % of duplicates is the same for each group. SEE LOT SIZE

    Lot size 4,000 sf+. That should pretty much eliminate the Residential Townhomes. If they have a lot of 4,000 sf or more, might as well class them as houses.

    Median Price
    1Q 2017 = $805,000
    1Q 2018 = $925,000
    1Q 2019 = $900,000
    7/1/2019 To Date – $889,000

    That matches my perception so I’m done for now. If we are at a 2017 price it is very late 2017 or very early 2018. The increase 1Q 2017 to 1Q 2018 was so large YOY that a small slide back is like 10 steps forward, 1 step back at best.

    Median sf I determined to be inconsequential to the prices, but for those who like to do ppsf they are 2,520 – 2,565 – 2,510 – 2,520 in the same order as above with 2017 1st and recent 2019 last.

    Volume Sold is enough to not worry too much about the mix, especially given my parameters to keep things on an even keel. The last category is almost two quarters, so that volume is much higher. This is what they are in the same order.

    1,594 – 1,512 – 1,498 – 3,975

    The numbers look pretty good to me. The sky is not falling. I can now sleep at night through the rest of my Thanksgiving Vacation. :)

    Required Disclosure: Stats in the comment are hand calculated in Real Time by ARDELL and not compiled, verified or published by The Northwest Multiple Listing Service.

  213. 1213
    Lulu says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1172
    There is limited SFH housing supply in Seattle: land, new housing start. Condo and apt are over supplied by just looking around. Unless people prefer apt living. As long as city inflow population still net positive and new family forming (those young college graduates will eventually move out of apt to start a family), demand for SFH will continue positive. I don’t see a collapse of housing price in Seattle. A 5-10% correction is very normal. Moving forward, the certain thing is Seattle housing appreciation or depreciation will be better than national average.

  214. 1214
    Justme says:

    RE: Lulu @ 1196

    Lulu is dreaming of population increases. In 2017, the net domestic migration to King County (Seattle+burbs) was **458** persons. Yes, less than 500 people. Look it up at FRED, symbol NETMIGNACS053033, or just refer to this tweet:

    https://twitter.com/coqumragep279/status/1184889559357607937

    The problem is that people believe the relentless RE sell-side propaganda that claims big population increases, but the actual population increases are very small the moment. Nevertheless, enough people believe the lies, and enough dummies bought into the hype so that a new housing bubble has formed. And we will all get to suffer from it, one way or the other.

    Also, Lulu, are you not ashamed of the big lie you told earlier about lack of available apartments in Seattle (proper) with rent below $2000/month? My post number 1126 killed off that lie and good.

    Another day, another batch of propaganda from the bubble mongers.

  215. 1215
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 1195 – Since you have some free time, maybe you can run the same numbers on New Constructions? I’m pretty sure they are giving builders nightmares at night.

  216. 1216
    Lulu says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1198RE: Eastsider @ 1198RE: Eastsider @ 1198RE: Eastsider @ 1198
    I see many new construction unsold on the market. But most of them are > $1.0 -1.5 mil SFH. same side old SFH are selling at $800k range. I think those 1.5mil mage houses are giving bulider headache. If they could build two 800-900k SFHs on the same lot (actually a townhouse fit this bill). It would be much easier to sell. But who would like to share driveway and a wall?

  217. 1217
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 1195

    Thanks for that info Ardell. Not particularly good news for the chicken littles among us. But then I didnt think it would be.

    Enjoy your Thanksgiving in LA!

  218. 1218
    Ardell DellaLoggia says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1198

    Why should I do anything for you? Didn’t you just say I wasn’t trustworthy because I’m a Real Estate Agent?

  219. 1219
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 1200

    Oh snap! Well said Ardell!

    This is a guy with a pre-determined narrative. Tell him something he doesn’t want to believe from a position of superior experience and information and he will just dismiss it.

  220. 1220
    Bumble says:

    By Justme @ 1126:

    RE: Lulu @ 1117

    >>You can’t rent an 1 bed room apt for less than $2000 in Seattle now,

    That statement is patently false. A quick look at craigslist right now shows that in Seattle proper there are now 1034 apartments with 1br/1ba with listed rent price of $1000-1500. For $1500-2000 the count is 1535.

