Case-Shiller: Seattle Home Prices Flat August to September

Let’s have a look at the latest data from the Case-Shiller Home Price Index. According to July data that was released this morning, Seattle-area home prices were:

Up less than 0.1 percent August to September
Up 11.0 percent YOY.
Up 6.4 percent from the July 2007 peak

Over the same period last year prices were up 0.2 percent month-over-month and year-over-year prices were up 8.2 percent.

Seattle home prices as measured by Case-Shiller just barely hit another new all-time high in September, inching up just a fraction in September.

Here’s a Tableau Public interactive graph of the year-over-year change for all twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities. Check and un-check the boxes on the right to modify which cities are showing:

After edging up to #5 in August, Seattle’s rank for month-over-month changes dropped to #17 out of 20 in September.

Case-Shiller HPI: Month-to-Month

Hit the jump for the rest of our monthly Case-Shiller charts, including the interactive chart of raw index data for all 20 metro areas.

Despite underperforming in September compared most other cities and the same period a year prior, Seattle’s year-over-year price growth was the largest in the nation. In September, none of the twenty Case-Shiller-tracked metro areas gained more year-over-year than Seattle. From February through August Portland had been in the #1 slot above Seattle.

Still more proof that the Northwest will never stop being literally the envy of other states.

Six cities hit new all-time highs again in September: Boston, Seattle, Charlotte, Denver, Portland, and Dallas.

Here’s the interactive chart of the raw HPI for all twenty metro areas through September.

Here’s an update to the peak-decline graph, inspired by a graph created by reader CrystalBall. This chart takes the twelve metro areas whose peak index was greater than 175, and tracks how far they have fallen so far from their peak. The horizontal axis shows the total number of months since each individual city peaked.

Case-Shiller HPI: Decline From Peak

In the 110 months since the price peak in Seattle prices are up 6.4 percent.

Lastly, let’s see how Seattle’s current prices compare to the previous bubble inflation and subsequent burst. Note that this chart does not adjust for inflation.

Case-Shiller: Seattle Home Price Index

Check back tomorrow for our monthly look at Case-Shiller data for Seattle’s price tiers.

(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 2016-11-29)

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About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. Tim also hosts the weekly improv comedy sci-fi podcast Dispatches from the Multiverse.

200 comments:

  1. 1
    ronp says:

    Can someone explain to me the strength of the Portland OR market? Seems like employment growth there is nothing like we have, but demand is great regardless. Lower supply I guess?

    I predict a Trump recession in 18 months, albeit a very shallow one and it recovers in time for that idiot to be reelected easily in 2020.

  2. 2
    GoHawks says:

    RE: ronp @ 1 – good tech jobs and lower prices. Just like we are an “affordable” alternative to SF/Vancouver B.C. so is Portland to Seattle.

  3. 3
    Formerpdxguy says:

    Portland has alot of wealthy transplant retirees. In many ways its more expensive then here and wages are lower. The big bonus is no sales tax but they have income taxes. Housing is a little cheaper i guess but not by much.

  4. 4
    justme says:

    Signs of things slowing down. A paltry 2000 jobs in ‘Aerospace and information (including software)’. ‘The state’s in-migration has hit negative numbers for the first time in over four years,’

    http://www.madisonparktimes.com/Content/Default/Breaking-News/Article/Real-estate-forecast-2017/-3/364/30711

    The Madison Park Times in Washington. “The year 2016 is one for the record books. Home values saw double-digit appreciation in 2016, with the median home price in King County up 14.6 percent, according to the Northwest Multiple Listing Service. It’s not just Seattle that’s experiencing soaring home prices. All across Washington, home prices are rising faster than in any state in the country. Amidst all the record-setting positive news, there is reason for caution on horizon. The latest jobs estimates suggest the economy may be slowing down.”

    “‘What concerns us is the fact that three of the five key industries appear to be applying the brakes,’ according to Seattlebusinessmag.com. ‘Aerospace and information (including software) contributed 2,000 jobs during the three-month period, but construction, wholesale and retail trade, as well as professional and business services, which have a combined workforce of 689,800, added nothing.’”

    “Metrostudy’s second quarter 2016 survey of the Seattle housing market shows that the first signs of the slowdown have begun to show up: slowing job growth along with a dramatic change in migration numbers. ‘The state’s in-migration has hit negative numbers for the first time in over four years,’ said Todd Britsch, Regional Director of Metrostudy’s Seattle region. Anecdotally, I’m seeing fewer bidding wars. More surprising, I’m noting a number of price reductions on listed homes.”

  5. 5
    Brian says:

    That bubble graph is scary. The last bubble was shooting up and then it shot straight down. Very little warning.

    re Portland: It looks like they don’t have much in the way of software companies. There’s Intel w/ about 19500 employees a bit to the West in Hillsboro. Portland’s biggest software employer appears to be Mentor Graphics w/ 900 something employees. Might be the next hot spot for a big tech company to set up shop.

    It is nice that it is relatively close to Seattle. I think it makes it easier to relocate there without being too far away from family in Seattle. The geography and weather is also very similar. They have all the outdoor activities that Seattleites love.

  6. 6
    sleepless says:

    By ronp @ 1:

    …it recovers in time for that idiot to be reelected easily in 2020…

    Arrogant and corrupt SOB – yes, idiot? I don’t think so… Idiots were the people who believed Trump would bring about the change, he is not much different from Nobama, in fact, Trump is republican Nobama.

  7. 7
    pfft says:

    By sleepless @ 5:

    By ronp @ 1:

    …it recovers in time for that idiot to be reelected easily in 2020…

    Arrogant and corrupt SOB – yes, idiot? I don’t think so… Idiots were the people who believed Trump would bring about the change, he is not much different from Nobama, in fact, Trump is republican Nobama.

    you know who trump is going to have as Treas Sec? A Goldman Sachs banker.

    http://www.businessinsider.com/trump-to-choose-steven-mnuchin-for-treasury-secretary-2016-11

    He’s a Trump guy so of course one of this companies is being accused of discriminating against minorities in regards to granted mortgaged.

    how’s draining the swamp going for you? wish hillary had won yet?

  8. 8
    Bob The American says:

    Oh shut up about Trump, you freaking crybabies. Trump won! Now get over it.

    Nobody comes to this site to hear Seattleites whine about Trump.

  9. 9
    Blurtman says:

    RE: pfft @ 6 – What about Elaine Chao? She had the worst record of job creation as Labor Secretary perhaps of all time. Not sure if Hoover had a Labor Secretary but Chao couldn’t have been much better.

    Any additional predictions from the infallible Nate Silver. Pfft!

  10. 10
    Macro Investor says:

    Portland is a first class city with an NBA team, legalized pot and growing high tech industry.

    Seattle is fast becoming the Detroit of the west. The NBA saw the signs and ran away. Former manufacturing powerhouses like Boeing now with one foot in China, one foot in South Carolina, and the brain in Chicago. Microsoft, a former tech powerhouse, now relegated to giving it’s most important product away for free — with FEW TAKERS. Amazon still barely profitable after nearly 2 decades in business, treadmill-running employees driven to suicide. Legalized pot dwarfed by a frightening meth epidemic and homeless/RV people camping in the most desired neighborhoods. High taxes for a futile attempt to break the worst traffic in North America.

    And someone has the temerity to ask why is Portland growing faster than Seattle?

  11. 11

    By Brian @ 4:

    That bubble graph is scary. The last bubble was shooting up and then it shot straight down. Very little warning..

    That’s because the decline in prices wasn’t directly related to the rise in prices here (as opposed to being indirectly related to the rise of prices elsewhere). And even if a decline was based on local factors, you wouldn’t necessarily see a warning in the historical data.

  12. 12
    jon says:

    Amazon is grabbing market share at any cost and building a technology platform that no one else can match. Then as new technology gradually improves to make shopping at home preferable to going to the store, Amazon will provide best shopping experience, and then they can raise their margins. Same with automation in the warehouse and delivery operations. But I agree that they often burnout their employees.

  13. 13
    pfft says:

    By Blurtman @ 9:

    RE: pfft @ 6 – What about Elaine Chao? She had the worst record of job creation as Labor Secretary perhaps of all time. Not sure if Hoover had a Labor Secretary but Chao couldn’t have been much better.

    Any additional predictions from the infallible Nate Silver. Pfft!

    you don’t really understand odds do you? he gave Trump a 30% chance to win.

  14. 14

    By Blurtman @ 9:

    RE: pfft @ 6 – What about Elaine Chao? She had the worst record of job creation as Labor Secretary perhaps of all time. Not sure if Hoover had a Labor Secretary but Chao couldn’t have been much better.

    I assume that’s using the same analysis pfft often uses, which bases the start or stop point statistics on the start of “The Great Recession.” I’d prefer to look at how she did year to year (assuming that you think Labor Secretary has a heck of a lot of control over employment numbers which I’m not sure is correct).

    I would add I’ve yet to hear anyone blame the Secretary of Labor for “The Great Recession.”

  15. 15

    By pfft @ 13:

    By Blurtman @ 9:

    Any additional predictions from the infallible Nate Silver. Pfft!

    you don’t really understand odds do you? he gave Trump a 30% chance to win.

    I’m not sure that means what you think either! There was a time election night (maybe around 7 or 8) when Nate looked extremely disheveled. Clearly he was taken by surprise.

  16. 16
    markettimer says:

    RE: Brian @ 5

    it won’t really happen. they have a state income tax, comrade.

    that 8% hit to wages hurts and is a big brake on economic development and makes people much more reluctant to locate somewhere.

  17. 17
    Doug says:

    RE: ronp @ 1 – 18 months? Based on what? The bond market says that will not happen.

  18. 18
    sleepless says:

    By pfft @ 7:

    By sleepless @ 5:

    By ronp @ 1:

    …it recovers in time for that idiot to be reelected easily in 2020…

    Arrogant and corrupt SOB – yes, idiot? I don’t think so… Idiots were the people who believed Trump would bring about the change, he is not much different from Nobama, in fact, Trump is republican Nobama.

    how’s draining the swamp going for you?

    So much for empty promises. Draining the swamp of old swamp dwellers and re-filling the swamp with the new ones. Trump is no different from other republicans, like Pence, Romney, etc… All members of the same globalist circle

    wish hillary had won yet?

    Are you kidding? I hope so, otherwise it just shows what an clueless idiot you are. Klinton not winning is the ONLY good outcome of this election, the bad outcome is that Trump won. Unfortunately, as expected, Trump peddled back on most of his promises, including prosecution of Klintons family for their corruption and crimes.

    I somehow got an impression that by criticizing Trump you assume I am going to give a credit to the corrupt Democrats (Klinton specifically) that have been ruining this country for decades. I am against the both establishment parties. Klintons, Nobama, Bushes and now Trump are the part of the “same ol” system. Take off your delusional glasses already!

  19. 19
    sleepless says:

    By pfft @ 13:

    By Blurtman @ 9:

    RE: pfft @ 6 – What about Elaine Chao? She had the worst record of job creation as Labor Secretary perhaps of all time. Not sure if Hoover had a Labor Secretary but Chao couldn’t have been much better.

    Any additional predictions from the infallible Nate Silver. Pfft!

    you don’t really understand odds do you? he gave Trump a 30% chance to win.

    The only reason Trump won is that most people were sick and tired of the “establishment” aka Nobama, Klintons and mainstream republicans like Bushes, Romney, Ted Cruz, etc. People were fooled to believe that Trump would bring about changes, that I have stated many times before he even won – not going to happen. Look, if you are not a part of the gang, you are not allowed in. Look at Ron Paul, you can get an idea of the outsider. The last election, the only outsider was Darrell Castle and look how much he won. Trump has never been an outsider, he was a wolf in sheep ‘s clothing. And look, Killary Rotten Klinton lost, get over it, it is over for the klintons syndicate, courtesy of WikiLeaks. Klintons are bared for life to enter Washington DC. Trump will suck for the remaining 4 years…

  20. 20

    By sleepless @ 18:

    Klinton not winning is the ONLY good outcome of this election, the bad outcome is that Trump won.

    That sums it up nicely, and also explains why I was very disappointed months ago.

    BTW, did Trump ever explain what he meant by “drain the swamp?” To me that doesn’t mean throw everyone out. It means expose what is underneath the water. As any fisher-person knows, what is under the water might be good or bad.

    If he meant throw everyone out, wouldn’t he have said: “Fill in the swamp?”

    I can see how maybe some things would concern people (e.g. Goldman Sachs), but some seem to take the promise to mean to not hire anyone with connections to government or business. That would only leave him with the list of nominees I previously posted elsewhere (all but one of which were Celebrity Apprentice contestants):

    Department of State—Andrew Dice Clay
    Department of the Treasury—Penn Jillette
    Department of Defense–Dennis Rodman
    Department of Justice–Rod Blagojevich
    Department of Agriculture—Snoop Dogg
    Department of Labor—Kate Gosselin
    Department of Transportation—George Takei
    Department of Energy–Gene Simmons

  21. 21
    sleepless says:

    By jon @ 12:

    Amazon is grabbing market share at any cost and building a technology platform that no one else can match. Then as new technology gradually improves to make shopping at home preferable to going to the store, Amazon will provide best shopping experience, and then they can raise their margins. Same with automation in the warehouse and delivery operations. But I agree that they often burnout their employees.

    Amazon is not the only game in town. They have a lot of competitors. I also try not to use amazon whenever I can. I use ebay, BestBuy, local Costco, overstock.com, wayfair.com. It is up to the people to decide whether amazon succeeds or not. I always give my business to the “competitors”, unless there is no product I am looking for or the competitor’s price is higher. BTW, many companies who sell on amazon sell same products cheaper on their own websites. Shop around and you will discover that amazon is not even remotely the cheapest place to buy. If you are a lazy ass consumer who needs “to talk” to the app to order stuff, and cannot use a browser to do some search for better deal, then yes, I guess, amazon that is then.

  22. 22
    sleepless says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 20:

    By sleepless @ 18:

    Klinton not winning is the ONLY good outcome of this election, the bad outcome is that Trump won.

    If he meant throw everyone out, wouldn’t he have said: “Fill in the swamp?”

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 20 – To me drain the swamp the would mean trowing out the whole departments like Department of education, department of transportation, department of HUD, department of energy, department of commerce, DHS, DSHS, and many others. Eliminate agencies like NSA, DEA, FDA and many others. Cut spending by 50% to department of defense. And the most important, but it is just a dream of course, get rid of the FED and IRS, but that is the last thing to happen and would probably require civil war / second revolution in this country.

  23. 23
    pfft says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 14:

    By Blurtman @ 9:

    RE: pfft @ 6 – What about Elaine Chao? She had the worst record of job creation as Labor Secretary perhaps of all time. Not sure if Hoover had a Labor Secretary but Chao couldn’t have been much better.

    I assume that’s using the same analysis pfft often uses, which bases the start or stop point statistics on the start of “The Great Recession.”

    don’t ever remember doing that but whatever that’s never stopped you.

  24. 24
    Eastsider says:

    By markettimer @ 16:

    RE: Brian @ 5

    it won’t really happen. they have a state income tax, comrade.

    that 8% hit to wages hurts and is a big brake on economic development and makes people much more reluctant to locate somewhere.

    You might have forgotten that CA has both income and sales taxes. OR has only income tax.

