Guess the Price Round 8: Wallingford Craftsman

It’s been far too long since our last game of “Guess the Price,” so let’s kick off a new round. Here’s how the game works. I’ll describe a home that’s currently on the market, giving you as many pros and cons as I can, and you guess what the final sale price will be when/if it sells.

Be sure to enter your real email address into the form when you leave your guess in the comments, because the winner gets a $25 gift card to the restaurant chain of their choosing. Don’t worry, I’m the only one that can see the emails that are entered. The winner is the person whose guess is closest to the final sale price, above or below. If there is a tie, whoever guessed closer to the correct closing date will be declared the winner.

Contest closes to entries at midnight the morning of October 10th, or when the home goes pending, whichever comes first. Note that some past rounds have gone pending in just a few days or even hours after the contest opened, so get your guess in early!

3724 Corliss Ave N, Seattle, WA 98103Today’s “Guess the Price” guest star is 3724 Corliss Ave N in the southern third of North Seattle’s Wallingford neighborhood, close to the Burke-Gilman Trail and Gasworks Park.

This round’s home hit the market on Tuesday with an asking price of $599,950. It last sold 18 years ago in January 1996 for $171,000, so today’s asking price represents average annual appreciation of around seven percent. For reference, the Case-Shiller index for Seattle has gained roughly 4.75 percent per year over the same period, a rate that would put the current value of this home at around $400,000.

Our home this month is not bank-owned, a short sale, or a flip. It sits in Wallingford, where the median price of single-family homes sold in August was $682,000. Here’s the listing agent’s description:

Classic 1909 Craftsman bungalow sited on a seasoned, landscaped, level yard. Formal entry, beautiful refinished hardwood & fir floors, high ceilings, original & restored woodwork, extraordinary original wood mullion windows. Delightful kitchen opens to back deck & yard. Excellent location, walk or bike to Burke Gilman Trail, Lake Union & public boat launch, restaurants, cafes, theaters, the UW, Fremont, downtown… everything.

3724 Corliss Ave N, Seattle, WA 98103Built in 1909, this 1-story home (with basement) sports 2 bedrooms and one full bathroom. All of the finished space is on the main floor, while the basement is unfinished and contains just the washer/dryer and lots of wide open storage space. [Update: According to a Redfin agent insight, the basement is “only accessible from exterior of home.” The Redfin agent also noted “updated copper plumbing and electrical.”]

According to the King County Department of Assessments, 990 of the home’s square feet are above ground, with an additional 990 in the basement. Note that the MLS listing is displaying the square footage as 1,980, which includes the entirety of the unfinished (and from the looks of the photos, short) basement. This misleading information is built by design into the NWMLS system.

3724 Corliss Ave N, Seattle, WA 98103Inside, the home looks to be very nice condition. If the windows in the living room and dining room are not original to the home, they are well-crafted to fit in with the original style. In the main living areas the wood trim is all unpainted and looks very nice. From the photos, the hardwood floors look to be in good condition as well.

The kitchen looks like it has plenty of counter space as well as a decent amount of cabinet space. The appliances all look to be relatively new and of decent quality. The countertops do not appear to be any of the currently trendy materials, but they do seem to be in good shape.

The biggest problem with the kitchen is the layout. The sink and most of the counter space is on the opposite side of the room from the refrigerator and the oven, which is oddly placed in a recessed corner of the room with no immediately adjacent counters.

3724 Corliss Ave N, Seattle, WA 98103Off the back of the home there is a small yard as well as a modest deck. A large tree takes up a good amount of space right in the middle of the yard. Due to the home’s location on the block and the layout of the surrounding lots, this home has five immediate neighbors, four of whom have back yards that look right into this home’s back yard.

The exterior of the home appears to be just as well-kept-up as the interior. From the photos the paint looks relatively new. The small front yard looks well-landscaped. Unfortunately, while the listing indicates that the home includes off-street parking, that parking appears to take the form of uncovered space on a driveway whose street access is shared with the neighbor to the south. The garage that can be seen on the right side of photo #21 in the listing appears to belong to the neighbor.

There is an open house scheduled for this Sunday from 1:00 PM to 4:00 PM, so if you’d like to see the home in person or judge the “open house foot traffic” before you place your guess, there’s your chance.

Overall, both the house and the location seem very nice. The current list price feels a bit high to me, but at least one similar home nearby sold for $690,000 just a few months ago, so it’s not outside the realm of possibility.

