Guess the Price Round 7: West Seattle Almost-Beach

It is well past time for another new round of “Guess the Price.” Here’s how the game works. I’ll describe a home that’s currently on the market, giving you as many pros and cons as I can, and you guess what the final sale price will be when/if it sells.

Be sure to enter your real email address into the form when you leave your guess in the comments, because the winner gets a $25 gift card to the restaurant chain of their choosing. Don’t worry, I’m the only one that can see the emails that are entered. The winner is the person whose guess is closest to the final sale price, above or below. If there is a tie, whoever guessed closer to the correct closing date will be declared the winner.

Contest closes to entries at midnight the morning of September 23rd, or when the home goes pending, whichever comes first. Note that in Round 6 the home went pending in 4 days, and in Round 5 it was just a few hours after the contest opened, so I recommend getting your guess in early.

3015 64th Ave SW, Seattle, WA 98116Today’s “Guess the Price” guest star is 3015 64th Ave SW in West Seattle.

This round’s home hit the market last Wednesday with an asking price of $529,000. It last sold almost 13 years ago in November 2000 for $320,000, so today’s asking price represents average annual appreciation of just under 4 percent. For reference, the Case-Shiller index for Seattle has gained roughly 3 percent per year over the same period, a rate that would put the current value of this home at $475,000.

Our home this month is not bank-owned, a short sale, or a flip. It sits in the far west corner of West Seattle‘s Alki neighborhood, where the median price of single-family homes sold in August was $617,000. Here’s an excerpt from the listing agent’s description:

Sited JUST ONE HOUSE from the beach & in the Alki School zone, the location can’t be beat! This charmer w/ view front porch & sun room has all the classic character of its era. Featuring original hardwood floors, 2 bay windows, period-correct mouldings, copper plumbing, upgraded 200 Amp breaker box, and gas appliances!

3015 64th Ave SW, Seattle, WA 98116Built in 16, this 1-story home (with basement) sports 2 bedrooms and one full bathroom. Both of the bedrooms are on the main floor, while the basement is mostly unfinished, containing a “Den/Office” and “Bonus Room,” according to the listing.

According to the King County Department of Assessments, 1,300 of the home’s square feet are above ground, with an additional 1,080 in the basement. Note that the MLS listing is displaying the square footage as 2,380, which includes the entirety of the unfinished basement. This misleading information is built by design into the NWMLS system.

3015 64th Ave SW, Seattle, WA 98116Inside, the home looks to be in decent, but not amazing condition. Many of the original period details remain, as noted by the listing agent, although “original hardwood floors” look like they probably need to be refinished. For some reason the trim in the main rooms on the first floor suddenly switches at one point between rooms from the original hardwood to white boards.

The kitchen looks like it has plenty of counter space, but a limited amount of cabinets. The countertops and appliances in the kitchen look like they were replaced in the ’90s or early ’00s. The cabinets are probably older than that, although they appear to have been painted somewhat recently.

3015 64th Ave SW, Seattle, WA 98116Off the back of the home in lieu of a yard there’s a deck, complete with a hot tub. Unfortunately, neither is covered, so I wouldn’t expect to get much use out of these features during the wet half of the year.

The exterior of the home appears to be in decent condition. From the photos the paint looks relatively new. There is virtually zero yard to speak of, but the tiny little strip around the home appears to be well-landscaped. The listing also notes that this home provides no off-street parking.

Two different Redfin agents have been to see this home and published public insights. Joe Hunt noted that “both the front and back of the home appear to have been added on or enclosed” and that “cosmetic and system upgrades needed.” Elisa Reuhlmann said that the home has a “great floor plan.”

Overall, both the house and the location seem nice, but not amazing. Based on what other similar nearby homes have been selling for the asking price seems like it might be a bit high to me. There are just 10 houses for sale in Alki right now, so they may be banking on a continued supply shortage to carry the high price.

Summary of 3015 64th Ave SW

  • Pros
    • close to Alki beach
    • nice period details
    • central heating
    • well-kept exterior
    • good floor plan
    • deck with hot tub
  • Cons
    • no yard
    • no off-street parking
    • limited kitchen cabinet space
    • hardwood floors are worn
    • deck and hot tub are uncovered

So, what say you? How much will this home sell for, and when will it sell?

0.00 avg. rating (0% score) - 0 votes

About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. Tim also hosts the weekly improv comedy sci-fi podcast Dispatches from the Multiverse.


  1. 1
    nize says:

    $521,965 by october 31.