    You might also want to compare cost of living and other factors. Your dollar will likely go further in Portland than in Seattle. Just sayin’.

  25. 25
    David B. says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 15:

    By pfft @ 13:

    By Blurtman @ 9:

    Any additional predictions from the infallible Nate Silver. Pfft!

    you don’t really understand odds do you? he gave Trump a 30% chance to win.

    I’m not sure that means what you think either! There was a time election night (maybe around 7 or 8) when Nate looked extremely disheveled. Clearly he was taken by surprise.

    Most other forecasters gave Clinton even higher odds of winning. Nate Silver’s 538 didn’t do that badly, in comparison.

  26. 26
    GoHawks says:

    “The Seattle technology industry is dominated by information technology firms focused on cloud computing and those focused on internet retailing. Tech hiring in Seattle has been so competitive that the average hourly pay rate for an IT worker is now $10 higher than the national average. The outlook for tech hiring remains strong as firms continue to locate to the market to take advantage of the proximity to industry leaders. This is evidenced by the increase in venture capital flows to the market over the past 12 months.

    “Seattle has lowered its dependence on the aerospace industry from historical levels, but current cuts will still have an impact on the market. The job losses, along with the eventual loss of income, will be a negative to future economic activity.

    “Population growth in Seattle is projected to remain at nearly twice the national rate. This pace is impressive given the current size of the Seattle metro area, at around 3 million residents. The combination of strong job growth and rising incomes is projected to push household formation up in 2017, which will increase demand for both single- and multifamily housing. The multifamily market will need the higher level of demand since the market will add 5 percent to its existing inventory.”

  27. 27
    Doug says:

    Seeing big gains in November. I’m predicting Seattle will again lead the nation when the October-to-November numbers come out in a couple of months.

  28. 28
    Brian says:

    Personal feeling is that there was a huge rush when mortgage rates jumped to find a place and lock in a rate. Inventories dropped fast. The past week it seems like the active-to-pending has slowed a tad and the pending-to-active has increased a tad.

    Wonder if some people that went under contract a month ago are suddenly finding they can’t get financing approval with the higher debt-to-income ratio. Most of these listings I’m talking about went pending about 30 days ago.

  29. 29
    Doug says:

    Gov’t wiping away millennial’s student loans so they’ll now have more money to buy homes! Bullish!

    http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-to-forgive-at-least-108-billion-in-student-debt-in-coming-years-1480501802?mod=e2fb

    I should be expecting a $50k check for my student loans that I paid off, right? That only seems fair.

  30. 30
    Brian says:

    RE: Doug @ 29
    That isn’t what you think it is. From what I understand:
    One, $108B is only 10% of student loan debt.
    Two, this is an existing program.
    Three, these people still have to make mandatory payments (depending on their income) for 10,15,20,25 years. When that time period is up, they can be forgiven the rest of the loan amount. This is the 10th year since the program was started, so some of those who got loans 10 years ago will be having the remainder of their loans forgiven. This will continue every year from now.

    It will help some, but not to the degree you are hoping.

  31. 31
    jon says:

    By sleepless @ 21:

    Amazon is not the only game in town. They have a lot of competitors. I also try not to use amazon whenever I can. I use ebay, BestBuy, local Costco, overstock.com, wayfair.com. It is up to the people to decide whether amazon succeeds or not. I always give my business to the “competitors”, unless there is no product I am looking for or the competitor’s price is higher. BTW, many companies who sell on amazon sell same products cheaper on their own websites. Shop around and you will discover that amazon is not even remotely the cheapest place to buy. If you are a lazy ass consumer who needs “to talk” to the app to order stuff, and cannot use a browser to do some search for better deal, then yes, I guess, amazon that is then.

    Those alternatives are definitely there, and I hope it is enough to stop any anti-trust nonsense from Trump. But Amazon has access to much more customer data than competitors, and that data allows Amazon to provide better recommendations, etc., which improves the shopping experience. You can hunt down that same information yourself, but then you are expending your own labor instead of letting Amazon’s servers do it for you. It comes down to the value you place on your time.

  32. 32
    redmondjp says:

    RE: jon @ 31 – Are you seriously suggesting that Amazon’s recommendations for other krap to buy makes for an improved shopping experience? That’s a laugh riot.

    I do shop there, but often find that Amazon prices are higher than even what you can buy in a local box store. Other times, it’s the same price, and I’ll use Amazon because of the convenience.

  33. 33
    sfrz says:

    Household debt hits record levels, 6 million peeps have stopped paying their car loans, bubbles popping in Australia, China… what could go wrong? Everything is awesome! http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-11-30/household-debt-hits-124-trillion-subprime-loan-delinquencies-hit-highest-6-years-ny-

  34. 34
    David B. says:

    By Macro Investor @ 10:

    Seattle is fast becoming the Detroit of the west. The NBA saw the signs and ran away. Former manufacturing powerhouses like Boeing now with one foot in China, one foot in South Carolina, and the brain in Chicago. Microsoft, a former tech powerhouse, now relegated to giving it’s most important product away for free — with FEW TAKERS. Amazon still barely profitable after nearly 2 decades in business, treadmill-running employees driven to suicide. Legalized pot dwarfed by a frightening meth epidemic and homeless/RV people camping in the most desired neighborhoods. High taxes for a futile attempt to break the worst traffic in North America.

    LOL, “Detroit of the West” more accurately describes Portland. Still not that accurately overall, but Seattle runs rings around Portland when it comes to high tech job opportunities. There’s more high tech jobs in Downtown and SLU alone than there are in the entire Portland metro area. I base this on being a tech worker in both cities.

    Plus salaries in Portland lag significantly behind those in Seattle. Yes, housing is cheaper there, but not that much cheaper. Portland appeals to companies that want to get employees who will put up with crap pay and crap benefits, because it enables them to live in Portland. That’s because aside from the lousy local economy, Portland is a very livable city, and there’s enough people who will put up with earning significantly less to live there.

    Myself, I didn’t find it a good deal. I’d rather have the more generous leave times you tend to get in Seattle, and work for companies where management has more of a clue (two of my three worst bosses were in Portland). If eight hours of every workday sucks, it doesn’t really matter how nice the rest of where you live is; life overall tends to suck.

  35. 35
    Som says:

    Observashions:
    1. Oh the 1000 sq ft Ballard lots with 3 floor homes. A room on each. Little shaky shaky and they come tumbling down.
    2. Rain and cold are here. So yearn the Californians to go back to their land of the sun. And they remind their old friend stay away stay away…
    3. Interest rate and mortgage went up the hill. Buyers fell down while inventory not down and prices came tumbling after.

    I see black bears.

  36. 36
    MGSpiffy says:

    What I wish there was solid data for is the sources of money buyers are bringing to the table.

    How many buyers are coming in with a small to modest amount for the down payment, and at what price points are they buying vs those with significant cash to throw at a purchase?

    It seems that if you don’t already have equity from a previous sale, a windfall event (tech co stock?), a variable income source that occasionally pays our massively (finance?) or some other source of a large amount of cash (overseas buyers?), then good chunks of the market are not accessible to people who work ‘regular jobs’ – even the good paying tech ones – but have only recently been able to seriously save up for a down payment.

    To them, and I am one of them, it’s like chasing the sunset. The horizon is moving away faster than we can move. For example, we saved $36,000 of our after-tax dollars last year, but the houses we would like to target have gone up in price more than that. A very modest property that was $360k last year, appreciating in price the 11% YoY mentioned above is now $400k , and the size of a mortgage we would have to take out has gone up despite the furious saving.

    In our specific case, the houses we desire are more in the $550-$700k+ range, so staying put renting has some appeal. But when you rent, you don’t have control. Twice in the last 3 years, the homes (necessary when you have mixed gender kids) we were renting have been sold out from under us, and comparable supply in the same area has been ridiculously tight, unless it has an incredibly high price (or as we like say: play spot the new buyer trying to cover his mortgage payment).

    So that’s why I am curious about the financial makeup of the buyers we’re competing with. Two six-figure tech jobs aren’t cutting it, and it’s not for several other couples we know. Is this a trend that will get worse? seems like it…

  37. 37
    Eastsider says:

    10-yr Treasury hit 2.45% this morning. On July 8, it was at 1.366%. This was an increase of 80% in 5 months! This means that 30-year mortgage loan rate will likely hit 4.25% this week.

    Pending sales might increase temporarily due to buyers locking in lower rate before the recent spike. But a steep decline in pending home sales is baked in. As a result, Seattle home prices will likely stall in 2017. It may even decline depending on interest rate development.

  38. 38

    By pfft @ 23:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 14:

    By Blurtman @ 9:

    RE: pfft @ 6 – What about Elaine Chao? She had the worst record of job creation as Labor Secretary perhaps of all time. Not sure if Hoover had a Labor Secretary but Chao couldn’t have been much better.

    I assume that’s using the same analysis pfft often uses, which bases the start or stop point statistics on the start of “The Great Recession.”

    don’t ever remember doing that but whatever that’s never stopped you.

    We all know you have a short memory. The reference was to your trying to deny a lack of a rise in the deficit under Obama because technically the spending started before he took office, together with the federal government’s fiscal year.

  39. 39
    pfft says:

    Trump’s Treasury pick foreclosed on a 90-year-old woman … over 27 cents
    http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/12/1/1605951/-Trump-s-Treasury-pick-foreclosed-on-a-90-year-old-woman-over-27-cents

    Trump is re-stocking the swamp.

    But remember, emails.

  40. 40

    RE: justme @ 4
    My Toastmasters Club Meets Today at Boeing Field

    Across the street from the air museum….there are just one or two Boeing folks left, most of the club is recently retired [some in their 50s] or working outside of Boeing. They butcher axed the visitor crew too and guards; replaced with outside contractors.

    My neighbor had 20 years at Microsoft, axed a month ago [he lives on a single income and he has 4 kids].

    Stealth layoffs in mass?

  41. 41
    ess says:

    By Eastsider @ 36:

    10-yr Treasury hit 2.45% this morning. On July 8, it was at 1.366%. This was an increase of 80% in 5 months! This means that 30-year mortgage loan rate will likely hit 4.25% this week.

    Pending sales might increase temporarily due to buyers locking in lower rate before the recent spike. But a steep decline in pending home sales is baked in. As a result, Seattle home prices will likely stall in 2017. It may even decline depending on interest rate development.

    Housing prices can stall or even decline for all sorts of reasons, but compared to recent historic interest rates, current rates are very low. Even if they rise 1-2 percent over the next few years, they are much lower than in many recent years when there was strong housing price increases. Reviewing those rates over the past 40 years will provide an interesting perspective on what 30 year mortgage rates actually were over that time period.

    http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/pmms30.htm

  42. 42
    Brian says:

    RE: MGSpiffy @ 36

    I’m one of your competing buyers. Single, tech job, living w/ parents in order to save. Only have about a 15% down payment right now. I’m saving about $67% of my income toward a down payment and still can’t keep up with rising home prices, and I’m only looking in the $300-350K range. Down payment only helps so much when the prices are going up 10% a year. Add on a .625% rise in mortgage rates to your monthly payment, and they’ve really gone up more like 15%.

    I suspect investors (foreign & national) are buying the stuff over around $600k and dual high-income couples like you are settling for cheaper stuff in more remote areas. Single income buyers like me or lower-income couples, especially if they rent, are left in the dust, relegated to small condos, or larger condos in remote areas.

  43. 43
    Doug says:

    RE: MGSpiffy @ 36 – Wait, what? 2 six-figure jobs aren’t cutting it?

    If you can’t save a ridiculous amount of money (and qualify for a large mortgage) on 2 six-figure incomes then you need to stop everything and spend every waking hour reading Mr. Money Mustache. Probably watch Fight Club too.

    Don’t tell me real estate is appreciating too fast for you to keep up. Clearly your spending habits are increasing too fast for you to keep up with real estate.

  44. 44

    RE: MGSpiffy @ 36 – A lot of people in your lower price range are just putting less money down. 3% if they can.

  45. 45
    pfft says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 38:

    By pfft @ 23:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 14:

    By Blurtman @ 9:

    RE: pfft @ 6 – What about Elaine Chao? She had the worst record of job creation as Labor Secretary perhaps of all time. Not sure if Hoover had a Labor Secretary but Chao couldn’t have been much better.

    I assume that’s using the same analysis pfft often uses, which bases the start or stop point statistics on the start of “The Great Recession.”

    don’t ever remember doing that but whatever that’s never stopped you.

    We all know you have a short memory. The reference was to your trying to deny a lack of a rise in the deficit under Obama because technically the spending started before he took office, together with the federal government’s fiscal year.

    it’s not a technicality, it actually happened. you just laid out the scenario in your “attack” on me. the rise in the deficit was caused almost exclusively by a plunge in tax revenue due to the Bush Great Recession. I didn’t know that one time was a pattern? apparently in karyland it is.

  46. 46
    Brian says:

    RE: Doug @ 43

    I think he or she mentioned they have kids. And maybe they are saving for retirement or other things. I was doing that, until I realized that saving only 45% of my after-tax income wasn’t cutting it, so I had to drop retirement saving to the bare minimum for now.

  47. 47
    Eastsider says:

    By ess @ 41:

    Housing prices can stall or even decline for all sorts of reasons, but compared to recent historic interest rates, current rates are very low. Even if they rise 1-2 percent over the next few years, they are much lower than in many recent years when there was strong housing price increases. Reviewing those rates over the past 40 years will provide an interesting perspective on what 30 year mortgage rates actually were over that time period.

    http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/pmms30.htm

    Home prices have become elevated largely due to QEs and ZIRP (~80% increase in 5 years?) Housing and bonds are subject to interest rate movement. When interest rate goes up, bond prices drop. Prices of the 30 year T-bond have dropped about 16% from the peak about 5 months ago, , even when the yield is still near historical low. So a 1-2% increase in 30-year interest rate can easily move prices by 25%!

  48. 48
    ess says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 47

    Absolutely correct. This is why potential buyers should not only take prices into consideration, but the cost of borrowing money when making a determination if they should purchase a residence.

    Interest rate increases don’t operate in a vacuum. There are other factors that must be considered including but not limited to:
    Many buyers are paying all cash – other than the loss of the use of the money in buying the residence, rising mortgage rates are irrelevant to those buyers.
    The cost of borrowing for all real estate projects will increase – including that for new rental units as well as remodeled ones which will result in higher prices for renters
    Rent can increase for all units in an area that is not only popular, but has housing shortages. That has certainly been the case in the Seattle area.
    Housing formations can increase demand as people in their 30s and 40s finally decide they have had enough of sharing an apartment with another and decide to obtain their own place.
    Governments on all levels can impose all sorts of ordinances and schemes that increase the cost of all housing.

    As a result of demand, the price of housing can increase even in a high interest rate environment. I had a share in an duplex in Seattle some years ago – the sales price we obtained was more than four times what we paid for it in a ten year period even though mortgage interest rates were between 9-10% during the entire time we held the property.

    Thus some may decide that they are going to rent rather than buy, as both prices and mortgage interest may decline the next few years. At least when paying rent, there is the comfort of knowing that one will spend between forty and ninety thousand dollars over the next three years (minus any increase of investments that were not applied to purchasing a residence), and have nothing to show for it other than the thanks of the landlord. And at that time, both prices and interest rates may be lower and a deal can be gained. Of course prices and interest rates may be higher.

