Around the Sound: Still a dismal market for buyers everywhere

Get access to the full spreadsheets used to make the charts in this and other posts, and support the ongoing work on this site by becoming a member of Seattle Bubble.

Let’s take a look at our stats for the local regions outside of the King/Snohomish core. Here’s your October update to our “Around the Sound” statistics for Pierce, Kitsap, Thurston, Island, Skagit, and Whatcom counties.

Things are looking pretty similar all around the Puget Sound region—extremely low supply, high demand, and skyrocketing prices. The one tiny bright spot for buyers is that new listings are higher than they were a year ago in every county.

First up, a summary table:

October 2020 King Snohomish Pierce Kitsap Thurston Island Skagit Whatcom
Median Price $745,000 $579,972 $430,000 $437,000 $395,000 $449,000 $441,500 $474,450
Price YOY 12.9% 17.2% 17.8% 13.2% 13.4% 24.7% 17.6% 13.2%
New Listings 2,986 1,309 1,512 472 492 173 197 320
New Listings YOY 29.7% 20.6% 23.1% 27.9% 21.8% 29.1% 4.2% 4.9%
Active Listings 2,258 652 881 280 217 122 188 323
Active YOY -37.6% -59.2% -46.6% -42.5% -54.4% -60.3% -44.9% -51.4%
Pending Sales 3,007 1,403 1,658 524 549 182 219 331
Pending YOY 16.0% 12.4% 11.2% 10.3% 11.8% 16.7% -0.5% 2.2%
Closed Sales 3,027 1,438 1,520 527 522 179 232 344
Closed YOY 36.0% 36.0% 18.0% 28.9% 15.0% 32.6% 22.1% 19.0%
Months of Supply 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.9

Median home prices were up in every single county from a year earlier. King County’s 13 percent increase was actually the smallest around the sound, while the largest price gains were in Island County.

Median Sale Price Single-Family Homes

Year-Over-Year Change in Median Sale Price Single-Family Homes

Here’s the one sort-of bright spot for buyers: New listings are on the rise, especially in King County.

New Listings of Single-Family Homes

However, active listings are down dramatically from a year ago in every county. The biggest decline was in Island County (probably no surprise then that prices are up the most there), where listings fell by 60 percent from a year earlier. King County saw the smallest drop, but was still down 38 percent.

Active Listings of Single-Family Homes

Closed sales were up across the board in every single county. The biggest gains were in King and Snohomish Counties, which both saw closed sales increase 36 percent from a year ago. Pierce and Thurston had the smallest gains at 18 percent and 15 percent, respectively.

Closed Sales of Single-Family Homes

Months of supply is just absolutely abysmal for buyers everywhere. Every single county less than one month of supply in October.

Months of Supply Single Family Homes

In summary: It’s still a pretty terrible time to be a home buyer, across the entire Greater Seattle Area.

If there is certain data you would like to see or ways you would like to see the data presented differently, drop a comment below and let me know.

5.00 avg. rating (97% score) - 6 votes

About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. Tim also hosts the weekly improv comedy sci-fi podcast Dispatches from the Multiverse.

932 comments:

  1. 751
    Erik says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 750
    I’m pleasantly surprised Eastsider. You believe all the lies that employers tell employees to keep them poor such as “investing a portion of your earnings into a we diversified 401k until you get to old to do your job so you can retire.” Yet it appears you are not drinking the Covid Koolaide pushed by the DNC, so good on you for that. Take this moment to think critially how the system tells people to invest in well diversified index funds, and tell me that’s not a scam too. The truth is that real estate investors get rich and 401k investors stay poor and try to not die before their savings run out. Think about it, you got scammed. That’s why you are working until your 50’s or 60’s, you got suckered.

    If I have to work in my 50’s, i’ll consider myself someone that failed to understand economics. I’m pretty sure i’ll be retired way before i’m 50, but we’ll see.

  2. 752
    don says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 750

    EUA is approval for these extreme conditions we are in.

    FDA stands ready to review investigative new drug applications [IND] for any manufacturer to submit.
    The agency does not “sponsor” any drug trial, that is done by applicants. If so much promise is contained in invermectin, why hasn’t a big pharma bought the rights and submitted for the IND?

    Most health insurers in Wa. have waived copays for the vax. https://www.insurance.wa.gov/news/health-insurers-waive-copays-and-deductibles-covid-19-vaccines.

  3. 753
    Eastsider says:

    RE: don @ 752
    Ivermectin is a cheaply produced drug. Why would any pharma sponsor an expensive trial? Why is CDC not sponsoring one?

    EUA does not mean it is safe. For everyone considering these vaccines, it is a simple risk/reward calculation.

    Here is from the public vaccine safety database. Try the following input –
    3. Vaccine Information: Vaccine Types (Diseases): COVID-19 (COVID19)
    4. Event Characteristics: Died? Yes
    6. Dates: Vacci­nation date: 2020 November – 2021 Entire Year
    Click the Find buttom.
    Result: 625 Covid vaccine deaths

    Change 3) above to Influenza (FLU(H1N1), FLU3, FLU4, …)
    Result: 5 flu vaccine deaths

    In addition, adverse side effects are countless. I doubt any existing FDA approved vaccine has such a dismal safety record. And we don’t even know anything about much feared ADE potential in all of these Covid vaccines due to the compressed timeframe. (I pray it will not happen and I am not even religious.)

    Again, it depends on your comfort level.

    https://medalerts.org/vaersdb/index.php

  4. 754
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Erik @ 751 – I’m not against RE (or TSLA, GME, BTC, GLD) investment. But IMO RE is a lousy investment at these prices. For shelter, yes because 30 years will fix any short term (timing) errors.

    If you search through my past comments, I was RE positive/neutral prior to 2016, I think.

  5. 755
    don says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 753

    Yes, I agree that it depends on your comfort level. I hope for your sake and others relying on invermectin that it prevents the disease. Leaving doses of vaccine for others is a generous move, I will grant you. CDC does not run trials, AFAIK, do you think they should, and if so, why?

    “…Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said that as of Feb. 7, there were 1,170 reported deaths among people who received either the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine or another from Moderna Inc., a rate of 0.003%, and no evidence suggests a link.”

    From: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-18/what-to-know-about-vaccine-related-deaths-allergies-quicktake

    485000 gone in the US as of today.

  6. 756
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 753
    P.s. To add to my point about public disinformation (Google, MSM, CDC), HCQ has a much safer record over 50 years than the current Covid vaccines. Yet we have been bombarded with the ‘danger’ of HCQ (now Ivermectin too.) OTOH, there has been concerted effort in downplaying Covid vaccine danger.

  7. 757
    Erik says:

    I heard people in mortgage forbearance are going to be given an additional 3 months beyond the 12 months they have already been given. Stick this out folks, i’ve seen this before. The best terms will go to the people that ride forbearance to the end as they are seen as highest risk to our fragile economy. You could end up with 24 months of forbearance and then a super low mortgage rate as a special Covid discount if you push it to the end. If you add up the money saved on paying mortgage plus the lower rate, that should make any landlord successful on that property.

  8. 758
    Eastsider says:

    RE: don @ 755 – There is nothing wrong waiting for formal FDA approval. Until then, you should be aware that these are not clinically “proven” vaccines (just as Ivermectin is not yet a clinically “proven” treatment) and you are responsible for your own risk/reward analysis.

  9. 759
    don says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 758
    Yes, good luck to you , too.

  10. 760
    Eastsider says:

    By don @ 755:

    I hope for your sake and others relying on invermectin that it prevents the disease. Leaving doses of vaccine for others is a generous move, I will grant you.

    Look at it this way. You are now enrolled in Phase 3/4 trials of the vaccines. Phase 3 typically takes 1-4 years to complete. That is very kind of you to volunteer for public good.

    THE FOUR PHASES OF CLINICAL TRIALS
    https://www.pfizer.com/science/clinical-trials/guide-to-clinical-trials/phases

  11. 761
    chip&dip says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 758 – Agreed. This is a mass test. Both for a rushed new RNA vaccine, and a society test. May never need to test medicine again. If we line up to be tested on, we are setting a precedent. At this time, 1 out of 3 American are saying no thanks. You can be first in line before me.

  12. 762
    Erik says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 754
    And i’ll tell you what I told Justme and Sfrz for years, you are wrong. The reason you are wrong is because real estate investors get bailed out every economic disaster. Look at Wuhan virus, landlords have not had to pay their mortgages for 15 months. Anyone that owns a business gets PPP loans which are really grants. Landlords got bailed out from this recent Wuhan virus crash and there’s probably more money coming.

    During the great recession, landlords got bailed out too. Landlords could foreclose and not pay their mortgages for 5-7 years while collecting rent. When the landlord finally got the house taken from him or her, they got a cash payment on top of all the years of mortgage free rental income. I’m telling you, join the real estate investment party. It’s unfair to people that do not invest in real estate because glutinous landlord pigs get bailed out first every time. It’s an unfair system and if you want the advantages, you gotta invest in real estate or own a business in America. Also tax wise, the one of the best ways to take profit on an investment is rent from paid off houses. Values will continue to go up over time while you pay very little tax.

  13. 763
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Erik @ 762
    I invest based on risk/return. I don’t count on being bailed out. Many speculators like yourself lost homes in the last housing crash. Many will in the next one too. RE is a decent investment over long term but it is not doing better than stocks which take a lot less effort, at least in the last 30 years. An investment that does not cash flow is not sustainable, even if you get govt bailout. Don’t count your luck.

    P.s. There are many people today with 7 figure 401k/IRA retirement funds. A well funded retirement is totally doable without RE investment.

  14. 764
    S-Crow says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 763RE: Eastsider @ 763RE: Eastsider @ 763 – Completely agree.

