NWMLS: Strongest October ever for closed sales

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October market data from the NWMLS is available. Here’s what happened last month in the Seattle-area housing market: Home prices and pending sales fell slightly, but closed sales rose to the highest level ever seen during an October—over 3,000 sales. The previous record for closed sales during an October was 2,922 sales in 2003. October this year saw 20% more sales than the highest October level in the last ten years (2,514 in 2016).

Obviously the pandemic and recession is having virtually zero impact on homebuying demand.

I haven’t yet seen a press release from the NWMLS, so let’s just get into the data.

CAUTION

NWMLS monthly reports include an undisclosed and varying number of
sales from previous months in their pending and closed sales statistics.

Here’s your King County SFH summary, with the arrows to show whether the year-over-year direction of each indicator is favorable or unfavorable news for buyers and sellers (green = favorable, red = unfavorable):

October 2020 Number MOM YOY Buyers Sellers
Active Listings 2,258 -6.7% -37.6%
Closed Sales 3,027 +6.3% +36.0%
SAAS (?) 1.02 -7.0% -4.7%
Pending Sales 3,007 -9.6% +16.0%
Months of Supply 0.75 -12.2% -54.2%
Median Price* $745,000 -1.1% +12.9%

Here’s the graph of inventory with each year overlaid on the same chart.

King County SFH Inventory

Inventory fell 6.7 percent from September to October, and was down 38 percent from last year. We still haven’t hit the all-time low point for the number of homes on the market, and the trend seems to be flatlining somewhat, so we may not hit that point this winter.

Here’s the chart of new listings:

King County SFH New Listings

Good news again for new listings, which were up 30 percent from a year ago. This October saw more new listings than any October since 2007.

Here’s your closed sales yearly comparison chart:

King County SFH Closed Sales

Closed sales rose from September to October, which is not uncommon, but the 6 percent increase was enough to make it the largest October on record for closed sales. Year-over-year closed sales were up 36 percent.

King County SFH Pending Sales

Pending sales fell 10 percent from September to October, and were up 16 percent year-over-year.

Here’s the supply/demand YOY graph. “Demand” in this chart is represented by closed sales, which have had a consistent definition throughout the decade (unlike pending sales from NWMLS).

King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY

Still not a pretty picture for homebuyers, with demand sharply rising and supply still falling. At least the rate of decline in home supply is stabilizing.

Here’s the median home price YOY change graph:

King County SFH YOY Price Change

Year-over-year home price changes have been in the double digits for three months in a row now, gaining 13% in October.

And lastly, here is the chart comparing King County SFH prices each month for every year back to 1994 (not adjusted for inflation).

King County SFH Prices

October 2019: $660,000
October 2020: $745,000
July 2007: $481,000 (previous cycle high)

5.00 avg. rating (90% score) - 1 vote

About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. Tim also hosts the weekly improv comedy sci-fi podcast Dispatches from the Multiverse.

100 comments:

  1. 1

    It’s as if record-low interest rates, and thus lower payments, are helping to drive home prices up despite the pandemic.

  2. 2
    IssaquahResident says:

    I have a question for the community regarding buying a house with cash. Who pays for title insurance and how to put it in the contract?

  3. 3
    ruxpert says:

    RE: IssaquahResident @ 1

    ‘Usually’ Seller pays for title insurance.

  4. 4

    RE: IssaquahResident @ 1

    Seller pays for Owner’s Title. Buyer pays for Lender’s Title. So if no lender…then there is only the seller paid Owner’s Title. There are 3 or more kinds of Owner’s Title. It’s already in our contracts unless we want to upgrade it or downgrade it, which is rare. Not sure what contract you are using.

  5. 5
    N says:

    Interesting to note per the Seattle times the yoy medium price in Seattle is only up 3% vs 12% for king county as Tim reported above.

  6. 6

    The Real Estate in Seattle is HOT says Seattle Times today, so gulp a hot mug down and read the brief:

    “…The Puget Sound-area housing market has never been hotter. Even though prices dipped slightly last month in King County, heated competition is inflaming the market in neighboring counties. See what’s happening near you with our neighborhood-by-neighborhood look. Meanwhile, as homeowners and renters ride out dramatic changes amid the pandemic, we’d like to know how it’s affected where you live…”

    SWE’s take: RV sales are hot too….we’re stuck inside for months with no close social contact in herd groups now. Time to grab up a nice SFH prison cell too? We’re spending FAR LESS money on plane trips or ship cruises and hotels and restaurants; apparently the savings rate has quadrupled too to a high of 34% from about 8% before the Killer Flu:

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/246268/personal-savings-rate-in-the-united-states-by-month/

    Check the savings rate spike graph out for April 2020, it was 33.7%, normally its like 6-8%….

    Good News: The savings rate is still 14.8% today. New car sales figures improving to date too, but still lags the 2019 sales by about 3%. IMO the slow transition or stalled transition to electric cars caused the $80K Land Rover “cross-over” to look almost exactly like a $25-30K Kia; are the older cars more reliable than new now too. New car problems with Ford are faulty 6 speed automatic transmissions [transmission fluid seeps through the seal into the clutch plate]and Kias can’t be driven maximum speed/acceleration without anomalous “shutdown” defects and many don’t restart either. New car Toyota fuel pumps are failing like hotcakes too, causing shutdowns too. The problem with even electric Teslas is the rate of lithium battery fires; its FAR worse than the rate of exploding Pintos:

    “…Tesla cars are 10 times less likely to catch fire than gasoline-fueled cars, the automaker said, citing data from the National Fire Protection Association and U.S. Federal Highway Administration. Lithium-ion batteries, like those in Tesla cars, also ignite more slowly and burn in a more controlled way than gasoline. ..”

    The old cars didn’t do this.

  7. 7
    David says:

    By N @ 4:

    Interesting to note per the Seattle times the yoy medium price in Seattle is only up 3% vs 12% for king county as Tim reported above.

    My guess: Condo selling price seems to be consistently below asking price.

  8. 8
    N says:

    RE: David @ 6

    Except condo prices are up 8%. People are looking for more space for offices etc now that we spend all our time at home.

  9. 9

    The Republican Senate Likely in 2020

    https://wjno.iheart.com/featured/the-morning-rush/content/2020-11-05-latest-gop-likely-to-keep-control-of-senate/

    This means the theoretical or likely now Biden Agenda is lame duck.

    The same thing happened to Trump in 2018 when the GOP lost the House. The main question I have is tax tables for 2021….since phase I lower tax tables end this year even if Trump won…do we now revert to the old Obama tax tables? How could either party get phase II tax tables in place with a lame duck president either way? The Tooth Fairy knows.

    Another factor no one is tracking is loss of college enrollment in 2020 and jobs for the college graduates the last 5 years. The data is vague and misleading or omitted all together, like 2020 college enrollment decline, its just not reported. Period. Check it out, its fog folks….the Indeed wages per capita are much lower than overly optimistic predicted for degreed and undegreed job seekers…

    This is devastating news for small businesses near the U of W: and its not in the news either. Check it out.

  10. 10
    Erik says:

    RE: David @ 6
    I think condos are dragging the numbers down as well. I want to buy fixer condos at the auction long distance, remodel them, rent them, and refinance them with 25% equity. Should be fun.

    The map in that article shows values are down 4% in the area containing rainier valley. I don’t think that is true. In the past year, rainier valley has been a bull. The values could be down because people are buying fixers there? Am I making excuses or is rainier valley going down in value?

  11. 11

    RE: N @ 7

    Work at Home From Your Condo?

