Around the Sound: Inventory up, sales down across the board

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It’s been a few months since we had a look at the stats in the broader Puget Sound area, so let’s update our charts through March. Here’s the latest update to our “Around the Sound” statistics for King, Snohomish, Pierce, Kitsap, Thurston, Island, Skagit, and Whatcom counties.

First up, a summary table:

March 2019 King Snohomish Pierce Kitsap Thurston Island Skagit Whatcom
Median Price $667,725 $500,000 $363,084 $359,200 $325,550 $370,000 $364,950 $373,450
Price YOY -3.2% +5.3% +3.8% +5.2% +8.2% +1.4% +4.7% +1.5%
New Listings 3,238 1,358 1,457 440 527 173 227 321
New Listings YOY +6.1% +6.1% -11.4% +14.6% -5.0% -10.8% +1.3% -3.3%
Active Inventory 3,277 1,209 1,404 418 448 279 332 479
Inventory YOY +94.3% +78.1% +10.6% +24.0% +0.7% +8.1% +17.7% +15.7%
Closed Sales 1,784 901 1,142 299 348 122 126 208
Sales YOY -5.3% -0.2% -12.3% -13.6% -12.8% -6.9% -17.6% -5.5%
Months of Supply 1.8 1.3 1.2 1.4 1.3 2.3 2.6 2.3

King County still has some of the most dramatic changes, as the only county with a drop in the median price and by far the biggest increase in active listings. That said, active listings are up and closed sales are down across the board. Skagit, Kitsap, Pierce, and Thurston all still saw double-digit year-over-year declines in sales.

Here’s a look at new listings across the region:

New Listings of Single-Family Homes

New listings were up the most in Kitsap County, which saw 15 percent more listing than a year earlier. Listings were also up in King, Snohomish, and Skagit, but fell in Pierce, Island, and Whatcom.

Next up: Active inventory.

Active Listings of Single-Family Homes

Inventory was up everywhere, but only just barely in Thurston, which saw an increase of less than one percent from a year earlier. Island was the second-smallest gain at eight percent. Every other county saw at least double-digit increases in inventory from March 2018.

Here’s the chart of median prices compared to a year ago.

Median Sale Price Single-Family Homes

Prices were up everywhere but King County, with the biggest gains in Thurston County, up eight percent.

Closed Sales of Single-Family Homes

Closed sales fell in every county, but only just barely in Snohomish. King and Whatcom counties were down five percent and Island fell seven percent. Every other county saw double-digit decreases in closed sales.

Months of Supply Single Family Homes

Every county is still deep in sellers’ market territory, but at least they’re all improving from a year ago.

If there is certain data you would like to see or ways you would like to see the data presented differently, drop a comment below and let me know.

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About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. Tim also hosts the weekly improv comedy sci-fi podcast Dispatches from the Multiverse.

50 comments:

  1. 1

    Data Showing Reset is a Good Article By the Tim

    The Seattle Bull RE Market Turning More Bear? This is MOM data so it may be not that ominous too or predictive unless we get a few more MOMs in sequence like March in the future. Keep up the tracking Tim, we’ll know more with time…

  2. 2

    Update on Landlord Rights Case, re: Seattle Area Motel 6 calling ICE to get rid of illegal alien tenants destroying the Unit in Gypsy Packs…

    http://fortune.com/2019/04/05/motel-6-guest-information-ice/

    The Washington State Courts are not on the landlord’s side folks, especially our AG. If I was a Seattle area landlord and illegal aliens wanted to rent my unit or I suspected it, I don’t know what I’d do now. If I turned them out, could I be sued too? Our foreign bent courts don’t represent us any more as landlords? I wonder how much of the $12M “relief” loot the Seattle Motel 6 illegal alien tenants grabbed up too, the article doesn’t say.

    Ya see why I hold a crucifix out to possible vampire tenants and choose never to be a landlord in Seattle. The risk is too great and the penalty is horrifying in Wash St.

  3. 3
    Troy Thiel says:

    Thanks for all you do…wish you’d do your heat map monthly too…that graph shows the true energy of the market!!!

  4. 4
    Eastsider says:

    The charts look great except for the months of supply chart. IMO it should not use 6-mo as a baseline. The reason is when we have 6 months of inventory <- imagine that, we will be in the middle of a full blown bubble burst! Also, showing 1.8m twice of .9m YOY is more beautiful LOL.

