Seattle Bubble

News & discussion about real estate & the housing bubble in the Seattle area.

Seattle Bubble - News & discussion about real estate & the housing bubble in the Seattle area.

Entries Tagged as 'King_County'

Puget Sound Counties Interactive October Update

By The Tim on November 13th, 2009 at 6:00 AM · 51 Comments

Let’s take a look at October NWMLS statistics from around the sound. As usual, courtesy Tableau Software, the Around the Sound update is rocking sweet interactive data visualizations.

Feel free to download the old charts in Excel 2007 and Excel 2003 format. To get specific info about a certain point on any graph in the post below, float your mouse pointer over the data.

Before we get to the cool stuff, here’s the usual table of YOY stats for each of our seven covered counties as of October 2009.

October 2009 King Snohomish Pierce Kitsap Thurston Island Skagit Whatcom
Median Price 3.7% 12.3% 10.3% 0.4% 10.7% 7.0% 10.1% 5.0%
Listings 19.7% 23.8% 22.8% 26.1% 14.5% 7.3% 4.2% 10.1%
Closed Sales 33.3% 42.5% 24.0% 5.5% 5.7% 26.8% 9.0% 19.0%
Seasonally Adjusted Active Supply 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.7 2.0 1.8

Summary

Hit the jump for the rest of this month’s interactive charts.

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Foreclosures Still Stalled by SB 5810?

By The Tim on November 12th, 2009 at 6:00 AM · 13 Comments

Let’s have a more detailed look at foreclosure activity for October in King, Snohomish, and Pierce counties. First up, the Notice of Trustee Sale summary:

October 2009
King: 666 NTS, up 4% YOY
Snohomish: 323 NTS, down 2% YOY
Pierce: 385 NTS, down 36% YOY

Foreclosure notices dipped a bit in all three counties last month. Unfortunately the foreclosure rate seems to historically be an extremely noisy measure, alternating up and down month-to-month nearly every month, so we can’t really read much into this particular one-month dip. And, thanks to SB 5810 (more on that here), the year-over-year numbers aren’t particularly useful right now, either..

Here’s a simple look at how October’s foreclosures compare to the same month last year in each of the three counties:

Notices of Trustee Sale

Next let’s look at the percentage of households that received a Notice of Trustee Sale (based on household data for each county from the American Community Survey, assuming linear household growth between surveys):

Households per Foreclosure

King County came in at 1 NTS per 1,185 households, Snohomish County had 1 NTS per 816 households, and Pierce had 1 NTS for every 774 households (higher is better).

According to foreclosure tracking company RealtyTrac, Washington’s statewide foreclosure rate of one foreclosure for every 822 households was 29rd worst among the 50 states and the District of Columbia (down from 23rd last month, possibly still due to SB 5810). Note that RealtyTrac’s definition of “in foreclosure” is much broader than what we are using, and includes Notice of Default, Lis Pendens, Notice of Trustee Sale, and Real Estate Owned.

Here’s a look at King County’s Notices of Trustee Sales along with Trustee Deeds (which represent one way that a bank can actually complete the foreclosure process and repossess a house).

King Co. NTS and Trustee Deeds

496 Trustee Deeds in King County set a new record, and was higher than the volume of Notices of Trustee Sales seen anytime prior to Q2 2008.

In case you’re curious, here’s one reason that I believe the current downtick in foreclosures is the result of the state legislation rather than an underlying fundamental trend of easing pressure on mortgage holders:

King County Foreclosures & Unemployment

Since 2000, the unemployment rate and the foreclosure rate have tracked fairly close to each other. It seems doubtful that we will see a significant reduction in the rate of distressed mortgage holders while still experiencing a rising unemployment rate.

Following are the usual charts of King, Pierce, and Snohomish County foreclosures from January 2000 through October 2009. Click below to continue…

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Puget Sound Counties Interactive September Update

By The Tim on November 2nd, 2009 at 8:00 AM · 5 Comments

Whoops, sorry this is late. It took a little extra time to put together this month, as I finally switched the data over from months of supply to Seasonally Adjusted Active Supply. So, let’s have our September data checkup of NWMLS statistics from around the sound. As usual, courtesy Tableau Software, the Around the Sound update is rocking exclusive interactive data visualizations.

