Yes, one of my daughter's friends lives on 14th in one of those homes. And I have noticed, most of them below aloha are in pretty sad shape. But I think 14th and 16th are totally different things. I drove by that place on my way home. It looks pretty nice and likely will go for over asking - but N of Aloha it would be worth 200k more. I note that the massive place on the SW corner of 16th and aloha is a boarding house. There is no multi-family at all N of Aloha, E of 15th and everything I have seen on the market there seems to be north of $1mm.
I probably walk by that house 10x a week, and all the other ones too. I don't need a wikipedia for my hood!
Since I owned house on 17th, I know the 'hood pretty well. 747 16th Ave E., owned by the Evergreen Land Trust, is not a multi-family unit but is being used as a cooperative. In fact look at the plat maps and you'll see the biggest lots adjacent to Aloha on both the north and south sides; this continues south to Roy and north to Prospect. 1508 E. Prospect just closed for $970k while 602 18th Ave E. just closed for $877k. 602 18th is half the size and still required a new Kitchen.
Some of the nicest homes in Seattle are in the Belmont/Harvard district next to multi-family dwelling units; especially on Harvard. I will give you that 16th from Aloha to Prospect is stellar. The road turns at 16th & Prospect so there's less traffic. Also 17th is better than 16th between Roy and Aloha; no multi-family units and more gentrified.
IMO the reason 723 16th Ave E. is cheap is not the location nor the size, it's just that it hasn't been remodeled and it's owned free and clear (it still uses oil heat). The last sale happened at least 50 years ago. Nothing on the two specific blocks I've mentioned 16th & 17th, Roy to Aloha, has sold for less than $1.1M the last two years.
Well, we can agree to disagree on the relative merits of n/s of aloha. given the same house for the same $, I'd take north. My $0.02.
but I do think that the area as a whole has held up better than just about any place in Seattle. I haven't seen much - if anything - in the way of price drops
That property at 720 14th was short platted prior to it's 2002 sale, so a 6000 square foot piece was cut off from the original parcel, and sold separately.
Well, we can agree to disagree on the relative merits of n/s of aloha. given the same house for the same $, I'd take north. My $0.02.
In general I agree with your assessment but I guess my point is that it's more block by block rather than N/S of Aloha. For instance I wouldn't buy on 15th, 19th or North of Galer. Or that 17th between Harrison and Republican is a great block.
but I do think that the area as a whole has held up better than just about any place in Seattle. I haven't seen much - if anything - in the way of price drops
As someone who has just exited I can tell you that price drops are happening on Capitol Hill and that very few are getting asking. I think 723 16th Ave E will go for close to asking. Of course I haven't been inside it so that's just my initial thought.
900 18th Ave E. has price cut over $300k and will continue to decline.
910 17th Ave E has price cut $300k and will continue to decline.
952 16th Ave E which is a better block than the 700 block was sitting and then taken off the market.
1123 16th Ave E sold for $300k less than the original asking; still think it was overpriced.
That property at 720 14th was short platted prior to it's 2002 sale, so a 6000 square foot piece was cut off from the original parcel, and sold separately.
Strange that they were one lot because the plat map shows an alley between them. Carriage house perhaps? BTW both lots were owned by the United Church of Christ.
I've looked at the flips for just about every neighborhood in seattle. I don't mean a few - I mean I download the records for every home on the market and see how current asking vs. last sold compares for homes purchased in the last ~30 months. I've also looked at price per square foot by neighborhood for the past 15+ years. By either of those measures, Capitol Hill is holding up quite well. That's what I meant by strong.
nobody seems to be losing money. they certainly are not on any of the listings you point to - even with substantial price drops. the same cannot be said for West Seattle, Ballard, etc..
I'm not personally vested in it, as I'm renting right now and I don't even want to live there long term. I am just making an observation - which I can support w/fact based comparisons - that it is doing better than most other neighborhoods.