  2. 2
    Dave0 says:

    $530,000, closing October 15th.

  3. 3
    wreckingbull says:

    $540K. Closes in 67 days from now.



    – Fart-can Honda Civics
    – 1000 Watt subwoofer thump
    – Meathead brawls


    – Wintertime at Alki

  4. 4
    wreckingbull says:

    By the way, no offstreet parking in this neighborhood is a serious problem. There is a reason that this is being listed the last week of summer. I missed that. 510K. (since edit is broken)

    Tim, can you look into broken edit? It just hangs with Firefox. I need edit so that I can soften my replys to corndogs and not hurt his fragile ego.

  5. 5
    The Tim says:

    RE: wreckingbull @ 4 – I’ll see if I can make some time to investigate the edit issue. I tried updating the plugin to the latest version a while ago but that seriously broke it across all browsers, so I reverted. Might be that the old version has some issues with the newer version of WordPress that I’m running.

    [Edit] I updated the plugin and now it seems to be working for me again (in Chrome). Give it a try and let me know.

  6. 6
    KCJ says:

    $523, 750 – closing on 10/23/2013

  7. 7
    SS says:

    $529,000, closing on Oct. 30th.

  8. 8
    Tim McB says:

    535k closing on Oct 25th.

  9. 9
    Oof says:

    $524k closing on 11/7

  10. 10

    Wood Decks in Seattle are So Out-dated Now

    Everything like that is primarily going cement now….wood is a joke in our wet climate.

    The deck shown may be that new plastic wood laminate[?]…..another joke, it cracks from ultra-violet…cement is king….

    $520K closing Nov 15, 2013

  11. 11
    Glaciers says:


    Closes October 31

  12. 12
    FWIW says:

    A big con for me; no bus service to speak of, and it’s a very long hike up the hill to a grocery. So, car required for even the most trivial purchases.
    $515,000 – just before Thanksgiving, say 11/18.

  13. 13
    wreckingbull says:

    RE: The Tim @ 5 – Thanks, I’ll try to edit this post.

    [Edit] Works!

  14. 14
    kdogg says:

    $518,000. 11/1/2013

  15. 15
    nwbackpacker says:

    $520k 9/25/2013

  16. 16
    Erik says:

    $515,000 closes November 1st Thanks for the help chugach

  17. 17
    Peter Witting says:

    $535,000 closing october 15th.

  18. 18

    This is not my guess, as I’m not permitted to make one. It is from someone who is not in the real estate industry, and who I will make sure receives the gift certificate should she win:
    524,000 on 10/18/2013

  19. 19
    Steve says:

    525k closing on October 17th.

  20. 20
    nize says:

    -no parking
    -1 bathroom for a half million dollar house, seriously?
    -lots of condos across the street (no parking)
    -by alki point (longest possible commute)
    -no backyard
    -drunk people at all hours of the night (if you like to sleep)
    -did i mention no parking?

    -some benefits of a beach house without the maintenance that comes with living right on the beach
    -drunk people at all hours of the night (if you like to party)

  21. 21
    Erik says:

    RE: Ira Sacharoff @ 18
    Your dog can’t vote.

  22. 22
    The Tim says:

    By Erik @ 21:

    RE: Ira Sacharoff @ 18
    Your dog can’t vote.

    Except in King County Elections.

    Balogh was charged in June after elections workers realized that she had registered her Australian shepherd-terrier, Duncan, as a voter, including his paw print on the application. She first put his name on a phone bill and then used that utility record in applying to register Duncan to vote. She signed the declaration attesting to Duncan’s eligibility to vote, prosecutors said.

    The application was approved and ballots were mailed to Balogh in Duncan’s name. Balogh did not vote the ballots, but marked them “void” and mailed them in.

  23. 23
    LMaS says:

    Lots of comments when a $25 gift card is on the line ;) I’ll go with $508,000 on October 25th.

  24. 24
    ChrisM says:

    Because I’m a jerk, $515,000 closes November 2nd. As a kid I watched Price is Right, and wondered why more contestants didn’t game the system.

  25. 25
    Raisinpaw says:

    540k. Close 10/18/13.

  26. 26
    Jacob Beaty says:

    5k over list closes in 60 days

  27. 27
    Jose says:

    $ 495,000.
    Close: October 15th

  28. 28

    By Erik @ 21:

    RE: Ira Sacharoff @ 18
    Your dog can’t vote.

    Tell that to my dog. She picks better candidates than most of the voters do.