Feel free to download the old charts in Excel 2007 and Excel 2003 format. To get specific info about a certain point on any graph in the post below, float your mouse pointer over the data.

Before we get to the cool stuff, here’s the usual table of YOY stats for each of our seven covered counties as of September 2009.

September 2009 King Snohomish Pierce Kitsap Thurston Island Skagit Whatcom
Median Price 7.9% 11.1% 8.2% 4.6% 2.8% 1.8% 2.0% 8.7%
Listings 19.4% 23.6% 25.8% 25.1% 15.8% 2.0% 4.9% 9.7%
Closed Sales 14.3% 14.6% 12.4% 14.5% 1.5% 11.5% 20.9% 19.3%
Seasonally Adjusted Active Supply 2.0 2.1 1.8 2.0 1.9 2.5 3.0 1.5

Hit the jump for this month’s interactive charts.

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Avoid Pitfalls When Appealing Your Property Tax Valuation

By Charlie Walsh on October 29th, 2009 at 12:00 PM · 15 Comments

Note from The Tim: The following is a guest post from Charlie Walsh, the Founder and CEO of ValueAppeal, a new startup based in Seattle. ValueAppeal is a simple online tool that homeowners can use to help them appeal their property tax assessments.

King County Property Tax Appeal Deadline Is Soon!

Each year counties around the country send out notices in the mail letting homeowners know what the new assessed value of their home is for property tax purposes. Unlike most counties around the country, King County doesn’t send out all of their assessment notices at the same time. Over the course of the summer, the King County Assessor sends out assessment notices for a different neighborhood each week. Homeowners have sixty (60) days from the postmark date on their mailing notice to file their appeal (a.k.a. Real Property Petition Form) with the King County Board of Equalization. That means each neighborhood’s appeal deadline is a little different.

When homeowners receive their notice in the mail that their property tax assessment has gone up above the market value of the home, the gut reaction is “there’s no way I could sell my house for that much.” That’s exactly what happened recently to the Thompson family in Seattle. They received a notice in the mail that their four bedroom, 3 bathroom home was assessed for over $675,000, way more than they could possibly sell it for on the open market.

Unfortunately, most homeowners leave it at that. They pay their bill grudgingly and try to forget about it. A lot of homeowners may not even realize how much they’re overpaying because their mortgage company pays the property taxes on their behalf and then adds it to their statement each month. Fortunately the Thompsons didn’t just accept their unfair assessment, they figured out the rules for filing and appeal and lowered their assessment by just over $110,000, saving them over $1,300 on their property tax bill.

The first thing the Thompson’s did correctly was to make sure they filed their Real Property Petition Form before the end of their 60 day appeal window. (The Real Property Petition Form is available on the King County Assessor’s website, or by calling 206-296-7300) All King County homeowners receive an assessment notice in the mail between April and September of each year. The mailings are intentionally staggered over the course of the summer and homeowners have 60 days from the date of their mailing notice to file a notice of intent to appeal their assessment. The Thompsons received their assessment notice in the mail on September 10th so they had to file their appeal by November 9th at the latest.

In their research, the Thompsons learned that in order to prove their case for a lower assessment to the Board of Equalization, they needed to present 3-5 comparables homes “comps” along with the Real Property Petition Form they downloaded from the assessor’s website. This meant finding nearby homes similar in square feet, lot size, bedrooms, bathrooms, etc, that sold for less than their home was assessed for. This was the Thompson’s first big hurdle; where were they going to get the comps?

Finding the correct comps is harder than you might think.

Many homeowners will start by typing their address into a service like Zillow to get a long list of about 40 comps and picking the ones that seem best at first glance. Unfortunately, this often leads to their comps being disqualified and their appeal case being unceremoniously thrown out.

Why? There are a number of reasons comps are disqualified during an appeal hearing. For starters, the King County Assessor evaluates your home’s value as of the January 1st assessment date each year by looking at comps that sold PRIOR to that assessment date. Therefore, in order to successfully appeal, the homeowner must also submit comps that sold PRIOR to the assessment date as well. Zillow’s data is constantly updated to attempt to determine a real time market value, so most of the comps you see displayed for your property sold AFTER January 1st, 2009 and would be disqualified by the assessor.