    I keep getting flyers for just sold multi family and almost always the Cap rates are under 5%. Under 5%. Either these investors just want to park money in a barely break even investments or they just want a hard asset for other reasons. There is no way I’m paying these Bubble prices for 4.75% CAP RATE. No way. I mean this brokerage is marketing these like it is some kind of amazing return. Does anyone do math or do they want to just get to say I own a $mil in real estate.

  15. 765
    Erik says:

    RE: S-Crow @ 764
    Is it a 4-plex or smaller? If so, maybe the buyers plan to buy and go straight into mortgage forbearance for 15 months? That would turn a bad deal into a good deal for an investor.

    I’m not saying anything about what’s ethical or not. What I’m saying is that if the borrower could pull out $100k from mortgage forbearance, they could hold negative cash flow for 5 years or more and refinance when the unit goes up in value. That would make total to financial to sense to me.

  16. 766
    chip&dip says:

    RE: S-Crow @ 764 – Whew. What a breath of fresh sanity in this asylum. Thank you.

  17. 767

    RE: Erik @ 765

    People generally make the most money on the lowest cap rate purchase. Low cap rate means the land appreciates more than most. High cap rate means the land is dirt cheap and likely will stay dirt cheap. If you subtract the value of the land and then calculate the cap rate…it’s crazy high.

    It’s basically a land play with an income component. Not saying at today’s prices necessarily but generally speaking and for decades the lowest cap rate is in the area with the highest gain on the land value. Slumlords have a high cap rate. :)

    If you want the highest income return, be a loan shark. Real Estate is mostly about the value growth.

  18. 768
    Erik says:

    RE: ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 767
    Totally. I had a comment I made and erased that was talking about how real estate is all about appreciation, but I erased it. In single family and condos, people don’t talk cap rate, but it’s the same thing. A house or condo that will likely appreciate gets more negative cash flow on rent. Likewise, a multi-family with a lower cap rate is likely to appreciate more. Makes sense to me. Real estate people speculate, you’d be a fool not to.

    I was thinking long and hard about buying an apartment complex in Cleveland Ohio, where my wife is from, and just living off the cashflow and trying to figure out how to raise rents so I could sell it for a big profit eventually. It’s kind of a fun idea, but I was too scared to pull the trigger on it. Anyway, in Cleveland, you can get 12% cap rates, but like you said, the value is probably not going to go up. And renters are more of a pain with high Cap Rate properties.

  19. 769
    Eastsider says:

    RE: ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 767 – 10 years ago you could actually buy investment properties at profitable cap rates. Today, the only play is in asset appreciation which may or may not turn out. In the meanwhile, the RE “investment” is bleeding cash…

  20. 770

    Hey Interesting Mix of Comments All

    The ice is melting in Seattle today…there is hope. My biggest worry today is the “CLOSED SCHOOLS” in Seattle destroying our children’s futures….mismanaged vaccine application with misinformation and politics clouding the solutions…PANDEMICS suck. Politics is making it FAR worse now.

  21. 771
    ruxpert says:

    RE: Erik @ 743

    Hi Erik,
    Yes, there is way too much corruption.
    There will always be corruption, but to the level it has been allowed currently may shock even the most durable & hardened when consequences finally come home to roost.
    Thanks for the “The Fourth Turning” book tip.

    How COVID-19 ‘Vaccines’ May Destroy the Lives of Millions
    https://articles.mercola.com/sites/articles/archive/2021/02/14/covid-19-vaccine-gene-therapy.aspx

    Silent Epidemic; The Untold Story of Vaccines Movie dire
    in the year, 2013
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K1m3TjokVU4

  22. 772
  23. 773
    ruxpert says:

    (A Positive House Market Outlook & Pro Vaccine)
    The last stand for forbearance housing market crash bros?
    Is there any hope for them with the recent job numbers?
    February 8, 2021 – By Logan Mohtashami
    https://www.housingwire.com/articles/is-this-the-last-stand-for-forbearance-home-price-crash-bros/
    —-

    but if the Plandemic is a planned takedown, and Vaccines more poison from the corruption … ?

  24. 774

    RE: ruxpert @ 773
    LOL Ruxpert

    Today’s reset is yesterday’s mistake….too much political clouding delaying death counts to a higher level, so we switch party affiliation over vaccine distribution mismanagement . Killer Flu is not an excuse to cause MASS DEATHS. Period. Its now the other party’s Killer Flu now.

  25. 775
  26. 776
    ruxpert says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 774

    LOL Softwarengineer: The difference of parties within The DemoRub Trap!

    Continuing massive looting / corruption requires the delusion of divisive-distraction of course!
    Supporting / Opposing respective parties, keeps the pistons churning securing the DemoRub corruption rap.
    If you insist to differentiate, think factions of corruption, yet still corruption consumed / consuming.
    The entropy of such will continue to wreak ITs havoc due to the complicit cover-up by the duped.
    LOL ;-)

  27. 777
    S-Crow says:

    Many people are buying real estate Euphorically, as if the social economic problem and fallout from Covid 19 policy failures is fantasy. I don’t know how the market can work around the mass delinquencies for both renters and Landlords. It is so enormous I almost can’t comprehend it. I do know that if Biden/Harris and policy makers are late on this all hell is going to break loose and I think it will come down to playing triage: who or what is most important to save? Real Estate? Wall Street? Main street? And now we have dysfunction in the Energy Markets due to record cold and power outages in TX and other states causing insane price action over the last few days.

    The first thing Mrs S-Crow and I did literally every morning before we opened for work in the escrow biz was look each other in the eye and remark “what will the day bring us? !” Likewise, what will the market bring us tomorrow morning?

  28. 778
    wreckingbull says:

    RE: S-Crow @ 777 – Corporate debt, negative cash flow investing, stupid equity valuations, crypto bubbles, energy, and more.

    We are in for a wallop. BTW, glad to see you back here, as it’s nice to get some coherent posts once in a while.

    https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https://g.foolcdn.com/editorial/images/607139/car-market-cap-chart.png&w=2000&op=resize

    Oh…but that’s not enough.

    https://archive.vn/6tuQ0

  29. 779
    Blurtman says:

    10 year UST now at 1.265%. 30 year at 2.07%.

    What can the bond auction be indicating? Hmmm….

  30. 780
    formerSeattleite says:

    https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/16/the-only-reason-to-be-bearish-is-theres-no-reason-to-be-bearish-bank-of-america-says.html

    ““The only reason to be bearish is … there is no reason to be bearish,” Bank of America chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett told clients.”

    “Fund managers’ allocation to cash is down to 3.8%, the lowest since March 2013, just before the “taper tantrum” era under former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke. Allocations to stocks and commodities are the highest since February 2011.”

    https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/16/feds-bullard-doesnt-see-asset-bubble-and-doubts-policy-will-tighten-soon.html

    :St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said market prices aren’t showing evidence of a bubble, though he noted stocks are “highly valued.””

    “But asked if he thinks the Fed should start tapering the pace of its asset purchases, Bullard said, “Not really. I think we’re in good shape for today. Why don’t we just wait and see if the scenario I just described actually plays out.”

    Bullard added that he’s not concerned about the surge in bitcoin pricing – past $50,000 Tuesday morning – and said it is unlikely to impact Fed policy.”

    Hmm, lots of optimism in the stock market.. Those that were invested in stocks in 2011 are most likely millionaires today. Who else is buying more stock?

  31. 781
    Whatsmyname says:

    By Blurtman @ 779:

    10 year UST now at 1.265%. 30 year at 2.07%.

    What can the bond auction be indicating? Hmmm….

    Indicates more investment cash than investment opportunities.

    A natural, eventual result of raining $2T in stimulus on the investor classes, but only a fraction of that on the economy driving purchaser classes, (mostly consumers).

  32. 782
    Blurtman says:

    RE: Whatsmyname @ 781 – But increased demand should result in lower yields. That is, as demand outpaces supply, the bond price should rise, the yield fall.

  33. 783
    Erik says:

    RE: wreckingbull @ 778
    You were saying the same crap 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, and 2019. I guess if you just say it forever, you’ll be right at some point.

    There are no signs of a housing crash on the horizon, and you are screwing society by telling people it’s a bad idea to buy right now. Not everyone knows that you have a very low understanding of investing.

  34. 784
    Whatsmyname says:

    RE: Blurtman @ 782 – It would mean that after reaching astounding low yields during the last year, indicating lack of better investments; potential for productive investments is rising from the floor. Good news, all around.

  35. 785
    ruxpert says:

    “Bitcoin Fastest Horse in the Race, Gold [& RealEstate] Headed for the Glue Factory”
    https://youtu.be/c9mr3FZtKXA

  36. 786
    ruxpert says:

    RE: ruxpert @ 776

    dear SWE,
    I realize IT may be a bit confusing: corruption/chaos/entropy,
    and scary that it might be coming to eat us, like the cancer IT is;
    yet let us explore a bit more please:

    here, first read this from TIME Magazine:
    The Secret History of the Shadow Campaign That Saved the 2020 Election
    https://time.com/5936036/secret-2020-election-campaign/

  37. 787
    N says:

    RE: S-Crow @ 777 – @ SCrow

    So good to see your posts again!!!!!

  38. 788
  39. 789
    Blurtman says:

    U.S. EXTENDS FORECLOSURE MORATORIUM FOR HOMEOWNERS THROUGH JUNE 30, 2040

    https://www.reuters.com/article/brief-biden-administration-announces-ext-idUSFWN2KM09D

  40. 790

    RE: Blurtman @ 789

    Yes Blurtman

    And though 11% of mortgage payments were delinquent, 11% of rent payments to landlords were delinquent too…the rent eviction protection ends March 2021, mortgage payment eviction forgiveness extension through Sep 2021 was covered by the proposed $1.9T pipe dream Killer Flu Bill that will never get passed IMO. Its still up in the air, the MSM would never admit this IMO.