  5. 5
    Justme says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 4

    Agree. The dividing line for a sellers vs buyers market really is right around 1-month worth of active inventory. The 6-month criterion is just old REIC propaganda that had not been debunked until the last 2-3 years.

    As of March, buyers bought the same amount of housing as last year, but the inventory was over 2X higher in King County. So the number of transactions were not limited by availability at all, but rather by buyers refusing to pay the demanded price: Buyers are on strike, and the strike is highly effective. The more buyers on strike, the lower housing prices will go. The coming recession will amplify the effect.

  6. 6

    RE: Justme @ 5

    Six months is too long but one month is too short. Just ask any buyer who is looking for a good house. One month is just the wastecan. You need three months to have real options that includes more than just the trash.

  7. 7
    Matt P says:

    Going to have to agree with Ardell at least in the case of Seattle right now. In other markets it may be different. Now that we are approaching 2 months, there are finally some options for what I want, but most still go fast. At 3 months, I would call it a full on Buyer’s market. Right now it is balanced.

  8. 8
    pat weber says:

    Does anyone track total house sales data? It’d say a lot to know that say median price is down but total sales per month is up etc.

    I guess one could determine that by: median price * houses sold = total sales revenue. I could probably hobble that together myself but if someone already has!…

    My thinking is this would give an idea of how much money is changing hands any month/ year, and theoretically how much revenue the industry is pulling in (at least when looking at everything except new home sales).

    I’ve got to imagine someone tracks this and I haven’t thought to give it any attention.

    Thanks for any info!!

  9. 9
    Justme says:

    RE: Matt P @ 7
    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 6

    Prices cures any shortcoming. It’s not trash, it is just overpriced. Sellers: reduce the price and it will sell at some point. Buyers: just say no. Very simple.

  10. 10
    uwp says:

    RE: Justme @ 9
    Hi Justme!

    Maybe you missed this from the previous post, but I was wondering if you had a different estimate of Seattle population. Since the WA State OFM and Census are clearly tools of the REIC, I was hopeful that you have your own data you could share with us that disputes that Seattle has been one of the fastest growing big cities in the US.

    Thanks!

  11. 11

    RE: Justme @ 9

    Yeah…my people want the good stuff. Not the 1 month trash at a discount. One Month of inventory may be good enough for you…but seriously…it’s not enough.

  12. 12
    whatsmyname says:

    By Justme @ 5:

    RE: Eastsider @ 4

    As of March, buyers bought the same amount of housing as last year, but the inventory was over 2X higher in King County. So the number of transactions were not limited by availability at all, but rather by buyers refusing to pay the demanded price: Buyers are on strike, and the strike is highly effective. The more buyers on strike, the lower housing prices will go. The coming recession will amplify the effect.

    Look at Tim’s last post. Pendings just took about the biggest increase of any month in the 20 years that he tracks. Closed sales were about equal to the previous month’s pendings, so it’s not like there’s an obvious problem with closings. Not a hot market I hear, but a buyer’s strike? With 2800 strike-breakers?

  13. 13
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 11 – It depends. One month of inventory can mean 100 listings / 100 closings or 1000 listing / 1000 closings. I would say the latter is a far healthier and stronger market than the former.

  14. 14
    Eastsider says:

    By whatsmyname @ 12:

    Look at Tim’s last post. Pendings just took about the biggest increase of any month in the 20 years that he tracks. Closed sales were about equal to the previous month’s pendings, so it’s not like there’s an obvious problem with closings. Not a hot market I hear, but a buyer’s strike? With 2800 strike-breakers?

    Hahaha you are working too hard. February pending sales were uncharacteristically down MOM due to snowstorms. So a huge jump in March should be expected.

    Now take off your rose colored glasses and see the real picture –

    Active YOY +94.3%
    Price YOY -3.2%
    New Listings YOY +6.1%
    Mortgage rates 4.51% (2018) vs 4.21% (2019)

  15. 15
    whatsmyname says:

    By Eastsider @ 14:

    By whatsmyname @ 12:

    Look at Tim’s last post. Pendings just took about the biggest increase of any month in the 20 years that he tracks. Closed sales were about equal to the previous month’s pendings, so it’s not like there’s an obvious problem with closings. Not a hot market I hear, but a buyer’s strike? With 2800 strike-breakers?

