Equity Stompin' Comp Killers

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  • 3255 165th Ave Bellevue, WA 98008.......

    Based on a 1998 price of 300K and "normal" 4% appreciation per year to 2008 the house value is about 450K.

    Even assuming 5%/year which is pretty liberal, the house would still only top out at about 488K.

    No bubble here folks....move along :wink:
  • Not sure what happened here?

    http://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/6019-M ... ome/305804

    Current price $720,000 - below 2004 prices, on the better side of Greenlake.

    Dec 07, 1993 $124,950 --
    Oct 19, 1995 $290,000 57.1%/yr
    Dec 15, 1998 $275,000 -1.7%/yr
    Nov 17, 2004 $789,000 19.5%/yr
  • cheapseats wrote:
    Not sure what happened here?

    http://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/6019-M ... ome/305804

    Current price $720,000 - below 2004 prices, on the better side of Greenlake.

    It's ugly and dated on the inside; like a 90's suburban home. It's got very little charm for a 1904 house. Is a view of Green lake that desirable or is it a bubble created trend?
  • I've been watching that for a while.

    It's a short sale, due for auction in mid-July if I recall correctly.

    I haven't seen the inside, but if the square footage is right (I think it's a heavy amount of basement space), the location is pretty hard to beat for the size. Quiet street, walking distance to the lake and tangle-town. I don't really care about the interior decorating mistakes. That can be fixed.

    If we were in a different market, I'd be tempted to take a tour, at the least. Take a stab 100K below list to see if the bank would play ball.
  • biliruben wrote:
    I've been watching that for a while.

    It's a short sale, due for auction in mid-July if I recall correctly.

    I haven't seen the inside, but if the square footage is right (I think it's a heavy amount of basement space), the location is pretty hard to beat for the size.

    1750 sqft Above Grade Living Space
    1000 sqft Finished Basement

    Property Records
  • That half-story shouldn't really be counted at full $/sqft either. Still, it compares not too unfavorably to other properties a block from the lake. I think it's all due to come down, so I wouldn't bother unless the bank rolled it back considerably from 720K. Unfortunately I doubt they would.
  • unearthly wrote:
    cheapseats wrote:
    Not sure what happened here?

    http://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/6019-M ... ome/305804

    Current price $720,000 - below 2004 prices, on the better side of Greenlake.

    It's ugly and dated on the inside; like a 90's suburban home. It's got very little charm for a 1904 house. Is a view of Green lake that desirable or is it a bubble created trend?

    There's no view there. It's only "feature" is a two block walk from Green Lake.

    It's an alright house, but the buyer in 2004 got ripped off. That was maybe a $600k property in 2004. A ~6.5' basement, a low ceiling half floor MBR, etc...
  • Yeah, the first thing I thought of when I saw that 2004 price was "fraud?"
  • biliruben wrote:
    Yeah, the first thing I thought of when I saw that 2004 price was "fraud?"

    Fraud, or a buyer with more dollars than sense.
  • Is it made of straw?!?

    28118864_3.jpg

    524K for a new house with those dimensions, even in Kenmore, seems like it's well below market. What am I missing? Or are the builders finally getting it?
  • biliruben wrote:
    524K for a new house with those dimensions, even in Kenmore, seems like it's well below market. What am I missing? Or are the builders finally getting it?

    Scroll down and notice that comparable homes sold for $213 per sqft but sellers are asking for $232k per sqft. This house is still overpriced and will be sold closer to $475k. It's builders grade quality in Kenmore - why would I pay a premium for that?
  • Well, I wouldn't buy a new home either, but a lot of people do place a premium on it, and craftsman style, this relatively close in, seemed to be listing at 6-700K up until now.
  • biliruben wrote:
    Well, I wouldn't buy a new home either, but a lot of people do place a premium on it, and craftsman style, this relatively close in, seemed to be listing at 6-700K up until now.

    I wouldn't want a new home either, but it's just a matter of style and location (they tend not to be the nicest locations). Also, I don't like the overuse of cheaper materials in new houses. On the other side of the coin, you tend to get a very efficient furnace, excellent windows, and great insulation. For the first 10 years you can assume that your maintenance budget will be minimal, if anything at all. Everything in that house (paint, furnace, water heater, roof) is new.

    In my house, I have a cedar shake roof that will last another 5 years or so. The furnace is the original 1979 one so I'll replace that next year. The water heat is older too, so I'll need to replace that. It's a pain, but OK if you have the money. A lot of people would rather finance that cost over 30 years and defer the maintenance until later.
  • Wow.

    This house was just around the corner from my last house.

    It had been for sale for around 500K for much of 2007, then cut the price to 450K. Sold for 350K, below what they paid in 2004!

    Larger, level lot. Twice the sq ft of my house, for only 37K more. But my guess is it had that old-person smell.

    I don't think it was distressed, but maybe it was an estate sale and the family just wanted it done, after being on the market all that time. Dunno.
  • Weird my first two clicks on new redfin listings today:

    http://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/535-NE ... ome/108385
    Asking $350K -- Zillow avg -- $452K

    http://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/3027-4 ... ome/330882
    Asking $434K -- Eppraisal avg --$545K (no zillow data)

    I have been away for a couple weeks, just seemed odd.
  • cheapseats, that looks a lot like what I've been seeing.

    You can only assume that if any of those homes were actually selling, that the zestimates would start coming down. Which suggests to me just how slow the market really is.
  • That Greenlake house dropped to 695K, then went off the market; probably because it went to the courthouse steps.