    Its a long wait for more stimulus money now iMO. The PORK Bill is not popular, especially the $15/hr min wage. Maybe by next Christmas it will pass?

  41. 791
    formerSeattleite says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 790

    Doubtful, It will pass towards the end of this month / early March. If it doesn’t pass by mid March, it will be forced through the senate with 51 votes. I’m confident it will pass before end of March. The ‘conservative’ Democrat senators (WV & AZ) will cave from the pressure from the far left and will vote to approve. Just my opinion but that’s how I see this playing out.

  42. 792
    uwp says:

    Eastsider has moved from being a Covid-Truther to a Vaccine-Truther, great.

    A choice quote from Eastsider on 5/13/20 (back when only 1,500 people a day were dying from Covid.):

    “There is simply no evidence/projection that total deaths from all causes will differ from expectation by any meaningful amount in the current flu season from Oct 5, 2019 to May 30, 2020.”

    https://seattlebubble.com/blog/2020/03/12/in-hibernation/comment-page-7/#comment-288373

  43. 793
    Eastsider says:

    RE: uwp @ 792
    Here is the US death rate data over last decade –

    Year Death Rate Growth Rate
    2020 8.880 1.120%
    2019 8.782 1.120%
    2018 8.685 1.220%
    2017 8.580 1.240%
    2016 8.475 1.270%
    2015 8.369 1.270%
    2014 8.264 1.290%
    2013 8.159 0.090%
    2012 8.152 0.090%
    2011 8.145 0.090%
    2010 8.138 0.090%

    https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/death-rate

    Given median age of CV deaths are close to 80, it is not expected to change the US life expectancy.

  44. 794
    Eastsider says:

    By Eastsider @ 709:

    Lock in your rates now because it is cheap relative to treasury. Watch mortgage rates rise over next 2 weeks. You read it here first.

    According to MND’s 30 Year Fixed (daily survey), the rate has gone up almost a quarter point (23 basis pt) from a week ago.

    Yes, Mortgage Rates are MUCH Higher This Week
    http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/consumer_rates/967845.aspx

    It’s unclear where rates will be near term. But I suspect it will end the year (much) higher.

  45. 795
    ruxpert says:

    RE: ruxpert @ 785

    … a bubble must draw the masses into the euphoria and then slaughter them as mercilessly as Hammurabi massacred the goat profiteers.

    https://www.oftwominds.com/blogfeb21/GBOAT2-21.html

  46. 796
    Eastsider says:

    RE: uwp @ 792
    Vaccine-Truther?

    Many healthcare workers refuse the vaccine at this time. If you want to take the vaccine, nobody is stopping you. But you have no right to impose your will on others. Get a life.

  47. 797
    Eastsider says:

    RE: ruxpert @ 795 – Many people do not understand that one does not get wealthy being a follower. Exhibit A – 90% of people who joined GME craze lost money.

  48. 798
    ruxpert says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 797
    Nor healthy, dear Vaccine-Truther ;-)

  49. 799
    Erik says:

    RE: Blurtman @ 789
    Mortgage forbearance now allows 15 months of not paying your mortgage. As Mr. Peppers talked about over 15 years ago, the longer you push the stimulus, the better deal you get. Based on what I saw from the last recession, it makes sense to stay in forbearance until the end.

    Maybe at the end, the fed will offer everyone that stuck it out a new car? Maybe an all inclusive vacation package? Maybe a cash prize? Nobody knows what gifts will be offered to those that ride this thing until the end, but something tells me rewards are coming. The 3 month bonus reward is nice, but there is likely more meat on the bone.

  50. 800
    ruxpert says:

    RE: ruxpert @ 795

    Kat’s Denial | Euphoria OST
    https://youtu.be/i9L7_H3ucsE

  51. 801
    ruxpert says:

    RE: ruxpert @ 800

    BofA Hints That Weimar 2.0 Could Be Coming
    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bofa-hints-weimar-20-could-be-coming
    Imagine an Emergency Increasing Increase in Interest Rates?
    (and increase in taxes to pay for Covid scam damage.)
    – Like a Riot on ‘Opportunity Zone’ USA

    Sound of the Suburbs’ wrote:
    “Bankers make the most money when they are driving your economy into a financial crisis.”

    [& reap more looting on the other side, buying up the busted]
    (further interesting info/videos there, I may post later)
    see reader’s comments
    —-

    The U.S. is About to Set a Record… and It’s Not a Good One
    February 16, 2021
    https://www.investmentwatchblog.com/the-u-s-is-about-to-set-a-record-and-its-not-a-good-one/

  52. 802
    uwp says:

    By Eastsider @ 793:

    Here is the US death rate data over last decade –

    Year Death Rate Growth Rate
    2020 8.880 1.120%
    2019 8.782 1.120%
    2018 8.685 1.220%

    Bold text at the top of the page from the link you posted:
    “NOTE: All 2020 and later data are UN projections and DO NOT include any impacts of the COVID-19 virus.”

    You had a similar problem last spring when you kept citing CDC data that explicitly told you it was delayed by 6-8 weeks because of processing time.

  53. 803
    Erik says:

    RE: uwp @ 802
    Eastsider is a bonehead. I’ve told Eastsider the same thing like 10 times and later on I see he still doesn’t understand. What Epastsider understands is to work a lot of hours to pay off his house. Then put the money in diversified, slow growth index funds to save enough to keep him fed until he dies. Anything beyond that goes in one ear and out the other.

  54. 804
    Eastsider says:

    RE: uwp @ 802 – Yes, I know the 2020 numbers are not finalized yet (and won’t be for another year?). That said, the death rate/growth rate has been increasing throughout the decade. Is 2014’s 1.290% growth rate normal? You tell me.

  55. 805
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Erik @ 799 – Waiting for handout is neither prudent nor smart. Freeloading tenants will be evicted. Deadbeat landlords will be foreclosed. We are still not a socialist country, yet.

  56. 806
    Eastsider says:

    I’m not a anti-vaxxer. But there are still a lot of unknowns about the current crop of C19 vaccines. I just found out that Facebook is not requiring employee vaccination. The Zuckerberg family most likely won’t be vaccinated in near future –

    https://www.lifesitenews.com/news/zuckerberg-warned-facebook-staff-to-exercise-caution-in-taking-covid-vaccine-in-leaked-video

  57. 807
    Erik says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 805
    Are you implying all the poor and prudent engineers are smarter than people that know how to build wealth?

  58. 808

    2021 Property Taxes for King County Went Through the Roof, I Got My Notice in the mail Yesterday

    I’d have to raise rent about $50 a month to break even. Did you get your winter heating bill for February yet….thank goodness my new furnace reduced the expense. But I still have to pay for the new furnace.

  59. 809
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Erik @ 807 – Some (smart) engineers are just not very good at finance. Some (mediocre) engineers are actually quite well versed in finance. Maybe you haven’t noticed that?

  60. 810
    Blurtman says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 808 – Somebody has to pay for Suzi Levine’s half billion dollar giveaway to Nigerian scammers. BTW, she has catapaulted from this astounding fiasco into the Biden adminstration where she will head up the Employment and Training Administration (ETA), which operates under the U.S. Labor Department.

    And folks keep voting this corrupt dreck into office. Go figure.

  61. 811
    Erik says:

    An engineer’s mind is better spent learning about investing in real estate vs spending all their time at work.

    My best friend from undergrad got a 3.9 in finance and isn’t very successful with money. I’ll admit, it was central Washington university, which may or may not count as a real school. He’s not successful because he’s scared to take risk. I talked him into getting at condo at the auction and the stress almost killed him. I don’t understand where all the stress was coming from, but like you he plans to save his way to retirement like other poor people.

    The point is, all the education in the world won’t help. Some people are just destined to be poor and can’t change that without working in themselves which they aren’t willing to do.

  62. 812
    ruxpert says:

    RE: ruxpert @ 801

    Follow The Bouncing Bankers
    How to destroy USA / Dollar?
    Financial Warfare Against Middle Class?
    Robert Kiyosaki on Stansberry Research
    Feb 16, 2021
    https://youtu.be/h3aCPiNPqCE

    viewer commentary:
    “Finally someone understands that it will not be a peaceful transition to economic collapse”

  63. 813
    ruxpert says:

    RE: ruxpert @ 812

    Macro Variables
    Lyn Alden: 2021 Market Crash vs. The Return Of Inflation?
    https://youtu.be/g9_2l0tIkv4
    Feb 13, 2021
    Talks about FED Spending & Inflation problem or not? etc.

    ===

    Meet Kevin:
    What Janet Yellen JUST Said [Stimulus Checks, BTC, Rates]
    Feb 18, 2021
    https://youtu.be/n3s_SBqC2ZU?t=280

    Destruction of USA / Dollar ?

    Perhaps the salient question that’s not being addressed is:
    Who is running USA & What do They Want?

  64. 814
    uwp says:

    By softwarengineer @ 808:

    2021 Property Taxes for King County Went Through the Roof, I Got My Notice in the mail Yesterday

    Our tax bill actually dropped $300/yr. On top of the refi last year, we are saving quite a bit extra each month. Huzzah!

  65. 815
    ARDELL DellaLoggia says:

    RE: ruxpert @ 813

     Strange. this sentence doesn’t sound like it was written by someone in the U.S. Tim? Are you letting Trolls in here. :)

    Ruxpert asks: “Who is running USA & What do They Want?”