    I think you are mostly right, but the Craigslist data is pretty bad. Dig into those numbers and you will find that many of the 1br/1ba are in fact studios. Some are not actually in Seattle. Many have been posted more than once, like this unit 319 which occupies 7 separate posts on craigslist:

    https://seattle.craigslist.org/see/apa/d/seattle-gorgeous-hardwood-parking/7026892542.html

    I saw another unit posted 17 times.

    A Zillow search seems to produce much more reliable results. According to Zillow, there are 309 1bd/1ba units available in Seattle for less than $1500, and 450 units available for $1500-$2000.

    So about 759 1bd/1ba units in Seattle for less than $2000.

    There are 324 1bd/1ba units available in Seattle for more than $2000, and 1208 units available for over $2000 with any # of bds.

    According to a Zillow search, most 1bd/1ba rentals across the city of Seattle are priced UNDER $2000 (759 vs 324).

  221. 1221
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 1200 – Are you still cranky? :)

    I asked because your numbers do not reflect the new construction and high end market conditions –

    The numbers look pretty good to me. The sky is not falling. I can now sleep at night through the rest of my Thanksgiving Vacation. :)

    Of course the builder guy had to chime in. Again, without any proof that his market segment, new constructions, is holding up.

  222. 1222
    Ardell DellaLoggia says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1203

    I did not exclude new construction. It’s in there. I had no limiting parameter for age of house or price of house.

  223. 1223
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 1204 – Thanks. Redfin has new construction data. CS has tier data (probably new construction too.)

  224. 1224
    Ardell DellaLoggia says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1205

    If you understood new construction even a little bit, you would know why that is useless data. What are you calling “high end”? I asked you that awhile back, but I dont think you answered.

  225. 1225
    David says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 1194 – Have you ever considered writing a 10-line (or fewer) synopsis of your posts? Put that on here and then provide a link to a blog where you post the more elaborate version of your POVs?

    At one time I thought judges would appreciate long and detailed memos because it would help them make decisions. Then I took a judge taught panel-style class where the judges made it crystal clear that they don’t read anything beyond 5 pages or even fewer (and usually not at all – egad).

    Anyway, just a thought because a very short analysis is not that easy to do. Also, if this site is shut down, you will have some backup of your extensive work.

    Punch them in the mouth with the harsh facts (what ‘pfft’ would call ‘fisting’) and make them click the link.

  226. 1226
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 1206 – CS has data for high/middle/low tier – see comment 1144. Most new construction SFHs on standard lot sizes (e.g. 7200sf+ in Kirkland) are targeting high end market. Land is simply too expensive to build anything else. Otherwise, $1.8m is a good starting point. I am pretty sure you can track new construction prices just like resale SFHs.

  227. 1227
    Eastsider says:

    Case-Shiller September numbers are out.

    Seattle NSA index
    Sept/Aug -0.3%
    Aug/Jul -0.3%
    Sept/Sept YOY +1.7%

    Note that 30yr fixed mortgage rates were about 1.15% higher a year ago.

  228. 1228
    Deerhawke says:

    Case-Shiller is always late, better for confirming where you have been than where you are going, but here is an overview.

    Home price gains accelerate in September, S&P Case-Shiller Index says
    Diana Olick
    CNBC

    After shrinking for much of this year, home price gains are now growing again.

    On a national level, prices rose 3.2% annually in September, up from a 3.1% gain in August, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index. The 10-City Composite annual increase was 1.5%, unchanged from the previous month. The 20-City Composite rose 2.1% annually, up from 2.0% in August.

    Of the 20 cities covered, Phoenix, Charlotte and Tampa saw the highest annual gains, with 6.0%, 4.6% and 4.5% annual gains respectively. Ten of the 20 cities saw larger price increases in the year ending September 2019 versus the year ending August 2019.

    Home prices are rising most in the Sun Belt, where housing is generally more affordable than in the east or west. San Francisco was the only city in the composites to show an annual decline in home prices (-0.7%).