  29. 29
    Erik says:

    RE: The Tim @ 22
    Ha ha. They just got mad because she proved the system is flawed. They should praise her for showing that the system is flawed. Instead they charge her with a crime. Crazy.

  30. 30
    whynot says:

    Pending: November 28
    Sold: December 15

  31. 31
    toad37 says:

    Let’s go for 526k, closing on 10/15/13

  32. 32
    David Losh says:

    Both of my dogs are pretty excited about this property, and think it will sell all cash at $510K and close in a week. They probably already have the offer in hand and are waiting for something better.

    Just kidding, my dogs don’t really care. I wanted to see if the edit button was working. It does!

  33. 33
    Astro Kermit says:

    $520,000 closing middle of November.

    They are including the unfinished basement. So $ / square foot is probably going to go beyond $260. This home will face appraisal challenges from the lender so the buyer will cover out of pocket the differences ($20k +), hence the delay to the middle of November. Also the fact that this is being covered on Seattle Bubble will attract more attention but also sway potential buyers away when they read our comments :-)

  34. 34
    Oof says:

    RE: Ira Sacharoff @ 18 – Nice – she stole my number…..

  35. 35
    Mike says:

    November 15th

  36. 36
    David B. says:

    RE: FWIW @ 12 – “So, car required for even the most trivial purchases.”

    And not only that, no off-street parking in a neighborhood where on-street parking is very difficult to find for part of the year! Still bet it will sell for a fairly good price, however: some folks are willing to shell out and overlook drawbacks to be close to the beach. (And they can have that property, thank you very much.)

  37. 37
    Beau says:

    $510,000 October 18.

  38. 38
    UrbanDweller says:

    $512,000 – Nov. 19th

  39. 39
    mike says:

    Anyone notice the vacant lot next door changed hands last year…?

  40. 40
    jld says:

    508K, Oct 27th

  41. 41
    Astro Kermit says:

    By mike @ 39:

    Anyone notice the vacant lot next door changed hands last year…?

    Interesting. Vacant but the garage to the alley way is still there.

    Address is:
    3021 64th Ave SW Seattle, WA 98116

    Redfin link:

    No permits have been filed so there is nothing immediate on the horizon in terms of construction.

  42. 42
    David Losh says:

    RE: Astro Kermit @ 41

    Those garages may be worth more than the houses.

    Garage codes may have changed since these were built, and if you tear them down you may not be permitted for anything better.

  43. 43
    Astro Kermit says:

    RE: David Losh @ 42

    You mind sharing some more info on that? I’m in a situation where I plan on building a garage into my alley.

  44. 44
    David B. says:

    RE: Erik @ 29 – One of the basic rules of the civil disobedience strategy is “don’t do the crime if you can’t do the time.” In other words, research what the penalties for whatever law you’re choosing to break are likely to be, and decide if you’re willing to accept them. It *is* unlawful, after all.

  45. 45
    David B. says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 10 – I quibble with the terminology you use. If it’s concrete, I call it a “patio” not a “deck”.

  46. 46
    Eden says:

    I’ll guess 511,500 Pending September 27th.

  47. 47
    nize says:

    By Astro Kermit @ 41:

    By mike @ 39:

    Anyone notice the vacant lot next door changed hands last year…?

    Interesting. Vacant but the garage to the alley way is still there.

    Address is:
    3021 64th Ave SW Seattle, WA 98116

    Redfin link:

    No permits have been filed so there is nothing immediate on the horizon in terms of construction.

    there is no garage in the alleyway, you are looking at the property two doors down which has a house and a garage;

    the empty lot immediately next door is still empty and looks like it was never developed;

    of course that doesn’t mean it won’t be developed, just that it’s currently vacant land.

  48. 48
    KKyle says:

    $512 closes 10/20

  49. 49
    David Losh says:

    RE: Astro Kermit @ 43

    Here is the Department of Design and Development Code. Look at page 5 Exceptions to Standard Yard Requirements.

    It allows existing structures.

  50. 50
    Astro Kermit says:

    Thanks David!

  51. 51
    mike says:

    By Erik @ 29:

    RE: The Tim @ 22
    Ha ha. They just got mad because she proved the system is flawed. They should praise her for showing that the system is flawed. Instead they charge her with a crime. Crazy.

    I’m not sure breaking the law simply because it’s difficult to enforce is a good excuse. You do realize it’s exceptionally hard to prove someone is stalking and harassing you until they are actually caught committing another crime in the process ? Based on your interpretation, it’s OK to engage in this behavior because it’s merely pointing out a flaw in the system.