  66. 816
    ruxpert says:

    RE: ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 815RE: ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 815

    Wow!
    See the deflection / distraction regarding a simple question?
    Why do people that behave like trolls often project about trolls?
    Is it a vaccine thing? Is it a case of divisive hysterical hypocrisy trying to create more chaos confusion in-fighting, in lieu of simply addressing a simple question?

    Regardless of motive, this is indication as to Our inability / refusal to deal w the issues that face us, that effect our health/economy/RE, etc

    Let’s hope that it does not trigger more trolling behavior against more simple info processing. ;-)

  67. 817
    Erik says:

    RE: ruxpert @ 813
    I like meetkevin and Robert Kiosaki. Both are saying inflation is coming. That means real estate prices are going to go up.

  68. 818
    Paulie says:

    Bitcoin will go up more than RE.

  69. 819
    Erik says:

    RE: Paulie @ 818
    Probably true

  70. 820
    Erik says:

    RE: Paulie @ 818
    Probably true

  71. 821
    disasteraverted says:

    RE: Paulie @ 818 – easily. Or it could go to 0, or back to $20K. I own very little BTC, but what I have left I’m gonna let ride. I have more ETH. After taking out 2x my investment I’ll just let it ride now?

  72. 822

    Seattle Area Public Schools will never Open, Biden’s first 100 day promise a LIE?

    https://nancyebailey.com/2020/06/28/22-reasons-why-schools-should-not-reopen-in-the-fall/

    The Tooth Fairy knows.

  73. 823
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Erik @ 817 – In the near term, it is likely that RE prices will enter ‘correction’ if rates move higher. This happened in 2018 despite ‘low’ inventory then.

  74. 824
    ruxpert says:

    RE: Erik @ 817

    Real Estate has been berry berry good to me!
    It’s the only investment I’ve really felt truly comfortable / secure about.
    And like you’ve pointed out, other people will live in it and pay for it, for you.
    Everybody needs a place to live.
    And look back, over many years: RE Prices have Increased.
    —-
    With that said, let me make clear, that I don’t know what’s going to happen!
    From what I’ve seen recently has me very uncomfortable / insecure about what’s going to happen.
    And I’m looking for information / other’s experience, etc. regarding what’s going to happen.
    Thank you for sharing! ;-)

  75. 825
    don says:

    RE: ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 815

    Definitely off the Group W bench, though.

    Searching the screen name is a hoot.

  76. 826
    ruxpert says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 823

    Inventory?
    Real Estate Housing Crash Q4 2021
    Feb 19, 2021
    https://youtu.be/ZFXObY99bXg

  77. 827
    disasteraverted says:

    By ruxpert @ 824:

    RE: Erik @ 817
    With that said, let me make clear, that I don’t know what’s going to happen!
    From what I’ve seen recently has me very uncomfortable / insecure about what’s going to happen.
    And I’m looking for information / other’s experience, etc. regarding what’s going to happen.
    Thank you for sharing! ;-)

    Amen. No one knows. It does seem like interest rates could be going up in the short term and that could repeat 2019 and slow things down a bit. But IMHO, it doesn’t seem like the Fed can allow interest rates to go much higher, we’ll be insolvent. Or, I guess they can just keep printing to pay back inflated debt, which will then inflate it more…

  78. 828
    Erik says:

    RE: disasteraverted @ 821
    I want to buy bitcoin and etherium, but I’m diamond handing Tesla. Could be a mistake.

    Real estate is leverage. If I owned $5M in real estate and prices went up 10%, I’d be up $500k. If I put $1M into crypto, it would have to go up 50% to get those gains. Real estate is very stable and I don’t see it crashing like crypto could.

  79. 829
    Erik says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 823
    2018 was a taper tantrum created by the fed. They learned their lesson on raising rates. Now they are going the opposite direction and just printing money. It’s a great time for real estate price inflation.

  80. 830
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Erik @ 829 – You are having too much faith in the Fed. The Fed funds rate has been steady in the last 3 mos when 10yr UST yield went up 53bp (as of this morning). Over one year timeframe, Fed funds rate has dropped 150bp while UST yield went down about 15bp (as of this morning). I project UST yield to be up YoY later this month. So their 150bp rate cut will do nothing to stop mortgage rates from moving (much) higher soon. They are losing control. Not good.

  81. 831
    ruxpert says:

    RE: disasteraverted @ 827
    Hi,
    Yes! What you wrote reminds me of
    ‘The Box We’ve Been Put Into’
    & the Stagflation issue/question
    both of which I recently asked the forum about in post 702 & 703
    ==
    starting @ approx 5min.mark
    ‘The Box We’ve Been Put Into’
    https://youtu.be/eM009xjtyUE?t=303

    ‘Runaway inflation OR Everything Blows-up?’
    &
    ‘Will We have time to ‘react’?

    What happens to RE during Stagflation?
    ==
    https://seattlebubble.com/blog/2020/11/09/around-the-sound-still-a-dismal-market-for-buyers-everywhere/comment-page-3/#comment-295293

  82. 832
    ruxpert says:

    RE: ruxpert @ 831

    ” … it’s a dynamic that destroys all sorts of people in the economy.
    What you wind up with is a bunch of rich people that know how to maneuver their way through it,
    and everyone else is poor.
    And that’s what you find in 3rd world countries from lots of inflation; the middle class is gone, lots of poor people, and a few Oligarchs; and that’s again where the U.S. is heading.”
    https://youtu.be/eM009xjtyUE?t=572

    “The Great Reset” ?

    “Who is running USA & What do They Want?”

  83. 833
    OA says:

    Saw this on youtube today, don’t know much about this guy but I think he breaks down the current state of the real estate market right now. Thoughts?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qOOr0n6XAec

  84. 834

    RE: OA @ 833

    LOL! How did you find that guy with less than 7,000 views? I think it will start balancing out by May when people start listing at this year’s vs last year’s comp prices. Maybe April in some neighborhoods.

  85. 835

    The $19T Stimulus Bill Stopped Forever By the Dem $15/hr min wage hike?

    New news.

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/14068467/stimulus-checks-delayed-provision-biden-package/

  86. 836
    Eastsider says:

    By don @ 752:

    If so much promise is contained in invermectin, why hasn’t a big pharma bought the rights and submitted for the IND?

    Japan is the latest country to take part in Ivermectin trial. Trials have taken place in Spain, France, Egypt, Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, Peru, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Lebanon, Israel, Iraq, Iran, Turkey, USA.

    https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Coronavirus/Tokyo-considers-trials-of-parasite-drug-for-COVID-19

    From ivmmeta.com –

    •100% of the 41 studies to date report positive effects. Random effects meta-analysis for early treatment and pooled effects shows a reduction of 83%, RR 0.17 [0.11-0.28]. Prophylactic use shows a reduction of 89%, RR 0.11 [0.05-0.23]. Mortality results show 78% lower mortality, RR 0.22 [0.12-0.41] for all treatment delays, and 86% lower, RR 0.14 [0.03-0.62] for early treatment.
    •100% of the 20 Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) report positive effects, with an estimated reduction of 72%, RR 0.28 [0.17-0.47].
    •The probability that an ineffective treatment generated results as positive as the 41 studies to date is estimated to be 1 in 2 trillion (p = 0.00000000000045).

    Early treatment 83% improvement RR 0.17 [0.11-0.28]
    Late treatment 52% improvement RR 0.48 [0.35-0.64]
    Prophylaxis 89% improvement RR 0.11 [0.05-0.23]

    Total 41 studies 304 authors 14,833 patients
    RCT 20 studies 153 authors 2,796 patients

  87. 837
    Erik says:

    RE: ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 834
    This spring and summer, King County real estate, crypto currency, and silver are going to the moon. As the fed keeps rolling the money printers, the inflation hedges are going to skyrocket. That’s my forecast. King County real estate is going up with Crypto and precious metals.

  88. 838
    Matt P says:

    Reading about houses in freaking Renton Highlands going for $200k over asking? What in the world is going on out there? I also see Olympia prices doubling. I think a lot of people are in for a rude awakening when they realize they are stuck in their jobs because they moved and can’t find a new remote job to work in then they will be forced to move back to Seattle.

  89. 839
    don says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 836

    I hope it works. Still a good question, though. Does it have generic status?

  90. 840
    OA says:

    RE: ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 834

    Interesting. How much less new construction is there in our area compared to 2006/2007?

  91. 841
    Eastsider says:

    RE: don @ 839

    You can’t get Ivermectin without a prescription in the US although it is dispensed freely in many third world countries. However, there is an Ivermectin drug for horses that you can pick up over the counter or online. Check out Amazon reviews of one of these products. (I’m not advising taking it.) Some interesting comments there (prior to Covid.) You have to be careful with the dosage. Otherwise, it is one of the UN wonder drugs that received a Nobel mention. Learn more about it on https://covid19criticalcare.com/.

    Ivermectin is an off patent drug and generic is available. Very cheap in other countries.

    Note that prophylaxis shows a 89% improvement which is very close to the mRNA vaccines, but without the unknowns and associated risks. Now you should ask why NIH/CDC is not granting it a EUA exception. It costs practically nothing compared to the “vaccines”.

  92. 842
    Erik says:

    RE: Matt P @ 838
    The investment group I’m in was telling everyone to buy in Renton Highlands in 2013,14,15,16. Guess they were right. I just want to keep buying in Seattle because I think it’s a very safe

    When I get back to buying, I would love to buy more houses in Rainier View. I think that is a very safe bet and still fairly cheap.

  93. 843
    don says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 841

    If no one has applied for an EUA for the drug, one would not be granted, no?

    I have no plans to take the drug, I get Moderna shot #one next week. No cost to me.

