Seattle Bubble

News & discussion about real estate & the housing bubble in the Seattle area.

Seattle Bubble - News & discussion about real estate & the housing bubble in the Seattle area.

Entries Tagged as 'Pierce'

Puget Sound Counties Interactive September Update

By The Tim on November 2nd, 2009 at 8:00 AM · 5 Comments

Whoops, sorry this is late. It took a little extra time to put together this month, as I finally switched the data over from months of supply to Seasonally Adjusted Active Supply. So, let’s have our September data checkup of NWMLS statistics from around the sound. As usual, courtesy Tableau Software, the Around the Sound update is rocking exclusive interactive data visualizations.

Feel free to download the old charts in Excel 2007 and Excel 2003 format. To get specific info about a certain point on any graph in the post below, float your mouse pointer over the data.

Before we get to the cool stuff, here’s the usual table of YOY stats for each of our seven covered counties as of September 2009.

September 2009 King Snohomish Pierce Kitsap Thurston Island Skagit Whatcom
Median Price 7.9% 11.1% 8.2% 4.6% 2.8% 1.8% 2.0% 8.7%
Listings 19.4% 23.6% 25.8% 25.1% 15.8% 2.0% 4.9% 9.7%
Closed Sales 14.3% 14.6% 12.4% 14.5% 1.5% 11.5% 20.9% 19.3%
Seasonally Adjusted Active Supply 2.0 2.1 1.8 2.0 1.9 2.5 3.0 1.5

Hit the jump for this month’s interactive charts.

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Seattle-Area Foreclosures Appear to Resume Pre SB-5810 Rise

By The Tim on October 15th, 2009 at 6:00 AM · 65 Comments

Time for our September update on Foreclosure activity in King, Snohomish, and Pierce counties. First up, the Notice of Trustee Sale summary:

September 2009
King: 796 NTS, up 31% YOY
Snohomish: 421 NTS, up 42% YOY
Pierce: 479 NTS, down 11% YOY

Not surprisingly, as the newly-mandated 30-day pipeline begins to fill up, foreclosures seem to be resuming their upward trend across the Sound.

It’s interesting to note that as of the end of the day yesterday, Trustee Deeds (the actual repossession of a house at auction by a bank) in King County were on track to hit five or six hundred in October, well over a hundred higher than the previous high, set in July (and ten times the levels we were seeing in 2007). But we’re getting ahead of ourselves. For now let’s focus on this month.

Here’s a simple look at how September’s foreclosures compare to the same month last year in each of the three counties:

Notices of Trustee Sale

Next let’s look at the percentage of households that received a Notice of Trustee Sale (based on household data for each county from the American Community Survey, assuming linear household growth between surveys):

Households per Foreclosure

King County came in at 1 NTS per 990 households, Snohomish County had 1 NTS per 626 households, and Pierce had 1 NTS for every 622 households (higher is better).

According to foreclosure tracking company RealtyTrac, Washington’s statewide foreclosure rate of one foreclosure for every 264 households was 23rd worst among the 50 states and the District of Columbia (up from 30th last month as the short-term effects of SB 5810 begin to wear off). Note that RealtyTrac’s definition of “in foreclosure” is much broader than what we are using.

Following are the usual charts of King, Pierce, and Snohomish County foreclosures from January 2000 through September 2009. Click below to continue…

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Puget Sound Counties Interactive August Update

By The Tim on September 25th, 2009 at 6:00 AM · 5 Comments

The time has come for our regularly-scheduled late-month check on NWMLS statistics from around the sound. As usual, courtesy Tableau Software, the Around the Sound update is rocking exclusive interactive data visualizations.

Feel free to download the old charts in Excel 2007 and Excel 2003 format. To get specific info about a certain point on any graph in the post below, float your mouse pointer over the data.

Before we get to the cool stuff, here’s the usual table of YOY stats for each of our seven covered counties as of August 2009.

(Note: Keep in mind that certain NWMLS definitions were modified beginning July 2008 that affect the reported number of active listings and pending sales (and therefore the “months of supply”). The net result of this change is that active listings post 07/08 will appear lower, pending sales higher, and months of supply lower than prior to 07/08. See this post for more details.)

August 2009 King Snohomish Pierce Kitsap Thurston Island Skagit Whatcom
Median Price 11.5 11.8% 8.8% 12.5% 3.8% 5.3% 13.7% 0.5%
Listings 20.6% 25.9% 24.0% 27.4% 17.2% 5.0% 0.8% 10.5%
Closed Sales 5.0% 8.1% 5.2% 4.7% 12.2% 2.4% 7.1% 10.3%
Months of Supply 4.1 4.6 4.4 5.2 4.6 11.3 8.4 6.1

Hit the jump for this month’s interactive charts.