    “After a long period of decelerating price increases, it’s notable that in September both the national and 20-city composite indices rose at a higher rate than in August, while the 10-city index’s September rise matched its August performance,” Craig J. Lazzara, managing director and global head of Index Investment Strategy at S&P Dow Jones Indices, wrote in a release. “It is, of course, too soon to say whether this month marks an end to the deceleration or is merely a pause in the longer-term trend.”

    Other measures of home prices have shown multiple months of re-acceleration in prices, and other factors in the housing market point to price strength going forward.

    Mortgage rates have been very low since the spring. The average rate on the 30-year fixed has hovered between 3.6% and 4% since June, giving buyers more purchasing power and helping to reignite the heat under home prices.

    The housing market is also currently plagued by a critically low supply of homes for sale. The shortage is worst at the lower end of the market, and that is where prices are rising fastest. Demand is strong, thanks to low rates and to the largest generation aging into its homebuying years. Low supply and high demand are the perfect storm for higher prices.

  229. 1229
    Justbought says:

    I just bought and am confused by the sudden drop (15 percent) in My Redfin estimate.
    Here’s what I bought:

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/3301-York-Rd-S-98144/unit-2/home/168928005/amp

    Problems:
    1) the estimate when I put in an offer and while it was pending was very close to list price.
    2) there are 2 other smaller units in the building for sale currently w a HIGHER estimate than my place.
    3) appraisal was 400k

    Questions
    1)This is a rehab/new construction. Does Redfin know that?
    2)this is a coop that includes taxes in hoa. Do they know that or are they double counting the taxes?

    This is a pretty unique property and I think they are very off on estimate and want to know why.

  230. 1230

    RE: Deerhawke @ 1177

    Sorry I didn’t answer this back when you posted it. I was finishing some last minute work before flying out for the Holiday.

    ” Since Redfin is showing 2733, my best guess is that the NWMLS number is a little over 3000. Ardell, can you tell me if I am close?”

    King County as of now as I’m typing:

    2,783 General, Active, King, Residential, no other parameters

    2,379 Houses
    368 Townhomes
    36 Manufactured and Floating Homes

    You’d have to check shortly after I’m posting this at 10:17 a.m. on Tuesday 11/26, but looks like no. The MLS is not 300 higher and since I didn’t sort for duplicates that are showing as both townhomes and residential, the number is more likely higher than actual vs lower. But I’m not sure if anyone accounts for the duplicates besides the released MLS stats each month, since that duplicate posting data point may only exist internally.

    Seattle Only

    950 General, Active, King, Residential, no other parameters

    646 Houses

    290 Townhomes (Note that NOT in Seattle has a smaller % of total due to their more often being condos vs classified as SFH Townhomes. So a huge bulk of ALL KC SFH Townhome Listings are IN Seattle.

    14 Manufactured and Floating Homes

    Just because I don’t hold a grudge :) Back to King County and New Construction Only for Eastsider.

    892 Total (107 over $1.8 Mil)

    429 Completed (64 are $1.8 Mil+)
    289 Under Construction (16 are $1.8 Mil+)
    174 Presale (27 are $1.8 Mil+)

    My guess as to Eastsider is he’s itching to get a deal on New Construction in North Rose Hill, because his suggestions as to price and standard lot size ONLY fit that neighborhood. So let’s see how many of that 64 “glut” of built and new houses are in North Rose Hill just in case…ONLY ONE and it hasn’t been on market for 2 weeks yet.

    Seriously the bias here is not “professionals” but rather those who want a specific scenario to happen for them, like a great deal on a brand new house or a decent deal on a starter home. I wish that for them too and builders generally do give some better deals this time of year. But often it’s that listing under the electric tower, or with the highest noise level in the development, or that backs up to the junkyard dog houses of an old neighborhood. Stats as to median price don’t work in new construction as even for one builder and one neighborhood the price variance is pretty great for best lot vs worst lot. So if you are trying to maneuver new construction, you have to do your due diligence. Stats won’t help you here. Also builders are very good and hiding the discounts in free upgrades, free appliance packages and as high as $35,000 for a rate buydown. So stats are not the way to evaluate New Construction. Never was…never will be. No shortcuts to doing your homework.