  94. 844
    Matt P says:

    RE: Erik @ 842

    Cities are definitely safer. Suburbs and rural areas always crash harder than cities do unless there’s a systemic issue in the city like in Detroit where jobs completely disappeared.

  95. 845
    Eastsider says:

    RE: don @ 843

    Dr. Joseph Varon (FLCCC Alliance) presented his evidence to a US Senate panel last month because he went nowhere with CDC/NIH. They changed their stance from against to neutral following the hearing. After the change of stance your doctor can now prescribe it unless their hospitals or state regulators prevent them from doing so.

  96. 846
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Matt P @ 844 – There is no evidence suburbs and rural areas are more vulnerable than cities.

    S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index 10yr annulized return is 5.06%
    S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 10-City Composite Home Price NSA Index 10yr annulized return is 4.80%

    https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/indicators/sp-corelogic-case-shiller-us-national-home-price-nsa-index/#overview
    https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/indicators/sp-corelogic-case-shiller-10-city-composite-home-price-nsa-index/#overview

  97. 847
    Brianna says:

    Spanaway as a hot spot was more shocking to me than the Renton Highlands: https://www.seattlepi.com/realestate/slideshow/spanaway-most-competitive-area-for-buying-house-215091.php

  98. 848
    Erik says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 846
    Eastside is considered the suburbs of Seattle. Last crash, the Eastside went wayyy down, like 2/3rds for condos. Seattle condos went down a little, but Eastside crashed hard. I bought a condo In Kirkland for $92.7k in November 2011 and sold it for $233k in December 2013. A little remodel work was done, but nothing crazy.

    I’m not trying to toot my own horn, but that is an example of the suburbs crashing much harder than the city. I remember I was going to get a 1br in North Seattle, but it was $139k. I remember thinking that is kinda high and it’s a small place. Then I found the 2br, 1000+sq. ft. condo in Kirkland by a cool bar and had a view of the space needle, so I bought in Kirkland.

    There is your anecdotal evidence.

  99. 849
    justsomedude12 says:

    By Blurtman @ 810:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 808 – Somebody has to pay for Suzi Levine’s half billion dollar giveaway to Nigerian scammers. BTW, she has catapaulted from this astounding fiasco into the Biden adminstration where she will head up the Employment and Training Administration (ETA), which operates under the U.S. Labor Department.

    And folks keep voting this corrupt dreck into office. Go figure.

    Yes, this should not just be swept under the rug. People should remember it.

  100. 850
    ARDELL DellaLoggia says:

    RE: OA @ 840

    Define “our area” and I’ll run the stats for it. In “my” area there is less because back in 2003 to 2007 there was a ton of new construction in Education Hill Redmond. It’s more about where is the land to build on. But that’s likely more my perception as I don’t do as much new construction as I do resale homes. As the market climbs there are more and more tear down/spec builders, which is mostly what I see where I am. I didn’t follow the move to Snoqualmie Ridge which is where many of the larger projects went. I don’t believe in chasing new houses to wherever they may lead you. Back in the 2006 and early 2007 years I didn’t chase it out to Monroe and up to Lake Stevens, as example. But many did.

    Define “our area” and I’ll tell you but I don’t know why you are asking about new construction. Resale homes are HOT in my area. New is too pricey for most of my peeps.

  101. 851
    Matt P says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 846

    And what if you go back to the crash not from 2011?

  102. 852
    Wile E. Millenial says:

    > I think a lot of people are in for a rude awakening when they realize they are stuck in their jobs because they moved and can’t find a new remote job to work in then they will be forced to move back to Seattle.

    I don’t think this is the whole story. The entire country is in a real estate bubble. My brother was trying to buy a house with flexibility to live across a large, cheap east coast region… but everything on the market is expensive garbage. Bidding wars are not limited to places with rich remote workers. Everyone seems to have a local explanation for their theory (is Bozeman really overrun with Seattleites?)… but this was happening before COVID too.

    I’m not saying bubble vs. no bubble, but there’s definitely a huge movement of capital into real estate right now. Lots of my friends (in and out of Seattle) are buying or trying to buy. ::shrug:: glad I already own.

  103. 853
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Erik @ 751

    The number of 401k/IRA millionaires at Fidelity alone has reached 622,000. It is entirely possible to retire wealthy if you are discipline and save diligently thru your working career. It is incredible that the number jumped from under 250k to 622k during the 4 years of last administration. Check out the chart in the article. Economic policies matter.

    Retirement Balances Hit Records, So Do Ranks Of Fidelity 401(k) And IRA Millionaires
    https://www.investors.com/etfs-and-funds/retirement/retirement-savings-balances-hit-record-number-fidelity-investments-401k-ira-millionaires-set-records/

  104. 854
    Eastsider says:

    By Wile E. Millenial @ 852:

    I don’t think this is the whole story. The entire country is in a real estate bubble. My brother was trying to buy a house with flexibility to live across a large, cheap east coast region… but everything on the market is expensive garbage. Bidding wars are not limited to places with rich remote workers. Everyone seems to have a local explanation for their theory (is Bozeman really overrun with Seattleites?)… but this was happening before COVID too.

    Every time this much frantic buying happened in the past, it ended badly. We are in for a wild ride in the next year or two.

  105. 855
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Matt P @ 851 – I don’t have a theory on this. I just don’t think there is evidence that suburb crashes harder than cities. If you look at rents today, city rents are declining far more than suburbs.

  106. 856
    don says:

    Zip level rent indices are available from Zillow research:

    https://www.zillow.com/research/data/

  107. 857
    Blurtman says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 854 – When will supply outpace demand? When you sell where you live, you have to live somewhere else. Unless you are moving out of the area to a lower cost region, you are buying in this inventory restricted, high-priced market. So why sell, then? If you downsize, you know you are getting less bang for the buck. And if you upsize, you are paying more than you sold for.

  108. 858
    ruxpert says:

    RE: ruxpert @ 832

    Feb.18.2021
    Very Urgent: international alert message about COVID-19
    Mr. Joe Biden: President of the United States,
    Ms. Kamala Harris: Vice President
    and Mr. Norris Cochran: Secretary of the United States Department of Health and Human Services,

    1500 Medical Professors declare The Corona Virus a FRAUD
    International Alert Message about COVID-19. United Health Professionals
    https://www.globalresearch.ca/international-alert-message-about-covid-19-united-health-professionals/5737680

  109. 859
    ruxpert says:

    RE: ruxpert @ 858

    Who Pressed the Great Reset Button?
    https://www.globalresearch.ca/who-pressed-great-reset-button/5730169

    The Covid Deception Serves An Undeclared Agenda
    https://www.globalresearch.ca/the-covid-deception-serves-an-undeclared-agenda/5737798

    “The Great Reset” ?
    “Who is running USA & What do They Want?”

  110. 860
    Erik says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 853
    A million dollars or more at retirement is just enough to survive these days. That’s not wealthy.

  111. 861
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Erik @ 860 – Do you think these people just have their wealth in 401k/IRA?

  112. 862
    Eastsider says:

    By Blurtman @ 857:

    When will supply outpace demand?

    When rates rise, demand drops. I read somewhere that today’s homebuyers are buying a ‘payment’, not a home. With foreclosures looming, supply will increase.

    Prices are set by marginal buyers. It does not take a lot of buyers/sellers to move prices, bigly. Similar to a multiple-bidding situation. Do you really think the highest bid determines the (real) price? The housing bubble popped in 2007 and it will happen again (not saying we are in a bubble today.)

  113. 863
    Erik says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 861
    I like the idea of retiring young. I like the idea of making enough monthly real estate income to exceed your expenses. Basically living on an appreciating asset that feeds you until you die.

  114. 864
    Paulie says:

    Expensive garbage? For anyone who has been working in tech and/or hodling their btc, those are bargain bin deals. There are people who can afford this, the money is there.

    By Wile E. Millenial @ 852:

    > I think a lot of people are in for a rude awakening when they realize they are stuck in their jobs because they moved and can’t find a new remote job to work in then they will be forced to move back to Seattle.

    I don’t think this is the whole story. The entire country is in a real estate bubble. My brother was trying to buy a house with flexibility to live across a large, cheap east coast region… but everything on the market is expensive garbage. Bidding wars are not limited to places with rich remote workers. Everyone seems to have a local explanation for their theory (is Bozeman really overrun with Seattleites?)… but this was happening before COVID too.

    I’m not saying bubble vs. no bubble, but there’s definitely a huge movement of capital into real estate right now. Lots of my friends (in and out of Seattle) are buying or trying to buy. ::shrug:: glad I already own.

  115. 865
    OA says:

    By ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 850:

    RE: OA @ 840

    Define “our area” and I’ll run the stats for it. In “my” area there is less because back in 2003 to 2007 there was a ton of new construction in Education Hill Redmond. It’s more about where is the land to build on. But that’s likely more my perception as I don’t do as much new construction as I do resale homes. As the market climbs there are more and more tear down/spec builders, which is mostly what I see where I am. I didn’t follow the move to Snoqualmie Ridge which is where many of the larger projects went. I don’t believe in chasing new houses to wherever they may lead you. Back in the 2006 and early 2007 years I didn’t chase it out to Monroe and up to Lake Stevens, as example. But many did.

    Define “our area” and I’ll tell you but I don’t know why you are asking about new construction. Resale homes are HOT in my area. New is too pricey for most of my peeps.

    I was more referring to King County, so pretty general. Would be easy to quantify vs 15+ years ago?

  116. 866

    Good Assortment of Comments All

    Today’s news summed it up; far less folks are moving to Seattle now YOY and that should increase prices. I know drive your car 100 miles further on no gas…same lack of common sense.