    Not sure if there's a way to find out if it sold, or whether we will see at as REO in a month or 3.
  • Yea I am curious about that one as well.
  • The wave is movin' closer to town:

    http://www.redfin.com/WA/Shoreline/2134-N-185th-St-98133/home/79067

    425K last year. 399K list this year.
  • http://www.redfin.com/WA/Woodinville/17 ... ome/269810

    17705 NE 156th St
    Woodinville, WA 98072

    Sales History:
    Sep 28, 2001 $229,000
    Nov 28, 2006 $480,000
    Apr 23, 2008 $392,501

    20% drop from peak.

    Still a 70% increase from 2001 comes out to around 8.5% annual return.
  • Decent neighborhood with a peek-a-boo, but... ...900K last year?

    Now asking 650K as a short sale. When it went on last year I was puzzled at the high price. Smells like fraud.

    28043170_2.jpg
  • Look at that zillow curve, off near $200k since March? Any thoughts on this other than they way overpaid... smells fishy but the decline is remarkable

    http://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/710-30 ... ome/146974

    May 04, 1989 $88,054 --
    Oct 26, 1990 $131,000 30.8%/yr
    Jul 31, 1996 $169,950 4.6%/yr
    Jul 02, 2007 $950,000 17.1%/yr
    Now listed at $675,000
  • Another interesting one looks like going to auction today starting at $174k

    http://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/1515-2 ... e/12069864

    Date Price
    Jun 23, 2008 $365,000
    Jul 15, 2008 $319,950

    http://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/1515-2 ... r-21803354
  • About this one:
    http://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/710-30 ... ome/146974

    I did a little research using the MLS and county records. Bought July 2, 2007 at 950,000, then put on the market August 15, 2007 for 799,000 dollars, so this one doesn't make sense. I smell some kind of scam, where the buyer bought it for 950 but it wasn't really 950.
    Also, they're blabbing in the ad about the successful artists who live in Madrona, but this is at 30th and Cherry, only sort of kind of Madrona, with more of a Central district feel. I like the CD, but it's not supposed to have 700 thousand dollar homes.
  • That is a weird one Ira. The owner edited zestimate is awesome

    http://www.zillow.com/myestimator/Saved ... jbin_8fetj

    The $50,000 koi pond line item made me laugh out loud.

    The two prevalent types of fraud seem to be the straw buyer and the inflated apprasial with cash back, a lot of flippers used the inflated apprasial with cash back as a sort of rehab loan with no rules. The mortgage guy locally that got taken in by the FBI made 700 grand in cash back off of one doubled appraisal.
  • ira s wrote:
    About this one:
    http://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/710-30 ... ome/146974

    I did a little research using the MLS and county records. Bought July 2, 2007 at 950,000, then put on the market August 15, 2007 for 799,000 dollars, so this one doesn't make sense. I smell some kind of scam, where the buyer bought it for 950 but it wasn't really 950.
    Also, they're blabbing in the ad about the successful artists who live in Madrona, but this is at 30th and Cherry, only sort of kind of Madrona, with more of a Central district feel. I like the CD, but it's not supposed to have 700 thousand dollar homes.

    Last time I checked, most artists don't make that kind of cash...
  • IMO the new comp killer in North Capitol Hill is 723 16th Ave East. Located on one of the best blocks of 16th, between Roy & Aloha. I think the market is going into the crapper but if I wasn't moving to SF I would buy this house in a heartbeat; especially if I planned to live in it for 10 years.

    Of the 72 Cap Hill houses on redfin with listed square footage, 8 are cheaper; this house is going for $268/sqft.
  • unearthly wrote:
    IMO the new comp killer in North Capitol Hill is 723 16th Ave East. Located on one of the best blocks of 16th, between Roy & Aloha. I think the market is going into the crapper but if I wasn't moving to SF I would buy this house in a heartbeat; especially if I planned to live in it for 10 years.

    Of the 72 Cap Hill houses on redfin with listed square footage, 8 are cheaper; this house is going for $268/sqft.

    Interesting. that's 2 blocks from my rental T/H - and only about $200k more. South of Aloha is considerably cheaper than North - but it does look pretty good.
  • deejayoh wrote:
    South of Aloha is considerably cheaper than North - but it does look pretty good.

    Not really, many of the original mansions are south of Aloha on 14th, part of the original 'Millionaires Row' at the turn of the century. Anything between Roy and Highland from 13th to 22nd will be the best blocks, give or take a few blocks. 16th and 17th between Roy and Aloha have lots of enormous houses and are the best blocks for Halloween. The house across the street recently sold for $1.35M.

    720 14th Ave E is an example of a 'Millionaires Row' house south of Aloha.
  • unearthly wrote:
    deejayoh wrote:
    South of Aloha is considerably cheaper than North - but it does look pretty good.

    Not really, many of the original mansions are south of Aloha on 14th, part of the original 'Millionaires Row' at the turn of the century. Anything between Roy and Highland from 13th to 22nd will be the best blocks, give or take a few blocks. 16th and 17th between Roy and Aloha have lots of enormous houses and are the best blocks for Halloween. The house across the street recently sold for $1.35M.

    720 14th Ave E is an example of a 'Millionaires Row' house south of Aloha.

    Yes, one of my daughter's friends lives on 14th in one of those homes. And I have noticed, most of them below aloha are in pretty sad shape. But I think 14th and 16th are totally different things. I drove by that place on my way home. It looks pretty nice and likely will go for over asking - but N of Aloha it would be worth 200k more. I note that the massive place on the SW corner of 16th and aloha is a boarding house. There is no multi-family at all N of Aloha, E of 15th and everything I have seen on the market there seems to be north of $1mm.

    I probably walk by that house 10x a week, and all the other ones too. I don't need a wikipedia for my hood!
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