Guess the Price Round 8: We Have a Winner!

Just over a month ago we launched our latest price-guessing contest: Guess the Price Round 8: Wallingford Craftsman. Thirty readers made guesses this round before the home went pending.

3724 Corliss Ave N, Seattle, WA 98103Today’s “Guess the Price” guest star is 3724 Corliss Ave N in the southern third of North Seattle’s Wallingford neighborhood, close to the Burke-Gilman Trail and Gasworks Park.

This round’s home hit the market on Tuesday with an asking price of $599,950.

Our home this month is not bank-owned, a short sale, or a flip. It sits in Wallingford, where the median price of single-family homes sold in August was $682,000.

Your guesses ranged from $469,999 to $650,000. The average price guessed was $595,317, and the median guess was $599,950. Here’s the plot of all the guesses, with the final close price & date marked in green:

Price Guesses: 3724 Corliss Ave N, Seattle, WA 98103

According to the NWMLS, the home sold on October 29 (just five weeks after listing), with a closing price of $620,000. The closest guess was a dead-on guess of $620,000 by SeattleJo. Congratulations!

Here’s the difference between the average guess and the final sale price in our contests so far:

  1. Your guesses were 2.2% lower than the sale price.
  2. Your guesses were 5.5% higher than the sale price.
  3. Your guesses were 10.5% lower than the sale price.
  4. Your guesses were 10.0% higher than the sale price.
  5. Your guesses were 2.8% higher than the sale price.
  6. Your guesses were 2.4% lower than the sale price.
  7. Your guesses were 13.6% higher than the sale price.
  8. Your guesses were 4.0% lower than the sale price.

After going way too optimistic on the last one, the crowd slightly underestimated this time around.

Stay tuned in the next few weeks, when we’ll kick off another round of Guess the Price.


About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

3 comments:

  1. 1

    Not only was SeattleJo spot on pricewise, he or she was only one day off on the closing date.
    Either a very skilled prognosticator, or maybe they are the buyer.
    ” I had to do it, just to win Seattle Bubble’s ” Guess the Price” contest.

  2. 2
    Seattlejo says:

    RE: Ira Sacharoff @ 1

    Haha. Not the buyer, but I do live in the hood. The original price seemed quite low when compared to what other houses in the area were being sold at.

  3. 3
    Joe M says:

    How did Zillow estimates fare in these eight rounds?

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