Summary of 3724 Corliss Ave N

  • Pros
    • well-maintained inside and out
    • close to Gasworks Park & the Burke-Gilman Trail
    • nice hardwood floors & wood trim
    • lots of kitchen counter & cabinet space
    • nice modern appliances
    • updated plumbing and electrical
  • Cons
    • shared driveway
    • no covered parking
    • odd kitchen layout
    • relatively small yard
    • back yard borders four neighboring lots
    • basement only accessible from the exterior of the home

So, what say you? How much will this home sell for, and when will it sell?


About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

49 comments:

  1. 1
    Dave0 says:

    I’m gonna go with $575,000, closing on October 15th.

  2. 2
    Brady says:

    Another Pro: Walk to Westward
    $550k

  3. 3
    James says:

    Full asking price, 10/31

  4. 4
    Shoeguy says:

    I have every faith in manic buyer behavior during housing bubbles.

    $599,950 closing on October 17th.

  5. 5
    Eden says:

    $605,000 on November 5th.

  6. 6
    Erik Heiberg says:

    $582,000 – 2014.11.02

  7. 7
    Brad Moore says:

    I think the market is still crazy enough, and Wallingford still enough of an “it” neighborhood.
    $607,000

  8. 8
    wreckingbull says:

    Dear God, that kitchen. WTF went wrong there? Did they misinterpret the ‘magic triangle’ as the ‘magic trapezoid’? Also, no stainless please. This is not a Quadrant home in Maple Valley.

    I will say 610K. I’d much rather pay 610K here than what 610K buys in Ballard.

  9. 9
    Christian Wathne says:

    So its really a 2br 1ba 990sqft house with a basement and tiny yard? Not super appealing to me.

    My guess is 580k, offer accepted on Monday the 29th with a 30 day close putting the closing date to October 29.

  10. 10
    UrbanDweller says:

    $589,950 on October 8th.

  11. 11

    588,000, barked my dog. Unless she was saying ” Give me some of that meat.”

  12. 12
    SeattleJo says:

    $620k on 10/30

  13. 13
    Brooke says:

    615k

  14. 14
    Erik says:

    I will say 610,001. I’d much rather pay 610,001 here than what 610,001 buys in Ballard.

    In your face Wreckingbull!!

  15. 15
    minitheden says:

    630 10/31

  16. 16
    Bob Washere says:

    im guessing the owner will get three offers on monday and close net 30-days. There will be some back and forth from the inspection. So closing October 28th. The house will sell for $585k but there will be some concession baked for repairs but really just to keep the listed sale value high.

    Houses right off of 45th are driving those comp numbers, although the house is right next to the Burke gillman, seems to have a nice view from the street, is still freeway assessable and is very close to elementary schools.

    So many tech jobs getting added to this region, expect to see more Bay Area transplants boosting housing prices.

  17. 17

    $611K, 30 Nov 2014 Closing

    Do to bank delays because its likely a mortgage payment loan with jitterry banks. Would an investor cash bag buy it up with like only $2000/mo rent? Not.

  18. 18
    JTB says:

    615,000 closes 10/28. Although the Z-estimate is only 491,137 and because that is an accurate representation of the market I am concerned my estimate is too high……

    http://www.zillow.com/homes/3724-Corliss-Ave-N-Seattle,-WA-98103_rb/

  19. 19
    Deerhawke says:

    The lot alone is worth between $400 and $450K. The median home in this area is nearly $700K. Townhouses in lower Wallingford are going for in the sixes and even sevens. It photographs well and has a bit of period charm.

    The only downside is that they put it on the market at the wrong time of year and things are just that much less charming in the rain.

    This is a median house for the neighborhood. I think the agent understands the house has some issues (small-ish, bad kitchen, low ceilings in the basement) but he/she is underpricing it a bit to get the competitive juices flowing.

    It may depend on the weather. But… I am going to bet that they get a nice sunny weekend and we will see a bit of competition from tech buyers who have watched too many pimp-my-house shows.

    $650,000
    It will be tied up in a week and close the second week of October.

  20. 20
    nize says:

    pros:
    -off-street parking
    -not a flip
    -established neighborhood
    -desirable location

    cons:
    -old ass house
    -one bathroom
    -no garage
    -no space

    $565k closing october 30.