    Its a good possibility you’re right…..it just seems grim and like being a prisoner IMO. Can it last? My guess, is likely not…

    The unemployed single young adults are becoming care givers at parents’ homes now [degreed or not degreed], instead of working other scarce high paying jobs besides $10-15/hr? Its likely, but no data out there either…I see plenty of them at my HOA….they walk dogs during the weekdays or run out to say “hi” to me when the see my red Charger by the mail kiosk at 2PM in the afternoon. Help wanted signs all over Kent too and unemployment with 4 million “national” permanent job loss statistics. The data isn’t there but the personal periscope evidence is. It was like 49 degrees out side Wednesday and one of them ran up to me and my car I pulled up to say hi, she wasn’t getting mail either…the Tooth Fairy knows….LOL

    The news tells us almost nothing.

  12. 12
    Erik says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 8
    SWE’s comment looks faded out. Is Tim taking away SWE’s first amendment right so he can prop up his left wing agenda like Facebook and Twitter are doing to their users?

  13. 13

    RE: Erik @ 9

    Are You Ready to Go back to the Old Obama tax tables as Phase I Trump Tax Rates Expire in 2021 [even if Trump is re-elected] as a lame duck with Dem controlled House? Or Dem President that’s lame duck without a controlled Senate majority?

    If ya owe a tax penalty next year, its not going to have a late fee added on by the IRS. The late fees will occur in 2022. It all floats down stream..LOL

    Dig deep Erik, its changing fast and the news omits most of the reasons too…we all don’t have “CASH BAGS” of money to avoid mortgage loans too.

    What a mess.

  14. 14

    RE: Erik @ 11

    I don’t see the fade out, thanks for telling me you do.

  15. 15

    RE: Erik @ 11

    Faded out to me too. Last night they were cutting off the President as he was speaking. It’s a thing now. :)

  16. 16
    N says:

    Has anyone looked at SF real estate. Complete opposite of here (or the rest of the country) – Inventory up 77% YOY.

  17. 17
    David says:

    By Ardell DellaLoggia @ 14:

    RE: Erik @ 11

    Faded out to me too. Last night they were cutting off the President as he was speaking. It’s a thing now. :)

    SWE is faded out to me too. No one should be blocking people’s opinions – even when I don’t agree with it.

    Let the wise be wise and the fools be fools in whatever they write or say. If you stand in the city square and yell your opinions that cannot be muted or blocked – then your opinions are what they are.

    Section 230 needs to be repealed or judicially blocked as un-Constitutional.

    I have no Facebook or Twitter accounts. Trump should have quit Twitter and moved to a new platform like Parler. He has no one to blame but himself for Twitter’s treatment of him.

  18. 18
    David says:

    By Erik @ 9:

    RE: David @ 6
    I think condos are dragging the numbers down as well. I want to buy fixer condos at the auction long distance, remodel them, rent them, and refinance them with 25% equity. Should be fun.

    The map in that article shows values are down 4% in the area containing rainier valley. I don’t think that is true. In the past year, rainier valley has been a bull. The values could be down because people are buying fixers there? Am I making excuses or is rainier valley going down in value?

    Lot’s of murder in Rainier Valley but the location is good for the transition to better outcomes I suppose. 85% of gentrification fails long-term from what I have read though.

    BUT, if the IRR is good for a lower cost condo both in terms of Cash Flow and appreciation versus a condo that only has appreciation to rely upon for a good IRR – I’d go Rainier Valley.

  19. 19
    David says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 10 – I have actually been researching Detroit as an investment target as I once worked extensively in the Michiana area.

    Now I have realized that news of a Detroit rebound is:

    1) total BS.
    2) Population loss is ongoing.
    3) You cannot get a loan there. (I was going to pay cash but I use mortgage approvals to determine if the value is appropriate. I do this by researching security deeds and then check sales price at the tax office/MLS)
    4) Trump, the most pro-manufacturing prez ever, lost by 150,000 votes in MI !!

    And to think I actually agonized over buying a Michigan-built Ford Ranger over a Texas-built Tacoma just 3 months ago. Thank God I went with the Tacoma.

    Michigan – the Land of Almosts. I expect another flood of Michigan refugees down South in the next few years.

  20. 20
  21. 21
    Whatsmyname says:

    RE: David @ 16RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 14RE: Erik @ 11
    I can only guess, but my guess would be that Tim is trying to take back control of his site, and enforcing the ban of totally off-topic posts he pleaded with SWE to respect about a hundred times or so.

    David, does your championing of the unfettered right to speak your mind in the public square extend to BLM and antifa? Btw, This site is private property.

  22. 22
    Eastsider says:

    2BR apartment rent in Seattle – 3 year trend from Zumper

    Nov 2018 – $2,450
    Nov 2019 – $2,300 (-6.2% YoY)
    Nov 2020 – $2,095 (-8.9% YoY)

    Rent has collapsed 30% from the peak at $3,000 in July 2016. People are deserting Seattle.

    Gun shots, screams, sirens — the reality of living in downtown Seattle
    https://www.seattletimes.com/opinion/gun-shots-screams-sirens-the-reality-of-living-in-downtown-seattle/

  23. 23
    David says:

    By Whatsmyname @ 20:

    RE: David @ 16RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 14RE: Erik @ 11
    I can only guess, but my guess would be that Tim is trying to take back control of his site, and enforcing the ban of totally off-topic posts he pleaded with SWE to respect about a hundred times or so.

    David, does your championing of the unfettered right to speak your mind in the public square extend to BLM and antifa? Btw, This site is private property.

    If someone from the BLM or ANTIFA want to commit themselves to their Terrorist & Nazi ways – fine with me.

    I actually ferreted out an ANTIFA guy that worked at a Burien hardware store and got him fired. He started talking and I just kept him talking.

  24. 24
    David White says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 21 – I will admit that SWE could bullet point his arguments succinctly and I would read them start to finish – mostly.

    I’d g get the point anyway.

    As judges often say – the short written brief gets read.

  25. 25
    David White says:

    I got an ant!fa guy f!ired in Burien. They should talk all they want.

  26. 26
    ruxpert says:

    RE: Whatsmyname @ 20

    ACLU Free Speech Event Shut Down by BLM because “Liberalism is White Supremacy”
    https://youtu.be/Fezp8TRPBlM

    Free Speech Group Attacked by antifa/BLM + in San Francisco
    https://youtu.be/8rLV6D_E4-A

  27. 27
    ruxpert says:

    More on the mushrooming nonsense
    hypocrisy / corruption / chaos cancer spreading
    (imagine how such will affect the Economy, RE, etc.)

    WhatsHerFace:
    Welcome to THE GREAT RESET
    https://youtu.be/eirm9mapQyY

    More WhatsHerFace:
    https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCMZjeadL0c2PSix1Gr7mqKw

    ;-)

    btw, has anyone seen the movie: Idiocracy?

  28. 28
    Erik says:

    RE: Whatsmyname @ 20
    I know that’s the argument and I’ve heard that before. I have said some pretty offensive things on here in the past and didn’t get booted yet, so I assumed Tim was pro freedom of speech.

    You are a liberal and you are only agreeing because it supports your side. If SWE spewed a big bunch of liberal lies as CNN, MSNBC, NBC, ABC tells daily, I don’t think the comment would have been faded out. I support fairness and at first glance appears Tim is joining the swamp by suppressing opposing views, but hopefully I’m mistaken. I don’t want to be part of a website that doesn’t do things that correlate with my ethical code. Cheating by blocking opposing views to push your opinion is something I’m not okay with.

    Deerhawk regurgitate liberal propaganda he heard from fake news daily on this site daily and was never suppressed by Tim. SWE is honest and fair. That is something I like.