  49. 49
    pfft says:

    By Eastsider @ 47:

    By ess @ 41:

    Housing prices can stall or even decline for all sorts of reasons, but compared to recent historic interest rates, current rates are very low. Even if they rise 1-2 percent over the next few years, they are much lower than in many recent years when there was strong housing price increases. Reviewing those rates over the past 40 years will provide an interesting perspective on what 30 year mortgage rates actually were over that time period.

    http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/pmms30.htm

    Home prices have become elevated largely due to QEs and ZIRP (~80% increase in 5 years?)

    source please.

    nothing about a recovering economy? 10 million jobs created? bounce back from an unprecedented plunge in prices? fall off in housing starts? rates aren’t low because we have an oversupply of savings?

    In the Dec before Obama came to office we lost nearly 600,000 jobs!

  50. 50
    N says:

    By MGSpiffy @ 36:

    What I wish there was solid data for is the sources of money buyers are bringing to the table.

    How many buyers are coming in with a small to modest amount for the down payment, and at what price points are they buying vs those with significant cash to throw at a purchase?

    It seems that if you don’t already have equity from a previous sale, a windfall event (tech co stock?), a variable income source that occasionally pays our massively (finance?) or some other source of a large amount of cash (overseas buyers?), then good chunks of the market are not accessible to people who work ‘regular jobs’ – even the good paying tech ones – but have only recently been able to seriously save up for a down payment.

    To them, and I am one of them, it’s like chasing the sunset. The horizon is moving away faster than we can move. For example, we saved $36,000 of our after-tax dollars last year, but the houses we would like to target have gone up in price more than that. A very modest property that was $360k last year, appreciating in price the 11% YoY mentioned above is now $400k , and the size of a mortgage we would have to take out has gone up despite the furious saving.

    In our specific case, the houses we desire are more in the $550-$700k+ range, so staying put renting has some appeal. But when you rent, you don’t have control. Twice in the last 3 years, the homes (necessary when you have mixed gender kids) we were renting have been sold out from under us, and comparable supply in the same area has been ridiculously tight, unless it has an incredibly high price (or as we like say: play spot the new buyer trying to cover his mortgage payment).

    So that’s why I am curious about the financial makeup of the buyers we’re competing with. Two six-figure tech jobs aren’t cutting it, and it’s not for several other couples we know. Is this a trend that will get worse? seems like it…

    You just outlined quite well why these increases can’t continue much longer. Rent and for sale increases are pacing way above wage increases and even though most ppl ignore it, an imbalance is created and it can’t be sustained. Buyers are getting smart and won’t pay ever increasing prices with an ever increasing percentage of their income, especially when you know your getting a raw deal in a market with only 1 month of inventory…but markets can change really fast especially if interest rates rise creating a smaller pool of buyers and maybe a few more houses on the market as sellers see how much they can get (or think they can get). Add in a softening rental market from less net migration AND 10,000+ new units opening each year in the city and buyers will be less likely to buy.

  51. 51
    Doug says:

    RE: pfft @ 49 – LOL. This economy sucks. Why do you think Trump was elected!? The only reason you don’t see soup kitchens is because we’ve gone digital with EBT cards.

    Come on.

  52. 52

    By pfft @ 49:

    nothing about a recovering economy? 10 million jobs created? bounce back from an unprecedented plunge in prices? fall off in housing starts? rates aren’t low because we have an oversupply of savings?

    In the Dec before Obama came to office we lost nearly 600,000 jobs!

    In post 45 you claim never to have done what I suggested. Then you do it only a few posts later.

    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/5/55/Total_private_industries_employment.png

    Bush took office at the beginning of a recession and ended at the start of the next one. The recession cycle impacted his numbers and helped Obama’s. The sad thing is, Obama’s could have and should have been a lot stronger, and before you ask for a source, Google “Jobless recovery” and try to remember some of our prior discussions.

  53. 53
    pfft says:

    By Doug @ 50:

    RE: pfft @ 49 – LOL. This economy sucks. Why do you think Trump was elected!? The only reason you don’t see soup kitchens is because we’ve gone digital with EBT cards.

    Come on.

    trump was elected because of the electoral college(Hillary will win the popular vote by 2 million votes at least) and because people are stupid. obama has unemployment below where Romney said it would be under a Romney presidency.

  54. 54

    By Doug @ 50:

    RE: pfft @ 49 – LOL. This economy sucks. Why do you think Trump was elected!?

    That’s a huge part of it, particularly in the swing states that Hillary lost, but not so much in the coastal states carried by Hillary.

    Oddly I’ve yet to hear the press make much of a mention of the economy. Is it because entities like the Washington Post described 161,000 jobs added as being “gradual strengthening” as opposed to the more accurate pathetic?

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/11/04/u-s-economy-added-161000-jobs-in-october-as-unemployment-rate-dipped-to-4-9-percent/?utm_term=.afa449db7c2f

  55. 55

    By pfft @ 52:

    trump was elected because of the electoral college(Hillary will win the popular vote by 2 million votes at least) and because people are stupid. obama has unemployment below where Romney said it would be under a Romney presidency.

    The only stupid people are those who complain about their candidate loosing after winning the popular vote. The campaigning would have been different if the popular vote were the deciding factor, just as an NBA game would be played different without the 3 point shot. No one knows who would have won if the goal had been to collect the most votes. Trump actually made at least one visit to Washington state, but for the life of me I don’t know why.

    As to unemployment, the difference between Romney and Obama is Romney envisioned a low rate due to jobs, not people giving up or being underemployed.

  56. 56
    Anonymous Coward says:

    RE: Brian @ 46 – Take a long, hard look at the details of the 401(k) home purchase loan provisions of your employer’s plan, if available. You may be able to effectively save pre-tax dollars for your down payment. The first big thing to watch out for is callable loans: some 401(k) purchase loans become due if you leave your current employer. The second is that some plans to not allow contributions if you have an outstanding loan. The third thing you’ll need to keep in mind is the maximum loan amount…

  57. 57
    pfft says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 51:

    By pfft @ 49:

    nothing about a recovering economy? 10 million jobs created? bounce back from an unprecedented plunge in prices? fall off in housing starts? rates aren’t low because we have an oversupply of savings?

    In the Dec before Obama came to office we lost nearly 600,000 jobs!

    In post 45 you claim never to have done what I suggested. Then you do it only a few posts later.

    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/5/55/Total_private_industries_employment.png

    Bush took office at the beginning of a recession and ended at the start of the next one. The recession cycle impacted his numbers and helped Obama’s

    nothing could be further from the truth as usual with you kary. obama still had a year of terrible jobs reports. much worse than bush took office with. obama still managed to create over 10 million jobs.

    http://www.msnbc.com/sites/msnbc/files/styles/embedded_image/public/6.5.15.2.jpg?itok=Gs1LTAo6

    contrary to what you say I made a like for like comparison.

    What about what bush had to deal with?

    The Labor Department estimates that a net 1.735 million jobs were shed in 2001, with an additional net 508,000 lost during 2002. 2003 saw a small gain of a mere 105,000 jobs. Unemployment rose from 4.2% in February 2001 to 5.5% in November 2001, but did not peak until June 2003 at 6.3%, after which it declined to 5% by mid-2005.

    More jobs were lost in Dec of 08 than were lost in ALL of 2002!

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Early_2000s_recession#United_States

  58. 58
    pfft says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 54:

    By pfft @ 52:

    trump was elected because of the electoral college(Hillary will win the popular vote by 2 million votes at least) and because people are stupid. obama has unemployment below where Romney said it would be under a Romney presidency.

    The only stupid people are those who complain about their candidate loosing after winning the popular vote.

    it’s a dumb system.

  59. 59
    uwp says:

    RE: pfft @ 52

    pfft,

    You will never convince them. Nothing matters.
    Obama will forever be a big government failure who destroyed the economy in 2008, and then did everything in his power to make the recession last for the past 8 years.

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=bZ6D

    War is peace. Freedom is slavery. Ignorance is strength.

  60. 60

    By pfft @ 57:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 54:

    By pfft @ 52:

    trump was elected because of the electoral college(Hillary will win the popular vote by 2 million votes at least) and because people are stupid. obama has unemployment below where Romney said it would be under a Romney presidency.

    The only stupid people are those who complain about their candidate loosing after winning the popular vote.

    it’s a dumb system.

    Only if you can’t understand it. The point of the system is to keep large states and urban areas from having too much control over who is President. If you had a candidate from CA and another from KS it would be virtually impossible for the KS candidate to win, unless maybe the CA candidate was a very poor candidate like Gore and not able to even win their own state.

    People in urban areas think differently than people from rural areas. Urbanites like big government and utilize a lot of government services. People from rural areas are much more self-sufficient. Without the EC you’d have a relatively small areas of the country controlling the rest of the country. With the EC it’s much more balanced.

    I would also add that it eliminates the possibility of a nationwide recount. That would have been difficult today and when the Constitution was adopted.

  61. 61

    RE: uwp @ 58 – No one said Obama destroyed the economy. In contrast though, some people blame Bush for the first recession, even though it was clearly in progress before he took office.

  62. 62
    pfft says:

    By uwp @ 59:

    RE: pfft @ 52

    pfft,

    You will never convince them. Nothing matters.
    Obama will forever be a big government failure who destroyed the economy in 2008, and then did everything in his power to make the recession last for the past 8 years.

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=bZ6D

    War is peace. Freedom is slavery. Ignorance is strength.

    sometimes we are just sharpening arguments.

  63. 63
    pfft says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 60:

    By pfft @ 57:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 54:

    By pfft @ 52:

    trump was elected because of the electoral college(Hillary will win the popular vote by 2 million votes at least) and because people are stupid. obama has unemployment below where Romney said it would be under a Romney presidency.

    The only stupid people are those who complain about their candidate loosing after winning the popular vote.

    it’s a dumb system.

    Only if you can’t understand it. The point of the system is to keep large states and urban areas from having too much control over who is President. If you had a candidate from CA and another from KS it would be virtually impossible for the KS candidate to win, unless maybe the CA candidate was a very poor candidate like Gore and not able to even win their own state.

    People in urban areas think differently than people from rural areas. Urbanites like big government and utilize a lot of government services. People from rural areas are much more self-sufficient. Without the EC you’d have a relatively small areas of the country controlling the rest of the country. With the EC it’s much more balanced.

    I really can’t get into it now but virtually NOTHING you said is correct. try proving me wrong and tell me where you learned all this?

    Bush was from Texas and Gore was from Tennessee btw…

  64. 64

    RE: pfft @ 63 – Seriously, I don’t have the time to teach you about the Constitution. Nothing I said was wrong–you just don’t have a clue or any understanding of the Electoral College.

    Not sure why you’re bringing up where Bush is from, but my reference to Gore was to the fact that he didn’t carry Tennessee in 2000–the state he was from! You undoubtedly forgot that because it happened more than a month ago, but if Gore had carried his own state he would have won.

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2000/president/2000_elections_electoral_college_map.html

    I’m not sure how many times a candidate has not carried their own state. The only other time I remember was McGovern, he only carried one state and DC, and not his own state. Trump didn’t carry NY, but he was running against another New Yorker, so that was sort of like Obama running against McCain, where a Senator had to win even though historically Senators do poorly.

  65. 65
    Blurtman says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 14 – Ummm, no.

    “The purpose of the Department of Labor is to foster, promote, and develop the welfare of the wage earners, job seekers, and retirees of the United States; improve working conditions; advance opportunities for profitable employment; and assure work-related benefits and rights.”

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Department_of_Labor

    In that respect, Chao gets a big fail, as well as the worst president of all time, George W. Bush. And The Shrub has the worst job creation record of all presidents except for Herbert Hoover. And other presidents have weathered recessions.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jobs_created_during_U.S._presidential_terms

  66. 66
    Blurtman says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 61 – Bush’s general incompetence meant no checking rampant Wall Street fraud which crashed the economy. And that imbecile nominated a criminal fraudster for his Treasury Secretary. He is responsible for zero job growth, lying the US into a disastrous war, and crashing the economy.

  67. 67

    RE: Blurtman @ 66RE: Blurtman @ 65 – Um, yes you are using the same cyclical analysis as pfft. Your link shows that.

    As to what crashed the economy, I think you’re giving Congress a huge pass. I understand why the voters overwhelmingly went for Obama over a Republican in 2008, but I don’t understand why we didn’t have 90% turnover in the House and 33 new Senators. Show me what Congress sent to Bush to sign that he vetoed, causing the crash: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_presidential_vetoes#George_W._Bush

  68. 68
    Hugh Dominic says:

    Here’s a scenario you might enjoy.

    I live in a home that I own in Seattle. I paid cash for another home that is in fair shape, but I would like to tear down and replace with a much nicer one. Problem #1: construction costs in Seattle are ridiculously high right now. GC’s are just naming their price to see who takes it. Problem #2: city permitting sucks. The restrictions are Byzantine and the wait times are 9 months. I’m in no hurry as a result.

    I thought about renting it out, but I don’t want to be subject to Seattle punitive laws against landlords. The city views landlords as predatory and evil, while tenants are innocent victims that must be protected. I lose out on rental income but I just don’t want to put myself in that situation.

    So, the house will sit vacant for the forseeable future. I will have to pay taxes and some maintenance costs but I don’t really care. I view it as the price of an “option” that I can exercise at some point. If prices drop, the GCs and permits will loosen up and I exercise the option to tear down and build my dream house. If prices go up, then I’m happy to gain on the appreciation and know that I’m hedged (insulated) from the rising prices.

    The problem for Seattle is there is a housing unit that is sitting unused. Nice job Seattle.

  69. 69
    pfft says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 67:

    RE: Blurtman @ 66RE: Blurtman @ 65 – Um, yes you are using the same cyclical analysis as pfft. Your link shows that.

    what the hell does this even mean? what the heck do cyclical analysis mean in the instance? I judged each president by his term. same for each. obama had a worse hole to dig out of.

    https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-PgKZ-prqPEs/V1RAAUd3r9I/AAAAAAAAnx4/XDS1L-EqS3silwQUHyFHUusZ_qoTTDQMgCLcB/s1600/PrivateMay2016.PNG

    http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2016/06/public-and-private-sector-payroll-jobs.html

  70. 70
    MGSpiffy says:

    Re: softwarengineer @ 40:

    Your neighbor probably got ‘too old’ and not politically protected enough. MSFT claims their layoffs are not biased, but I know many people 40+ who’ve been cut loose, and they all say they are seeing it in stealth mode with poor reviews, etc…

    RE: Brian @42:

    Thanks for your input. See my response to Doug to better understand where we are coming from.

    I wanted stress that our situation isn’t everyone’s but it’s interesting. We have a big income but just now are able to save, and save aggressively, but in this market (staying in closer to where our jobs are) it seems like it’s not enough to gain ground. In the vast majority of US markets, we’d be on our way, but here it seems that door is almost closed shut.

    RE: Doug @ 43

    I take some umbrage at your assumptions about our spending habits. The situation is that we’re a recently married older couple and both coming out of a financial hole with some velocity. (Divorce on my side, student loans on her side after being a SAHM). We both went debt free about a year ago, and are saving hard despite having 3 kids to pay for and renting a house suitable for said children.

