Guess the Price Round 6: We Have a Winner!

Guess the Price Round 6: We Have a Winner!

Six weeks ago we launched our latest price-guessing contest: Guess the Price Round 6: "Ready to Shine" in Fremont. Forty-two readers made guesses this round before the home went pending on April 16th.

4214 Midvale Ave NToday’s “Guess the Price” guest star is 4214 Midvale Ave N in Seattle’s Fremont neighborhood.

This round’s home hit the market yesterday with an asking price of $415,000. This is not the first time it has been for sale in the last few years—it was originally listed in September 2011, had a couple of price drops, and was delisted in December 2011. The market today is quite a bit different than it was in late 2011, so I suspect they’ll have better luck this time.

Your guesses ranged from $405,000 to $486,000. The average price guessed was $439,283, and the median guess was $435,000. Here’s the plot of all the guesses, with the final close price & date marked in green:

Price Guesses: 4214 Midvale Ave N

According to the NWMLS, the home sold on May 21 (just under six weeks after listing), with a closing price of $450,000. Oddly enough, nobody guessed exactly $450,000. However, two people were just $1,000 off—whynot guessed $451,000 and KC guessed $449,000—which makes this the first round to go to the tie-breaker of guessing closing date. Whynot guessed a closing date of 5/10, while KC hit the nail on the head, guessing the closing date exactly right at 5/21. Congratulations to KC!

Here’s the difference between the average guess and the final sale price our contests so far:

  1. -2.2%
  2. +5.5%
  3. -10.5%
  4. +10.0%
  5. +2.8%
  6. -2.4%

Not bad. Seattle Bubble guessers have been collectively within 5% of the sale price in half of our contests so far. That’s quite a bit better than Zillow’s stated accuracy for the Seattle area, where their “Zestimates” are within 5% of the sale price just 33% of the time, and not even within 20% of the sale price 17% of the time.

Stay tuned in the next few weeks, when we’ll kick off another round of Guess the Price.

  

About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

9 comments:

  1. 1
    Blurtman says:

    Extremeley well staged except for the bedroom and yard. Out the window views should have been Photoshopped in with views of the French countryside, although views of the Himalayan rainforest, while perhaps a risky gambit, might have appealed to the right yuppie.

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  2. 2
    Peter Witting says:

    RE: Blurtman @ 1 – I read that as “photoshop in a frisky rabbit”. Now that would have demanded a premium, for sure!

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  3. 3

    Zillow is a premium priced publicly traded stock, despite not being especially accurate at what is supposed to be their specialty.
    Therefore, Seattle Bubble ought to go public. Doesn’t matter if it doesn’t make money. The Tim would make a fine CEO.

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  4. 4
    Pegasus says:

    Nice garage! Solid proof that fools are still being born everyday and that few learned their lessons from the not so distant housing crash. Did they pay cash or was there a complicit real estate appraiser and a stupid banker involved in the transaction?

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  5. 5

    RE: Blurtman @ 1

    Yes

    The cracked sidewalk and poorly carved/sectioned weed bed [?} with hardly no front lawn made me want to get out there with my landscaping tools. Perhaps the new owner can clean it up a bit.

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  6. 6
    Erik says:

    It would be nice to have some educational real estate non-technical posts. This is not educational.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  7. 7
    MM says:

    RE: Pegasus @ 4 – They have a mortgage loan according to the King County records.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  8. 8
    mike says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 5 – The sidewalk added $20K easily, cracks and all.

    By Blurtman @ 1:

    might have appealed to the right yuppie.

    Surely you don’t think any self respecting yuppie would park their bimmer on the street!

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  9. 9
    Erik says:

    Tim finally put the smack down on me posting comments from 2 different emails, so I’m going to post my valuable comment out of context here.

    This was a reply to Corndogs on the previous post. Unfortunately, I had ran out of 5 comments and had to end the conversation. Here it is…

    Okay. Good job on hitting it dead on. I would love to know everyone’s financial position and history, but I will probably never know for sure. I can tell you the place I bought has probably 80k equity and I dumped my rental, which was -116k. That is my only good real estate move. I contribute to the 401k to get my company match. Other than that, I have nothing.

    I need a multiplex like you said. “Focus on cash flow, not getting rich.” I think I lost sight of that somewhere along the line. I will sell this place, buy a multiplex(hopefully more than a duplex), and rent. You said you rented yourself while renting to others. I think that will be my only way to proceed since I don’t have the leverage to carry a rental and own my own place.

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