  29. 29
    Erik says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 14
    I had a different opinion of Tim but I don’t really know him. As you have told me in a transaction, new information comes in and you adjust. I will quietly adjust my opinion and move forward.

  30. 30
    Erik says:

    RE: David @ 17
    Gentrification has done pretty well in Beacon hill and all the neighborhoods north of Rainier Valley. Gentrification seems to be moving south in Seattle.

    When is the last time you were in rainier valley? I stayed there on a blowup mattress in 2019 as that property I bought was being remodeled. It appeared a lot of houses were being repaired and the area was getting nicer. I’ve had 3 people contact me out of nowhere to buy that property just this year so I assumed the area was still hot.

  31. 31
    don says:

    RE: Erik @ 26

    I can read that faded out post of SWE’s on my phone, and there is nothing in it that sets it apart from others of his. I doubt Tim would have raised a finger against it in comparison to the character of some of SWE’s more historically target worthy posts. I’m guessing its a software glitch and not intentional.

    The 1A creates no duty to protect freedom of speech on private sites, as Whatsmyname points out above.
    Any of us can create a site and run it as we choose, unlike a government agency.

  32. 32
    Erik says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 21
    I have a few 2br condos in Seattle and the prices went up in 2018 and 2019. The prices stayed the same so far in 2020. I made no upgrades, I just raised the rent incrementally on my well cared for tenants.

    For landlords, rental increases are something not with paying attention to. It’s not like landlords are gonna go bankrupt losing a few thousand dollars extra per year on their portfolio that increases $250k in value. I described this to you before and you keep posting it. Look at this math…

    $2.5M x 10%(appreciation) = $250k price appreciation

    Now here comes your warning to landlords…

    Say a landlord has a really bad year and loses $5k on rent.

    $250k – $5k = $245k

    The landlord made $245k in value appreciation by doing nothing other than sending their tax stuff provided by their property manager to their CPA. Intelligent landlords don’t care about rental income. They care about buying something with 25% equity and gets close to cash flowing. The whole thing about cash flow being king is a myth. Net worth is king.

  33. 33
    Erik says:

    RE: don @ 29
    Yeah, I’m probably trying to read too far into this.

  34. 34
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Erik @ 30 – If your business model is based on 10% capital appreciation, I wish you luck.

  35. 35
    Erik says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 32
    You are going to hear what you want to hear so I will no longer try to help you understand.

  36. 36
    David says:

    By Eastsider @ 32:

    RE: Erik @ 30 – If your business model is based on 10% capital appreciation, I wish you luck.

    Your saying if Erik gets 10% appreciation per year that is not a good strategy?

    Have you heard of compounding?

  37. 37
    Eastsider says:

    RE: David @ 34 – 10% annual appreciation is wildly optimistic. Based on CS home price index, Seattle’s average annual price gain is 5.1% in the last 3 decades. The CS U.S. National Home Price Index gained 3.45% annually in that period, and the 20-City Composite Home Price Index gained 4% annually since 2000.

    The last housing crash brought prices down by 1/3. If it happens again, will Erik become one of those short sellers losing all their property holdings? Many speculators went bust the last time.

  38. 38

    The Seattle Times and MSM in General Gab On and On About the Same Topic and Stories

    I won’t repeat it.

    Before we draw partisan conclusions on why that comment was faded out by Tim, what was in the comment [you can still read it BTW, so its not like it was blocked completely]:

    The main crux of the “faded” comment is U of W enrollment way down because of F2F classes cancelled? Which would then be logically affecting University District businesses like the U of W book store, Orange Julius, IHOP, Blue Moon Tavern, etc, etc….and this affects home prices eventually in the University District, why wouldn’t it? Perhaps that’s part of the reason savings rates have doubled to 15% to date. We aren’t spending it on tuition anymore?

    I read all the U of W websites on remote learning and “enrollment” impact is omitted. No data. Look for yourself: [BTW, this a Bloomberg story last May, hardly a Conservative MSM source]

    “…Do you remember MOOCs? The initials stand for massive open online courses, and there was a moment, about a decade ago, when they were all the rage in higher-education circles. Some predicted that online courses would become a dominant mode of learning, allowing universities to expand enrollment significantly while lowering their own costs. Although MOOCs are still around—mainly serving nonstudents paying for online lectures from high-profile professors—their impact on higher ed has been marginal. The reason is that students didn’t like online classes…”

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-22/college-students-parents-professors-hate-online-classes

    I didn’t make this up and its non partisan.

    The other part of the faded comment was also innocuous [not hate speech, just statistics during Killer Flu, if they exist at all]

    Phase II tax cuts are not permanent, for almost all households they end in 2025 [BTW I just saw this in writing today, I learn new facts everyday]:

    “…Republicans’ top priority for a second round of tax cuts is to make permanent the tax cuts for individuals that were included in the new tax law on a temporary basis.

    These cuts — such as the lower rates and larger standard deduction and child tax credit — expire after 2025…”

    Good News: They don’t end in 2021, sorry for the error, but honestly now…..did anyone “really” read this before? Tax laws can not be changed by President without House/Senate majority approval. Period. So the Democrat promises are similarly vague and very likely impossible to change until 2025 anyway or perhaps after the 2022 elections….which seems unlikely to me anyway. [The MSM source is The Hill]

    “…Lawmakers put an expiration date on the individual cuts in order to comply with rules that allowed the tax bill to pass the Senate with just a simple majority. Those rules prevent legislation from increasing the deficit after 10 years…”

    Why is this similarly not affecting theoretical Biden future tax legislation to boost real estate sales? Biden’s different? LOL

  39. 39
    justsomedude12 says:

    By Eastsider @ 35:

    RE: David @ 34

    The last housing crash brought prices down by 1/3. If it happens again, will Erik become one of those short sellers losing all their property holdings? Many speculators went bust the last time.

    We know you would like to see a crash Eastsider, but continually thinking that another 2008 is right around the corner will have you hiding in your basement in the fetal position. This is not 2008. Look up recency bias.

    The unemployment rate is currently only 6.9%, and falling. Keep in mind that even in the strongest job market the unemployment rate is still 3-4%. Considering we’re in the midst of a pandemic, things are actually pretty good, and they’re only going to get better. Widely distributed vaccines are likely next year. And the social unrest stuff going on in Seattle will get worked out. These are just blips in the big scheme of things. In a few years I think you’ll look back and realize this.

  40. 40
    Whatsmyname says:

    RE: Erik @ 26 – I am a liberal. I don’t think Tim is a liberal. And Tim allows SWE’s opinions to frequently dominate the blog for weeks at a time, so I don’t think he’s blocking SWE’s “opposing” opinions. Maybe Don was right that it was just a glitch. SWE seems to be testing that theory with post 36, which again has simply no tie to Seattle real estate.

    Deerhawke is a single family builder. His everyday experience supports, and financial survival depends on better sfr market information than just about anyone else here. I thought he was one of, if not the best source of RE information here.

  41. 41

    RE: Erik @ 27

    Sorry if you thought my comment had anything to do with Tim. I’m not sure how you thought I was dissing him. I would never do that. I was saying that IN GENERAL there is a movement to clean up a lot of the nasty discourse on the internet in this Country. Had nothing to do with Tim. This is a thing meaning it is a thing for twitter and facebook and pretty much all places that are being held to a different standard. Something to do with their potentially losing their Section 230 protections.

    Nothing at all to do with Tim. I have no idea why one of SWE’s comments would be not visible. Could be a fluke as someone said.

  42. 42
    Erik says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 39
    Social media is censoring people with conservative viewpoints and I was questioning if Tim is doing that with SWE’s comment. You gave an example of the media censoring a conservative viewpoint and said “that’s a thing now.” Therefore you are saying that you think the comment was censured.