    Hahaha you are working too hard. February pending sales were uncharacteristically down MOM due to snowstorms. So a huge jump in March should be expected.

    Now take off your rose colored glasses and see the real picture –

    Active YOY +94.3%
    Price YOY -3.2%
    New Listings YOY +6.1%
    Mortgage rates 4.51% (2018) vs 4.21% (2019)

    Even with the snowstorms, February pendings were just slightly shy of Feb 2018 pendings. Should they have been higher than 2018? Is that the kind of buyer’s strike you are thinking of? February median prices were the highest they’ve ever been for a February, and closed sales were higher than 2015, 2016, 2017, and 2018. Perhaps compared to that, March is a good looking buyer’s strike?

    Believe me, this is not hard work.

  16. 16
    ARDELL says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 13

    If people wanted to live anywhere in King County. But they don’t. Per market 30 days of inventory is not enough to call it a balanced market. I’ll give you 3 months vs 6 months. But not one month.

  17. 17
    Justme says:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 15

    >>Even with the snowstorms, February pendings were just slightly shy of Feb 2018 pendings. Should they have been higher than 2018? Is that the kind of buyer’s strike you are thinking of?

    More than twice the inventory in KC, and less sales. Yes, buyer strike.

    >>February median prices were the highest they’ve ever been for a February,

    Uh, hello, now you are ignoring the Feb 2019 eastside/northside domination of the sold product mix AND median again. You have been told this before, but that does not deter you from spreading propaganda.

    (Thanks, Eastsider :))

  18. 18
    Eastsider says:

    By whatsmyname @ 15:

    Even with the snowstorms, February pendings were just slightly shy of Feb 2018 pendings. Should they have been higher than 2018? Is that the kind of buyer’s strike you are thinking of? February median prices were the highest they’ve ever been for a February, and closed sales were higher than 2015, 2016, 2017, and 2018. Perhaps compared to that, March is a good looking buyer’s strike?

    Believe me, this is not hard work.

    If February numbers were so great (highest prices ever!), what happened in March? Haha!

    I don’t care if there is a strike.

  19. 19
    whatsmyname says:

    By Justme @ 17:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 15

    >>Even with the snowstorms, February pendings were just slightly shy of Feb 2018 pendings. Should they have been higher than 2018? Is that the kind of buyer’s strike you are thinking of?

    More than twice the inventory in KC, and less sales. Yes, buyer strike.

    A strike is a measure of activity, or lack thereof. An increase in listings does not create a magical duty for higher numbers of people to become buyers. At 2800+ pendings, there is a good level of activity, – I think 6th highest for a March in 20 years.

    >>February median prices were the highest they’ve ever been for a February,

    Uh, hello, now you are ignoring the Feb 2019 eastside/northside domination of the sold product mix AND median again. You have been told this before, but that does not deter you from spreading propaganda.

    Median means half sold for more; half sold for less. The fact that people were spending their (more) money in the north and east, instead of in the usually cheaper south does not mean that people were not spending the amount of money that they were spending. This can’t be that hard, can it?

  20. 20
    whatsmyname says:

    By Eastsider @ 18:

    If February numbers were so great (highest prices ever!), what happened in March? Haha!

    I don’t care if there is a strike.

    The numbers are just support for my point that this isn’t much of a strike. If you don’t care about that, it seems we’re good. Of course, if my numbers are wrong, you should point that out.

  21. 21
    Erik says:

    RE: Troy Thiel @ 3
    Check out the Seattle Times, they do heat maps. I must admit a good heat map is fun to play with. Tim brings a different perspective, which in my opinion is more honest.

  22. 22
    Eastsider says:

    By whatsmyname @ 20:

    Of course, if my numbers are wrong, you should point that out.

    “Pendings just took about the biggest increase of any month in the 20 years that he tracks.” <- This is clearly taken out of context. If you consider the other facts (Active YOY +94.3%, Price YOY -3.2%, New Listings YOY +6.1%, lower mortgage rates, snowstorms), it is not a big deal as you made it out to be.

  23. 23
  24. 24

    RE: Justme @ 5
    Recession?