  117. 867
    Erik says:

    RE: Paulie @ 864
    Smart money is buying stuff that won’t go down in value when the fed prints more and more fake money. Real estate is and always will be my favorite. I like bitcoin and silver too, but I only keep that so I can buy more real estate when the dollar goes down in value.

    Janet Yellen is trying to keep everyone out of crypto and trying to get Americans to believe the fed won’t just keep printing. Smart money is bailing on dollar bills as fast as possible. We are at a point where if stimulus gets pulled, our economy will spiral down. That’s no reason not to buy real estate though. Real estate will likely be pushed up for years like this and it’s a great time to own.

  118. 868
    Joe says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 853

    Yes, but the cash flow from those investments has actually dropped. It’s an illusion.

  119. 869
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Joe @ 868 – Well, cashflow is still positive. Rental properties at today’s prices? Hmm…

  120. 870

    RE: Eastsider @ 869

    My Estimate Based on My King County Property Tax Returns for 2021 on a $300K Seattle home:

    Rents to go up about $100-150/mo and so are mortgage payments on $700K+ homes.

    The foggy wage decreases will handle the rent increases?

    Gas heading for $4/gal too?

  121. 871
    Back to Basics says:

    Lumber and other building material went up through the roof. Labor shortage, min wage increase, more regulation, all point to housing price inflation. Mortgage rate at 2.5%. For Seattle housing owners, hold you house tight is the way to hedge again hyperinflation.

  122. 872
    Matt P says:

    What are tax increases looking like for everyone? Mine went up only $70 in West Seattle after going up $770 last year.

  123. 873
    ruxpert says:

    RE: ruxpert @ 831

    ‘The Box We’ve Been Put Into’

    Elon Musk Replies to Peter Schiff’s Bitcoin Tweet – Ep 661
    https://youtu.be/ui6rr50NV6Q?t=71

  124. 874

    RE: OA @ 865

    That was interesting. I did sold properties with at least 3 bedrooms, 11/1/2005 to 1/31/2006 (referred to as 06 below) vs 11/1/2020 to 1/31/2021 (referred to as 2021 below). So the most recent full 3 month period this year and back in 2005-6. King County

    Built prior to 1970
    06 – 2,435 properties at a median price of $400k
    21 – 2,368 properties at a median price of $775k

    Built 1971 to 1999
    06 – 2,259 properties at a median price of $400k
    21 – 1,856 properties at a median price of $715k

    New/Newer Construction (basically 3 years old or less)
    Built 2003-Jan 2006 sold 06 – 1,292 properties at a median price of $432k
    Built 2018 -Jan 2021 sold 21 – 1,296 properties at a median price of $840k

    I’m not sure what you were looking for OA and I expanded it a bit to what I needed to know as well. But for new homes back in the 2005 period and new homes now, there seem to be almost the same number of units sold in the last 90 day rolling basis period for each. This is King County and sometimes new moves from King to Pierce or Snohomish due to lack of available land. But it was interesting to me that it was basically the same.

    I make no distinction once a property has at least 3 bedrooms as to type of property because of the problem with some townhomes being “condo” and some townhomes being classified as “sfh”. So I count all 3 bedroom plus properties to keep that townhome disparity at a constant. Even though they are not a significant factor, both of these periods had a lot of townhomes built in Seattle as Single Family during both of those times. So I included all properties with at least 3 bedrooms in the whole county.

    I skipped built between 2000 and 2018 because the majority of those weren’t built by 2003 for the comparison stats above. I moved the last period to be homes built in Jan or 3 years prior in each period.

    Hope that is clear and answers your question.

    (Required Disclosure. Stats in this post are calculated in Real Time by ARDELL and are not compiled, verified or published by The Northwest Multiple Listing Service.)

  125. 875
    Eastsider says:

    Here is a headline news article from WSJ this morning. Note that the rising 30yr mortgage rate is still about 1% below one year ago, yet it is “cooling off home purchase and refinance applications ahead of the all-important spring selling season.” I’m including one comment on the news article below. (As I noted earlier, people are not buying homes. They are buying a payment.)

    Rising Rates Damp Mortgage Applications Ahead of Spring Selling Season
    The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage rose to 2.81% last week, its highest level since November
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/rising-rates-damp-mortgage-applications-ahead-of-spring-selling-season-11614168007

    Comment section
    Laurence wrote –

    What’s scary about a rise in mortgage rates is:

    Say someone buys a $625,000 house, puts down 20% ($125,000) and borrows $500,000 for 30 years @ 3%. The monthly payment is $2,108.

    @ 4% for the same $2,108 monthly payment the next buyer can only borrow $441,544. That’s a $551,930 house with 20% ($110,386) down.

    @ 5% for the same $2,108 monthly payment the next buyer can only borrow $393,682. That’s a $492,103 house with 20% ($98,421) down.

    @ 6% for the same $2,108 monthly payment the next buyer can only borrow $351,597. That’s a $439,496 house with 20% ($87,899) down.

    All else equal, going from 3% to 5% for the same payment the first buyer effectively has no equity left. But this time it’s different, eh.

  126. 876
    disasteraverted says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 875 – holy S that is a great observation. Of course the payment for the existing owner doesn’t change, so as long as they aren’t forced to sell they’ll keep forever? Renting out becomes a decent option if one has to move?

    I’m thinking about buying a neighbor’s townhouse right now and it pencils out to rent ATM, but I predict it won’t hold it’s value over the next 5-10 years. SFR is off the chart, can’t stomach that right now.

  127. 877
    Blurtman says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 875 – Nothing that a 60 year mortgage can’t solve.

  128. 878

    Watch Your Home Maintenance Costs Sky-rocket if Ya Hire a Contractor

    Yesterday a Kent man was killed arguing about his home maintenance costs with “rich elite” contractor.

    Were really broke and pretend we have wealth anyway? Watch your tempers folks during these lean times. Its life or death now over a plumbing repair?

  129. 879

    RE: Blurtman @ 877
    LOL Blurtman:

    Reminds me of 7 year automobile mortgages….the car is wore out and destroyed before its paid for.

  130. 880
    Eastsider says:

    RE: disasteraverted @ 876 – The only problem with your assumption is that rent will hold. In the last housing crash, rent dropped over 40% in many areas. Rent is already down 25% from recent peak in Seattle.

  131. 881
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Blurtman @ 877

    60yr mortgage is not going to bail out the housing market. As mortgage rates declined steadily over the decades, homebuyers profited by refinancing at ever lower rates. It became some kind of transfer payment to household.

    Now that the refi ATM has dried up, the end of transfer payment is going to have an effect on household finances, especially those on the margin. Some may not even afford their low mortgage payments in coming years.

    If you are contemplating rental investment at this time, think thrice, at least.

  132. 882
    Back to Basics says:

    It’s all about inflation. Inflation is already at your door step. Everything will become more expensive. Include labor cost and housing price.

  133. 883
    Eastsider says:

    10 yr treasury yields are moving significantly higher YTD in all advanced countries. It will move even higher from here as global economies reopen. Mortgage rates will continue to march higher unless there is a major financial upheaval (due to rising rates?!)

    US .917% => 1,338%
    Germany -.605% => -.3%
    UK .2% => .736%
    Australia .994% =>1.623%
    Japan .023% => .123%

  134. 884
    Whatsmyname says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 875 – And what is inflation doing through your rising interest rate scenarios?

  135. 885
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Whatsmyname @ 884 – I’m not sure what all the fuss is about “inflation”. Inflation is still far from historic norm. Yes, rising “inflation” is going to cause pains because it has been suppressed for at least a decade. I don’t think it will even get close to historic norm amid this irrational fear.

  136. 886
  137. 887
    Back to Basics says:

    Buidling material inflation is already there. Go visit HomeDepot Lowe’s. It cost 10-20% more cost as material alone. Let alone construction worker wage due to covie-19. Everything will cost more. Money supply and mortgage will still benefit housing sector. I don’t see bubble in housing sector.

  138. 888
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Brianna @ 886 – The hyperinflation scenario has been talked about for well over a decade. I don’t believe anyone wants it here. It would bring about miseries 100x worse than last summer’s “protests”. Sure it could happen but it is not in my current playbook.

  139. 889
    Erik says:

    RE: Back to Basics @ 882
    Right! It’s all about inflation. If the fed raises rates, the economy will tank, so they have no choice but to keep the money printers rolling. Then things will open up and the velocity of money will increase until we over inflate.

    Gold, silver, bitcoin! Use the profits to buy more real estate.

  140. 890
    Erik says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 888
    We are definitely gonna have inflation. I’m very interested if we are going to have runaway inflation.

  141. 891
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Erik @ 890 – I read 3 articles today in MSM that mention potential home price decline in spring! LOL. I am not making prediction but I won’t buy RE at these prices. Good luck!

  142. 892
    IsErikRichYet says:

    I’m not in the hyperinflation camp either. My main reason is this:

    – Housing prices are up 2x-4x depending on market in the last 10 years
    – Asset prices are up 2x-4x in the last 10 years
    – Taxes (the destruction of dollars) will be going up

    Inflation already happened.

    Wages above the median went up over the last decade but wages below the median didn’t. That largely reflects why we haven’t seen inflation in prices of essentials. So maybe we get a bit of inflation there. Go ahead and double my grocery bill. That’s a blip on the radar compared to anyone who bought a house in the last 2-3 years paying 2-4x what someone in 2011 did.

    Long term inflation is only a concern if you don’t think the economy will recover and we need this low rate environment for fake stimulation forever. In that scenario, we have much bigger issues because competition will be destroyed, we will be stagnant as a country, surpassed by China and India, and actual good jobs (knowledge economy) will slowly start to disappear.

    But fear not. The recent surge in bond yields indicates the world does feel an economic recovery is coming and this means there will be alternatives to assets and borrowing will have real costs.