    Rent + all utils, etc takes ~4K a month, and state mandated transfer payments take another 2k. On top of that we are in the position that gets hit hard by the Tax code… we’d have almost $1000 a month more if I made all the (same total of) money and she didn’t work due to 2xFICA and early phaseouts of deductions.

    And yes, I know MMM very well. You can find me on /r/PersonalFinance and /r/FinancialIndependence :P

    Our situation is more about being late to the starting line, and though not super common, we’re finding it’s not uncommon either.

    We’re looking hard at buying now because of our ages and how long we expect our careers to last and would like to be in a paid off house by retirement age. When you hit mid-50s, landing good tech jobs gets a whole lot harder, so we’re not banking on careers that will go up and on forever. There’s also the rate of job turnover in tech, which is another reason we put a premium on being close in rather than living out near Snoqualmi .

    RE: Kary @ 44

    That’s what we are assuming. People feel like that have to go all in to get now or get locked out. We’d really like to have a stronger position than that, but we may just have to give in, and finance that much more.

    RE: Brian @ 46

    Correct on the kids part. Life as a middle aged parent is much more economically messy than the ‘late 20-something, he works at Google, she works at Amazon, they rent a studio apt’ couples that we know.

    At our age I think we are more scared / cautious about over extending ourselves – both now and down the road.

  71. 71
    kenmorem says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 60:

    By pfft @ 57:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 54:

    By pfft @ 52:

    trump was elected because of the electoral college(Hillary will win the popular vote by 2 million votes at least) and because people are stupid. obama has unemployment below where Romney said it would be under a Romney presidency.

    The only stupid people are those who complain about their candidate loosing after winning the popular vote.

    it’s a dumb system.

    People in urban areas think differently than people from rural areas. Urbanites like big government and utilize a lot of government services. People from rural areas are much more self-sufficient. Without the EC you’d have a relatively small areas of the country controlling the rest of the country. With the EC it’s much more balanced.

    GTFO kary. you know, i used to think you provided some useful insight on this website, but these past 2 months have shown me that: 1) you must have no customers b/c you’re on this site all the time; 2) you are wrong about 90% of the time; 3) no one likes you; 4) when someone challenges you on facts, you just make stuff up and ignore the conversation.

    here’s a fact: democrats financially support republicans, big time.
    in WA, the liberal counties support the conservative counties: http://www.thestranger.com/seattle/welfare-state/Content?oid=6686284
    in the US, red states consume from blue states:
    http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2014/05/which-states-are-givers-and-which-are-takers/361668/

    feel free to discuss these points or prove otherwise. or, since you’re a trump supporter, just make up some more BS and preach it as truth.

  72. 72

    RE: Hugh Dominic @ 68 – I can’t think of the name of the “sharing economy” service which applies to short term rentals of houses, nor can I remember what Seattle’s current position is on such things, but have you considered going that option?

    Note I’m not recommending it, and would strongly suggest you consult your insurance agent about insurance if you do that. I’m just asking if you’ve considered it. I owned a condo I left vacant for a long time, so I don’t think leaving it vacant is totally crazy, but in the case of the condo I got some use of it from time to time.

  73. 73
    Anonymous says:

    Single income family looking. We have the income , down payment, and cushion. But I seriously can’t find anything I like on the Eastside for $1.5-$1. 7m. We moved from a more expensive area and cashed out equity and the single income is good. But I am shocked by the fact everyone I meet renting and trying to buy with 3-5% down ! It’s not funny to hear people quibbling about breaking a lease and worrying about $15k in rent. Wtf. ? I mean if you are buying a .million dollar home then you should swing the rent too. And i just met a family who got denied a mortgage on $1m home because they wouldn’t sell the home they were living in and couldn’t qualify for both. I see a slowdown personally in homes from April may when we started looking. There is less bidding wars.

  74. 74
    Eastsider says:

    In addition to interest rate hitting new highs, Chinese cash may no longer support overseas RE purchases. My thesis is to stay put and let it play out next year. The current housing market is not sustainable IMO.

    Foreign Companies Face New Clampdown for Getting Money out of China
    http://www.wsj.com/articles/foreign-companies-face-new-clampdown-for-getting-money-out-of-china-1480604271

    In recent days, according to bankers and officials familiar with the situation, China’s foreign-exchange regulator has instructed banks to sharply limit how much companies move out of the country and into their other operations around the world. Until this week, it was possible for big companies to “sweep” $50 million worth of yuan or dollars in or out of China with minimal documentation. Now, these people say, the cap is the equivalent of $5 million, a pittance for the largest corporations.

    Beijing is fighting an increasingly vicious cycle of capital outflows that weaken the yuan.

  75. 75
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Anonymous @ 71

    In many cases, tenant can negotiate with landlord on lease break-up fee (e.g. 1-3 months rent). If that is not possible, landlord is required to look for new tenant in good faith. The tenant is then responsible for rent during the time the unit is vacant. It should be relatively easy to find a new tenant in this market but avoid Oct-Dec due to seasonal factors. Please note this is not a legal advise.

  76. 76
    Brian says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 72

    This talks about companies trying to get money out of China, but what about individuals? I’m not 100% sure, is it companies or individuals that are scooping up our real estate?

    It seems like over the last month China has done a lot to stem capital outflows. Wonder how much more they’ll do. The Yuan actually started rebounding vs. the dollar because of this last one.

  77. 77
    Brian says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 73

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-28/cate-blanchett-s-sydney-home-hitch-shows-china-s-money-flow-fear

    Chinese banks have been told to tighten loopholes that allow individuals to evade capital controls, and police have started arresting people in a campaign to prevent cash finding its way out. Authorities have also banned friends or relatives from grouping together currency quotas, curbed the cross-border activities of underground banks and asked lenders to reduce foreign-exchange sales.

    Still, there are plenty of alternative routes for determined buyers. Business owners can finance their home purchases through offshore trading companies, while some Chinese developers allow clients to pay for overseas units in yuan.

    Interesting. This may answer my question. This article is a couple days old (before this latest news). It mentions how China has been curbing individual outflows. This quote above says individuals could go through businesses to get their capital out of the country. If that capital is now restricted tenfold, it could definitely impact individuals looking to buy foreign property.

  78. 78
    GoHawks says:

    Love the honest dialogue about what buyers are seeing and facing right now.

    Tired of sorting through political rants to see every fifth post be about real estate.

  79. 79
    sleepless says:

    By pfft @ 39:

    But remember, emails.

    Yes, you are right, some people just above the law, it is so disgusting that “teflon” killary got away. People went to prison for the rest of their lives for a fraction of what Klinton did. And Trump won’t prosecute her, such a shame.

  80. 80
    sleepless says:

    By pfft @ 45:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 38:

    By pfft @ 23:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 14:

    By Blurtman @ 9:

    RE: pfft @ 6 – What about Elaine Chao? She had the worst record of job creation as Labor Secretary perhaps of all time. Not sure if Hoover had a Labor Secretary but Chao couldn’t have been much better.

    I assume that’s using the same analysis pfft often uses, which bases the start or stop point statistics on the start of “The Great Recession.”

    don’t ever remember doing that but whatever that’s never stopped you.

    We all know you have a short memory. The reference was to your trying to deny a lack of a rise in the deficit under Obama because technically the spending started before he took office, together with the federal government’s fiscal year.

    deficit was caused almost exclusively by a plunge in tax revenue due to the Bush Great Recession. I didn’t know that one time was a pattern? apparently in karyland it is.

    Stop blaming Bush already for the failed Obama’s policies. Obama had 8 years to fix sheet, and didn’t fix nothing. It is Obama’s fault now!

  81. 81
    sleepless says:

    By pfft @ 49:

    By Eastsider @ 47:

    By ess @ 41:

    Housing prices can stall or even decline for all sorts of reasons, but compared to recent historic interest rates, current rates are very low. Even if they rise 1-2 percent over the next few years, they are much lower than in many recent years when there was strong housing price increases. Reviewing those rates over the past 40 years will provide an interesting perspective on what 30 year mortgage rates actually were over that time period.

    http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/pmms30.htm

    Home prices have become elevated largely due to QEs and ZIRP (~80% increase in 5 years?)

    source please.

    nothing about a recovering economy? 10 million jobs created? bounce back from an unprecedented plunge in prices? fall off in housing starts? rates aren’t low because we have an oversupply of savings?

    In the Dec before Obama came to office we lost nearly 600,000 jobs!

    You are just like a broken record, just keep repeating same narrative. Aren’t you tired already? Klinton lost, Nobama is out of office in about month a half. You got Trump for the next 4 years, suck it up and move along!

  82. 82
    sleepless says:

    By pfft @ 53:

    By Doug @ 50:

    RE: pfft @ 49 – LOL. This economy sucks. Why do you think Trump was elected!? The only reason you don’t see soup kitchens is because we’ve gone digital with EBT cards.

    Come on.

    trump was elected because people are stupid….

    I agree with that, I also agree that Klinton came second because of the same reason. Before that the “stupid” voted for Nobama, and for Bush before that, and another Klinton before that. The “stupid” have been voting the same crooks every 4 years. Is it what is called insanity? Doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different outcome?

  83. 83
    sleepless says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 54:

    By Doug @ 50:

    RE: pfft @ 49 – LOL. This economy sucks. Why do you think Trump was elected!?

    That’s a huge part of it, particularly in the swing states that Hillary lost, but not so much in the coastal states carried by Hillary.

    Actually, 45% voted no-one. So, technically both Klinton and Trump lost as they both got hardly 25% of vote. Meaning only 1/4 of the populous supported either one.

  84. 84
    sleepless says:

    By pfft @ 58:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 54:

    By pfft @ 52:

    trump was elected because of the electoral college(Hillary will win the popular vote by 2 million votes at least) and because people are stupid. obama has unemployment below where Romney said it would be under a Romney presidency.

    The only stupid people are those who complain about their candidate loosing after winning the popular vote.

    it’s a dumb system.

    It is not dumb system, it is called republic and this is what this country was founded upon. It is not a democracy, it is the republic, the USA has never intended to be a democracy. You want democracy, move to Canada or shut up. Democracies fail, look at yourself, too many dumb people that should not be allowed to vote in the first place.

  85. 85
    sleepless says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 61:

    RE: uwp @ 58 – No one said Obama destroyed the economy. In contrast though, some people blame Bush for the first recession, even though it was clearly in progress before he took office.

    The recession was the result of lousy monetary policies under first klinton. Courtesy of Greenspan. Greenspan created the .com bubble, than he/Bernanke created the housing bubble in 2008, then Yellen created the current bubble. We are still in the 2000s .com bubble as it never deflated in the first place.

  86. 86
    pfft says:

    Seattle Minimum Wage Experiment is Over
    http://ritholtz.com/2016/12/seattle-min-wage-update/

    The unemployment rate in the city of Seattle – the tip of the spear when it comes to minimum wage experiments – has now hit a new cycle low of 3.4%, as the city continues to thrive. I’m not sure what else there is to say at this point. The doomsayers were wrong. The sky has not fallen.

  87. 87
    pfft says:

    By sleepless @ 81:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 61:

    RE: uwp @ 58 – No one said Obama destroyed the economy. In contrast though, some people blame Bush for the first recession, even though it was clearly in progress before he took office.

    The recession was the result of lousy monetary policies under first klinton. Courtesy of Greenspan. Greenspan created the .com bubble, than he/Bernanke created the housing bubble in 2008, then Yellen created the current bubble. We are still in the 2000s .com bubble as it never deflated in the first place.

    so you are saying there was no tech wreck? interesting.

  88. 88
    pfft says:

    By sleepless @ 77:

    By pfft @ 39:

    But remember, emails.

    Yes, you are right, some people just above the law, it is so disgusting that “teflon” killary got away. People went to prison for the rest of their lives for a fraction of what Klinton did. And Trump won’t prosecute her, such a shame.

    you don’t have any idea what you are talking about. laws like that are VERY specific. you have to prove that she set up a server to specifically mishandle classified info. there is absolutely no evidence that she did that. your example is bunk. name one person in jail for setting up a private server. thought so.

    btw Gen Petraeus did far worse and he is not doing any time and may serve in the government again. in order to visit with Drumpf he had to check in with his parole officer.

    is there some juvenile place on the internet where putting a K in Clinton’s name is cool? is there something I am missing.?

  89. 89
    Anonymous Coward says:

    By pfft @ 84:

    you have to prove that she set up a server to specifically mishandle classified info.

    Nope, just nope. The law is “gross negligence”, aka, did the person follow the written procedures for the handling of classified information? If the answer to that question is “nope, and repeatedly so” then they committed a felony. It really is that simple. And, yes, this is exactly why everyone has to be read the relevant procedures and sign (document) that they have read and understood said procedures prior to being allowed to see/handle any classified information.

  90. 90
    Blurtman says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 67 – I don’t recall W. Bush making American jobs a prominent goal of either of his two terms. And Obama inherited the worst Wall Street caused recession since the Great Depression, and yet he had superior job growth to The Shrub in his second term, in spite of an uncooperative congress. How could you have voted for that imbecile twice?

  91. 91

    By pfft @ 84:

    btw Gen Petraeus did far worse and he is not doing any time and may serve in the government again. in order to visit with Drumpf he had to check in with his parole officer.

    That’s because based on recent history, Trump thinks being unwilling to properly secure classified information is a requisite for being Secretary of State. ;-)

  92. 92

    By Blurtman @ 86:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 67 – I don’t recall W. Bush making American jobs a prominent goal of either of his two terms. And Obama inherited the worst Wall Street caused recession since the Great Depression, and yet he had superior job growth to The Shrub in his second term, in spite of an uncooperative congress. How could you have voted for that imbecile twice?

    Seriously, how many times can you keep doing the same thing? Your stats are based on the timing of recession cycles. If you look at the graph of what happened over time, the rate of growth for employment was probably the greatest under Clinton (likely due to technology advancements), but other than that the rate of growth during periods of growth has been relatively the same going back to LBJ. It’s just the timing of recession cycles that determines the ending percentages.

    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/5/55/Total_private_industries_employment.png

    What you’re doing is what the lowest form of political hacks do (and pfft). I expect better of you.

    And don’t assume I voted for Bush twice, or was it Obama you think I voted for? I’m not a big fan of any president during my lifetime–I just think that they get too much blame (and too much credit) for what happens to the economy during their terms.

    Finally, as to Obama’s job growth, that would be expected after a recession. What’s unfortunate is it could have happened much earlier and at a much greater rate if Obama had not passed Obamacare so early, had not threatened tax increases so early and had not been so critical of companies spending money. To the extent Obama did affect the economy, he was an anchor, not a kite.

  93. 93

    By pfft @ 49:

    10 million jobs created?

    One more thing on this economic topic. Ten million jobs over 8 years is a horrible result. There are differing figures on what is required just to tread water given population growth, but they generally fall well over 100,000 jobs a month.

    http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2016/04/07/the-new-magic-number-for-monthly-job-growth-145000/

    At 10,000,000 over 8 years that would be barely over 100,000 a month, so during Obama’s term we barely broke even. And that is likely a big part of the reason Trump won some of the swing states he won, and other states not thought to be swing states. The employment situation in this country is not as rosy as many claim.

  94. 94
    Brian says:

    Yuck…. today may be a bad day to lock in a mortgage rate. Several places I’m getting quotes of almost 4.25%. Might be a little better Monday because the 10 year treasury is down a little today.