    Come to think of it, if you’re seriously considering renting out your condo you should watch the movie Pacific Heights. I’d like to hear your take on “pointing out a flaw in the system” if you ended up with a tenant like the main character.

  52. 52
    David Losh says:

    RE: mike @ 51

    Yesterday I was talking with a woman who owns a house in LA that they rent out. The guy got 8 months behind on his rent payments, and just got up to being three months behind.

    They were asking what to do, and I said evict him. Better yet they could sell there, and pay off the house they live in, and still have some money left over to buy a little place here, in Tacoma.

    They are weighing the decision, but it used to be good until it got bad.

  53. 53
    Andrew says:

    $500K-ish, sometime in October or November!

    Yes, I’m still stupidly bear-ish and still hope there’s a correction happening soon…. :(

  54. 54
    Erik says:

    RE: mike @ 51
    Once she actually got the ballot, she wrote void on it to show them how that the someone could easily sign their dog up and double vote. No harm was done. She got in trouble anyway because she made them look like fools.

    This isn’t my first time renting a residence out. I’m not sure what pacific heights is. I just get the standard documents for them to sign and check their background. I may just have someone rent it for me to avoid the hassle if I have large enough of a cash flow I will sell if I can make over $100k. I think I will make over $100k unless the market dumps like Matthew indicated earlier.

  55. 55
    Jonness says:

    I assess this dump at $475K, but I suspect some idiot will pay as much as $502 for it around Dec, 1st.

  56. 56

    RE: Erik @ 54
    Pacific Heights is an awesome movie, with Michael Keaton playing the tenant from hell. Well worth seeing.

  57. 57
    mike says:

    RE: Erik @ 53 The issue was she signed documentation on behalf of someone that was incapable of giving legal consent for her to do so (dog).

    on point #2

  58. 58
    Lo Ball Jones says:

    You could spin your wheels with Seattle Real Estate psychopathy.

    Or, you could take a trip…to the good life…in Gillette, Wyoming!

    Feast your eyes on this 5 bedroom, 3 full bath, 1,920 sqft Home!

    Price? $213,400 !

    Or this sweet “Mt. Adams” Craftsman…3 bedrooms for $204,600! A bit ‘o Old Seattle at a price that inspires!

  59. 59

    RE: Lo Ball Jones @ 58

    I’ve Lived In Seattle All My Life

    Before it got barraged with “out-of-staters” [mostly California] and they mowed all the trees down from the 60s and 70s. IMO, the California developers took over the King County Planning Councils too….why else would they vote to add unlimited homes to already clogged freeway accesses the last four decades? The east coast would never have allowed this over-building zoning nonsense.

    I imagine most of the “out-of-staters” King County Council members live in the Seattle city limits, not the suburbs, where they are immune from the excessive building on clogged freeway entrances. They even vote to put all their sewage treatment plants in the suburbs too.

  60. 60
    Blurtman says:

    $540,000, and torn down for apodment.

  61. 61
    David B. says:

    RE: Lo Ball Jones @ 58 – “Or, you could take a trip…to the good life…in Gillette, Wyoming! ”

    And enjoy the sophisticated culture, varied selection of job opportunities, and mild agreeable climate.

    Oh, wait…

  62. 62
    Ted says:

    $498,750 closes December 28th – seems ridiculous for a 2 bedroom in West Seattle even if it is close to Alki but I’d bet some sucker will pay it.

    Based on the King County Records the property next door and the next two beyond that (3021 and 3023) are all owned by the same two owners (looks like brothers). All three properies changed hands via quit claim deed estate settlement in 2012. Development seems smart and likely in the not too distant future. Haven’t checked the zoning so I have no idea what can be built.

    With that said, this property is empty, which made me wonder. Turns out, by looking at King County property details, and tax records it looks like the current owner is living (renting) out of state. Linkedin reveals they have had that job out of state since 2006. It makes me wonder if the house has just been rented out since then. The kitchen is dated, the floors look like they need work. In general, it looks worn but it also looks like the RE agent made every effort to spruce up the images.

    My guess is that the owner wants to sell so they can buy in their new location. Their renter finally moved out so they are getting it on the market a little late in the season but they are still feeling a little greedy because their new location is expensive. They still have a mortgage of some sort so they probably don’t want to let it sit empty too long. They will probably come down slightly on the price as the weeks go by.

  63. 63
    The Tim says:

    RE: Ted @ 62 – Wow, that is probably the most well-researched guess in the history of Guess the Price to date. Well done.