  143. 893
    Brianna says:

    I was thinking like you too on inflation, but that’s why the article I posted above caught my attention. Here’s an excerpt, and tell me if you see this pattern possibly repeating:

    “Below is an easily digestible repost of Burry’s lengthy Saturday tweetstorm, which shows just how similar our world is to that prevalent in the years just before Weimar Germany saw the most explosive hyperinflation in history.

     “The life of the inflation in its ripening stage was a paradox which had its own unmistakable characteristics. One was the great wealth, at least of those favored by the boom..Many great fortunes sprang up overnight…The cities, had an aimless and wanton youth”

    “Prices in Germany were steady, and both business and the stock market were booming. The exchange rate of the mark against the dollar and other currencies actually rose for a time, and the mark was momentarily the strongest currency in the world” on inflation’s eve.

    “Side by side with the wealth were the pockets of poverty. Greater numbers of people remained on the outside of the easy money, looking in but not able to enter. The crime rate soared.”

    “Speculation alone, while adding nothing to Germany’s wealth, became one of its largest activities. The fever to join in turning a quick mark infected nearly all classes..Everyone from the elevator operator up was playing the market.”

    “The volumes of turnover in securities on the Berlin Bourse became so high that the financial industry could not keep up with the paperwork…and the Bourse was obliged to close several days a week to work off the backlog”

    “all the marks that existed in the world in the summer of 1922 were not worth enough, by November of 1923, to buy a single  newspaper or a tram ticket. That was the spectacular part of the collapse, but most of the real loss in money wealth had been suffered much earlier.”

     “Throughout these years the structure was quietly building itself up for the blow. Germany’s inflationcycle ran not for a year but for nine years, representing eight years of gestation and only one year of collapse.”

  144. 894
    David says:

    How can the Fed afford to raise rates unless the US Government converts so much into very long-term bonds at very low rates? Otherwise, the Government cannot afford to pay interest on so much debt.

    Does anyone remember or currently see the Government advertising Bonds yet? They’ll have to sell to suckers like my Dad who squirreled away Savings Bonds at some ridiculously low interest. He really thought he was making a good investment too.

    Inflation will happen because the Government cannot afford to raise rates and needs inflation to lower the cost of the debt. Housing will continue to rise as long as there are young people able to buy the houses – otherwise deflation or stagflation.

    By Erik @ 890:

    RE: Eastsider @ 888
    We are definitely gonna have inflation. I’m very interested if we are going to have runaway inflation.

  145. 895
    Back to Basics says:

    When building a house cost more to the builder, guess what will happen? Price increase. 1st of all, there is no land avaible to build in Seattle any more. Builder have buy an existing house, tear down and build a more expensive to make it break even and hopfully make some money.

  146. 896
    Wile E. Millenial says:

    By Matt P @ 872:

    What are tax increases looking like for everyone? Mine went up only $70 in West Seattle after going up $770 last year.

    RE: Matt P @ 872 – Same — mine in Seattle went up fifty bucks this year. Last year it went up over 20% on the other hand.

  147. 897
    Erik says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 891
    Mainstream media is for Biden. They helped get him in. Of course they are not going to tell you that the Biden administration will keep creating money to keep the economy strong and then crash from hyperinflation after the next election.

    Poor people read mainstream media because because if they told everyone the country is f’d and we have no option but to print more money, the economy would crash much sooner. Biden wants it to crash after the next election, so he’s gonna run the printers running until then. Everyone that I know that believes what the media tells them is poor. Rich people think for themselves.

  148. 898
    Erik says:

    RE: IsErikRichYet @ 892
    I think everyone is talking about inflation because the fed has already pumped $2.8T dollars into the economy. Soon, they will likely pump another $1.9T. All of our politicians want this. Jay Pow, the man running the printer, wants to print. Janet Yellen at the treasury wants to print more and is willing to change the rules to do so. Joe Biden wants to print. The Democratic majority house and senate want to print.

    Hyper inflation is a future prediction that our elected officials will keep doing more stimulus driving up potential inflation. Then people will get out and start spending which will increase the velocity of money and inflation will skyrocket. I think we have a 30% chance of runaway inflation and a 100% chance of high inflation over the next few years.

  149. 899
    Justsomedude12 says:

    RE: IsErikRichYet @ 892 – Eastsider’s 2nd account makes another appearance.

    (I must admit the username is pretty funny though)

  150. 900
    Eastsider says:

    By Back to Basics @ 895:

    When building a house cost more to the builder, guess what will happen?

    Rewind one decade. Land prices declined. Labor costs lowered. (Seen Home Depot lines?) Material prices dropped.

  151. 901
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Justsomedude12 @ 899 – You are clueless.

  152. 902
    Eastsider says:

    This ruling will only deplete affordable rental housing going forward. The city should pay their rents and pursue payments later. How about allowing residents to defer property and utility tax payments?

    King County judge upholds series of Seattle eviction protections
    https://mynorthwest.com/2630692/king-county-judge-upholds-seattle-eviction-protections/

  153. 903
    Eastsider says:

    By Eastsider @ 883:

    10 yr treasury yields are moving significantly higher YTD in all advanced countries. It will move even higher from here as global economies reopen. Mortgage rates will continue to march higher unless there is a major financial upheaval (due to rising rates?!)

    US .917% => 1,338%
    Germany -.605% => -.3%
    UK .2% => .736%
    Australia .994% =>1.623%
    Japan .023% => .123%

    US 10yr yield is 1.472% this morning. That is more than 10bp hike since I posted yesterday. 30yr mortgage rates will follow shortly.

    2% 10yr and 4% mortgage look likely this year. May happen sooner than we think…

  154. 904
    Blurtman says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 903 – The 30 year at 3% presents an interesting investment opportunity. Sure, the bond’s value decreases as rates rise above the interest rate you’ve locked in. But it is likely we will see rates go below 3% in the future, too. And you can always ladder up.

  155. 905

    RE: Back to Basics @ 882
    A BIG Increase in Food Prices for 2021 Coming, at a theater near you

    Energy costs under potential deficit funded Green Deal will make “Oil Based” Food products cost, plastic containers, fertilizers, transportation, farm tractor operation go off the Richtor Scale as America stops producing oil. The poor will suffer the most. The rich elite dems/reps could care less? The food inside the containers is essentially free.

    Believe the MSM lies, they won’t lead ya astray? LOL

  156. 906
    Whatsmyname says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 885 – The thing about inflation is you are holding the payment at a constant as though inflation didn’t affect cash available for making payments. But you are not going to see rates rise from where they are to , say 6%, without increased inflation. In that case, money available for payments will increase as well. An increase in inflation may also stimulate households to reallocate priorities for inflation hedging assets such as real estate. Finally, increases in housing stock added are skewed to apartments/rentals. If population keeps growing, this provides room to allow for-sale housing to slowly skew toward a higher part of the wealth/income spectrum, again reducing constriction due to payment dollars available.

  157. 907
    OA says:

    By ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 874:

    RE: OA @ 865

    That was interesting. I did sold properties with at least 3 bedrooms, 11/1/2005 to 1/31/2006 (referred to as 06 below) vs 11/1/2020 to 1/31/2021 (referred to as 2021 below). So the most recent full 3 month period this year and back in 2005-6. King County

    Built prior to 1970
    06 – 2,435 properties at a median price of $400k
    21 – 2,368 properties at a median price of $775k

    Built 1971 to 1999
    06 – 2,259 properties at a median price of $400k
    21 – 1,856 properties at a median price of $715k

    New/Newer Construction (basically 3 years old or less)
    Built 2003-Jan 2006 sold 06 – 1,292 properties at a median price of $432k
    Built 2018 -Jan 2021 sold 21 – 1,296 properties at a median price of $840k

    I’m not sure what you were looking for OA and I expanded it a bit to what I needed to know as well. But for new homes back in the 2005 period and new homes now, there seem to be almost the same number of units sold in the last 90 day rolling basis period for each. This is King County and sometimes new moves from King to Pierce or Snohomish due to lack of available land. But it was interesting to me that it was basically the same.

    I make no distinction once a property has at least 3 bedrooms as to type of property because of the problem with some townhomes being “condo” and some townhomes being classified as “sfh”. So I count all 3 bedroom plus properties to keep that townhome disparity at a constant. Even though they are not a significant factor, both of these periods had a lot of townhomes built in Seattle as Single Family during both of those times. So I included all properties with at least 3 bedrooms in the whole county.

    I skipped built between 2000 and 2018 because the majority of those weren’t built by 2003 for the comparison stats above. I moved the last period to be homes built in Jan or 3 years prior in each period.

    Hope that is clear and answers your question.

    (Required Disclosure. Stats in this post are calculated in Real Time by ARDELL and are not compiled, verified or published by The Northwest Multiple Listing Service.)

    Wow thanks for doing that analysis, really comprehensive. Interesting to see that the relatively new (3 yrs old or less) house sales are basically the same between the two periods.

    Safe to say that inventory back then was 2x/3x more compared to today? If that’s the case then would it be safe to assume there were more new construction back then? What do you think?

  158. 908
    ruxpert says:

    Mortgage rates climb higher to 2.97%
    The average mortgage rate for a 30-year fixed loan is now just 3 basis points away from 3%, after a 16 basis point jump according to Freddie Mac.
    https://www.housingwire.com/articles/mortgage-rates-climb-higher-to-2-97/

  159. 909
    Erik says:

    Hey Tim, if you are out there! Redfin Data Center is pretty freaking awesome. It’s a hidden gem. I guess I can just get the information you use to post from Redfin Data Center.