    I’m saying I thought Tim was more free minded and if he is censoring SWE, that would change my perspective. Nobody is “dissing” anyone. I think you and Tim are great, I’m just observing and commenting.

  43. 43
    Erik says:

    RE: Whatsmyname @ 38
    Deerhawke was a wealth of knowledge, and he spiraled into fighting over politics. I tried to pull him out and he just kept fighting people about nonsense politics. I was very disappointed about the whole thing.

  44. 44
    Erik says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 35
    So many holes here and if I had all day, I’d fight you and win, but I’m not going to. You don’t listen to anyone anyway, so there’s no point investing my time into you. I went from a struggling aerospace engineer, saving my paychecks to a much more comfortable financial position in life investing in real estate and I’m in my 30’s.

    The most painful and slowest way to build wealth is paying off your house and investing in your 401k. That’s what we are trained to do, so that’s what you are doing. I will have a more lucrative life than you because you are closed minded.

  45. 45
    Eastsider says:

    By justsomedude12 @ 37:

    We know you would like to see a crash Eastsider, but continually thinking that another 2008 is right around the corner will have you hiding in your basement in the fetal position. This is not 2008. Look up recency bias.

    No. I am not making any forecast here. I’m just saying speculators like Erik only see one side of the equation. Here is a news article from today –

    Yakima property owner Enrique Jevons, one of the plaintiffs, derives his sole income from his 88 rental units…

    He fears if the eviction moratorium goes on much longer and he has to go many more months with this reduced income, his properties will go into foreclosure.

    “I’m becoming very fearful of being put out on the street, losing my properties,” he said.

    Yakima landlord suing governor says he faces foreclosure if eviction moratorium doesn’t end
    https://mynorthwest.com/2288936/eviction-moratorium-suit-landlords/

  46. 46
    ruxpert says:

    The COVID-19 RT-PCR Test: How To Mislead All Humanity Into Accepting Societal Lock-Downs
    https://www.globalresearch.ca/covid-19-rt-pcr-how-to-mislead-all-humanity-using-a-test-to-lock-down-society/5728483

    ====

    Smoking gun: Fauci states COVID test has fatal flaw;
    confession from the “beloved” expert of experts

    The COVID delusion is finished, blown apart

    by Jon Rappoport
    November 6, 2020
    https://blog.nomorefakenews.com/2020/11/06/smoking-gun-fauci-states-covid-test-has-fatal-flaw/

  47. 47
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Erik @ 42 – You have no idea who I am… just sayin’

  48. 48
    Erik says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 45
    You are a 50 something year old male software person with a paid for house that lives in Redmond and invests a large portion of his check in a 401k. You chose a slow and less lucrative path. You’ll retire with around $3M when you are 65 is my guess because you saved your entire life.

    You could have had a lot more a lot sooner if you’d have invested your high income into real estate.

  49. 49
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Erik @ 46 – LOL. I do know a thing or two about RE.

  50. 50
    Erik says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 47
    Based on your comments, you don’t understand real estate investing at all. You wouldn’t be saying things about real estate investing that make no sense if you knew something, right?

    Not trying to be rude, everyone has a strength. I would be very surprised you have any experience flipping, renting, and managing real estate. If you understand real estate, why are you always talking about rents going down killing landlords? Why did you criticize me for advising people to take mortgage forbearance and stockpile cash? Why would you tell me to sell my condo in west Seattle? All comments from someone that is not a real estate investor and has no idea what they are talking about.

    All landlords I know could lose over $100k in cash flow during a crash and be just fine. Most could lose much more and survive. Investors that understand the market pulled money out of their properties and invested it in the stock market at the bottom of the covid crash and are flush with cash right now. Landlords are now hoarding 100’s of thousands in forbearance and you think landlords are sweating losing a few grand while the market is going up over 10% making them loads of cash. You don’t get it and it’s obvious.

  51. 51
    David says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 43 – Disney has $22B in Cash and $41B in Debt.

    I’m thinking Erik may have enough equity to survive.

    The 1/3rd drop in housing prices was reversed.

  52. 52
    Eastsider says:

    By Erik @ 48:

    Not trying to be rude, everyone has a strength. I would be very surprised you have any experience flipping, renting, and managing real estate. If you understand real estate, why are you always talking about rents going down killing landlords? Why did you criticize me for advising people to take mortgage forbearance and stockpile cash? Why would you tell me to sell my condo in west Seattle? All comments from someone that is not a real estate investor and has no idea what they are talking about.

    The only reason you are above water is because current (excess) appreciation is bailing you out. Many speculators, including banks, get in trouble when home prices stall/sink. If your business plan depends on mortgage forbearance, your don’t have a viable plan.

    All landlords I know could lose over $100k in cash flow during a crash and be just fine. Most could lose much more and survive. Investors that understand the market pulled money out of their properties and invested it in the stock market at the bottom of the covid crash and are flush with cash right now. Landlords are now hoarding 100’s of thousands in forbearance and you think landlords are sweating losing a few grand while the market is going up over 10% making them loads of cash. You don’t get it and it’s obvious.

    In the last downturn, there were hundreds, if not thousands, of short sales and foreclosures. It will happen again sometime in future. The pandemic is already hurting some landlords (i.e. potential foreclosures) in the article I posted today. You better pray we don’t lock down for another 6 months. Melbourne just had a (successful?) 112-day lockdown to contain Covid.

  53. 53
    Eastsider says:

    By David @ 49:

    The 1/3rd drop in housing prices was reversed.

    Agreed – only if you survive to live another day (it can take many years.)

  54. 54
    pfft says:

    Nobody mentioning that Trump lost?

    LOL.

  55. 55
    Erik says:

    RE: pfft @ 52
    It’s a sad day for people that care about this country. Trump was the best president of my lifetime and he got taken down by fake news and the swamp.

  56. 56
    David says:

    By pfft @ 52:

    Nobody mentioning that Trump lost?

    LOL.

    Pfft has pulled himself out of another dude long enough to reappear.

    Welcome back Du-Dirty.

  57. 57

    RE: Erik @ 53
    Now its Biden’s Killer Flu; Not Trump’s Anymore

    Assuming that China Killer Flu was used against Trump by pushing case number rates importance way over “normal pneumonia death rates” that occur anyway may likely have a lot to do with Trump’s 2020 loss. Be careful what you pushed/wished for Biden, this means the 2-3 years years of likely benign Killer Flu strain still being tracked as cases is a lock down excuse forever, now haunts the Biden presidency. Trump will gladly hand you the baton. That makes me laugh…LOL

    Yes…Trump got a lot done Erik…but I see Biden unable to do anything [even pass a Killer Flu Stimulus bill too]; he’s starting out on a wrong lame duck foot, with no ways to get future bills passed [Trump did too]. The Dem demonstrations after the election right outside the WH were uncalled for IMO, rude obnoxious winners in my book. Peaceful transition applies to both parties, not just the GOP.

    I was worried about losing like approx $20,000 in extra federal taxes the next 10 years with Biden’s/Obama’s tax tables. That’s not chump change folks, that’s like $30K in gross income…right out of your retirement savings account. That possibility is a complete joke now; with the Senate Control to GOP:

    https://wjno.iheart.com/featured/the-morning-rush/content/2020-11-05-latest-gop-likely-to-keep-control-of-senate/

    Ohhh…and any Dem $2-3T Killer Flu Stimulus Package to fight this “political turmoil” with Dem pork galore added is a complete joke now too. Its called “GRIDLOCK”.

    The fun goes on and on…LOL…Biden has no workable agenda in my book and even if he did, its a complete lame duck joke now too.