    I’ll be cooking and considerably more family oriented after 5 today when my children and grandchildren are more free of work and school obligations and I’ll be back Tuesday after Thanksgiving for a closing I have in Seattle. So if you have any data needs, hit me up today before 3 ish.

    Required Disclosure: Stats in this comment are Hand Calculated by ARDELL in Real Time and not compiled, verified or published by The Northwest Multiple Listing Service.

  231. 1231

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 1211

    Sorry…had a bit of trouble with the editor. This should say Lower not Higher, but maybe no difference at all because duplicate listings are usually duplicated on the Condo side, so shouldn’t impact the numbers much if at all. Given the way Townhomes as to Seattle broke out of the Total KC, the numbers look pretty accurate to me as the duplicate listings are usually the condo townhomes and not the SFH townhomes. Sometimes an Area # duplication, but I see less of those than in the old days when Listing Agents were more desperate to fudge about that.

  232. 1232
    Ardell DellaLoggia says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 1211

    Another notation since it came up somewhere in this thread, 165 of the 429 New Construction completed “homes” for sale are Townhomes. So more of them are lower priced townhomes than are “high end” by Eastsider’s definition of $1.8 Mil+. So no. I don’t see a lot of reason for crying your way through Thanksgiving.

    Have a great Holiday everyone!

  233. 1233

    XFinity Internet Anomalous

    Half the websites wouldn’t open, until I unplugged the xfinity server and rebooted it….you guys have xfinity internet too? It works now, but took 15 minutes to reboot…

  234. 1234

    I’m Online Seattle Bubble Now and already Finished My Yuban, I’m Glad I didn’t Have to Call Xfinity to fix My Internet [or Wait for their Service Truck…LOL]….their TV Service Requires Shut Off at the TV Cable Too Every so often, but I was so puzzled when the internet “half worked”, weird symptoms, because it half worked…just unplug the dam_ thing and at the WIFI server…who wold know…LOL

    It works much faster now too, it probably had too much corrupted source control commands and needed them replaced with fresh code? If you have XFINITY internet, do this maintenance periodically…news ya can use…

    “…The Seattle Times
    MORNING BRIEF
    Tuesday, November 26, 2019
    Paul Allen
    What’s happening to Paul Allen’s billions?
    Paul Allen intended to give away the majority of the $20 billion-plus fortune he accumulated as Microsoft co-founder, technology investor, real estate magnate and NFL and NBA team owner. More than a year after his death, the secretive course Allen charted is proving complicated: The expectations are big, and so are the questions. At the helm of it all is Jody Allen, his trustee and sister. (Photo: John Froschauer / AP)
    NEED TO KNOW
    Home prices in the Seattle area are up year-over-year for the second month in a row. But don’t call it a streak. We outpaced only a few major metro areas.

    Inside the stunning reversal at Seattle Children’s hospital: After mold infections spanning 18 years and allegations implicating its air-handling system, the pediatric hospital has made an abrupt reversal and is moving to “the highest level of filtration found in operating rooms today.” Why has Children’s only now reached this point? Read the Times Watchdog story.

    You’ll pay a new tax on Uber and Lyft rides in Seattle. City Council members approved the tax yesterday as they passed a record $6.5 billion budget. Here’s what else is in it.

    Winter storms are snarling holiday travel across a wide swath of the nation, from the Great Lakes to the Rocky Mountains. Flight cancellations are piling up as some regions hunker down for a foot of snow. The weather could also ground the giant balloons at the Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade in New York. Closer to home, it’s shaping up to be a chilly week in the Puget Sound lowlands, with snow in the passes. Plan your travel carefully.

    Top White House advisers can’t be allowed to zip their lips in the impeachment probe, a judge ruled yesterday as he ordered former counsel Don McGahn to testify. Expect things to move quickly after Thanksgiving. Could President Donald Trump challenge impeachment at the Supreme Court? Here’s what the Constitution and past decisions say about that.
    Rise and shine! And subscribe. We depend on subscribers to fund our award-winning independent journalism. Subscriptions start at just $1 a week.