    Seattle vs Bellevue months of inventory for condos:
    https://public.tableau.com/profile/redfin#!/vizhome/RedfinDataCentertrend/MedianSalePrice

  160. 910
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Whatsmyname @ 906 – Interest rates have decoupled from inflation for some time. With or without inflation, interest rates are heading higher.

    But people need to stop worrying about inflation. This economy can use some “inflation”.

    Note I’m not a economist.

  161. 911
    ruxpert says:

    (Some interesting angles on deflation/inflation):
    Stock Market Most Overvalued EVER Warns Analyst Worried About Coming Crash
    https://youtu.be/442m5BHfMKU?t=360

  162. 912
    Blurtman says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 910 – Please stop the insanity. There has been asset price and services price inflation for quite some time – RE, equites, higher ed, automobiles, healthcare.

  163. 913
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Blurtman @ 912 – I was referring to the CPI, the official inflation measure, which can use some inflation itself. I don’t mean there has been no inflation.

    Inflation affects individuals differently. If you are on subsidized healthcare, there is no healthcare inflation. If you don’t send kids to college, or if your kids qualify for subsidies, there is no higher ed inflation. If you don’t have a car, there is no transport inflation. Inflation affects middleclass families and (low) interest rate affects savers and retirees disproportionately.

    The official CPI needs to go (much) higher but I don’t expect real inflation to take off, as in hyperinflation. Interest rates need to be (much) higher too. Both are heavily manipulated and are distorting the economy and asset prices.

  164. 914

    Its Just Like Jack Smashing Through the Bathroom Door With His Bloody Ax in Stephen King’s “The Shining”

    Screaming, “I’m Back!”

    https://theweek.com/speedreads/969094/covid19-cases-deaths-are-starting-rise-again-how-worried-should

    The Killer Flu shutdowns still has a few good years left now?

    Let’s hope not.

  165. 915
    S-Crow says:

    Spoke with an agent last night in Edmonds and their client missed out on a $630K house even after offering $200,000 over suggested retail. Evidently 30 offers according to the agent. How are appraisers handling this craziness if the home is financed? It genuinely meets the definition of crazy. The agent did suggest their client just rent for a while until all this dies down. I never knew the FOMO is soooo strong. Guess what, if the home closes for around $800K, the neighbors who are not really interested or have plan to sell might just say, “screw it! I’m in! List my house! I will sell my house for $815K and see if it sticks. I’ll cash out and deal with the inconvenience of moving for that price.”

    The new normal. Human behavior is quite fascinating.

    Meanwhile, 1/2″ CDX plywood has hit nearly $40/sheet at $39.25 and 2x4x8 studs are at nearly $6/stick.
    Mortgage rates are moving up.

  166. 916
    Erik says:

    RE: S-Crow @ 915
    We need to print more money to patch this problem. I think we will be a stimulus run country for the next couple years at least. Puget sound will go up in price for 3 more years. Hold onto those houses and dump them at the top and then rent. Let’s retire off this bubble!

    You were telling me in since 2015 that we are on unstable ground and are about to crash. Your prediction doesn’t include stimulus, which is a major error.

  167. 917
    Blurtman says:

    RE: S-Crow @ 915 – $800,000! Why, that’s a steal. Soon it will be worth $1 million. Just the other day, the Uber delivery guy was telling me about a nice rambler in Woodinville. $750K but he expects to sell it in a year for $1.2 million. He says go all in on RE!

  168. 918
    Whatsmyname says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 913 – And if you don’t eat, there is no food inflation.

    It’s supply and demand. Eric is much closer. Very large stimuli (in the T’s) put a lot of money supply in the system looking for a return, much more than viable new investments were arising. So the cost of money went down. We are running to the end of that, but have another stimulus of well over $1T on the way. Being more spread out, it will be somewhat more skewed to engendering economic activity, and less so to asset inflation. Nevertheless, pricing pressure on lenders will be a result. Counterbalancing by the Fed tightening is unlikely in the short term for the same reasons as we have seen the last few years. I would guess, they might support nominal interest increases to meet general inflation, but real rates will trend low for a while. Fluctuations are natural, but they’re just noise. Good luck.

  169. 919
    Eastsider says:

    By S-Crow @ 915:

    Meanwhile, 1/2″ CDX plywood has hit nearly $40/sheet at $39.25 and 2x4x8 studs are at nearly $6/stick.

    Check out the historical lumber price chart. Covid shutdown probably severely restricted supply which explained the parabolic rise since March. It will not last and prices will drop as soon as we return to ‘normal’. Now it parallels Texas electric bill or GME stock price. But it is definitely not inflation.

    https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/lumber

  170. 920

    $1.9T Stimulus Incorporated Soon With $15/hr min Wage?

    Lots of opinions; we’ll see if the Fat/Pork Lady deficit sings and I doubt it.

    Ya can’t close the schools down forever and run an economy without restaurants and nurses/teachers going back to work….God prohibit we ‘get in the habit” of no vacation travel and eliminate eating out all together, we developed the habit of cooking at home and staycations now…meanwhile, DOW surges along whether we work or not. It may never return to normal? They don’t need us?

  171. 921
    david2000 says:

    This is my bold predication
    Fed is going to contain yield and nominal rate and let inflation go little higher

  172. 922
    Erik says:

    RE: david2000 @ 921
    Unfortunately, your 6 months late david. The fed said they are going to let inflation run high under a program called “FAIT.” which stands for Flexible Average Inflation Target. That means the Fed is justifying high inflation. The interesting part is to see if it runs away from them.

  173. 923
    ruxpert says:

    Ready The Reset 

    Ikea Is Now Selling Tiny Homes For Broke Millennials 
    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ikea-now-selling-tiny-homes-broke-millennials


    Patti Payne’s Cool Pads: Historic home in Snohomish lists for $2.9M
    https://www.bizjournals.com/seattle/news/2021/02/26/web-patti-paynes-cool-pads.html

  174. 924
    ruxpert says:

    Feb.23
    Home Prices Soar At Over 5 Times The Fed’s Inflation Target In All US Cities
    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/home-prices-soar-over-5-times-feds-inflation-target-all-us-cities

    Seattle rents down over 20% since start of coronavirus pandemic, down nearly 4% month over month
    Jan. 6
    https://www.seattlepi.com/realestate/article/seattle-rents-decline-20-coronavirus-pandemic-15848251.php

  175. 925
    Whatsmyname says:

    By ruxpert @ 924:

    Feb.23
    Home Prices Soar At Over 5 Times The Fed’s Inflation Target In All US Cities
    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/home-prices-soar-over-5-times-feds-inflation-target-all-us-cities

    Key useful information here: Home prices are not part of the Fed’s inflation target.

    They have heard these criticisms at different times over at least half a century. Result is that home prices are not part of the Fed’s inflation target.

  176. 926
    ruxpert says:

    RE: Whatsmyname @ 925

    Whatsmyname says:
    > Home prices are not part of the Fed’s inflation target. <

    Who said they were/are?

  177. 927
    Whatsmyname says:

    By ruxpert @ 926:

    RE: Whatsmyname @ 925

    Whatsmyname says:
    > Home prices are not part of the Fed’s inflation target. <

    Who said they were/are?

    Weird nonsequitor on your part. I didn’t say that anyone said that.

    What do you think Tyler was trying to say by making a post out of the fact that the Fed didn’t include home prices in their inflation target?

  178. 928
    ruxpert says:

    RE: ruxpert @ 832

    Mike Maloney: “They have to steal your purchasing power or the financial system will collapse!”
    https://youtu.be/yB2jTXsJKuQ
    ready for the squeeze to get squeezier, ready to get squashed?
    or
    FED UP!
    https://tinyurl.com/3bfcac5h

  179. 929
    ruxpert says:

    RE: Whatsmyname @ 927

    Whatsmyname says:
    >
    Weird nonsequitor on your part. I didn’t say that anyone said that.

    What do you think Tyler was trying to say by making a post out of the fact that the Fed didn’t include home prices in their inflation target?
    <
    Please check your 'nonsequitors' & reexamine what You think Tryler was saying, especially since you just confessed that no one else, but You said THAT.

    Please check and recheck yer sequitor projector before re-responding ;-)

  180. 930
    Eastsider says:

    Home prices are not part of the Fed’s inflation target.

    Actually, housing is the single largest component of CPI at around 30%. But it is based an imaginary number OER, owners’ equivalent rent – what you think your home would rent for. There is no actual economic data to support it.

    Since the majority are homeowners, they are basically ignoring the real housing costs.

  181. 931
    Whatsmyname says:

    RE: ruxpert @ 929 – That was a sad and factually incorrect garble. I can see why you typically don’t go further than posting an article without direct comment.

    Content of Tyler’s article was to complain that failure to include the home price change in the inflation number wrongfully understates inflation, and therefore creates bad policy. He wishes the Fed to redefine the inflation calculation, and take measures consistent with the higher inflation number.

    My response is that this is not some new argument or revelation to the Fed. They’ve been through many cycles with the decision going the other way. Still, some people will impress themselves with the super reality of this thinking, and in the future bitterly complain about unnatural aberration of the Fed doing what it always does.

  182. 932
    Whatsmyname says:

    By Eastsider @ 930:

    Home prices are not part of the Fed’s inflation target.

    Actually, housing is the single largest component of CPI at around 30%. But it is based an imaginary number OER, owners’ equivalent rent – what you think your home would rent for. There is no actual economic data to support it.

    Since the majority are homeowners, they are basically ignoring the real housing costs.

    Kind of the long way to say that retail home sale prices (what we are talking about), are not part of the Fed’s inflation target :)

Leave a Reply

Use your email address to sign up with Gravatar for a custom avatar.
Your email address will not be published.

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <s> <strike> <strong>

Please read the rules before posting a comment.