    The stocks are surging with that permanent domestic Trump 29% corporate tax rate limit….time to buy equities for the long-term now and I reset my Seattle Area real estate predictions today for 2021-2024 as unchanged now with new facts. Buy them Condos Erik, Trump’s ghost will likely live on forever now anyway…LOL

  58. 58

    The University of Washington Book Store is Closed This Fall:

    https://facilities.uw.edu/finadmin/movingandsurplus/inventory/item/covid-19-change-operations

    Its converted to virtual online; whatever that means….LOL

    University Ghost Town Now?

  59. 59
    Erik says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 50
    We are too far apart. I’m commenting based on very successful personal experience and you are commenting based on something else. I’m going to watch the Seahawks and spend time with the family. Keep saving in your 401k.

  60. 60
    pfft says:

    By Erik @ 53:

    RE: pfft @ 52
    It’s a sad day for people that care about this country. Trump was the best president of my lifetime and he got taken down by fake news and the swamp.

    He is literally the biggest idiot ever to be president. He will leave office probably not having created a single job in 4 years. Even when he was creating jobs he was creating them at a rate lower than Obama’s last few years. He was is one of the worst presidents ever. He will probably lose to Sleepy Joe by 6-7 million votes. Are we going to blame that on California again? He earned his loss.

  61. 61
    OA says:

    By Erik @ 57:

    RE: Eastsider @ 50
    We are too far apart. I’m commenting based on very successful personal experience and you are commenting based on something else. I’m going to watch the Seahawks and spend time with the family. Keep saving in your 401k.

    Erik your approach works but is very risky. If done right you will gain a bunch of net worth really quickly. The downside is if the market tanks (doesn’t have to be 2008 level), you’re overleveraged, and it could get painful. I hope that never happens to you though. You seem to be really convinced of your approach, so stick to your guns.

    My risk appetite is completely opposite. I max out my 401k, save 50%+ of my income and invest into dividend growth stocks. Slow and steady wins the race. No debt either!

  62. 62
    pfft says:

    If you have no debt and no mortgage you are pretty much rich anyways…

  63. 63
    David says:

    By pfft @ 58:

    By Erik @ 53:

    RE: pfft @ 52
    It’s a sad day for people that care about this country. Trump was the best president of my lifetime and he got taken down by fake news and the swamp.

    He is literally the biggest idiot ever to be president. He will leave office probably not having created a single job in 4 years. Even when he was creating jobs he was creating them at a rate lower than Obama’s last few years. He was is one of the worst presidents ever. He will probably lose to Sleepy Joe by 6-7 million votes. Are we going to blame that on California again? He earned his loss.

    Hopefully, you are a programmer and one of the massive influx of Indians Biden is about to import takes your job.

    You’ll be posting from a McDonalds dining room – But at least you will have a Critical Race Theory Training Certificate.

    Karma.

  64. 64
    Erik says:

    RE: pfft @ 58
    We disagree here and we don’t need to argue as I will not change your mind or visa versa. I was a Trump fan long before he was president. Like Deerhawke, I think you’ve been brainwashed by fake news and you think I’m ignorant. Let’s skip that all and move forward making money in real estate.

  65. 65
    pfft says:

    By Erik @ 62:

    RE: pfft @ 58
    We disagree here and we don’t need to argue as I will not change your mind or visa versa. I was a Trump fan long before he was president. Like Deerhawke, I think you’ve been brainwashed by fake news and you think I’m ignorant. Let’s skip that all and move forward making money in real estate.

    Trump was a joke long before he ran for president. He is a joke of a businessman in NY. The people who knew him best knew he was a joke and didn’t vote for him. He lost his home state, Queens(place of birth) and Manhattan. Are you a fan of all his failed businesses and bankruptcies?

    Agree to disagree is a good approach. Enjoy the election loss people!

  66. 66
    Erik says:

    RE: OA @ 59
    I think most the risk is made up in your head. I think adding another rental property is much lower risk than buying stock and much more lucrative. I think of real estate as long money and stocks as short money because it’s higher risk.

    I still put 15% in my 401k and get a 6% company match. I consider 401k my backup plan just in case because I don’t like risk either. Sometime in hopefully not the too distant future I’ll have enough rentals paid off to support my expenses. That’s where risk gets ultra low. With real estate, it’s a matter of time before you get to that point.

    Let’s pretend a scenario… Say I have $2.5M in real estate in King county where prices went up 10% this year. Now pretend I took mortgage forbearance as well. I would make $250k in price appreciation and put $150k in rental income cash into the bank for a total of $400k. So with $150k in the bank and increasing my net worth $400k, you are telling me it’s higher risk? Use your big Phd engineering brain and think about who’s taking more risk. It’s more risky to have 1 stream of income. With real estate, you will have a sizable real estate income in about 10 years.

  67. 67
    Erik says:

    RE: pfft @ 63
    Very well. I’ll respect your opinion.

  68. 68
    OA says:

    By Erik @ 64:

    RE: OA @ 59
    I think most the risk is made up in your head. I think adding another rental property is much lower risk than buying stock and much more lucrative. I think of real estate as long money and stocks as short money because it’s higher risk.

    I still put 15% in my 401k and get a 6% company match. I consider 401k my backup plan just in case because I don’t like risk either. Sometime in hopefully not the too distant future I’ll have enough rentals paid off to support my expenses. That’s where risk gets ultra low. With real estate, it’s a matter of time before you get to that point.

    Let’s pretend a scenario… Say I have $2.5M in real estate in King county where prices went up 10% this year. Now pretend I took mortgage forbearance as well. I would make $250k in price appreciation and put $150k in rental income cash into the bank for a total of $400k. So with $150k in the bank and increasing my net worth $400k, you are telling me it’s higher risk? Use your big Phd engineering brain and think about who’s taking more risk. It’s more risky to have 1 stream of income. With real estate, you will have a sizable real estate income in about 10 years.

    The risk is taking on a lot of debt. Like I said earlier, I think using debt can definitely accelerate one’s net worth pretty quickly, but you need to be careful. I personally sleep better at night knowing that I don’t owe a penny to nobody, never will and hopefully will never have to. Again, your risk appetite is different than mine.

    My approach is dividend growth investing. It’s investing in great quality companies that pay a dividend that has been (and hopefully continue to) steadily increasing. It’s a great way to build cash flow for the future. I’m long term (30+ years) and don’t ever sell my positions. Some think that this approach gives you cash flow at the expense of price appreciation, but this isn’t necessarily true. Typically great companies that pay an increasing dividend perform really well from a price growth perspective (typically beat S&P long term). And I’m not talking about companies that pay a super high dividend yield, as these typically get cut and are not achievable long term.. The dividend yield range that I look for is between 2.5% – 4.5%, I look for strong fundamentals, low debt, some sort of moat, etc. With this approach, even if the stock market were to drop 50%, I would never have to worry about selling any positions and would still be getting cash flow from these steady companies.

    Let’s compare this method to your $2.5m real estate portfolio example:

    Let’s say a $2.5m dividend portfolio that increased by 10% and pays a 4% dividend yield. That would be $250,000 in price appreciation and another $100k in cash flow (that I can either use for myself or re-invest back into my portfolio). Also, there is no debt with this portfolio. That’s a $350k increase to my net worth without me doing any work.
    Back to your $2.5m example, using the forbearance is just a one-off this year so you should leave it out for this analysis.

    I’m not saying my method is more superior to yours, but I know for sure that many families have used this method to build generational wealth as well. Real estate investing is a great thing, but it has to be done right and done patiently.