    SUBSCRIBE TODAY
    WINTER FUN AHEAD
    Carousel preparations
    Workers unload horses for the holiday carousel at Westlake Park in downtown Seattle. Each horse weighs 90 pounds, and over the years the horses have held more than 30,000 riders. The carousel opens Friday morning. Find more holiday happenings in our Winter Guide. (Photo: Steve Ringman / The Seattle Times)
    WHAT WE’RE TALKING ABOUT
    Bring the stuffing, the pie — and the weed? Now that recreational marijuana is legal in 11 states, Thanksgiving has become a high holiday for pot smokers. As with any social ritual, it comes with a set of do’s and don’ts. And whether you’re smoking or not, you do eat more at the holidays: Evolution trained you to do it.

    Will the Cougars upset the Dawgs in the Apple Cup? Make your prediction, then compare it with what our experts and your fellow fans think.

    The wounded war hero was speechless as he was honored at the White House yesterday. Conan the Belgian Malinois, who tore after the Islamic State group’s leader in a darkened tunnel in Syria last month, joins a long, scruffy line of war dogs that have served alongside U.S. troops for more than a century. They are some of the nation’s most fearsome and effective weapons.

    “If it’s my time to go to hell, I’m taking him with me!” An intruder picked the worst possible target: an 82-year-old bodybuilder with nerves of steel. By the time police arrived at Willie Murphy’s New York home, she had clobbered the man with a table, poured shampoo in his face, and was beating him with a broom. Check out her triumphant grin.
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    ADVERTISEMENT
    Reinventing the classics, starting with jeans. Ex-Under Armour execs took everything they knew about athletic apparel and applied it to jeans. Revtown jeans are the triple threat: sustainable, comfortable and affordable.

    WORTH A READ
    Two King County sheriff’s detectives fatally shot a man who is suspected of stealing a truck from a Black Diamond gas station on Friday with a poodle named Monkey in the passenger seat. A police chase and gunfire yesterday ended in the driver’s death, then another chase ensued for Monkey, who had jumped from the truck’s window amid the mayhem.

    Weatherman Steve Pool will sign off tonight, after 40 years at KOMO-TV. In case you missed it, Nicole Brodeur wrote a lovely profile of Pool, who made history and then reflected on trying to “do the right thing and treat everyone the same.”

    Medina might not be home to the world’s richest man anymore, thanks to a blockbuster deal in the world of luxury brands. Meet Bernard Arnault. (Jeff Bezos and Bill Gates have been trading the title.)

    Even the most jaded Grinch will turn gooey inside the moment a reindeer’s velvety nose nuzzles your hand. That’s the experience to be had in Leavenworth, where it turns out reindeer really do fly (well, kind of). Here are some fun facts about these docile creatures, who could outswim Michael Phelps and outrun Olympic sprinters.
    Produced by Advertising Publications
    Thanksgiving will go wrong. Local culinary and event experts offer advice on how to keep things relaxed and on track on the big day, as well as ideas for how to avoid Thanksgiving disasters – and how to deal when they inevitably occur.
    EDITORIAL/OPINION
    Washington legislators have stepped up to fund bicycle infrastructure in recent years. Mandatory helmet laws should be next, as called for by the NTSB, writes The Seattle Times editorial board.
    TODAY’S WEATHER
    Cloudy. High 43. Low 37. Sunrise 7:30. Sunset 4:22.
    TODAY IN HISTORY
    In 1999, Gov. Gary Locke offers to send National Guard troops to Seattle to augment law enforcement during expected demonstrations protesting the World Trade Organization (WTO), to meet downtown Nov. 29-Dec. 3. U.S. Attorney General Janet Reno offers the help of federal officers. Mayor Paul Schell reportedly declines both proposals, but after the rioting he disputes those reports: “I doubt we would have turned down help from anybody.” (Compiled from HistoryLink.org)…”

    SWE’s take:

    Speaking of meteorologists degreed folks predicting our weather yesterday…. boy were they wrong, snow and 36 degrees in Kent at 1PM yesterday, about an inch in parking lots….LOL….river boat gamblers can predict the weather better? LOL, happy retirement Steve ;-)

    You wouldn’t want to meet SWE in the wrestler ring either, that was my Cascade high school sport…LOL….that lady senior mentioned above crushed the young guys too…LOL…we may be older but we’re tough as nails.