  95. 95

    RE: Brian @ 42
    Yes Brian

    A move to the “new” mid-west silicon valley would get you out of your parent’s basement….you can come back to Seattle after you accumulate the money and own a home waiting for the cash too…

    Your cake and eat it too. Am I glad my 28 YO daughter lives in Kansas City and not with me…..LOL

  96. 96
    Brian says:

    By softwarengineer @ 91:

    RE: Brian @ 42
    Yes Brian

    A move to the “new” mid-west silicon valley would get you out of your parent’s basement….you can come back to Seattle after you accumulate the money and own a home waiting for the cash too…

    Your cake and eat it too. Am I glad my 28 YO daughter lives in Kansas City and not with me…..LOL

    Half of what you typed didn’t make grammatical sense. But regardless, you have no basis for making rude comments about my life choices.

  97. 97
    Amy says:

    I’m a “potential” buyer right now and have been saving for a couple years on a single 6-figure income. At this point, I have enough to put 20% down on just about anything in the price range I’m interested in, but life circumstances are making it really easy, and probably smarter, to continue renting and be extremely picky for another year or two. If I find something absolutely perfect I might jump on it, but with my +1 graduating med school in another year or two it makes sense to wait and make sure the residency application here is actually accepted first.

    Given the new president, rising interest rates, and “interesting” global political climate, who knows where prices will go in the next couple years? Having 2 incomes and a nice down payment ready to go sounds like a good idea to me. :-)

  98. 98
  99. 99
    Doug says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 89 – Agreed. And 10mm jobs without context is useless. What was population growth over that time? I see the total number not in the workforce hit an all-time high today.

  100. 100
    kenmorem says:

    By kenmorem @ 69:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 60:

    By pfft @ 57:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 54:

    By pfft @ 52:

    trump was elected because of the electoral college(Hillary will win the popular vote by 2 million votes at least) and because people are stupid. obama has unemployment below where Romney said it would be under a Romney presidency.

    The only stupid people are those who complain about their candidate loosing after winning the popular vote.

    it’s a dumb system.

    People in urban areas think differently than people from rural areas. Urbanites like big government and utilize a lot of government services. People from rural areas are much more self-sufficient. Without the EC you’d have a relatively small areas of the country controlling the rest of the country. With the EC it’s much more balanced.

    feel free to discuss these points or prove otherwise. or, since you’re a trump supporter, just make up some more BS and preach it as truth.

    …still waiting kary…

  101. 101
    pfft says:

    By Anonymous Coward @ 85:

    By pfft @ 84:

    you have to prove that she set up a server to specifically mishandle classified info.

    Nope, just nope. The law is “gross negligence”, aka, did the person follow the written procedures for the handling of classified information? If the answer to that question is “nope, and repeatedly so” then they committed a felony.

    which she did not do! even a republican couldn’t indict her.

    Donald Trump destroyed emails, recordings, documents in defiance of court orders
    http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/10/31/1589009/-Donald-Trump-destroyed-emails-recordings-documents-in-defiance-of-court-orders

    the problem is people that don’t like the clintons think they are guilty of something and they latch onto whatever fake scandal(benghazi) is going on at the moment. nobody remembers the 90s?

  102. 102
    pfft says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 88:

    By Blurtman @ 86:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 67 – I don’t recall W. Bush making American jobs a prominent goal of either of his two terms. And Obama inherited the worst Wall Street caused recession since the Great Depression, and yet he had superior job growth to The Shrub in his second term, in spite of an uncooperative congress. How could you have voted for that imbecile twice?

    Finally, as to Obama’s job growth, that would be expected after a recession. What’s unfortunate is it could have happened much earlier and at a much greater rate if Obama had not passed Obamacare so early, had not threatened tax increases so early and had not been so critical of companies spending money. To the extent Obama did affect the economy, he was an anchor, not a kite.

    haha, kary is still at it. don’t ever change kary!

    obama created 10+ million jobs. he did it with one party actively sabotaging him. his stimulus program added millions of jobs.

  103. 103
    pfft says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 89:

    By pfft @ 49:

    10 million jobs created?

    One more thing on this economic topic. Ten million jobs over 8 years is a horrible result. There are differing figures on what is required just to tread water given population growth, but they generally fall well over 100,000 jobs a month.

    http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2016/04/07/the-new-magic-number-for-monthly-job-growth-145000/

    At 10,000,000 over 8 years that would be barely over 100,000 a month, so during Obama’s term we barely broke even. And that is likely a big part of the reason Trump won some of the swing states he won, and other states not thought to be swing states. The employment situation in this country is not as rosy as many claim.

    still more denial. have you looked at the figures? obama did pretty good given the fact that he took office during the great recession. bush created NO JOBS during his tenure.

  104. 104
    pfft says:

    By Doug @ 95:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 89 – Agreed. And 10mm jobs without context is useless. What was population growth over that time? I see the total number not in the workforce hit an all-time high today.

    more denial. the unemployment rate is below what Romney said he would do at the end of 4 years.

    Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs: Carter, Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush, Obama

    Read more at http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2016/12/public-and-private-sector-payroll-jobs.html#gWXDedYApgRCSmEv.99

  105. 105
    Anonymous Coward says:

    By pfft @ 96:

    which she did not do!

    Mr. Comey of the FBI would beg to differ with you. The careful reader will note that Director Comey’s statement that “no reasonable prosecutor” would indict her was immediately proceeded by a lengthy statement laying out all of the ways his investigation had shown that she was grossly negligent in her handling of classified information. The careful reader will clearly note that after laying out said evidence, he did not say “she’s done nothing wrong” or “she didn’t break the law”. No, what he said was “no reasonable prosecutor” would indict her. It is left as an exercise to the reader to work out whether or not a “reasonable prosecutor” would have recommended an indictment had the person under investigation been anyone other than Hillary Clinton.

  106. 106
    GoHawks says:

    “Seattle is really a key part of our long-term mission,” Mike Schroepfer, Facebook’s chief technology officer, said in May.

  107. 107

    By pfft @ 98:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 89:

    By pfft @ 49:

    10 million jobs created?

    One more thing on this economic topic. Ten million jobs over 8 years is a horrible result. There are differing figures on what is required just to tread water given population growth, but they generally fall well over 100,000 jobs a month.

    http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2016/04/07/the-new-magic-number-for-monthly-job-growth-145000/

    At 10,000,000 over 8 years that would be barely over 100,000 a month, so during Obama’s term we barely broke even. And that is likely a big part of the reason Trump won some of the swing states he won, and other states not thought to be swing states. The employment situation in this country is not as rosy as many claim.

    still more denial. have you looked at the figures? obama did pretty good given the fact that he took office during the great recession. bush created NO JOBS during his tenure.

    Nice non-response to any of my arguments in this thread. Denial much?

  108. 108
    Doug says:

    RE: pfft @ 99 – No one credible actually uses the unemployment rate to argue for or against anything — everyone now accepts that it is a bogus number.

    I’m a fan of and 2-time voter for Obama so we’re (sort of) coming from the same place, but I’m also not naive enough to believe that he himself righted the American economy. I truly believe a monkey could have been sitting in his seat and we likely would have had the same outcome with the amount of liquidity the Fed was pumping into the system at the time.

    He came into a presidency that had lost 8.5mm jobs. It actually would have been remarkable if he hadn’t turned things around. Right place, right time. I really don’t think you fully understand the power and influence the Fed has (I know you don’t believe the Fed is responsible for today’s asset prices). Without first looking it up, can you tell us what the Fed’s duel mandate is? With that answer in mind, is it the president or the Fed who should receive credit? Presidents are puppets.

    “Give me control of a nation’s money supply and I care not who makes it’s laws”

  109. 109

    pfft, neither of your last two posts (98 and 99) have responded to a single argument I’ve made. The unemployment numbers are not that good, and your simply claiming otherwise doesn’t mean anything.

    Even the mainstream media is picking this up now that the elections are over. Why can’t you get over your denial?

    http://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/02/95-million-american-workers-not-in-us-labor-force.html

  110. 110
    jon says:

    By pfft @ 102:

    obama created 10+ million jobs. he did it with one party actively sabotaging him. his stimulus program added millions of jobs.

    He’s a busy guy. And no one from the rest of 300,000,000 of us had anything to do with it.

  111. 111
    Blurtman says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 92 – That’s an unprecedented business cycle to have 12 years of near zero job creation – 8 years during Bush’s two terms, and 4 years of Obama’s first term. Blaming an apparently unprecedented 12 year down business cycle sounds link pure bunkum. Again, I have to repeat, that W. Bush had the worst job creation of any president but Hoover, including presidents who were in office during down business cycles.

  112. 112
    pfft says:

    By Doug @ 107:

    RE: pfft @ 99 – No one credible actually uses the unemployment rate to argue for or against anything — everyone now accepts that it is a bogus number.

    actually that is not true at all. nice try.

  113. 113
    pfft says:

    By Blurtman @ 110:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 92 – That’s an unprecedented business cycle to have 12 years of near zero job creation – 8 years during Bush’s two terms, and 4 years of Obama’s first term. Blaming an apparently unprecedented 12 year down business cycle sounds link pure bunkum. Again, I have to repeat, that W. Bush had the worst job creation of any president but Hoover, including presidents who were in office during down business cycles.

    let there be no doubt.

  114. 114
    Screenname345 says:

    @ESS re: Facebook. That is incredible news. So now Google AND Facebook will have new complexes downtown in 2018. This is in addition to the new building Facebook moved into this year!!! I am leaving money on the table by selling next year I guess.

  115. 115
    Brian says:

    Interesting, just learned about California’s Proposition 13 that was enacted back in 1978. This proposition makes it so that property taxes are only re-assessed upon sale, and can only rise 2% every year until then.

    Apparently it’s a huge disincentive for long-term owners to sell in a rising market because a new home could have a much higher property tax payment. It also helps ensure they don’t get “forced” out by rising property taxes.

    As a result of Proposition 13, there are obvious distortions in the real estate marketplace. For example, in 2003 financier Warren Buffett announced that he pays property taxes of $14,410, or 2.9 percent, on his $500,000 home in Omaha, Nebraska, but pays only $2,264, or 0.056 percent, on his $4 million home in California. Although Buffet is known as an astute investor, the low property taxes on his California home are not attributable to his investment prowess, but rather to Proposition 13.

    http://www.nber.org/digest/apr05/w11108.html

    Maybe comparing Seattle’s market future to San Francisco’s (or any in California) is not so straight forward, when long-term owners there have such a disincentive to sell. I’ve heard the major argument for why their home prices are so high is because home owners have lived there so long and refuse to sell, but not until now did I know why.

  116. 116
    Blurtman says:

    RE: Brian @ 114 – ” It also helps ensure they don’t get “forced” out by rising property taxes.”

    Actually, the bogus claim was that Prop 13 would prevent Grannie from losing her home, a spurious argument as Granny could easily take out a HELOC if she needed to in order to pay her rising property taxes. It was really just a tax revolt by homeowners and their greedy heirs.

  117. 117
    sleepless says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 93:

    By pfft @ 49:

    10 million jobs created?

    One more thing on this economic topic. Ten million jobs over 8 years is a horrible result. There are differing figures on what is required just to tread water given population growth, but they generally fall well over 100,000 jobs a month.

    http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2016/04/07/the-new-magic-number-for-monthly-job-growth-145000/

    At 10,000,000 over 8 years that would be barely over 100,000 a month, so during Obama’s term we barely broke even. And that is likely a big part of the reason Trump won some of the swing states he won, and other states not thought to be swing states. The employment situation in this country is not as rosy as many claim.

    If you count the people that are not in the labor force (basically, if you don’t receive unemployment benefits, you are not considered in labor force even if look for a job), you are not counted unemployed. The real unemployment is much higher than the GOV bogus numbers suggest. The labor participation rate is at multidecade low at the same time the welfare use and disabilities (some get disabilities as alternative to employment) are at multidecade high. So, with 10 mil jobs we didn’t even break even. And also keep in mind the part time jobs. If an individual has two or three part time jobs they are all counted as separate jobs. And multipart time jobs are at all time high as well.

  118. 118
    sleepless says:

    By pfft @ 111:

    By Doug @ 107:

    RE: pfft @ 99 – No one credible actually uses the unemployment rate to argue for or against anything — everyone now accepts that it is a bogus number.

    actually that is not true at all. nice try.

    It is funny how whenever you bring an argument against a liberal, instead of disproving the argument, they will just call you a liar. You show a liberal crimes statistics, they call you racist, you show them journalist investigations into corrupt politicians, they call you “conspiracy theorist”, you debunk “gender inequality” myth, they call you sexist. You bring the radical islam as an issue (look at latest ohio stabber), they again, call you islamophobe. Every time pfft is rebutted with pretty much any argument, she just tries to deviate the conversation. We discuss Obamas failed policies, or, look there – squirrel!!! But Bush is this and Rimney is that. Who cares about Bush or Romney, Nobama is the current president! We are talking about the current president and his policies. It is just hilarious. Klinton broke the law, oh no, it is not true! Nobama doubled the debt during his administration – oh no, it is all Bushes or Romneys fault, it were Romney, he would’ve tripped the debt. How about if you want to discuss issues you start brining the real arguments, not the BS liberal propaganda. Because when it comes to arguments, liberals always try to blame someone else for their failures and call people names (racist, sexist, homophobe, islamophobe).

    http://ijr.com/2014/01/105321-8-things-liberals-avoid-honest-debate-science/

  119. 119
    sleepless says:

    By sleepless @ 115:

    By pfft @ 111:

    By Doug @ 107:

    RE: pfft @ 99 – No one credible actually uses the unemployment rate to argue for or against anything — everyone now accepts that it is a bogus number.

    actually that is not true at all. nice try.

    It is funny how whenever you bring an argument against a liberal, instead of disproving the argument, they will just call you a liar. You show a liberal crimes statistics, they call you racist, you show them journalist investigations into corrupt politicians, they call you “conspiracy theorist”, you debunk “gender inequality” myth, they call you sexist. You bring the radical islam as an issue (look at latest ohio stabber), they again, call you islamophobe. Every time pfft is rebutted with pretty much any argument, she just tries to deviate the conversation. We discuss Obamas failed policies, or, look there – squirrel!!! But Bush is this and Rimney is that. Who cares about Bush or Romney, Nobama is the current president! We are talking about the current president and his policies. It is just hilarious. Klinton broke the law, oh no, it is not true! Nobama doubled the debt during his administration – oh no, it is all Bushes or Romneys fault, it were Romney, he would’ve tripped the debt. How about if you want to discuss issues you start brining the real arguments, not the BS liberal propaganda. Because when it comes to arguments, liberals always try to blame someone else for their failures and call people names (racist, sexist, homophobe, islamophobe).

    http://ijr.com/2014/01/105321-8-things-liberals-avoid-honest-debate-science/

    Trump won because people are stupid (racist, sexist, homophobes, etc), not because Klinton is a corrupt crooked politician who had all her campaign calling people names (deplorable, etc)? Look, Klinton lost because people are sick and tired of Nobama and Klintons, not because people love Trump. Most of the people who voted for Trump voted for Nobama in the last election, same people would’ve voted for Sanders if Klinton didn’t screw him up. People were pissed off, even democrats. Lots of people voted for Trump because they saw him as lesser of the two evils. Get over it already, no one likes Klinton, she stinks. Most people don’t like Trump. We get it. Trump is bad, we get it, lets discuss the issues we would face with Trump, but stop brining up Klintons as everyone is sick and tired of them. Klintons are in the past.