  69. 69

    DOW at 29000+ Now….They Say Its a Killer flu Vaccine That May Work That Caused the Upswing

    I’ve heard that one many times this year before too:

    6 months ago CBS News Had a Vaccine Slated by September MSM story too:

    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-vaccine-september-oxford-university/

    Lord Only Knows, but one thing is for certain….the medical establishment is making big bucks possibly dragging this Killer Flu vaccine study on for many more months/years…than creating any vaccine. See to believe IOWs.

    https://www.advisory.com/daily-briefing/2020/10/12/coronavirus-vaccine

    What does this mean for Seattle Real Estate sales? Not much to date really. Time will tell how much Seattle RE sales/prices can benefit or crumble:

    “…If a vaccine is approved before the end of this year, it will likely be mid to late 2021 before there is enough vaccine available to offer it to the general population. Based on our historic rate of flu vaccination being less than 50 percent, and legitimate caution about a new vaccine, it is unclear how many people will get the vaccine even if it is available…”

    The medical establishment is vague as Stephen King’s Fog on this issue, no clear answer when…LOL…its like asking Seattle Home owners to lower their prices, same type of profit motivated conundrum….of course they don’t want to.

    The brief contained this tidbit on real estate and coronavirus lock downs past locked down Thanksgiving and Christmas 2020:

    “…Biden today launched his official war on coronavirus, naming a team of doctors and scientists to turn his ideas into concrete plans. On his first day in office, he plans a blitz of executive actions, with early priorities ranging from masks to abortion…”

    SWE’s take: Good luck Biden, especially the alleged Presidential EO to fund the $2-3T coronavirus stimulus package Biden alleges is needed ASAP. The GOP Senate stands in the way of that “pork bill’s” chance.

    What is the latest on the Democrat controlling the Senate anyway?

    We’ll know more this January when they do the Georgia election for 2 senate seats all over again. 2020 results to date that don’t count:

    The GOP had a 3-4 point lead for both seats even before the January reset election BTW.

    Good news: Biden might have won on count; but half the country believes it was stolen by fraud? Add to this conundrum facing Biden is his own party. Time will tell if GOP leaning SCOTUS is needed to clean this conundrum up. The first lawsuit in Penn was released today. Time will tell.

  70. 70
    ruxpert says:

    ?
    Inflation Fairy Tale: Why It’s Deflation We Should Worry About
    https://youtu.be/14I1BdncYVo?t=1477

  71. 71
    The Tim says:

    Hi, you have noticed that I’m doing a bit of work to enforce the comment policy (you know, the one that’s linked right below the comment box?).

    Specifically, I’m fading out comments that violate the rule against “totally off-topic comments.”

    Obviously this is my site, and I could just delete them entirely, but for now I’m just going to fade them like this. Hopefully those who are responsible for the incessant off-topic rambling will take the clue.

  72. 72
    Erik says:

    RE: The Tim @ 71
    Thanks for getting us back on track. This site is more fun when you are involved, so I’m glad to see you taking interest again.

  73. 73
    David says:

    By pfft @ 63:

    By Erik @ 62:

    RE: pfft @ 58
    We disagree here and we don’t need to argue as I will not change your mind or visa versa. I was a Trump fan long before he was president. Like Deerhawke, I think you’ve been brainwashed by fake news and you think I’m ignorant. Let’s skip that all and move forward making money in real estate.

    Trump was a joke long before he ran for president. He is a joke of a businessman in NY. The people who knew him best knew he was a joke and didn’t vote for him. He lost his home state, Queens(place of birth) and Manhattan. Are you a fan of all his failed businesses and bankruptcies?

    Agree to disagree is a good approach. Enjoy the election loss people!

    Obama didn’t create jobs. Obama dug a huge hole and then bragged about filling the hole in. Kind of like you – cept you fill the holes and then unfill the holes.

    Basically, you and Obama are the hole guys.

  74. 74
    Erik says:

    RE: OA @ 68
    Where’d yah get the $2.5M for your portfolio? Did you save 50% of your paycheck your entire life? You could get $2.5M of real estate in 5 years pretty easily and enjoy a higher standard of living before retirement. It’s not worth sacrificing your life so you can retire with some money. Acquiring wealth doesn’t have to take sacrifice, just education.

    Also, Washington stare is non judicial. That means they won’t come after you for the debt, so no reason to be scared of mortgage debt. If you don’t pay your mortgage, they just take the property.

    Real estate investing is the best way to gain wealth if you are starting from zero like I did.

  75. 75
    OA says:

    By Erik @ 74:

    RE: OA @ 68
    Where’d yah get the $2.5M for your portfolio? Did you save 50% of your paycheck your entire life? You could get $2.5M of real estate in 5 years pretty easily and enjoy a higher standard of living before retirement. It’s not worth sacrificing your life so you can retire with some money. Acquiring wealth doesn’t have to take sacrifice, just education.

    Also, Washington stare is non judicial. That means they won’t come after you for the debt, so no reason to be scared of mortgage debt. If you don’t pay your mortgage, they just take the property.

    Real estate investing is the best way to gain wealth if you are starting from zero like I did.

    You get $2.5m in this portfolio by investing over a long period of time. Yes I save more than 50% of my take home pay every month/year.

    Getting $2.5m in your real estate portfolio in 5 years sounds sexy, but 95%+ of it is debt, which means no cash flow until the debt is paid off. In 30 years (hopefully once your tenants have paid out the mortgages on these properties) the cash flow should be pretty nice. But your cash flow here is hindered until the debt goes away. Real estate portfolio value is misleading if you don’t include debt.

    I dabble in both equities and real estate. I’ve built my house from scratch and invest in real estate from time to time, I’m not someone that’s just stating things on here that I’ve read on a blog somewhere. Building wealth takes education, sacrifice, patience, and perseverance. There are no shortcuts.

  76. 76
    Erik says:

    RE: OA @ 75
    If you have 95% debt on a house, there lies your problem. You need to buy and have 25% equity and have no money into the deal. That’s the secret. Then you just keep buying and buying until you have $5M or so in real estate.

    If you had that much real estate, this year you’d put $300k in the bank from mortgage forbearance and your net worth would increase $800k. This is just buy owning rentals and taking forbearance! Savers are losers.

    I think you are hanging out with the wrong people and getting some bad real estate advice. I’ve made more in real estate than I would have made saving in my 401k for my entire life and I’m only in my 30’s. I haven’t even had to be frugal and save. You can do the same thing without wasting all your money on your 401k.

  77. 77
    Erik says:

    RE: OA @ 75
    I don’t know much about investing, but I know how to get wealthy quickly with Puget Sound real estate. I don’t really know what dabbling in equities and real estate means.

    Here’s how to get rich fast with very low risk…

    Buy low with hard money at the auction. Remodel the house or condo. Refinance into a 30 year mortgage with 75% LTV and pull the money out you invested into the deal. Rent the unit out until the price doubles or more and sell it and buy more the same way. When you want to retire, only hold houses without mortgages and live off the cash flow.

    Do that and if you aren’t wealthy in 10 years, you can shame me publicly on this site.

  78. 78
    Blurtman says:

    How will available and effective COVID-19 vaccines impact the RE market? Will a return to the office increase demand for city located RE? Will inventory increase as folks feel able to exit the bunker?

  79. 79
    Redmondjp says:

    By Blurtman @ 78:

    How will available and effective COVID-19 vaccines impact the RE market? Will a return to the office increase demand for city located RE? Will inventory increase as folks feel able to exit the bunker?

    Yes, all very good questions, indeed!