And that’s not all. Homeowners are not allowed to submit comps that sold as part of a foreclosure, short sale, inheritance or divorce transaction, donation to charity, or any other non arm’s length transaction. Yet all of these transactions are technically “sales” and show up in official records. Unfortunately if you look up comps on Zillow, many of these important details get lost.

As you can see there are some hurdles that homeowners have to deal with when appealing their property taxes. Finding the correct comps to use in a property tax appeal is difficult. Fortunately for the Thompsons, today there are online property tax appeal resources available to help homeowners select the correct comps that didn’t even exist as recently as 2008.

On August 27th, 2009 the King County Assessor mailed assessment notices for the following neighborhoods: Queen Anne, Western West Seattle, Rainier Beach, Broadview, Blue Ridge, and Shilshole. That means the sixty (60) day window for these neighborhoods closes on Monday October 26th, 2009. If you’re only a week or two late filing your Real Property Petition Form they’ll usually let it slide, but don’t push it. If you never received your assessment notice in the mail you can sign an affidavit saying you never received it and they’ll allow you to file your petition after the deadline.

Click below for the remaining upcoming appeal King County property tax appeal deadlines. [Read more →]

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Seattle-Area Foreclosures Appear to Resume Pre SB-5810 Rise

By The Tim on October 15th, 2009 at 6:00 AM · 65 Comments

Time for our September update on Foreclosure activity in King, Snohomish, and Pierce counties. First up, the Notice of Trustee Sale summary:

September 2009
King: 796 NTS, up 31% YOY
Snohomish: 421 NTS, up 42% YOY
Pierce: 479 NTS, down 11% YOY

Not surprisingly, as the newly-mandated 30-day pipeline begins to fill up, foreclosures seem to be resuming their upward trend across the Sound.

It’s interesting to note that as of the end of the day yesterday, Trustee Deeds (the actual repossession of a house at auction by a bank) in King County were on track to hit five or six hundred in October, well over a hundred higher than the previous high, set in July (and ten times the levels we were seeing in 2007). But we’re getting ahead of ourselves. For now let’s focus on this month.

Here’s a simple look at how September’s foreclosures compare to the same month last year in each of the three counties:

Notices of Trustee Sale

Next let’s look at the percentage of households that received a Notice of Trustee Sale (based on household data for each county from the American Community Survey, assuming linear household growth between surveys):

Households per Foreclosure

King County came in at 1 NTS per 990 households, Snohomish County had 1 NTS per 626 households, and Pierce had 1 NTS for every 622 households (higher is better).

According to foreclosure tracking company RealtyTrac, Washington’s statewide foreclosure rate of one foreclosure for every 264 households was 23rd worst among the 50 states and the District of Columbia (up from 30th last month as the short-term effects of SB 5810 begin to wear off). Note that RealtyTrac’s definition of “in foreclosure” is much broader than what we are using.

Following are the usual charts of King, Pierce, and Snohomish County foreclosures from January 2000 through September 2009. Click below to continue…

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Puget Sound Counties Interactive August Update

By The Tim on September 25th, 2009 at 6:00 AM · 5 Comments

The time has come for our regularly-scheduled late-month check on NWMLS statistics from around the sound. As usual, courtesy Tableau Software, the Around the Sound update is rocking exclusive interactive data visualizations.

Feel free to download the old charts in Excel 2007 and Excel 2003 format. To get specific info about a certain point on any graph in the post below, float your mouse pointer over the data.

Before we get to the cool stuff, here’s the usual table of YOY stats for each of our seven covered counties as of August 2009.

(Note: Keep in mind that certain NWMLS definitions were modified beginning July 2008 that affect the reported number of active listings and pending sales (and therefore the “months of supply”). The net result of this change is that active listings post 07/08 will appear lower, pending sales higher, and months of supply lower than prior to 07/08. See this post for more details.)

August 2009 King Snohomish Pierce Kitsap Thurston Island Skagit Whatcom
Median Price 11.5 11.8% 8.8% 12.5% 3.8% 5.3% 13.7% 0.5%
Listings 20.6% 25.9% 24.0% 27.4% 17.2% 5.0% 0.8% 10.5%
Closed Sales 5.0% 8.1% 5.2% 4.7% 12.2% 2.4% 7.1% 10.3%
Months of Supply 4.1 4.6 4.4 5.2 4.6 11.3 8.4 6.1

Hit the jump for this month’s interactive charts.

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