I've looked at the flips for just about every neighborhood in seattle. I don't mean a few - I mean I download the records for every home on the market and see how current asking vs. last sold compares for homes purchased in the last ~30 months. I've also looked at price per square foot by neighborhood for the past 15+ years. By either of those measures, Capitol Hill is holding up quite well. That's what I meant by strong.
nobody seems to be losing money. they certainly are not on any of the listings you point to - even with substantial price drops. the same cannot be said for West Seattle, Ballard, etc..
Well it's kind of hard to lose money when you bought in the 80's and 90's when this part of Capitol Hill was in disrepair and Mansions could be bought for 1/4 of today's pricing. Of the houses mentioned, only the 900 18th property was a flipper but without knowing costs it's hard to tell if they will make or lose money. 952 16th was a complete gut and remodel, probably close to a $800k-1M dollars worth of work. It didn't sell for a $1M over last purchase and was pulled off the market.
Price per sqft is the most important measure and by that metric houses on Capitol Hill can be purchased for 10-12% less than peak pricing of 2007. Final seller payout is less commission (6%), taxes (2%), and fees (0.5%) so you must sell for 8.5% over the prior buy price to not lose money.
Given that here are some owners who will lose money:
1807 E Thomas St - bought for $469k in 2006 and is selling for $469k. This one is now FSBO to save money.
628 11th Ave E will be probably sell for $715k max and will effectively get less than 2004 purchase price (Net $660k).
2214 E Highland Dr was purchased in 2007 for $1.8M in 2007 an is selling for the same. Net will be around $1.65M.
No one can tell if a flipper lost money without knowing their construction and carry costs. Most flippers are purchased with negatively amortizing loans so the longer they sit the more the flipper eats. I can tell you that 1616 E. Harrison was purchased in 2005 and is being flipped; the owner has an Option ARM and it wouldn't surprise me if it went for auction.
Nov 25, 1991 $220,000 --
Jan 11, 2008 $798,813 8.3%/yr
now at $475K
Somethings odd there
Whoever paid $800k for that must have bought it blind.
That stretch of Aurora is basically crack whore row. The building itself is zoned mixed commercial/residential. It's been a B&B for a while, and I think there may be a hydroponics business in the back.
House totally gutted, be careful when viewing. Not for the faint-hearted. Bring your guts and checkbook. Will require CASH or REHAB loan only. Motivated seller says bring all offers now! This is NOT a short sale. Sold as-is, no warr of any kind. Buyer to verify all info to their satisfaction. Keybox is on garage door.
Feb 14, 2008 $680,000
Now @ $309,000 Actually that is a good deal for that location.
That doesn't look that bad to me. I was expceting a Detroit-style stripped bare house.
Agreed. I mean the first thing you'd do in a lot of these places is gut them anyways. So they've done that work for you. Now just install good stuff and you're ready to go.
I want to go on the record as saying that I think Seattle will be even worse than this. Thieves won't only strip homes bare, they will replace what they took with anti-matter thus creating negative value which will drag down the values of homes in other dimensions while curiously not affecting comparable neighborhood homes. Investors brave enough to buy these lots will attempt to un-rent them in order to generate a cash flow only to find that the amount they earn is an imaginary number.
That house didn't make any sense to me last year. I was looking at it, and couldn't believe they were asking that for an unineresting house on a small lot on a busy street. Imagine my shock when it sold.
That house didn't make any sense to me last year. I was looking at it, and couldn't believe they were asking that for an unineresting house on a small lot on a busy street. Imagine my shock when it sold.
The only thing I can think is fraud.
Sometimes the greater fool theory actually works!
If the owner is an agent, I think that may be why he overpaid. People don't understand that to be an agent you really have to drink the coolaid. Most agents actually believe their own hype until it is too late.
Sold: Jun 01, 2007 $859,500
Asking price: $669,950
Plus
$5,000 buyer bonus if closed by 9/30/08. Agent is owner.
That house didn't make any sense to me last year. I was looking at it, and couldn't believe they were asking that for an unineresting house on a small lot on a busy street. Imagine my shock when it sold.
The only thing I can think is fraud.