    Frozen 2 the new release movie this week is $9.99 at Safeway, buy the DVD instead…LOL

    Hey, read 3 Monkeys by Michael Crichton [2004]…great book on DNA changes and cloning….the book has non-fiction references too, like Psychology Today….in 2004 they recognized that young adult folks weren’t maturing and staying “kid-like” into their 30s. We really need our manufacturing back, testosterone and sperm counts [and IQs] are way down lately in males [females hormones too] today too…Manufacturing builds strong folks, the service economy turns us all into sissys? LOL….we need a new party, call ’em the “ems”, employ males back in tougher jobs…LOL…remember Rosey the riveter…

    The last thing we need is more dam_ mealy mouthed attorneys…

  235. 1235
    Erik says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 1210
    I hear yah, and that’s my thoughts as well. Low inventory and high demand results in price gains. I’m asking a contrary question because I respect your answers, not to argue.

    In 2017, inventory was very low and demand was pretty high. We got an early and aggressive spring bump. Then the bottom fell out and we ended up flat for the year.

    My question is this….

    Do you have an explanation for the 2018 aggressive bump and values going down shortly after? I just chalk it up to values rose too much too quickly and people were no longer able to afford it, but I’m curious what you have to say and why this time is different. Perhaps people just thought the inverted yield curve meant we were heading for housing price declines?

  236. 1236
    Ardell DellaLoggia says:

    RE: Erik @ 1216

    Interest rates quickly jumped and hit 5%. That was the cause for 2018. 2017 didn’t end flat. I can check but I things were gangbusters until May or so of 2018.

  237. 1237
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 1211 – Thanks for the data. No, I am not in the market to buy a home.

    New constructions appear to have 4 months inventory. Given the purported housing shortage, 4 months is simply too high. Carrying cost for a $1.8m unsold new home is about $10k per month. I don’t have historical inventory data but my guess is well under 2 months in 2012-2015. So I am on the side of half (quarter?) cup empty.

  238. 1238
    Beano says:

    A little bit of a random question – realizing that *it depends* what would people say are typical housing credits on a seattle home that’s your average 680k home? this is perhaps a realtor question. Thanks in advance.

    $10k?

    $15k?

    $5k?

    What about on the east side or south king co? Any different?

  239. 1239
    Ardell DellaLoggia says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1218

    It doesn’t quite work that way most of the time because builders often put something up as a presale or under construction or they put up the model. They might sell 40 of those but keep one up for 222 days while they sell off the development. You’ll notice it saying photos are not of the actual house being sold. Some say the photos are from a completely different development in a different City.

    On top of that, some don’t show the closed sales for all sold. So you can’t do absorption rate from stats unless you do more research. Often you can use the site map. I use a County Records search.

    I’m just saying that new construction stats don’t function the same way resale does. So you can’t draw conclusions the way you are doing it.

    Also 7,200 sf is not the standard lot size for Kirkland. It is the zoning for a few neighborhoods, but definitely not the City-wide norm.

    The closed sold prices this time of year both this year and last year included the rate buy down. In high season they didn’t have a buy down. So what you are seeing is less perks in the price. The drop in price with no buydown is actually a higher net for the builder.

    I just visited a few before I left town. The best lots that sold at the highest prices never were in the mls prior to being Pending sales under construction. Only the weak lots made it into the mls.

    The question is valid but using stats is not the way to get the answer.

    Watch to see if that same builder raises prices in the 1st Quarter of 2020…and if they sell. As to the spec houses you mentioned. When the smart money left the room the less smart ones went where Angel’s feared to tread. That’s not a market change. That’s a builder who overpaid for the lot or who jumped in while the smart money waited.

    Analysis of new construction takes a sharper eye.

  240. 1240
    Ardell DellaLoggia says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 1220

    Another I saw just before I left. The pricier builder finished selling his best lots and sold his substandard lots to a substandard builder who is finishing up the worst lots at a lower price. That’s not a market price drop. You have to look closer.

  241. 1241
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 1221 – Haha. That was clearly a smart money move. It indicates market top, at least according to the pricier builder.