    I don’t anticipate interest rate increases on mortgage loans for 2019, but recession? The YOY American stock growth is adequate [its foreign stock that’s riskier right now] and so are wages [up 3% in 2018], unemployment way down, even U6. Even though the savings interest in like 401Ks long-term CDs are like 32% higher than a year ago. Its still too low to lock up money that way IMO, so its good to convert it to $CASH$ for instant access instead, especially “lucky devil” $CASH$ repo opportunities you can find…looks like 25% EU Tariffs on Airbus’ unfair subsidies competition announced by Trump today [this decision has nothing to do with the MAX 8 never ending “grounding” conundrum? LOL].

    My retirement fixed income had 3-30% increases depending on whether you want to add in the 2-3%/yr on my equivalent 401K retirement balance to date as 2018 interest income too [I do]…this is why you must accumulate retirement income ASAP, the house is a good retainer for money too, but its a locked box with capital gains taxes too…bank accounts are like reverse mortgages without their inspection codes adding unnecessary house maintenance inspections [yearly?] to prevent reverse mortgage contract defaults…I own my home free and clear, and would never consider a reverse mortgage.

    But even 2nd mortgages dry up too if banks smell risk…

    Recession is unlikely in my book.

  25. 25
    Sam says:

    Does anyone have stats on how many new homes are coming into the market. I see that there are many new homes, and which is what the reason the inventory is pretty much up at least on east side this year over last year. Existing homes are still rare and some of them still getting bids if the price of home is correctly marketed.

  26. 26
    Matt P says:

    What is up with all of these 2 bedroom townhouses with 1 room on the first floor and one on the third? How do they expect you to start a family and leave a little one 2 floors down or up? If not for that, we probably would have purchased a while ago.

  27. 27

    RE: uwp @ 10
    Great Question

    Ya forced me to check it out:

    “Source: Office of Financial Management

    From April 2017 to April 2018, according to the OFM, Seattle’s population boom reversed course and fell to 2.3% annual growth, a 40% drop in growth rate from the prior survey. It’s this difference from the previous survey–translating to about 11,000 fewer people–that best explains the flattening rents in Seattle.”

    https://www.theurbanist.org/2018/07/02/what-the-2018-population-estimate-tells-us-about-flattening-rents-in-seattle/

    You are right from this data ;-) Seattle could likely be losing people buts its not on the news…you get the news scoop of the week!

  28. 28

    Robots at Walmart Now?

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/walmart-is-rolling-out-the-robots-11554782460

    Yes shelving and stock organizing is best automated…floor cleaning too evidently. Robots attack the low skilled high tolerance jobs first….that means the immigration attorneys can be replaced by puppet robots first, since they just make up the loose high tolerance”anything goes” laws anyway….LOL

  29. 29

    RE: Matt P @ 26
    That’s Exactly Why I Bought a Rambler Design Modular

    I had a severely disabled child to care for and it was too dangerous to have windows to fall from too, let alone watching him on several floors too..the HOA gated community reduces risks from traffic too..

  30. 30

    RE: Sam @ 25
    There’s New $600K+ Homes Going up in Kent

    Many to pick and choose from too…they’re all large sized with small lots energy pigs though and may have high cathedral ceilings for heat waste. Don’t expect a VA or FHA type loan though, try conventional with 5-20% down with higher interest rates.

  31. 31
    Realistic says:

    By randomseattledummie @ 23:

    https://www.geekwire.com/2019/dropbox-tripling-size-seattle-engineering-outpost-office-lease-new-downtown-skyscraper/

    More bad news for Seattle real estate, right Justme?

    “When ready in the fourth quarter of next year (…)”
    “(…) the new office could hold roughly 600 to 800 employees. The current office holds about 200 to 250 people”.

    I don’t think that’s going to make much of a difference.

  32. 32

    RE: Sam @ 25

    “Existing homes are still rare…” What did you mean by that?

    There is a major system change coming on today, so I am watching to see if that creates a void followed by a more than usual posting of new listings. The new system provides a full search of all properties and not just listed properties without having to exit and come back in through the County database separate search program. They are being integrated with today previously announced as the change day. Nothing showing up yet so maybe overnight tonight.

    Did you mean “existing” as in already on market? “Existing” as in resale and not new homes?

    I might be able to answer that if I knew what you meant by “existing homes are still rare…”.

  33. 33
  34. 34
    ess says:

    By randomseattledummie @ 23:

    https://www.geekwire.com/2019/dropbox-tripling-size-seattle-engineering-outpost-office-lease-new-downtown-skyscraper/

    More bad news for Seattle real estate, right Justme?