I don't think it was fraud. I think it was peak bubble timing and stupidity. The owner/agent is going to take a $200,000+ loss on this property. Ouch.
I would be shocked if the owner has that much equity from a down payment. They plan on bringing cash to the closing. That one is gonna sting.
I want to go on the record as saying that I think Seattle will be even worse than this.
Why do you think Seattle will be worse than Detroit? While I would agree that we are in bubble popping mode, I think most people would agree that the economy is a bit more promising around this region than in the rust belt.
Were you just having fun with your post? Or do you have some real reasons for believing that we are merely a version of Detroit on the Duwamish River? :-)
Why do you think Seattle will be worse than Detroit?
I was poking fun at housing perma-bulls that insist, with no evidence, that bubble heads all believe that housing in Seattle will be worse than everywhere else.
Comments
Since I owned house on 17th, I know the 'hood pretty well. 747 16th Ave E., owned by the Evergreen Land Trust, is not a multi-family unit but is being used as a cooperative. In fact look at the plat maps and you'll see the biggest lots adjacent to Aloha on both the north and south sides; this continues south to Roy and north to Prospect. 1508 E. Prospect just closed for $970k while 602 18th Ave E. just closed for $877k. 602 18th is half the size and still required a new Kitchen.
Some of the nicest homes in Seattle are in the Belmont/Harvard district next to multi-family dwelling units; especially on Harvard. I will give you that 16th from Aloha to Prospect is stellar. The road turns at 16th & Prospect so there's less traffic. Also 17th is better than 16th between Roy and Aloha; no multi-family units and more gentrified.
IMO the reason 723 16th Ave E. is cheap is not the location nor the size, it's just that it hasn't been remodeled and it's owned free and clear (it still uses oil heat). The last sale happened at least 50 years ago. Nothing on the two specific blocks I've mentioned 16th & 17th, Roy to Aloha, has sold for less than $1.1M the last two years.
but I do think that the area as a whole has held up better than just about any place in Seattle. I haven't seen much - if anything - in the way of price drops
In general I agree with your assessment but I guess my point is that it's more block by block rather than N/S of Aloha. For instance I wouldn't buy on 15th, 19th or North of Galer. Or that 17th between Harrison and Republican is a great block.
As someone who has just exited I can tell you that price drops are happening on Capitol Hill and that very few are getting asking. I think 723 16th Ave E will go for close to asking. Of course I haven't been inside it so that's just my initial thought.
900 18th Ave E. has price cut over $300k and will continue to decline.
910 17th Ave E has price cut $300k and will continue to decline.
952 16th Ave E which is a better block than the 700 block was sitting and then taken off the market.
1123 16th Ave E sold for $300k less than the original asking; still think it was overpriced.
Property Records for 720 14th Ave E.
Property Records for 1415 E. Valley (Adjacent Lot)
Strange that they were one lot because the plat map shows an alley between them. Carriage house perhaps? BTW both lots were owned by the United Church of Christ.
nobody seems to be losing money. they certainly are not on any of the listings you point to - even with substantial price drops. the same cannot be said for West Seattle, Ballard, etc..
I'm not personally vested in it, as I'm renting right now and I don't even want to live there long term. I am just making an observation - which I can support w/fact based comparisons - that it is doing better than most other neighborhoods.
I'm out on this one
Well it's kind of hard to lose money when you bought in the 80's and 90's when this part of Capitol Hill was in disrepair and Mansions could be bought for 1/4 of today's pricing. Of the houses mentioned, only the 900 18th property was a flipper but without knowing costs it's hard to tell if they will make or lose money. 952 16th was a complete gut and remodel, probably close to a $800k-1M dollars worth of work. It didn't sell for a $1M over last purchase and was pulled off the market.
Price per sqft is the most important measure and by that metric houses on Capitol Hill can be purchased for 10-12% less than peak pricing of 2007. Final seller payout is less commission (6%), taxes (2%), and fees (0.5%) so you must sell for 8.5% over the prior buy price to not lose money.