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Trustee Notices on Pause Thanks to New State Law

By The Tim on September 10th, 2009 at 6:00 AM · 18 Comments

Time for our August update on Foreclosure activity in King, Snohomish, and Pierce counties. First up, the Notice of Trustee Sale summary:

August 2009
King: 614 NTS, up 7% YOY
Snohomish: 329 NTS, up 20% YOY
Pierce: 430 NTS, down 7% YOY

As we predicted last month, Senate Bill 5810 seems to be resulting in a bit of a lull in foreclosure activity as the extra 30-day pipeline fills up. Keep in mind that the new law only applies to owner-occupied homes, with mortgages minted between 2003 and 2007. Still, I am surprised that there were as many foreclosures last month as there were.

Here’s a simple look at how August’s foreclosures compare to the same month last year in each of the three counties:

Notices of Trustee Sale

Next let’s look at the percentage of households that received a Notice of Trustee Sale (based on household data for each county from the American Community Survey, assuming linear household growth between surveys):

Households per Foreclosure

King County came in at 1 NTS per 1,282 households, Snohomish County had 1 NTS per 800 households, and Pierce had 1 NTS for every 692 households (higher is better).

According to foreclosure tracking company RealtyTrac, Washington’s statewide foreclosure rate of one foreclosure for every 1,033 households was 30th worst among the 50 states and the District of Columbia (down from 13th last month thanks to SB 5810). Note that RealtyTrac’s definition of “in foreclosure” is much broader than what we are using.

Following are the usual charts of King, Pierce, and Snohomish County foreclosures from January 2000 through August 2009. Click below to continue…

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Puget Sound Counties Interactive July Update

By The Tim on August 21st, 2009 at 6:00 AM · 16 Comments

It’s time for our regularly-scheduled check on NWMLS statistics from around the sound. Once again, courtesy Tableau Software, the Around the Sound update is rocking exclusive interactive data visualizations.

Feel free to download the old charts in Excel 2007 and Excel 2003 format. To get specific info about a certain point on any graph in the post below, float your mouse pointer over the data.

Before we get to the cool stuff, here’s the usual table of YOY stats for each of our seven covered counties as of July 2009.

(Note: Keep in mind that certain NWMLS definitions were modified beginning July 2008 that affect the reported number of active listings and pending sales (and therefore the “months of supply”). The net result of this change is that active listings post 07/08 will appear lower, pending sales higher, and months of supply lower than prior to 07/08. See this post for more details.)

July 2009 King Snohomish Pierce Kitsap Thurston Island Skagit Whatcom
Median Price 13.7% 14.3% 11.5% 5.9% 5.8% 2.4% 6.3% 4.4%
Listings 19.4% 25.2% 25.0% 27.6% 17.4% 4.5% 0.7% 11.7%
Closed Sales 10.6% 18.4% 16.7% 23.5% 6.3% 5.2% 0.9% 3.2%
Months of Supply 4.4 4.7 4.7 5.3 4.6 11.2 9.3 5.9

Hit the jump for this month’s interactive charts.

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Legislation-Induced Foreclosure Spike Begins to Wane

By The Tim on August 13th, 2009 at 8:23 AM · 28 Comments

Time for our June update on Foreclosure activity in King, Snohomish, and Pierce counties. First up, the Notice of Trustee Sale summary:

July 2009
King: 1,248 NTS, up 71% YOY
Snohomish: 620 NTS, up 75% YOY
Pierce: 803 NTS, up 48% YOY

The effect of the new state law that was passed in April (Senate Bill 5810) began waning in July, as the number of foreclosure notices backed off their insanely-high June volumes.

The new law essentially makes it more difficult for a lender to foreclose on owner-occupied homes with mortgages minted from 2003 through the end of 2007, and adds an extra 30 days to the process. Since a notice of trustee sale comes 30 days after the notice of default, a surge in default notices filed before the bill became law in late July could result in a continued surge in notices of trustee sale through this month.

After that, it is likely that we will see a lull in apparent foreclosure activity for a month or two as the newly-legislated time in the pipeline fills up. My guess is that by the end of this year we will probably be back to a more “normal” post-bubble foreclosure level of ~1,000 notices of trustee sale per month.

Frequent commenter Kary L. Krismer also explained the situation with SB 5810 over on the SREP blog last week.

Here’s a simple look at how July’s foreclosures compare to the same month last year in each of the three counties:

Notices of Trustee Sale

To give the numbers some more context, here’s a comparison of July closed sales reported by the NWMLS and July notices of trustee sale:

Notices of Trustee Sale & Closed Sales

We’re back to more people buying homes than losing them in all three counties, at least.

Next let’s look at the percentage of households that received a Notice of Trustee Sale (based on household data for each county from the American Community Survey, assuming linear household growth between surveys):

Households per Foreclosure

King County came in at 1 NTS per 630 households, Snohomish County had 1 NTS per 424 households, and Pierce had 1 NTS for every 370 households (higher is better).

According to foreclosure tracking company RealtyTrac, Washington’s statewide foreclosure rate of one foreclosure for every 511 households was 13th worst among the 50 states and the District of Columbia (up from 17th last month). As usual, this was still better than the national average of 355 households per foreclosure. Note that RealtyTrac’s definition of “in foreclosure” is much broader than what we are using.

Following are the usual charts of King, Pierce, and Snohomish County foreclosures from January 2000 through June 2009. Click below to continue…

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