    Trump Won Because ‘Racism’? NO, YOU IDIOT!! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2mr9_lY-RrU

  120. 120

    By Blurtman @ 110:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 92 – That’s an unprecedented business cycle to have 12 years of near zero job creation – 8 years during Bush’s two terms, and 4 years of Obama’s first term. Blaming an apparently unprecedented 12 year down business cycle sounds link pure bunkum. Again, I have to repeat, that W. Bush had the worst job creation of any president but Hoover, including presidents who were in office during down business cycles.

    Apparently you’ve been living under a rock and didn’t hear of the recession that hit at the end of the 2008 election cycle. I’d suggest you Google it and then you’ll understand why it might have been considered “unprecedented.” Newsflash, things didn’t go too well at the end of the 1920s, beginning of the 30s either.

  121. 121

    RE: Blurtman @ 115RE: Brian @ 114 – California’s tax system has created a lot of different issues and problems, but I hadn’t considered the incentive it creates for people to stay put. I wonder how many older people don’t downsize because they won’t realize any significant savings. Also, keep in mind that down there more people may be over the $250k/$500k exclusion for gain from sale of residence, creating more incentive to live somewhere until at least one spouse dies.

  122. 122

    RE: Blurtman @ 110 – Blurtman, I’m not going to vouch for everything in this Wikipedia piece, and link it to start at Clinton mainly for convenience. But this piece attributes much of the crisis to the push to increase home ownership, and that occurred over many years. They note Clinton pressured Fannie and Freddie to make riskier and riskier loans, but to be fair I think Congress was a force behind that too. They are sort of mixed on Bush, pointing to some regulation he proposed that didn’t go through, but also some things he did to promote home ownership.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government_policies_and_the_subprime_mortgage_crisis#Policies_of_the_Clinton_Administration

    The point is though, blaming the great recession on Bush alone is very naive, and something I would expect of pfft, but not you.

  123. 123
    Blurtman says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 116 – Yes, of course the financial crash that Obama inherited was unprecedented. But in spite of that, job growth in Obama’s second term was quite superior to job growth in either of Bush’s two terms.

  124. 124
    Blurtman says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 118 – Bush presided over unprecedented financial fraud and did nothing, except to nominate a fellow for Treasury Secretary whose firm under his leadership committed such massive fraud that they had to pay a $5 billion fraud settlement.

  125. 125

    RE: jon @ 12
    Yes Jon

    Maybe Trump can renegotiate the horrible trade deal that Patty Murry, Inslee, Reichart, etc made with Japan….give them the slave shop $12/hr Amazon warehouse jobs and we can get back our Boeing Aluminum Parts manufacturing in Seattle, $40/50/hr jobs.

  126. 126

    RE: Brian @ 96
    Rude Choices?

    LOL…I bet you’re still whining about Hillary losing, grow up and live with it.

    I’m offering you a way to own your own home now and that’s rude??? Let’s make America great again.

  127. 127

    By Blurtman @ 119:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 116 – Yes, of course the financial crash that Obama inherited was unprecedented. But in spite of that, job growth in Obama’s second term was quite superior to job growth in either of Bush’s two terms.

    Only because of the start/stop dates! I don’t know why that is so hard for you to understand. Look at the graph I posted twice. The rate of increase during the periods of increase was roughly the same, the but timing of recessions hurt things.

    I would also note that Bush’s first term was hurt by the recession that was starting prior to his taking office, the same way that Obama’s first term was hurt by the recession that started prior to his taking office.

  128. 128
    Deerhawke says:

    Sorry to be a bore and get back on the actual topic, but I am wondering if anyone has access to early statistics for the month.

    Also, does anyone know where Altos Research gets its statistics? Most of what we see covers King County and yet it is labelled as Seattle. I believe the Case-Schiller stats draw from King, Pierce and Snohomish counties and are labeled as Seattle.

    Is Altos referring to Seattle (and not King, Pierce and Snohomish county stats)?

  129. 129

    RE: Deerhawke @ 124 – The Altos stats are almost undoubtedly just Seattle based on the median and number of active units. But right now it’s updated only through 11/27, so I don’t know how accurate those numbers are. The actives are lower right now, but Altos was showing a downward trend. Seattle inventory is not something I follow. The Estately stats that appear above the Altos are not accurate, and I’ve yet to figure out why.

    As to early official stats, not possible because the NWMLS reports the late reported sales for prior months in with the current month so that the YTD figures remain accurate (and so they don’t have to restate the prior months’ figures), and you don’t know exactly when they cut that activity off. I would guess sales will be at least 2,200 (King County SFR), but the median is much harder to peg because you don’t know how many late reported sales will be above and below median, but it probably will come in roughly the same as last month. Don’t expect anything earth-shattering.

  130. 130
    justme says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 124

    Where is the Altos Research link? I cannot see it anywhere, front page, in this thread, nowhere. Yes, my ad blocker is off.

    (please just post the link here)

  131. 131

    RE: justme @ 126 – You have to be on the SB home page and have your browser set wide enough. If you see “recent comments” you should see it all the way at the bottom under “Current Stats.” The Estately stats I referred to are right above it under “inventory.”

    If the aspect ratio of your browser is too narrow, you’ll see it near the bottom.

  132. 132

    “Sorry to be a bore and get back on the actual topic, but I am wondering if anyone has access to early statistics for the month.”

    I don’t find County-wide stats to be particularly useful, but obviously have them. I usually group my stats by certain zip codes like Kirkland, Bellevue Redmond on a separate and combined basis or the primary zip codes of each vs the entire cities.

    For King County “early statistics for the month” of December we have:

    2,876 Residential Properties for sale (does not include multi-family, vacant land, etc.)
    510 of those are condos
    2,366 are “Residential” not condos
    126 of those are townhomes (some townhomes are condos and some are not in King County)

    That gives us 2,241 Residential not townhomes (the math is 1 off because I am doing this in real time and something likely listed during the time I was typing from the beginning until now. I am posting in real time and not adding and subtracting.)

    Of the 2,241 homes for sale:

    201 are $300,000 or less and 188 of those are in South vs North King County (south of I-90)
    639 are $300,000 to $500,000 pretty evenly divided north to south
    613 are $500,000 to $800,000
    208 are $801,000 to $1,000,000
    582 are $1,000,000+

    Looking at homes sold on a 12 month rolling basis from 11/21/2015 to 11/20/2016 we can see the absorption rate. I go back 10 days or so to allow for transactions closed but not yet posted for better accuracy.

    Under $300k we have 2919 sold so 201 for sale is less than a 1 month (243) supply
    $300k to $500k we have 8,085 sold so 639 for sale also less than a 1 month (673) supply
    $501k to $800k we have 8,083 sold so 613 is also less than a 1 month (673) supply
    $800k to $1M we have 2,673 sold so 208 less than a 1 month (222) supply
    $1M+ we have 3,070 sold so 582 is more than a 1 month (255) supply

    I’m going to break that last category down again just because that’s how I do things when I hit a different result.

    $1M to 1.5M has 1,991 sold and 232 for sale more than a 1 month (165) supply and less than 2 mos.
    $1.5M to $2M has 594 sold and 121 for sale so more 2 mos and less than 3 mos. (50 a mo.)
    $2M+ has 485 sold and 227 for sale. 40 a month makes 227 for sale a 5 to 6 month supply.

    Looks like we have less than a 1 month supply until we get to a million plus and the biggest glut at almost 6 months of inventory when you get over $2M.

    We have 2,238 for sale (looks like 3 went pending while I was typing this since we started at 2,241) and roughly 24,850 sold in a year makes that slightly more than the one month supply of 2,070 BUT most of the market is less than a 1 month supply. The 5 to 6 months of supply in the $2M plus category only represents slightly less than 2% of the market overall, I usually separate that out and look at the entire $1M plus market separately.

    Another way to say that is 88% of the market is at less than a one month supply.

    Not sure what you were looking for, but looking for early December stats looks like that to me. Calculating sold in the 2 days since the month started doesn’t work as most agents take at least 24 to 72 hours to post the sales. So hopefully you weren’t looking for December sold data this early.

    Obviously calculated and typed all that on the fly, so if you see any glaring errors I need to check, let me know. The numbers never line up exactly as I have to group them in units of 5,000 or less and then add them back given the limitations of the system. Usually I am doing them by zip codes and don’t have that problem in smaller volumes.

    REQUIRED DISCLOSURE: The above stats in this comment are hand calculated in real time by Ardell and not compiled, verified or published by The Northwest Multiple Listing Service.

    One of the reasons home stats and condo stats never line up is that parts of King County call townhomes a condo and other parts call it a single family home. I try to exclude all townhomes from the single family homes by another method so as to primarily compare single family homes apples to apples.

    This was a quick calculation and I didn’t go the extra step to take out houseboats and double-wides as I usually do, but they shouldn’t total up enough to make a difference in absorption rate stats.

  133. 133
    GoHawks says:

    Really wish we could have one thread for real estate…….one for politics.

  134. 134
    Deerhawke says:

    Thank you Kary and Ardell. That is really helpful.

    As a spec builder, what I do for a living is put a good deal of money at risk to build a product for a consumer I do not know for delivery in a future market I am not sure will be healthy or not.

    Right now I am trying to make some decisions about whether the two houses I am framing should be finished to price at X (my original hypothetical bank proforma price) X plus 5% (good market) or X plus 10% (really good market). If I saw a lot of inventory building, prices softening, DOM lengthening, etc. I would be thinking about how to cut back spending so I could still do OK at X minus 5% (soft market) or X minus 10% (really bad market).

    So I try to analyze things as thoroughly as possible, but at the end of the day it all comes down to that Harry Callahan quote.

    “You’ve got to ask yourself one question. Do I feel lucky?”

  135. 135
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 128
    Very nice and informative breakout. Thanks Ardell.

  136. 136
    pfft says:

    By Blurtman @ 120:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 118 – Bush presided over unprecedented financial fraud and did nothing, except to nominate a fellow for Treasury Secretary whose firm under his leadership committed such massive fraud that they had to pay a $5 billion fraud settlement.

    don’t forget that hank paulson while at goldman sach’s lobbied to take more risk.

    And don’t forget Bush reduced regs during the boom.

    http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2008/11/wapo-regulatory-failure-at-office-of.html

  137. 137
    pfft says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 123:

    By Blurtman @ 119:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 116 – Yes, of course the financial crash that Obama inherited was unprecedented. But in spite of that, job growth in Obama’s second term was quite superior to job growth in either of Bush’s two terms.

    Only because of the start/stop dates! I don’t know why that is so hard for you to understand. Look at the graph I posted twice. The rate of increase during the periods of increase was roughly the same, the but timing of recessions hurt things.

    I would also note that Bush’s first term was hurt by the recession that was starting prior to his taking office, the same way that Obama’s first term was hurt by the recession that started prior to his taking office.

    the two aren’t even remotely comparable. the great recession was way worse.

  138. 138
    pfft says:

    By Deerhawke @ 130:

    Thank you Kary and Ardell. That is really helpful.

    As a spec builder, what I do for a living is put a good deal of money at risk to build a product for a consumer I do not know for delivery in a future market I am not sure will be healthy or not.

    why not just find a buyer first?

  139. 139
    Macro Investor says:

    Tim, I really wish we could have a Pfft vs Kary thread. And a Trump vs Clinton thread. The remaining 3 real estate comments might actually be interesting.

    Folks, nobody cares about your bleeping political views. NOBODY. In case your friends, co-workers and spouses are too nice to be honest with you… JUST SHUT UP ALREADY.

  140. 140
    Macro Investor says:

    By Hugh Dominic @ 68:

    Here’s a scenario you might enjoy.

    I live in a home that I own in Seattle. I paid cash for another home that is in fair shape, but I would like to tear down and replace with a much nicer one. Problem #1: construction costs in Seattle are ridiculously high right now. GC’s are just naming their price to see who takes it. Problem #2: city permitting sucks. The restrictions are Byzantine and the wait times are 9 months. I’m in no hurry as a result.

    I thought about renting it out, but I don’t want to be subject to Seattle punitive laws against landlords. The city views landlords as predatory and evil, while tenants are innocent victims that must be protected. I lose out on rental income but I just don’t want to put myself in that situation.

    So, the house will sit vacant for the forseeable future. I will have to pay taxes and some maintenance costs but I don’t really care. I view it as the price of an “option” that I can exercise at some point. If prices drop, the GCs and permits will loosen up and I exercise the option to tear down and build my dream house. If prices go up, then I’m happy to gain on the appreciation and know that I’m hedged (insulated) from the rising prices.

    The problem for Seattle is there is a housing unit that is sitting unused. Nice job Seattle.

    I see some cognitive dissonance here. You act confident in your decision, yet you post the details to internet strangers for validation. But don’t feel bad. No business decision is easy, otherwise we’d all be rich.

    Your first 2 paragraphs recognize the very real bind we are in, living in a liberal utopia society (sarc here). I thought your conclusion would be to sell and invest in a better business climate. Software Engineer in his own unique way suggested the same thing.

    It is never good to leave a property vacant. I’m pretty sure you know that and perhaps have some emotional attachment to the house. I would recommend selling it and putting the money to work, rather than having a cash drain on your back. Real estate development can be a very good business. A relative of mine made millions starting in his 40s with one house at a time.

    You can be your own GC. The libraries are full of books on the subject. But Seattle/king is the wrong place to start for all the reasons you’ve outlined.

    Good luck.

  141. 141

    RE: Macro Investor @ 135 -It would probably help if you would read things before commenting. I’ve probably been going after Blurtman more than pfft. [But you’ve only read apparently less than half the posts here before posting your rant.]

    In case you didn’t read enough to get my point, it was that we live in an economic system that has cycles. I’m arguing that the President gets too much credit (and too much blame) for what happens, and that just looking at statistics for beginning and end of their terms is misleading. Cycles just happens to a large extent, and to the extent government controls it, it’s probably the Fed that has more effect. I wasn’t trying to be political, and even noted that the rate of job growth was probably highest during the Clinton administration.

    And in case you didn’t notice, the great recession and the resulting job losses were largely caused by housing! And housing prices have recovered as the economy has recovered. It’s interrelated.

    And in case you didn’t notice the timing, this blog site was set up because of what was happening in housing prior to the start of the Great Recession, which caused the job losses.

    I agree the politics should stay out of it, and apologize for pointing out the Obama policies which obviously delayed and slowed job growth. But I don’t apologize for pointing out that the employment picture in most areas isn’t as rosy as advertised, because that is related to the strength of the economy and thus the housing market.

    Finally, if all anyone posted about here in this thread was material relevant to Case-Schiller, there would be only three posts and they would be almost exactly the same as the three posts in each of the prior 12 months reporting Case-Shiller data.

  142. 142
    Macro Investor says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 137 – No idea what you wrote…

    Here is how I read bubble comments:

    User Pfft — automatic skip, 100% useless.

    User Kary/Other — quick scan for Pfft reply –> automatic skip, 100% useless.
    Any hint of politics (eg word obama/unemployment) –> skip to next comment, could not care less.