Given that here are some owners who will lose money:
1807 E Thomas St - bought for $469k in 2006 and is selling for $469k. This one is now FSBO to save money.
628 11th Ave E will be probably sell for $715k max and will effectively get less than 2004 purchase price (Net $660k).
2214 E Highland Dr was purchased in 2007 for $1.8M in 2007 an is selling for the same. Net will be around $1.65M.
No one can tell if a flipper lost money without knowing their construction and carry costs. Most flippers are purchased with negatively amortizing loans so the longer they sit the more the flipper eats. I can tell you that 1616 E. Harrison was purchased in 2005 and is being flipped; the owner has an Option ARM and it wouldn't surprise me if it went for auction.
http://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/3929-A ... me/2078464
Nov 25, 1991 $220,000 --
Jan 11, 2008 $798,813 8.3%/yr
now at $475K
Somethings odd there
Whoever paid $800k for that must have bought it blind.
That stretch of Aurora is basically crack whore row. The building itself is zoned mixed commercial/residential. It's been a B&B for a while, and I think there may be a hydroponics business in the back.
So, yeah...
http://www5.kingcounty.gov/kcgisreports ... 1931301040
http://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/1546-M ... ome/140368
House totally gutted, be careful when viewing. Not for the faint-hearted. Bring your guts and checkbook. Will require CASH or REHAB loan only. Motivated seller says bring all offers now! This is NOT a short sale. Sold as-is, no warr of any kind. Buyer to verify all info to their satisfaction. Keybox is on garage door.
Feb 14, 2008 $680,000
Now @ $309,000 Actually that is a good deal for that location.
Agreed. I mean the first thing you'd do in a lot of these places is gut them anyways. So they've done that work for you. Now just install good stuff and you're ready to go.
I want to go on the record as saying that I think Seattle will be even worse than this. Thieves won't only strip homes bare, they will replace what they took with anti-matter thus creating negative value which will drag down the values of homes in other dimensions while curiously not affecting comparable neighborhood homes. Investors brave enough to buy these lots will attempt to un-rent them in order to generate a cash flow only to find that the amount they earn is an imaginary number.
Edit: Fixed typo
http://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/5533-3 ... ome/313015
Sold: Jun 01, 2007 $859,500
Asking price: $669,950
Plus
$5,000 buyer bonus if closed by 9/30/08. Agent is owner.
The only thing I can think is fraud.
If the owner is an agent, I think that may be why he overpaid. People don't understand that to be an agent you really have to drink the coolaid. Most agents actually believe their own hype until it is too late.
I don't think it was fraud. I think it was peak bubble timing and stupidity. The owner/agent is going to take a $200,000+ loss on this property. Ouch.
I would be shocked if the owner has that much equity from a down payment. They plan on bringing cash to the closing. That one is gonna sting.
Why do you think Seattle will be worse than Detroit? While I would agree that we are in bubble popping mode, I think most people would agree that the economy is a bit more promising around this region than in the rust belt.
Were you just having fun with your post? Or do you have some real reasons for believing that we are merely a version of Detroit on the Duwamish River? :-)
She's probably hoping her other house sells first, but $925k sounds a bit pricey for the area.
http://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/6509-3 ... e/16883420
$1 House in Detroit Took 19 Days to Sell, http://blog.redfin.com/seattle/2008/08/ ... _sell.html
Though I guess comps there are virtually irrelevant.
That is a zillow killer.
I was poking fun at housing perma-bulls that insist, with no evidence, that bubble heads all believe that housing in Seattle will be worse than everywhere else.
Heart of pink-pony land, 519K in 2006, asking 483 now.
Sinking:
Jul 02, 2008 $769,000
Aug 13, 2008 $729,000
Sep 03, 2008 $699,000
West Seattle seems to be the in-city neighborhood with some of the most mid-to-high end that are taking it in the shorts.
That one just sold two weeks ago at $439,032. Now they are asking $483,000. Good luck with that.
Sales History Property Tax
Date Price
Dec 13, 1988 $115,000
Nov 06, 2006 $519,000
Aug 22, 2008 $439,032