    Good news for local economy – even though there are going to be “only” 600 more higly paid employees coming to Seattle, increased employment by one industry creates other jobs in the area.

    More importantly – the company stated that they were pleased with the quality of staff they were able to retain in Seattle. Other companies will note the positive experience dropbox has experienced. An increase of a few hundred jobs here, a few hundred there, and a few hundred over there – and suddenly you are talking about real growth (to paraphrase Everett Dirkesen). After all – Amazon was started in a garage but a few years ago!

    Good vibes and good news for local real estate.

  35. 35
    Sam says:

    Ardell DellaLoggia @32

    “Existing homes are still rare…” What did you mean by that?
    I am referring to the homes that are resale, not newly constructed homes. I see a lot of newly constructed homes on the market which is why the inventory is shooting up. But the resale of older homes inventory is still lower and still bidding happening on those.

    Example: listed for 550K, sold for 590K. (ofcourse reduced from 600k) but still lot of bidding.
    https://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/2414-1st-Ave-98121/unit-317/home/18737

    More homes are just going off the market sooner for resale of old homes as the newly constructed properties are priced higher.

  36. 36
    Deerhawke says:

    By randomseattledummie @ 23:

    https://www.geekwire.com/2019/dropbox-tripling-size-seattle-engineering-outpost-office-lease-new-downtown-skyscraper/

    More bad news for Seattle real estate, right Justme?

    Interesting story. Seattle may lose some Amazon folks to Bellevue, but we pick up Dropbox and Expedia. Overall the story is not just the growth of the tech sector here but the diversification of the tech sector.

  37. 37
    whatsmyname says:

    By Eastsider @ 22:

    “Pendings just took about the biggest increase of any month in the 20 years that he tracks.” <- This is clearly taken out of context. If you consider the other facts (Active YOY +94.3%, Price YOY -3.2%, New Listings YOY +6.1%, lower mortgage rates, snowstorms), it is not a big deal as you made it out to be.

    Repectfully, I have to disagree. When it comes to a buyers strike, nothing is more contextual than the most recent buyer activity, and the best number we have for that is the sales pending. I do agree that the snowstorms warrant some consideration. But we have the info, so let’s take a look at the damage.

    February closed sales were actually up YOY. Pendings were down, but only 5.5%. In March, they made up that deficit from 2018, but then added another 5.1% surplus. If you were to “transfer” enough March pendings back to February to make March look bad, you would make February look extremely good – and blow up the rationale of a buyer’s strike before we even get to March.

    Inventory growth does carry forward the residual of 2018 decreases from unusually high sale levels at the end of the prior 2 years, but late 2018 is actually closer to the mean. Let’s look at the YOY increases – as you state, 93.4% in March, but that’s from 109.7% in February; 126.9% in January; 143.0% in December. Trend? More likely a good illustration of how smaller numbers foster bigger percentages; but also more likely a fixed step toward a better inventory base level, and not seriously compounding growth.

    Not that there aren’t a few determined “strikers” out there; just no noticeable strike.

  38. 38
    JustNoise says:

    Should the length of time properties are sitting on the market be considered in this “buyer’s strike” equation? That has also doubled.

  39. 39

    RE: Sam @ 35

    Thank you. Yes, over the almost 30 years I have been helping people buy and sell homes I’d say 98% were “existing” homes. Make that 99% as even the new homes were sometimes already built and “spec”.

    I think we saw a lot more new home listings flooding the stats and altering the stats because they were listing presale homes and often they were not following the old rules of ONLY show ONE of the model for all presale and not every presale house.

    There are so many changed policies that alter the stats that it is harder to read them, but then agents never used inventory stats to know where the market is or isn’t. There could be just as many presale homes as before when each one wasn’t assigned a “new listing” number when not built.

    As to you question, traditionally the peak is around Mother’s Day or the week after. This for a couple of reasons. People like to show their property when the pretty flowers are blooming. A buyer’s lender will only allow a 60 day rent back by the seller in order to do a lower interest rate vs investor rate loan.

    So count back from end of school year 60 days from a closing and we are likely just entering the beginning of “existing” home inventory in the best school areas with peak being more like Mother’s Day.