    Buh bye.

  143. 143
    Hugh Dominic says:

    By Macro Investor @ 136:

    I see some cognitive dissonance here. You act confident in your decision, yet you post the details to internet strangers for validation. But don’t feel bad. No business decision is easy, otherwise we’d all be rich.

    It is never good to leave a property vacant. I’m pretty sure you know that and perhaps have some emotional attachment to the house. I would recommend selling it and putting the money to work, rather than having a cash drain on your back. Real estate development can be a very good business. A relative of mine made millions starting in his 40s with one house at a time.

    You can be your own GC. The libraries are full of books on the subject. But Seattle/king is the wrong place to start for all the reasons you’ve outlined.

    Good luck.

    Those are great points. Let’s see if I can explain a cognitive model that makes sense with how I feel about it. I might not succeed – I might just be wrong. That’s why I’m posting about it publicly. I use a Socratic method to learn, which is to assert a position and see how it survives challenge.

    I think the key is not to look at it as one would typically view a real estate asset. The hard value of real estate is fairly easy to deal with, but what I’m interested here is the (ethereal) option value. I’m not aware of conventional wisdom on this view.

    Suppose you could buy an option on a 6,000 sq ft. Seattle view lot at today’s price. The option never expires but has to be renewed for an annual fee of 1% of the current year property value. How would you price and value that option?

    That is a baseline value to me. It is not obvious what that the price of such an option should be. One would think the option should cost a fraction of the price of the asset itself. In my case it cost me the value of the alternative use of the money that I have tied up in the house. (I had it invested in nationally traded REITs actually. The loss of the REIT is literally the income and appreciation I’m not getting now.)

    There is one problem. Such Seattle-lot options do not exist. They are not bought and sold on a market. There’s no “generic 6,000 in-city view lot” option; nor is there a specific lot that is being offered that way. The amount of my time that it takes/took to research and locate a lot that fits my criteria are a huge expense. If I want such an option I have to create one. So in essence I did, and the scarcity adds further value to it.

    I guess I have two side points:

    1. It’s a big shame that Seattle policy makes it so difficult to put this unit into the housing pool. I bought it for the option, although of course I’d be willing to put it into use. But the burdens that come with the income stream make it net out a wash, or worse, in this scenario. The city has decided that the social benefit of its regulations, taxes, and policies are greater than the social benefit of adding this house to our housing pool. Oh well.

    2. Speculators are not all crazy gamblers. An option like this is just a part of a portfolio. Whereas most portfolios are composed of a mix of risk/reward financial assets, this is not purely financial. It’s a part of a lifestyle portfolio to hedge certain of life’s uncertainties also.

    I have no idea how much of our RE market is influenced by this thinking. I would guess not so much.

    And to make sure this post gets attention: Trump! Amirite?

  144. 144

    RE: Hugh Dominic @ 139 – I think there is a way of valuing an annuity that doesn’t expire, but the result of an annuity expiring after 100 years wouldn’t be all that different. The bigger problem would be picking the interest rate to apply, and the somewhat related issues of what to do with inflation and change in asset value.

  145. 145

    RE: Macro Investor @ 138 – Here’s an idea–if you have no idea what I wrote, as you just admitted, then don’t mention me. And in return I won’t mention why I find the handle you’ve chosen yourself so ironic.

    As to politics, this site has been relatively clean given what we’ve gone through the past year and a half. I have an explanation for that, but the explanation would be political. As to unemployment, that is hardly something to ignore on a website that deals with the value of real estate. My discussion of that is somewhat similar to my discussion in years past of the effect of distressed properties on the median. The difference is that was making things seem worse than they were, while the basic unemployment number makes things seem better than they are. And the one is more local, while the employment issue more national.

  146. 146
    wreckingbull says:

    RE: GoHawks @ 129 – That was essentially tried here before. The problem is that threads full of homogeneous content of RE cheerleading and self-congratulatory back slaps is just not that interesting.

    Far more engaging content here, in my opinion.

  147. 147

    RE: Hugh Dominic @ 139

    “Suppose you could buy an option on a 6,000 sq ft. Seattle view lot at today’s price. The option never expires but has to be renewed for an annual fee of 1% of the current year property value. How would you price and value that option?”

    Most contracts need to have an expiration date, but can be extended or renewed. Spec builders who buy lots as their primary business use options all the time via a “non-refundable earnest money deposit”. They enter into an agreement to purchase with an extended close date and forfeit the Earnest Money up front. The forfeit of Earnest Money is the option price.

    Going back to your comment #68 “I paid cash for another home that is in fair shape, but I would like to tear down and replace with a much nicer one. Problem #1: construction costs in Seattle are ridiculously high right now. GC’s are just naming their price to see who takes it. Problem #2: city permitting sucks. The restrictions are Byzantine and the wait times are 9 months. I’m in no hurry as a result.”

    Often the spec builder elicits the assistance of the seller of the lot during the long escrow period to obtain the needed permits by the time they close escrow. Their primary goal is to keep projects in the pipeline so as to have a new one to work on at all times. Helps with crew retention as well.

    The escrow period is usually 6 months to a year and the non-refundable Earnest Money (option price if you will) is $10,000 to $50,000 from what I have seen. The lower amounts are usually a one for one trade out. The higher numbers are usually for small developers who are putting more than one property as replacement for the one that is there. Usually a short plat vs full development process.

    Deerhawke may be able to expound on this further as I don’t run into it as often as he does.

    Generally the spec builder seeks out a lot he wants that has a teardown on it and is NOT for sale. They are not usually operating within an mls environment. Sometimes yes, but usually no. The seller then agrees to sell at a future date as they really weren’t in the market to sell in the first place. They take the non-refundable earnest money and stay in their home until the builder decides whether to buy or not. I have seen extensions be free without a new option price paid. The close date is just extended.

    The most recent one I saw which is not closed yet was $50,000 for 9 months. More often I have seen $10,000 for 6 months. At $10,000 the spec builder may put 6 under contract as “next projects” and stagger the close dates like a bond portfolio. The decision of whether or not to close on all or some is made at a later date. The Earnest Money is a credit at closing if they decide to purchase at the end of the contract timeframe. Since the seller already has the Earnest Money there is no additional cost to forfeit, same as most option situations.

    Done well the spec builder has permits in hand by closing and is ready to start building right after closing. Only the owner can apply for permits so often the option to buy contract includes the seller lending their name to the permit requests.

    Deerhawke? Can you expound on that? I don’t see a lot of it, but all of the ones I have seen have worked pretty much the same way, unless they involve the seller in the full project to be paid after the new house sells. Those have not worked out very well. The spec builders who can’t buy the property up front, but rather pay for the lot after the new house sells, tend to be a bit…I won’t say the word in case you practice that method. :)

  148. 148
    GoHawks says:

    RE: Macro Investor @ 135 – here here! Well said.

  149. 149
    Blurtman says:

    RE: Hugh Dominic @ 139 – Not sure if Black Scholes would help, but check it out.

  150. 150
    Hugh Dominic says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 143 – just to clarify, I’m not an aspiring professional builder. I want to lock in options for a place to live in a dynamic environment.

  151. 151
    pfft says:

    “I agree the politics should stay out of it, and apologize for pointing out the Obama policies which obviously delayed and slowed job growth.”

    nothing could be further from the truth. for example, the stimulus created or saved millions of jobs. the auto bailout did too. you wanted a more friendly to business president like…bush?

  152. 152
    pfft says:

    By Macro Investor @ 138:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 137 – No idea what you wrote…

    Here is how I read bubble comments:

    User Pfft — automatic skip, 100% useless.

    User Kary/Other — quick scan for Pfft reply –> automatic skip, 100% useless.
    Any hint of politics (eg word obama/unemployment) –> skip to next comment, could not care less.

    Buh bye.

    on a housing blog you don’t care about…unemployment. if you do skip over me I don’t care because I don’t even know who you are…

    you’ll get over it.

    btw Seattle’s unemployment rate is 3.9%, which might be why housing prices are increasing so much.

  153. 153
    AJT says:

    Well this just stinks.
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-04/vancouver-housing-tax-pushes-chinese-to-1-million-seattle-homes
    This helps such a small percentage of the Puget Sound population. If you are not going to sell and move or are a landlord it I just don’t see the benefit. I really wish it was constitutional to implement a foreign nonresident tax on home purchases. Sad.

  154. 154
    StupidLifeDecisions says:

    By AJT @ 149:

    Well this just stinks.
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-04/vancouver-housing-tax-pushes-chinese-to-1-million-seattle-homes
    This helps such a small percentage of the Puget Sound population. If you are not going to sell and move or are a landlord it I just don’t see the benefit. I really wish it was constitutional to implement a foreign nonresident tax on home purchases. Sad.

    Is it Washington state’s constitution that won’t allow us to us implement the foreign tax or is it the U.S. constitution? If it’s just state, they should try to do a work around, but as we know, they won’t because they are a lost cause pandering to a voting populace that is also a lost cause.

    Just wait until we get to pay the cost of being a sanctuary city for illegal citizens who are also criminals when federal funding is pulled. 92% of seattle should be pretty stoked about that.

  155. 155
  156. 156
    sfrz says:

    RE: Doug @ 151 – Chinese investors (EB5) may be rethinking all these hotels and multi-use buildings. They need the EB5 Visas to get their green cards for their families. “Now, per an article from the Wall Street Journal, wealthy Chinese real estate investors are admitting that the jig is up in large cities like New York and are running for the hills. With a substantial amount of capacity expected to come online over the next several quarters and a growth cycle that is entering its 8th year, one Chinese real estate investor admits “you get a sense now that it’s peaking.” ”
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-12-02/chinese-developers-rethink-us-real-estate-projects-i-see-dangerus-real-estate-peakin

  157. 157
    Sam Zell says:

    Nice Article Doug. I wonder if there is a free listing section on juwai.com. Anyone familiar with that site? I want to put my house up on there.

  158. 158
    Brian says:

    From the Bloomberg article:

    About half of the homes sold in Seattle’s suburbs are going to Chinese buyers, with many of the transactions requiring the use of interpreters, international banks and multiple escrow deposits, according to Dean Jones, chief executive officer of Realogics Sotheby’s International Realty. That’s up from about 30 percent last year, he said.

    Half of all homes sold in Seattle’s suburbs are going to Chinese buyers? That statistic seems made up and totally unbelievable. Maybe half of the homes over $2m. Otherwise, if they’re buying that many homes across the board then we are setting ourselves up for a massive bubble that will be ugly.

    Regardless, there have just been some significant changes in capital outflow regulations in China that could affect Bloomberg’s dated (2+ months old) Chinese sales and interest level data.

  159. 159
    Mack says:

    Low Seattle housing supply remains a major driver. Judging from RedFin’s real-time data tool, low supply is worse than last year. We’ll see what November and December brings, but this could set the stage for another year of pushing prices out of reach for a lot of buyers.

    If anyone’s interested, here’s a short write up on the current environment, specific to Seattle: Low Housing Supply – Further 2017 Gains?

    The question will be whether the fear of missing out (from rising rates), forces buyers into the market in 2017.

  160. 160
    Eastsider says:

    Vancouver Housing Tax Pushes Chinese to $1 Million Seattle Homes:

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-04/vancouver-housing-tax-pushes-chinese-to-1-million-seattle-homes

    It is never a good idea to make investment or home buying decisions based on such articles. Remember in 2003-2007, it was declared that home prices could only go up. How did that turn out?

  161. 161

    RE: StupidLifeDecisions @ 150 – I’m fairly certain the federal fair housing laws would prevent such a discriminatory tax. The operative term is “national origin.”

    http://www.equalhousing.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/2012-Immigration-Status-FAQ.pdf

  162. 162

    By Eastsider @ 155:

    Vancouver Housing Tax Pushes Chinese to $1 Million Seattle Homes:

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-04/vancouver-housing-tax-pushes-chinese-to-1-million-seattle-homes

    It is never a good idea to make investment or home buying decisions based on such articles. Remember in 2003-2007, it was declared that home prices could only go up. How did that turn out?

    I agree with your point, but not your recollection. Although just outside your timeframe, the October 2002 issue of Money Magazine picked Seattle as one of four cities likely to “burst.”

  163. 163
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 157

    From the cover page of the June 13, 2005 issue of Time magazine – Home $weet Home.

    http://content.time.com/time/covers/0,16641,20050613,00.html

    Seattle was a little late to the party but the nation’s housing markets were booming during that period. It was reflected in magazines and newspapers.

  164. 164

    RE: Eastsider @ 158 – Not clear they were saying real estate would always go up. I know a lot of people were thinking that, and probably some articles suggested that. I remember when we were selling our old house in 2007 a lot of people were questioning that decision because of such thinking.

  165. 165
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 159 – “Not clear they were saying real estate would always go up. ” – Hahaha… how many banks went under because “home prices can only go up”? Enough said.

  166. 166

    RE: Eastsider @ 160 – Agreed, but I was talking about the magazine cover you linked. I’m agreeing with the point that some people thought real estate would only go up. As to the entities’ belief, I would point more to AIG and their products insuring the lender entities against loss.

    That was particularly a belief here in the Seattle area where we went something like 20 years without having a YOY decline in price. Other parts of the country though weren’t so lucky during those years.

  167. 167
    ess says:

    By Doug @ 151:

    Vancouver Housing Tax Pushes Chinese to $1 Million Seattle Homes:

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-04/vancouver-housing-tax-pushes-chinese-to-1-million-seattle-homes

    If true, good news for homeowners.

    I wonder how many of these buyers are needed to make an impact on the local market. How many million dollar houses are actually for sale in the Seattle/East Side area?

    Furthermore, if these buyers do make an impact, I assume that the lower price market will be affect more than the more expensive houses? If true – how many buyers are needed to make an actual impact?

    In addition – wonder what the impact (if any) will be on rents?

    I guess we are all going to have to wait and see. This spring should prove an interesting one for the housing market.

  168. 168
    uwp says:

    RE: ess @ 162

    Well, Ardell put together some stats up above.
    It looks like 580ish $1+ million dollar properties in King County.

  169. 169
    Blurtman says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 160 – In both real and nominal terms, over the long run, RE does indeed go up over time in the USA. In both real and nominal terms, there are short term fluctuations, as we all know.

    http://www.jparsons.net/housingbubble/
    http://www.investopedia.com/articles/mortages-real-estate/11/the-truth-about-the-real-estate-market.asp?lgl=no-ads

  170. 170
    Eastsider says:

    By Blurtman @ 164:

    RE: Eastsider @ 160 – In both real and nominal terms, over the long run, RE does indeed go up over time in the USA. In both real and nominal terms, there are short term fluctuations, as we all know.

    http://www.jparsons.net/housingbubble/
    http://www.investopedia.com/articles/mortages-real-estate/11/the-truth-about-the-real-estate-market.asp?lgl=no-ads

    I agree that RE goes up in nominal term. But in real term? Not so much. I am skeptical about the measurement of inflation rate but that’s another story.

    Yes, prices fluctuate both ways. The past decade proves just that. As I mentioned earlier, I would stay out of this market as fundamentals (income anyone?) do not support current prices.

  171. 171
    ess says:

    By uwp @ 163:

    RE: ess @ 162

    Well, Ardell put together some stats up above.
    It looks like 580ish $1+ million dollar properties in King County.