    Let’s take Smart Erik, who doesn’t seem to realize that his ethical fluidity is a double-edged bendy sword that can fold back on itself and stab him in the heart. Let’s say that all of his tenants get super-smart like Erik and take advantage of the eviction moratoriums even while still being able to afford their rent, smartly pocketing all of that cash instead, for months into years. How long is Smart Erik going to be able to make the loan and property tax payments on all of his properties? Can Smart Erik’s tenants out-smart Smart Erik?

    Stay tuned to find out!

  80. 80
    Erik says:

    RE: Redmondjp @ 79
    Renters do not have the benefit of not paying for a year and then resume paying like nothing happened as owners do. Renters get evicted for not paying. If they can’t get evicted at the time, they will when their moratorium light is lifted.

    If I were you, I’d take the moratorium for a year and then sell. Don’t be a hater. Play the game and make as much money as possible.

  81. 81
    redmondjp says:

    RE: Erik @ 80 – I’m not a hater, Erik. But if your tenants become as money-smart as you claim to be, you’re screwed. The way the politics are going in Seattle, you are the bad guy.

    My dad owned four duplexes for 40+ years. I know the game.

  82. 82
    Blurtman says:

    RE: Redmondjp @ 79 – You are describing events that could lead to a potential liqudity issue.

    For example, let’s say every one of Erik’s 4 units are valued at $400,000, and appreciate in value at 6% per year. And let’s say that each rents for $2,000/month. If the renter’s moratorum were to last 12 months, and the renters of each of the 4 units were to take advantage of it, Erik would be losing out on $24,000 per unit per year x 4 units = $96,000 yearly. So as he would likely require this cash flow ro pay his loans, he would have to dip into his savings to continue to pay, or havest equity via a HELOC.

    OTOH, the renters would ultimately have to pony up $24,000 each when the moratorium ends, or flee. But if they stayed and paid up, Erik would be receiving a $96,000 windfall, hopefully with interest, and could pay down his tapped line of credit. But as time moves on, and his units continue to appreciate, he gets more HELOC wiggle room were he to need it. And I think he has made this point, that the gain in asset value, unrealized, of course, but still tappable if needed, more than offsets the loss of rental income. So it is not a profitability issue, but one of liquidity.

  83. 83
    Erik says:

    RE: redmondjp @ 81
    I don’t know that I’m money smart, so I thought you were making fun of me. I don’t have any formal financial education and my parents don’t know anything about money or real estate. I read books and listen to people. My profession is not business.

    Ray Pepper came on here and told everyone to take mortgage forbearance and I know he’s pretty smart. After that I text him and he was kind enough to help me understand the rules and the process showing me I am eligible and I could see it made sense. He also advised me on who to connect with on that auction process and they showed me how to get the hard money loan and refinance it and pull the money out. Then I just kept practicing the process because I kept making more and more money. Now I’ve bought at the auction so many times that I know all the people and just run the process. Ray is smart money, I just know how to listen and follow a process. I was getting pretty tied in at the auction so it’s a little unfortunate I had to move to Louisiana to keep a job. I feel like if I could have kept running the process 5 more years, I could have retired.

    Trump is pro landlord and Biden is against people that play by the rules to create a better life for themselves. I think Biden will make a real estate boom and bust though, which creates lots of opportunity.

    I wish I owned duplexes. Nobody taught me or told me the game so this is all new to me. I’m learning the game and having more capital is a good thing right now because a bust could be on the horizon.

  84. 84
    Erik says:

    RE: Blurtman @ 82
    401k savers that put their extra earned income in mutual funds think that real estate investors are barely squeaking by like them. It’s the exact opposite. If a real estate investors needed $400k for some crazy reason, they could get it. And the 401k investors tell the real estate investors they are high risk. How does this make any sense?

    I would argue the 401k investors that rely on their earned income are at a far higher risk. They live off the scraps their employer feeds them and add to a retirement fund that is hopefully around when they retire. Then, they feed off that fund like a parasite until they die. Investing in real estate is what reduces risk. 401k investors that invest their surplus income in mutual funds and then plan to leech off the extra money gathered until dying is a bad plan.

  85. 85
    OA says:

    By Erik @ 84:

    RE: Blurtman @ 82
    401k savers that put their extra earned income in mutual funds think that real estate investors are barely squeaking by like them. It’s the exact opposite. If a real estate investors needed $400k for some crazy reason, they could get it. And the 401k investors tell the real estate investors they are high risk. How does this make any sense?

    I would argue the 401k investors that rely on their earned income are at a far higher risk. They live off the scraps their employer feeds them and add to a retirement fund that is hopefully around when they retire. Then, they feed off that fund like a parasite until they die. Investing in real estate is what reduces risk. 401k investors that invest their surplus income in mutual funds and then plan to leech off the extra money gathered until dying is a bad plan.

    Erik – I’ve been reading this blog since 2016 and I generally enjoy reading your comments. I’m glad you found a niche in real estate investing. An educated investor that has done his/her homework is well diversified in various asset classes. Real estate, equities (whether 401k or taxable acct, or both), bonds, global markets, etc. You’re free to say whatever you want to say but your comments above are just plain nonsense.

    I’m 32 y.o, don’t have a penny of debt to my name, own my house, have a significant 401k portfolio that I’ve been maxing out right as I started my career 10 years ago, have a 6 digit dividend growth portfolio (taxable account (non-ira or 401k)), and I’m actively looking to buy a condo or two in the next 6 months to rent out. I didn’t inherit any money, my family was dirt poor when we moved to the states in the mid 90s from eastern Europe. From a young age I was always good with money and knew how to put away significant amounts from my paychecks. I can retire today and live comfortably, but I will probably work for the next 10-15 years to make sure that I continue to grow significant cash-flowing assets that I will eventually give to my kids.

    It’s ok that the 401k method or “putting excess money into mutual funds” method didn’t work out for you, but that doesn’t mean it is not a great way to build long-term wealth. I have friends that do exactly what you do, and they’re pretty successful at it as well, kudos to them and to yourself. Just not my cup of tea, my risk appetite won’t let me accumulate significant amounts of debt. Different strokes for different folks.

  86. 86
    Blurtman says:

    RE: OA @ 85 – Here is a useful retirement withdrawal calculator to test your retirement hypotheses: https://www.money-zine.com/calculators/retirement-calculators/retirement-withdrawal-calculator/

    There are quite a few of these tools avaiable online. Of course, it is helpful to know when you may check out.

    If you can swing it, financial advisors are suggesting holding off on tapping Social Security until 70, so as to maximize the amount your surviving spouse may be able to receive.

    Totally agree with you that there are different paths to build wealth, to each their own. And preferences can change, for example, when one approaches retirement.

    Starting and selling a business is also a fairly common path.

  87. 87
    Eastsider says:

    By Erik @ 83:

    I was getting pretty tied in at the auction so it’s a little unfortunate I had to move to Louisiana to keep a job. I feel like if I could have kept running the process 5 more years, I could have retired.

    If your real estate investment is as successful and profitable as you claim – 5yr retirement horizon vs 30yr, why don’t you stay and expand your business? I guess your job is still far more profitable than your RE endeavor in foreseeable future LOL.

  88. 88
    SnP says:

    RE: Erik @ 84

    Erik, I just wanted to say, while I don’t follow the same financial path to F.I.R.E; I appreciate your willingness to continue to share your path since this is a real estate website.

    My husband and I follow the principle of – only invest in what you understand. Thus we go the investment route (never single stocks). Working out well for our goals.

    Keep doing what you are doing if it works for you. They say the more haters you run into the more you are doing it right. We personally stopped providing advice to others because NO ONE wants to put in the hard work, they skip steps, assume all it is to be wealthy is getting lucky. After all isn’t every self-made successful person just lucky?