  64. 64
    mike says:

    RE: Ted @ 62 – I noticed that as well with the adjacent lots. Kind of amazing someone held on to a vacant plot in such a prime location for so long – unless they were waiting for some up-zoning to really take advantage of it.

  65. 65
    Erik says:

    RE: The Tim @ 63RE: Ted @ 62
    Ted must really be hungry to go out to dinner at a restaurant. He really wants that gift certificate. If I win, I will donate my certificate to Ted. It sounds like he needs it more than I do. I went out to dinner at a restaurant just last week.

  66. 66
    ChrisM says:

    RE: Lo Ball Jones @ 58 – Out of perverse curiosity, can you outline your region selection criteria? Your prior selections have nothing in common w/ PNW weather for instance. Is there something I’m missing? Up next: housing is cheap in the rust belt??

  67. 67
    Tim McB says:

    RE: Ted @ 62

    Ted nice analysis and it’s scary how much info that can be learned with just a simple internet search. Speaking of which on researching the brother owners of the properties to the south I figured I’d find a link to a residential or commercial developer’s website. However, I found this instead:

    My guess is that with their legal troubles the properties won’t be developed any time soon. It may also explain why it hasn’t been developed yet. What’s sad is that it seems that a fair amount of it had to do with property/money. Property rich, morally poor.

  68. 68
    Astro Kermit says:

    That is just horrible. The city should just take that land away from them and convert it into a park. It would be good to track these people so potential investors shy away. They don’t deserve a single penny.

  69. 69
    Lo Ball Jones says:

    By David B. @ 61:

    RE: Lo Ball Jones @ 58 – “Or, you could take a trip to the good lifein Gillette, Wyoming! ”

    And enjoy the sophisticated culture, varied selection of job opportunities, and mild agreeable climate.

    Oh, wait

    I live in the 21st century.

    99.9 percent of my entertainment comes from the Internet, TV, shopping malls and work.

    Given that, why not buy into the lowest cost place possible.

    Some place that is not crowded and tax-heavy and lets me drive my car to where I want to go.

    Gillette, Wyoming fits the bill!

  70. 70
    mike says:

    RE: Tim McB @ 67 – UGH. In that case, $425K, closing October 20th.

    Not just 1, but 2 horrible neighbors, no thanks.

  71. 71
    shaggy says:

    $489,000 closing November 5th.

  72. 72
    Azucar says:

    $490,000, December 3

    (sorry to box you in on the upper side, Shaggy)

  73. 73
    David B. says:

    RE: Lo Ball Jones @ 69 – Nice try, but “culture” encompasses more than just entertainment options, and you completely ignored the other two items on my list.

  74. 74
    Anna says:

    My first reply here… and my guess is:
    $468,850 Close Nov 29th

  75. 75
    ggrraahhaamm says:

    $528,000, closes October 23
    Just a guess anyway.

  76. 76
    Scott says:

    Mmm…just lowered price to $499,000

    No “Tim effect” unfortunately for this owner…I’ve noticed a lot more reductions lately…

  77. 77
    The Tim says:

    Apparently I didn’t do a great job of choosing a home this time around. I usually try to select a home that will sell quickly, but not too quickly. This one’s been on the market now for 88 days and just had another price drop down to $475,000—putting it right in line with the Case-Shiller index, based off its last sale in November 2000. It will be interesting to see if that’e enough to move it in December.

  78. 78
    nize says:

    it’s not selling because it took 2 months for the (inflated) price to drop 5% which likely means the seller is not very motivated.

    meanwhile, inventory is catching up;
    3209 63rd Ave SW
    Seattle, WA 98116

  79. 79
    tooklongenough says:

    Well, it finally sold. And none of us win!

  80. 80
    The Tim says:

    RE: tooklongenough @ 79 – The rules are whoever gets the closest to the final sale price, above or below… So that makes the winner Anna @ 74 who guessed $468,850. I’ll be notifying her via email and posting a summary later this week.

  81. 81
    nize says:

    wow, i thought this game would never end. :)

  82. 82
    Macro Investor says:

    Wow. Someone actually paid $451k for a 100 year old, 1400 square foot, 1 bathroom house with zero yard. Enjoy being cramped and uncomfortable, with your noisy neighbors breathing down your neck.

    This qualifies as the worst decision ever made. The only way it could get worse would be if there was no parking in an insanely crowded place like West Seattle. Oh wait…

  83. 83

    […] back in September we launched our latest price-guessing contest: Guess the Price Round 7: West Seattle Almost-Beach. Forty readers made guesses this round before the contest […]

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