  21. 21
    Shoeguy says:

    By JTB @ 18:

    615,000 closes 10/28. Although the Z-estimate is only 491,137 and because that is an accurate representation of the market I am concerned my estimate is too high……

    http://www.zillow.com/homes/3724-Corliss-Ave-N-Seattle,-WA-98103_rb/

    DUDE! No Zillow links in front of The Tim!!!

  22. 22
    Mike says:

    $635K closing in 45 days. There’s not much available in Wallingford at this price point. The closest comp closed at $690K… but this one seems to be missing a few of the upgrades in that home. Ultimately I think this one depends on how much the systems have been upgraded, and there’s no information about that in the listing description or photos. If everything was upgraded and the basement finished I could see this home going for $725K.

  23. 23

    The answer to this, particularly the price part, likely depends on something no one here can assess–the buyer. Are they negotiating out of fear? For example, did they already lose out on two other houses getting outbid? A seller who gets such a buyer is a very lucky seller.

  24. 24
    Alex says:

    Unfortunately I think it’s slightly underpriced given the location and lack of inventory in this area.

    $608,500 – cash, closing on 10/6

  25. 25
    Jeff says:

    With low basement ceilings, this is a sub 1000 sq ft home with a funky kitchen. I’m guessing they’ll take offers on Monday but with us going into fall, I imagine they’ll take what they can get, even if it’s not at asking instead of dragging this out.

    $560K. Closing 10/28.

  26. 26
    Dina says:

    $624,950 and closing 10/30

  27. 27
    BacktoBasic says:

    554k, closing nov 1st

  28. 28
    Tim McB says:

    655k closing Oct. 30th.

  29. 29
    Troy Thiel says:

    574,254 11/7/14

  30. 30
    The Tim says:

    The listing was updated with an insight from a Redfin agent who toured the home. I’ve added an update to the post, and added one pro and one con.

  31. 31

    By The Tim @ 30:

    The listing was updated with an insight from a Redfin agent who toured the home. I’ve added an update to the post, and added one pro and one con.

    How does Redfin get away with that without being fined?

  32. 32
    The Tim says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 31 – VOW rules.

    Here’s what you see if you’re not logged into an account on which you’ve agreed to Redfin’s terms:

  33. 33

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 31

    Redfin can share info with customers and clients the same as we can. It’s only when people pretend to be a client so that they can make the private agent to client information public, that it becomes an issue. If too many people do that, likely Redfin will be forced to drop the feature, and that would be a shame. The people who post the info publicly are not Redfin, they are Redfin “customers”.

    If you tell your client something and your client posts it on twitter and on their blog…what would you do? What if they said “Kary Krismer told me that 123 Blank Address is overpriced” on twitter or on their blog? This is basically like that. It’s not the agent or Brokerage doing it…it is the agent or Brokerages “customer” repeating publicly what the brokerage told them “in confidence”.

  34. 34
    David B. says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 23 – Yeah, I ran into this phenomenon with two condos on Bainbridge. The first one got snapped up with a full-price all-cash offer within a day so I lost out on it. Then three weeks later its next-door neighbor went on sale. Exact same floor plan except it had been smoked in so was going to need all the carpet replaced plus a super-thorough deep cleaning and repainting to be habitable by a non-smoker. The price? $31K more.

    And it sold too, at full price, within days. Not to me, of course.

  35. 35

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 33 – Well, first the idea that everyone who logs into Redfin is a client/customer is a bit absurd. What they really have is an area that requires a password, but getting access doesn’t make them a client. And I really doubt that Redfin wants them to be considered clients if all they’re doing is looking at the website.

    But this was reportedly a comment by a Redfin agent, not a customer. So it doesn’t fit your Twitter example of someone repeating something I said.

    Seems to me they’re playing a dangerous game, particularly if the listing is listed as “prohibit blogging.” Interestingly though, there are no rules that even mention blogging, so they apparently added a field to the listing at some point, without making a corresponding rule! Sort of like the issue you raised recently about smartphones which act as Supra keys. They added a device to our work tools without amending the rule to adapt. Seemingly though it would violate the rule against advertising another listing.

    Edit: I guess I’m wrong-their TOS reads in part: “You are entering into a lawful consumer-broker relationship with Redfin as defined by applicable state law.” They are crazy IMHO wanting to create such a relationship with anyone who clicks on a button. I wonder if they’ve ever been added to a malpractice suit in a situation where a buyer is damaged buying a property, where they found the listing on Redfin but then buys through another agent? I would think such a lawsuit would be especially valid if the damages in any way pertained to a comment made by a Redfin agent on the listing.