  242. 1242
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 1220 – Most lot sizes are defined by property lines decades ago. But I doubt you can sell a $1.8m new construction on a 4,000sf lot on the Eastside.

    Yes, a builder may list just one home when he has many under development. When homes are completed, most builders list them. I agree new constructions have many variables and pricing is opaque to some extent. That said, 4 month supply is a good estimate. Better than no estimate. It shows you that the market is not as robust as 4 years ago.

  243. 1243

    RE: David @ 1207
    Yes David

    The problem is that I look at RE differently than most….its the most expensive decision you will make on planet earth…its prediction may seem clearly up, although buyers will allege the opposite. Why? Then it gets complicated and long winded. I see a foggy road ahead and no easy 10 liner….

    Mostly its cost and affordability, and the plethora of reasons for prediction analysis is not IMO. Its in all our opinions….if I get too complicated I leave the seller reader behind and if I simplify don’t do a good analysis for buyer prediction. Does the media muck it up and make everything simple and this overly complicates buyer opinions by using simple alleged excuses for sellers for a complex analysis? Perhaps? But we’re stuck with both sides and their opinions/habits, I wish it were simpler.

    I try and you do too Dave, thanks for the thoughts…one thing we don’t need is another worthless poll….LOL

    Deerhawke has to be long winded too, because his business has many details too. This comment section is not affecting RE in large affect anyway, its hardly read like other national websites which I comment on too….and probably that is where my time is best spent. My own website [OVERPOPULATION] has almost as much traffic as Seattle Bubble. Tim’s charts are good but like many have said, hardly matter in 6 months. I do get personal information from both sides here and I listen and read it all. Perhaps we need less charts and more useful raw data analysis?

  244. 1244

    RE: Eastsider @ 1222

    hmmm…we passed the top. Thought everyone knew that. You were talking about a 20% to 50% decline.

    Are you just being contrary? Did I get in the middle of a bunch of boys having a bitch-slap fight in the school yard? Sorry…I thought this was a serious conversation about real estate.

    Back to cooking…

  245. 1245

    RE: Eastsider @ 1223

    The view side and close to Downtown side of East of Market is SF5000. Not 7,200. Yes, they have been selling for over $1.8 M for years.

  246. 1246
    Ardell DellaLoggia says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 1224

    When the market has no clear direction, and it hasn’t for quite some time now, raw data is the best we have. That’s why I try to provide it, particularly when asked.

  247. 1247
    Eastsider says:

    By Ardell D Loggia @ 1225:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1222

    hmmm…we passed the top. Thought everyone knew that. You were talking about a 20% to 50% decline.

    Are you just being contrary? Did I get in the middle of a bunch of boys having a bitch-slap fight in the school yard? Sorry…I thought this was a serious conversation about real estate.

    Back to cooking…

    Revisit what I wrote in comment#1152 –

    I provided specific examples in comments #290 (Sept 21!), #294 (Sept 22!), and #366 (Sept 28!) that showed price drops of 20%-50% in the past year. I know these are extreme examples but I am unaware of any data that contradicts YOY price reductions in this segment of the market.

    The three houses dropped between 20%-50% (fact) and I emphasized that they were extreme examples. Otherwise, I wrote that Redfin data center showed a Sept YOY -12.1% decline (fact) in comment# 1132.

    No wonder you had a meltdown.

  248. 1248
    Eastsider says:

    By Ardell D Loggia @ 1226:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1223

    The view side and close to Downtown side of East of Market is SF5000. Not 7,200. Yes, they have been selling for over $1.8 M for years.

    I knew someone was going to nitpick. So I specifically chose 4,000sf instead of 5,000sf for this reason! (So stop thinking I have no clue about RE… haha)

  249. 1249
    Ardell DellaLoggia says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1229

    You said 4,000 after you said 7,200. You said 1/2 cup empty while I don’t count a presale or under construction as “inventory”. New construction has a lot of gray areas. If it’s not built yet, it’s not in inventory to me.

  250. 1250
    Erik says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 1217
    Thanks for the explanation! We need lower interest rates so we can continue fueling this bubble.

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