    Yes – thanks for reminding me of that interesting post.

    The problem with these reports of increased foreign buyers as a result of the Vancouver tax – there are no real hard statistics as to what the numbers really are.

    If there are fifteen new foreign buyers attempting to access the greater Seattle market in that price range as a result of Vancouver’s taxing decision – it probably won’t have an effect on the market. If there are one thousand active foreign buyers with the wherewithal to buy in that price range that are now focusing on Seattle – it will have a greater impact.

    Problem is – no one knows for sure.

  172. 172

    By ess @ 171:

    Problem is – no one knows for sure.

    But that doesn’t stop the press from reporting otherwise.

  173. 173
    Deerhawke says:

    Chinese buyers seem to have focused their energies on the East Side. It seems that every house sold in Aqua Vista and Clyde Hill has a ton of Chinese bidders. There is a definite herd effect.

    On the Seattle side, not so much. You see rich Chinese parents who have a kid at the UW or Seattle U who buy them a new townhouse, or occasionally a new single-family. I don’t really see Chinese buyers as a tremendous factor in the Seattle market yet.

  174. 174
    js says:

    By Deerhawke @ 173:

    Chinese buyers seem to have focused their energies on the East Side.

    Interesting. Maybe this explains the divergent Seattle & Bellevue inventory growth numbers the last two months.

  175. 175
    IT Transplant says:

    By MGSpiffy @ 36:

    What I wish there was solid data for is the sources of money buyers are bringing to the table.

    How many buyers are coming in with a small to modest amount for the down payment, and at what price points are they buying vs those with significant cash to throw at a purchase?

    It seems that if you don’t already have equity from a previous sale, a windfall event (tech co stock?), a variable income source that occasionally pays our massively (finance?) or some other source of a large amount of cash (overseas buyers?), then good chunks of the market are not accessible to people who work ‘regular jobs’ – even the good paying tech ones – but have only recently been able to seriously save up for a down payment.

    To them, and I am one of them, it’s like chasing the sunset. The horizon is moving away faster than we can move. For example, we saved $36,000 of our after-tax dollars last year, but the houses we would like to target have gone up in price more than that. A very modest property that was $360k last year, appreciating in price the 11% YoY mentioned above is now $400k , and the size of a mortgage we would have to take out has gone up despite the furious saving.

    In our specific case, the houses we desire are more in the $550-$700k+ range, so staying put renting has some appeal. But when you rent, you don’t have control. Twice in the last 3 years, the homes (necessary when you have mixed gender kids) we were renting have been sold out from under us, and comparable supply in the same area has been ridiculously tight, unless it has an incredibly high price (or as we like say: play spot the new buyer trying to cover his mortgage payment).

    So that’s why I am curious about the financial makeup of the buyers we’re competing with. Two six-figure tech jobs aren’t cutting it, and it’s not for several other couples we know. Is this a trend that will get worse? seems like it…

    —————

    We are also in the same boat. Me and the wife are in mid 30’s both working in IT making a little over 200K combined but find it hard to buy a house in this crazy market. We are looking for a 2200-2500 Sqft house in the 600-700K range but there is nothing modern move in ready available. Most of the houses that we see need kitchen makeover, new bathrooms etc and are priced in high 700s or more. We are planning to rent for another year or two. If the prises keep on going up, we will be moving to VA, NC or TX where you have plenty of good houses to choose from in the 300-500K range and IT jobs pay 6 figure salaries.

    Before others jump in and start giving me lessons on saving…. I had a Bachelors degree in Arts, it came with a lot of good memories but no job and a good size student loan. So I had to go back to school and get another bachelors degree in Science, the one that is actually of use and got me my job. I paid up the student loans for both degrees, I drive a 5 year old car that is paid in full and live in a one bedroom apartment to save more money for down payment. We have more than 20% available for the down payment now.

    But is that 2200 Sq ft townhouse in Issaquah/Sammamish worth 850K, I don’t think so ;)
    https://www.redfin.com/WA/Issaquah/4634-E-Lake-Sammamish-Pkwy-SE-98029/home/109499578/nwmls-1049886

  176. 176
    Blurtman says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 173 – In Sammamish that certainly seems to be the case. And frankly, except for the dog walkers, the only folks out for a routine evening stroll are the Chinese home buyers. (And I mean recently from China, wearing Mao suit type clothing, etc.) They are very friendly, and seem to be good neighbors.

  177. 177
    ess says:

    By Deerhawke @ 173:

    Chinese buyers seem to have focused their energies on the East Side. It seems that every house sold in Aqua Vista and Clyde Hill has a ton of Chinese bidders. There is a definite herd effect.

    On the Seattle side, not so much. You see rich Chinese parents who have a kid at the UW or Seattle U who buy them a new townhouse, or occasionally a new single-family. I don’t really see Chinese buyers as a tremendous factor in the Seattle market yet.

    If there is a concentration of foreign buyers in one or two areas of the East Side, I wonder how far away the market is affected by the competition, if at all?

  178. 178

    RE: ess @ 176

    It’s not as simple as that. I can’t post the data because it is a layer deeper than public info. But I can tell you that not all Chinese buyers pay all cash and not all cash buyers are Chinese. I can’t tell you how many offers were Chinese, but the buyers who “won” the bidding are clearly not over-weighted by all cash foreign money from any one Country.

    I agree with Deerhawke generally as to Eastside vs Seattle and UW students, etc. , but the UW student issue is anecdotal at best.

    I don’t agree with Kary that all persons in other countries have the same protections under our Constitution and Bill of Rights as U.S. citizens do. With Ben Carson heading up HUD it will be interesting if this issue gets challenged. Under the new regime it is highly unlikely that U.S. Citizens will be taking a back seat to foreign investment, as Kary seems to think is not only appropriate but a right of all persons under the sun and not just in the U.S. There is no way on God’s Green Earth that Ben Carson and Donald Trump are going to pull “a HUD” on that foreign tax issue.

    Suffice it to say that unless you are counting Chinese people who live and work here, and why would you, Chinese foreign money is not influencing the market. Not because they don’t make offers…but because they don’t always win when there are multiple offers.

    When you see people in your neighborhood you really have no way of knowing if they came from China or Seattle or Renton. All you know is they are now your new neighbors. :) There does not seem to be more Chinese buyers on a percentage basis than there are Chinese people in the area. In fact I don’t think a Census will tell you that as I doubt they break up “Asian” into sub-categories, and Asian includes a LOT more people than just “Chinese”.

    I can see how many bidding wars ended up with a cash buyer and the name of the new owner. I would think most anyone can get that info, including a news reporter.

  179. 179
    Blurtman says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 177 -“When you see people in your neighborhood you really have no way of knowing if they came from China or Seattle or Renton.” That is utterly ridiculous.

  180. 180

    By Ardell DellaLoggia @ 177:

    I don’t agree with Kary that all persons in other countries have the same protections under our Constitution and Bill of Rights as U.S. citizens do.

    Undeterred by past mistakes, Ardell is expressing legal opinions again.

    FYI, I didn’t mention anything about the Constitution. I mentioned the Fair Housing Act, which is statutory. Assuming the Trump administration wouldn’t act, I’m not sure if there’s a private right of action under that act for discrimination, but I don’t see why a foreign buyer or buyers (or even any sellers) couldn’t bring an action to have a state or local tax statute declared unconstitutional.

  181. 181

    By Blurtman @ 178:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 177 -“When you see people in your neighborhood you really have no way of knowing if they came from China or Seattle or Renton.” That is utterly ridiculous.

    Birthplace isn’t necessarily the issue, or at least I hope it isn’t for those leaning towards racism. People can actually be born in other countries and have legal residency or even US citizenship. I hope no one here is claiming that naturalized US citizens should be taxed.

  182. 182
    Eastsider says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 179:

    …but I don’t see why a foreign buyer or buyers (or even any sellers) couldn’t bring an action to have a state or local tax statute declared unconstitutional.

    Really? You really think so? SMH.

  183. 183

    The November numbers are out. About 7 more active listings than last year, but also about 500 more sales, so more inventory has been coming on the market and then getting grabbed up. Median and mean are both about $50,000 higher than last year.

    Numbers from NWMLS sources but not guaranteed. They were also quickly scanned, so I might have misread them.

  184. 184

    By Eastsider @ 181:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 179:

    …but I don’t see why a foreign buyer or buyers (or even any sellers) couldn’t bring an action to have a state or local tax statute declared unconstitutional.

    Really? You really think so? SMH.

    Sometimes statutes limit private rights of action or even court review/jurisdiction. I doubt that’s the case here, but not something I’ve looked at, so that’s the way I expressed my opinion.

  185. 185
    ARDELL says:

    RE: Blurtman @ 178

    I think you misunderstood me. I’m saying you have no idea if they moved to your neighborhood from another local neighborhood. They may have been here for decades. My grandmother came here from Italy when she was 19 and didn’t speak English when she passed at age 81. That they might not speak English well has no bearing on the foreign tax issue.

  186. 186
    ess says:

    Speaking of litigation regarding taxing foreigners when buying property, I read that an action has been brought in British Columbia attempting to have the 15% tax overturned. Furthermore, there is grumbling that Americans and Mexicans residing in Canada with proper employment documents should not be subjected to the tax because of NAFTA. I have no idea about that theory. Should be interesting to see how that action progresses. Will have to ask my in laws when I go up there for Christmas. Glad there wasn’t a tax on foreigners marrying Canadian brides………. didn’t have much money back then.

    As to any potential legislation limiting foreign investment in US property, or subjecting foreigners to an additional tax – who knows? Not to be too cynical about the law, but there is always a legal theory or something implied (in the penumbra – to paraphrase one Supreme Court opinion) available if a desired result is needed to be reached.

  187. 187
    Ross says:

    By Blurtman @ 169:

    RE: Eastsider @ 160 – In both real and nominal terms, over the long run, RE does indeed go up over time in the USA. In both real and nominal terms, there are short term fluctuations, as we all know.

    http://www.jparsons.net/housingbubble/
    http://www.investopedia.com/articles/mortages-real-estate/11/the-truth-about-the-real-estate-market.asp?lgl=no-ads

    There’s evidence that real estate tracks wage inflation in the long run:
    See the “Herengracht index”, which tracks real estate in a section of Amsterdam for 350 years and basically find that housing prices tracks wage inflation.

    http://digitalarchive.maastrichtuniversity.nl/fedora/get/guid:cda347a3-7fdf-426e-99a4-1a2c30717764/ASSET1

    Or an easier read in the NYT
    http://www.nytimes.com/2006/03/05/magazine/this-very-very-old-house.html

    Data from the 70s until now is not a long term enough view, as housing prices can deviate from the trendline for 50 year periods.

  188. 188
    Macro Investor says:

    RE: Hugh Dominic @ 143

    I like your socratic method. I use it on other sites to test some of my investment ideas.

    The relative I mentioned used 5-year options to give himself plenty of time to make sure engineering, permitting and construction could be done profitably. The cost of the option was around 10% of the purchase price. Basically, it is just a sales agreement with a long close date. The amount of cash up front is what ever you and the seller care to agree on.

    Your idea is fine given that your opportunity cost is not large. In such a strong seller’s market, you probably didn’t have much choice. Optioning works better in weak markets, where properties are sitting without offers. Why should they give an inch in Seattle where buyers are bidding up the price of any junk? Your cost will probably end up being similar. If you decide to bail, you’ll have spent about 10% on sales expenses, plus the taxes/insurance/maintenance.

    The option (if you can get it) is really nice because you can see the final appreciation before you even trigger the closing. Actually, you can skip the closing and sales costs just by assigning the contract to a new buyer.

    Good luck. View property is rare, so I hope it works out.

  189. 189

    RE: ess @ 185 – I wonder if the tax would apply to me? Per one of the articles on moving to Canada if Trump was elected, I apparently have a leg up getting in because I have a parent who was born in Canada.

  190. 190
    mkh says:

    Saw this last night: http://imgur.com/gallery/HvgVt

    Affordable Seattle housing indeed.

  191. 191
    js says:

    By Deerhawke @ 173:

    Chinese buyers seem to have focused their energies on the East Side. .

    For the 3rd month in a row, the inventory numbers look a lot different in Seattle than Bellevue:

    YoY SFH Inventory for Nov, Oct, Sept:
    Seattle +13.54%, +7.96%, +21.66%
    Eastside -12.10%, -14.41%, -5.22%

    This is starting to look like more than a blip. Has inventory already turned the corner in Seattle?

  192. 192
    Blurtman says:

    RE: ARDELL @ 184 – PC gibberish. You can know locally by actually talking to people, a novel concept, to be sure.

  193. 193

    By Blurtman @ 189:

    RE: ARDELL @ 184 – PC gibberish. You can know locally by actually talking to people, a novel concept, to be sure.

    First, I would point out Ardell mentioned they may not speak English, so I don’t know what you think you’re going to determine with your “talking to people.”

    Second, as I have mentioned in the past, I have had buyer clients obviously born in foreign countries. I have had no need to ask them about their residency status or whether they have become naturalized US citizens, and thus I don’t know their status even today.

    Yes, you could obviously ask, but in most contexts that would be somewhat rude and they’d be under no obligation to answer.

    The only time residency is relevant in a real estate transaction is for sellers, due to FIRPTA. There my practice is to confirm with all listing clients their residency/citizenship status, because there is a reason to do so.

  194. 194
    Screenname345 says:

    @js 188 – Altos research continues to show inventory dropping in Seattle. I haven’t seen a listing comparable to my house since last March/April. Haha. Nuts.

  195. 195
    ess says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 187:

    RE: ess @ 185 – I wonder if the tax would apply to me? Per one of the articles on moving to Canada if Trump was elected, I apparently have a leg up getting in because I have a parent who was born in Canada.

    They tell me Canadians are nice people. Perhaps they can provide a discount on any tax?

  196. 196
    Blurtman says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 190 – My remarks have to do with neighbor-to-neighbor conversations, not with realtors trying not to offend. That would include conversations with recently arrived neighbors from China as well as their neighbors who know about their circumstances. As many of the families that I have encountered live in multi-generational households, it is not unusual for the kids, who in may circumstances had their home purchased by their parents, to be fluent in the English language.

  197. 197

    RE: Blurtman @ 193
    IOWs Blurtman

    They are rich elite with no skin [job] in the game, assuming they’re foreign nationals with temporary green cards and not visa “overstays” [IAs]. And they were lucky they didn’t end up in a Chinese or American prison doing it.

  198. 198
    redmondjp says:

    RE: Blurtman @ 193 – Bingo. Exact same situation in my neighborhood. I actually go out of my way to meet my neighbors and to talk to them.

  199. 199

    By redmondjp @ 195:

    RE: Blurtman @ 193 – Bingo. Exact same situation in my neighborhood. I actually go out of my way to meet my neighbors and to talk to them.

    Well I do too, and we actually have had some people here that were possibly foreign born. I’ve yet to ask a single one of my neighbors their residency or citizenship status. I think that would be extremely odd. Also, with recent events I would think people might be concerned!

    And in any case, that’s going to be a very limited amount of data.

  200. 200
    Hugh Dominic says:

    RE: Macro Investor @ 188 – Thanks for checking my thinking. I agree, they are functionally similar. The downside risk for my option is unfortunately greater than 10%, since in theory I could lose 100% of the asset value if the market collapses.

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