  89. 89
    SnP says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 87 – Could be many things, but most likely it is to provide benefits to his family.

    Everyone I know with rental properties still worked, then they retired (earlier than 65) and didn’t stress over money because at worst they could sell properties for the equity. At best they can pass on real estate to their kids that generates money creating generational wealth.

  90. 90
    SnP says:

    RE: OA @ 85 – Agreed. Different paths for everyone. Too many mortgages and all of that would have me personally stressed to the max. Therefore we also go the investment route.

    Awesome on the paid off house!

  91. 91
    Erik says:

    RE: OA @ 85
    Yeah, I was kinda trolling because I wanted to debate.

    Maybe I got you mixed up with someone else, but I thought you were a saying at one point a couple years ago that you had a PhD in engineering or were working on one? Am I wrong? Please explain how you got a PhD in engineering, have kids, are only 32, and have saved enough in your 401k to retire. It took me 10 years to get undergrad and master’s degree in engineering while working. I was only able to do that because I stayed single and put the work into it. Either you are a freak of nature or I’m mistaken…

    If you put 50% of your income into your 401k, and have kids, what’s the secret? You must make a lot of money and your wife must work and make good money too? That’s not my situation. Like I’ve said on here, I’m a struggling aerospace engineer and my wife a part time accountant. We don’t make super high incomes.

    Please clarify on the PhD and then explain how you are able to save 50% in your 401k. I’m not saying that you are lying, I just don’t understand how all this was achieved because I got after it, I’m older, and I only have a masters degree.

  92. 92
    Erik says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 87
    My net worth was increasing investing in Seattle real estate. I estimate that in 5 years, my net worth would be high enough to cash it all in and retire if I wanted. Banks don’t lend to people with a high net worth, they lend to people with income. I don’t have that in real estate yet, hence I had to move to stay employed.

  93. 93
    Erik says:

    RE: SnP @ 88
    Imagine you were allowed to take out a $5M dollar margin on mutual funds and didn’t have to pay the debt service. Now imagine if you lost your margin, you can walk away and don’t have to pay your debt back. Sound too good to be true? You can do that investing in real estate.

    That was my persuading argument. You and your husband will do just fine mutual fund investing. I think this 401k investing strategy is intended to keep employees poor enough to continue working for money. My kids are starting out investing in real estate because I don’t want them to work into their 60s. I want to get the word out because I think we are being scammed.

  94. 94
    OA says:

    By SnP @ 90:

    RE: OA @ 85 – Agreed. Different paths for everyone. Too many mortgages and all of that would have me personally stressed to the max. Therefore we also go the investment route.

    Awesome on the paid off house!

    Agreed, all depends on a person’s risk appetite.

  95. 95
    OA says:

    By Erik @ 91:

    RE: OA @ 85
    Yeah, I was kinda trolling because I wanted to debate.

    Maybe I got you mixed up with someone else, but I thought you were a saying at one point a couple years ago that you had a PhD in engineering or were working on one? Am I wrong? Please explain how you got a PhD in engineering, have kids, are only 32, and have saved enough in your 401k to retire. It took me 10 years to get undergrad and master’s degree in engineering while working. I was only able to do that because I stayed single and put the work into it. Either you are a freak of nature or I’m mistaken…

    If you put 50% of your income into your 401k, and have kids, what’s the secret? You must make a lot of money and your wife must work and make good money too? That’s not my situation. Like I’ve said on here, I’m a struggling aerospace engineer and my wife a part time accountant. We don’t make super high incomes.

    Please clarify on the PhD and then explain how you are able to save 50% in your 401k. I’m not saying that you are lying, I just don’t understand how all this was achieved because I got after it, I’m older, and I only have a masters degree.

    Yeah you’re confusing me with someone else. I don’t have a PhD in engineering. I have a bachelor’s from business school.

    I never said I have enough in my 401k to retire, all I said was that I’ve been maxing out my 401k since my first job out of college. I max out my 401k ($19,500 before employer match) every year. You can’t contribute more than that.

    What’s my secret? I’ve always saved more than 50% of my take-home pay. I worked my way through college, didn’t have any loans when I graduated, and had around $50k in savings from numerous side gigs by the time I graduated college. Lived with my parents during college, so commuted all 4 years. I moved out from my parents place when I got married when I was 25. By that time, I was 3 years into my career and didn’t have to pay rent until my wife and I rented our first apartment. We were both working and we’re saving 50%+ of our take home pay after maxing out 401k contributions. We bought land, made architectural plans, got permits approved, and built our first house with cash. Since then, we’re still saving 50%+, have no mortgage, and started putting in most of our money into dividend growth investing (this is not including 401k, this is a taxable brokerage account). Yes, we’re progressing in our respective careers but are now saving even more now since we don’t have a mortgage (I consider my house paying me every month for not having to pay mortgage or rent).

  96. 96
    Erik says:

    RE: OA @ 95
    That’s awesome. I was not able to stay focused like you. I’m not that frugal or disciplined. It’s not a competition, but I’d guess you will likely do better than me because you got such an early start and are able to invest so much since your house is paid off. I’m renting right now… My path has been non linear and your path has been linear.

  97. 97
    OA says:

    By Erik @ 96:

    RE: OA @ 95
    That’s awesome. I was not able to stay focused like you. I’m not that frugal or disciplined. It’s not a competition, but I’d guess you will likely do better than me because you got such an early start and are able to invest so much since your house is paid off. I’m renting right now… My path has been non linear and your path has been linear.

    I think you have a good thing working for you with real estate. I have two close friends that do what you do. One of them does everything locally. The other owns a house here, one in Kentucky, and three in Texas (he has family in all of these locations), he does has minor cash flow Kentucky and Texas but none here. Both of them are pretty careful not to bite off more than they could chew.

  98. 98
    Blurtman says:

    My brother-in-law is in the uper 2% wealth percentile. I asked him how he did it. He doesn’t invest in RE, per se, but only as shelter. Nonetheless, he pocketed around $400k on the sale of his Eastside home. He purchased a new place with cash, using this money as well as money from savings. No mortgage. He said he debated getting a mortgage, especially considering the low rates, and investing the cash in the market, but the psychological benefit of being debt free won out.

    He invests religiously in his 401k, and maxes out his employer’s match. He said he is in it for the long term, and did not cash out in the last Wall Street fraud financial meltdown. But beside that, he starts and sells businesses. He said that in addition to pocketing the purchase price of his company, the acquirer typically wants him to come along, to ease in the transition, and to stay, if he wants, at a very decent salary.

    He is from a very lower middle class background, and frankly is a self made man. I asked him if he thought there is still opprotunity in the USA for folks to rise above their economic situation, and he looked me in the eye, and said basically, that no one is going to give you anything, there are no guarantees. The best you can do is to try and when you get knocked down to get up, learn from the experience, and do it again, and again, but hopefully better. I can’t say that that is bad advice.

  99. 99
    Erik says:

    RE: Blurtman @ 98
    Your brother in law sounds like a real business person. I started buying condos/houses and living in them while I worked remodeling them and drank beer. I made way more than I thought was possible. Then I figured out most the money is appreciation, so I got a leasing agent and CPA and bought more. Then I started watching YouTube because I guess having rentals is a business and there are all kinds of handouts for businesses. I need a real business person like your brother in law to scale and automate my process.

  100. 100
    Erik says:

    RE: OA @ 97
    I do not over extend either. I live in New Orleans now and have rentals in Seattle. I think I’ll buy some cash flow rentals here, and wait for my Seattle real estate to double in value. Then I can own 5-10 rentals here mortgage free. $15000/mo sounds like a pretty nice side income.

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