  36. 36
    The Tim says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 35 – Kary what you’re talking about is the basic concept of the “Virtual Office Web” (VOW), as established by the Department of Justice settlement with NAR. Most MLSs across the country have VOW rules that allow a brokerage to say anything to their customers online that they would be allowed to say if the person walked into their office.

    There are actually two steps you have to take on Redfin to get access to the Agent Insights.

    1. Create an account.
    2. Click the link in the email they send you that explicitly spells out the terms you mentioned above, indicating that you agree you are “entering into a lawful consumer-broker relationship with Redfin as defined by applicable state law.”

    Believe me, they vetted this quite thoroughly with the law and the various MLSs before launching it. Also FYI, the NWMLS specifically is on record supporting it:

    Asked for comment, Northwest Multiple Listing Service President and Chief Executive Officer Tom Hurdelbrink said: “Redfin’s new ‘Agent Insight’ service, where Redfin sends e-mails to its registered users offering comments on listed properties, complies with NWMLS Rules and Regulations.”

  37. 37
    ARDELL says:

    RE: The Tim @ 36

    Correct, and as I said. What I was subtly hinting at in my analogy to Kary was that your reposting that here becomes the problem, the same as my or Kary’s clients publicly posting what we say to them. If you support Redfin, and you obviously do, you might want to rethink that. You don’t have to of course, but in the long run it could create problems for them.

  38. 38

    RE: The Tim @ 36 – Maybe Redfin is a tech company after all, for they seemingly want to apply technology to things without thinking things out. Seemingly they have a client relationship with buyers (and sellers?) on thousands of transactions on which they get no compensation! That would make me lose sleep. Why do you think Craig and I go out of our way to avoid creating an attorney/client relationship when touching on legal issues?

    Disclaimer: The information above does not constitute legal advice. A party seeking legal advise must contact an attorney who will agree to represent and advise them.

    I have a few more concerns not related to NWMLS rules, but don’t really think it would be proper to disclose them publicly. Let’s just say I won’t be creating a webpage that allows random people to create agency relationships with me, so that I can then post things about active listings which can only be seen by those how create such a relationship and log in.

  39. 39
    Zeek says:

    $595k October 23rd.

  40. 40
    Alex says:

    $590k closing on November 7th!

  41. 41
    mmmarvel says:

    $622,000 closes on 10/22/14.
    In the Houston area (even in a good neighborhood) it would be lucky to fetch $130,000.

  42. 42

    By mmmarvel @ 41:

    In the Houston area (even in a good neighborhood) it would be lucky to fetch $130,000.

    Yes, that would be lucky. It would allow you to move out of Texas! ;-)

    (Just a joke–although if you’d said El Paso I would have been serious.)

  43. 43
    Mike says:

    By mmmarvel @ 41:

    $622,000 closes on 10/22/14.
    In the Houston area (even in a good neighborhood) it would be lucky to fetch $130,000.

    Likewise if it were in the Kent area.

  44. 44
    redmondjp says:

    By Mike @ 43:

    By mmmarvel @ 41:

    $622,000 closes on 10/22/14.
    In the Houston area (even in a good neighborhood) it would be lucky to fetch $130,000.

    Likewise if it were in the Kent area.

    In Detroit they couldn’t even give it away . . .

  45. 45

    RE: redmondjp @ 44

    This string of “if it were in…” reminds of when I go to Bothell to list/price a house and the owner wants to talk about what the price would be if the house were in Bellevue. :)

  46. 46
    nize says:

    sadly, most people still don’t understand that properties in desirable areas command more $$, supply and demand, economics of scale, etc. etc.

  47. 47
    mmmarvel says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 42:

    By mmmarvel @ 41:

    In the Houston area (even in a good neighborhood) it would be lucky to fetch $130,000.

    Yes, that would be lucky. It would allow you to move out of Texas! ;-)

    (Just a joke–although if you’d said El Paso I would have been serious.)

    Not a problem, I realize it was a joke. However, I spent 50 years in the Portland area, I don’t miss the rain and grey skies at all. I’ll probably die in Texas and I’m glad to be here.

  48. 48
    The Tim says:

    About an hour ago, the listing was updated to pending status. Entries are now closed.

  49. 49
    Tim McB says:

    Seattle Joe for the win! Nice guess, and only one day off.

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