    Of course existing homes go on when people die and people can die anytime. But usually the best of schools boundary areas run on a “school cycle”. Not one wants to have to leave the last two weeks of school.

  40. 40

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 39

    Sorry for the typos. Didn’t get an “edit” option when it posted and am a little “off” today due to the death of a little baby in the family. I wasn’t concentrating, but hopefully that answers your question well enough for now.

  41. 41
    MaybeBuyer says:

    Has anyone noticed that bidding wars are back? I am in Snohomish County at the sub $600k tier so I can’t speak for Seattle but I have seen the same formula a lot this month. Price it low, put an offer review date out 6 days, hold a couple open houses, and sell it for last year’s prices. The buyers just can’t sit it out. I’ll have to ask around and see if people are waiving contingencies again. It still feels like there are more tailwinds than headwinds for the RE market.

  42. 42
    Justme says:

    RE: JustNoise @ 38

    >>Should the length of time properties are sitting on the market be considered in this “buyer’s strike” equation? That has also doubled.

    That’s logic, man. Bubble-mongers do not care about logic.

    (nice name, by the way :))

  43. 43
    Erik says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 40
    I’m sorry for your loss Ardell.

  44. 44
    ess says:

    By Deerhawke @ 36:

    By randomseattledummie @ 23:

    https://www.geekwire.com/2019/dropbox-tripling-size-seattle-engineering-outpost-office-lease-new-downtown-skyscraper/

    More bad news for Seattle real estate, right Justme?

    Interesting story. Seattle may lose some Amazon folks to Bellevue, but we pick up Dropbox and Expedia. Overall the story is not just the growth of the tech sector here but the diversification of the tech sector.

    Follow up on diversification of the Seattle tech sector and its impact on real estate.

    https://www.geekwire.com/2019/bay-area-tech-ipo-boom-create-ripple-effect-seattles-housing-market/

  45. 45
    N says:

    https://therealdeal.com/2019/04/09/house-flipping-rates-have-hit-pre-crisis-levels-but-its-a-very-different-market-these-days/

    CoreLogic found that 10.6 percent of U.S. home sales in the fourth quarter of 2018 were flips, having been owned for less than two years, close to the 2006 house flip rate of 11.3 percent.

    At the same time, the median profit for flips today is more than twice what it was twelve years ago, which gives sellers more of a cushion in case of a market downturn. Accounting for overall home price increases, flippers made nearly 23 percent in profit on flips in the fourth quarter. In 2006, that number was just 6 percent.

    The market has also become more institutionalized, with corporate sellers making up more than 40 percent of flippers today, the highest rate on record. Companies like Opendoor and units of Zillow and Redfin are all getting into the house flipping game, helping to reduce hassle for sellers.

  46. 46
    Market Psychologist says:

    RE: N @ 43 – What could possibly go wrong?!

  47. 47
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: ess @ 44
    RE: Market Psychologist @ 46

    Maybe this is true for the national market, but I am not sure if this is really true for the Seattle market. The rehab and flip game really only works out :

    1) when the market is clearly on an upward trend
    2) when it is not difficult or time-consuming to get permits
    3) you have one partner who is an experienced general who has fast, experienced crews that work well together
    4) you have one partner who can act as project finder (front end) and listing agent (back end)
    5) you don’t run into any unexpected time delays, because
    7) this is mainly financed with hard money

    So maybe OpenDoor, Zillow and Redfin could have some other advantages, but I don’t see them really being successful in this market. It requires too much knowledge of too many things.

    The teams that do this over and over are competent, fast and focused. It is not an occupation for the indecisive or the faint of heart. I have seen plenty of small entrepreneurs try it once, but they don’t come back for #2 or #3. It is more of a one-off, not a business.

    And nobody these days is getting permits quickly. If you are fast, it takes you 120 days for survey and permit preparation with design and engineering. Add 30 days for an intake appointment. Then 90-120 days for a substantial remodel permit. And that gets you to the beginning of the actual work for your project. But meanwhile you have been paying interest at 12% on the property and on permitting costs.

  48. 48
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 47 – Agreed. The current market conditions are especially risky for rehab/flip. If the market turns sour in the next year or two, the flippers/builders will be hurt badly.

  49. 49
    Don says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 47

    Plenty of time for the market to change right under your feet by the time construction concludes.

  50. 50
    S-Crow says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 48 – already occuring .

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